Davante Adams Brilliance Could Force the Packers to Extend Him Sooner Rather Than Later
Should the Packers extend Davante Adams if he has another record-breaking season in 2019?
Davante Adams has had a brilliant three year run for the Packers and only continues to get better. Over that time, he has emerged as Aaron Rodgers's favorite target and the two have developed quite a chemistry.
Three seasons ago, Adams put the league on notice that he would soon become a star in this league. Last year, his time came as he had a career year catching 111 passes for 1,386 yards and 13 touchdowns.
2019 has been a year of new beginnings for the franchise. New life has been injected into this team with a new philosophy brought in by first-year head coach Matt LaFleur. Rodgers looks to be having fun on the football field again and is finally healthy.
Rodgers did not make it a secret last year that he wanted to target Davante Adams as much as possible, and as a result, Davante had a career year. With Green Bay still looking to find out who will emerge as their true number two receiver, look for more of the same results for Davante Adams in 2019.
I am predicting that Adams catches 115 passes for 1,400 yards and 15 touchdowns and establishes himself as a top 3 receiver in the NFL.
If Adams does, in fact, live up to these lofty expectations in 2019, which I believe he will, there is no way that the Packers can continue to keep him under his current 4- year $58 million extension.
With the cap space the Packers currently have, and the money scheduled to come off the books, along with potential money that could be freed up, the team must be proactive and treat Davante like the all-pro receiver that he is and not even force him to have to ask for a new contract.
With a season of 115 receptions and 15 touchdowns, Adams would have clearly outperformed his salary for the first two years of his extension with a combined 226 receptions and 28 touchdowns. These statistics would be comparable with the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, and Julio Jones who have all received massive contract extensions.
I am not suggesting the Packers give Davante quite the amount of money those franchises gave their star receivers but I think a proactive approach, sizable raise and an equitable amount of guaranteed money would be warranted.
Contract Extension Proposal: 5 years $90 million ($60 million guaranteed, $30 million signing bonus, years 1-4 base salaries guaranteed)
This contract could be structured in a way that incurs reasonably increased cap allocations in years 3, 4, and 5, and keeps the cap hit relatively the same during the first 2 years of the contract. This would allow the Packers to continue to execute their offseason plans in 2020 and 2021 with reasonable salary cap flexibility.
If Davante Adams continues to perform like one of the leagues best receivers, he should be paid as such and be paid in a timely fashion so his contract does not become a distraction to the team.
-------------------
David Michalski is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @kilbas27dave
Comments (30)
MarkinMadison
August 03, 2019 at 11:17 am
Not saying he is not deserving, but Bakh, Clark and Linsley are all hitting FA in 2021, and Martinez is hitting FA in 2020. Clark needs to get signed sooner than later. It looks like the Packers drafted Linsley's replacement, but there are no strong answers at T for when Bulaga goes down this year, and so it is hard to assume the LT of the future is on the roster right now. Maybe Clark this year. Maybe Davante next year.
NickPerry
August 04, 2019 at 11:09 am
Is Jenkins Lindsey's replacement or Billy Turners once he slides over IF that's what happens? Cole Madison played RT in college and played it well, at least in pass protection since Mike Leach didn't care to run the ball much either. What about Lane Taylor who's signed through 2020.
I would do as you would and others here... Get Bakh, Clark, and hopefully Martinez signed before offering any kind of extension to Adams. The Packers have some pretty damn good players who will be FA in 2020, ones IMO who could be key players for them after this year. Guys like Allison, Martinez, Tony Brown (love that kid) and Landcaster all look like players the Packers either need or would be smart to hang onto in 2020.
Then I haven't even mentioned Jake Kumerow who Rodgers loves and Trevor Davis who looks like he finally found an offense that suits him. Or "Big Bob" Tonyan, Fadol Brown, or Kyle 10.5 sacks Frackrell.
Gute and Ball have their work cut out for them.
dobber
August 05, 2019 at 08:29 am
"Is Jenkins Lindsey's replacement or Billy Turners once he slides over IF that's what happens?"
I'd been saying that with his not seeing reps with the 1s, and his starting to play C with the 2s, that replacing Linsley when his contract runs out isn't out of the realm of possibility.
Then he started taking reps at LG with the 1s...
Bearmeat
August 03, 2019 at 11:25 am
If Adams gets those numbers, that will mean the offense is not diversified enough, just like it wasn't last year. I would far prefer DA to have something like 1200 yards, 8-10TDs and 95 catches, with those other targets going to Allison, MVS, Graham and Jones.
Plus, as the commenters above mentioned, we don't have room to give DA a raise and keep Bakh, Lindsey, Clarke, Martinez etc..
ricky
August 03, 2019 at 01:40 pm
It all depends on how the contracts are structured. Also, there are some players who are going to be coming off the books the next two years (Graham is very likely gone next year, and if Tramon makes the team this year, next year he will retire with dignity). There are ways to make this work. That is why Russ Ball gets paid. Why be concerned? Let the season play out, see what the numbers are for DA, and go from there.
Bearmeat
August 03, 2019 at 03:22 pm
Fair
EricinGB
August 03, 2019 at 11:46 am
So far, looks like Gute and Ball and coach L. know what they are doing...It takes a high performing QB, line and scheme to support receivers getting the ball. And making stops on defense and getting the ball back. Adams seems smart and unselfish. There also seems to be a positive culture change. Given players want to play together, everybody gives a little. The situation should work itself out.
Since'61
August 03, 2019 at 11:52 am
Let's get through the 2019 season first. If Adams does in fact have another big season then I would agree that he has earned a raise and contract extension.
As Bearmeat has correctly pointed out the Packers have other major FAs to consider over the next 2 seasons. Another factor is the state of Aaron Rodgers. What will be the status of ARs health after this season or at the end of Adam's current contract?
As AR comes closer to the end of his career it might make sense for the Packers to trade Adams for a draft pick high enough to draft Rodgers replacement.
As for the FAs Bakh and Clark are must sign. Linsley should be resigned. Martinez can be allowed to test FA or be traded. He is a nice to have but not a must have like Bakh and Clark. Plenty of decisions but the 2019 season is upon us and all the focus should be on winning now. This is not the time for roster or contract distractions. Thanks, Since '61
NickPerry
August 04, 2019 at 11:16 am
Nice comment Since '61...
I agree Bakh and Clark are both must sign players but IMO Martinez isn't far behind. I know, I know, Martinez has his limitations but he's the best ILB the Packers have had here since Desmond Bishop and Nick Barnett before that.
IF Oren Burks pans out then perhaps Martinez is expendable. BUT if Burks doesn't show leaps and bounds of improvement this year Martinez's value goes up further doesn't it?
jannesbjornson
August 04, 2019 at 02:17 pm
That's why a WR will be one of the high picks in the 2020 draft along with OT. You have to keep trying to acquire elite talent.
Qoojo
August 03, 2019 at 11:56 am
I disagree. There is no reason to do it. With the salary cap being what it is, 3rd contracts should be extended to only few exceptional players. The focus is always about extending ascending players on their 2nd contracts and in the middle of their prime. They have Adams under contract until 29(?). Adams will be a declining player during the lifetime of his next multi-year contract. Age sucks and always wins.
In 3 years, you hope one or two of the young WRs are ready to step into the role of #1. NFL life is tough with the salary cap. You have to be ruthless in evaluations.
dobber
August 03, 2019 at 12:39 pm
"In 3 years, you hope one or two of the young WRs are ready to step into the role of #1. NFL life is tough with the salary cap. You have to be ruthless in evaluations."
There's a lot of truth in this. We've been hearing lots of good things about the young WRs, but it's hard to expect that two, if not all 3, of Moore, MVS, and ESB will mature into quality #2--much less #1--WRs. If just ONE of these guys becomes a #2 or #1, they've likely outperformed their draft status.
Bottom line is that Adams' game isn't speed. He's not a burner. When he starts to lose a step, will his other attributes (quickness and strength) be enough to bail him out? Need to be careful how long you push that commitment out. The biggest reason to extend him would be to mitigate his cap hit in the short term and create room for other acquisitions: he jumps from just under $11M this season to $16.6M in 2020 and 2021.
Qoojo
August 03, 2019 at 06:16 pm
Perhaps you are right about the 3 not developing into a #1. The hope is that the QB at the time can rely on 1 or 2 of the younger guys when the time comes to part ways with Adams.
Unfortunately, roster limit and salary cap leave no room for loyalty from players or teams. Players need to get the money while they can to maximize earnings, and teams need to get the value from contracts. Although some players do reward teams with discounts once they made their money or enough.
TarynsEyes
August 03, 2019 at 12:02 pm
I brought this topic up a couple days ago in another article here and got roasted for it. That's OK because I get it...since it came from me it was treated as being
' negative ' in the concept..cart before the horse, not something any FO thinks about etc. and yet, because a writer for CHTV puts in an article and it's.... fine let's discuss it.
Most of the time many here just won't accept I think outside the box and ahead of the curve. I wonder if the writer didn't get the idea from my comment and ensuing diatribe against it.
See you at the next curve.
flackcatcher
August 03, 2019 at 02:04 pm
"Don't come back from dead man's curve"..........
LeotisHarris
August 04, 2019 at 12:51 pm
I have to agree, Taryn. That said, to continue to be the influencer you are at CHTV, you need to up your jargon game. Please don't limit yourself to just being "ahead of the curve." Many don't despise because you "think outside the box". They loathe you because you're a game changer who uses a helicopter view to drill down to the truth. You address the elephant in the room, and move the needle, sister, and you know it!
Keep cascading information, Taryn, because at the end of the day you know it is what it is.
stockholder
August 03, 2019 at 12:07 pm
NO! Flat out NO! Adams is Arron Rodgers WR. He might Hold out, Demand bigger money, What happens if Rodgers goes, etc.. In todays NFL, it's a business. Full of players that boast me first. Players like Daniels leaving. Dreaming big is OK. But we've seen players change. GET HURT!
dobber
August 03, 2019 at 12:40 pm
I seem to remember him being about the only WR catching passes from Brett Hundley.
TarynsEyes
August 03, 2019 at 01:06 pm
Do you also remember Adams being the only one he looked/threw to 75+ % of the time....I think it's called a sole targeting mindset like...I only have eyes for you...I will follow him...You're the one that one want... : )
Coldworld
August 04, 2019 at 07:54 am
I have to agree with that. No knock on Adams, but it was clearly evident Hundley was unable to go through his progressions
4thand1
August 03, 2019 at 01:13 pm
Like '61 said, lets get through this year first. A lot of things change quickly in the NFL these days, players rising/falling. There seems to be a good chance the Packers have a few guys making big strides this year.
JonathanSpader
August 03, 2019 at 02:00 pm
New collective bargaining agreement will change the landscape of the NFL contract market. No reason to discuss extending Adams when we have him under contract already.
dblbogey
August 03, 2019 at 09:41 pm
Way too early.
Thegreatreynoldo
August 03, 2019 at 03:13 pm
I am still leery of Davante's concussion history. Bakh has an even better claim for an extension. Adams is signed through 2021 but Bakh is signed on through 2020.
Some issues about setting a precedent. Adams has three years left. Some problems with contracts in the last year of the CBA. Russ Ball would have to be very creative. It would be difficult to Adams a $30M signing bonus ($6M proration) on top of his $3.6M prorations for 2019 - 2021 due to the Deion Rule. Ditto Bakh, who has $3.2M prorations for 2019 and 2020.
Coldworld
August 04, 2019 at 08:28 am
This might be a discussion for next or the year after. 3 years remaining is way too early to be thinking about this. In addition the team must balance overall cap management. There are some significant decisions and payments that come first. It is also pretty evident that we are in a period where we have a lot of developing players: where that group will be in a year will be very different from now (good, bad or a blend). Too early by far.
jeepingmakooi
August 03, 2019 at 06:30 pm
Least we forget... Russ ball is a cap wizard... If the pack want it done.. Russ will find a way to make it work
GatorJason
August 03, 2019 at 09:24 pm
Packers will need to look at their WR corps as a whole before they pony up big dollars for another D. Adams extension. I think the WR group is well stocked and ascending. None may reach the level of Davante but the drop off may not be significant enough to warrant paying him $20M+/yr even though that may be his free agent market value.
Conversely I see the Packers needing to extend Kenny Clark. He is a young pro-bowl level DL anchor that allows the Packers to keep average caliber starters and still be effective. In other words, he is more irreplaceable for the DL group than Davante Adams is in for the WR group.
Managing the salary cap is a tough business. Sometimes you have to let people go even though they have been outstanding contributors. See Jordy, Daniels, Cobb, Matthews, Sitton, Lang, etc.
DavidMichalski
August 04, 2019 at 10:22 am
So full disclosure, in doing this article I was messing around with the 2020 cap figure on over the cap and I was able to create 17+ million in cap space by cutting Graham, Taylor, and extending both Kenny Clark as well as Davante Adams. The trick was how I structured the signing bonuses as well as the guaranteed money over the first 4 years of the deals. I still was able to give K.C. $87.5 mill guaranteed over 6 years and Davante $66.5 over 5 years which is probably what the market would escalate to next year. In reality you could most likely get a slight bargain on the guaranteed money but it could be a ballpark look if the prices of these contracts continue to rise.
jannesbjornson
August 04, 2019 at 02:24 pm
What about Martinez?
MarkLee22
August 06, 2019 at 07:32 am
I hate to say it because I'm a huge Davante Adam's fan, but if Scantling, Allison, St. Brown, Kumerow and J'Mon Moore all progress like they are supposed to according to Gute, than Davante may be expendable by the end of his extension.