Thompson Needs To Do Better, Later
By PackerAaron
Tom Silverstien has a piece up about Thompson's predilection for trying to find value in the later rounds of the draft. As he points out, Thompson hasn't been nearly as successful as his mentor Ron Wolf was. I would caution that guys like Donald Driver and Matt Hasselbeck took years to become Pro Bowl players - it's too soon to dismiss Thompson's late round picks, but up until now they have been less than inspiring. DeShawn Wynn has flashed, as have Johnny Jolly and Desmond Bishop. But Thompson hasn't plucked a quality starter like Tauscher from late in the draft (Yes, he picked Whitticker - note I said quality starter).
I've made it pretty clear that I'm one hundred percent behind Thompson's M.O. of building almost exclusivley through the draft. I think the Steelers and the Colts have shown that this is the best way to build a solid team that can always be in the mix when it comes to playing for championships. But both those teams, as well as teams like the Patriots and the Ravens, two other teams that have had strong draft-first philosophies when it comes to team-building, have done a much better job of nailing their selections throughout the draft, not just on Day One.
Now, some might say this is the result of Thompson's constant trading back, that he is letting talent go by him in favor of getting more chances to hit on guys later in the draft. I think there's some merit to that argument, but what is abundantly clear is that he needs to start making better selections on the second day. It's all well and good to get players like Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings on the first day and not have the second day pan out as well IF you then augment your drafting missteps with the occasional free agent. But Thompson has left his mediocre players, the Tony Moll's and Michael Montgomery's of the world, on the back end of the roster. Last season, it absolutely killed the Packers when a number of them were called on to play.
Now, I think some of those late round guys may still blossom. I think Johnny Jolly in particular was playing lights-out football the last three games of 2008. But waiting on guys to mature and improve can cost a team any real depth when a rash of injuries hits, like it did last year. Thompson loves to say how he wants 'good football players' - he needs to find better ones on Day Two.
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Comments (13)
April 23, 2009 at 09:27 am
How good was ron wolf at the day 1 picks??
April 23, 2009 at 09:31 am
Buckley,
D'Onofrio,
Teague,
Michels,
Mayes,
Holliday,
Edwards,
and Vinson??
That is 8 first day picks for 9 years of being a GM...Wolf was a great GM but at the same time had TONS of busts. You are not going to hit on every pick. Even the best miss at least 1 a year.
PackerAaron
April 23, 2009 at 09:34 am
You're missing the point - Wolf didn't cling to the draft as his only source of acquiring players. Thompson does. Of course you're going to 'miss on some' - Wolf then went and traded or signed free agents. If Thompson doesn't want to do that, and it's clear he doesn't, he needs to improve his batting average on draft weekend. Pretty simple really.
April 23, 2009 at 09:37 am
oops forgot about Aaron Taylor the 16th pick in the 1994 draft, he played well but for a 16th pick?? Even Tony M. played a couple of seasons. There are other close calls too like Ross Verba, John Michels, even Wayne Simmons was the 15th pick and played 5 decent seasons for the packers but never made a probowl. Seems like Ron Wolf had trouble with DB and OL in the early rounds.
April 23, 2009 at 09:38 am
I guess I see your point, but wolf did love the draft and loved getting extra picks in later rounds.
PackerAaron
April 23, 2009 at 09:49 am
Oh - Wolf was horrible in the first round. He even jokes about it to this day. But he was an absolute magician on day two...
April 23, 2009 at 09:59 am
Didn't TT sign Woodson, Pickett, Donald Lee, Bigby, in free agency and trade for Ryan Grant? Thats 5 starters for 22 spots.
Also has TT not added depth via free agency? With Tramon W., Martin, Chillar, Hunter, Bush, and now with Preston and Smith. That is another 7 players plus the 5 previous starters is 12 players probably going to make our 53 man roster which is about 23% acqurird via free agency/trades plus our long snapper Goode if you want to include him 13/53=25%.
Just because TT does not overpay for free agents does not mean he does not participate.
PackerAaron
April 23, 2009 at 10:15 am
The majority of those players were acquired when he was reshaping the roster. In the last two years, it's been Frank Walker, Brandon Chillar, Anthony Smith and Duke Preston. That's fine and I liked all those signings (still don't understand why they didn't play Walker more) but people like to show Woodson and Pickett as proof that Thompson will get guys when they're there. He did. He hasn't lately and last year the Packers sure didn't seem like a team with a lot of quality depth behind those starters. It looked like a team with a lot of mediocre players that were direct results of Thompson's drafts.
April 23, 2009 at 10:28 am
So because TT is happy with his roster and does not think he needs to sign free agents, "Its What have you signed for me lately?" This does not sound like a positive argument for the Green Bay Packers.
The reason TT probably didn't pay Walker more is because Walker bearly played as it was, 12 games and 17 tackles 1PD....
PackerAaron
April 23, 2009 at 10:44 am
No no - PLAY Walker more, not PAY him more.
And note - I've been on record, several times as a matter of fact, that this team is much more talented than people think. That doesn't mean you stop trying to improve.
April 23, 2009 at 11:23 am
Maybe Ron Wolf was so good on the second day because he was so poor on the first. Your seventh round players have a hard time developing into good players if they can't make the team because your first 3 draft picks are all better today. Granted, this argument has its holes as well as its merits, but this does happen to a certain degree every year. Guys who have a lot of potential just don't have enough time to develop because of the need to have the players with the most ability right now on your team.
As far as comparing Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson in free agency, you also have to consider the huge change in team's ability manage their salary cap. When Wolf started as a GM, he was the best at this, he always had room to sign someone at a position of need, while keeping his own players happy. Other teams would bump up against the cap regularly and because of that couldn't keep their own players. Now that teams, by and large, know what they're doing, top end free agents rarely hit the market. Of course, Big Albert was out there this year, but his price was so high that only Washington would pay him, but the next guy in line was Chris Canty. Chris freaking Canty. He's good, but he's not anywhere near being great, and definitely not as good as what he was paid, although, realistically, the Pack didn't even have a shot at him because he wanted to go to New York.
Sorry, I ended up rambling a bit, but I don't have time to edit because I got to get back to work. I hope you can make some sense of this.
PackerAaron
April 23, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Jayme - you ramble all you want. Good stuff.
April 23, 2009 at 12:56 pm
Ah PLAY him more, well that makes more sense.
No I dont believe you stop trying to improve we were 6-10 last year its not like we were awesome, but remember one thing TT does not do is over pay. Canty is over paid, Colin Cole is over paid. Personally I think the packers are better for that.
I too think the mighty Pack with be back in 2009 and much better I would say 11-5 as a prediction. (we were what 20? points away from that last year?) I think Dom Capers is going to turn this defense into what it was 2 years ago. I think this team is pretty well suited for the 3-4 and we will hit Cutler hard in the mouth. I cant wait for september 13th.