We all predicted a regression for the Lions this year, and we were all right. Interestingly, while Aaron Glenn has become one of the worst head coaches in NFL history in New York, and Ben Johnson turned the Bears around in one year, it was the Lions' defense that led the regression. The offense was still good. 

Offense

The Lions were 6th in EPA according to Sumer Sports. Not a massive drop from third place in 2024. Impressive given the fact that they lost one of the top 3 or 4 centers right before the season and one of the top 3 or 4 tight ends during the season. And they kept the efficiency up despite a mid-season change in play caller from, now former, offensive coordinator John Morton to head coach Dan Campbell. 

It makes you think that no matter what happens, having Jahmyr Gibbs, the Sun God and Penei Sewell on the roster is going to make the team good on offense no matter what. They have the o-line to run the ball when the other team is trying to stop the run and when the other team is trying to stop the run, they can give Jared Goff enough time to carve up a weakened pass defense. 

The next step for this offense is probably going to be moving on from Goff in a year or two. They just can't afford him while paying those guys plus LaPorta (plus Jameson Williams!). We've talked about this endlessly already and will talk about it even more in the coming months, but Jared Goff with a $70mm cap hit this year is extremely rough. Would you really take Goff for $70mm over Malik Willis for $10mm? Or Mac Jones for $15mm. 

I wouldn't be shocked for the Lions to make a move at QB in the first or second round of the draft. 

Defense

Last off-season, the Lions swapped out Carlton Davis for DJ Reed (a press-man corner for a short, zone-only corner) and did not add a second edge rusher to help Aidan Hutchinson. The result was a fall from 7th in EPA to 13th. 

You may be shocked to hear that the Lions still had a top-13 defense. Neither of their two corners rated as starter level based on PFF grade, and Terrion Arnold was 94th. Kerby Joseph, the dirty player who played like a top safety in 2024 but was meh in 2022 and 2023, was meh again and got hurt. His one good year was good enough for an $86mm contract, but we'll see if he gets back to 2024 form. 

Anyway, the defense also has stars: Aidan Hutchinson is a top-three edge rusher, Brian Branch is a top-five safety, Alim McNeil can be unblockable at times and Jack Campbell had a breakout season. But defense is a weak link system. It's really similar to the Packers: sure Micah Parsons is getting pressure a few times per drive, but if Keisean Nixon forgets that he's on the planet Earth you can still give up a 70-yard TD. 

The Lions have some work to do with this defense in the offseason. It's time to make it about the pass game. 

Special teams

In solidarity with the Packers' front office, IDGAF about special teams.