Mock Draft Monday: Different Perspectives On The Draft

Let's take a look at various ways to select players in the draft.

I sometimes have a draft crush.  Years ago I loved Justin Simmons and Lucas Niang as third round picks along with Creed Humphrey in the second round last year.  Then again, I really liked Carl Bradford.  As an aside, when the Packers not only bypass my crush but also select a different player who plays the exact same position (see Josh Myers instead of Creed Humphrey), I have to summon what maturity I have to give the "wrong" player a fair shake.  So far this year, I do not really have a draft crush.

I suppose for a player to truly qualify as a "crush" one should be willing to select him at least a full round or two earlier than where the "pundits" have slotted his value.  Back in 2016, there was a lively debate in the comments section over D.J. Reader.  I liked Reader in the fifth round while another poster believed that the Packers should select him much earlier.  I noticed when Ted Thompson selected Trevor Davis with the 163rd pick while Reader lasted until pick 166. 

I didn't say anything because I had never heard of Trevor Davis.  The Packers had selected Davante Adams, Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Janis in 2014 and added Ty Montgomery in 2015, so I spent my time looking at other positions. 

Another reason was because the Packers had already selected Kenny Clark and Dean Lowry earlier in the 2016 draft, so ignoring Reader made "sense" in a way.  This illustrates a number of adages such as staying true to one's board versus drafting for need or thinking that having made multiple selections at one position it is time to address other needs.  

Most adages have truth to them but it seems like every one has an opposing adage that contradicts the first one.  If the Packers select two wide receivers by the end of the second round, should they select a third receiver later?  What about a fourth receiver?  Surely at some point one reaches overkill, and the team does have other needs at multiple positions.  Lazard, Cooper, Cobb, and Amari Rodgers seem like locks, so from a roster construction perspective one might decide that enough is enough.  Looking back, I don't know: Mike Daniels, Clark, Reader, Letroy Guion, and Lowry would have made for a deep defensive line, but they still had Datone Jones, Mike Pennel, along with Price and Ringo who seemed like they perhaps could play in the NFL.  Then again, Jones, Pennel and Guion were gone by 2017, which seems like a parallel to this year as some current wide receivers on the team seem likely to be gone in 2023.   

The best way to evaluate a draft is to watch film.  Most of us do not have time to watch the film on hundreds of players and some of us don't have the skill to do it.  I usually do not do more than watch some film on a bunch of players at positions of need, augmented by combine and pro day results.  I can remember in 2014 creating a board of the top ten or fifteen tight ends and safeties (and doing the safeties again in 2019).  One problem is that even people who get paid to evaluate prospects disagree about their value, often enough they radically disagree.  General Managers who manage to be one to two standard deviations better than their peers at drafting often get in the hall of fame.

Take a look at this link to Jack Lichtenstein's NFL Consensus Draft Board.  It shows how 14 different sites ranked players.  I presue that all of these sites watched lots of film.  Devonte Wyatt ranges all the way from 11th (The Ringer) to 69th (Walter Football).  [Wyatt might be completely off some teams' boards due to some off-the-field allegations.]  TE Jason Wydermyer ranges from 62nd (Draft Buzz) to 283rd (Sports Illustrated).  [Some of these sites may have updated their rankings.]  Players move up and down, sometimes bases on conversations the authors have had with scouts, by public statements of team officials, (which comes with the caveat that some teams may be putting out misinformation), or because they worked out at a late pro day, and often enough for no apparent reason.  I like to use these consensus boards and then cross-check it with the CHTV's draft guide to see our evaluations and to see if the player is a match for the Packers' scheme and what the team likes in a prospect.

I also look at when it seems necessary to use higher picks for certain positions.  For example, between 2006 and 2018, only 10 centers were selected in the first round and 10 more in the second round.  In 12 of those 13 drafts, no more than 2 centers were taken in the first two rounds, and in two seasons no centers were taken until after pick 65.  Mike Pouncey was the highest center (picked 15th in 2010) during that time.  This seems to me to be a function of positional value.  Timo Riske's graph and table (link below) shows that centers are simply paid the least and thus are not deemed worthy of extremely high picks.  

According to this graph by Timo Riske of PFF, centers taken around 15th to 18th have a 30% chance of being elite and a 90% chance of being above average.  According to the graph, a center taken 62nd has a 12% chance of being elite, roughly a 35% chance of being a second tier or better player, and almost a 50% chance of being at least average.

A wide receiver taken around 24th has a roughly 37% chance of being elite, perhaps a 67% of being 2nd tier or better and about a 75% chance of being average or better.  A receiver taken at the top of the fifth round appears to have a tiny chance at being elite (under 5%), a 10% chance of being a second tier or better player, and a 30% chance of being average or better.  

The graph suggests that it is difficult to select elite edge players and safeties, but getting an average or better safety can be done later in the draft.

Mr. Riske also tweeted this surplus value analysis of draft picks taken between 2006 and 2018.  Care should be taken be when analyzing this data because some positions seem a little skewed to me due to high miss rates combined with high positional value.

PREDICT THE PICKS:

One of our readers went to NFL.com and put together a group called CHTV Regulators (password GPG) where readers can try to correctly predict the draft order of the players for the first round.  Everyone is welcome to participate.  It is just for fun, so no prizes are involved. See how you fare against other CHTV readers.  Go to the link below and follow the prompts.  If you do not have an account with NFL.com, you will have to create one, but it is easy: just a working email, your name and date of birth.  Thanks to Birddoguni for setting this up.

https://predictpick.nfl.com/group/3960  

    

 

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5 points

Comments (90)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
BirdDogUni's picture

April 18, 2022 at 11:19 pm

It was my pleasure Tgr. We only have 4 brave souls entered so far, but I suspect with your bringing it to the attention of the masses, we'll have a bit better turn out now. It's fun when you have 20 - 30 participants and bragging rights/street creds go quite a ways. ; )

I have like 55 draft crushes this year. 15 are WRs... ; ) I won't bore everyone listing them, but suffice it to say if Gutey drafts any of them I have a Mock Draft to back it up. Lol

9 more days. Will be fun to see heads explode if Gutey doesn't take a WR in the first round, but the 20th Anniversary is probably a good time to go ahead and draft a 1st Round WR for AR. (Least Gutey can do...) ; )

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 18, 2022 at 11:39 pm

You can cross WR off the shopping list...

PFN

22. Devin Lloyd LB Utah
28. Christian Watson WR North Dakota State
53. Boye Mafe EDGE Minnesota
59. George Pickens WR Georgia
92. Jelani Woods TE Virginia
132. Tyquan Thornton WR Baylor
140. Danny Gray WR SMU
171. Eyioma Uwazurike DT Iowa State
228. Tariq Carpenter S Georgia Tech
249. Ryan Van Demark OT Connecticut
258. Velus Jones Jr. WR Tennessee

Might have gone overboard on the WRs, but you also have to remember Lazard and Watkins are on 1 year deals, and Cobb should retire. Besides, STs and injuries can happen, so even though we spent a great deal of capital on WRs, we shouldn't need to worry about the position for at least 3, maybe 4 years. Plenty of speed and MaLF wanted MOR SPEED. Lol

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ThunderFromDownunder's picture

April 19, 2022 at 02:13 am

Velus jones Jr is my crush , how long has it been ( Desmond Howard )
since we had a great return man .

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2022 at 02:34 am

Velus isn't quite a crush, but I think he'd be a blast to watch overall. As a note, there have been a ton of guys posting incredible 10-yard dash numbers. I mean numbers that are as good or better than Percy Harvin's 1.47 ten yard dash number. Harvin, Cordarelle Patterson, they weren't great WRs but they could be fun to watch. If Jones can play WR, that would be great.

Velus ran a 1.46 second ten yard dash at 204 pounds. That is some serious acceleration. However, he returned kickoffs but just one punt return (albeit for 18 yards or something). His 7.32 three-cone is a concern.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 19, 2022 at 03:20 am

Where did you find a 3-cone time for Velus. PFF hasn't updated their pro day times and I didn't find one when I searched Twitter. He looks shifter than that. Bukowski had him down as not running one.

https://twitter.com/Peter_Bukowski/status/1501044082319278085?t=sX9SrB6-...

Bo Melton is considered the same type of player, not quite as good a returner but a little better receiver. He ran a 6.81 3-cone at Rutgers' pro day. He's a lighter at 190 lbs.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2022 at 03:44 am

draftscout.com.

I am having a hard time finding another site with a 3 cone or a 10 yard dash number for Velus.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 19, 2022 at 01:24 pm

PFF's and PFN's pro day reports have been a bit of a disappointment this year. PFF hasn't updated theirs since April 6th and were missing a lot of them before that.

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murf7777's picture

April 19, 2022 at 07:56 am

TGR, take a look at Britain Covey for punt and KO returns. He’s exciting and can be had late 7th round or UDFA. Might play a little gadget as well, but don’t expect him to be much of a WR.

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stockholder's picture

April 19, 2022 at 06:49 am

My concern is Pickens. I just don't think he's durable enough. Not to mention his Attitude. Much rather have Pierce.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 19, 2022 at 07:08 am

I think Pierce and Pickens are VERY different players. Pickens has the talent to be a great all-around receiver. Pierce has the potential to be a solid X like MVS...but that's it. He looks SO stiff and unnatural as a receiver. He catches the ball, but it's always with two hands while jumping up and facing the QB. He rarely catches in stride over his shoulder the way you want an X to exhibit. I'd risk a 59...MAYBE a 53...on him, but I suspect there would be someone I like more, still available.
I do worry about Pickens hot dog personality, but he might very well be a Pro-Bowl WR--I don't see any possibility of that for Pierce.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2022 at 07:46 am

I listened to the Pack a day with Ben Fennell. Mr. Fennell mentioned that Pickens turns it on and off. Fennell liked Pickends when all systems were go and his immaturity was in check. He also had reservations about Pierce. I don't want to write too much more in case I am not remembering exactly what he said about Pierce.

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murf7777's picture

April 19, 2022 at 07:58 am

I’m also concerned about Pickens attitude. Doesn’t seem like a Packer’s type of player. Pass

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Leatherhead's picture

April 19, 2022 at 08:21 am

I like Pickens. I think he'd be a steal at #53. His attitude doesn't concern me much, and frankly, we could use a guy like him. He's physical, he's demonstrative, he's an attention seeker. I like it.

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 19, 2022 at 09:10 am

As long as MaLF and the Coaches can temper that demonstrative attitude and impress upon him he can't "hurt" the team with it, I think he'd be a great addition to the WR room. As long as he doesn't want to be a "Gang Banger" I see no problem with a bit of attitude.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 19, 2022 at 12:58 pm

Zackly, BDU

Look, you add a guy like Pickett, it definitely involves some forethought. He could fail if you don't do it right.

First, look at who else is in the WR room. Cobb and Watkins. You've also got Lazard and Amari Rodgers. And the other rookie, Burks, is kind of different as far as the kind of character he shows. So Pickett would have some examples around him as far as how to take care of his business.

Secondly, nobody's expecting him to be a savior here. He'll have to prove he belongs on the field. Nothing changes an attitude like not getting to play in the game with everybody else. and it doesn't matter if we're talking football or anything else.

His BEST CASE scenario, IMO, would be just staying healthy and getting some snaps at WR, maybe a target or two. He'd have to show he can get guys blocked, of course. Then, if he does a good job with that, we start giving him more snaps and targets.

Off the field, make sure this guy has an appropriate support network. Nutrition, training, financial consulting, real estate assistance. The team or he could hire a personal assistant to help him adult. You could hire a driver/bodyguard/counselor to keep an eye on him if you had to.

I believe the Packers could make it work with Pickens, and I think he'd be a steal in the second round, maybe at #53.

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LambeauPlain's picture

April 19, 2022 at 01:29 pm

Pickens HC called him "uncoachable". Big yellow flag.

It would be fun, however to see his reaction when Rodgers chews him out or glares at him!

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2022 at 02:05 am

APC linked to this consensus board I have linked below. I think I liked the consensus board I posted better since it displayed the work by listing a rankings of each draft site whereas this one just presents the results. Looking at past years, 2019 seems pretty accurate at the mocking save for a few guys like Chauncey Gardner-Johnson lasting all the way until the 4th round. 2018 isn't bad at predicting the draft order but the player evals were off. I see Equanimeous St. Brown ranked 75th and Allen Lazard ranked 107th.

I suppose one could simply look to see which players left the Packers who played snaps and try to replace them with draft picks. That gets one to looking at prospects who play specific positions. Still, the individual evaluation part is so important.

BDU, you won't be surprised to learn that Bmore posted the tweets by Riske.

IIRC, RC loved Reader. Have to say he was right.

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2022/consensus-big-board...

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 19, 2022 at 07:48 pm

IIRC - A bunch of us were clamoring for Reader... Too bad ESB looked like Tarzan but, played like Jane.

Going to be an exciting draft. Looking for some huge surprises this year.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2022 at 02:25 am

This NFL.com article ranks the GMs. Can't get it to go with a full link due to anti-spamming rules.

In the past I have looked at Nth player at that position taken. I would look to see how many OTs or WRs had already been taken. However, I don't think that analysis works well. It seems like 25 to 35 WRs are selected and 4 to 7 of them turn out to be good, with a couple being elite. And my bar for "good" isn't too stiff: 250 yds in the rookie year and then 500 yards per season. So that is 3750 receiving yards for a WR selected in 2014. In 2014, 34 WRs were drafted. 8 met the good standard, with 5 being very good to elite: Adams, Evans, Beckham, Landry, and Cooks. None of the good were drafted after round 3 but usually there are one or a couple of outliers who get drafted later, like Tyreek Hill in the 5, Antonio Brown in the 6th, etc.

nfl.com/news/nfl-gm-power-rankings-bills-brandon-beane-sean-mcdermott-rams-les-snead-top-the-

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Leatherhead's picture

April 19, 2022 at 01:18 pm

The Bell Curve asserts itself.

8 out of 34 Good, 8 out of 34 Bad, the rest are average-ish. Since ALL of the Goods were drafted in the Top 100, I'd be interested in knowing how that subgroup distributes.

In other words, if you drafted a WR in the top 80 or so, what are the chances that you'll be drafting a WR who will meet the bar for "good"? It appears that it's better than 50%, but still far short of 80%. So that would mean that if we drafted two guys in that subgroup, the probability that at least one of them is "good" is pretty high?

Well....then that just strengthens my belief that we should try to get two of these guys.

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 19, 2022 at 08:24 pm

"Besides the Jordan Love year, "Gutey" has been an excellent drafter, starting with his very first pick on the job: Jaire Alexander in the No. 18 slot back in 2018."

I take exception to that. We don't know if the Jordan Love pick is a good, bad, or ugly pick until he plays at least a season or two.

If Gutey were to pull off a wicked draft-day trade, we might not find out if Jordan Love will be a good "pick" until we find ourselves playing against him in the future.

The only way Gutey trades Love is if he gets what he wants for him, and I suspect what he wants is a 1st round pick next year. IDK if that will happen, but it will sure be exciting if it does.

Go Gutey Go!

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 19, 2022 at 05:54 am

Enjoyed this article very much TGR, and I do a lot of mock simulators for fun; however, I never really got into predicting the entire first round. So, while doing that prediction might be a LITTLE fun, what I really like is "playing Packers GM." By that, I mean creating my own Big Board, so I can say "Well, here's who I would have drafted" without cheating.

With that in mind, TGR, maybe you could post an article like this that asks us draftniks to post our personal Big Boards (one board only per username!) We can then even look back in future years at how we did. I'd suggest a 64 player Big Board, but we could have a 32 option.

BTW, my crushes for this year (and I agree that the best definition is players I rate more highly than most of the websites/magazines, etc.): Leo Chenal, Khalil Shakir, Kyren Williams, Jelani Woods, and Bo Melton. Christian Watson WAS one, but he has risen on lists into "where I liked him" so he doesn't fit the parameter. There are a TON of guys I love but who are ranked close to where I see them, so I won't bother listing them here, but you'll see them on my Big Board.

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2022 at 07:22 am

That sounds like a good idea. There is another Monday left before the draft so I will look to incorporate big boards specific to Packer nation in the final Mock Draft Monday article.

1 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 19, 2022 at 02:25 pm

Great! Thanks!

0 points
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glblank24's picture

April 19, 2022 at 07:23 am

Christian Watson and Leo Chenal for 2022. Should we get a consensus and start a campaign. I am a Shareholder.

3 points
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murf7777's picture

April 19, 2022 at 08:16 am

Chenal is an interesting prospect. Big and athletic. I’m concerned he is just a thumper, meaning awesome at tackling and occasional blitz, but will be a liability in pass coverage. I would be very concerned taking him over others in the first 60. Now, if he is there at the end of the 3rd I’d be hard pressed to not take him. Again thou, if Dulcich is there, I’d take him.

4 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

April 19, 2022 at 01:09 pm

How is Barnes in pass pro? Barry doesn't have him do it, because he can't. And at times in defending the run he is borderline terrible in his misreads and getting glued to blockers.

Can Chenal be effective in pass pro? Maybe. But Leonard didn't have him doing it much because of his abundant pass rushing ability, mostly up the middle. Barry, the supposed LB whisperer wouldn't either.

He would be a HUGE upgrade over Barnes who is a serviceable backup.

Oh, BTW, here is what Leo did with his "occasional blitzes": 4 sacks, 4 QB hits, 20 QB hurries, and a pair of forced fumbles in addition to his 87 tackles even after missing 2 full games due to covid protocols.

Chenal runs a 4.5, jumped 40 inches and broad jumped 10 feet 8 inches to display his explosive ability and also benches 400 lbs! Only one of 9 Badgers who could do it last year.

1 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

April 19, 2022 at 01:29 pm

Barnes actually defended 54 targets last year. He wasn't great at it but there were a lot of NFL LBs that were worse.

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LambeauPlain's picture

April 19, 2022 at 01:42 pm

Per NFL.com, last year he actually defended just 4 passes, and 0 in 2020. What was the QB rating and completions for his assigned receiver? I think it was very high and the reason he mostly came off the field on passing downs.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2022 at 08:15 pm

Terminology is slightly confusing. Barnes allowed 47 recs on 54 attempts (87%) for 8.7 yds/rec and 7.6 yards per attempt. Not very good. He did successfully defend or knock down 4 passes, and three more attempts were incomplete.

It isn't the worst yards per attempt I have seen.

0 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 19, 2022 at 02:22 pm

Yep. I still believe he'll go early in the second round AT THE LATEST.

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greengold's picture

April 20, 2022 at 09:33 pm

I’m firmly against both, especially for where people want to take Watson, but, have fun with that.

Watson’s going to have a rude awakening facing tough, fast NFL CBs and Safeties with solid ball skills.

I don’t see Chenal having anything close to the success he had v. the run in college, and he didn’t, couldn’t cover anyone. Badger fan, but unwilling to support putting that onto this Packers team.

Why would anybody want a known, complete coverage liability next to Campbell?

0 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 20, 2022 at 11:08 pm

Now, Troy Anderson is a different story... ; )

1 points
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MarkinMadison's picture

April 19, 2022 at 07:33 am

I think you're being generous when you say that "some" of us don't have the skill to evaluate film. I think I do o.k. looking at OL or DL. And that is all I think I do o.k. at - for the rest I'm as much of a hack as anyone, and I've seen so many people here who are so convinced of themselves over the years be proven wrong that I just don't really believe that 90% of us know that damn much. And even for those positions where I'm more comfortable someone like Andy Herman is probably going to school the crap out of me. Part of what makes it confusing is, as you noted, the variations in the "experts." This makes it harder to pick up for those of us who didn't play or coach at the college level. But projections will always be more art than science.

Correctly predicting the first round would really require me to study the needs and styles of every team. I'll take a shot, but I'm not going to actually put in that amount of study. I really only care about the Packers.

This month is the first time I've tried a mock draft simulator. I've mostly been using PFF because I find their screens easier to navigate. Their big board is a bit off in my opinion.

Things mock draft simulators have taught me. (1) The lack of top-end QB talent makes predicting the first round harder than ever this year. (2) There are potentially great players dropping potentially as far as the third round this year so it feels like a good year to trade back if you can pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd rounder. (3) There are a plethora of quality tackle, edge and wide receiver prospects - someone will get pushed down to the Packers for some reason. Some choices will be easier than others. (4) If draft grades are stupid, mock draft grades are entirely pointless. (5) Corollary: if you really want a player grab him or you will lose him.

Other things I've figured out: Zach Tom screams "Packer" to me.

2 points
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Leatherhead's picture

April 19, 2022 at 08:25 am

I learned how to study film by sitting in a cramped office with a half dozen other coaches who had a combined 100 years of coaching HS football. Several years of that.

But I know that I'm a long way short of these guys who do it in the pros, 24/7, for a living.

Try the PFN simulator, I think it's easier to manage.

4 points
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MarkinMadison's picture

April 19, 2022 at 03:07 pm

And that still puts you a dozen miles ahead of me sir.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2022 at 08:17 pm

Agreed. I got better but I have a friend who routinely pointed out stuff to me on the OL and DL, and hell, most other positions as well. Haven't watched film with him in several years, now but I probably learned enough to be dangerous, like my car repair/plumbing repair skills.

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Dragon5's picture

April 19, 2022 at 09:02 am

No crush here...but I have a hard pass on London if he slips. Injury prone 7 life path. Love the warrior spirit, but not interested in investing high draft capital into a WR that recklessly relies on high-pointing balls to make catches and then, with no elusive step, gets smashed around like a pinball in a pinball game. Recipe for disaster at the next level. Leo rules spine / spinal column too.

Jets, Seahawks, Bears, each with two high 2nds...potential key trade back candidates.

6 points
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Collector8532's picture

April 19, 2022 at 11:12 am

My draft crush is Jalen Pitre. I've been wanting them to get a hybrid DB/LB to play in their dime scheme for a while, and he is the best in this draft.

I'm also a big fan of Perrion Winfrey. He is a wrecking ball on the defensive front.

I like some of the later round receivers as much as the first round guys. Makai Polk, Isaiah Weston, and Alec Pierce would all look really good in green and gold.

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LambeauPlain's picture

April 19, 2022 at 01:17 pm

I like Pitre too. Dave Aranda had him playing slot CB most of the time and he is a potential "star" Barry would love in his Nickel and Dime.

Winfrey too...wrecking ball captures his game video.

1 points
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davekenya's picture

April 19, 2022 at 12:59 pm

...related to the 'big board' idea...

it would be interesting -- AFTER the draft -- but before training camp -- to have readers post their list of who the Packers should have drafted at each of Green Bay's actual draft positions (no trading up or back allowed -- just stick with the spot GB actually drafted from). Readers can stick with who GB actually selected or choose from who else was available at that draft slot time.

This can be held onto and then readers can see how their picks for GB would've actually done in the upcoming year(s)...and that 'retro' list could be posted -- to see which reader(s) were most accurate in the players they chose for GB to draft.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 19, 2022 at 02:30 pm

Except that's totally cheating. Using 20-20 hindsight about when a player was drafted is not at ALL the way the GMs have to do it. That's why I think the only fair method is to post a Big Board BEFORE the draft.

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Turophile's picture

April 19, 2022 at 01:12 pm

Know what you are saying about draft crushes TGR.
This year WR Alec Pierce is one of mine. I've taken him in mocks at 28. I have also taken Pickens at 28.
I also regularly take DL Perrion Winfrey at 28. They are probably close to being my draft crushes at that point.

Down at picks 53 and 59, I often take DT Travis Jones, or DL/Edge Logan Hall (a rather popular pick, it seems) or Edge Cameron Thomas. A lot of us who have done many mocks often take the same players again and again (like, for example, Jelani Woods TE, either at pick 92 or 132, though I'd rather take Otton).

CB Marcus Jones was a crush at about round 4/5. He is only 5'8", 185, but was the best returner at college. However, ops on both his shoulders recently, suggest he is probably not an option, and with the Packers wanting their CBs to have 5'10"+ size, his selection looks very unlikely.

I think a significant part of what makes some players popular, is how a player is described on big draft sites like NFL.com or thedraftnetwork, for example. Certainly a big part of determining who I like comes from listening to Bootleg Football. I also look at high RAS guys.

As for the WR situation, you are not just looking at the loss of Adams and MVS, you are also looking at the likely loss of Cobb after 2022 (and very possibly Lazard as his contract ends). Amari Rodgers has shown nothing thus far, which doesn't mean he won't, but there isn't a 'comfort zone' there, right now. Also, Sammy Watkins might well be on a one year 'let-the-rookies-bed-in' contract .

Put all that together and the WR room is needing a serious rebuild. Two picks in rounds 1-2 is likely. A later third WR pick is probably more for ST than anything else, with the possibility of development as a receiver later. Three WR picks is not overkill, while two is not bad either.

1 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 19, 2022 at 02:40 pm

Ugh. I'm so tired of people saying they have a crush on Alec Pierce. :-D
I really see Jeff Janis--at best--in him. He might turn out well, but I'll be surprised if he's more than slightly below average. I just can't get past his tape. He's just SO STIFF and unnatural looking as a WR.
However, I'm a big fan of Pickens play (...worry about his personality), and I like Winfrey.
I also like Woods and Otton a lot.

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Turophile's picture

April 20, 2022 at 05:57 am

Different strokes for different folks (re: Alec Pierce).

It's not just his speed I like. He is well put together to survive the hits in the NFL, having a good solid build for a 6'3" guy (no matchstick receiver here). I also appreciate that for a very quick guy, he has shown a lot of ability in making contested catches, which is probably at least in part due to his playing basketball. He is also a strong-handed natural hands catcher, something that is lacking all too often, with speedster receivers. He had a 40" vert and an official 4.41 40 (and at least four teams who hand timed him had him in the 4.31 to 4.33 range).

Does he have some weaknesses, sure he does. As you said he could sell his routes better, though I don't see him as stiff as you feel he is, especially for a well built taller guy who should be judged differently to a slimmer 5'11" type WR. Just watch him torque and contort his body to come down with a contested catch - stiff is not what comes to mind. As thedraftnetwork says, he could use work on his release (but he has the size to get that working better).

I definitely don't see his ceiling as Jeff Janis, he's more like a slightly less stiff version of D.K.Metcalf, minus 10lb.

I see a tall, solid build, a strong, fast, natural hands catcher, with a strong grip and able to win contested catches regularly. One thing I don't see is that extra burst a few of the best receivers have - he IS fast, but without that extra gear over five yards.

He even has the physical toughness to be a real asset when it comes to blocking (and you know Gute and LaFleur will love that).

Taken as a whole I think he has what it takes to get work early on with the Packers, because he has so much of what they want - to me he is closer to a round one pick than a round three one. If Jason Vrable can get him to sell his routes with more craftiness and to use his size to get off the line better, he could be really, really good (just show him some tape on Adams for that).

As for Pickens - yes - got to do those background checks and get a real feel for what makes him tick.......tons of ability though.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 20, 2022 at 05:56 am

We must be watching different tapes. I don't see him ATHLETICALLY "contort his body." I see him--very much like a basketball power forward--turn to the ball, jump up, and power-grab the ball...then fall down. He rarely has YAC, because he regularly falls after catching the ball, because he catches it facing the QB, so his momentum is "backwards," I think pro DBs are going to lick their chops for interceptions off him.
I DO think he'll be a good blocker/gunner, as was Janis. I DO think he'd be okay as a late third round pick, but I doubt I'd pick him in the second.

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Turophile's picture

April 20, 2022 at 08:05 am

Ah well, the guys I hope the Packers draft almost never are, so the chances he is a Packer are slim.

We will have to agree to differ on Pierce.............which is just fine - scouts differ hugely all the time on the same player.

PS It just occurred to me what you are saying about Pierce I see more of in Christian Watson. He (Watson) does have the focus drops and doesn't run routes like you would want. A lot of guys are going to like him, as he is a size/speed guy who tests well - But I believe Pierce ends up the better player.

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davekenya's picture

April 19, 2022 at 01:05 pm

Something else I wonder about with the draft itself is 'how much sway particular position/regional scouts have on Gutey and the choice he ultimately makes when turning in the draft card?'

By nature, all of us (scouts included) are more or less persuasive in our communication skills compared to each other. And some scouts probably have advocated for choosing certain players over the years that weren't selected (but turned out to be outstanding) or that were selected (and flopped). I would like to think that Gutey remembers these things and takes this all into account, but I don't know to what degree he values a scout's 'track record' and 'ability to convince/persuade' versus going strictly off of weighted points.

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LambeauPlain's picture

April 19, 2022 at 01:23 pm

Interesting you mention Kenny Clark, TGR. He was listed on some sites as a 3rd rounder. I remember when Ted drafted him in the first I said "what? Who"? Same reaction when Gutey took Jenks in the second.

After both were drafted I looked them both up and what I read and viewed on film made me smile.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 19, 2022 at 01:51 pm

BDU will be mad I even brought him up but I remember Justin Harrell having a 5th round grade in a draft magazine I had at the time. I remember I was driving home from work when TT picked him and thought who the hell is that. Called a buddy when I got home and he said he was supposed to be good but was injured a lot in college. Small consolation but the next 4 or 5 DTs didn't do anything either.

I liked Vernon Butler and Jarran Reed more than Clark in that draft. Ooops.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 19, 2022 at 02:34 pm

I was the same way with Harrell that year (I was SO mad when I found out a trade for a first the next year plus more had been turned down!). But as usual, after the GM explained the choice ("Justin has leadership qualities like Reggie White" etc.) I was mollified. That didn't last long. :-D

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 20, 2022 at 10:47 pm

I had the same %'in Draft Magazine! SMH

He signed a 6 year $14.5 million dollar contract. Thankfully we ditched him after only 4 years, but he still made $8.1 million Guaranteed. SMM%'inH...

So sad...

Imagine if we'd have taken Dwayne Bowe or Greg Olson, or Anthony Gonzalez... SSMH

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SpikeHyzer's picture

April 19, 2022 at 03:01 pm

You mentioned Cooper as a lock and I don't see anyone with that name on the roster at any position.

My perspective--unlike the fools on some other fan sites--is that the Pack trade up at all costs.

They need to get a top talent at WR in the first round and maybe a top tier EDGE as well.

Package their current 1st rounders with our 4ths to make that happen.

Then grab another WR in round 2 and use the other 2nd for DL.

OL in the 3rd.

They can't possibly sign 11 picks--8 is the estimate I'm hearing--so maybe they could then tack on a couple of those 7ths with the 5th and move up a bit from that slot to target a S or CB (or maybe even another longshot WR).

Gutey always surprises, so I don't know what to expect and can't wait for the draft. He has so far signed fewer UDFAs than the previous regime, but if they do move a bunch of picks as I've suggested and only end up taking 8 or 9 players, I think they will need some savvy vet signings or UDFAs for the OL depth (which they are great at developing as well). Possibly for S and DL depth as well.

College football is too massive for me and I don't follow it at all, so my exposure is always after the fact, looking at the film and RAS of guys we've gotten and of our division foes.

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 19, 2022 at 08:28 pm

IDK for sure but I think he meant Amari Rodgers as a lock, not (Amari Cooper) but we're both getting old, so I could be way off base. The only reason I say that is, I called Amari Rodgers - Amari Cooper by mistake the other day too. Lol

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SpikeHyzer's picture

April 20, 2022 at 03:49 pm

He sees 4 locks and only mentioned 3 actual players on the roster (one of whom WAS Rodgers in that very sentence, in which he mentioned a Cooper AND Rodgers).

I don't see a 4th, not even Watkins (though i do expect he makes it).

They have room for 2-3 more in that case and I wonder how many will be draft picks. Or does Winfree make it?

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2022 at 09:15 pm

Fair. I think Amari and Cooper springs to my mind. It didn't help that Cooper was drafted 4th in 2015 and Sammy Watkins went 4th in 2014. I was looking at draft years a lot to see how many WRs were drafted, how many produced and in what round were they drafted. Just got mixed up, I guess. Sammy Watkins is probably a lock along with Lazard, Cobb, and Amari Rodgers, so drafting 3 brings the WR room to 7 plus Winfree, Malik Taylor, Blair and anyone else they possibly like.

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SpikeHyzer's picture

April 20, 2022 at 03:51 pm

Given the contract details that came out, Watkins isn't even close to a lock in their minds. Worth the risk of paying 300K just to cut--which indicates they think he can bounce back with ARod--but still not a sure thing.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 21, 2022 at 02:58 am

That is true, too. With just $350K guaranteed, his contract does not make it impossible to release him. I think he has enough talent to make a release unlikely, but we shall see who GB drafts and if those guys (or someone already on the team/PS) wow the coaches.

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stockholder's picture

April 19, 2022 at 05:00 pm

I have a interesting draft. The DL talk is dropping every where. Winfrey has been in, and fits their board. I also have T. Jones dropping because of the NT label. My player of interest is Arnold. Ebiketie. LB. Penn St. Going at #28. Still want Christian Watson but Ebiketie is picking up steam.

#22. Treylon Burks. WR. Arkansas
#28. Arnold. Ebiketie. LB. Penn St.
#53. Perrion Winfrey. DT. OKL.
#59. Travis . Jones. DT. Conn.
#92. Jalen Tolbert. WR S. Alabama
#132. Carson Strong. QB. Nevada
#140. Jalani Woods. TE VIR
#171. Matt Araiza. P/PK SD state
#228. Tycen Anderson S. Toledo
#249. Erik Ezukanma. WR Tex Tech
#258. Micah McFadden. LB. IND.

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Qoojo's picture

April 19, 2022 at 06:19 pm

My entire pre-draft analysis is watching 2 or 3 bowl games and going "that guy looks pretty good". I watch the highlights after the pick. Laugh at all complaints about a player being a bust before even attending one mini-camp. It's all random with some ability to limit risks, even the "sure" picks.

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 19, 2022 at 08:46 pm

PFN - I could be wrong, but I think Gutey is going to go overboard on the WRs for AR's last Hurrah... ; ) (I know I did...) Lol

22. Christian Watson WR North Dakota State
28. Treylon Burks WR Arkansas
53. Boye Mafe EDGE Minnesota
59. Alec Pierce WR Cincinnati
92. Jelani Woods TE Virginia
132. Zach Tom OT Wake Forest
140. Rasheed Walker OT Penn State
171. Eyioma Uwazurike DT Iowa State
228. Velus Jones Jr. WR Tennessee
249. Tariq Carpenter S Georgia Tech
258. Esezi Otomewo EDGE Minnesota

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 20, 2022 at 06:11 am

Pick Burks at 22, Watson at 59, and an OT at 28 and I like it. :-D

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 19, 2022 at 08:58 pm

Fanspeak - When Jordan Davis falls to 22, resistance is futile... ; )

22: R1 P22 DL Jordan Davis - Georgia
28: R1 P28 WR Treylon Burks - Arkansas
53: R2 P21 WR George Pickens - Georgia
59: R2 P27 WR Alec Pierce - Cincinnati
92: R3 P28 LB Troy Andersen - Montana State
132: R4 P27 TE Cole Turner - Nevada
140: R4 P35 WR Velus Jones Jr. - Tennessee
171: R5 P28 OT Braxton Jones - Southern Utah
228: R7 P7 LB Alex Wright - UAB
249: R7 P28 OT Nick Zakelj - Fordham
258: R7 P37 S Tariq Carpenter - Georgia Tech

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2022 at 09:17 pm

LOL. Apparently, resistance to Velus Jones is in short supply as well!

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 19, 2022 at 09:33 pm

Or Danny Gray... Lol (Just about any decent WR...)

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 20, 2022 at 06:09 am

I mostly use PFF or nflmockdraftdatabase.
Occasionally Jordan Davis is there at 22, and I too always pick him, but I don't do it happily. I worry he might be "looks like Godzilla, plays like ..." Who's Jane for Godzilla? :-D

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 20, 2022 at 02:06 pm

Janezilla?

When I compare Jordan Davis to BJ Raji, I want Jordan Davis in a Packer uniform. Just comparing those two players it feels like Jordan Davis would be a huge upgrade from Raji, and Kenny Clark could play the Pickett role...

We took BJ Raji at #9 overall because we had to have a NT for the 3 - 4 defense. Raji was a decent NT, but I think Davis would be even more wicked.

Just a guy that huge in the middle of our defense with his hands up on passing downs will affect QBs deliveries for sure. Unless there is something we don't know, I don't expect him to make it to 22 though.

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 19, 2022 at 09:32 pm

First-Pick rankings suck every year...

Round 1 Pick 22: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Round 1 Pick 28: Boye Mafe, DE/OLB, Minnesota
Round 2 Pick 22: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
Round 2 Pick 28: Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
Round 3 Pick 28: Cole Turner, TE, Nevada
Round 4 Pick 28: Calvin Austin III, WR, Memphis
Round 4 Pick 35 (COMP): Bryan Cook, FS/SS, Cincinnati
Round 5 Pick 28: Troy Andersen, ILB/OLB, Montana State
Round 7 Pick 7: Danny Gray, WR, SMU
Round 7 Pick 28: Obinna Eze, OT, TCU
Round 7 Pick 37 (COMP): Kalon Barnes, CB, Baylor

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 20, 2022 at 06:04 am

Then why do you keep using First-Pick?! :-D Their rankings seem ridiculous.

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 20, 2022 at 02:12 pm

*Variety is the spice of life dude... ; )

Because the rankings of all the sites are ridiculous and seeing which site values what players at certain spots give me a more clear picture overall. Some sites way over-value some guys and others are after-thoughts.

I don't mean to profess any better knowledge than any other guy around here, but it does help me form my opinions on players value and rankings.

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 19, 2022 at 09:59 pm

Fanspeak with a different big board...

22: R1 P22 DL Jordan Davis - Georgia
28: R1 P28 WR Treylon Burks - Arkansas
53: R2 P21 S Jaquan Brisker - Penn State
59: R2 P27 OT Abraham Lucas - Washington State
92: R3 P28 LB Troy Andersen - Montana State
132: R4 P27 WR Danny Gray - SMU
140: R4 P35 WR Velus Jones Jr. - Tennessee
171: R5 P28 EDGE Alex Wright - UAB
228: R7 P7 EDGE Jeffrey Gunter - Coastal Carolina
249: R7 P28 OT Ryan Van Demark - UConn
258: R7 P37 OT Nick Zakelj - Fordham

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 20, 2022 at 06:03 am

This looks like a much more realistic outcome than a number of the ones you've posted (even though they are fun to dream about! :-D )
Davis, Brisker, Anderson plus a developmental edge in Gunter, is what I'm hoping for the defense.
Burks, Gray, Jones is a perfect use of resources at WR. ( I still prefer Bo Melton over Gray)
Lucas is one of my favorite hope-it-happens players; I think he is a perfect ROT in the late second round.

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crayzpackfan's picture

April 20, 2022 at 11:14 am

Here's my "How would Rodgers react" mock draft...
Matt Corral-QB, Ole Miss
Sam Howell-QB, North Carolina
Carson Strong-QB, Nevada
Skylar Thompson-QB, Kansas State
Jack Coan-QB, Notre Dame
Kaleb Eleby-QB, Western Michigan
Dustin Crum-QB, Kent State
Brock Purdy-QB, Iowa State
Of course I am kidding. But could you imagine?

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 20, 2022 at 02:13 pm

Crazy...

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 20, 2022 at 02:20 pm

Very weird draft. I went BPA without allowing for our massive need at WR and it turned out very interesting. (Fanspeak with KC Board)

22: R1 P22 EDGE Jermaine Johnson II - FSU
28: R1 P28 CB Sauce Gardner - Cincinnati
53: R2 P21 DL Perrion Winfrey - Oklahoma
59: R2 P27 LB Leo Chenel - Wisconsin
92: R3 P28 WR Danny Gray - SMU
132: R4 P27 RB Breece Hall - Iowa St.
140: R4 P35 WR Velus Jones Jr. - Tennessee
171: R5 P28 TE James Mitchell - Virginia Tech
228: R7 P7 WR Jaivon Heiligh - Coastal Carolina
249: R7 P28 WR Tanner Connor - Idaho St.
258: R7 P37 OT Ryan Van Demark - UConn

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 20, 2022 at 02:34 pm

Another weird draft with Steve Shoup Fanspeak Big Board

22: R1 P22 EDGE Jermaine Johnson - Florida State
28: R1 P28 DL Devonte Wyatt - Georgia
53: R2 P21 S Lewis Cine - Georgia
59: R2 P27 RB Breece Hall - Iowa State
92: R3 P28 LB Troy Andersen - Montana State
132: R4 P27 TE Cole Turner - Nevada
140: R4 P35 WR Erik Ezukanma - Texas Tech
171: R5 P28 WR Velus Jones Jr. - Tennessee
228: R7 P7 WR Danny Gray - SMU
249: R7 P28 LB Alex Wright - UAB
258: R7 P37 OT Nick Zakelj - Fordham

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 20, 2022 at 02:46 pm

Draftec Big Board - IDK why Davis and Johnson keep falling to us at 22, but I pray they do...

22: R1 P22 DL Jordan Davis - Georgia
28: R1 P28 EDGE Jermaine Johnson II - Florida State
53: R2 P21 RB Breece Hall - Iowa State
59: R2 P27 WR Alec Pierce - Cincinnati
92: R3 P28 TE Jelani Woods - Virginia
132: R4 P27 OT Braxton Jones - Southern Utah
140: R4 P35 WR Velus Jones Jr. - Tennessee
171: R5 P28 TE Cole Turner - Nevada
228: R7 P7 EDGE Isaiah Thomas - Oklahoma
249: R7 P28 OT Ryan Van Demark - UConn
258: R7 P37 WR Reggie Roberson Jr. - SMU

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 20, 2022 at 03:01 pm

Watson and Pierce were both gone by 53 on PFN.

22. Trevor Penning OT Northern Iowa
28. Devonte Wyatt DT Georgia
53. Jahan Dotson WR Penn State
59. George Pickens WR Georgia
92. Tyquan Thornton WR Baylor
132. Cole Turner TE Nevada
140. Rasheed Walker OT Penn State
171. Danny Gray WR SMU
228. Zander Horvath RB Purdue
249. Bamidele Olaseni OT Utah
258. Andrew Stueber OG Michigan

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crayzpackfan's picture

April 20, 2022 at 03:21 pm

I think you are addicted to mock drafts. LOL. I did one the other day where I traded Jordan Love to the Lions for their 32,97,177, and 217. It was one of my best mocks (for whatever that's actually worth.....nothing) that I have done. I fully realize that there is no way we can draft and sign that many players, it was still fun.
On a serious note, in spite of my trade simulation, I hope that GB doesn't trade up. If anything, I would rather they stay with what they have or trade down for more 2's and 3's while trading up with 7's. There is a ton of value 2-4 in this draft.
At any rate, I truly enjoy and get a kick outa all your mocks. Cheers

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 20, 2022 at 06:51 pm

Lol... I'm glad someone besides me enjoys them. I find myself drafting the same guys over and over. Must mean the draft is next week... XD

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 20, 2022 at 09:07 pm

Just started watching "Draft Day" the movie...

Mandatory about this time of year!

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 20, 2022 at 09:28 pm

I see the CHTV REGULATORS now have 8 total "Predict the Pick" entries...

Surprised we don't have more...

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ThunderFromDownunder's picture

April 21, 2022 at 04:41 am

What are the rules here no trades ? I did mine At PFN and did except trades .
GB
22.

Treylon Burks
WR Arkansas
GB
28.

Perrion Winfrey
DT Oklahoma
GB
53.

Boye Mafe
EDGE Minnesota
GB
59.

Bernhard Raimann
OT Central Michigan
GB
92.

Isaiah Likely
TE Coastal Carolina
GB
140.

JT Woods
S Baylor
GB
142.

Mykael Wright ( 132 for 142 and 175 LAR )
CB Oregon
trade icon
GB
171.

Tyquan Thornton
WR Baylor
GB
175.

Obinna Eze
OT TCU
trade icon
GB
228.

Velus Jones Jr.
WR Tennessee
GB
249.

Logan Bruss
OT Wisconsin
GB
258.

Ryan Stonehouse
P Colorado State

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 21, 2022 at 05:10 am

Those picks would work. I don't love Burks (maintaining his weight is just one issue), but I assume Gute has spoken with him and with his coaches and has checked to make sure his play speed is faster than his combine times.

We don't have any rules, strictly speaking. If you do make a trade, I'd prefer not to have absurd results, but even then it is okay. A few years ago on another site when we had 12, 30 and 44, a guy traded all of them back, and all of those back, etc., until he ended up with something like 30 picks in round four.

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ThunderFromDownunder's picture

April 21, 2022 at 05:54 am

All the best WRs were gone by 22 so Burks was the best guy left . I wonder if that`s the way things end up in the real draft , lets hope not .

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 21, 2022 at 11:51 am

Updated Rankings on Fanspeak still suck... Lol

22: R1 P22 WR Chris Olave - Ohio State
28: R1 P28 S Jalen Pitre - Baylor
53: R2 P21 RB Breece Hall - Iowa State
59: R2 P27 WR Alec Pierce - Cincinnati
92: R3 P28 TE Jelani Woods - Virginia
132: R4 P27 LB Darrian Beavers - Cincinnati
140: R4 P35 WR Tyquan Thornton - Baylor
171: R5 P28 OT Matt Waletzko - North Dakota St
228: R7 P7 TE James Mitchell - Virginia Tech
249: R7 P28 OT Bamidele Olaseni - Utah
258: R7 P37 DL Eyioma Uwazurike - Iowa State

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 21, 2022 at 12:00 pm

I might be really crazy, but I love this draft.

If Gutey comes up with anything even close to this good, I'll be very excited.

22: R1 P22 WR Treylon Burks - Arkansas
28: R1 P28 LB Devin Lloyd - Utah
53: R2 P21 S Lewis Cine - Georgia
59: R2 P27 DL Travis Jones - Connecticut
92: R3 P28 TE Jelani Woods - Virginia
132: R4 P27 RB Pierre Strong Jr. - South Dakota St
140: R4 P35 WR Danny Gray - SMU
171: R5 P28 EDGE Alex Wright - UAB
228: R7 P7 WR Romeo Doubs - Nevada
249: R7 P28 OT Cordell Volson - North Dakota St
258: R7 P37 OT Bamidele Olaseni - Utah

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 21, 2022 at 01:45 pm

Great draft! I'd pick Lloyd BEFORE Burks, and an earlier OL, maybe replacing Strong, would look better to me, but Burks, Gray, Doubs + Woods is great and Lloyd, Cine, Jones would be amazing. I love all three of those guys.

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 21, 2022 at 01:53 pm

Wanted to take Burks so we didn't miss out on him.

Yeah, I think that draft would be wicked, but who the % am I? (Smarter than Mel %'in Kiper, better looking, and more talented too...) Lol

Think Strong will be just like Aaron Jones only bigger and faster...

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ThunderFromDownunder's picture

April 22, 2022 at 12:26 am

PFN used , I really want a new Punter and my Crush Jones Jr

22: LB Devin Lloyd - Utah
28: WR WR Treylon Burks - Arkansas
53: DL Travis Jones - Connecticut
59: EDGE Drake Jackson - USC
92 : TE Jeremy Ruckert - Ohio St
132: WR Justyn Ross - Clemson
140: OT Rasheed Walker - Pen St
171: OG Cade Mays - Tennessee
228: P Jake Camarda - Georgia
249: WR / KR Velus Jones Jr. - Tennessee
258 : OC Luke Wattenberg - Washington

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