During ‘lying season’, which is the few weeks before the NFL Draft, when teams and agents are pumping out a deluge of information through the media, a lot of which simply isn’t true, it can be difficult to know what to believe and what to ignore.

The buzz around the Packers drafting Kentucky cornerback Maxwell Hairston has grown in recent weeks, and while on the face of it, there are reasons to dismiss this. I’m here to tell you: buy it.

In case you missed the links, Daniel Jeremiah gave Hairston to Green Bay in his mock draft a few weeks ago. Mel Kiper mentioned him in his final mock, despite giving Mykel Williams to the Packers, saying they would also “take a look” at Hairston.

On the NFL Daily podcast, Nate Tice of Yahoo Sports said of the Packers: “I know they like Hairston”.

At first, I refused to believe the rumours based on the simple fact Hairston weighed 183 lbs at the combine. Green Bay has not drafted a corner that light since at least 2010.

The lightest they have drafted in that time is 184 lbs, when Brian Gutekunst selected Shemar Jean-Charles, who he admitted was a significant departure from their usual standards, and did not exactly pan out.

Not only was Hairston 183 lbs at the combine, he was 179 lbs at the Senior Bowl. There’s no way, right?

Well, Hairston posted a picture on his instagram story recently of him apparently weighing 193 lbs. 

Some prospects bulk up before the combine, weigh in but do not test, then drop the weight and do athletic testing at their pro days, but do not weigh in. They do this to get the best of both worlds on their official athletic profile.

Hairston’s post was after the combine and his pro day, so it is clearly not a case of him trying to artificially put on weight to have it on official record, then immediately drop it again.

So why else would he be putting on weight? Either because he intends to play in the 190s, or wants to show NFL teams he can.

If the weight issue is in fact a non-issue, everything else about Hairston makes him a picture perfect Packers first round pick, starting with his athletic testing.

Hairston was the fastest prospect at the combine, running a 4.28 in the 40-yard dash, which earned him an ‘elite’ speed score using the Relative Athletic Score (RAS) model. That is extremely important, and here’s why:

Eight of the nine first-round picks taken by Brian Gutekunst, and every non-quarterback, has had an elite speed score. Not good speed, not great speed, elite speed.

The only players ranked between 11 and 50 on the consensus big board, which is where the Packers are likely to be getting their first-round pick from, with elite speed:

• Shemar Stewart
• Jihaad Campbell
• Matthew Golden
• Nick Emmanwori
• James Pearce
• Josh Conerly
• Maxwell Hairston

Campbell, Emmanwori and Conerly are unlikely picks due to a lack of need at the position, while Pearce reportedly has character/work ethic concerns.

That leaves Stewart, Golden and Hairston.

Stewart and Golden have both been to Green Bay on visits, while Hairston has not yet. Gutekunst has said in the past though that if he does not have any questions that need answering, he will generally leave a player alone so as not to arouse suspicion.

If the Packers did take Stewart, he would be by far the least productive pass rusher Gutekunst has drafted in terms of pressures per season as a college starter. Even the traits-focused Packers have production standards to a point.

The only testing Golden did was the 40, which was of course excellent, but Gutekunst has not drafted someone with as little athletic testing as him in the first round during his tenure.

Golden also has a ‘poor’ RAS size grade, which is something they have never taken as an outside receiver, and they do not need a slot receiver. Even though Hairston is light, he is over 5’11, so has an ‘okay’ RAS size grade overall, and that’s before he apparently put on weight.

Hairston also did the vert and broad jumps, excelling in both and receiving an ‘elite’ RAS explosion score. He does not turn 22 until June.

Hairston’s top two athletic comparisons according to RAS are Denzel Ward, who was the fourth overall pick in his class, and former Packer Sam Shields. 

Just from an overall draft principle standpoint, we are talking about a young, elite and explosive athlete from the SEC. That is where the Packers live in the first round.

Drafting Hairston would also fulfill another of their principles: the double down.

Under Gutekunst, whenever the Packers have a roster need, they have hit it with both barrels in terms of free agency and early in the draft. In 2019 it was Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith and Adrian Amos in free agency, then Rashan Gary and Darnell Savage in the draft.

Last year they signed Josh Jacobs and Xavier McKinney, then drafted Marshawn Lloyd and Javon Bullard in the first three rounds. They just signed Nate Hobbs in free agency, so it is likely they are going to take a corner in the first three rounds of the draft.

Assuming they do want to draft a corner, they are going to have to be flexible on something. There is no perfect prospect for them in what is a weird cornerback class, where lots of the top players were unable to, or did not test.

• Will Johnson did not test, has short arms, and is probably not making it to pick 23.
• Jahdae Barron has really short arms and is turning 24 years old this year.
• Shavon Revel did not test and just turned 24.
• Trey Amos has ‘great’, but not ‘elite’ speed, only had ‘okay’ explosion testing and is 23.
• Azareye’h Thomas only had ‘okay’ speed and had incomplete testing.
• Benjamin Morrison did not test and has short arms
• Darien Porter is 24.
• Jacob Parrish is 5’9 ⅔”

That is all the corners currently projected to go in the top 100 of this draft, according to the consensus big board.

If they do not break precedent on something for a cornerback this year, they are not going to take one. Hairston can (and maybe already has) put on weight, whereas the other guys listed cannot ‘fix’ their respective disqualifying factors. Hairston is the corner for them in this class.

In terms of Hairston as a football player, he is a competitive, energetic corner who has a lot of the characteristics Green Bay will like. He has played almost exclusively on the perimeter, but due to his physical dimensions, should also have the versatility to play in the slot if needed.

At Kentucky, he played in a defense which had a balanced mix of man and zone coverage. On the zone side of things, he performed well in cover-3 looks. Man to man and cover-3 is the type of defense Jeff Hafley wants to play in Green Bay.

His run defense and tackling is up and down, but the effort is always there, and with more bulk on his body, he could be more consistent in that regard.

Ball production is something the Packers covet in their defensive backs, and Hairston had five interceptions in 2023, including two pick-sixes in one game. He had six interceptions in two seasons, compared to only three touchdowns allowed.

In 2023 his PFF coverage grade of 85.3 was better than Mike Sainristil, Terrion Arnold, Nate Wiggins, Ennis Rakestraw and Cooper DeJean, who all went in the first two rounds of last year’s draft.

His play was not as strong in 2024, as he missed time with injury, and also played in a Kentucky defense which drastically fell off from the previous year.

Green Bay is going to think they are getting an absolute steal if they are able to select Hairston. If he had followed up his 2023 performance in 2024, he would likely be long gone before the Packers pick at 23.

If Hairston is on the board when the Packers are on the clock in the first round, expect them to sprint the card up.