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Confessions of a Polluted Mindset: A Packers Brain Drain

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Confessions of a Polluted Mindset: A Packers Brain Drain

Gutekunst: If it hasn't become abundantly clear by now, Brian Gutekunst is no Ted Thompson. Playing it safe to a fault, Ted Thompson would be loath to make a serious offer for Khalil Mack, cut a second year 4th round pick despite his showing little on the field, cut both fullbacks and only have 2RBs on the initial 53-man roster. Gutekunst may be Brett Favre to Ted Thompson's Bart Starr persona. Gutey is not afraid to take chances, risks be damned. This is truly a new era in Green Bay. Enjoy the ride.

Khalil Mack: I've been pretty clear on my opinion of Khalil Mack - no doubt a very good player, but is he a transformational player that will turn the entire team around (a la Reggie White)? No, no he's not. Is he worth paying $140M dollars on a team that just gave the best QB in the league a massive new contract? No, no he isn't.  Is he worth the price of two #1 draft picks? This is where it gets a bit murky. I could likely live with giving up these picks for a known quantity - a player of Mack's caliber. But is a 10-11 sack, 75 tackles player worth the price in picks and money? That's where I have to just say no. 

Reggie: Speaking of Reggie White, I had a "discourse" with a rabid Packers fan on twitter who was jumping up and down and crying about how the Packers failure to get Mack (as if they were the only ones in control of that situation), would result in them continuing to  "idle in mediocrity, as they have for the last 10 years." We had the usual argument about what mediocrity really is and how the Packers have the second most wins of any NFL team during that period. To this fan, not having multiple Super Bowl wins means they have been a mediocre team. I know some of you reading this right now likely feel the same way. I've learned to just shrug this off, as there is really no changing people's minds who believe this. 

But then he came up with a doozie. In retort to one of my points stating how I don't think Mack was worth the price (picks & money), he comes at me with "Was Reggie White worth it?" Ignoring the fact it was a totally inappropriate comparison - The Packers didn't have to give up any assets for White - I think it's safe to just say, "Sir, we knew Reggie White, and Khalil Mack is no Reggie White."

53-man Roster: My number of correct roster picks for the original 53-man roster ended up at 46, my worst year ever, but still one of the top results among fellow bloggers and fans willing to show their picks. My highlights were predicting Vince Biegel would be cut and Robert Tonyan & Herb Waters would make it. My awful picks were Chris Odom making it (I couldn't see only 4 OLB being kept, as they did), and Lance Kendricks getting cut (I thought they would do that to add to their cap space). Also, I was pretty sure I would be on point with my pick of 7WR (Had to find a way to keep Kumerow), I just didn't think of the tactic of putting Kumerow on the roster and then to IR. Well done Gutey!

Pettine's Defense: While most fans are likely looking forward to the return of Aaron Rodgers, this fan is eagerly anticipating the debut of Mike Pettine's defense. He likely didn't show many of his cards in the preseason, so I'm eager to see what he puts on the table. Hopefully, he finds a way for the Packers' pass rush to get "straight" to Trubisky and "flush" him out of the pocket. 

Final Word on Khalil Mack: It seems Raiders' GM Reggie McKenzie was looking for teams that could get him high draft picks. Or in other words, Reggie knows that even with Mack, the Bears will still suck.

 

 

__________________________

"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of many hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He is also a recovering Mason Crosby truther.  

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marpag1's picture

Totally agree on Mack. Very nice player, but the price is the poison pill that kills the deal.

People can say that no first round pick is guaranteed (which is obviously true), and that even two picks don't guarantee that either one will be commensurate with Mack's value (which is also true). But this ignores the economics of the situation. And it also ignores the fact that the Packers don't necessarily need a player who is commensurate with Mack's value. Any solid starter-quality player at OLB would go a long, long ways to shore up the Packers roster, even if he is not a DPOY. And how would TWO solid-but-not-awesome starters stack up against Mack? If the Packers had traded for Mack, they would have no first round picks to "plug holes" at places like OLB or O-line. As it is, they will have two picks. Plus 140 million dollars.

Besides, people are super-quick to point out that there are no guarantees in the draft, but what guarantee is there that Kahlil "Sure Thing" Mack will ever play to a DPOY level in the future? Not many people seem to acknowledge that under-performance from Mack is even possible. That's surprising... given the fact that even today Albert Haynesworth is only 37 years old.

Coldworld's picture

Another question is how long can he remain elite. Will the money change his desire.

FA is always a gamble. This contract makes it a huge one in terms of size and length. To justify it, he has pretty much got to end up in Canton.

croatpackfan's picture

As there is no guarantee that draft pick(s) will be commensurate with Mack's value, there is also no guarantee that Mack's value will be higher than draft pick(s).

Do not forget - once, Mack was also picked in draft. As I do not believe that Mack is even on Jared Allen level, I really think that the price is to high (2019 first-round pick, 2020 first-round pick, 2020 third-round pick, 2019 sixth-round pick & Mack for 2020 second round pick and conditional 2020 fifth-round pick). Add to that monster deal!

GBPDAN1's picture

I'm over the Mack trade. The cost to obtain him was to high. I would like to see BG kick the tires on John Simon as depth at OLB

Coldworld's picture

With that I can definitely agree.

Rak47's picture

Nice article Al. I agree on Mack and as I stated on this site earlier this week the 2 first round picks were not the issue for me. Once Aaron Donald's contract was announced I was hoping Gute would pull out. I also stated before Mack's contract was announced [but after Donald's was] it was gonna take 135-140mil to get him signed and that is waay, waaay, waaaay to much for any one defensive player not named Aaron Donald. With Gute forcing the Bears to sign Kyle Fuller their young CB to a very lucrative deal as well as signing Allen Robinson to another lucrative contract the Bears are setting themselves up to lose quite a few quality starters over the next few years unless Trubisky completely bombs. If he [Trubisky] has any success he will command 15-20 mil on his next contract and they'll need room for players like Leonard Floyd, Roquan Smith, Jordan Howard and Cody Whitehair just to name a few.

Minniman's picture

Great summary Rak47.

That said, I don't think that Chicago have played this completely wrong

They've certainly gambled high stakes, but if all of these players (including Trubisky) excel then they become highly trade-able commodities, so they should be able to shop and ship them to keep Trubisky.

If he tanks, then they have a good nucleus to do a MN and go QB shopping.... they just won't have the cap QB budget that MN had and so will need to package up some of these players to get someone good...... and as the Earl Thomas and Eric Reid predicaments have shown this year, that having 3 potential trades at a premier D position (OLB) is an easier ask than less coveted positions.

Minniman's picture

Edit: Smith is an ILB but potential game-changer none-the-less

Daren726's picture

New era in GB with Gute. Yes, I see it and I’m all for it. I like the “athletic” type players he’s finding. I like the way he’s cutting guys ( Biegel) rather than giving them 2nd and 3rd chances, I like the way he’s getting rid of all the 3rd tier personnel that have been hanging around for several years like a bad science experiment, I like the shrewd picks in the draft, and I like that he is always looking to upgrade. This guy is no bull crap , put up or shut up. This is going to be fun to watch. Within a few years he will have completely rebuilt the team into a force to be reckoned with.

dobber's picture

" I like the way he’s getting rid of all the 3rd tier personnel that have been hanging around for several years like a bad science experiment, "

Every GM has his latent science experiments on the roster. BG will likely be no exception. The only difference is that these experiments are almost all new and unknown. Culling out a whole bunch of players who have 'ceilinged' and replacing them with new players with unknown ceilings does give the Packers the opportunity to hit on a couple that they might not have tried before.

Daren726's picture

Yep, you got it.

Turophile's picture

Views on this have been expressed in 'Cory's Corner'.
To encapsulate what was said there.
Will Mack make the Bears better....
of course.
Would the Packers be better or worse off if it was them that made the trade ?
The answer depends on the timescale. In the short term they would be better off, but as the timescale lengthens, the cost becomes due.....and the cost splits into two.

First is the financial cost - that size of investment means you cannot keep all of the bigger contracts (current and projected), like Bakhtiari, D.Adams, K.Clark, M.Daniels.

Second is the draft pick cost. Losing multiple high picks is a cost that will hurt the Packers going forward. They ALWAYS have a critical need for starter-level players to fill weak spots, and loss of high picks has a powerful impact on that.

The biggest effect of gaining a super-high-profile player is on the fanbase. The Bears fanbase needs that marquee signing far more than the Packers do. So, while the move is probably a good one (certainly in the shorter term) for the Bears, it is not so important for the Packers, especially when you look at the price paid for Mack's services.

dobber's picture

"First is the financial cost....
Second is the draft pick cost...."

I think of it like having to buy a PSL before you can buy tickets. The ticket prices themselves might not seem too terribly bad when you look them up and think about the entertainment you get in return, but having to pony up big sums just to have the opportunity to buy the tickets is often a deal breaker.

HankScorpio's picture

"I think it's safe to just say, "Sir, we knew Reggie White, and Khalil Mack is no Reggie White.""

It is very safe to say that. I'm glad Gute took a good hard look at the deal. Based on what I've seen from him so far, I don't think he is being overly cautious in passing. Somewhere between TT and John Schneider on the aggression scale is right where I want the Pack's GM and Gute is slotting in nicely.

dobber's picture

To my understanding, John Schneider still isn't flying solo in Seattle. Doesn't Carroll still hold some control over roster? People complain about the power structure in GB (which doesn't look like a problem, yet), but those kinds of situations--or Reggie McKenzie flying with co-pilot Chucky in Oakland--are, to me, the real bugaboo.

marpag1's picture

I wouldn't be terribly surprised if we saw Reggie back in Green Bay in the not-so-distant future, or at least somewhere other than Oakland. Everything I read says that McKenzie basically got cut off at the knees as the decision maker in Oakland. That usually doesn't go over very well.

Packer Dave's picture

Another good one Al, like the style of these posts. Hard to disagree with any of it.

I think that going forward in this division it will be imperative for the team to have a big time blocking tight end.

Nick Perry's picture

Like everyone else I would have loved to see Mack play for the Packers but not at the price it was going to take. Having $57 million (Approximately) tied up in 2 players starting in 2019 is WAY to much. Gute tried to sign him and when it became to ridiculous he got out. Well played Gute! Now the Packers have 2 1st round picks and can either use them both or package them to move up in what will be one of the best drafts for a pass rusher in recent memory AND at an affordable contract for 5 years.....Not to shabby Gute!

I too am looking forward to watching the defense. I'd feel a hell of a lot better if Burks was healthy but all in all I think it will be the Packers defense we're talking about Monday morning, not the Bears and Mack. Well the Packers defense and the start of Aaron Rodgers mission of shedding defenses this season.

Lare's picture

Burks returned to practice today.

RCPackerFan's picture

Al,
I'm with you on Mack. I would have loved to have had him. I honestly would have considered giving up 2 first round picks for him, especially if we would have got a 2nd round pick back in the deal.
That being said, I'm not sure how this team would afford to have Rodgers contract plus Macks on the same team. Not when they would be looking to retain some players next year and trying to go after a few others. One thing we should know by now that outside of the QB it takes more then 1 great player to win a championship.

I can't wait to see what the defense looks like. We have spent so much time in the last week or so talking about Mack and the lack of OLB's that we haven't been focusing on what we do have. That is one of the best DL's in the league. With Daniels, Clark and Wilkerson I expect Pettine to run the defense through those guys. We still have Mathews, Perry and now have Gilbert. Blake Martinez is a tackling Machine. And our CB's look deeper then ever.

I can't wait to see the schemes Pettine comes up with to confuse Trubisky. Throughout the preseason he has ran a very vanilla defense. Basically just to see what each player could or couldn't do. Now we get to see what it looks like when he schemes it.

As much as I can't wait to see the new look defense, I also can't wait to see the new look offense. With the new players the offense will have a new look and feel to it. But not only the players are going to create a new look. Bringing Philbin back will make the offense better as well.

This is going to be a fun game! I can't wait to see how they look!

HankScorpio's picture

"That is one of the best DL's in the league. With Daniels, Clark and Wilkerson I expect Pettine to run the defense through those guys. "

People talk about how it is hard to find outside pass rushers. It's even harder to find inside pass rushers. And nothing bothers a QB more than pressure right in his face. That's any QB. Throw in Lowery and Adams as rotational snap-eaters behind those 3. I think there is more to work with than most people seem to think.

RCPackerFan's picture

That's honestly why I am not overly concerned with the OLB's and outside pass rush. This isn't the same scheme as the one we have seen with Capers for so long. Capers scheme was basically reliant on the OLB's to get a pass rush. Pettine will scheme different guys to create a pass rush. This will no longer be a predictable defense.

The other part to improving the pass rush will be better play on the back end of the defense. Last year receivers had way to many easy catches. The OLB's or pass rush would get there a second late. With better CB's they will allow the pass rush to get there more often.

But our DL this year I think can be special. Our starting 3 are as good as anyones. And like you said Lowry and Adams will be really good rotational players.

I can't wait to see how they perform!

dobber's picture

I agree: I think the potential is there for the DL to be in the top 5 in the league, and I'll love to see a Packers defensive unit play dominant ball. Wilkerson needs to demonstrate that he's there to win (a big new contract) before I'll say much more than that.

dobber's picture

As long as your edge guys can contain, inside rush is all good. Perry and Gilbert are both good on the edge that way. To me, CMIII will need to play with more discipline; especially against the Turbine-skys and Wilsons of the NFL world.

A Pickled Packer's picture

Until we see them play real games I'm holding my judgement and enthusiasm regarding our front line and linebackers. I know it was nothing but a basic defense being played but if you look at the start of all these games the opposing team scored every time and ran the ball quite well. This has me somewhat concerned. 110 or less is what I'm hoping for on Sunday.

HankScorpio's picture

It's been years since I've been enthusiastic about Packer LBs. I'm not sure I'd use that word now. There is a little infusion of speed with the ILBs, which has been sorely lacking.

That was what was so darn frustrating about watching the D for the last few years. You knew it couldn't work good without strong LB group and you knew the LB group never got the proper talent to really make it go. It was like a game of chicken between TT and DC to see which one would cave first--would DC adjust to de-emphasize LBs or TT put a greater emphasis on adding talent there. It guess it is poetic justice that both sides are gone now.

Hopefully new combo will mesh better together. I'm excited to see that part in meaningful action,

PackfanNY's picture

There is no question Khalil Mack is a great player. It was pretty clear the Packers (Gute) were interested and tried to (at least) make an offer. In the past that is not a direction this organization would take. In the end we didn't win out. I go back to something Gute said when he was hired. He made it clear we would consider all options to better the team. He did but it takes two to tango. Packers are not going to get every player but I appreciate he tried.
Secondly, the net result is we held on to two #1 Draft Picks in 2019. That is a great asset to have and still gives the Packers great flexibility now and beyond. I think he is doing a good job balancing the needs of the present with those of the future. I will be patient to see how this shakes out.

Handsback's picture

Al, good job and agree 100% with the Mack deal. It's one thing to pay that kind of salary, it's another to have to give up multiple #1 picks and take the Cap hit. TT wasn't a bad GM. I'm sorry, but just no way can you say that about a team that contends every year. It does appear that Gutsey is showing no fear in bringing in talent to the organization. That is different from TT and I would say an improvement. Can't help but wonder how those two #1s will be used next year.

Green Bay has the team to win another SB, let's enjoy the ride and how far they get.
Go Pack Go!

stockholder's picture

Too expensive! 2 first rds. all that $$$$. For a LB? I doubt you could get two first rounds for A-rod, and dump his contract now. And he's the legend, where Mack isn't. At some point it's all about me. Mack has it written all over him. Saving the Money is a no brainer. Paying for performance is Good business! How many veterans are really earning their money now. They all sure do have issues. But look at the facts. Break down his salary per Game. He didn't avg. 1 sack a game. He should have at least 2 pressures a game. His tackles should be a 100 a year. Choice was: is he worth it? Seems Gute wasn't the only one who saw the writing on the wall. Seems the Raiders added it up. The Mack Buzz will go away, when we select two new LBs with those #1s.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

I think the biggest transition with Gute--both in players acquired and players kept--is a complete roster makeover from recent years in terms of speed.

1. Tonyan is much faster than Ripkowski.

2. Graham and Lewis are much faster than Richard Rodgers (but then, aren't we all?)

3. MCW and ESB are much faster than Jordy.

4. Burks and Toomer are far faster than Ryan and whoever else we tried next to Martinez.

5. Alexander is faster than Randall, and Jackson--at least in play speed--is faster than Rollins.

6. Josh Jones was kept, while Vince Biegel was shown the door. Yeah, not apples to apples there, but the priority seems the same.

7. Even our new running back--Darius Jackson--is a burner, and possibly little else.

8. And our Practice Squad develops guys like Donnerson and Brown.

Point is, you can have one technician like Geronimo Allison, whose hands, route-savvy, and catch radius make for a decent target. But you can't have many guys like that, or your special teams will be too slow to gun down returners or make open field blocks for returns. You can have one Richard Rodgers on the field--maybe--but if everyone else can't fly, the defense will press and smother.

Speed isn't everything, but Gute understands it's a big field out there, and you can't enter every game as the slower team.

THAT is by far the biggest difference I see.

Turophile's picture

1. I don't think Tonyan is a Rip replacement. I have Kendicks and Lewis as the guys doing most of Rip's job. Tonyan is the developmental pick that (hopefully) bears fruit when Rodgers and Lewis are gone.
3. ESB is only marginally faster (3/100ths of a second) than Jordy used to be. (4.48 vs 4.51), but he is 2" taller along with a very slightly bigger arm length. MVS measurables are even freakier, (4.37 speed at 6'4" !) and he has good athleticism as well.
4. Burks is not a good comparison for Ryan as they serve different roles. Jake Ryan is a powerful (and instinctive) run stuffer, while Burks is faster, lighter, and mainly a coverage guy. Martinez is a better comp for Ryan.
5. The Packers young corners (King, Alexander, Jackson), have enough speed, but the big thing that sets them apart from what the Packers did have, is ability.

I don't disagree that overall the Packers are really concentrating on outstanding athletic guys. In 2017 they took the third most athletic class in the NFL (according to RAS) and this years is probably 1st or 2nd. To be fair, this emphasis began under TT.

Some will fail despite athletic prowess - for example Josh Jones has done almost nothing for a second round pick (who can flat-out fly and loves to hit), but he still might be something in time.

Speed isn't everything, but it's a good base on which to build.

dobber's picture

MM has always had that "TE in the backfield" wrinkle that he's liked to use in the past. I think we'll see that even more, now. I agree: Kendricks is more of your prototypical move TE/H-back and is likely the guy. Others who have watched the Packers special teams in the preseason will be able to say whether or not Tonyan played enough there to be active on game days...but I don't think he makes the roster as a 4th TE if he's not giving something there.

I don't know that ESB does much to excite me. Some of the positive comparisons to Nelson are there, but Nelson was a true lunchpail kind of guy: a technician. We'll see if ESB can find that.

Josh Jones looks like a traditional box safety (or ILB if you prefer). He's a missile, but if he can't just chase, I think he just gets lost. It could be he'll grow into more of a SS with time. Keep in mind, this was a guy I really liked going into last year's draft, and I was thrilled when they picked him. But when they finally line up against NFL talent, you really see the shortcomings. The ceiling is sky-high on this CB group. When (not if) House walks after the 2018 season, they still have what appears at this point to be four starting caliber CBs. Maybe the vanilla offenses teams have been playing the preseason are inflating my expectations, but between the DL and the CBs, this should be a defense that gets better and better as the season progresses.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

Thanks, dobber. Again, while I view Kendicks as more in Rip's role, the roster add-subtract was RIP for Tonyan.

ESB is what he is--supremely talented but green. Will he develop that talent? The answer lies between his ears, and in his heart.

Jones = Missile. Here's hoping Pettine can aim it.

Our young CB group is exciting on levels I haven't seen here in many years. Very promising.

dobber's picture

I'm reminded of an early TD by Williams in the first preseason game where Rip blows through the hole almost completely untouched and stands around in the endzone while Williams fights for those last couple yards. At that point, and based on what we'd seen especially last season, I thought that this was Rip in microcosm. I think there's physically a lot to like as a FB, but someone else was going to do his job better.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

1. Agreed, Turophile, though Tonyan was the new guy, whereas Kendricks was already here.

2. Jordy is a much older player in decline. ESB is already faster than Jordy ever was, and will sustain that for years to come.

3. True, if I was looking for direct role comps--but I wasn't. I was looking at the overall roster development, and Burks is clearly an example of injecting speed in our ILB group.

4. I don't disagree that the young corners bring more than speed. In fact, I celebrate it. But clearly they do continue Gute's overall speed makeover.

Really, we don't see this differently. There are always exceptions, but Gute's trajectory is overhauling Ted's very unathletic roster.

PatrickGB's picture

ALP, you nailed it. For better or worse we have a different future under GoodKiss. Perhaps it’s also due to the different management structure with no silos. We also have a new OC and DC. A new philosophy has emerged in GB. For better or worse, but today I like it.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

It's a 2-year process.

Next year, as our rookie receivers ascend, Allison and Cobb will be shown the door. As two 1st rounders enter with young athleticism, guys like Matthews and possibly Ha Ha will be out--or maybe House, Fackrell, and Jamaal Williams.

It depends on how the draft dominos fall, but two things are certain:

1. More speed will prevail.

2. This season has only begun the makeover. Aaron Rodgers will still enter lots of games this year carrying a lesser-athletic team.

But I definitely like Gute's new direction.

kevgk's picture

I don't see them ditching Allison and Williams. Haha maybe if he asks for too much money and another safety steps up. House would be a good keeper on veteran minimum for depth, depends whos behind him.

Minniman's picture

Kevgk, my thoughts are that if Allison gets supplanted on the WR depth chart by more than 1 of the rookies then it will be hard for him to keep his position next year - obvious statement, I know.

If Williams, who's role is the "pounder" RB, gets injured and can't play for large tracts of the season then that will put him on thin ice..... I think that GB see his fate being tied to this ability to fatigue defenses to open up opportunities for Aaron Jones and Monty to exploit later.

With Earl Thomas and Eric Reid being "dissed' and setting the tone for treatment of Safety, if GB's CB's excel then it may indicate that Ha Ha has no leverage to ask for any significant money anyway.

Fackrell will almost definitely be replaced in the next draft.

House is a difficult one. His play this year will dictate his future at GB (obvious statement #2). If the rookies excel he's probably gone, if they and he fail, then gone too. He really needs to play (and be schemed) well

Lare's picture

His name is Gutekunst. I know that's hard for some of you to spell, but it is what it is.

TXCHEESE's picture

Mack will eventually help Chicago's defense considerably, but at a very considerable price. The Pack is catching somewhat of a break having them as the first game of the year, especially with him and Smith both missing lots of valuable training camp time. The Bears have to be careful not to push either, or they may end up with one or both missing time with a strain or pull. I don't expect the game to be a cake walk, but I believe Rodgers is more than capable of handling any defense, as long as he has a decent OL.
My demented self would love to see the Bear's new toy pull a muscle and spend half the season in the training room. Not because I wish any ill will on Mack, but mainly because Ryan Pace has acted so smug about the trade.

4thand1's picture

GM's have to do everything to win now without mortgaging the future. Every year we see the fans of teams going nuts when their team finally makes the playoffs. Making the playoffs this year will be no cake walk, the NFC is loaded. The Packers schedule is brutal and I think 10 wins will be on the bubble. Getting off to a 2-0 start will be huge, especially against 2 division teams. It seems MM teams start slow, this year is not an option. Philbin needs a game plan to get the ball out of AR's hands quickly because we see some defenses that can get after QBs. Our o line will be more important than ever, stay healthy.

4thand1's picture

Mack became a major distraction for the Raiders. Could you imagine if AR sat out demanding his contract be done right away because other QB's were making more? No, he said I'm under contract and am here to play football for the Packers. Mack and a lot of other guys are not team players, they want to cash in and make as much as possible. It's hard to blame them though, careers can end in an instant. But it seemed a little strange that he and Gruden didn't even talk? The win at any cost became too expensive for Gute and the Packers when it came to Mack. He showed no love for his old team, what makes his new team any different, the money?

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

Good points--very good points--but let's remember these are people.

We never know how much water went under the bridge in Oakland--perhaps Mack dealt with some bad personalities. We don't know. Clearly, he didn't even want to be talked out of his anger.

Money comes first, of course, but it doesn't come only. Rodgers has his moments with Packers leadership, but he's just basically very happy here. Mack wasn't happy in Oakland.

I suspect he'll be happy in Chicago.

Since '61's picture

Good article AL. I've said from the beginning that I would love to have Mack on the Packers but that the price is too high. Especially the draft capital required.

As for Reggie White he was an all-time NFL great. An immortal player, like a Nitschke or a Unitas or Montana.
Mack is a great player but not at Reggie's level, at least not yet, if he ever gets there.

Completely agree on Gute. He is aggressively remaking the Packer's roster and is willing to make moves that TT was reluctant to do. Gute had a better draft spot than TT has had for years. Hopefully, the Packers will return to the playoffs, at least, for this season and then we can see how Gute does with picks #24 or higher. However, let's get through 2018 before becoming concerned with the 2019 draft. Thanks, Since '61

jeremyjjbrown's picture

"But is a 10-11 sack, 75 tackles player worth the price in picks and money? That's where I have to just say no. "

I'm just curious what folks think the chances are of getting a player like Mack with either of thise picks. Based on looking at recent end off 1st rounds I would put it at about 5%. Anyone have a different thought?

dobber's picture

My response would be that there are several permutations of players that can net the impact you get from a Mack, perhaps with greater versatility. The problem, of course, is that you're now relying on two-plus hits instead of just one. Good no-name defenses emerge every year that get by on cohesion, scheme, effort, and smarts. That's not the worst thing in the world.

Andrew Lloyd Peth's picture

The chances are very low, of course. Mack is more than a passrusher. He is a terrific all-around talent.

But two firsts can be used to fill big needs, and neither will cost big money for years. That's critical in building and sustaining a roster around Aaron's mammoth contract.

Mack just would have been a bad move for Green Bay.

dobber's picture

I think you hit on the key point (and have done so in the past): this is the era of finding cheap talent either through the draft or as UDFAs. Locate those players in that group (or off other rosters) that you can't succeed without, and pay them. Let the others walk for comp picks and repopulate the pipeline. You have to have draft capital to make that happen. Plenty of people spit out "draft and develop" as if it's an evil thing. Every team has to do it to some degree to be successful...I think we're seeing the Packers emerge from an era where they were shackled to it rather than harnessing it.

jeremyjjbrown's picture

I agree about Mack's money for sure. I think the chances of this resulting in a Super Bowl for Chicago are low.

Colin_C's picture

The only player I see right now that has a very good chance of reaching Mack's level play is Nick Bosa. Last Saturday I watched him demolish the Oregon St. OT's every snap. He's legit. There's definitely other good edge players next draft, but no one is more pro ready than Bosa from what I've seen. The Saints need to absolutely tank if we want to even have a shot at him.

4thand10's picture

I’ll say it again, did Mack get to a Super Bowl with the Raiders+ Carr and Amari Cooper,oh and Marshawn Lynch? Nope.

Tundraboy's picture

Adding a known quantity in Mack for draft picks for an immediate area of need was extremely tempting,but I don't feel badly based on how much Chicago gave up. In the back of my mind I wonder how much my judgement was clouded by how well Mack played against us,so Im ok with it now.

splitpea1's picture

The price was too high both financially and pick-wise. You know we're going to need one of them for the O-line.

Qoojo's picture

Speaking of White, I remember that one game where a Vikings' WR attempted to block him, and the WR got tossed about 5 yards like a ragdoll.

hodge555's picture

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owxW5rLL4is
At 2:45 you can see he does similar things to OTs in the superbowl :-)

packerfan9507's picture

Go Pack

Coldworld's picture

Not sure where you got the impression that Rodgers was reluctant to be a Packer till he was 40.

I got the exact opposite. I am sure he was happy about the money and guarantees, but he seemed really pleased with the prospect of being a one team player.

4thand1's picture

Wow it's funny how different people get opinions on things. I agree with Coldworld, I've seen nothing but AR wanting to stay in GB and retire a Packer.

packerfan9507's picture

Go Pack

Coldworld's picture

That doesn’t sway my impression, but that’s all it is, my impression.

On to some real football ...

Lare's picture

I think the NFLPA pushed Rodgers to go for a contract that set new standards when it came to player's control over their future. Once it became apparent that it wasn't going to happen, it was obvious Aaron was happy with getting a contract that paid him more than any other player in NFL history.

billybobton's picture

I would like to blame the last remnants of teddie's disease for so many refusing to recall or actually not recalling the terrible wasted first round draft choices.

Get a "GUY" like Mack? Does anyone recall a 10th pick overall? or the 5th pick overall? were either remotely like a "GUY"? Did either ever impact a game like Mack?

Go back further, Raji still has his fans because of his chubby happy commercials and the luck of Jenkins and CM3 his rookie year. Would anyone take Raji over Mack?

How about Rich Campbell?

All these platitudes about the draft tend to nonsense. In 2015 the teddisphere and this site were raving about the great picks of teddie the magnificient....

Jersey Al's picture

In 2015, Ted's drafting record was still up there with most NFL GMs at the time. The last three years, not so much at all.

packerfan9507's picture

Go Pack

Coldworld's picture

True. That seems to have been about the time where dissension crept in and, in Murphy’s words, communication and coordination within Lambeau became ineffective.

I agree with Al. Knocking Ted in the first period of his tenure is just unsupported by evidence. Just when the break took hold is anyone’s guess, but after 2015 the effects became increasingly felt.

Oppy's picture

Al, I like what you did with the Pettine's Defense section.
Hopefully, a defensive renaissance is in the 'cards' for the Packers this season.

Mojo's picture

Agree with most of the posters & Al here about Mack being too expensive at two ones combined with around $141 mil in total outlays. I keep hearing what an advantage it is having a QB on an initial cheap contract and five years of control. Much easier to build around him. Well that applies to any other first rounder regardless of position. Assuming Gute is somewhat competent as an evaluator of talent the first two rounds have supplied 70% of first-team all pros: https://www.betlabssports.com/blog/picks-perform-best-nfl-draft/

Why do you want to give up the best chance of acquiring impact players on the cheap and in the case of first rounders under your control for five years? It's a steep price for a non QB.

Also agree that this mini-rebuild is more like a two year process than just this year. Arod keeps himself in pretty good shape. He should be just as viable next year and a few years after as this year. Plus they protect QB's much more now than they used to.

As far as Mack vs. Reggie, can Mack do this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkiIqKQMRlA

or this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfyofwO776s

Well lets hope not this Sunday night.

Community Guy's picture

thanks Jersey Al.. great title for the commentary.. and right on with your thoughts and wisdom.

Samson's picture

Hell of a good article. It represents what many Pack Fans are feeling going into game 1, season 2018.

"This is truly a new era in Green Bay. Enjoy the ride."

Skip greenBayless's picture

Very good read Jersey Al. I agree. Mack is no Reggie White. The Reggie signing changed the entire Packers franchise around. Not only was Reggie one of the greatest players of all time he was also a Minister and was highly respected by every single NFL player. When he signed with Green Bay it sent a new message that it was cool and ok to sign with Green Bay after years of "threats" from coaches on other teams threatening to ship them to Green Bay. Mack will not have that same impact in Chicago that Reggie did in Green Bay. Whatever Mack is worth, Reggie would be getting double that if he were playing today.

Jersey Al's picture

I have to admit, you made me go google Dash Riprock. I knew it from somewhere, just couldn't remember where. Interestingly, a watched a youtube clip of the character on the Beverly Hillbillies and the actress in the clip was Sharon Tate.

Skip greenBayless's picture

lol. Yep, that's where it's from. Just a cool name I thought so what the hell. I believe he dated Ellie May so he had good taste.

Tundraboy's picture

That's right. At first I thought it was the Flintstone's.

Lare's picture

Agreed. While there were other great players in Green Bay's history, IMO Reggie White, Bob Harlan and Ron Wolf had more franchise impact than anybody else. They took two decades of futility and turned Green Bay into the contending franchise that it still is today.

Skip greenBayless's picture

Yeah, I remember the signing announced on the radio in 1993. I couldn't believe it. Nobody in Green Bay could believe it. Absolutely historic.

Man, it's too bad Reggie passed away at such an early age.

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