" Low bust rate."

MooPack,

"Busts" occur at every position and in every round, but of course are much more likely in round 2 vs. 1, round 3 vs. round 2, round 4 vs. round 3, round 5 vs. round 4, round 6 vs. round 5, and round 7 vs. round 6.

Do you remember offensive tackle Tony Mandarich?

The Packers had the 2nd overall pick in the 1989 NFL draft and chose Tony Mandarich over Barry Sanders, Derrick Thomas, Deion Sanders and Steve Atwater - all first round picks and future Hall of Famers.

There were 12 rounds then and 340 players picked and the only Hall of Famers were picked in the first round and within the 1st 20 picks.

25 of the 337 players drafted would make the Pro Bowl at least once at sometime in their career and of those 25:

10 were picked in the 1st round,
5 in the 2nd round,
2 in the 3rd round,
1 in the 4th round,
2 in the 5th round,
1 in the 6th round,
1 in the 7th round,
1 in the 10th round,
1 in the 12th round,
and one was
1 of 5 supplemental picks.

One Question for you. How many O-linemen on our team right now were 1st round picks? Or 2nd round picks? 3rd round picks?

We don't need to waste our first pick on a O-lineman or WR this year. We need to have a plan and stick to it. Unless we know the next Anthony Munoz is available to pick, which we don't, we need TE and Edge a lot worse. We have a strong O-line group. We don't even HAVE a TE group at this point.

"Busts" occur at every position and in every round, but of course are much more likely in round 2 vs. 1, round 3 vs. round 2, round 4 vs. round 3, round 5 vs. round 4, round 6 vs. round 5, and round 7 vs. round 6.

Do you remember offensive tackle Tony Mandarich?

The Packers had the 2nd overall pick in the 1989 NFL draft and chose Tony Mandarich over Barry Sanders, Derrick Thomas, Deion Sanders and Steve Atwater - all first round picks and future Hall of Famers.

There were 12 rounds then and 340 players picked and the only Hall of Famers were picked in the first round and within the 1st 20 picks.

25 of the 337 players drafted would make the Pro Bowl at least once at sometime in their career and of those 25:

10 were picked in the 1st round,
5 in the 2nd round,
2 in the 3rd round,
1 in the 4th round,
2 in the 5th round,
1 in the 6th round,
1 in the 7th round,
1 in the 10th round,
1 in the 12th round,
and one was
1 of 5 supplemental picks.

You might want to look at how recent SEC OTs have faired in the NFL. Not great Bob.

Perfect choicesw

I could understand if one of the big three falls to 15 that the Pack wold take one. However I hope one does not fall as the opportunity cost of not drafting an Edge would be too great. Particularly if there is a premier Edge Rusher on the board e.g Nolan Smith or Miles Murphy. In fact. on offense I think a TE like Kincaid or Washington would be preferable to OL. We drafted three OL last year and really do not even know what we have. Not to mention Caleb Jones the massive 370 lb Goliath.

I watched some clips last week of Mazi Smith knocking him on his keister a couple times. I'm not very enamored now. Smith seems good though.

Bergeron is projected to Guard, but I think he stays at RT. 34"-0 arms, wide wingspan. Four-year starter, All-ACC. Put Murphy in his place. Takes no prisoners. Probably lower second round. The Scouts know about him, blew holes open for Sean Tucker.

Being that Bak basically was quoted as saying the Packers don't have much of a chance this year, I'm all for trading him. We don't need any naysayers in the locker room.

I’m thinking let d Bach start the season while breaking in the new tackle than before trade deadline some team will be desperate for him and value will be highest. D Bach will not be with packers in 24 unless he redoes his contract. Really doubt it

His value is the highest right now while he is healthy. Bahk has to be worth at least a first right now. And there would be a ton of interest too. The problem, just like it is with all of GBs top 7 or 8 players, is the messed up backloaded contracts. It might not be feasible with Bahk this year. Didn't we just extend him?

It would be great if we could move on from AR(for sure), Bahktiari, Devondre Campbell, Preston Smith, even AJ, but the dead cap hits are huge. Someone said during the year would be the best time for a trade to a playoff contender. Didn't the Bengals lose both starting tackles before the playoffs? It will happen this year too.

Ko40489,

I agree that Baktiairi is one of the best. If you watch All 22/Coach's Film and run back the games you see Baktiairi as an immovable wall while other Packer Olineman are either getting manhandled (watch Josh Myers in the red zone against Lions Isiah Buggs) or not completing their chips at the first level or blocks at the 2nd level.

Such trade of Dave to the Jets would be interesting, but it will never happen.

It will never happen because David Bakhtiairi will never agree to a trade to the Jets because the Jets play half their games on artificial turf.

Bakhtiairi will retire if traded to the Jets and Bakhtiari will make that known before any trade would happen.

Naturally, Bakhtiairi and the Packer players and other NFL players who have been most vocal in speaking out against the 31 Billionaire Parasite Owners putting their profit maximizing use of artificial turf over the health of the players are naturally the MOST DEMONIZED and/or BLACKBALLED of the Packer and NFL players.

And really none of the players should agree to cripple themselves for life just to enrich these Parasite Billionaire Owners and the athletically talented computer key tapping, pencil pushing, stuffed suit, otherwise empty life management parasites that lives off these players blood and sweat put out for our entertainment. And the athletically talentless wanna be arm chair GMs – with their empty lives - that post to these websites whining about the “spoiled” athletes are of the same ilk – church ladies living though gossip and drinking down Packer management propaganda.

The Jets and Giants both play in the same stadium and on the same artificial turf.
So many Giants and Jets have had season and/or career ending NON CONTACT LOWER LEG injuries on the Jets/Giants artificial turf over the years.

This year the Jets will be playing 10 games in that stadium:

“The New York Jets have nine home games in 2023 – they’ll actually be playing 10 regular-season games at MetLife Stadium for the first time ever because they’re set to play ‘at’ the Giants in the fall.”

For that reason Bakhtiari – who has had an a terrible time with ACL and knee injuries - will retire before he would play for the Jets and I am sure Bakhtiari and Rodgers have spoken about it.

Packers of course lost both Eric Stokes and Rashan Gary to lower leg injuries on Detroit’s artificial turf last year and De’Vondre Campbell to lower leg injury on Buffalo’s artificial turf.
David Bakhtiari Rips NFL Over Safety Issue

The Packer lost star pass rusher, Rashan Gary, to a torn ACL this past Sunday at Ford Field, and Left Tackle David Bakhtiari believes he knows the Culprit. Turf Fields.

Bakhtiari became the latest NFL player to come out and blast the league’s inability to protect player safety by allowing certain organizations to continue to use a certain type of turf field.

He cited the disparity between turf fields and grass fields and spoke about how there will likely be “10 more players (who) will go down this season with completely avoidable non-contact injuries.”

He also spoke about how these same teams will cater to European Soccer teams and change their turf fields to grass fields for them but still refuse to have grass fields for their own players, ignoring the very real issues about player safety. Kicker Mason Crosby also said something similar.

In addition to Crosby and Bakhtiari, 3 more Packers on the artificial turf issue:

Packers Defender Rips NFL After Teammate Rashan Gary Tears ACL
After Packers outside linebacker Rashan Gary suffered a torn ACL during Sunday’s 15-9 loss to the Lions in Detroit, teammate De’Vondre Campbell called out the NFL for using artificial turf fields.
Gary was injured when he switched his running direction in the third quarter on the Ford Field turf.

“This is two weeks in a row we’ve had players get injured on turf fields,” Campbell tweeted on Monday: “I think it’s time y’all take some of the money y’all make off us and invest in grass fields for every team around the league. The turf is literally like concrete it has no give when you plant.”

Only Natural Grass Can Level The NFL's Playing Field By JC Tretter - Packer Offensive Lineman from 2013 thru 2017, Browns 2018 to 2022 & Past and Current NFL Players Association President:

As a rookie learning the ins and outs of being a professional football player, I remember the collective groan that my older teammates made whenever it was announced that we’d be practicing indoors on artificial turf instead of the usual outdoor grass field. I played almost exclusively on synthetic turf in college. Once I started experiencing both surfaces interchangeably, I began to understand exactly why my teammates disliked the practices on turf. Whenever I practiced on an artificial field surface, my joints felt noticeably stiffer the next day. The unforgiving nature of artificial turf compounds the grind on the body we already bear from playing a contact sport.

Aaron Rodgers: 'Time to go all grass' fields for NFL player safety:

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers thinks it's time for the NFL to mandate that all games be played on natural grass surfaces, but he doesn't have high hopes that it will happen.

"No, honestly, I don't have a lot of confidence when it comes to the league making that decision without some sort of big vote and gripes from certain owners who don't want to spend the money," Rodgers said Tuesday.

"[Expanding to 17 games] was about monetary gains, so this would be putting your money where your mouth is if player safety is important."

Rodgers' comments Tuesday followed a concerted effort by the NFL Players Association over the weekend to bring attention to a disparity between injury occurrences on grass and a certain type of artificial surface called "slit-film turf."

"I do think it's time to go all grass throughout the league," Rodgers said. "I think you would see less of these noncontact injuries that we see on some of the surfaces, and I think that it'd be a good step in the right direction towards player safety to make the requirement for every field to be grass."

MetLife Stadium’s playing surface is infamous in the NFL. Many coaches and players say it is unsafe. And they do have a litany of anecdotes they say back up their claims — Giants wideout Sterling Shepard’s non-contact ACL tear being the most recent one.

The NFLPA believes it now has hard evidence as well. From Pro Football Talk:
NFLPA president JC Tretter posted a column with a series of action items, including a plea to remove all “slit-film” turf fields.

Many had never before heard that term. Seven of the league’s 32 teams (the Giants, Jets, Lions, Vikings, Saints, Colts, and Bengals) use slit-film turf. Slit-film also is used at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

“The injuries on slit film are completely avoidable — both the NFL and NFLPA experts agree on the data — and yet the NFL will not protect players from a subpar surface,” Tretter wrote.
(…)

PFT has obtained a slide prepared recently by Biocore, an outside firm that provides engineering analysis for both the league and the union.

In the slide, Biocore explains that “slit-film has a statistically significant higher risk of LEX [lower extremity] injury than the League average,” explaining that independent analyses from Biocore and IQVIA agree on that point. The slide also says that “models suggest there are 2-3 more non-contact lower extremity injuries per season per stadium on slit film surfaces than other types of synthetic turf fields.”

Slit-film turf is designed for durability. So it makes sense MetLife Stadium would opt for it given it hosts double the games each season. But if there is hard data indicating it is not as safe as other forms of turf, why not do something about it? They do not need to gut the entire stadium (although that would be nice). They just need to spend a few million bucks and swap out the fake grass. Just do it.

I wouldn't be surprised if Rodgers was petitioning the Jets to trade for Bahk also.

I'm with you. As I'm fond of saying Trenches, trenches trenches but only the 15 if it's a top flight OT That is tempting. But TE DL and Edge are much larger needs. If we trade Bak and add even more picks this could be a very interesting draft this year. If we don't screw it up we could fill some big holes.

Yes, God please let us trade back. We can arguably get near the same talent level later in the first or 2nd round of what we need most, TÈ and Edge. For less money and we gain more picks. Hmmm, makes sense.

We need more quality offensive linemen on this team unless y'all are comfortable with Newman and Hanson on field, because that's what'll happen when guys start getting injured. I like Freeland, I like Bergeron.

At 15, I think we're looking at a small, finite group of guys. Some of them are OTs, but if I could get the best WR in the draft that's where I'd go.

I'm not a fan of taking OL early in the draft, and if you look at Joe Thomas, you'll see why. This guy was an awesome OT for the Browns for a decade, never missing a game and having a HOF career. But what did the Browns accomplish during that time? The Browns could have traded down and got both Marshawn Lynch and Darrel Revis and still ended up with a tackle like Joe Staley, who isn't as good as Thomas but is still pretty good.

QBs can have a big impact as rookies, like Peyton Manning. RBs can have a big impact, like Earl Campbell. WRs can have a big impact. But offensive linemen....not so much. So it would have to be a real beast of an OL before I'd consider that at 15.

If we can get pick 43 in Rodgers trade their is a path to get d Wright d Washington and a top edge in second might have to give up out pick 78 to trade back down for te

Well expressed.

I agree, but teams also can't continue to ignore their biggest needs forever either. Look at how many years we needed a dominant ILB and how it changed the defense when we finally got some. We don't even have a TE room at this time. 2 on the practice squad who have about 5 snaps between them, and the Bust=Deguara. We at least have a D-line group and a strong O-line group.

Lare,
Been a 'long time' since you have posted! Hope all is well!

Reggie McKenzie's scouting.

Jalen Carter: but you only listed 13 prospects as gone, so he probably is a top 14 pick, anyway.

Murphy. He projects to be a solid edge player.

Maybe Bressee or Van Ness. If they know something about Bakh not known to the public or are peddling Nijman, perhaps Darnell Wright. I don't think anyone else is worth pick 15.

That’s the knock on Washington. No burst or wiggle. Then you look at his testing. While his vertical was so so, his broad and three cone were elite. There’s no doubt he’s got quick feet and explosion in terms of physical capability. Testing is not everything but it is a sure indicator of that.

So, is it that he can’t translate that to the football field or that he wasn’t asked to? In his case it could easily be either. That’s why he’s a high ceiling and medium floor pick. Roll the dice.

Personally, I would not complain if we trade back into the later 20s and take him. It’s a gamble, but his blocking helps and I think, even if he is a guy who needs to build up speed, a good coach can get something from that. He has good hands, so the red zone element is a possible plus too.

Knock, thank you for making a clear, concise, post full of useful information and analysis and doing it in less than 10,000 words.

I am in general agreement with just about everything you said. I do think Bijan Robinson will be gone, but the guys you point to as possibilities at #15 are a real good short list. I actually think/hope there'll be one of the four QBs...Levis, probably....available at #15 so that somebody will trade for that pick.

I agree about Darnell Washington, and that's hard for me to say because I was high on him for a while, but I have now come to the conclusion that if we want a TE who'll get 7 or 8 targets in the passing game, we'd be better off with a guy like Kincaid, and if we want a blocker, we could get a guy like Schoonmaker later.

I also think this draft should be about loading up the offense, and winning with an offense that scores points and keeps the defense off the field. So I'm willing to forgo 20 years of Packers history and take an offensive player at #15, even if a guy like Branch is still there on defense.

I think we have a chance to get the best WR in the draft. When was the last time we had that chance? When we took Sharpe? Lofton? Mandarich? Hawk? We're usually picking at the end of the round and don't get a shot at these guys.

This is the/Love offense, and we should strengthen the 20 guys that we put in the offensive huddle with him.

Sorry- but this is Gutey's draft -
15. Brian Branch. S
45. Cody Mauch. OT
76. Tucker Kraft TE
116. Mike Morris ER
149. Eric Gray. Rb
Not pretty = Best Bust scenario

1) If Love is capable of doing Rodgers like things, he very well may be worth a king's ransom, but nobody will pay a king's ransom for -unproven- talent.

2) If Love is capable of doing Rodgers-like things, you'd be an idiot to trade him. Picks are gambles. If you know you have a great, young, talent, you keep it and build around it.

3) you seem to miss the point. Rodgers won't be in the league in 4 years. Love has the potential to be winning games for 10-13 years.

Please just stop. Rodgers is, for all intents and purposes, no longer a Packer. On to the future, which may or may not be Jordan Love, but is 100% most definitely NOT Aaron Rodgers.

Washington, Mayer, and Kraft are plug and play 10 year starters immediately. Mayer will be round one, maybe Washington too, but more likely 2nd. Kraft later 2nd or early 3rd. They all also could be gone by #45. All block great and catch everything. Considering we have nothing that even resembles a TE position group, I would classify any of the 3 to be gamechangers for the Packers next year. If we could find a trade back partner, the best of the TE group falls right in our lap.We get our best choice WR and Safety too if we trade back and get an extra 2nd and 4th.

Unless the Packers can designate Bakhtiari a post 1 June trade, (which I don't think is possible? IDK for sure.) We can't trade Bakh to the Jets for the 13th pick. No way Bakh is going anywhere before 1 June.

Washington -- If your premise is true -- Very High Floor -- Unlimited potential to be a generational TE talent, you don't even hesitate to draft him at 15. Getting cute and trading back to 21 with the Chargers for another pick will ensure the Seahawks will draft him at 20th overall. If in fact Washington is Gutey's target this year, he'll take him at 15, no matter what.

The main reason I think Washington may be the target at 15th overall, is because of Big Dog. I think having Big Dog on the roster the last few years has spoiled MaLF in the run game and even though they really didn't utilize him as a receiving threat, doesn't mean they couldn't.

Washington is married with two little girls. Everything I've heard coming out of his mouth has been exactly what you want to hear from your TE #1. We haven't had a TE to speak of in decades, and if Gutey were to draft him, I believe Jordan Love could grow with Washington and their connection could be very special in the coming years.

If Washington is the target, I won't complain. As long as we don't draft JSN in the 1st, I think I will be happy. ; P

Conversely, if we drafted his replacement this year, we could trade Bakhtiari before the deadline to a team that has lost their starter and is desperate.

I keep coming back to Math: We need 5 offensive linemen on the field, and we dress 9. Right now, we have SIX proven, capable, veteran starters, so it's like we have a spare tire. But flats happen.

So let's look at who our #7, #8, and #9 offensive linemen are right now. It's not reassuring, IMO.

Newman. As a rookie, he started games and played well enough for us to win 13 games. Then Hanson, who has played in some games.....not well. Then we've got the three guys from last year.....Rhyan, Walker, and Jones....who have NEVER played a snap. Walker was a 7th rounder; Jones a UDFA.....and yet, these are the guys who are going to be STARTING for us as soon as injuries happen.

As regards Washington....I've taken him off my list. If we want a TE who'll be a core feature of our passing attack, other guys are better. If we want a blocker, we can get a guy later.

I agree Lambeau, this draft does have what we need, where we are picking, at all of our position of need except maybe safety. But that could possibly fall right for us to, as the safeties that fit what we need should be still on the board where we pick in the 3rd. depending on if we slide WR ahead of Safety.

We need more picks early, but definitely no to a trade up. That would wreck the draft for us. We absolutely cannot give away our 2nd or 3rd round picks for anyone in this draft. We need to much.

A wild card for a great draft is a trade back that get us another extra 2nd and a 4th or 5th. That 2nd would be huge for the WR we need. And the other falls where a DT like Brodric Martin would be, or EDGE YaYA Diaby could be waiting.

Another wild card, the AR trade, doesn't seem to be happening fast enough, The picks would be great for this draft, but potentially the players if we get some back are huge too. Mims and Ruckert are immediate depth where we really need it, WR & TE. They both could be steals and so far haven't got near their potential. Probably because the Jets QBs have been so bad. Lets take advantage of them.

Mims=Quenton Johnston only faster and catches better.
Ruckert was one of the best high school TEs in the country his senior year, but Ohio State never threw to him. They love throwing to WRs but totally ignore theirTEs. They wasted his talent.

Maybe it's time to talk seriously to the 49ers. If nothing else, having some competition for Rodgers might give them a sense of urgency.

Exactly why we don't need to draft one in the first 3 rounds. Fill the biggest needs with the first 3 picks. Maybe the first 5 if we can trade back and end up with 5 in the first 3 rounds.

The Niners might help us 2 ways, possibly in a trade for Rodgers, and I have read where they might trade up in the third round and have to give up 2 of their 3 third round picks.