Cory's Corner: Vernon Davis trade is too risky
Ever since Evan Massey opined on Forbes that Vernon Davis would be a great fit in Green Bay, Packers fans have been in a tizzy.
Davis does have Pro Bowl pedigree and is akin to a running anvil when trying to bring him down.
But that’s not why general manager Ted Thompson won’t be bringing Davis to 1265 Lombardi Ave. Davis turns 32 in January and has been peppered with back, hamstring and concussion problems the last three years.
Last year, Davis had the worst season of his career. And this year, thanks to the worst pocket passer in the game, it could be even worse.
And how much does Davis actually want to come to Green Bay? In 2006 the Packers took A.J. Hawk fifth overall leaving Vernon Davis on the board. The Packers had Bubba Franks and Donald Lee on the roster in 2005, but both were middling tight ends at best and Davis would’ve been a huge upgrade. Players remember that kind of stuff and use it as motivation. If you don’t believe me, ask Aaron Rodgers.
Then, there’s the money. Is it really worth it to spend the $6.9 million on a one-year rental that may quiver when the frigid cold of December and January come calling? His last three playoff games have only produced five catches for 54 yards and two touchdowns.
And even if Davis were to come aboard, how much would Aaron Rodgers trust him? He is very particular about route running and if he isn’t on the same page with his pass catchers, you’re not getting the ball. Davis wouldn’t come to Green Bay for a two-week internship to figure things out. The Packers would need him right away but he would need time to figure out the offense and the all-important nonverbal cues from the ‘Maestro.’
I haven’t always been the biggest supporter of Richard Rodgers, but he has shown what he can do when given the chance. With Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and James Jones hurt, he has been able to prove to Aaron Rodgers what he can do in this offense. Is Richard Rodgers the dynamic dual-threat that has put guys like Rob Gronkowski and Tyler Eifert on the map? No, but Davis isn’t either at this point.
And let’s not forget that Thompson loves his draft picks. The 49ers will want a fourth or fifth rounder for Davis and there’s no way that Thompson would want to part with any of his picks.
On the surface the move looks fine. A former Pro Bowl tight end coming to a great offense. However, you’re going to get the same production from Davis as you would with Richard Rodgers.
Let’s face it, this is a Super Bowl team. The toughest game remaining on the schedule is a December trip to Arizona. There are too many variables for Davis to come into a locker room, learn the system and become one of the guys. There’s a greater chance of him coming in and throwing the entire season off the rails. And for as much reward Davis could bring, there’s just too much risk.
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Cory Jennerjohn is a graduate from UW-Oshkosh and has been in sports media for over 15 years. He was a co-host on "Clubhouse Live" and has also done various radio and TV work as well. He has written for newspapers, magazines and websites. He currently is a columnist for CHTV and also does various podcasts. He recently earned his Masters degree from the University of Iowa. He can be found on Twitter: @Coryjennerjohn
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Comments (50)
porupack
October 17, 2015 at 06:45 am
I'm not sure I see the risks this year except dollars on picking up his salary , (potential wasted pick is a 2016 and beyond risk). I guess that is a pro-rated amount of $6.9m.
Everything has risks, so that is a given. Is he much more of a risk than Peppers who certainly tailing off of his peak? Obviously, Peppers had preseason to get acclimated to GB Defense. What is the risk this year, if its SB or bust? RRodgers has useful advantages, but he is just slow out there.
Bring in a veteran who could be an upgrade, and if he isn't picking up assignments, he can sit on the bench until he does and keep playing RRogers. What is the risk in terms of potential utility in the offensive attack? I don't care about the money, naturally....so why not take some chances and add a piece if it can help get that Lombardy hardware?
It won't happen tho.
croatpackfan
October 17, 2015 at 08:32 am
HE is much larger risk than Peppers... He is in obvious decline, History of injuries and so on... Why to risk and bring someone who will jump false start every time on hard count? I'm satisfied with RR. Can RR be better. That is sure, as it is sure that he has huge upgrade to achieve. Vernon Davis? Very good TE, but in decline. Do not forget, we will get Andrew Q back on the field mid season! What would be benefit?
Flow49
October 18, 2015 at 08:09 am
All my buddies who live in Chicago or are huge bears fans were 99.9% sure peppers was done. He's proved that's certainly not the case. I think Vernon may have a similar amount left. Although personally I'd rather not give up picks to find out.
Hematite
October 17, 2015 at 07:06 am
Don't want him, don't need him.
Won't happen.
barutanseijin
October 17, 2015 at 07:10 am
I agree that it won't happen, but the packers need better TE play.
Thegreatreynoldo
October 17, 2015 at 10:48 am
2 dislikes for stating the obvious truth?
jeremyjjbrown
October 17, 2015 at 11:18 am
Some folks around here dislike truth.
barutanseijin
October 17, 2015 at 07:09 am
I don't know how much Davis has left in the tank, but he's much harder to tackle than Richard Rodgers, and can hardly be slower or a worse blocker. What's to lose? The future is now.
At any rate, how do we know what the final price will be? I think the Niners could be bargained down. If so, the cost benefit analysis looks different.
[email protected]
October 17, 2015 at 07:49 am
Now granted it was a long time ago, but I seem to recall Davis stating that he was hoping that the Packers wouldn't draft because he didn't want to play in Green Bay.
LeagueObsrvr
October 17, 2015 at 05:31 pm
Agreed. I was about to make this same point, but you beat me to it. +1
4thand1
October 17, 2015 at 08:29 am
Wow I can't believe how old Davis is. Seems like he just came in the league a few years ago. Is he still fast? How much does he want to play? Lots of injuries. A 4th or 5th round pick? No f-ing way, those are our best picks usually,lol.
TKWorldWide
October 19, 2015 at 04:47 pm
AJ Hawk was the #5 choice overall, Davis was the #6 choice in 2006.
croatpackfan
October 17, 2015 at 08:34 am
Guys, any new player on the offensive side of the ball and you can forget hard count. Hard count will go in favor of opponents. New guy will jump false starts all time!
EddieLee
October 17, 2015 at 08:54 am
In Ted we trust. He certainly won't give up a 4th or 5th round pick. No one else will either. The season is lost for them. They are 1-4 and will be hiring a new coach after the season. Davis is gone after the season. They might as well get a 6th round pick for him now if they can and save the cap $. (Similar to the Allen deal to Carolina)
The entire hard count issue a few brought up is a silly argument. He'll be reminded in huddle or on the line it's a hard count. Watch the ball. He's a vet. It's not that hard.
The real questions: 1. Is he a decent smart guy that fits in the locker room. 2. Can he still play a bunch better then Rodgers/Quarless.
4thand1
October 17, 2015 at 09:11 am
LMAO, I still remember Singletary kicking Davis off of the field during a game for not playing hard.
cpheph1
October 17, 2015 at 11:27 am
LOL, yeah, I remember that too! It was a learning moment for both...Vernon is still playing and IIRC made a few pro-bowls after that incident.
I'm not saying I'm "all-in" for Vernon but if the cost is a 5th or lower, then yeah, I'd throw those chips out there.
Snake Plissken
October 17, 2015 at 09:37 am
Davis would be a salary dump for the 9ers.
The Packers or any team taking on this older, many times hurt player on the downside would not have to pay any more than a 6th or 7th.
This is NOT Tony Gonzalez…. we won't do it unless its a giveaway.
Gianich
October 17, 2015 at 09:55 am
Kenard!!!!
Lphill
October 17, 2015 at 09:59 am
Interesting stat in playoffs 5 catches but 2 touchdowns.
Otto
October 17, 2015 at 10:03 am
First of all, I don't "tizzy".
Second, Davis needs to learn 1 route, the post. Split the safeties on the cover 2 and this O is back on track.
Third, they rented Andre Rison and Keith Jackson in '96. Do I need to elaborate?
Lastly, Davis has never had any qb like Rodgers throwing to him. If he had we'd be talking HOF for him. He could have the best season(s) of his career with AR.
AZPack
October 17, 2015 at 11:41 am
They didn't rent Jackson. Wolf traded for him and wanted him on the field to compliment Chmura and he wanted Jackson to play more than a yr or 2 in GB. But after the Packers won the SB, Jackson decided he didn't want to play football anymore and retired.
Rison was a rental, which is exactly what Jones is this year. I don't see Thompson taking a chance on upsetting team chemistry on an undefeated team by trading for Vernon Davis. Who at times has been known as a malcontent anyway.
Jake Brunet
October 17, 2015 at 10:04 am
Vernon Davis would be a risky pick, Teddy won't do it. Naturally I would go for more of a skillful player with natural ability such as a Bostick
4thand1
October 17, 2015 at 10:54 am
- 1,000,000 for bringing up that name.
Otto
October 17, 2015 at 10:58 am
Did anyone else hear the rimshot when they read this?
sonomaca
October 17, 2015 at 10:18 am
You know Belichick is going to be interested in Davis. It's not just whether he's a fit for the Pack, it's which other team might get him.
4thand1
October 17, 2015 at 10:59 am
If he can still run, he can stretch the field. Get him before the buy , give him a play book and turn him loose. TT won't pay to much for him, I see a 6th maybe a 5th, and that's stretching it.
aj
October 17, 2015 at 11:21 am
TT would give up a 6th at most because of the compensation picks he will get for Tramon and House. He still believes wholeheartedly in draft and develop and having more picks gives him more opportunities to find players.
Thegreatreynoldo
October 17, 2015 at 11:15 am
4th and one and Eddie alluded to this: for those of us who don't watch SF or play Madden regularly, can someone, maybe the author, tell me what Davis can still do?
1. Can Davis run block?
2. Can Davis pass block?
3. Can Davis split the seam?
4. Can Davis split out wide and draw defenses attn?
5. Can Davis still elude defenders?
6. Can Davis still take the pass to the house?
7. Can Davis break a tackle?
8. What's w his relatively low reception/target %?
9. What is his injury history exactly?
10 Is Davis still a jerk?
Until I know what the upside is, I can't venture much of an opinion about Davis. RRodgers has shown signs of being able to do 1, can't do 2-7. Neither can Q.
AZPack
October 17, 2015 at 11:46 am
Too many negatives and not enough positives to make it worth the risk.
Think about it... Thompson would be taking a big risk in upsetting team chemistry, on an UNDEFEATED team, for a player that has at times been a malcontent. Not a chance in hell, Thompson does this IMO!
Thegreatreynoldo
October 17, 2015 at 11:55 am
The point of my post is that since I only watch GB games for the most part, I don't really know what the upside of getting Davis might be. I see the probable cost in terms of cap and draft pick and team chemistry, (edit: and who gets cut to make room for Davis?) but I am not sure what Davis brings to the table at this point in his career.
Probably a moot point since it seems so unlike TT to do something like this in-season.
cpheph1
October 17, 2015 at 11:19 am
Wow, I haven't seen the phrase "In a tizzy" in quite some time...amusing! Maybe some fans are/were, I don't know and would need to take a poll to make an estimate. Regardless, I think there are two "money quotes" (a Naglerism) from Evan Massey's article:
1) "Being traded to the Packers would be exactly what the doctor ordered for the 31-year-old former superstar tight end. Davis would be catching passes from one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game and in a season where more weapons are welcomed due to the Jordy Nelson injury."
2) "He will make just $6.9 million this season and would be a cheap pickup for the Packers if they choose to look into making the move."
To me, the two quotes from Massey's article become facts...certainly #2 is a fact because $6.9m isn't that much money when you consider the amount of cap space the Packers have and the fact that they wouldn't have to cover the full $6.9m anyway; just the remaining (prorated) base salary for 2015. If you believe Aaron Rodgers is one of the best ever QBs, then Davis would be catching passes from him would also become a fact.
Now this is the money question from your article (Cory, btw, my son's name is spelled that way): "And how much does Davis actually want to come to Green Bay?"
I think that's a great question! We'd have to ask Vernon Davis... You also mention the $6.9m but I've pointed out it really isn't that much...maybe half is my guess without checking one of the salcap sites.
"how much would Aaron Rodgers trust him?" We'd have to ask Aaron...or better yet, trade for Davis and watch what happens when he's on the field with ARodg and then make a judgement.
Then you go on to say: "Davis wouldn’t come to Green Bay for a two-week internship to figure things out. The Packers would need him right away but he would need time to figure out the offense and the all-important nonverbal cues from the ‘Maestro.’"
WTF does this "two-week internship" even mean? I'm sure that Vernon and Aaron are professional enough to figure things out. I think Aaron would be intrigued or even hopeful of having Vernon Davis as his TE!
I'm well aware that Davis has not performed well this season so far...and has had some injuries to deal with. Those are the negative facts.
From my perspective, Davis would be a great gamble...a gamble on greatness. Getting ARodg another valid target and threat to opposing defenses is a huge positive potential. He'd be worth a 5-7 round pick to me but obviously Ted is the guy that makes the decision. A healthy Vernon Davis would be a huge threat down the middle...he'd be a huge threat period!...a much better threat than JMike ever was.
Finally the title of your article: "Vernon Davis trade is too risky"
You did not convince me. You finished off with: "There are too many variables for Davis to come into a locker room, learn the system and become one of the guys. There’s a greater chance of him coming in and throwing the entire season off the rails."
Too many variables? So what! Maybe only some come into play. I think Davis "learning the system" would be a piece of cake and they'd spoon feed him if necessary. Learning the system is not an issue in my book...and I'd highly doubt it'd be an issue for the coaches (or ARodg). The locker-room thing is a total unknown but I think they've got enough leadership that it would not be a problem. In fact, I don't recall Vernon Davis ever being a locker-room problem. The dude is a veteran...a professional. I think he'd be a welcomed addition...plus he'd be playing for a ring.
Currently your article has generated 12 replies so you did your job...you roused some (including me).
AZPack
October 17, 2015 at 12:09 pm
A Nice long comment. Almost another article.
Ask yourself this... Why would Thompson take a chance on upsetting team chemistry on an UNDEFEATED team, for a player that has at times been a malcontent anyways? If you remember this is an UNDEFEATED team w/ great team chemistry. But you would be willing to upset that great chemistry. Sorry couldn't disagree more!
4thand1
October 17, 2015 at 01:17 pm
We really don't know Vernon Davis. He hasn't appeared to be any sort of diva or a locker room cancer. With the mass exodus that occurred in SF, you didn't see him asking to be traded or wanting to retire. Not having a QB to be able to make throws from the pocket is gotta be rough.
AZPack
October 17, 2015 at 03:26 pm
I don't know if he is anymore. What I did say is that at times he has been. But I'm not risking that he might be.
cpheph1
October 17, 2015 at 05:46 pm
It's your prerogative to disagree; your rationale for disagreeing with me does not sway me.
Gee, I forgot the Packers are currently UNDEFEATED...thanks for enlightening me.
You have no evidence whether Vernon Davis "would disrupt team chemistry" with the current Packers....just an opinion.
AZPack
October 17, 2015 at 08:19 pm
I didn't say he would. But its known that at times Davis has been a malcontent. Which means it has to weigh in the decision about whether to make the deal or not. And if I'm familiar w/ Thompson and his methods, which I think we all are, there's no way Thompson makes the deal.
Is it worth the risk of upsetting team chemistry on an undefeated team? Not in my opinion, and I would guess base on how much Thompson and McCarthy value team chemistry and a good lockerroom environment, its not worth it to them either.
Its much the same as Marshawn Lynch. I think that was the overriding factor why Thompson didn't make that deal too. And yes it is My Opinion.
But that Davis has at times been a malcontent isn't. That's factual. We don't know if he is yet or would be, but not worth the risk IMO.
NickPerry
October 17, 2015 at 10:16 pm
Personally I share your opinion, the prorated salary wouldn't be $6.9 million and the Packers have what, $17 million in Cap Space? It was a while ago but the man ran a 4.38 with a 42 inch vertical at his combine. I'd bet he could still run a sub 4.50. Several have brought up Team Chemistry as a reason not to trade for hm. I think this team is strong enough, has enough veteran leadership, and no nonsense coaching staff and GM to take on a trade for Vernon Davis. At the end of the day it's about winning a Championship and there's little doubt Davis makes the Packers Better.
Someone brought up Bill B and the Patriots as a team that would make a trade for someone like him. I agree, they'll do anything to win including cheat. With that said they'll also go after anyone who can help their team win a Championship. They've won four, been in 2 others all since 2001. If Vernon Davis could help Green Bay win a SB this year then I'm all for it.
The reality is TT won't do a thing. He won't pay him, won't give up a draft pick, nothing. He's going to do what he's done every year since he's been here. He's going to go with who's on the roster and PS now, wait for Q to come back from injury, and hope Adams and Cobb come back from the bye healthy. I think Ted's a great GM but I sure wish he'd have a little of Belichick in him sometimes.
EdsLaces
October 17, 2015 at 12:01 pm
I really don't like this idea. The only good thing would be how much it would free up Cobb and Co.
PETER MAIZ
October 17, 2015 at 12:04 pm
Cory is right. There are no guaranteed advantages and the Packers should stay risk adverse. But we need Adams back so that Jones can stretch the field. Believe me Phillips is no "fancy pants".
EddieLee
October 17, 2015 at 12:48 pm
I am no cap expert but here is my guesstimate of the cap implications. His base salary is $4.35 million. His roster and workout bonuses were already paid this year. After this weekend, there are ten games. Prorate his base salary and my estimate is the Packers would be on the hook for $2.7 million. His signing bonus proration for 2015 would be around ~$1m. Total cap hit would be about $3.7m. I believe his $550,000 in 2015 workout and roster bonuses and $400,000 in restructure bonus are fully owned by the 49ers since they have already been paid and are not pro-rated.
Who gets cut? Perillo who was just added to the roster.
So, 6th round pick and $3.7m cap hit. (Also, subtract out Perillo's min deal) I don't think either would prevent Ted from adding him IF:
1. He isn't a locker room turd.
2. He can still play substantially better then Quarless/Rodgers.
I'll trust the Packer scouting dept to answer both those questions. Because none of us Packer General Manager semi-experts are equipped to do so!
AZPack
October 17, 2015 at 12:52 pm
If he's traded his entire remaining signing bonus accelerates immediately to the 9ers cap. It doesn't affect the Packers cap. Only his salary per game would show on the Packers. He is in the last year of his contract so the affect on the 9ers cap is minimal and already accounted for.
Do we even know the 9ers are looking to deal Davis? Or is this just someone fantasizing? Not that I care, since I cant see Thompson doing this and possibly upsetting team chemistry.
zeke
October 17, 2015 at 03:45 pm
"Do we even know the 9ers are looking to deal Davis? Or is this just someone fantasizing?"
Exactly. And TT needs to hurry up with this so he can then trade for Joe Thomas. And Julio Jones.
TKWorldWide
October 17, 2015 at 04:54 pm
Which would mean dealing away a 6th and a 7th...very steep indeed.
4thand1
October 17, 2015 at 01:21 pm
After reading everything, I say -uck it! My professional opinion says sign him now.
AZPack
October 17, 2015 at 03:28 pm
He's under contract. You have to trade for him, can't just sign him.
Since'61
October 17, 2015 at 05:48 pm
The Packers re-signed Mitchell Henry to their practice squad earlier this week. Plus Q is eligible to return from IR. All 4 TEs are TTs guys. This tells me that TT is done making TE moves unless something changes drastically. Vernon Davis is no longer the player he was 3-4 years ago. If he's not helping 49ers who are much worse off than we are how much can he help the Packers. Can he still stretch the field? Maybe. While I agree that we need a better tight end I don't think that Vernon Davis is the answer. It's not necessary to mess with a 5-0 team. Thanks, Since '61
4thand1
October 17, 2015 at 07:42 pm
Sure are a lot of dislikes flying around. LMFAO.
aaronqb
October 17, 2015 at 08:56 pm
First a fact check ... Davis' base salary this year is $4.35 million; $6.9 million is the 49er cap hit if he is on their roster for the entire season. If the Packers traded for him now, they would be on the hook for about 2/3 of the base salary or about $3 million.
Right now the Packers have about $10 million in cap room remaining so if they traded for Davis this would drop to about $7 million.
If they decided to trade for him (and he has little trade value), the primary concerns would have to be:
1) Can he still play? He's 31 and has had some recent injury issues.
2) Would he upset the chemistry in the locker room? Hard to say from any of our vantage points.
3) How long would it take him to learn the offense?
I doubt Ted makes this trade. Even at $3 million, it's still expensive and he hasn't been very productive recently.
4thand1
October 17, 2015 at 09:56 pm
Nobody in SF has been very productive recently.
Free agent
October 18, 2015 at 09:46 am
The offense needs a little pick me up..... Davis would put more pressure on the safeties and LB's and give Lacey more room to run. Very little risk, chance for a big Super Bowl reward. Rodgers need another weapon with Jordy out.