Grading the Pack - Week 7 (Offense & Defense)
By AndyHerman
The talk this week has been whether or not McCarthy, Capers and the schemes on offense and defense were to blame more than the play of the actual players themselves. The offense seemed entirely disjointed, the defense was constantly out of position and even when Aaron Jones was running great, Green Bay quickly seemed to transition away from him.
After watching the film thoroughly, I can say that this was a poorly coached performance and the coaching staffs should take a long look at how they want to gameplan going forward. The amount of times that the defense was out of position, miscommunicating or not on the same page were almost incalculable. As for the offense, does anyone have a semblance of an idea of what the gameplan was on Sunday? The idea seemed to be to get Aaron Jones going, but once he was they quickly moved away from it and the offense was in chaos.
Green Bay has to do a better job of putting their playmakers in a position to succeed and they need to get some of their stars performing the way they should be; specifically HaHa Clinton-Dix. If Mike McCarthy cannot scheme open a handful of receivers a game to get Hundley some quick-easy passes, then it’s time to find someone who can. Over the rest of the season we are about to see what this team and coaching staff is made of. The bye comes at a perfect time but if the game against New Orleans was an early indicator, we could be in for a long rest of the season.
Top 3 Offensive Performers
Aaron Jones +2.35
David Bakhtiari +2.25
Jordy Nelson +1.15
13 personnel here on 21yd run... Excellent by RB to press hole and then incredible vision. But the 3 TEs make this play on backside.. pic.twitter.com/1EsiosrEs7
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) October 23, 2017
Top 3 Defensive Performers
Kenny Clark +2.60
Mike Daniels +0.85
Damarious Randall +0.55
#Packers Kenny Clark showing some pass rushing promise.. QBs see that color flash up the middle, it undoubtedly hurries their process/motion pic.twitter.com/Rn5ezALmFb
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) October 24, 2017
Bottom 3 Offensive Performers
Bryan Bulaga -1.25
Justin McCray -1.00
Randall Cobb -0.70
Bottom 3 Defensive Performers
HaHa Clinton-Dix -3.05
Josh Jones -2.50
Kevin King -2.30
Everyone in man, Jones looks like he should be covering the TE, both 27 & 50 take Kamara & the TE is left wide open. Brees missed it. pic.twitter.com/WpfCdlKBS0
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) October 25, 2017
Quarterback
Brett Hundley +0.65
This wasn’t a banner day for Hundley by any stretch of the imagination, but he played within the confines of the offense, didn’t force anything until the last offensive play of the game, and showed off his athleticism. For better or worse, the bulk of Hundley’s positive grade was due to his running and escapability. If his grade was based purely on passing it would have been well in the negative.
Running Back
Aaron Jones +2.35
Ty Montgomery +0.3
Aaron Ripkowski -0.4
No matter what happens the rest of the way, Aaron Jones will remain one of the huge bright spots of this season. Green Bay has not only found its long-term running back, they’ve found a damn good one in Jones. His blend of vision, quickness and power makes him a true all-around back and he already is quite possibly the biggest playmaker on the offense.
Aaron Jones 46yd TD run.. 1back Power out of 12 personnel. Such a good read by RB.. DL slanting, LBs scraping.. Seas part right up the gut! pic.twitter.com/ijJUzg0bTE
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) October 23, 2017
More on Montgomery from Cory: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/corys-corner-whats-next-for-ty-montgomery-533
Wide Receiver
Jordy Nelson +1.15
Davante Adams +0.5
Geronimo Allison -0.2
Randall Cobb -0.7
With Aaron Rodgers being out we’re likely going to see less and less impressive receiver grades as the season goes on. It’s one thing for the receivers to get open, but if they aren’t getting fed the football it’s going to be hard to grade very well. Nelson and Adams did their best besides not seeing much of the football.
Tight End
Martellus Bennett +0.9
Richard Rodgers +0.0
Lance Kendricks -0.2
Bennett played one of his better games of the season against New Orleans and was active in both the pass and run game. His run blocking is what set him apart in this one.
Offensive Line
David Bakhtiari +2.25
Corey Linsley +0.55
Jahri Evans +0.4
Justin McCray -1.0
Bryan Bulaga -1.25
It was really great to see Bakhtiari back to his old self on Sunday. If he can play at his usual Pro Bowl level that will be one less thing this offense needs to worry about and Hundley can play with confidence that his blind side is protected. Now Green Bay just needs to get Bulaga to get back to playing as his usual high level as well.
First big run for rookie Aaron Jones..
11 personnel split zone. TE Bennett cuts Jordan, good double by RG/C into lap of backside LB... pic.twitter.com/2RemI7ra8T
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) October 23, 2017
Defensive Line
Kenny Clark +2.6
Mike Daniels +0.85
Ricky Jean Francois +0.0
Dean Lowry -0.5
Quinton Dial -0.8
Mike Daniels gets more OL on the ground than any DL in the NFL...
Why? Understanding and usage of leverage/balance/loose hips/flexibility pic.twitter.com/IPnOUCJ0AQ
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) October 25, 2017
I’ve run out of things to say about Daniels and Clark. Just watch them and enjoy them. Quinton Dial has been a complete bust since coming over from San Francisco.
I love watching a run for 2yds from 76/97.. Boring. No fantasy points. No celebrations. Just Daniels/Clark at the office taking on 4 OL pic.twitter.com/ygo7a67lPr
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) October 25, 2017
Edge
Nick Perry +0.2
Clay Matthews -0.35
Chris Odom -0.6
Kyler Fackrell -0.95
Clay Matthews still so spry, bouncy, athletic, relentless.. Loves to shoot gaps and time snaps. Welcome to NFL Ramczyk - no chance here pic.twitter.com/gQH5uiGD4e
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) October 25, 2017
Perry still isn’t 100% back to his normal self and this was Clay’s least impactful game of the season. To be fair that wasn’t entirely unexpected as Brees is so adept at getting rid of the ball quickly. Green Bay schemed their linebackers to try and knock down passes more than I’ve seen them in the past.
Just raw power from Nick Perry. pic.twitter.com/qiL0f6yTwJ
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) October 25, 2017
Linebacker
Blake Martinez +0.15
Jake Ryan -0.35
Another incredibly active game from Blake Martinez but he still has a tendency to hesitate at times. He’s so incredibly close to playing at a Pro Bowl level and just a tad more aggression could get him there.
A look at why Blake Martinez leads the Packers in tackles... Great angle, aggressive pursuit and strong tackle. pic.twitter.com/t1wQgPWlyj
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) October 25, 2017
Hybrid
Josh Jones -2.5
This was Jones’ worst game of the season but Green Bay is doing him a disservice by having him in at linebacker in obvious run downs. What is Jones supposed to do against 300+ pound offensive linemen? Once Green Bay gets him in space and allows him to be aggressive he will start grading much better.
Cornerback
Damarious Randall +0.55
Davon House +0.2
Josh Hawkins +0.1
Kevin King -2.3
What an absolute turnaround by Damarious Randall. Obviously his interception in the end zone was one of the bigger plays of the game, especially on defense. After four solid weeks of football, Randall now finds himself grading positively overall for the season. House had an up and down game while Kevin King had one of those classic rookie games where he will need to find a way to learn from his mistakes and bounce back.
Safety
Marwin Evans +0.2
Jermaine Whitehead +0.05
Kentrell Brice -1.25
HaHa Clinton-Dix -3.05
No player on the team has been more disappointing then Clinton-Dix this season and this was his worst game of the year. His angles are bad, his footwork is bad, and for some reason he has lost any aggression. I fully understand he’s playing as the last line of defense and needs to play carefully but this is way too conservative. Green Bay isn’t going to do anything on defense until they find a way for Clinton-Dix and Brice to play at a much higher level.
How many Packers does it take to get Mark Ingram down?! Almost 5 full extra yards after initial contact. Brutal. pic.twitter.com/pnyCp47nuy
— Andy Herman (@SconnieSports) October 25, 2017
To find an updated, running total of the grades throughout the season, click here: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/grading-the-pack-regular-season-totals-454
How I Grade
- Each player starts by getting a zero or neutral grade on a play. If they performed as expected on a play, their grade stays at zero.
- For a slightly above or below average play, the player gets graded -0.1 or +0.1. The vast majority of grades on the vast majority of plays are graded -0.1, 0, or +0.1.
- The highest and lowest grades on an individual play are +2.0 and -2.0 respectively. These would be large, game-changing plays.
- I won’t grade a play negatively if I cannot tell which player was at fault.
- Most of the time it’s impossible to tell the play, so I’m not grading on the execution of the play call as an NFL coach would.
- The goal of this exercise is to grade every snap over the course of the season to get a long-term view of which performers are performing well and which are not meeting expectations. This is very similar to what Pro Football Focus tries to achieve. Is it perfect? No. But what you are getting is a consistent grader who is watching specifically Packer games and putting multiple hours into every week to breakdown film and assign grades.
- Grades are for offense and defense only (including two point conversions). Special teams does not factor in.
- Preseason does not have All-22 film which makes this exercise even more challenging than usual
- Bigger plays in the game such as a 4th and 1 or a two-point conversion are weighted higher than say a normal 1st and 10 play to start the game.
- Lastly, the grades do not necessarily reflect who the best players are on an overall basis. As an example, Morgan Burnett may grade almost two full points below Jermaine Whitehead. Does this mean that Whitehead is the superior player to Burnett? No. It means that given the opportunities each player was given, Whitehead performed at a higher level for this individual game.
Please feel free to ask questions or comment below!
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Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and is an Editor for Packer Report. Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder - follow him on Twitter @AndyHermanNFL!
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Comments (18)
Denver
October 28, 2017 at 05:38 pm
I will never underappreciate Burnett again...hope he is back soon or it looks like this D has no chance.
NickPerry
October 29, 2017 at 07:38 am
You do know Thompson will let Bennett walk at the end of the year right? Just like just about everyone else 30 and over.
pacman
October 28, 2017 at 07:16 pm
I love these "what you might have missed" snippets. Thank you.
The last one on the Ingram tackle - some coach should be fired for this. How much brain power does it take for someone to realize that if you grab the runners legs - or just one, he's not going anywhere. This has been a tackling problem for YEARS. I say again - some coach(es) should be fired for this!
Point-Packer
October 29, 2017 at 01:55 am
HHCD is another 1st round bust for TT. Lets just admit it. And all the homers, and writers, who blindly thought he was anything near elite are off their rockers.
stockholder
October 29, 2017 at 08:05 am
With so many fans against Caper's coaching? No. Darrenn Sharper, casey Hayward, and several others, still went on to play better in other defenses. (When people got down on them. ) HHCD is not injury prone. And he would be quickly picked up. Until we see better from Capers. I 'm not ready to dump anybody. And that includes Randall. It's time to look at the coaching. Their not playing all-out. HHCD has been up and down. Much like Burnett. So Look at Capers game plan. Not who you think is a bust.
Point-Packer
October 29, 2017 at 02:00 am
Hey Oppy -
At some point you ridiculed me for thinking the Bennett/Kendricks acquisition was a stupid player personnel move. I had hoped they would have just re-signed Cook. Well, Kendricks is a special teamer and Bennett is retiring after playing like absolute garbage this year. I was supposed to look back and regret my comment, at some point. Now it just proves that more than not you're just full of homer BS.
porupack
October 29, 2017 at 03:31 am
I also thought it was a high risk move not to re-sign Cook. You just can't take it for granted that Cook developed well into the scheme and be the valuable piece for ARodgers. To just think you can plug a new guy in, and not skip a beat is big risk. I get the issue with salary cap, and pressure on TT, and though I thought they should have danced a bit more with Cook, I am surprised how Bennett has disappointed. But, I wouldn't give up on Bennett yet. He just might be Hundley's best friend soon.
Point-Packer
October 29, 2017 at 10:52 am
If motivation is any factor, I would find it unlikely. He has looked unmotivated all season, slow, mopey. And then he announces he's done with football. I think it's more likely he just goes through the motions.
Thegreatreynoldo
October 29, 2017 at 02:27 am
Thanks for doing these grades. There are always surprises. Knew Dix, Jones and Brice were hot garbage, and that Bulaga wasn't so good. I saw McCray make some big blocks, so that was a surprise, though NO had a nice push so someone had to be having a rough day besides Bulaga. I didn't think King had a good day, but didn't realize it was that bad. Interesting that Nelson and Adams had positive grades.
QB grades are a different animal. This is the NFL, a passing league. If your QB doesn't have a good-sized positive grade, the offense is in trouble.
porupack
October 29, 2017 at 03:34 am
Forgot to thank you Andrew for these great example clips to back up your grades. Excellent work. Entertaining and informative.
flackcatcher
October 29, 2017 at 07:33 am
Andrew, nicely done. If anything the all 22 shows how disjointed this team was last week. Despite some of the poor play backside in the second half, this game was winnable all way up to the last 5 minutes. As you say, this lost belongs squarely on Mike McCarthy as HC and Dom Capers as DC. They had no excuse for not being able to make adjustments in coaching or gameplay.
DD
October 29, 2017 at 10:40 am
Grades much to high for both sides of the ball. Running back Jones yes. Defense? Are you serious! Not prepared, confused, lost, no rush, on and on. Capers has lost it. As far as offense, MM not getting it done at all. I'll be somewhat nice until Monday night's game against the Lions. This will, and should, determine the fates of MM, DC, and TT. If it doesn't most realistic fans will be wild. To long, too much of wait until next year and development.
Thegreatreynoldo
October 31, 2017 at 04:04 am
Even if it is true that Andy grades too high, which I do not concede, as long as he is consistent the grades are both interesting and useful.
4zone
October 29, 2017 at 01:03 pm
Grades, shmades. I understand the need to keep us dimwits entertained but in the end, what do we know.
Management never consults the peanut gallery when they make their decisions. So sit back, watch the train wreck in slow mo and get ready for the combine when we can start this charade all over again.
GBPDAN1
October 29, 2017 at 03:09 pm
Thank you, Andrew, for the time you put into these performance reports / grades. I always enjoy reading this. I hope you have high grades to report after the Lions game next week!
Dave Hanner
October 29, 2017 at 07:45 pm
Great writing! The score of Randall Cobb sticks out. This has to be the last year for him at $10million. Gotta give the money to Adams
joelilli
October 30, 2017 at 04:23 pm
We need a long overdue change in coaching/management. They both. has failed miserably in the defense for several years relying on on their QB to bail them out. Plus not surrounding their QB with marquee players. Now that he is out (AR) if they win any games at all it will be a miracle.
RobinsonDavis
October 31, 2017 at 02:13 pm
Thanks for the honest and insightful look, Andrew!. My thoughts exactly about Josh Jones too. He's not being utilized the way you would think we should. I still think the Burnett injury is part of the reason why, but why continue to put him into situations where he will not excel.
Also, still wondering where Kendricks has been in our passing game,why we run 5 receivers ALL short on any passing down, and why we run with 8+ guys in the box on 3rd and anything more than 1. To best help Hundley and the offense, we need to keep the safeties honest.