CBS offers enticing first-round trade scenario for the Packers

A pair of first-round picks and the Packers have a world of possibilities at their disposal -- even the most untouchable ones.

-- Sitting pretty with two first-round picks offers the Green Bay Packers a plethora of options as to how they can attack adding talent to their roster later this month.

CBSSports.com's Tom Fornelli presented one scenario in which the Packers walk away with one of the best, if not the best defensive player in this year's class. Ever wonder how a trade into the top-10 would look? Wonder no longer.

Fornelli's latest mock has the Packers flipping both the No. 12 and No. 30 overall picks to the Jacksonville Jaguars in exchange for No. 7 and No. 69. General manager Brian Gutekunst would then walk away with Alabama defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, someone regarded at one point as a potential No. 1 overall selection.

A Unanimous All-American and First-Team All-SEC last year, Williams chose to forgo his remaining two years of eligibility to declare for the 2019 NFL Draft. He just turned 21 years old in December and could be the face of the Packers' defense for years to come.

He would also be a perfect component for defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, who would then sport one of the league's most feared defensive lines of Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels and Williams as his primary trio.

Of course, pulling the trigger on a move like this does have its repercussions. The Packers would lose what is essentially a "luxury pick" at No. 30 but gain an extra third-rounder in the process; a round they haven't exactly aced in recent memory.

Several dominoes would also need to fall the Packers' way for this scenario to even become a remote possibility.

In Fornelli's mock, Mississippi State pass rusher Montez Sweat and Alabama offensive lineman Jonah Williams both came off the board before Williams. Both of which are players many expect to fall slightly further.

Also, according to Drafttek's trade value chart, a package of both first-round picks would get the Packers into the top-five and leapfrog them over the Oakland Raiders for the No. 4. overall pick.

What could make this scenario a little more plausible is Gutekunst's fearless tendency to trade all around the board. In his first draft as the team's general manager last year, he traded the team's No. 14 overall pick to the New Orleans Saints for the aforementioned No. 30 and a fifth-round pick, then moved back down to No. 18 in a deal with the Seattle Seahawks.

In that deal, the Packers lost their third-round pick but regained it at No. 88 in a later trade with the Carolina Panthers. If the opportunity is right, don't put it past Gutekunst and co. to work the phones just as fluidly as he did from the team's war room 12 months ago.

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Zachary Jacobson is a staff writer/reporter for Cheesehead TV. He's the voice of The Leap on iTunes and can be heard on The Scoop KLGR 1490 AM every Saturday morning. He's also a contributor on the Pack-A-Day Podcast. He can be found on Twitter via @ZachAJacobson or contacted through email at [email protected].

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Comments (69)

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BoCallahan's picture

April 02, 2019 at 05:20 pm

Stay put and fill the many holes.

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TheVOR's picture

April 03, 2019 at 09:41 am

Totally agree. Or if a QB is sitting there that someone covets and they want to jump up 4 spots to get him, I'd even love that. Anything that can get GB 4 picks in the top 50 selections of the draft is a very good day indeed. I just have to say, there will be some excellent FB players available at 12, but the pool of players at 12 aren't the same guy's that are 1-5 in the draft, so.. I really don't see a huge no brainer blue chip on the field every down type starter at 12 anyway.. Maybe the Skins, Giants, or Titans want to jump up to 12 for a QB, I'd be fine with dropping down slightly.

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Guam's picture

April 02, 2019 at 05:42 pm

Or trade back. After free agency I believe the largest hole the Packers still have is safety. No safety on the board this year is worth the #12 pick, but trading back to the early 20's puts the Packers in position to nab one of the best safeties available and pick up another second or third round pick. Given the depth of this draft and our other holes, that works for me better than a trade up.

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4thand10's picture

April 03, 2019 at 12:58 pm

Stay put, we are drafting ahead of the Vikings every step of the way.

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Rak47's picture

April 04, 2019 at 04:53 am

Best case scenario would be for Miami and Washington to both fall in love with the same QB and he be available after 11. That would be a miracle scenario for the Packers to have those teams trying to move to 12 to get their guy. Gute would probably be able to squeeze a 2nd out of the winner and only have to move back 1-3 spots in the process.

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MikeS's picture

April 02, 2019 at 05:56 pm

Stay put at 12 and 30 or package 30 and a 4th rounder to move into the 20s in Round one.

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RCPackerFan's picture

April 03, 2019 at 09:15 am

This would be nice. I like the idea overall.
But to move up from 30 with 1-4th round pick (according to trade charts), They would only move up 3-4 spots.
If they traded both of their 4th round picks they could move up roughly 6-7 spots.

If they traded their 30th and their 3rd round pick and one of their 6th round picks they could move up to 20.

Depending on who is available it would maybe be worth it.

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Lphill's picture

April 02, 2019 at 05:57 pm

Rather get Devin White or Bush plus a tight end in the first round, then best players available the rest of the way. White or Bush will shore up the middle for years to come.

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mrtundra's picture

April 02, 2019 at 09:50 pm

In mocks I've seen, White is off the board with the 4th pick and Bush goes with the 5th pick.

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stockholder's picture

April 02, 2019 at 10:16 pm

Yes . Oliver @8 , Wilkins @10. Leaves Burns @ 12. It's all about the Defense.

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meatstyk's picture

April 03, 2019 at 08:26 am

Have never seen a mock where white and bush go 4,5

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Monsmoy's picture

April 03, 2019 at 01:11 am

Bush and Hock would be awesome, but both likely to go before 20. Short of trading up for a deemed low value position, it has to be one or the other. After these two, assuming they are ILB & TE 2, there is a drop that I would not use 30 on.

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PeteK's picture

April 03, 2019 at 08:35 am

Clark and Martinez are more than shoring up the middle already.

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PAPackerbacker's picture

April 02, 2019 at 06:30 pm

There is plenty of talent in the draft for the Packers to choose from. Stay put at #12 and #30 and fill some holes. The Packers have a better chance of getting a top rated player to fill a position of need at #30 more than they do at selecting at #69. Take a good TE and edge rusher or LB at #12 and #30. And in the second round take a good safety or OL. Lots of talent to choose from at #12, #30, #44 and #75. Stay the course and keep the picks.

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mrtundra's picture

April 02, 2019 at 09:57 pm

I agree. Keep the two 1st round picks and get real talent there and grab a Safety with our 2nd round pick at #44. Whether we draft an Edge Rusher, a TE, on OL guy, or whatever position, we will find good value at #12 and #30.

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Lare's picture

April 02, 2019 at 06:35 pm

I know many people propose moving up in the draft to get an "impact" or "generational" talent.

Just out of curiosity, I took a look at the top ten rated players from 2018. Of those, 6 were drafted in the first round, 2 were drafted in the second round and 2 were draft in the 6th round. The draft number ranged from 2 to 199 (2, 2, 6, 10, 13, 24, 32, 48, 195, 199) with the average being 53.

I know numbers can be looked at in many different ways, but I think it shows that talent evaluation is not an exact science. While drafting in the top ten improves your chances of getting a top player, it certainly doesn't come with any guarantees. And teams giving up draft resources to move into the top ten need to keep that in mind.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

April 02, 2019 at 11:41 pm

The Bears traded up for Turdbisket.

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mrtundra's picture

April 03, 2019 at 08:16 am

...and the vikings traded up for Ponder.

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4thand10's picture

April 03, 2019 at 01:02 pm

And Chicago is going to have a very week draft because they mortgaged everything for 1 guy.....and they still didn’t make the Super Bowl.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 03, 2019 at 03:25 am

Yes, they can be interpreted in a variety of ways. I see 5 top players in the first 13 picks and the other 5 scattered in the next 185 picks. I like 5/13ths odds a lot better than 5/185. Put another way, if you are going back 10 drafts, 5 of the best were selected in 130 opportunities, and the other 5 best were selected in 1,850 opportunities. Don't like those odds much.

Looking for immediate impact? Per PFR, the highest CarAV for 2018 draft picks were obtained by using the 36th, 6th, 2nd, 19th, 17th, 1st, 16th, and 8th picks, with a tie for 11th best from the 9th, 24th and 32nd picks. Tied for 20th highest CarAv came from using the 3rd, 15th, 20th, 26th, 31st, 34th and 70th picks. No Jaire Alexander in there (18th pick), but he was rated as the second best CB drafted, behind Donte Jackson by one point. [Note that PFF rated Jaire considerably higher than Donte Jackson.] Jaire would be tied for 31st, but probably would have snuck into the top 20 had he played 16 games. Note that 19 of the top 20 performers were drafted within the first 36 picks (BTW that corresponds with my 4th tier of players - usually low twenties to about 40).

Looking at the 2016 draft, the top 10 highest players by CarAV were drafted 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 47, 69, 78, 135, 169. Mind, one should take PFR with a huge grain of salt since it appears to be entirely based on stats. Any position that garners stats is rated more highly. For example, PFR gives assigned 21 CarAv pts to Blake Martinez and 17 to Kenny Clark. No doubt in my mind which player was more productive over the last 3 seasons, or which is the better player.

Looking at the 2014 draft (2015 was awful for many teams), the top 15 players were drafted 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, 13, 16, 17, 20, 36, 103, and 144th. Adams (53rd) came in 19th and Linsley (161) came in at 23rd. 16th through 23rd were drafted 34, 53, 63, 64, 66, 92, 151, and 161st.

So, if you want GB to draft a player who earns a second contract worthy of something close to franchise tag money, the odds are overwhelming that the player probably is drafted in the top 9, and really by the teens or so. In 2014, 8 of the 24 players in my tier 5 prospect list (41 to 64) ranged from busts to bad picks (not just underwhelming - 10 CarAv pts accumulated over 5 seasons or less, at most an average of 2). That's a 33.3% chance of getting very little. 6 of 24 averaged 5 CarAv/season or more (25+ total), and 6 more averaged 4 CarAv/season (20-24 total). These do probably skew low. Don't do much as a rookie, and get injured in another, and your CarAV might not be high. LaMarcus Joyner only got 17 points so far, but he is at least an above average player (PFF has him as the 28th best safety, so average+ starter).

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Johnblood27's picture

April 03, 2019 at 07:52 am

TGR, How about a quick recap of what goes into making a good CarAv?

Is it starts or snaps or some statistic?

Can O lineman gain meaningful points in that system?

How much do you value the grading system?

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Cubbygold's picture

April 03, 2019 at 02:31 pm

Very interesting, helps to explain why trade value charts favor the top first round picks so heavily. GB's #12 pick is valued at 1,200 on Drafftek's board. There are 7 teams (LAC, SEA, LAR, CLE, DAL, NO, CHI) that don't have 1,200 points of draft picks through the full 7 rounds. Dallas, New Orleans and Chicago don't have 1,200 combined.

Just goes to show how important that pick #12 is, and its a bit depressing to know that the probability of success with that selection is still below 50%. Hope Gute has good luck that day!

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 04, 2019 at 04:37 am

JohnBlood27, I skimmed PFR's explanation of Approximate Value long ago and today. I think I am more willing than most to slog through tedious verbiage, but my eyes started to glaze over. What I did glean struck me as frankly bizarre.

PFR gives bonuses for making the Pro Bowl, for games started (even if the player stunk up the joint). It doesn't do justice to the good to very good player but not elite player. It takes into account positional value far too much. It gave Clark an 8 (extrapolates to a 9.8 had he played all 16 games). Clark is an elite player, but even a bad starting QB gets a 9 or better. Adrian Amos got 6, 5, 4, and a 6, so how does he earn $9M+? It graded Jaire as a 5, which seems too low to me.

What struck me as bizarre was the concept of taking the team's points per expected drive (skip long explanation) in a ratio to the league average, and get a number. Then PFR multiples that ratio by a number that varies for OL, WR, QB, TE, and RB (and which is arbitrary - selected to "make it come out right"), and the result is the maximum number of points available for each position. Eg:
GB 1.5 pts/drive/league ave (1) x 3.9 (OL) x 10 =58.5 pts.
Cle: .8 pts/drive/ league ave x 3.9 x 10 = 31.2 pts.

PFR then distributes the 58.5 points among all the OL on GB, but there are only 31.2 points to distribute among Cleveland's OL. LT Joe Thomas might deserve 16 points IMO but that would leave only 15.2 points to distribute to the other 7 to 9 offensive linemen who played that year. So Thomas has to settle for perhaps 12.

Ari scored 1.12 pts/drive, league average was 1.7 x 3.9 = 2.57 x 10 equals 26 points to distribute to the 13 OL who started at least one game for Ari. After giving 1 point to each guy who started a game, there's only 13 more points to distribute regardless of how well any particular player actually played. So, 16-game starter Mason Cole gets a 4, but he might have gotten a 6 or 8 had he played for KC, because KC had Mahommes at QB and Ari had Rosen. KC scored 3.25 pts/drive, meaning there were some 70+ points to distribute to the 9 OL on the team. RT Mitchell Swartz (PFF grade 83.5 - 4th OT) got an AV of 20, LT Erik Fischer (PFF grade 73.4 - 24th best OT) got a 14, and OT Bakh (88.4 - 1st OT) got a 15.

So, lots of problems with it. If a player missed some games, he will be docked. If he is a good player on a bad offense, he will be docked. If he doesn't get named to the pro bowl, he will get docked. If he plays a lot but doesn't start (say, #2 TE, or the Micah Hyde Role), he will get docked. PFR seems to dislike some positions. Gronkowski's best season earned a 14. That's not right, IMO.

It is free. It goes back many years. It works well for good teams (I used to add up the AV for the entire team for each playoff team and the total would be consistent with my eval of the teams. BTW, anything over 200 points is good, 230+ is an elite team.

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Green 19's picture

April 02, 2019 at 06:57 pm

Too bad Rodgers felt the need to "show leadership" in beating the Jets. I'd rather have the draft capital !!! ;)

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SpurgeonsCigar's picture

April 02, 2019 at 07:12 pm

What draft pick would the Packers be at if they had lost?

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zeroluv's picture

April 02, 2019 at 07:49 pm

The 8th pick I believe. It cost us 4 spots.

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fthisJack's picture

April 02, 2019 at 07:51 pm

i think they would have been seven or eight.

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gary g's picture

April 02, 2019 at 09:44 pm

I rooted hard for the pack to lose that game.

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MikeDV34's picture

April 02, 2019 at 11:19 pm

Then you're a terrible fan.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 03, 2019 at 03:40 am

I rooted for GB to lose the Jets game. That might make me a bad fan, but not a mindless one.

We would have picked 8th.

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John30856's picture

April 03, 2019 at 07:45 am

NEVER PLAY TO LOSE!!!

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ILPackerBacker's picture

April 03, 2019 at 01:03 pm

So when did you get on the fire MM train?

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John30856's picture

April 03, 2019 at 07:48 am

I agree in full!

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Bryan Chisholm's picture

April 03, 2019 at 07:13 am

Literally trying to find a way to finish the season in a worse way and can't.. they balled against Atlanta (LOSEEEE!) and just HAD to beat the Jets (LOSEEEEEEEE!!!) .. then gets blow out by the Lions at home ( might as well go all out now? Nothing on the line) shows absolutely nothing.. what we could do with the #8 and #30 picks.. SMH

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mrtundra's picture

April 03, 2019 at 08:17 am

No one plays to lose a game.

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Bryan Chisholm's picture

April 07, 2019 at 12:36 pm

You play to win the war... Not the battle

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SpurgeonsCigar's picture

April 02, 2019 at 07:11 pm

No No No to trading the two for one.... We need more talent quantity infusion. So many wonderful choices will be there at 12....

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fthisJack's picture

April 02, 2019 at 07:52 pm

i would prefer a trade down a few spots and get an extra 3rd! one more stab at a good player!

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Nononsense's picture

April 02, 2019 at 08:00 pm

I say Gute should try and get 3 1st round picks in this draft. 12, 30 and 32 from New England. What would it take to trade to 32 from 44? A 4th rounder, a 3rd?

Last time we made a trade back into the first round with NE, we got Clay Matthews.

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Bret Iverson's picture

April 02, 2019 at 08:23 pm

Consider trading next year's 1st round and a sixth to move into the first round this year. Trade back at 12 a few spots to pick up an additional 2nd round pick so 3 first round picks,, 3 second round picks, (package 3rd,6th and 7th). and finish with two fourths and a fifth. 3 starters for 5 years and 6 potential starters and our draft history is great in 4 and 5 rounds. 6th and 7th round drafting is poor so no loss.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 02, 2019 at 08:25 pm

Just draft BPA and while I prefer staying at 12 I would be somewhat open to bumping up from 30 to a few selections higher but my real preference would be to stay put at both 12 and 30. If trade up at all I would be interested in trading up from 44 to high 2nd round if Simmons was still available.

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bigGuy's picture

April 02, 2019 at 08:27 pm

Personally I’d avoid Alabama players that high.

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LeotisHarris's picture

April 02, 2019 at 09:23 pm

Katie bar the door! "Plethora" right out of the gate in paragraph 1, then "aforementioned" landing like a left hook in the second to last paragraph. Vintage Jacobson; just like Stockton and Malone running the pick and roll. You know it's coming, but you can't stop it.

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Johnblood27's picture

April 03, 2019 at 07:56 am

I hear Howard Cosells voice when I read your post...

Classic!

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comeonman's picture

April 02, 2019 at 09:24 pm

I would take Q Williams over E Oliver any day of the week. If GB trades up they need to grab Q Williams who was getting consideration as the #1 overall pick. K Clark, M Daniels and Q Williams could be the best D Line in the NFL. Who u gonna block ? Q Williams destroys double teams

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Johnblood27's picture

April 03, 2019 at 07:59 am

and Oliver is freaky fast and twitchy, but he is undersized and will be a liability in the NFL run game.

He looks a lot like Mike Daniels to me.

Pretty good at some things and can be exposed on others.

My feeling is Oliver will flash but ultimately on 3rd and 2 he will be targeted and the D stays on the field.

OTOH he will get a few 2nd down sacks as well as create inside havoc on 3rd and long.

Is that a number 12 overall pick?

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mrtundra's picture

April 03, 2019 at 08:21 am

Q Williams will go within the top three picks. No way we can trade up to get him. No way he falls to #12, either. Jonah Williams might fall to #12, but not Quinnen Williams.

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mrtundra's picture

April 03, 2019 at 08:42 am

It's all speculation until the draft starts.

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GLM's picture

April 02, 2019 at 09:43 pm

The only real question I have in this entire scenario is what makes anyone think Williams will be available at #7?

If he's the best defensive player, and arguably the best player, period, he should be off the board by then.

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SterlingSharpe's picture

April 02, 2019 at 10:09 pm

Exactly, he will be LONG GONE by #7.

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MarkinMadison's picture

April 02, 2019 at 10:10 pm

I feel like there are maybe 5 guys who you can say probably will be gone when the Packers pick at #12. After that, any of them could be there. So why move up?

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MarkinMadison's picture

April 02, 2019 at 10:10 pm

I feel like there are maybe 5 guys who you can say probably will be gone when the Packers pick at #12. After that, any of them could be there. So why move up?

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porupack's picture

April 03, 2019 at 12:03 am

You would rather have
@#4 Q Williams

than
@# 12 Brian Burns and @#30 Jeffrey SImmons?

or
@#15 Hockensen (or Fant)
@#27 Jeffrey Simmons (2020 1st Rnd + 2019 2nd Rnd) (basically getting next year's 1st rounder a year early)
@#30 Jaylon Ferguson
@#47 Juan Thornton (tradeback in first round)

uh....., yeah. Give me the 4-pack please.

You get a top 5 defensive player (Simmons), costing only a second rounder. That is better bargain than trading #12 and #30.

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Spock's picture

April 03, 2019 at 06:55 am

The draft is gonna fall the way the draft is gonna fall. All these scenarios are just something to fill the (24-ish) days until the actual draft. Sigh. I still like (until we actually have draft day action) the idea of the Packers staying put. The one thing I like about Gute is he appears to have nerves of steel during the draft and I feel confident he will do what he believes needs to be done very quickly. I like that. If last draft is any indication Gute should come out well (he, we, the Packers need him to do that). My fingers are crossed that Gute can nail this draft! Go, Pack, Go!

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dobber's picture

April 03, 2019 at 07:35 am

Exactly. I gave up on trying to figure out how it's going to fall years ago because the information we have is all by draftniks and scouting services, but not by the GMs who develop strategies and preferences that none of us ever know about.

It's fun to window shop and it's fun to play 'what-if?' but remember last year when the Packers were on the board and suddenly they were looking at players like James and Edmunds--that many of us thought would NEVER be there--and Landry and Davenport, who we thought would be the likely choices...and not only did the Packers trade out, but James and Edwards lasted a few more picks, Landry waited into the middle of round 2, and Alexander ended up the pick after a trade-up. It's a wild ride folks...enjoy it!

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PeteK's picture

April 03, 2019 at 08:46 am

So true, lots of fun but all it takes is a player dropping, moving up, or a trade and everything changes. It's like getting married and having children. Out with the sports car and Green Bay visit ,in with the SUV and Disney vac.

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RCPackerFan's picture

April 03, 2019 at 07:10 am

The closer we are getting (yet still seems like forever away), I am feeling like we are going to be making a trade with one or both our first round picks. Whether that is trading up or down, I think we will be moving around.
I wouldn't be surprised if they traded back with their first pick, and possibly up with their 2nd pick.

A couple of possible trading down spots with the first pick. Teams may want to get ahead of the Dolphins to grab a QB. How about Redskins at 15 or Giants at 17.

Who knows. Maybe a team like the Raiders is looking to trade up. Looking at the trade value chart they could trade both their first round picks for the Packers 1st and 3rd round picks. This would give the Packers 3-1st round picks. Or maybe they are looking to trade up. They could trade both their 1st round picks and get up to around 4 range (according to the charts), which the 4th spot is held by Oakland. Oakland would end up with 4 first round picks, and the Packers could end up with a Nick Bosa, Josh Allen, Williams type of player.

We saw last year in Gutekunst's first draft that he is willing to make bold moves. I wouldn't be surprised by anything at this point. There are so many possibilities.

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Renllaw's picture

April 03, 2019 at 07:11 am

Under this mock scenario the Packers out think themselves. Losing the 30th pick for Williams when there are other elite prospects also falling is not a sound strategy. If they stay put, this mock has Ferrell, Gary, and Oliver all available at 12, with Fant and Wilkins also available at 30. This is a team that needs several more pieces and drafting twice in round one doesn't come around very often.

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carlos's picture

April 03, 2019 at 07:12 am

Here we go again. Trade our picks away

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Sean-Luc Shanahan's picture

April 07, 2019 at 11:00 am

Fans blow my mind. Last year it’s “great! We trade down again! Never getting premium talent!”

This is proposed and now people are complaining for the exact opposite. What do you mean here we go again? When have the packers traded up to a spot higher than where they were drafting in the 1st?

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Packman60's picture

April 03, 2019 at 07:47 am

No way the Packers would trade up for Williams. He'll be available at #12.

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John30856's picture

April 03, 2019 at 07:48 am

THE GOOD THING IS THAT ALL THE SCENARIOS IN HERE mean nothing. The pros will do the picking

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meatstyk's picture

April 03, 2019 at 08:25 am

That scenario is a pipe dream

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mrtundra's picture

April 03, 2019 at 08:33 am

Draft day trades will screw up everyones' boards. Many of the players mocked to the Packers may be gone due to teams moving up in the draft or trading away their 1st Round picks for more picks later.

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PeteK's picture

April 03, 2019 at 09:02 am

I'm staying put. I still would not draft a D lineman instead of an OT. I would take OT Taylor over Oliver, Williams ,or Ferrel. We already have better choices for our defensive front but not on the O line. We need to provide more consistent blocking for our running game and time for our young receivers.

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Sean-Luc Shanahan's picture

April 07, 2019 at 10:58 am

The D-line has just as many holes as the O-line. Who isn’t a question mark after Kenny Clark?

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Chemical X's picture

April 03, 2019 at 10:21 am

Generally not a fan of trading up, but getting a top 2 player at 7 would be a no brainer. Will he be there at 7 though? No.

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Big gar's picture

April 03, 2019 at 12:45 pm

Regardless of who we draft the key is arod. If he doesn't show up early we will all know. Must get back to his game and want to be a packer

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Sean-Luc Shanahan's picture

April 07, 2019 at 10:56 am

This would be a dream scenario. Q. Williams has the best chance of being Aaron Donald level good. Pairing him with Kenny Clark and mike Daniels would be incredible. If he even falls to 5-6 packers should do this 110%

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