Do Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon Hurt Each Other’s Production?
Exploring whether the notion that Jones and Dillon counteract each other has any validity.
By markoldacres
There is a sentiment floating about the Packers sphere that while Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon are both talented running backs, the presence of one is harmful to the other.
The case made is that neither back can get into a rhythm because they are rotated too regularly, but is this actually true?
Looking at basic rushing numbers for Jones and Dillon since 2021 -- when Jamaal Williams left for Detroit and allowed Dillon to take on a bigger role – this can be quite easily checked.
Let’s say an even distribution means each back getting between 40 and 60 percent of the carries in a game. For reference, NFL running backs averaged 4.4 yards per carry in 2022.
In the games Jones received an ‘even distribution’ of carries since 2021, his yards per attempt (YPA) was 4.52, below his overall yards per rush from the last two seasons of 4.86. So, the Packers need to give Jones the ball more, right?
Maybe? His yards per carry when getting more than 60 percent of the reps did rise, but not by a massive amount, to 4.77. Interestingly though, Jones has been most efficient when given less than 40 percent of carries, with his average then shooting up to 5.6.
Dillon’s best YPA came in games where he received an even distribution of carries, rather than a large majority.
His YPA was 4.52 when getting between 40 and 60 percent of reps, dropping to 4.23 when he carried the ball more than 60 percent of the time, and way down to 3.7 when only getting less than 40 percent of carries.
So, what does all this tell us?
Dillon does need a certain number of reps to get going, but truly dominating the carries doesn’t help him. Jones is better when he’s ‘the guy’ than when the splits are relatively even, but it’s not a stark difference, and he’s actually been more efficient when used less.
If an argument is going to be made around who should get more carries, it could be based on the evidence that Jones is simply a better runner and should lead the backfield for that reason, rather than anything to do with rhythm.
But on the other hand, the numbers suggest Jones taking more than 60 percent of the snaps and Dillon less than 40 is the least productive combination, with the backfield as a whole averaging 4.24 YPA in that scenario.
That’s compared to 4.54 for the duo when carries are split evenly and 4.92 when Dillon gets the lion’s share.
Discussions can be had around what the exact splits should be, but to answer the question posed in the title of this article…
No, having Jones and Dillon’s doesn’t seem to be counter-productive and the sharing of carries doesn’t seriously hinder the Packers rushing attack.
Moreover, the approach Green Bay has taken means Jones isn’t a shell of his former self at age 28 -- his YPA was higher in 2022 than 2021 -- unlike many other running backs who shone in their early NFL career before a rapid decline.
Todd Gurley is 28. Leonard Fournette is 28. Ezekiel Elliott is 27. All were first round picks and none of them are currently on an NFL roster.
The Packers may need to run the ball more in general than they did a season ago, but the idea that there’s a problem with how snaps are divvied up between Jones and Dillon is something of a myth.
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Mark Oldacres is a sports writer from Birmingham, England and a Green Bay Packers fan. You can follow him on twitter at @MarkOldacres
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Comments (41)
Melch
June 25, 2023 at 06:15 am
Dumb question
Savage57
June 25, 2023 at 06:53 am
You could be more generous. It's the Dead Zone, and in its vacuum, discussions of minutiae are all that's available.
TKWorldWide
June 25, 2023 at 11:26 am
Hardly a Mensa level comment on your part as well.
Leatherhead
June 25, 2023 at 07:03 am
There is only one ball.
stockholder
June 25, 2023 at 07:27 am
Dillon @28 is a Bust- He's done
absolutely nothing since Covid.
I expected-
Derrick Henry
Nick Chubb
Even a Alvin Kamara.
I mean just show me something.
John Brockington? McCarthur Lane?
Dillon runs like a FB.
And FBs are No longer a Must have Item.
Sorry; but if this team depends on Dillon.
It will only come up short of any expectations.
As far as generational talents go.
Dillon isn't. Forget packer history here.
Leatherhead
June 25, 2023 at 07:47 am
So Stupid.
Dillon never misses games or practices.
Doesn't fumble.
Assignment sure.
stockholder
June 25, 2023 at 09:39 am
It's time you be logical.
It's not stupid when the Vikings
and Lions have better QBs.
Their WRS are set. Their OL is Set.
They have the best #1 WR in the League.
And their Running attacks were top rated.
Dillion won't be comeback player of the year.
He's a bust for the Packers.
He was suppose to pick up the Tough yards.
The short one. He hasn't been money there.
I have seen No reason to think otherwise.
TKWorldWide
June 25, 2023 at 11:32 am
It must Suck to live under never ending gray Clouds.
And rain.
Got no problem. With objectivity.
But you Sir are a One trick Pony.
Your one trick is Always Negative.
Have a Beer.
Lighten. Up.
HarryHodag
June 25, 2023 at 08:50 am
Just wait until Dillon hits free agency. I think you will find not only the Packers but several other teams interested in your 'bust'.
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe"-Albert Einstein
stockholder
June 25, 2023 at 09:23 am
Just wait until Dillon hits free agency -
IMO That is exactly what Dillon needs to do.
THE "Holding back" will be answered.
HawkPacker
June 25, 2023 at 09:27 am
You always write 'Dillion'. Do you mean Dillon?
HawkPacker
June 25, 2023 at 10:02 pm
You gotta love the edit.
ImaPayne
June 25, 2023 at 10:11 am
I'm with you there. Ill take fast agile out of the hackfiel threats every day over a dillon type. Kamaras pose problems for defenses dillons, they know what he will do.
I thought Taylor giving more reps would have complemented Jones style better but again, you gotta play the GM,s guy on this team
jannesbjornson
June 25, 2023 at 10:32 am
Gutedkunst and his 2020 Draft is now in full view. His guys either show up, or the reset begins in the personnel dept. I would expect competition in Summer Session from Taylor and Nichols. All cards should be on the table. Play no favorites.
LeotisHarris
June 25, 2023 at 04:03 pm
I've said this before, jb, but I'm on to you. Your language-rich post just activated a sleeper cell, or called in a drone strike. I'll make that determination asap. Continue to hide in plain sight at your own risk, comrade.
T7Steve
June 26, 2023 at 10:03 am
" activated a sleeper cell, or called in a drone strike".
This is what makes it worth catching up on Monday mornings.
I never usually comment, 'cause no one looks back this far very often.
Thanks for the laugh!
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
June 25, 2023 at 07:49 pm
Dillon is only a year removed from being PFF's #2 overall graded running back and hes only 25 years old. Your comment is a bust.
Melch
July 12, 2023 at 06:11 am
Your way off
WD
June 25, 2023 at 07:37 am
Sounds like they compliment each other. The combined ave carry is nearly 5 yards per carry. That rank nears Jimmy Brown's average. Arguably the greatest runner of all time. With Love at QB we will likely see more play action passes. The other important variable will be the offensive line. They will determine how we do in the red zone. One critical need is to improve the short yardage situation. Hopefully Love will bring back the Quarterback sneak as an option. We are blessed to have two great running backs.
TxFred
June 25, 2023 at 07:46 am
MLF needs a balanced attack. The fucking "chuck 'n duck" entertainment crap the elite marketing guru's are pushing isn't going to make it. AJ & AJ compliment each other. A two back offense with the speed demons on the outside will keep defense off balance & away from JL. Will be nice to see the plays MLF calls are actually run for a change. I think he'll like that too.
cdoemel
June 26, 2023 at 09:58 pm
Why in the world would anybody give this comment a thumbs down? Just grumpy tonight?
PhantomII
June 25, 2023 at 09:59 am
Jones is a weapon....You need to get him the ball in the run and pass game often. Watson is a weapon in the run or pass game. Dillon is suppose to be a sledge hammer but he has not been. We will not be in the shotgun handing the ball off often, so that is a plus. Dillon is in a contract year. We should get his best this season and we have a QB1 who will have backfield movement and not be changing plays and running the clock down. We will be seeing more of what ML wanted his offense to be and even some JL run keeper plays. Big changes this year all over the offense. We will have to wait and see how all of it plays out....but I'm ready for it. GPG
SicSemperTyrannis
June 25, 2023 at 05:56 pm
If you get Quadzilla near his top speed before handing him the ball and he keeps accelerating before contact he's a YAC machine. We don't even need him to get a lot of yards as long as he converts third downs.
cdoemel
June 26, 2023 at 10:01 pm
Mhm. It’s totally but how you use a guy. Ask Rich Bisaccia about that. He seems to get the best out of guys. Not so sure about Joe Barry along those lines.
TarynsEyes
June 25, 2023 at 10:16 am
I hate averages. They're nothing more than cover-ups for failed situation production.
Leatherhead
June 25, 2023 at 03:34 pm
Well, if you play the averages, you win games. Otherwise managers wouldn't switch lefties for righties.
TarynsEyes
June 25, 2023 at 03:52 pm
That's not the same use of averages. That scenario is about getting a production/direct matchup, not running for once for 45 yards and then 3 for 6 and getting an 11 yard per carry average. The pitching change doesn't cover up failure, yards gained does. It's rather simple to differentiate.
SicSemperTyrannis
June 25, 2023 at 06:09 pm
Third down conversion rate is useful for situational football analysis. I think that's the key for using Quadzilla correctly.
Thegreatreynoldo
June 26, 2023 at 02:48 am
I thought the numbers in and of themselves were interesting. I get your concern about averages, but one uses the available stats.
That said, I checked the weighted averages. For example, < 40% meant 5.6 yards per carry, but weighted 2.24. Dillon > 60% meant 4.23, or weighted at 2.538. Since the Packers had one running back on the field per play on average, 2.24 yards plus 2.538 led to 4.778 yards per carry on a weighted basis rather than the 4.92 (rounded up) Mark came up with. 4.78 yards per carry is a very healthy number, so doing it this way didn't take away from Mark's point.
I do think using yards from scrimmage to incorporate the passing attack element might have been useful. Dillon was at 7.4 yards/rec but a very low 4.8 yds/attempt. Jones was 6.7yds/rec and 5.5 yds/att, which is nothing to write home about. Indeed, Jamaal Williams also had below average receiving numbers. 2 of ty Montgomery's 5 years had good yds/att but the other 3 were not so good, though not terrible. 2 of Eddie Lacey's 4 seasons as a receiver were good. James Starks had some dreadful years, with only 2 of his 7 seasons being acceptable. Ryan Grant had a great year in 2011 along with every other GB receiver, but otherwise was bad. This could be an AR thing. He never was good with his swing passes.
And then there is context. Does Dillon get the ball more on 3rd and ones than Jones? Probably so, even though I, too, think Jones is just as good or better at getting that yard. Heck, I'd give it to Jamaal Williams on 3rd and one over Dillon or Jones. There is a guy who always knew where the first down marker was. They did generally get whole series rather than subbing by down and distance, which smooths down the context issues. Doesn't mean AR didn't do things differently depending on who the RB was.
cdoemel
June 26, 2023 at 10:03 pm
Oh fuck botha ya’ll
1966-Guy
June 25, 2023 at 10:31 am
If Barry Smith and Eric Torkelson can team up, so can these guys.
1966-Guy
June 25, 2023 at 10:37 am
Sorry…it’s Barty Smith….freaking automatic word correction!!!!
JohnnyLogan
June 25, 2023 at 11:20 am
Jones can find the hole in the line or take it wide and is a breakaway threat. Dillion is a head-down shove it down their throat type who doesn't actually push the line much. In fact, I trust Jones more at the goal line because he doesn't just run up the center's ass, he can power it in if he has to or find another lane. Dillon is a decent 2nd back but not a lead back the way Jones is. I think we pay the price by not using Jones the way other great backs like Ekelar, McCafferty, and Kamara are used. Jones is every bit their equal and when he's off the field we aren't as good an offense.
Leatherhead
June 25, 2023 at 03:29 pm
I think Jones has won as many playoff games as Ekelar, McCafferty, and Kamara together. By himself, Jones doesn't get used as much, but when you add him to Dillon (or Williams, before that), it's quite a bit of production out of that position.
Dillon isn't a lead back ...IN THIS OFFENSE. If you wanted a guy you could plug into the line 25 times he'd be fine. He stays healthy, doesn't miss games or practice, he's on his rookie contract, and between his rushing and receiving, he averages about 5.0 yards every time wel call his number.
Personally, I'd be inclined to use Dillon at the beginning of the drives and Jones after I got in the redzone, because he seems to have a real nose for the end zone, and that's worth a lot.
SicSemperTyrannis
June 25, 2023 at 06:30 pm
JL, you're describing our O line. For a running style like Quadzilla's to be consistently effective, you need blocking that's consistently effective. #33 is capable of being elusive without that, but he's brought down more easily.
I'd love to see the roster start with 4 RBs and see how Patrick and Goodson do in the roles of #28 & 33. Only then can the FO really know how important it is to keep them next year. As the season progresses they can move the extras down to PS and call up WRs instead.
Heyward
June 25, 2023 at 11:22 am
I've never heard that sentiment. It must be hard coming up with things to write about in June.
The_Baloney_Stops_Here
June 25, 2023 at 07:43 pm
They probably do limit each other's production but they also help keep each other fresh. Not running Jones into the ground has helped him to reach his age 29 season without any noticable loss in speed or explosiveness despite multiple knee injuries. I find that remarkable.
Tundraboy
June 25, 2023 at 09:21 pm
Interesting question but it just reminds me why this is the toughest stretch of the year. The anticipation and waiting is killing me. Can we fast forward to padded practice and some game action already!
10ve 💚
June 25, 2023 at 11:22 pm
OK, I checked the dictionary again.
Statistics is still spelt L . I . E . S .
Go Pack Go!
Bure9620
June 26, 2023 at 04:39 am
I understand what this article is trying to uncover but this is a situation where advanced analytics don't really tell the whole story. AJ Dillion a back that needs carries and gets better as the game rolls on and he gets into a rhythm. He punished defenders. Guys fail to bring him down and he breaks more tackles. Having 2 or 3 carries and then leaving the field does not help him, so in a sense, Jones Hurts Dillon a bit. Dillon was born in the wrong era. He is still averaging about 5 yards per tote in his career. I would like to see Jones more involved in the pass game more and Dillon with more carries.
PatrickGB
June 26, 2023 at 09:23 am
The trouble with “averaging” yards gained is the relatively small sample size. It assumes the player and the defense is the same. It does not take into account injuries and and plays called. However, it can be useful if it’s only used when the above is taken into account. For example, a run play called against a certain defense from a certain formation by a healthy RB at a certain point in a game.