Ryan showed some flexibility in these negotiations. His signing bonus is less than Matt Stafford’s $50M. The parties used a $10M option bonus in 2019 to keep Ryan’s cash flow higher. The three-year cash flow of $94.5M is record-setting. The total guaranteed and guaranteed at signing sets new records. There does not appear to be any fluff in the contract: no incentives, no roster bonuses, no workout bonuses: it looks to be all clean cash.
There are numerous articles noting that no team has ever won a Super Bowl with a quarterback making more than 13.1% of the salary cap. It remains to be seen if that premise holds water. It seems very likely at any rate that both Ryan and Aaron Rodgers likely will have cap hits in excess of 13.1 percent, and likely in excess of 15%. Since Ryan’s cap number will be $31.8M in 2020, the salary cap would have to increase to $242.75M, an increase of $65M. The salary cap would have to reach $261.83M by 2022 to keep Ryan’s cap hit under the 13.1 percent threshold.
May 05, 2018 at 12:24 am
The more I think about QBs and contracts and such, the more I think how embarrassingly desperate the Vikings were .... to guarantee that boatload of money for a good, but not extraordinary, Kirk Cousins. Wow.
May 05, 2018 at 04:59 am
I think Ball is on the ball. Let's hear how Aaron and he make the deal. I think it will be inovative and more team friendly...
May 05, 2018 at 11:07 am
Let us hope so, Croat. Atlanta and Ryan did do the four main things I illustrated in a previous article about how AR's contract might look:
1. The signing bonus is a little lower than one might have thought. In my example, it was a lot less with the option bonus being a lot more.
2. Both used an option bonus starting in year 2 to keep the cash flow up to the player but that is amortized to keep the cap hit spread out.
2a: Atlanta added a 2nd option bonus (designated as a roster bonus) in year 5 and amortized into year 6.
3. Both contracts have 6 years. I dumped $10M in dead money into year 6 while Atlanta put $5.75M in the last year.
4. Both put the large cap hits in 2021, since that year might be uncapped while the parties find out exactly how the new CBA works.
We still have no certainty what AR's demands will look like. For now, add $2M to $4M to each year's cap hit and you'll get $30M to $32M AAV.
https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/how-to-extend-aaron-rodgers-contract-and-s...
May 06, 2018 at 04:15 pm
I think your predictions are on solid ground....
May 06, 2018 at 06:28 pm
I agree. When I read TGR's article I was stunned. I know the Falcons are counting on the next CBA to cover Ryan's contract, but those numbers are insane by any measure. 13% of total team salary for one player out of a total team roster. As '61 says "Hi partner". Well, the owners did it to themselves, so lets see how they will wiggle themselves out of this.
May 05, 2018 at 05:51 am
We'll remember 2018 as the year when QB's stopped signing contracts for services and started receiving lifetime endowments.
May 05, 2018 at 06:51 am
Maybe Aaron would accept stock in the team instead of guaranteed cash. I have a couple shares he could have.
May 05, 2018 at 08:55 am
If Rodgers played for a team with an owner his salary negotiation strategy would be for him to sit at the table and start the conversation with "Hi partner". Then go from there.
When the FA era came to baseball, that is how Mickey Mantle said he would negotiate when he became an FA. Of course he was retired by then, but I would love to see the look on an owners face when a player with generational talent like Rodgers says Hi partner.
Thanks, Since '61
May 05, 2018 at 10:16 am
Nick Foles.
Yeah, I said it.
Generational talent or not, I let go of a franchise ruining proposition.
Many championships have been won by a team without the "best" QB in the league. Indeed, every Lombardi championship was of that type.
Yeah, I said it.
The Super Bowl winning QB hasn't been considered as the best QB in the league at that time in many of the SB's.
RWilson, Flacco, EManning, Brees, Roeslisberger, BJohnson, Dilfer, Warner, Elway(past prime), Rypien, Hostetler, Williams, Simms, McMahon, Plunkett, Theismann
Some who were considered the best QB at the time of their SB win include Brady, PManning(only 1 when considered best), Favre (only 1), Aikman, Young?, Montana. Thats all for SB winning QB's considered the best when they won the SB.
QB's who got their team to SB but lost include Ryan, Newton, RWilson, Karpernick, Roethlisberger, Warner, Grossman, Hasselbeck, McNabb, Delhomme, Gannon, Collins, McNair, Chandler, Bledsoe, O'Donnell, Humphries...
QB's considered the best at the time who lost the SB include Brady, PManning, Favre, Kelly?, Elway, Marino...
It does not take the GOAT to get to, and win, a Super Bowl.
May 05, 2018 at 02:49 pm
people don't usually respond well when you speak truth in the face of long-held sports axioms.
Not only does it not take the GOAT to get to and win a superbowl, but having the GOAT isn't a guarantee of it, and in and of it self should not set the expectation, either. It takes a team effort, circumstance, and a little good fortune to do it.
Great post
May 05, 2018 at 04:19 pm
Thanks Oppy.
I am used to just getting 5 or so down votes even if I say the sun will rise in the east. Whats up with that?
May 05, 2018 at 06:51 pm
Join the club!!! People don’t like it when “we” make sense!!! I gave you an UP VOTE... FYI... ;~€)
May 05, 2018 at 10:21 pm
Thanks W.
I dont care much about thumbs up or down, whats that all about anyways? I should care if someone agrees or disagrees with my opinion? Maybe write a response and stick your thumb.
It just seems stoopid sometimes when a completely sensible statement with no overly positive or negative connotations gets thumbs down.
Makes me completely disregard the whole thumb concept.
May 06, 2018 at 10:20 pm
"Generational talent or not, I let go of a franchise ruining proposition."
Upvote, downvote, I suggest you generally ignore them. Though you might consider the above simply a "completely sensible statement," it is one that is probably going to be controversial.
Last December there was a thread about what position we should target in the first round and I wrote QB, which was less than popular.
May 06, 2018 at 11:12 pm
I remember that.
I down voted you.
Hahahahahahaha