Grading the Pack - Week 14 (Offense & Defense)

Aaron Rodgers is back! But would he be if Green Bay hadn’t secured a second straight overtime victory, this time against the lowly Cleveland Browns? Maybe not. It probably shouldn’t have been as difficult as it was but this is the NFL and on any given Sunday you have to earn your victories. It wasn’t pretty, in fact it was really ugly, but Green Bay was able to pull off a win and keep their playoff chances alive.

It was a really odd day for grades. There were certain plays that were outright difficult to grade. On Brett Hundley’s touchdown pass to Jamaal Williams early in the 1st quarter he probably should have received a negative grade. He missed the read, the open receiver, and bailed out of the pocket which would have caused the play to fail 99 times out of 100. On this day though, Cleveland blew the coverage, Williams was wide open, and Hundley found him for the touchdown.

Another example was a huge 4th down play in the fourth quarter. Aaron Jones leaked out left, seemingly expecting a pitch. The communication and play seemed entirely off and Hundley ended up taking a loss on a completely blown play. It was a play that deserved a massively poor grade, but who was at fault? Did Hundley miss Jones? Did Jones go the wrong way? Was it just a bad play call or a play that wasn’t practiced enough to be successful in a huge moment? It’s nearly impossible to tell. If I had to guess I’d say that Hundley blew it, but without knowing for sure I didn’t take points away. *Update - this has been regraded to a negative play for Hundley after reviewing comments from McCarthy & Hundley*

While there were some uniquely graded plays and players who graded higher and lower than I expected, it was easy to see that Davante Adams played a huge game, especially late, and was deserving of the game ball for his performance. The biggest takeaway from Sunday’s game may have been the realization by everyone that this team needs to pony up and pay Davante Adams and make sure he’s a Packer long term.

Top 3 Offensive Performers

Davante Adams +3.50
Brett Hundley +1.55
Jamaal Williams +1.10

Top 3 Defensive Performers

Damarious Randall +1.25
Morgan Burnett +0.9
Josh Jones +0.85

Bottom 3 Offensive Performers

Jason Spriggs -2.65
Jahri Evans -0.75
Justin McCray -0.50

Bottom 3 Defensive Performers

Ahmad Brooks -1.65
Kyler Fackrell -1.45
Blake Martinez -0.80

Quarterback

Brett Hundley +1.55

Some people won’t like this take, but give Mike McCarthy a lot of credit for the game-plan on offense this week. Yes it was a struggle and the offense didn’t get going until they went no-huddle late in the game, but McCarthy consistently put the offense and especially Brett Hundley in a position to be successful. Most importantly he put Hundley in a position to not make any game changing mistakes. This game was probably an interception or fumble away from going Cleveland’s way. McCarthy kept the offense simple and safe. The result was just enough to get Green Bay out with a victory. Give credit to Hundley, too. With the game on the line he performed his best and ultimately got Green Bay a victory. I didn’t expect Hundley to grade this high but his ability to make plays when needed and stay safe with the football lead to a really solid overall day and a really solid overall grade.

Running Back

Jamaal Williams +1.1
Aaron Jones -0.1
Aaron Ripkowski -0.1

Jamaal Williams did the best he could without much space to work with. As has been the case all season, Williams ran hard and determined. The holes were usually non-existent and Williams took what was there and didn’t try to do too much. My biggest issue here is that I wanted to see more of Aaron Jones. Yes, Williams is a really solid back and arguably should be the number one back at this time. But Jones can change the game in an instant and it seems like a concerted effort should be made to get the ball in his hands at least 10 times per game. Hopefully that changes this week.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams +3.5
Randall Cobb +0.0
Trevor Davis +0.0
Geronimo Allison -0.15
Jordy Nelson -0.2

Devante Adams is just at a completely different level than the rest of the receivers on the roster at this point. With Aaron Rodgers coming back it’s quite possible we see an increase in performance by Jordy Nelson due to the chemistry those two have together. Make no mistake, however, Davante Adams is by far and away the best receiver on this roster. Adams comes open faster, and more often, than any other receiver on the team. That’s not to say the other receivers are bad. Cobb excels at working open on broken plays and Jordy’s timing with Rodgers is impeccable. But from this point forward, Adams should be looked at as the alpha male of this receiving corps.

More on Adams from Zach: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/packers-davante-adams-earns-the-endorsement-of-aaron-rodgers-415

Tight End

Lance Kendricks +0.35
Richard Rodgers -0.45

It may not have been a show stealing performance from Lance Kendricks but it was leaps and bounds better than what we’ve seen as of late. Kendricks particularly played well in the run game, something that he usually struggles with. Both tight ends were fairly consistent in this game but once again both struggled to make any major impact in the passing game.

Offensive Line

Corey Linsley +0.75
David Bakhtiari +0.65
Lane Taylor +0.15
Justin McCray -0.5
Jahri Evans -0.75
Jason Spriggs -2.85

There was a decent amount of chatter this week that people weren’t noticing Jason Spriggs as much which obviously must have meant he was playing ok and showing signs of improvement. Through the first 33 plays of this game I had Spriggs graded as a 0.0 or neutral grade. This would have been a massive improvement from the grades he had received the past few weeks. However after a solid start to the game things completely fell apart. You may not have noticed Spriggs because Hundley was getting the ball out of his hands quickly, but the struggles were absolutely still evident on tape. Spriggs has been better in the run game but his pass sets are borderline brutal. It would truly be a shame if Rodgers came back only to take a season-ending hit because Spriggs completely whiffed on his man. It may sound harsh but Hundley took a couple of serious hits due to Spriggs’ play. The rest of the o-line was ok, but had one of their lowest graded days of the season. McCray had the third lowest grade on the team and only played nine plays… his struggles continue as well.

Defensive Line

Mike Daniels +0.1
Kenny Clark -0.05
Quinton Dial -0.05
Montravious Adams -0.05
Dean Lowry -0.1

As you can see, everyone on the defensive line was just about average or neutral on the day. For the most part the run defense was ok, but the line struggled to get much of a pass rush. There were a lot of stalemates throughout the day and a sever lack of big plays from the defensive line. They did open up some plays for the linebackers but all-in-all it was a lackluster performance. Both the defensive line and the edge rushers absolutely have to find a way to get more pressure on the quarterback going forward.

Edge

Clay Matthews +0.6
Vince Biegel +0.2
Kyler Fackrell -1.45
Ahmad Brooks -1.65

I shudder to think what these grades would have looked like if Joe Thomas was playing. Clay Matthews made a couple of plays late but for the vast majority of this game there was no pressure on the quarterback at all. Fackrell and Brooks were complete non-factors and had very poor performances. The saving grace was Matthews’ hit on Kizer in overtime that forced the interception. Kizer had a receiver wide open and if it weren’t for Matthews it could have very easily been a game winning touchdown pass instead of an INT.

Linebacker

Jake Ryan -0.3
Blake Martinez -0.8

As has been the case for the vast majority of the season, Ryan and Martinez both had their ups and downs. There’s been a lot of buzz in particular about Martinez’ play and how he is having a Pro Bowl caliber season. I don’t see Martinez having quite that kind of impact. When you watch players like Shazier, Kuechly, or Wagner you see them consistently make plays that Martinez isn’t. Their ability to disengage from blocks and cover down the field really set them apart. Martinez is going to be a major player for Green Bay going forward and he’s a really nice player, but he’s not at that Pro Bowl level yet.

Cornerback

Damarious Randall +1.25
Davon House +0.25
Josh Hawkins +0.2

So the fun story this week was the Twitter battle between Damarious Randall & Josh Gordon. While the Twitter battle was fun, the on field battle was better. Dusty Evely posted a great thread (below) highlighting their battle from Sunday. Both had their moments but Randall had a really strong day. There’s no question that Damarious had some help over the top but Randall’s performance was a winning performance and overall he got the better of Gordon on this day. Hawkins hasn’t played as much these past two weeks but I really like the improvement that he’s shown. He will be thrust into a more prominent role this week with House out and I’m really excited to see how he responds.

Here is the link to the Randall thread from Dusty: https://twitter.com/All22Talk/status/941149479218171907

Safety

Morgan Burnett +0.9
Josh Jones +0.85
Jermaine Whitehead +0.1
HaHa Clinton-Dix -0.75

The story of Green Bay’s defense this week was solid play from their secondary but absolutely no pressure up front. Like the cornerbacks, the safeties held up well and did the best they could to hold up their end of the bargain. Clinton-Dix wasn’t having a great day but stepped up big towards the end of the game, including the interception in overtime. Morgan Burnett was mostly at fault for the early Josh Gordon touchdown but had a very strong game outside of that play. Jones showed improvement and I continue to be impressed by Jermaine Whitehead. Whitehead, in my opinion, is very close to being a big player for this team. He needs to get better, but if he can make that last jump he could be a starting caliber safety in this league. In the past few weeks he’s moved ahead of both Josh Hawkins and Marwin Evans for playing time. *Update - I had mistakinly written (and graded) the interception for Clinton-Dix instead of Josh Jones, this has since been corrected*

To find an updated, running total of the grades throughout the season, click here: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/grading-the-pack-regular-season-totals-454

Note: In these articles I often add tweets from Ben Fennell, Zach Kruse & Dusty Evely. All have been gracious enough to allow me to do so and are phenomenal follows. Please make sure you are supporting and following each of them! Thank you!

How I Grade

  • Each player starts by getting a zero or neutral grade on a play. If they performed as expected on a play, their grade stays at zero.
  • For a slightly above or below average play, the player gets graded -0.1 or +0.1. The vast majority of grades on the vast majority of plays are graded -0.1, 0, or +0.1.
  • The highest and lowest grades on an individual play are +2.0 and -2.0 respectively. These would be large, game-changing plays.
  • I won’t grade a play negatively if I cannot tell which player was at fault.
  • Most of the time it’s impossible to tell the play, so I’m not grading on the execution of the play call as an NFL coach would.
  • The goal of this exercise is to grade every snap over the course of the season to get a long-term view of which performers are performing well and which are not meeting expectations. This is very similar to what Pro Football Focus tries to achieve. Is it perfect? No. But what you are getting is a consistent grader who is watching specifically Packer games and putting multiple hours into every week to breakdown film and assign grades.
  • Grades are for offense and defense only (including two point conversions). Special teams does not factor in.

 

PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.

__________________________

Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and is an Editor for Packer Report. Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder - follow him on Twitter @AndyHermanNFL!

__________________________

NFL Categories: 
0 points
 

Comments (16)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
TarynsEyes's picture

December 15, 2017 at 12:03 pm

There will always be nugget to be found on both the defensive and offensive sides of the ball. Ignoring the game being won and even a loss if happened, this game is a ' burn the tape ' qualifier if ever there is one. There is other than the fan hype which is..Kool-aid-ian on both sides, nothing really in this game will have a meaningful input to what needs be achieved other than the expected hope that Rodgers brings. The Browns game was a disaster and something new and better had best be in the scheme and over all play. : )

0 points
0
0
Turophile's picture

December 15, 2017 at 04:53 pm

I like the nugget that is Jermaine Whitehead.

I'm not at all sure that Burnett will be back next year (I think that is at least partly why J.Jones was drafted), but if Whitehead can get better the loss is further minimised.

0 points
0
0
GBPDAN1's picture

December 15, 2017 at 08:20 pm

Seeing Randell in the plus category on a weekly basis (since being benched in the Chicago game) is encouraging. Seeing Spriggs constantly in the negative category is disappointing to say the least.

I hope Spriggs doesn't get Rodgers injured !

0 points
0
0
dobber's picture

December 15, 2017 at 04:21 pm

On the bright side, ARod has outstanding pocket awareness, and lousy protection here would be on his frontside, not his blindside. Hundley has none.

0 points
0
0
croatpackfan's picture

December 16, 2017 at 03:54 am

Who is Randell?

0 points
0
0
Roadrunner23's picture

December 15, 2017 at 12:38 pm

Hopefully Rodgers coming back will inspire the whole team to step up their game. The Defense has been an injured, dis-organized rag-tag mess all season long and will not improve until McCarthy grows a pair and -FIRES CAPERS!
But this is now and hopefully with an improved running game and Rodgers on the field the Packers should be able to play ball control and keep the Defense off the field (that is if Spriggs doesn't whiff badly and cost them the season). Max protect and play ball control, it may be boring but I believe that is this years version of the Packers only chance to win out.
GO PACK!

0 points
0
0
CJ Bauckham's picture

December 15, 2017 at 01:57 pm

I've read, per McCarthy's explanation, that the 4th down run was a misdirection they had set up for earlier in the game. Was 100% supposed to go to Jones to the outside

0 points
0
0
Razer's picture

December 15, 2017 at 02:08 pm

Just when I was convinced that we had a chance this weekend, Andrew pulls up all this tape on our defense. It never ceases to amaze me at how bad this defense really is. We were lucky to be playing the Browns because a good team would have buried us last weekend. Kizer's inexperience showed in OT with two guys in behind our secondary running free.

How can this defense not get better year after year? I am not even talking about the talent. It seems like confusion is the common language and missed assignments occur on every play. Just awful.

Thanks Andrew for slapping me with reality. Honey - where's my beer...

0 points
0
0
GBfaninMn's picture

December 15, 2017 at 02:13 pm

On the clip of the Crowell run, why the hell did Ha-ha wait so long to turn it on and tackle him? It's like he stood there for a couple seconds waiting to see if Crowell would be nice enough to run straight at him. The he finally realized he'd have to either go after him or just lay down and take a nap! Seriously!?

0 points
0
0
TXCHEESE's picture

December 15, 2017 at 03:39 pm

Dix has been playing like that all year. He wasn't that great last year, but happened to get a bunch of gift interceptions that made his numbers look good. I constantly see him retreating when a receiver or back is in the open field. I hope one of the young guys eventually takes over for him, that will actually take an angle and go whack the ball carrier. The Pack looked bad on both sides of the trenches last week. Maybe the Browns actually have some talent up front, because if they don't fare better against Carolina, it could be a very sad return for Rodgers.

0 points
0
0
Doug Niemczynski's picture

December 15, 2017 at 04:15 pm

When you have a pass rush then that creates opportunities for the secondary to look awesome. do until The packers can get a pass rush going we will keep blaming our secondary for our main issue.

0 points
0
0
dobber's picture

December 15, 2017 at 04:19 pm

Spriggs, McCray, Evans all carrying negative grades...essentially the whole right side is playing poorly. Makes you wonder if it's all that bad, or if one player is dragging down the others.

0 points
0
0
croatpackfan's picture

December 16, 2017 at 03:58 am

Andrew, again very nice article, but...

Brett Hundley and Aaron Jones clearly said that 4th down mistake was on Brett Hundley. So, you do not need to presume, or ask yourself. Therefore I believe Brett Hundley grade is too high.

Also, as I remember Ha-Ha had interception at the end of the first half and Josh Jones had interception in OT. But I might be wrong...

I kindly ask you to re-watch again and confirm who is right.

Thank you!

0 points
0
0
AndyHerman's picture

December 16, 2017 at 08:21 am

Croat, thanks a ton for posting! I have updated the article, as well as the grades for Hundley, Jones & HaHa. Somehow I had in my head that Clinton-Dix made the pick in OT but you are absolutely correct it was Jones. All scores have been updated. Thanks a ton!

-Andy-

0 points
0
0
croatpackfan's picture

December 16, 2017 at 03:58 pm

I have no doubts that you'll do it correctly. This is why interactions of you, writers and us, readers are important.

That is why I like very much your articles. You are correcting my experience of the game in much larger scale... And I am grateful for that.

0 points
0
0
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

December 16, 2017 at 12:22 pm

I'd love to see a breakdown of # of positive, neutral, and negative grades next to each player's grade. For example, McCray's grade could be one really terrible grade and 8 neutral ones or other permutation.

Even so, this has been a really nice series of articles. I used to forget that we can give a thumbs up for each article, but since your articles have come out, particularly since they don't generate as many comments as one might think, I've made a point to give your article a thumbs up lately.

Sadly, I am the only one so far who has given a thumbs up to this article.

0 points
0
0