Hot Takes and Sunday Picks

I offer some hot takes in this week's edition of the stock report. 

There has certainly been no shortage of storylines in the NFL over the past few weeks.  We have seen a hardcore battle royal match between the Steeles and Browns, another pissing match between Kaepernick and the NFL, and what feels like a ton of surprising outcomes over the past few weeks.  Today, I wanted to take the time to give a couple of my opinions and then offer some NFL picks for week.

1. DeAndre Hopkins was right:

DeAndre encapsulated everyone's frustration when he essentially said that Alberto Riveron needs to be fired immediately.  I feel like people always run their mouths about how they can do a better job than the professionals and 99.9% of the team they are just blowing smoke out of their ass, but in this situation,everyone can tune in and watch the replay officials in New York fail at their job every week.  The officials need to stop covering for each other every time they make an obvious mistake.  Make the product more watchable by getting it right!

Sell: Alberto Riveron

Buy: The viewing audience shaming the NFL and their terrible officials. 

2. Everyone should share blame in the Myles Garrett fiasco:

The Browns Steelers brawl was probably one of the worst incidents in professional sports since "The Malice at the Palace".  Although I think Myles Garrett should get the book thrown at him, Mason Rudolph escalated the incident by pulling at his face mask and kicking him where the sun don't shine.  It was just a bad situation all around, Garrett had no business getting anywhere near Rudolph, Rudolph took a cheap shot in reaction to Garrett, and then all hell broke loose.  The reality of the situation is that the NFL should have tagged Rudolph with a 1-2 game suspension.

In conjunction, I think Mason Rudolph should have pursued legal action against Myles Garrett and the Cleveland Browns.  In an interview on the Mike Francesa, "Mike's On" show on WFAN in NY, Dr. Steve O'Brien of New York Presbyterian Hospital told Mike Francesa that Garrett's helmet hit to the exposed skull of Rudolph could have caused death if he hit him flush.  To me, this is a matter outside of the power of the NFL and although it is their right to suspend him for as long as they choose, it is Rudolph's prerogative to have pursued further legal action if he wanted to (He chose not to but should have).  I don't expect to see Garrett until the middle of the 2020 season at the very earliest, Myles is a terrific player but actions like these cannot be tolerated.

Sell: Myles Garrett and Mason Rudolph

Buy: Maurkice Pouncey (Who is now a legend in the Steeler locker room) 

3. The Kaepernick Workout was part of the NFL's undisclosed settlement with him:

To the surprise of no one, Colin Kaepernick's workout was a complete circus act.  What most people won't say is that it went exactly how the NFL wanted it to.  Let's be real, there is no way in hell that the almighty NFL would ever want Colin Kaepernick back in the league to cause more controversy.  So, what did they do; they put a few poison pills in the pre-workout waivers that they knew he would never agree to.  This workout was a total hatchet job from the beginning with all of the hoops that they made Colin and his team jump through from the start.  

First of all, everything was done half ass and on short notice.  Second of all and most damning in my opinion, was that they had Kaep workout on a random Saturday more than halfway through the season.  They knew that not many high-ranking executives would be in attendance nor would they be interested in bringing in a controversial figure who would need to learn an NFL playbook in a matter of a couple of weeks to even justify signing him.  With all of this knowledge ahead of time, the NFL is obviously hoping to kick the case of Colin Kaepernick down the road a few more miles until training camp of 2020.

Colin was smart to ask for the NFL to allow him to bring in his own video team, so that he and his representatives would have final cut of his video workout.  He was also smart to ask the NFL to allow members of the media access to the workout so that he would have a line of credible witnesses in case the NFL tried to pull something.  As a result of his demands, and the NFL's unwillingness to provide allowances for Colin and his team, he did the best thing he could by setting up his own workout which was controlled by his own people.  The outcome of Kaepernick's workout was that he proved he could probably start for almost a third of the teams in the NFL; but more importantly he presented an open and shut case to the public that the NFL has colluded against him and "black balled" him from the sport.

Sell: The NFL in handling the workout and Kaepernick

Buy: Kaepernick getting witnesses for his workout and going rogue.  

4. Week 12 Picks "in the league where they play for pay":

I am going to give you three picks I like this week, including a five team parlay, an upset parlay, and my pick for the Packers clash in Santa Clara.  

My Five-dollar, Five team parlay:

1. The Lions -3.5 against the Redskins

2. The Seahawks money line against the Eagles

3. The Bills -4.0 at home against Denver

4. The Saints -10 at home against Carolina

5. The Bears -6 at home against the Giants.

My five-dollar upset parlay:

1. The Cowboys money line at home against New England.

2. The Jets money line at home against Oakland.

3. The Packers money line against San Francisco.

Packers Clash in Santa Clara;

I think the Packers had a chance to rest and refocus after the bye week and will have a specialized gameplan to move the ball on offense and scheme Jimmy G. into some bad throws on defense.  I see the Packers pulling off a 21-17 upset win over the 49ers on Sunday Night.   

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David Michalski is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @kilbas27dave 

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Comments (33)

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Bearmeat's picture

November 20, 2019 at 11:56 am

You're starting a turd-slinging festival by wading into the Kaepernick fiasco, David. Get ready for CHTV to get blown up with about 400 comments, and I wouldn't check your social media mentions for the next few days if I were you.

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DavidMichalski's picture

November 20, 2019 at 12:47 pm

All good, bring it on

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Handsback's picture

November 20, 2019 at 01:35 pm

Getting the absurd out of the way...Kap has 2 teams he could play for since they use mobile QBs, the Ravens and maybe the Bill's and Panthers. Outside those teams his running skills won't complement NFL offenses.

I don't want to be a downer, but if the Packers can't beat the 49ers after a bye then they need to reconsider their game approach.

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DavidMichalski's picture

November 20, 2019 at 01:57 pm

He could start in Washington Cincy Tennessee Chicago Tampa just to name a few. Plus he’s a better option than Rudolph in Pitt

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Handsback's picture

November 20, 2019 at 04:35 pm

David, you know NFL teams work years to develop offense concepts that are based on their QBs. You can't put a running/mobile QB into these offenses and expect any continuity. Let's also not kid ourselves that Kap is a great passer/reader of defense in order to find their weakness. When he was a starter...teams built their schemes around making him pass the ball. The fact that he may be better than a few rookies or back-ups...isn't a great selling point when compared to his desire of starter money.

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NMPF's picture

November 20, 2019 at 02:19 pm

In response to your comment to Handsback, your assumption that Kap is a starter on 6 NFL teams is shortsighted. He has not taken a snap in 3 seasons, we are 10 games into the 2019 season and on top of that he wasn't performing as a starter in 2016.

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Lphill's picture

November 20, 2019 at 02:27 pm

I don’t see the Cowboys beating the Pats, hell they could have beat the Vikings if they kept passing to Cobb and Cooper. But went to the run in the red zone.

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NitschkeFan's picture

November 20, 2019 at 02:40 pm

"The outcome of Kaepernick's workout was that he proved he could probably start for almost a third of the teams in the NFL"

I'll preface my comment by stating the obvious, that I was not there to see this in person but I have seen film clips and read numerous reviews by people in attendance.

David, your statement is a real stretch. Throwing a few balls in your shorts, with no pass rush, to uncovered WR's on a high school field. He reportedly threw relatively well under those conditions but that hardly proved that Kap could "start for a third of the teams in the NFL". Get him signed and work his way through the offseason OTA's, training camp and pre-season.

After that perhaps you could make such a proclamation. I think that there is way too little evidence to think that yet.

You could discuss his mediocre record in his last 25 - 30 starts (admittedly on a bad team), career QB rating of ~88 and that it has been almost 3 years since he played a snap in the real NFL. All of that should factor into your proclamation shouldn't it?

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DavidMichalski's picture

November 20, 2019 at 06:03 pm

According to Schefter, the high level execs that were there said his arm talent was (still) elite and he threw well. My point is he is good enough to start especially in these dumpster fire offenses. Realistically he’s not going to get more than a couple mill guaranteed, it will have to be performance based. But this narrative that he sucks just isn’t true. Everyone refers to his last year and a half but he was around a year out from serious shoulder surgery. I’d have a lot more respect if ppl just flat out admitted that they don’t want him in the league because of his views rather than hide behind him not being an “asset”. Like I’d love to see the headlines if the Bears signed Kaepernick and his second or third start of the year was at Lambeau. All of the Packer pessimists would be writing about him having a break out performance. (Not saying this is your view just responding to the opposition narrative in general)

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LeotisHarris's picture

November 20, 2019 at 06:49 pm

Call me crazy, NitschkeFan, but I think any day that includes "throwing a few balls in your shorts" is a good day!

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Guam's picture

November 20, 2019 at 10:45 pm

David, I couldn't disagree with you more about the Kaepernick situation. You continue to push the story line that Kaep should be playing in the NFL because of his talent. Talent is not Kaepernick's issue. His ability and willingness to create controversy and not be a good team player is his issue.

Yes, the NFL workout was likely stacked against him. Yet all he really had to do was show up, shut up and demonstrate his talent and he might have been given an opportunity (as you correctly pointed out there are teams that could use him). Yet he couldn't manage to do that and turned his NFL tryout into another media circus. He once again proved that he is a distraction and more focused on himself than any team goals.

There are lots of players (Josh Gordon, Antonio Brown, etc. etc.) who have superior talent and either are not playing or lost significant playing time because they put themselves ahead of team goals. Being a part of a team is an important part of being in the NFL and Kaep just can't seem to figure that out.

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Gort's picture

November 20, 2019 at 06:04 pm

IMO, the Kaep workout went exactly how he wanted. He just wants some headlines. He knew well ahead of time that he would not show at Atlanta. He had the alternate location, film crew, security, fans, and all the other logistics ready in advance. A radio show commentator today said he could have had 2 workouts. If he really wants to play, that is what he should have done. It was a job interview and he told his potential employers that they work for him. The NFL is a team sport and he is the opposite of The Three Musketeers:
One for all and I'm the one.

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wildbill's picture

November 20, 2019 at 08:30 pm

Crybaby Kap was beaten out by Blaine Gabbert three years ago!! And yet you think he could start for numerous teams and where is Gabbert, the person who beat his butt. As was mentioned, in shorts/no rush/no defense, there are TONS of QBs sitting at home who would have done as well. Your so called “football intelligence” is so low you do not deserve to write about pee wee football, let alone the NFL.

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DavidMichalski's picture

November 21, 2019 at 01:20 am

I’ll be sure to tune in for your next article ;)

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Guam's picture

November 21, 2019 at 08:12 am

David:

I generally like your articles and appreciate your efforts on behalf of CHTV. However your take on Kaepernick was very one sided and a number of CHTV commenters including myself are reacting to that. The Kaepernick issue has four parts: (1) talent, (2) salary demands, (3) fan reaction to his political views, and (4) front office, coach and teammate reaction to his me first attitude. Your article focused only on #1. If you believe the only thing needed to play in the NFL is talent, please review the case of Antonio Brown.

Kaepernick is not playing in the NFL due to a talent deficiency. He is not playing in the NFL due to #2, #3, and #4. His salary demands might be negotiable, but #3 and #4 will scare off teams. Your article would have been stronger if you had provided more balance by discussing issues #2, #3, and #4 as well as talent. Your article came off as an Op Ed piece by someone with an axe to grind rather than solid reporting.

And yes, I am old and hold Walter Cronkite as the gold standard in reporting. I have difficulty with the new style of "reporting" that slants everything with a point of view.

Rant over and I will now climb down off my soap box...…….:)

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DavidMichalski's picture

November 21, 2019 at 03:49 pm

Thanks for being a follower! I think teams obviously don’t usually care about point 3 because they brought back Kareem Hunt and Tyreke Hill who are violators of the domestic violence policy, so looking at it from that lens Kap’s is vilified by his right to peaceful protest. The man hasn’t broken any laws and supports so many community causes. As far as AB, he’s had plenty of chances and I suspect he’ll probably get even one more chance....

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Guam's picture

November 21, 2019 at 08:39 pm

I think you might be missing the point about #3. Kaep is absolutely entitled to peaceful protest. So are those who oppose his viewpoint. The cornerstone issue for the NFL is less politics than business which was hurt by the economic boycott generated by Kaep's opponents. Hunt and Hill committed egregious acts, but they didn't hurt the NFL financially. Kaep's opponents did hurt the NFL through diminished TV viewership and merchandise sales.

Teams will be very reluctant to sign Kaep and risk additional financial damage. You may not like business reasons overruling talent or civil rights concerns, but that doesn't make those business issues any less real or impactful for NFL teams.

And thank you for your direct response to my concerns. I enjoy interaction with the author and appreciate your willingness to do that.

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DavidMichalski's picture

November 21, 2019 at 09:52 pm

What about Nike then? They signed Kap buy tons of ads on Sundays and their stock actually went up after they signed him. I also think the cash cow that the NFL is ultimately wouldn’t slow down the advertising traffic if Kap latched onto a team.

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Guam's picture

November 22, 2019 at 07:48 am

Viewership in the two years after Kaep (and others) started taking a knee was down 18%. Try negotiating a new TV contract or advertising rates with viewership off that much. Unfortunately for Kaep, he has become the lightning rod for the whole protest. I think you underestimate just how powerful that protest was. The NFL gets it and I don't blame any team for avoiding him purely for business reasons.

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DavidMichalski's picture

November 21, 2019 at 03:52 pm

Point 4, his tryout had 24 teams committed to attending which certainly leaves the door open for collusion. 3 years after playing a down in the NFL he still had the interest of 24 teams.

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Guam's picture

November 21, 2019 at 08:42 pm

24 teams attending and no offers to date despite a number of teams that could really use improved play at QB. So why not?

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Gort's picture

November 21, 2019 at 09:43 pm

2, 3, & 4.

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DavidMichalski's picture

November 21, 2019 at 09:58 pm

Could still have a mandate black balling him, it’s week 12, I’m sure the league office didn’t appreciate being called out. If he doesn’t get signed this offseason I’ll concede and say it isn’t happening. I’d definitely like to see him at least get a chance and if he fails he fails.

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Guam's picture

November 22, 2019 at 08:00 am

Would the NFL actually be dumb enough to continue blackballing him after they already paid him off for collusion once before? If Kaep could prove they colluded again that lawsuit would be worth a fortune. Not saying the NFL isn't that stupid, but I might look for other more logical reasons first since I am sure the NFL's lawyers have counselled strongly about further collusion.

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AgrippaLII's picture

November 21, 2019 at 12:01 am

Who really cares about Kaepernick? He's done! There isn't an owner or GM in the NFL that stupid and Al Davis is long gone.

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PatrickGB's picture

November 21, 2019 at 10:12 am

Any team could have tried out Kap. They didn’t. The league got flack and didn’t want to appear bad. Kap wanted to show he was legit. He is not and it’s become a media circus.Ugh, why would one even comment on such an obvious mess. Just let it go.
On the other subjects, any team has a chance to beat any other team on any given game day. But some teams are better than others.

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DavidMichalski's picture

November 21, 2019 at 12:01 pm

Right, but then Kaepernick filed a grievance against the NFL and had a good chance to win in court so the NFL paid him off and gave him an open tryout that 24 teams had originally committed to attending. Again not infallible evidence but it does show that the powers that be were most likely colluding against him. Again, just admit you hate his guts for taking a knee. At the end of the day, he’s not like Tyreke Hill or Kareem Hunt who are both guilty of domestic violence, who everyone in the NFL goes hush hush about.

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BobWellhoefer's picture

November 21, 2019 at 11:54 am

I totally agree with you about Kaep, David. Lotta haters out there....get over it folks!

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DavidMichalski's picture

November 21, 2019 at 12:14 pm

Any thoughts on Garrett or the NFL officiating? Lol

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flackcatcher's picture

November 21, 2019 at 08:18 pm

Until the owners deal with the wreck that is Rodger Goodell, more of this will become the norm. Garrett is lucky he is not facing a murder charge, and the officiating is something we at CHTV have been discussing well for over three years now. I suspect the owners are trying to use both as 'chips' in their upcoming battle with the NFLPA. Wonderful...////

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Gort's picture

November 21, 2019 at 09:45 pm

There is nothing funny about Garrett.

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DavidMichalski's picture

November 21, 2019 at 10:01 pm

The lol was more responding to how there were 3 other points and how much of a lightning rod Kap is. This Garrett thing has really turned into a shit show. If I’m Rudolph and I didn’t say anything; I’m not filing one lawsuit, I’m filing 2.

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4thand10's picture

November 21, 2019 at 11:03 pm

I just don’t know a way of fixing the officiating just short of bringing Ed the Hocmaster back out of retirement. Or shortening some commercials revenue ( which will never happen) and bringing instant replay back. Who knows, because they even screw up the interpretation of instant replay. Try to convince people that the sky is not blue or what’s up is down. It’s just nuts and makes it hard to watch. Can’t hardly predict wins and losses...because quite literally in “close “games usually there are about 4-6 crucial screw up calls by the officials. I do t know if that’s an actual statistic as I truly don’t give a crap, but it surely seems that way from the ol eyeball test.

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