The Lass Word: First Down Is Killing The Packers
Team can't overcome negative plays.
By KenLass
One of the reasons for the struggles of the Green Bay Packers offense in general, and quarterback Jordan Love in particular, is too many third and long situations. In the loss to the Raiders Monday night, the Packers had a total of twelve plays on third down. Seven of those plays required at least five yards or more to move the chains. On six of those seven plays, Green Bay failed to convert.
But a closer look reveals the key down when the Packers have the ball is first down. When the Packers gained at least three yards on first down, they were able to convert the subsequent third down play five out of seven times. AJ Dillon converted with third down runs of 3 and 5 yards, and a fourth down plunge of 3 yards. Short passes to Dontayvion Wicks and Luke Musgrave moved the chains on two other third and short situations.
However, when the offense either lost yardage, or threw incomplete on first down, they were 0 for 5 in converting the following third down play.
The disastrous end around to Watson lost five yards on first down. Two plays later Love faced a third and eight and threw incomplete short over the middle. That ended a promising drive and the Packers settled for a field goal. On the next possession, Patrick Taylor was stuffed for a three yard loss on first down. Two plays later on third and eleven, Love threw incomplete to Taylor. Later Dillon lost one yard on first down. That led to a third and eleven in which Love threw a harmless four yard checkdown to Luke Musgrave.
Following the big 77 yard pass play to Christian Watson, Green Bay ran Dillon up the middle on first down. He was stoned for a two yard loss. Love threw incomplete in the end zone on third and goal. In the final quarter Love was sacked by Maxx Crosby on first down. On second and seventeen, Love forced a pass to Watson that was intercepted. Then on the final drive, Love threw incomplete to Doubs on first down. His third and ten pass was picked off in the end zone.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out the correlation between poor first down performance and struggles on third down. Failing on first down puts you immediately behind the chains. It automatically shifts your opponent into pass rush mode. Which, in turn, often results in an incomplete or very short pass on second down, and there you are. Third and long. No man’s land for a quarterback and play caller.
So how can the Packers get better on first down? The easy answer is keep running the ball effectively. That means getting consistent push from your O-line. They had some success at this against the Raiders, as Dillon ran hard between the tackles. But eventually Las Vegas adjusted and shut it down between the tackles. The coaching staff must then get more creative. They must scheme ways to get around the edge. Maybe some quick throws to the receivers on the line of scrimmage. Aaron Rodgers used to do a lot of those. Not so much with Love.
Certainly it would help if Aaron Jones could get back. He has the speed and cutback vision to make those stretch plays work. But balky hamstrings tend to linger throughout an entire season, and Jones’ availability can’t be counted on from week to week. With Patrick Taylor cut, perhaps the Packers are going to use the bye week to see what they have in Emmanuel Wilson.
Love has had some success pulling the ball down and running on first down. It tends to be easier to escape the pocket on first down because defenses are less likely to be sending additional pass rushers. Maybe the young QB should look to run more. With the speed of Watson, Doubs and Jayden Reed, and the size of Musgrave, there has got to be a way of scheming short, effective pass plays crossing over the middle, or fading to the boundary. What happened to the quick slants?
I wouldn’t even mind a few more gadget plays. Remember the double pass with the throwback to the quarterback? It didn’t work because Love didn’t field the throwback cleanly, and had to throw off balance downfield, but he did have a receiver wide open. Try a couple more of those. What have you got to lose?
Ultimately, it’s squarely on the coaches to figure out what these offensive players can execute, and to design plays that will work. This should be doable if you agree that the Packers have adequate talent on offense, young though it may be.
If the coaches continue to fail in this area, then we have a different issue.
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
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Comments (41)
Lphill
October 12, 2023 at 03:41 pm
How about some quick slant passes I’ll take 4 yards every throw as long as it puts you in third and short .
Vachio
October 12, 2023 at 04:00 pm
IMO, that's the big thing that's been missing from this offense. Easy, high percentage throws to get Love and everyone else into a rhythm and some favorable 2nd and 3rd down situations. From the outside looking in, it seems like LaFleur is overthinking everything and ends up outsmarting himself.
PearlyBakerBest
October 12, 2023 at 06:52 pm
The problem is defenses know the Oline can’t protect so they play the slants and by the time the second window opens the pocket has collapsed.
jannesbjornson
October 13, 2023 at 08:25 am
Looked like the Raiders were squatting on the short routes.
Tundraboy
October 13, 2023 at 05:12 pm
Yeah how about them. It's like they disappeared slowly and slowly from the playbook. Replaced by something I guess.
coolhand
October 12, 2023 at 03:42 pm
The problem on offense is the line. No push in the run game and very poor pass protection especially when the d line runs a stunt. With Jones out, we need speed to get to the outside. I thought Taylor or Wilson were fast enough but the blocking is poor and MLF seems to always call outside runs to the short side where the defense has the most strength. Watch replay of the Watson sweep and just see how poor the blocking was. What do theses guys do all week at practice?
jannesbjornson
October 13, 2023 at 08:27 am
Walker needs to be benched, or moved to his natural spot on the right side. If he controls his guy, Watson gets to the edge with blockers in front of him. A poor effort by Walker.
lou
October 12, 2023 at 04:01 pm
I am surprised in reference to the offensive lines run blocking that no one has mentioned the loss of Mercedes Lewis who was a premiere run blocker and veteran leader. Watching Deguara and the 3 new TE's have trouble even brush blocking (note the MLF - Musgrave sideline exchange) while Lewis regularly pancaked top notch defensive ends and linebackers it is not surprising the backs average per attempt is so low. I realize the rookie TE's have a learning curve but watching Mayer and LaPorta (drafted just before Musgrave) excel right out of the gate blocking and receiving shows it can be done. Lewis for the Veteran Minimum (counts less against the CAP) may have been the route to go for one season.
PhantomII
October 12, 2023 at 10:31 pm
There are 2 sides to that coin. Lewis was a good blocker and a non factor in the pass game as another receiving threat. The reason why his loss is a big deal is he was covering other players poor blocking ability who should not be starting in the NFL.
jannesbjornson
October 13, 2023 at 08:31 am
Tyler Davis was lost for the season. He was the Blocking TE. He looked better than Lewis in the second half of last season. If your OTs need help, replace them with better players from rds one-two.
SicSemperTyrannis
October 13, 2023 at 03:16 pm
Nijman and Mt Caleb are both better than any OT Gutey's able to replace them with.
splitpea1
October 12, 2023 at 04:04 pm
They might also try Deguara and Sims more. Hey, they've caught everything thrown their way so far. Use E. Wilson for at least a change of pace for Dillon if Jones can't go.
Where the Packers especially need to get more successful is inside the five-yard line. That was pathetic last time, and it's not a new occurrence. You simply have to think of something more creative (that would be just about anything) than Dillon between the tackles; hell, that wasn't even good enough to put ourselves in a position for a brotherly shove, although I don't know if we'd be capable of it anyway.
SicSemperTyrannis
October 13, 2023 at 03:18 pm
Definitely #31 Wilson not being used enough is a mark against MLF. Only one of MANY coaching mistakes.
cdoemel
October 12, 2023 at 05:15 pm
ML’s first year they ran a run play where the C and one side or the other of the O line, including a TE, slide out and down the LOS after the snap blocking and bulldozing and the RB then followed behind them, bumping down the line looking for a hole. Seemed to work well, but I’ve not seen it for a while.
SicSemperTyrannis
October 13, 2023 at 03:21 pm
Can't run behind Myers.
Packer_Fan
October 12, 2023 at 05:58 pm
Firstdown is not the issue. Execution is. Players missing blocks. Players not aware where the defense is. Love not accurate and under throwing his receivers. The defense is not set when plays start. And on and on and on.
The team needs work and better coaching. Barry's schemesare terrible.
It is like the play design that was worked on during the off season isn't working and they have to start fresh on the go.
CanPackFan
October 12, 2023 at 06:31 pm
It all starts and ends with the Oline. They look awful. I wish Steno would spend more time with them vs his duties as an overall OC. MLF "should" be able to handle those other OC duties?
One other thought is that maybe we need an offensive consultant to help? Someone who can be objective and not a yes man to the current coaching staff. Our current staff is too mired in mediocre/subpar expectations to be objective.
SicSemperTyrannis
October 13, 2023 at 03:23 pm
Mike Wahle.
Starrbrite
October 12, 2023 at 06:35 pm
…speaking of an offensive scheme…Since MLF was hired, I haven’t witnessed anything remotely resembling an offensive scheme. I keep watching/waiting for something—but nothing.
I once read MLF’s scheme arrangements are to make alignments look alike so a defense can not recognize what’s coming —? It sounds good on paper—I don’t see it.
A few have already commented that “everything seems so hard”—couldn’t agree more.
Go Packers!!!
ricky
October 12, 2023 at 08:03 pm
At this point, is there any indication the coaches ever have a "Plan B" ready to go when their original offensive plan is shut down by the defense? It seems this staff is incapable of making adjustments on the fly. It happened with Rodgers, and now the same problem is occurring with Love at QB.
SicSemperTyrannis
October 13, 2023 at 03:25 pm
Adjustment? What is this "in-game adjustment" of which you speak?!?
Must be some kind of foreign language, nobody on our coaching staff has ever heard of it.
MooPack
October 12, 2023 at 10:56 pm
"With the speed of Watson, Doubs and Jayden Reed, and the size of Musgrave, there has got to be a way of scheming short, effective pass plays crossing over the middle, or fading to the boundary. What happened to the quick slants? "
Exactly. With the poor play of the OL, they have to get the ball out quickly. Many of the 1st options are open from what I've seen, but Love has been hesitant. Don't misread this as a total fault of Love. MLF has absolutely got to give this offense a better scheme and Love confidence in those middle crossers/quick slants. Tell him to trust his eyes and make the throw. It used to be a staple of this offense. Somewhere along the way fear of interceptions ruined this offense.
ImaPayne
October 13, 2023 at 10:45 pm
Why are three of our receivers within five yards of each other. Why arent they spreading out and taking the defenders with them. Why is Watson running at half speed and is always blanketed when he is supposed to be real fast.
Ya where are those quick slants and the te plays to give love some quick short passes?
NickPerry
October 13, 2023 at 07:33 am
"The Lass Word: First Down Is Killing The Packers
Team can't overcome negative plays."
THIS coaching staff is the problem. Now I'm not saying this entire team is a bunch of players just ready to break out the moment they get decent coaching.
BUT... Steno is in WAY over his head as a OC and so is Butkus as the O-Line coach. MLF is now being questioned as to IF he can even coach. I'll say this, he can't adjust and he fails to put the best 5 O-Linemen on the field for what, 3 seasons running?
I don't know if Jordon Love is the new "Dude" at QB for the Packers and I'm NOT going to say he is or isn't 5 games into his first NFL season as a starter. Not with TEs and WRs dropping passes and running the wrong routes A LOT of the time. This is EXACTY what we thought Love would look like.
But this offense has REGRESSED and it's obvious Matt LaFleur doesn't have a clue how to fix it. He had 10 days between games before Las Vegas... An extra 3 days isn't going to help Matt.
Ron Wolf where are you???
Vachio
October 13, 2023 at 08:18 am
Right on! The lack of adjustments kills me because it is so fundamental. Under Holmgren, we always knew adjustments would be made. You could count on it. With this coaching staff, you can count on them NOT making adjustments. If we can't hammer the square peg into the round hole in the first half, we'll just hammer it harder in the second.
Guam
October 13, 2023 at 08:46 am
NP: I couldn't agree with you more that the O-line is a huge part of the problem. The Packers desperately need a good running game to help Love and yet our best run blocking O-linemen (Nijman according to PFF) is sitting on the bench collecting dust. And Walker has been struggling mightily with his run blocking. Why not make the change?
And stop asking the rookie TE's to make difficult reach blocks. At this point they both would have a tough time blocking their grandmothers straight ahead much less trying a reach block against a pro DE. They just aren't good blockers yet - accept that fact and stop asking them to do things they aren't capable of. You almost guarantee a failed play when you ask more of them than they can do.
Lefleur needs to simplify his offense to accommodate the capabilities of the players he has, not expect young players to do more than they can at this point. Draft and DEVELOP.
dobber
October 13, 2023 at 09:00 am
CW said it before and there has to be something true about Nijman moving into the doghouse at some point. We don't know what he did or said or how he's performed, but they certainly seem dead-set against putting him on the field with the OL 1s.
Leatherhead
October 13, 2023 at 10:07 am
Without projecting into somebody's subconscious, I can only know what I know. At the start of the 2022 season, he was our backup at LT behind Bakhtiari, and injuries forced the Packers to play him at RT, where he didn't look particularly good.
In the last year...12 months....he's been passed on the depth chart by Tom and Walker . Two Day 3 guys....Tom, the 4th rounder, passed him soon, because he's good. Tom is good. It took Walker a year of development but the coaches have him at LT, meaning that he's ahead of Nijman, and he's still on the bench while guys like Newman are playing.
As I see it, there are only three possibilities:
1) Walker is better than Nijman at this point , just like Tom was last year at this point, and the coaches are right, and the coaches are right, again.
2) Walker is not better than Nijman. Tom showed us last year, but Walker has not shown it yet, and will not improve enough with more playing time.
3) Nijman is indeed in the doghouse, for reasons unknown.
Personally, I'm a fan of Theory #1, but concede that #3 is equally possible. It's hard for me to believe that highly dedicated professionals would get petty to the detriment of the team, but there's always things I don't know.
Bitternotsour
October 13, 2023 at 10:52 am
I remember how much we all screamed that Desmond Bishop HAD to play and we got the "he's not assignment sure" BS from Capers and McCarthy. He made plays. He made a difference every time he was on the field. He passed the eye test. Walker has not been passing the eye test. Nijman was a surprise when he was at left tackle and he got the job done. That said, who knows.
Guam
October 13, 2023 at 01:38 pm
Good summation LH. I lean into theory #3 a little more simply because less than a year ago the front office (I assume with the concurrence of the coaching staff) signed Nijman to a $4.3 million contract for one year. You don't do that if you think the guy can't play or you don't like his fit with the locker room. Walker has not played well the last two games. Nijman has proven he can play LT and he is a good run blocker. So what is preventing the change? IDK
SicSemperTyrannis
October 13, 2023 at 03:29 pm
Who are they wanting to punish like that? He's part of our current best five. Play him.
Leatherhead
October 13, 2023 at 04:18 pm
As Guam pointed out, they paid $4.3 million for him this year. I don't think you can just eat that unless you want to look like a nut. So, whatever "doghousing" that transpired, it happened at some point after that deal, I assume.
And it's pretty extreme that they would eat $4.3 million AND make our team on the field weaker out of some petty vindictiveness.
That's one of the reasons that I reject Theory #3. IMO, without my tinfoil hat or paper mask on, it makes the most sense to me that they think the team is better off playing Walker right now at tackle. Maybe Walker will get hurt, and then it'll be moot because Nijman will be playing. In any event, Walker will be here next year, and Nijman.....probably not, so they may have decided to let Walker take his lumps.
Guam
October 14, 2023 at 09:02 am
"...AND make our team on the field weaker out of some petty vindictiveness."
I don't think it is petty vindictiveness, but rather just a bad decision. I know you are respectful of professionals in their field, but I guess I have seen too many boneheaded decisions by management professionals in my field to not have a healthy sense of skepticism about decisions that just don't feel right. Clearly the Packer coaches want Walker out there rather than Nijman. Is that the right decision? Given Walker's play the last two games as well as Nijman's previous performance at LT over most of last season and there is room for serious doubt.
PhantomII
October 14, 2023 at 12:00 pm
Maybe Nijman thought he should be starting LT and get PAID a lot more than 4.3M....Maybe he thought it was B.S. that BAK never had to practice but played game day. Maybe Nijman wanted to be traded and get $$$paid since we still went with a still injured X All Pro over him and he knew he'd NEVER get paid while still young enough to play HERE. That's what I see. It would be harder to pay Nijman top LT pay while still paying BAK the CAP hit. They decided to go younger at LT once BAK went down because of this and our young LT will be playing on the cheap for several seasons. BAK did play well in the one game...he could. BAK get's his knee fixed and continues his career 3 more seasons...if he wants. Nijman gets traded at the deadline.
Leatherhead
October 13, 2023 at 08:58 am
Ken, thank you for this analysis. Not only is it spot on, but it's a welcome break from all the armchair GMs that just want to bitch about the coaches.
If we do a little better on first down, we'll convert more 3rd downs, we'll score more points, and we'll win more games. This is not brain surgery.
What part of "A work in progress" are people not getting? As far as I'm concerned, if we're .500 after Thanksgiving, we're in the hunt. If we're playing better by then, we'll be a threat to make the playoffs. If we do stagger along to a 5-12 season, there'll be changes when the season is over. Personally,I do not think that's going to happen. I think we'll improve, we'll win some games, and we'll be in the playoff hunt in December. That's all I ever ask for.
Bitternotsour
October 13, 2023 at 11:08 am
OK. So Ken Lass, sitting at his keyboard at home can pin down the correlation between bad first down offense and, well, bad offense.
"It doesn’t take a genius to figure out the correlation between poor first down performance and struggles on third down."
And yet, the armchair GM's are somehow wrong to bitch about the guy who runs the offense? I'm excited about the team. I forgive the growing pains having the youngest team in the NFL. I can't extend the same latitude to a coaching staff that doesn't give that team a fair shot at success. Matt LaFleur is failing the eye test. Play calling and execution is lacking. That's on MLF
Leatherhead
October 13, 2023 at 11:43 am
I can respect that. I don't like the results, but I don't for a second think that I know better than the coaches. When you say "...execution is lacking......", I agree with you 1000%. That's on video to watch over and over again.
Not all of it is coaches. If a guy jumps offside, is that the coach's fault? If we throw an incomplete, is that the coach's fault? If the QB throws it right at a defender for an interception, is that on the coach?
The players need to take ownership of their mistakes
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Bitternotsour
October 13, 2023 at 02:32 pm
discipline on the field begins with discipline in practice.
SicSemperTyrannis
October 13, 2023 at 03:33 pm
Exactly.
Coaches have fault, but individual mistakes by players are in the mix, too; and that's not on the coaches. Except to try to correct it at practice.
Hopefully they've been working their butt off on fundamentals, including sound blocking.
jont
October 13, 2023 at 12:20 pm
Good, thoughtful look at the issues, Ken, but I am going to venture a dissent on this part: "I wouldn’t even mind a few more gadget plays."
I can do without gadget pays until we have a line that can hold off penetration. Throw backs, end arounds, flea flickers, reverses, and all of that move the ball back and forth behind the line too long. One guys misses a block and it's over, and our guys are missing too many blocks.
I'd like to see this offense master the core offense before getting tricky.
ImaPayne
October 13, 2023 at 10:42 pm
LeFleur is a one trick pony who planned on a run run game with two backs alternating and Love being a once in a while passer throwing short to get that first down.
His whole fn scheme is screwed up without an O line in tact and no Jones. He has no plan b which is pretty much the mess they are in IMO. No plan b.