Is 10 Wins Still the Magic Number?
Packers' run of consecutive playoff berths is nothing short of remarkable.
By ChrisWanless
The offseason is in full swing, and virtually everything that can be said about the upcoming NFL Draft has been plotted out for everyone to see. Though it's hard to focus on anything else at this point in the league year, our own Jason Perone's article on home field advantage got me thinking. Not just about home field advantage, however, but about how hard it is to make the playoffs in general in the NFL.
Throughout the course of history in the NFL, or at least in the 25 years I’ve been alive, the 10-win threshold has been considered the benchmark for a postseason berth. Win 10 games, give yourself an outstanding chance at playoff football.
So, just how important is hitting the 10-win mark?
Using the past 10 seasons (2007-2016) as my sample, I took a look at the number of playoff berths by record. Twelve teams, six from each conference, make the playoffs each year, meaning there have been 120 playoff teams in that span.
The first thing I looked at was the number of teams who qualified for the postseason with less than 10 victories. Not surprisingly, nine victories was the most prevalent number resulting in playoff berths. In seven of the 10 years, at least one team with nine wins advanced the postseason, with a total of 13 nine-win teams qualifying in that period. Three times, 8-8 teams made it. Two seven-win teams, the 2010 Seahawks and 2014 Panthers, automatically qualified by virtue of division championships.
That means 18 teams have made the playoffs with nine or fewer wins in the past ten years, or 15 percent of playoff qualifiers during that span. To break it down further: 10.8% of playoff teams in that period finished with nine wins, 2.5% had eight, and just 1.7% of playoff teams from 2007-2016 won seven games.
For those of you keeping track at home, this means the remaining 102 playoff spots, or 85 percent, over those 10 seasons went to teams with 10 or more victories. That is obviously an overwhelming majority and seems to back up the 10-win argument. For good measure, I looked at the number of 10-win teams over the past decade that didn’t make the playoffs. That number is seven. Only seven teams over the past 10 seasons have missed the postseason after winning at least 10 games.
Additionally, we can take a look at the average number of victories by playoff teams from 2007 to 2016. The average number of wins by playoff teams during that span is 11.
But couldn’t division winners with high win totals skew those numbers? Sure. So let's look at the average win totals of wild card teams from 2007 to 2016. The average here comes out to 10.3 wins. So while all these numbers would tell us 10 is a relatively safe number, you actually may need more than that to guarantee yourself a spot in the NFL postseason.
To me, these numbers indicate the incredibly difficult road the Packers have traveled over their eight consecutive years making the playoffs. Winning 10 games in the NFL is hard enough, but when the stats say you actually have to win MORE than that, well, it makes the Packers' current run of success all that more impressive.
Comments (9)
Since'61
April 08, 2017 at 01:14 pm
Since 1992 the Packers have qualified for the playoffs in 19 out of the last 25 seasons. No other team in the league including the Pats can make that claim (the Patriots have made the playoffs 18 times since 1992). After the abysmal 24 year run of the post-Lombardi era the Packers have balanced out the grim 70s and 80s by emerging from NFL irrelevance in the 90s. The turnaround began with the hiring of Ron Wolf late in the 1991 season and his hiring of Mike Holmgren and trading for Brett Favre in 1992. The playoff run actually began in 1993 with Wolf signing Reggie White. The first and still the best FA signing by any team to date. The Packers have been a very effective, well run and consistent organization both on and off the field since that time. For those of us who witnessed the Lombardi era and the dark ages of 68-91 the last 25 seasons has rewarded our faith in the Packers organization and restored our pride of the Packers tradition. However with back to back HOF QBs it has been a little disappointing to have only 2 SBs during the last 25 seasons. But that just proves how difficult it is to win in this era of the NFL. Another 1 or 2 Lombardi's before AR moves on would soothe many souls and maybe prepare us for a possible return to a non-playoff era beyond AR. Realistically, what are the chances of a 3rd HOF QB in a row? Plus the future will be an era of the added distraction of Packer world and potential of our on field product becoming more of a hobby than the focus it has been in the past. But it has been a great ride with more good days than bad and hopefully will continue for at least another 3 - 7 seasons. Thanks, Since '61
P.S., just to be clear, The Packers have qualified for the playoffs 19 times since the 1993 season; the Patriots have qualified 18 times since the 1994 season. So both teams have reached the playoffs 18 times since 1994.
croatpackfan
April 08, 2017 at 04:44 pm
Thank you for this little, but sweet addition, Since...
Thegreatreynoldo
April 09, 2017 at 03:29 am
Excellent post, Since '61. From 1978 (when the NFL moved from a 14 game season to 16 games) through 1992, we averaged 6.47 wins per year. I became a packer fan in 1973. From '73 through 1992, we made the playoffs one time, and that was the strike shortened season when we went 5-3-1, and we won just one playoff game during those 20 seasons. Yet there was no lack of fans and the seats were always filled. Even those bad teams entertained me.
I am one of those people who clamor for super bowls. I define a successful season as an appearance in a conference championship game. Some suggest that I am spoiled, and that is okay especially if they have been rooting for GB for a long time. I understand that sustained success is good, too. My own philosophy is that one needs to strike while the iron is hot. I've seen the iron go cold for long time periods of time.
NickPerry
April 09, 2017 at 06:05 am
"I am one of those people who clamor for super bowls."
"My own philosophy is that one needs to strike while the iron is hot. I've seen the iron go cold for long time periods of time."
I agree 100% as I'm one of those people too. I don't give a damn about winning the NFC North 5 years in a row or 5 of the last 6. What exactly IS the payoff for that? Obviously the playoffs, but how many of you would trade say 2 or 3 NFC North titles for another SB? I know I would in a second. In other words maybe a few FA signings in those years at the expense of a NFC North title for a year or two is worth it.
Maybe TT signing a Revis for a season a few years ago when he was a rented gun for hire would have done it. Maybe adding a safety who was competent in 2011 would have done it. Collins was hurt in week 2, Thompson had several weeks to try and make a trade but did nothing. In 2012 Bishop gets hurt in the preseason and TT does nothing until the 2015 draft when he selected Ryan and last season when he took Martinez. Well he did give Brad Jones that $12 million contract and restructure the ridiculous contract he gave Hawk in 2011 before that season started.
In 2010 TT has a chance to add Lynch in a trade from the Bills yet lowballs them. Yes they won a SB in 2010 but what about the following seasons, how might have that paid off? BB is the master of one or two year contracts for veteran FA. He signs more players to one or two year deals who play a vital role in SB victories. It's sort of what TT has done this season. The Kendricks, House, and RJF deals are perfect examples of this. Better late than never Ted.
Hindsight is always 20/20 but I wish our GM would focus on this season and perhaps even the following season instead of 3 seasons down the road. Yes we always have a healthy cap, but at what cost? Maybe another SB title or two.
dobber
April 08, 2017 at 02:11 pm
"For those of you keeping track at home, this means the remaining 102 playoff spots, or 85 percent, over those 10 seasons went to teams with 10 or more victories.... Only seven teams over the past 10 seasons have missed the postseason after winning at least 10 games."
You mention that average number (11 wins?) for playoff teams. The number of fewer than 9 win teams out there is well outnumbered by the 11+ win teams...which skews the average well past 10. Look at the median number of wins, too, and compare it to the average. That will tell us more about how number of wins are distributed amongst playoff qualifiers.
I think the magic number is still 10 due to the end of this paragraph: Only 7 teams won 10 and DIDN'T make it. In that group is at least one 11-win team, right? (I can't remember but I thought there was an 11-win team that didn't make it a couple years ago) Whatever the case, the odds are strongly in your favor of all the dominoes falling the right way for you to make the playoffs if you win 10.
Bearmeat
April 08, 2017 at 03:10 pm
If you have a healthy elite QB, you are guaranteed at least 6 wins every year. Look at the Dolphins under Marino, the Colts under Manning, the Steelers under Ben, the Saints under Brees. Those are some pretty average teams with great players at the games most important spot. By that math, GB has only exceeded .500 ball 5 times since 2006, and only an additional 7 times since 1991. 12 truly good teams top to bottom in 25 years. Pretty solid numbers. But considering the quality of QB play, it's pretty mediocre IMO. I'd say GB has done an excellent job (lucky job?) getting HOF level talent at QB for 2 careers. I'd also say that running the ball and fielding a consistent defense has been mediocre.
egbertsouse
April 09, 2017 at 08:26 am
Great, we're really good at winning the North by beating those other 3 train wrecks in the division. Put us in the NFC West or East or the AFC East or North and we have 2-3 division titles at most over that same period.
If I wanted to define division titles as great successes I could become a Vikings fan.
Lphill
April 09, 2017 at 08:37 am
There was a period in the 90's when the 8 home games were pretty much wins when the schedule came out so reaching 10 wins was not that hard , we need to dominate at Lambeau and that will be the path to the post season.
dobber
April 09, 2017 at 06:39 pm
But let's not lose track of how good the personnel on that team in the mid-90s really was.