The season is creeping up. It is on our doorstep. I had such great plans for this offseason. And, while I’m happy with all the things we looked at, I still wish I had done more. There’s never quite enough time, and that’s a good thing. Maybe that means the offseason isn’t quite the barren wasteland it is made out to be? (That’s a lie: it absolutely is.)

I’ve spent a decent chunk of time this offseason pondering what the Packers offense will look like without Davante Adams. We’ll have answers soon enough, but I wanted to do one more look at the games in the LaFleur era without Adams. This time I wanted to focus on Allen Lazard: by all accounts, the Packers presumed WR1 heading into 2022.

As we all know, Adams missed 7 starts during the LaFleur era. Of those 7 missed games, Lazard played in 4 of them: 2019 Lions, 2019 Raiders, 2019 Chiefs and 2020 Saints. (For those keeping track at home, that means he missed 2019 Cowboys, 2020 Falcons and 2021 Cardinals.)

In those 4 games, Lazard caught 18 passes on 22 targets (81.8%) for 295 yards (13.4 YPA) and 2 TDs (9.1 TD rate). That puts Lazard’s per-game averages as 4.5 catches on 5.5 targets for 73.8 yards per game. If we extrapolate those out to a 17 game season (and round them, to make it look a little nicer), that puts Lazard at 77 catches on 94 targets, 1,254 yards and 9 TDs. Not too shabby.

When looking at those, it’s important to remember those those are pockets in time spread over a couple seasons, so simply taking those averages and saying, “Well, if he did this for a full season, here is what he will do.” Defenses adjust over the course of a season. And, while Lazard has been a useful receiver, we’ve simply not seen the type of consistent, high-level performance from him over the course of a season to project a 1,200 yard season.

It’s also important to remember that these numbers are bolstered by a huge game against the Saints in 2020 (6 catches on 8 targets for 146 yards and 1 TD). If we strip that one game out of the equation, his numbers over the course of an entire season look way different: 68 catches on 79 targets, 844 yards and 6 TDs. Still a respectable season, but a far cry from the initial numbers.

My point in saying all this is to say that a 4 game sample across 2 years is extremely small and impossible to use as an indicator to project future production. 

That being said…let’s look at those 4 games with Lazard! My intention is not to say this is exactly how he will be used this season, but I thought it might be a fun exercise to see exactly where his targets & yards came from during those 4 games. 

Will it give us insight into how the Packers plan to use him in 2022? Who knows! Will it help distract us until we have a Packers preseason game to dissect? Absolutely! So let’s do it.

As we have a tendency to do, we’ll look at it through the lens of passing concepts.

Mesh (3 targets, 3 catches, 55 yards, 2 TDs)

It makes my heart absolutely sing that Lazard did so well in Mesh. In the first two clips, Lazard is working as the vertical option off the Mesh concept. In the Air Raid system, that vertical route is the first read. If that guy is open, throw it to him. If not, move to the mesh point. In those first two clips, the Packers are playing the Lions and are looking at a single-high, man-under defense (Man Free). In the first clip, Rodgers takes a quick glance at Lazard as soon as the ball is snapped, then moves to the middle. He lingers there for a bit, but his intention the entire time seems like he’s planning on going to Lazard: he just needs to hold the safety for that deep vertical. And he connects with an absolutely perfect throw.

What a throw, man. pic.twitter.com/VMS3Ate4Tu

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) August 5, 2022

In the second clip, it’s a vertical out-breaking route against the same coverage. Rodgers is going there as soon as his back foot hits, but double-clutches a bit with a defender in his face.

The final clip takes place in the low red zone. There’s a bootleg component to this one, so I was tempted to throw it into the PA Boot bucket, but I ultimately threw it in Mesh because that’s how the routes play out. Lazard is working as one of the drag routes here, and Rodgers is able to find him in the end zone after being forced to pull up short on the bootleg due to pressure off the edge.

Mills/Portland (2 targets, 2 catches, 81 yards)

The first clip has Lazard as a drag/whip working under the concept, and eventually picking up 9 yards as the target of a scramble drill pass. 

The second clip is the highlight. Lazard is working as the post receiver on the Portland concept, breaking over the dig route from the other side. The concept works exactly as intended. The Saints are in a Quarters look on 3rd & 10, which leaves the middle of the field open. The safety to the dig side breaks down on the dig, giving Lazard inside leverage on his defender and an ocean of green grass where the route takes him. Rodgers hits Lazard with a perfect pass, and Lazard picks up 75 yards, falling just a few yards shy of the end zone.

Lazard hauling in the catch on the post/deep-over route on the Portland concept.
Still just insane how Rodgers is able to flip a little to open his hips and launch a ball whenever he wants. pic.twitter.com/QctOFn4Agr

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) August 5, 2022

Lazard does a great job with this route. Takes a subtle inside release at the line to avoid the potential jam from the slot defender, then pushes vertically with an urgency; his long strides eating up the space between him and his defender. He gives one false step and a head nod to flatten his defender, then breaks to the post. Great route.

PA Boot (2 targets, 2 catches, 57 yards)

I went into the nuts-and-bolts of PA Boot earlier this offseason, so we don’t really need to get into that. 

Lazard worked two different roles in this concept, with both targets coming in the Saints game. In the first clip, he works as the slicer. If this was a split-zone run, he’d be blocking the edge. In PA Boot, he releases under the line and works in the space vacated by the play action flow. 

In the second clip, Lazard is running the Sail route. The Saints are showing a Quarters look pre-snap, but one of the safeties seems to be rotating down as the Robber post-snap. Marshon Lattimore picks up the vertical route from Lazard, but his initial lateral release puts him in a bad position and he can’t close the gap. Rodgers lays a beautiful ball over the top and Lazard hauls it in.

Lazard getting loose on a Sail route against the Saints. Lattimore takes a horizontal release & the safety to that side is playing Robber. Lazard gets a nice release and just keeps rolling down the field. pic.twitter.com/XGdJLH1c5a

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) August 5, 2022

Verts (2 targets, 2 catches, 33 yards)

Lazard is the outside man on both of these. In the first clip, he’s running a deep comeback route. There are only 24 seconds remaining in the 1st half, so the defense is playing back and taking away the deep stuff, so Rodgers comes back to Lazard on the sideline, who steps out of bounds to stop the clock.

In the second clip, Lazard is once again on the outside, running a stutter-and-go. The deep safety to his side shades toward Jimmy Graham, so Rodgers throws high-and-away to Lazard on the outside, and Lazard goes up and gets those cookies.

Stick (One-Man) (2 targets, 2 catches, 23 yards)

When I think of Davante Adams and what he brings to the quick game, I think of Stick. Both instances of Lazard’s targets on this concept came against the Chiefs. In the first clip, he motions over and is shadowed by a defender, so it’s looking like Lazard has man coverage, with the man playing 7 yards off. Lazard pushes vertical for a couple steps, then breaks to the outside. Rodgers doesn’t even take a step. He simply jump-sets and fires to Lazard out of the break.

The zero step drop from Rodgers on Stick. Rocks on his back foot, jump-sets and fires. His quick-game stuff is so good. pic.twitter.com/Iu0frFnNoa

— Dusty (@DustyEvely) August 5, 2022

The second clip is the Stick-Nod variation. Lazard is running the Stick-Nod route from the right slot. The routes are initially covered up and Rodgers feels pressure, so he breaks contain pretty quickly. It turns into a scramble drill, so Lazard breaks off his route and finds a nice, empty space in the field for Rodgers to find him.

Drive (1 target, 1 catch, 12 yards)

Lazard isn’t a part of the larger Drive concept, but I love his role here. He’s the #2 receiver in the right slot. It initially looks like a Dragon (Slant/Flat) concept, with Lazard faking a pick in the flat to spring Kumerow on the slant. Instead, he breaks off, reads the drop of the defender and settles down and allows Rodgers to find him.

RPO (5 targets, 5 catches, 30 yards)

I went in-depth on this earlier in the offseason, but we’ll repeat part of it here: the Packers overwhelmingly favor the horizontal RPO based off pre-snap math rather than the post-snap RPO where the QB would read a conflict defender. That is true of 4 of these 5. 

The first clip is Lazard as the Smoke receiver. It’s an inside zone run call and Lazard’s defender is 8+ yards off, so Rodgers flips it out to Lazard. The defender closes fast and Lazard can’t shake him, so it ends as a modest 3 yard gain.

The next 3 are all Bubble screens out of a bunch look, with Lazard as the inside receiver. It’s a pre-snap numbers read for Rodgers. If the Packers have a numbers advantage to that side, the ball will go to the bubble receiver. Basically, can they get hat-on-a-hat blocking and get the bubble behind those blockers? This is the most common RPO tag for the Packers. In 2021, they averaged 3.6 yards per attempt when throwing these. To Lazard across these 4 games they averaged 6.7 yards per attempt. (Keeping in mind that 3 targets across 4 games is an extremely small sample size.)

The last clip is the only vertical RPO in the bunch. Lazard is uncovered in the left slot. He pushes vertically and curls back into open space. Rodgers finds him for 7 yards.

Conclusion

This was a really fun look and, while I think it can help inform some of what we’ll see, it’s too small a sample size to draw any major conclusions. One thing I found promising was the different ways in which Lazard won. We saw him use his leverage to his advantage and maintain that leverage down the field. We saw him get the defense on their heels with the vertical threat to create space and angles to attack. We saw him win vertically. We saw him win in the quick game. We saw him win when working back to Rodgers as the play started to break down.

All of that stuff is promising. The ability to win in different ways without a true WR1 on the field will certainly serve him well this season. I tend to think that his season numbers will look roughly like the 68 catches, 844 yards, 6 TD stat line we talked about at the top, and that would certainly rank as an overwhelming success in my book.

I’m hyped to finally stop talking about “what things could look like in 2022” and get around to actually seeing how this is going to play out.

Albums listened to: Starflyer 59 - Leave Here A Stranger; LN - Monkeys & Spoons; Flyying Colours - Flyying Colours; The Appleseed Cast - Low Level Owl Vol, 1 & 2; HY-FY - The Bloody Pit (Original Soundtrack); Hum - Inlet