Why Green Bay will Beat Washington and why it Might Not
Breaking down why the Packers will beat the Redskins as well as a reason or two why they might not.
One of the great things about Aaron Rodgers in his time with the Green Bay Packers has been his ability to play well after a loss. It's one of his many great qualities and healthy or not, it will be needed Sunday in Washington if Green Bay going to erase the memory of the tie against Minnesota.
When you talk about teams that have a bad taste in their mouth, the Packers have to be chief among them. While the stakes weren't nearly as high and the result turned out different, last week's loss (tie) to the Vikings felt similar to the 2014 NFC Title game. At least it did for me. Green Bay had so many chances to close the deal and simply couldn't find a way.
Of course, the penalty on Clay Matthews didn't help. The phantom holding call that took away a Jimmy Graham touchdown didn't either, but the bottom line is that the Packers still had more than enough chances to close out the game and didn't do it. Kicking five field goals can't happen and Rodgers, as great as he is, bears some responsibility for that too.
But let's forget about last week. Today, the Packers take on the Redskins in an important game for both teams and here are some reasons why the Packers might win, as well as one or two why they might not.
Why Green Bay will win
It's probably never fun for opposing defenses to face Aaron Rodgers, but it's especially worrisome when he comes in fresh off a loss. He's going to be motivated and you would think the entire team would be. That kind of thing can give you a boost early but in the sweltering heat at FedEx Field, a sustained high-level of play from Rodgers is what's needed to win.
Even though Rodgers has been listed as questionable all week, he is expected to play and even though he's not 100 percent, he needs to be sharp. That's because, through two games, the Redskins have the top pass defense in the NFL led by corner Josh Norman and a pretty solid pass rush.
Washington does have Josh Norman in the secondary, who will probably cover Davante Adams for much of the game, but that's still a matchup Green Bay can win. The Packers should also be able to get the ball to Randall Cobb and Graham. Another player that should help the offense this week is Aaron Jones. He may not see a ton of carries this week but if he can rip off an explosive run or two, it could be huge for the Packers offense. Expect Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery to get the first chances to establish the run, an important part of keeping Rodgers in manageable situations.
Without his ability to escape, Rodgers is somewhat limited, but if the Packers can keep Washington off balance and Rodgers in good spots, 24-28 points should be doable. If Green Bay gets that, there is no reason it shouldn't win this game.
That may not sound like a lot of points but in Washington, the Packers aren't dealing with an explosive offense. For a comparison, the Vikings are far more dangerous. Even Chicago might have more weapons. In two games, Washington has scored just 16.5 points per game, despite having the 12th-most yards in the league. Alex Smith is a solid quarterback but he's been more of a game manager this season and is throwing most of his passes to running back Chris Thompson and tight end Jordan Reed.
Both players could pose problems for the Packers and it will be interesting to see if Josh Jackson is deployed on Reed. Thompson is going to be a nightmare and might force Green Bay to use more defensive backs when he's on the field but him catching a bunch of passes isn't the end of the world. What Green Bay can't do is give up a long, fluky touchdown to Paul Richardson or Jamison Crowder and as long as Tramon Williams, Jackson and Jaire Alexander are the primary corners, it shouldn't.
Jaire Alexander has been impressive so far for the Green Bay Packers. pic.twitter.com/yYDOz5BSg1
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) September 20, 2018
Speaking of reasons why the Packers will win, the play of Alexander and Jackson is a big one. Both players are earning high grades from Pro Football Focus and Mike Pettine went as far as to suggest that Alexander has been Green Bay's best defender through two games.
What's not debatable is that the level of play at corner is light years ahead of where it was last season. It went from a major liability, to arguably a strength. That's a dramatic difference and it will show up again Sunday.
Why the Packers might lose
The only way Washington is going to win this game is if it turns into a slugfest. The Redskins are solid, not spectacular on defense but if they can hold Green Bay to around 17-20 points, they will have a chance to win. With Rodgers hurt, some of the chunk plays are missing from the offense and that plays right into the kind of game Washington wants to play.
The Redkins want to pound the rock with Adrian Peterson and Thompson and rely on Smith to move the chains, which he does well and so far this season, he's been on point, completing 71 percent of his passes. Down the field though, he has struggled which could lead to lots of dinks and dunks. Smith is good at that kind of game and with his legs, he tends to keep the chains moving. What's even better about his game is his ability to take care of the ball. Through two games, he has zero interceptions and if he gets through the game without a turnover, the Redskins should be right in the game.
If the turnover battle is even, Green Bay should win the game, but if it tilts toward the Redkins, it will make winning on the road that much tougher. At first sight, Green Bay is the better team with more impact players on both sides of the ball. However, if the Redskins can turn it into a defensive grind and keep it close into the fourth quarter, who knows what might happen. We learned that lesson last week.
That's the formula for the Redskins but holding Rodgers and the Packers to under 20 is easier said than done, particularly when he has a point to prove. And after what happeend last week, Rodgers will want to prove a point, which is why the Redskins shouldn't feel overly hopeful heading into Sunday.
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Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru




Comments (17)
4zone
September 23, 2018 at 08:11 am
Green Bay is not an 'it', they are a 'they'.
jeremyjjbrown
September 23, 2018 at 08:31 am
"It's probably never fun for opposing defenses to face Aaron Rodgers, but it's especially worrisome when he comes in fresh off a loss."
Good thing for the Skins the Packers didn't loose.
4zone
September 23, 2018 at 08:35 am
Nice try, but not buying 'it'.
NickPerry
September 23, 2018 at 08:45 am
It sure FELT like a loss Jeremy. Yes it was a tie but when you have a call like that against Adams with the "Push-Off, then the BOGUS call on Taylor, and an even worse call against Matthews, the last 2 DEFINITELY changing the outcome of the game, I felt like the Packers were cheated straight up.
To me this felt more like the "Fail Mary" game because the Refs decided BOTH games with terrible, pathetic, I want to punch that Ref in the face calls. The 2014 NFCCG was such a clusterfu** of bad decisions we still agree about who deserved most of the blame.
Just my positive outlook on those games ; )
hobowilly
September 23, 2018 at 09:33 am
Mr. Perry, i'm not sure i can ever forgive MM for losing the NFC championship game against the sea chickens. The only karma thing that happened was the final (dumb call) outcome in the SB, but i'm not much for the Bellacheat folks that tend to stroll to the playoffs each year. I still love GB's makeup, but mostly because of AR, and now, i can see what Gute is doing on a day to day basis to try to improve all positions. IMHO, a lot depends upon how GB schemes games, obviously executes, but also how or how not they change things up as conditions warrant. I believe they have a very good roster to contend.
4zone
September 23, 2018 at 08:16 am
Time for the youth movement. Leave House as your #4 DB. If AR doesn't play today, bring in that smoking fast MVS to stretch the field, then run Jones at um. Man this could be one scary offence, even with Kizer at QB.
jeremyjjbrown
September 23, 2018 at 08:33 am
I agree that having Kizer at QB is scary...
4zone
September 23, 2018 at 08:40 am
Touché jj
Lphill
September 23, 2018 at 08:21 am
The Redskins beat the Cards who might not win any games then only put up 9 points against the Colts. This is a game the Packers should use the entire play book and put up 40 in the first half and rest Rodgers the second half. No way this should be a close game .
NickPerry
September 23, 2018 at 08:47 am
If the heat IS that much of a factor it's all the MORE reason to use Jones a little more. Let the O-Line AND Marcedes Lewis create a few lanes and watch him go. Especially with Rodgers instead of Hundley in the game.
4zone
September 23, 2018 at 08:50 am
Anyone know Lewis's play count for the first two games?
Oppy
September 23, 2018 at 10:43 am
21 offensive snaps, (15.33%)
12 ST snaps (18.46%)
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/2018-snap-counts.htm
PatrickGB
September 23, 2018 at 09:18 am
My worry is the long complete pass from Smith. It would be unexpected and and doubt that HHCD would be of any help.
JonathanSpader
September 23, 2018 at 09:21 am
Lewis's snap count: 7 in the first game, 14 in the second. Only 21 plays isn't a lot but at least his usage doubled against MN.
4thand1
September 23, 2018 at 09:57 am
It takes this team a few weeks to figure shit out.
Since'61
September 23, 2018 at 09:38 am
Reasons why the Packers will win:
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Packers OL
3. Packers CBs
4. Packers TEs
5. Packers RBs
Reason Packers could lose:
1. The officials confusion, negligence and stupidity.
Go Pack Go! Thanks, Since '61
JDK52
September 23, 2018 at 10:40 am
"...but in the sweltering heat at FedEx Field"
In Landover it's raining, with a high of 61. This game heavily favors GB's offense. I like Jones, Williams, and Monty today. Rodgers won't need to try to do much against that secondary with those three ready to rip.