If the results of this year's annual Packer fan expectations survey are any indication, fans have moved on from January's crushing defeat at home against the San Francisco 49ers and are feeling mostly positive about the team's prospects this season.

There is, perhaps, a sense of underlying desperation. The Packers have never had a better opportunity than the 2021 season to win a championship in the Aaron Rodgers era. They had homefield advantage, the deepest and most talented roster arguably ever assembled during Rodgers' tenure, and a relatively weak NFC field with a relatively weak AFC Champion. The loss to the 49ers that ended the season was an inexcusable embarrassment, one that had many (myself included) understandably pushing for the Packers to rip off the Band-Aid and move the franchise in a new direction.

But with Aaron Rodgers back in Green Bay for a franchise record 18th season, the Packers are once again prepared to run it back under the back-to-back MVP. 

At this point, nothing about the regular season matters. The Packers have been knocking on the door for several years. There have been too many collapses, too many failures. The time has come for this team to return to the Super Bowl for the first time in 12 years.

But the past is the past. A new year is underway, and we're looking to the future. Thanks to the 659 fans who responded to this year's survey! Here's the data.

Packer fans are generally somewhere in the 8-9 scale when it comes to how good they feel about the team. The level of confidence isn't quite as sky-high as last year, but fans generally feel like the Packers are at least a contender, if not the team to beat. Very few people (bar the usual statistical outliers) have negative feelings about this team heading into 2022. So we're off to a pretty positive start.

The sweet spot for predicting the Packers' record this coming year seems to be a 12-win season. The Packers are coming off several years of 13-win seasons, an unprecedented run of regular season success. That's going to have to come to an end sooner or later, and 12 wins certainly seems reasonable. Notably, more fans expect a 13-win season (26.9 percent) than an 11-win season (17.1 percent). So again, there are generally high expectations for the performance of this team in the 2022 season.

More than half of survey respondents believe the Buffalo Bills pose the biggest matchup problem for the Packers in 2022. This is certainly a reasonable position. The Bills are widely considered a top Super Bowl contender this year and are led by the phenomenal Josh Allen, one of the most exciting young players in the game. A good 22.6 percent of respondents believed the Buccaneers posed the toughest matchup, due in large part I'm sure to recent history against that team.

In a distant third at 12.6 percent are the Los Angeles Rams, with whom the Packers haven't had much difficulty the last couple times they've played. As our own Aaron Nagler once famously said, "the Green Bay Packers play football. The Los Angeles Rams play fantasy football." Ignore the fact that the Rams went on to win the Super Bowl and the Packers... well...

 

This was a surprise to me. More than half of respondents still believe the Packers will win the Super Bowl in 2022. Despite the way the 2021 season ended, people still see this as a championship team. Maybe fans are looking ahead at the schedule with green and and gold-tinted glasses. Personally, I don't see it -- everything about this season will be harder for the Packers. The schedule, the path to a championship, the roster limitations, etc. Of course, that's not to say the Packers are not a legitimate contender, but I certainly would not predict them to win the Super Bowl this year, which I did last year.

For those who don't see the Packers winning the Super Bowl, the most common second guess is that they'll see a relatively early exit for the second year in a row in the divisional playoffs, which would be immensely disappointing as a follow-up to last season's choke job.

Lol. This speaks for itself.

Almost not worth analyzing this. But yeah, if the Packers somehow blow it, the Vikings would seem to have the best chance. Funny that people seem to feel better about the Lions than the Bears.

Very split opinions here. Definitely the closest vote of the polls. The expectation for a top-10 offense just barely edges out the expectation of one that ranks a bit more in the middle of the pack. And honestly, I could see either scenario playing out. It really depends on how the Packers' passing game performs with the current collection of pass catchers. Does Rodgers spread the ball around? Does the offense manage to scheme receivers open? Do the young guys contribute immediately? All key questions. I could see it taking some time for the offense to gel. But I wouldn't be utterly stunned if they came out and diced teams up immediately.

Fans are definitely more hyped about the defense than they've been in many years. A whopping 88.9 percent foresee a top 10 ranking for this defense. After the way it closed out the season, it's hard to disagree, especially with the emergence of Rashan Gary, the improved performance of Preston Smith, and the finds of De'Vondre Campbell and Rasul Douglas. The Packers get to see a healthy Jaire Alexander playing alongside a second-year Eric Stokes and Douglas all at the same time, plus filled some key holes and depth needs in free agency and the draft. This could be a really, really fun unit to watch. 

Bonus question for this year: do we see an Aaron Rodgers three-peat happening?

Brett Favre is the only player in NFL history to pull it off, so there would be a certain irony in Aaron Rodgers being the one to match it. The odds are certainly against Rodgers as it is an incredibly difficult feat to maintain MVP-level performance multiple years in a row. But if anyone is capable, it's Rodgers. Especially when you consider MVP is now a quarterback-only award (in essence) and there are maybe five to eight MVP-level players at the position in the NFL at the moment, Rodgers has as good a shot as any of them.

That being said, 77.1 percent of fans expect his reign at the MVP position to end this year. I see that as them smartly playing the odds.

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So those were all the multiple choice questions! Now let's move into the free responses.

Which player will be the biggest (positive) surprise in 2022?

Ranked by frequency, here are the five most-common responses to this question:

1. Romeo Doubs
2. Amari Rodgers
3. Josiah Deguara
4. Christian Watson
5. Quay Walker

Several rookies in this list, so fans seem to have positive feelings about the Packers' draft class. But, more notably, four of the five players on this list (and all the top four) are pass catchers. This would seem to indicate that despite the general national belief that the Packers have no talent at the receiving position, there is actually quite a bit of potential waiting to be unlocked.

Doubs in particular seems like a player that fans have high hopes for, and I've seen this echoed on Twitter quite a bit. Doubs will get plenty of opportunities to play his way into the rotation during preseason, with Christian Watson and Sammy Watkins opening camp on the PUP and the would-be starters Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard likely seeing limited snaps. 

The Packers could certainly use a big improvement from Deguara this season. Deguara essentially was a rookie last year after losing the majority of his first year to a torn ACL. Tight end is a notoriously difficult position to master in the NFL, with it often taking several years of development before players really "get it." This is a big year for Deguara to make a statement that he should be part of the Packers' long-term future. 

Which player not named Aaron Rodgers will be most vital to the team's success in 2022?

Here are the top responses to this question:

1. Rashan Gary
2. Aaron Jones
3. Jaire Alexander
4. David Bakhtiari
5. AJ Dillon

Very interesting list this year. Gary makes his debut on this list as being far and away the top selection. He could very well be a Defensive Player of the Year candidate if he stays healthy and continues his trajectory.

David Bakhtiari and Jaire Alexander are two players coming back from injury that could make a big difference. With Bakhtiari, it's still up in the air as to when he will actually be back; the Packers continue to be cagey regarding his status and seem to still be hedging their bets with him. Alexander should be good to go from day one, and it will be fascinating to watch how his presence adds to an already talented perimeter secondary.

Aaron Jones is a sensible player for this list, but seeing AJ Dillon here is also quite interesting. Jones and Dillon saw a pretty equal workload in 2021 and that could well continue. Tell Packer fans a couple years ago immediately after Dillon was drafted that he'd eventually be seen as one of the team's most important players and they'd probably have laughed in your face.

What is your Super Bowl matchup?

An overwhelming majority of responses saw the Packers taking on the Bills in this year's Super Bowl. But there were plenty of variations. Some of the most far-out responses included the Raiders or Cowboys making the Super Bowl. There wasn't much variance in the NFC; it was basically Packers, Rams or Bucs with a couple outliers.

What are you most looking forward to about the Packers' 2022 season?

Here's where I like to include some comments left by participants in the survey. Enjoy!

"An elite defense" - @packerstribe

"How Aaron Rodgers handles the offense without Devonte" - Steve Grover. *NOTE* Davante Adams may be gone, but the misspellings remain!

"For them to surprise everyone who counted them out." - Hail Mary Joe

"Watching the defense take that next step." - Sean-Luc Shanahan

"Rodgers retiring on a championship." - @thomaslandrson

"Always love to see guys with a chance to come into their own. Things I'm looking at on this front: Second year from Stokes, Rashan with the chance for a "Household name" kinda season, can Quay make waves in year one, can Tonyan/Deguara make something of the TE position, will Aaron Jones' usage shift even more towards pass catching, what kind of juice does Watson have as a rookie?" - @Southpaw

"Butterflies in my stomach and new helmets?" - @DawnDacquisto

"Aaron Rodgers going OFF!" - @matttrombone

"Seeing Rashan Gary toss offensive linemen around like rag dolls." - @theotherrobin19

"The defense" - @bigpackers4x

"If the defense lives up to the preseason hype." - @Michael_Klinck

"The Breakout stars, Aaron Rodgers Going off as usual, and the return of the greatest franchise in sports" - @BraydenTeeter

"

Aaron Rodgers ending his career with another Super Bowl MVP."  - @BruceIronsNFL

"Development of the rookie WRs" - @tjgenz

"Just seeing the packers play again on a Sunday night in the fall" - beeftenderloin_

"

Beating the Rams and Vikings to lead two segments of "Where Colin was WRONG!"" - BigALfromCal

"

Seeing a defense first Packers team in the Rodgers era." - ppnaps

"

Dbak back at practice" - @fallonspalgary

"

Running the damn ball!" - GBWest

"

Kenny Clark finally gets some quality help." - Electric Packerland

"

Me getting my hopes up again" - @Derpager

"

Defensive progression in year 2 with Barry and 12 having to spread the ball around and play within lafleur’s system." - benjammin

"

Sweeping the NFC North" - mrtundra

"

The cold bus ride the team will have to endure when riding in Green Bay for the victory celebration after winning the Super Bowl." - Coach T

"

If the defense lives up to their potential on paper." - @JerseyalGBP

"

Just getting back to football" - @gmeinholz

"

Advancing further into the playoffs." - @mattmamba24

"

Honestly, I despise Aaron Rodgers so much that it's hard to get excited about this team. They'll choke when favored in the NFC playoffs again and 12 will blame anyone else but the guy in the mirror." - Bearmeat

"

Trip to London with my wife!" - markgfohey

"

Watching Aaron Rodgers light it up against Chicago." - @palmtrees0rbust

"

Watching the young Wide Receivers develop and seeing who will emerge as the most productive." - GreenBaySmacker

"

Hopefully going to a few games and soaking in the experience knowing how great of a privilege it is to not only go to a game, but go to a game in potentially AR12’s penultimate season" - @skisingh_

"

Beating the bears - never gets old" - @erikphelps

"

Lots of Pony Personnel." - HE Soder

"

Locker room interviews and teammates roasting each other" - @kevinklein1217

"

I want to finally see a defense that is one of the most feared in the NFL. May not approach 85 Bears. But the comparisons will ring out all season. I hope." - @Multiversical

 

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Big thank you to EVERYONE who contributed in this year's survey! On we go to the new season. Go pack go!