My One and Only Packers 53-man Roster Prediction.
By JerseyAl
Here it is, my annual stab at predicting the Packers' 53-man roster.
The Turk is a cruel taskmaster, and soon, 37 NFL dreams will hit a bump in the road or be ended completely.
It's never a fun day, but it is a fun exercise to try to predict the outcomes.
51 correct is my best score ever, 47 my worst. I think I'll be closer to the lower number on this on. Hey, that's predicting my predictions!
Here goes:.
OFFENSE: 26
QB: AROD, Kizer
RB: Williams, Montgomery, Mays, Ripper (it's very possible they IR Mays, though, and keep Bouagnon)
TE: Graham, Lewis, Tonyan
WR: Adams, Cobb, Allison, MVS, Kumerow, Moore, Davis,
OL: Linsley, Taylor, McCray, DBAK, Bulaga, Lucas, Spriggs, Murphy, Bell, Pankey
(I know I'm likely wrong about Kumerow, but just like last year when I insisted on Gilbert over Fackrell, I'm sticking to my guns. Because that should have happened and so should this!)
DEFENSE: 24
DL: Daniels, Clark, Wilkerson, Lowry, Adams
ILB: Martinez, Burks, Morrison, Thomas,
OLB: Matthews, Perry, Gilbert, Fackrell, Odom
CB: King, Alexander, Jackson, House, Williams, Waters
S: Clinton-Dix, Brice, Jones, Whitehead
(Super ironic that I had Fackrell cut last year in favor of Gilbert - WHICH SHOULD HAVE HAPPENED! - and this year he stays by default - no one has shown to be any better and he is a big special teams contributor. Sigh...)
SPECIALISTS: 3
Crosby, Scott, Triner
(One less gimme this year - we actually have to pick a long snapper! )
PRACTICE SQUAD:
Boyle, ESB, Greene, Brown, Biegel, Martini, Donnerson, Looney, Day, Mbu
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"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of many hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He is also a recovering Mason Crosby truther. Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP.
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Comments (73)
Thegreatreynoldo
August 31, 2018 at 01:11 pm
I like this. Doesn't mean I won't nitpick.
Kerridge over Rip on merit, usage (pass pro and lead blocking). STs, well um....
Daniels over Mays. Can go with 2 RBs on Sept 1 and add either back on Sept. 2.
Kumerow gets cut Sept. 1. Waived-injured scares GMs off and he automatically reverts to GB - after the waiver period ends. Add him back onto the 53 then. Yes, I am playing games but I think I'm within the rules.
Bell is an OG only. I forgot to watch him there. Can he play OG? Think I'd take the $700K in cap savings. Not sure about Murphy's injury. How long? OL who can play will get scooped up.
Add Greene over Bell. Depending on Murphy, I'd love to protect another player on the 53, maybe Donnerson, or even Boyle.
JerseyAl
August 31, 2018 at 01:12 pm
Rip gets it because he can be an emergency halfback, Kerridge can not.
Coldworld
August 31, 2018 at 01:35 pm
Best stab at it I’ve seen although I do find myself puzzled by your selection of Odom over Beigel. Since when do two wrongs make a right? Two times nothing is nothing. I laude acknowledging Beigel’s unworthiness of a roster spot, but I can’t (despite much effort) find Odom has shown anything either.
My question for you, Al, is that, given your perspicacity last year in preferring Gilbert to Fackrell on the grounds of potential impact, doesn’t the same logic militate for Donnerson over Odom?
P.s. I have to second your stance that Kumerow should make the roster. He just should.
jeremyjjbrown
August 31, 2018 at 03:20 pm
I like Donnerson better than Odom for sure.
JerseyAl
August 31, 2018 at 04:15 pm
I don't feel the same way about Donnerson as I did for Gilbert.
Coldworld
August 31, 2018 at 06:00 pm
I admit the case last year was stronger in that Gilbert was more advanced then than Donnerson is.
Donnerson does appear to have at least the physical attributes to pose a threat to the QB however. Fackrell and particularly Beigel don’t seem to have that in their tool box at the moment.
Oppy
August 31, 2018 at 07:38 pm
You get a thumbs up for forcing me to google the definitions of two words.
I can't tell you the last time I had to google the definition of a word in English.
GBPDAN1
August 31, 2018 at 01:38 pm
I agree with this list. But, I don't think they will cut WR Brown due to being a draft pick and having potential. I do agree that Kumerow is way more NFL ready, though.
JerseyAl
August 31, 2018 at 02:57 pm
a lot of WR with potential are going to get cut. Every team has them.
Ferrari Driver
August 31, 2018 at 04:00 pm
Certainly agree with that; I want production and Kumerow has demonstrated that thus far.
GBPDAN1
August 31, 2018 at 04:21 pm
I hope they keep Kumerow. Anyone know how the shoulder is coming along?
stockholder
August 31, 2018 at 06:58 pm
I think his age will put him Back on Ps. 26 1/2 is older than they like. I want to see the call on others. St Brown still outplayed Moore. (With his Hands.) Does he get the chance over a earlier pick?
porupack
August 31, 2018 at 08:53 pm
Jmon Moore should go to PS. Period. 3 WRs have outplayed him and have as much upside, or more.
d1scostu
August 31, 2018 at 01:14 pm
10 OL, and ESB & Biegel on the PS; I don‘t know...
JerseyAl
August 31, 2018 at 04:16 pm
Murphy isn't ready to play, so it's only 9 to start. Not a lot of quality depth, go for more quantity. Also, they've carried 10 before. Biegel has done little to earn a spot - he needs time on the PS.
croatpackfan
September 01, 2018 at 02:45 am
Look at 9:59 of Mike McCarthy last press conference. He said that Kyle will be ready for week 1!
https://www.packers.com/video/mccarthy-next-24-hours-are-for-final-decis...
Michael Hughes
August 31, 2018 at 01:41 pm
Not enough decent lineman to justify keeping 10 of them. Not even close. If you need another body down the line then sign one.
porupack
August 31, 2018 at 02:15 pm
Totally agree. Only 7 OLman prove worthy of staying. The rest will survive PS, and even if they don't....no loss.
Gute should reduce to 51 and pick up 2 on waivers; RB and OLman.
Turophile
August 31, 2018 at 02:51 pm
I agree. Quantity does not equal quality.
Bakh, Taylor, Linsley, McCray, Bulaga, Spriggs, Pankey, Patrick are my top eight.
The ninth (if they keep 9) is either Day (too light in the pants for immediate duty, imo) or Murphy. With Murphy, it depends on how much his injury was thought to have impacted his last game. I cannot see 10 O linemen being kept, especially as they don't often give much on ST. Bell wouldn't make my 53.
I know Biegel didn't look good, but I'm still tempted to give him a bit more time (I don't think he gets to the Packer's PS).
I do wonder if this is the year they choose to go without a FB, they are getting used less and less in the league.
I'd go ESB over Davis myself, but that does leave the problem, who returns kicks and punts ?
Letting Boyle test waivers to make the Packer's PS looks viable at the moment.
I like Tonyan over Kendricks at TE.
It's just possible the Packers go with two RBs until they get Jones back (but that won't happen if they don't keep Rip).
Worth remembering (as JA pointed out) that while cutdown time is fun time for us fans, predicting the results, it can be devasting to those that are cut. Commiserations to all who tried to make the Packers this year, and couldn't hit the 53 or PS.
NJMagic
August 31, 2018 at 03:10 pm
Would not be surprised if they weigh Murphy's ankle more than we fans do and are not ready to give up on him yet. Similarly, I think they weigh Bell's interior versatility at guard more than we way his failure at tackle.
Glad we got Morrison, was shocked he made it to the edge to tackle the LSU back 1:1, but sad we lost Lenzy. No dev DB worth keeping.
Mojo
August 31, 2018 at 02:04 pm
I was going to post my 53, but by tweaking Al's I can get to the same place.
Agree on the QB's. No way Boyle should be on the 53 after some of those horrific 2nd half passes last night. If someone picks him off waivers so be it, better than picking him off during the game.
RB's is tough. With Monty's injury history I see them keeping Bouagnon or some other teams cast-off until Jones returns in week three. I think they try and get Mays on the PS. He didn't play yesterday but I think they cleared him to practice so they can still PS him then. They probably keep Ripper just because. If not - meh.
TE - I have Kendricks surviving and Tonyan replacing Biegel on the PS.
WR - Al has it just like I think they'll do. EBS to the PS. This is assuming Kumerow can go. And one comment on Moore. Lofton mentioned last night on the broadcast how Moore doesn't put his mouth-guard in on running plays (something I noticed a few games ago). Someone needs to tell this doofus to knock it off.
OL - I'll say just nine of them make it although only six or seven are any good. Think they get rid of Bell although you can make a case for either Murphy or Pankey. Day to PS makes sense. This group really goes down after the starting five. Hopefully you only have to sub-in one at a time.
DL - Seems right on the money. Mbu and Looney to PS
OLB's - I say they keep Biegel since he can play ST. Else, the rest of seem plausible except has Odom done anything either?
ILB - Martini or not? I say you can PS him so Al's list looks reasonable.
CB- The first five are pretty easy the hard part is the sixth. Waters is as good a guess as any.
S- yup
Specialists - Not much drama other than the LS. It's whoever Crosby wants.
PS - I had Biegel on the 53 and Tonyan on the PS, else the rest looks spot-on. The PS has a good mix of athletic prospect types and position coverage.
I'm too lazy to see if my total adds up to 53, so if it's short then add another teams castoff to our PS and elevate one of the PSers. If it's to much cut one of the bottom feeder o-lineman or the Ripper.
JohnnyLogan
August 31, 2018 at 02:01 pm
I predict you'll be closer to 47
DraftHobbyist
August 31, 2018 at 02:03 pm
I think Odom has a much better shot than people give him credit for. I almost put him on my 53, but cut him late. He was a waiver claim, so that shows the Packers liked him to some extent, and it's highly unlikely that feeling all went away already.
Guam
August 31, 2018 at 02:19 pm
I agree with TGR, they cut Bell who has done little and bank the cap savings. Patrick and Pankey can cover the guard spots. I would add Biegel as Bell's roster replacement for OLB depth.
As much as it pains me, a Wisconsin alum and avid Badger fan, I agree with Tonyan over Kendricks. He has just played better.
Coldworld
August 31, 2018 at 03:47 pm
Thought Bell was decent as a guard.
Guam
August 31, 2018 at 05:55 pm
He was okay at guard, but so were Patrick and Pankey. Bell is expensive insurance for the guard spots and I would prefer to have more cap space for Gute to work with.
Coldworld
August 31, 2018 at 10:33 pm
I looked on Pankey as tackle #4 now with Murphy going to IR to recuperate. That would leave Bell as capable of playing interior on either side. Think we need another guard.
Skip greenBayless
August 31, 2018 at 11:21 pm
Agree with Tonyan over Kendricks Guam and I honestly don't believe it's even close when the coaches get together. What the hell has Kendricks done since he's been here? Absolutely nothing other than being from Wisconsin. This guy has no drive and no upward curve. He's here cashing a pay check and nothing more. Tonyan has a higher ceiling and continues to get better and better. I'd be shocked to hear Tonyan not make this team. The good news is the Packers for the most part don't make too many mistakes. We all see it and so do the Packers. He'll make the team.
porupack
August 31, 2018 at 02:29 pm
Al,
I agree Kumerow needs to make it, and here is hoping this adds to the collective will; to will it to happen.
I'll also will it to happen that Ripkowski gets cut. Save space and pick up a waiver wire.
2 Olineman need to get cut, at least Bell, Murphy. Murphy will survive waivers. Bell, doesn't matter.
Pick up a waiver wire and take a chance that luck is more probable that the current reserve OLman.
Keep Kendricks. He should contribute more in year 2, so I can't see cutting him. More I think about it though.....you might be right.
Davis?? I sure hope you're wrong. Seen enough of him. Cut and keep ESB. MM hates fumbles! How does he stay?
Would like to see GMartini stick. He is a baller, and looks like he can contribute this year. He adds more than Herb Waters, no? But...again, you probably right HWaters over Gmartini.
Yep, Boyle's 4th quarter made that 3rd QB issue quite cleared up. PS for him. No fear of getting snatched.
stockholder
August 31, 2018 at 02:41 pm
Why didn't you keep another CB? Gute traded for Morrison. Bet he could get something for Rollins. Think he stays.
Demon
August 31, 2018 at 03:58 pm
Stranger things have happened. I NEVER thought anyone would give a pick for Hundley. Rollins is a different story.
One mans trash is another mans treasure.
JerseyAl
August 31, 2018 at 04:19 pm
I have two on the practice squad, so I'm satisfied with the numbers.
ricky
August 31, 2018 at 02:42 pm
You forget Khalil Mack on defense.
Mojo
August 31, 2018 at 03:31 pm
If Khalil and GB team-up do you think we can call them Mack & Cheese?
You heard it here first folks.
HarlanHuckleby
August 31, 2018 at 04:10 pm
They’re probably gonna cut that Rodgers guy that they only let play a series in Game 2. It’s too bad, I admired the kid’s moxie. Anyway, that opens a spot up for Mack.
Samson
August 31, 2018 at 03:53 pm
So if you keep 7 WRs, how many dress on game day?
This isn't TT's team anymore. Gute's a lot smarter.
5 WRs on the 53 with 1 or 2 on the PS.
I'm always amazed at how Packer Fans are obsessed with toooo many WRs. --- Kinda like 5 TEs a few years back. --- Makes no sense for a team whose "D" and "OL" need the bodies.
JerseyAl
August 31, 2018 at 04:22 pm
Well, they have kept 7 WR before, so it's not as outlandish as you seem to suggest. Personally, I would have cut Davis and gone with six, but that's not what I think the Packers will do, which is the point of this exercise.
One good point you make though is that this is the first time we are trying to figure out what Gute will do. We could all be way off.
Coldworld
August 31, 2018 at 04:32 pm
A lot depends on how many contribute to special teams at the back end. WRs are often key parts of the return mix or as gunners, like CBS. Not sure how the rookie WRs factor in current special teams.
Oppy
August 31, 2018 at 07:41 pm
It's possible a team could activate WRs based on opponent match ups, as well.
Demon
August 31, 2018 at 04:11 pm
I like your list Al. It's too bad that Fackrell and Odom are on it. Hopefully Gute can find something more productive in cut players.
As for Kumerow and tonyan I'm with you. They should be on the 53. There should always be a spot for someone who comes to camp/practice and gives everything they've got!!
JonathanSpader
August 31, 2018 at 10:20 pm
Odom was one of those cut player pick ups.
TheBigCheeze
August 31, 2018 at 04:07 pm
kendricks, biegel and davis are trash.....
JerseyAl
August 31, 2018 at 08:20 pm
#Analysis
Lare
August 31, 2018 at 04:39 pm
Thankfully, we're all quibbling about the bottom five players on the roster, none of which will see much playing time besides ST's unless other players get injured.
And remember, PS is generally a revolving door of players throughout the season.
Thegreatreynoldo
August 31, 2018 at 06:40 pm
I always like our team better just before cutdowns. After cutdowns, some positions look stark.
NoNonsense
August 31, 2018 at 07:33 pm
Offense 25
QBs 3
Rodgers, Kizer, Boyle
RBs 3
Williams, Montgomery, Mays (Jones suspended)
TEs 4
Graham, Lewis, Tonyan, Kendricks
WRs 6
Adams, Cobb, Kumerow, MVS, Allison, Moore
OL 9
Bahk, Taylor, Linsley, McCray, Bulaga, Spriggs, Lucas, Pankey, Bell
Defense 25
DLs 6
Daniels, Clark, Wilkerson, Lowry, Adams, Mbu
LBs 9
Perry, Matthews, Gilbert, Martinez, Burks, Morrison, Thomas, Biegel, Fackrell
CBs 5
King, Jackson, Alexander, Williams, House
Ss 5
Dix, Jones, Brice, Greene, Rollins
STs 3
Crosby, Scott, Triner
PS
LB Donnerson, DL Looney, CB Waters, OL Day, Light, RB Daniels, PR Davis, CB Hawkins, WR St. Brown, TE Byrd
Murphy to IR
After waivers
Swap RB May's for RB Roc Thomas if cut by Queens.
Cut Fackrell for Jayrone Elliott who was cut by Saints.
Boyle, Kendricks and Greene are my last in first out guys if we claim anyone else.
Oppy
August 31, 2018 at 08:19 pm
Interesting idea about Jayrone Elliot.
Coldworld
August 31, 2018 at 10:38 pm
Always thought Jayrone must have irked someone really badly to get let go. Seemed better than others kept at the time. Wonder if that person is still with us because he was better than Fackrell or Beigel are.
mamasboy
August 31, 2018 at 07:44 pm
If Kumerow would have gone to the Jordy Nelson school of TD celebrations, he would be catching passes from a hall of famer this year and maybe longer. I can't wait for a player to get a concussion while butting heads after a good play. Bitch about concussions, and then bang heads to celebrate. What the?????????????
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou
August 31, 2018 at 07:53 pm
It bothers me when a Packer fan alludes to a Packer player as trash. Seriously?
JerseyAl
August 31, 2018 at 08:21 pm
wholeheartedly agree.
Oppy
August 31, 2018 at 08:40 pm
I'm guilty of calling Kizer's performance vs. Oakland "hot garbage."
MWendlandt
August 31, 2018 at 08:07 pm
My Projections:
QB (2): Rodgers, Kizer
RB (3): Williams, Montgomery, Mays (Jones SSPD)
WR (7): Adams, Cobb, Allison, MVS, ESB, Moore, Davis (KR)
TE (4): Graham, Lewis, Kendricks, Tonyan
OL (9): Bakhtiari, Taylor, Linsley, McCray, Bulaga, Spriggs, Murphy, Patrick, Pankey
DL (5): Daniels, Clark, WIlkerson, Adams, Lowry
EDGE (6): Matthews, Perry, Gilbert, Fackrell, Biegel, Donnerson
ILB (4): Martinez, Burks, Morrison, Thomas
CB (6): Williams, King, Alexander, Jackson, House, Hawkins
S (4): Clinton-Dix, Brice, Jones, Rollins
ST (3): Crosby, Scott, Triner
Practice Squad: QB Boyle, RB Daniels, WR Kumerow, TE Byrd, OL Light, OL Day, DL Looney, OLB Odom, ILB Martini, S Greene
porupack
August 31, 2018 at 09:04 pm
That's my list except at Safety: Rollins is cut, and Greene is in.
sonomaca
August 31, 2018 at 08:25 pm
Amichia seems to have vaporized.
JerseyAl
August 31, 2018 at 08:31 pm
He seemed like a massive reach from the outset.
JonathanSpader
August 31, 2018 at 10:30 pm
How was Amichia a reach? He was a 6th round draft pick with impressive measurables. A 6th round pick is hardly a reach. He's a poor man's Spriggs.
JerseyAl
August 31, 2018 at 10:32 pm
My opinion was he wasn't worthy of being drafted.
Since'61
September 01, 2018 at 08:34 am
My shot at the final 53:
Offense 25
QB 2 - AR and Kizer
RB 4 - Monty, Williams, Mays and Bouagnon. When Jones returns Bouagnon waived
WR 7 - Adams, Cobbs, Allison, MVS, Moore, ESB, Kumerow
TEs 3 - Graham, Lewis, Tonyan
OL 9 - Linsley, McCray, Lane, Bak, Bulaga, Patrick, Pankey, Spriggs, Bell
Defense 25
DL 6 - Daniels, Wilkerson, Clark, Adams, Lowry, Mbu
OLB 4 - CM3, Perry, Gilbert, Donnerson
ILB 4 - Burks, Martinez, Morrison, Thomas
CB 6 - King, Alexander, Williams, House, Jackson, Waters
S 5 - Dix, Brice, Jones, Whitehead, Green
ST 3 - Crosby, Scott, Triner
Gute puts his stamp on the team by continuing to replace TTs guys like Davis, Rip, Kerridge, Kendricks, Fackrell, Beigel etc... Thanks, Since '61
JonathanSpader
August 31, 2018 at 10:33 pm
At OL I'd cut Bell and replace him with Day. So far Day has looked the best at backup center. If Linsley goes down who replaces him on your list?
What has Waters done in the preseason to earn a spot on your 53? Hawkins I thought had a better preseason.
Since'61
September 01, 2018 at 08:33 am
Actually I could go either way between Bell or Day. Lucas Patrick can backup at Center if necessary.
I'm figuring Hawkins to the PS. Waters looks solid to me, but I could with Hawkins. Between Bell, Day, Waters, and Hawkins we're talking the last 2 or 3 spots on the 53 so to me it's not a big deal either way. Thanks, Since '61
4thand10
August 31, 2018 at 09:32 pm
I think they keep an extra DL to make up for the less than stellar OLB play. Certainly they didn’t bring in Sheehy, Mbu and others to compete with Clark, Daniels and Wilkerson. I’ll predict that they have to go base occasionally when they run into the Sequan Barkley’s of the NFL. Keeping only 5 DL sounds a little slim. Especially if injuries crop up here and there.
4thand10
August 31, 2018 at 09:33 pm
Disregard everything I said.. I just saw 6 :-)
4thand10
August 31, 2018 at 09:36 pm
Why all the Mays love? Not being sarcastic. I’m curious because he has literally shown nothing.
JonathanSpader
August 31, 2018 at 10:34 pm
Lack of depth at RB.
Grandfathered
August 31, 2018 at 10:42 pm
Pick up Janis, Ringo, Elliot, Gunter, Barclay and Charles Johnson. Kidding of course
Coldworld
August 31, 2018 at 10:47 pm
Not sure Elliot suggestion should be facetious.
sonomaca
August 31, 2018 at 11:01 pm
Was Elliott cut?
sonomaca
August 31, 2018 at 11:02 pm
Yup, just saw it. I’d pick him over Fackrell.
sonomaca
August 31, 2018 at 11:00 pm
Rather have Janis than Davis on ST. The rest, no, although might have to think about Gunter if injuries in secondary.
stockholder
September 01, 2018 at 08:28 am
Janis has regressed. Speed is gone. hands are hard now. Adams clearly has turned out to be the best Wr the packers drafted in 2014. Congratulations to MM and Rodgers for staying with him.
Coldworld
August 31, 2018 at 10:45 pm
Sometimes a lack of film is better than a surfeit. More seriously, I believe Mays was looking good till pulling up after that TD run.
badaxed
September 01, 2018 at 09:32 am
Will the packers (McCarthy) who spout about the players who produce should play, honor this rhetoric or revert to their standard practise of "keep the draft picks on the roster" theme.
Recievers are supposed to catch the ball.
Moore has too many drops, yet i see the packers keeping him over Kumero (someone who seems to be in the right place (according to Rodgers) and catches the ball).
This (keeping the draft picks) will probably be what happens.
If that happens, so much for Mc Carthy's rhetoric.
rhet·o·ric :language designed to have a persuasive or impressive effect on its audience, but often regarded as lacking in sincerity or meaningful content.