Packers at Giants: Gameday Preview - 2023 Week 14
The Packers have played up to the level of their competition during their win streak. Can they avoid playing down to their competition against the floundering Giants in prime time?
By BruceIrons
The last time the Packers played the Giants, they went to London, Aaron Rodgers broke his thumb, Josiah Deguara got a safety, and the Packers lost 27-22, sending the season into a tailspin they never fully recovered from.
This time, maybe a win propels their season to the next level.
WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL
Dexter Lawrence and A'Shawn Robinson can be really disruptive up front for the Giants and Kayvon Thibodeaux is already a star.
But outside of that, the Giants don't have much to cling to on defense.
Making matters worse for New York, Lawrence (who is in the same tier of disruptive interior presence as Aaron Donald and Chris Jones) is quesionable to play with a hamstring injury. On a prime time home game, I'm betting he plays and shows very little signs of injury.
But even with Lawrence at full strength, the Giants are in the bottom quarter of the league in both points allowed and yards allowed and have an terrible run defense to go with a poor pass defense. They have a couple pieces, but the whole is overall underwhelming.
The Packers should be able to keep doing what they've been doing and impose their will.
Christian Watson has the week off to rest his hamstring, but the Packers can just let Jordan Love run the passing game just the way he has. Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft have really come on in replacement roles, Jayden Reed has flashed as a rookie, and Romeo Doubs has consistently been a contested catch demon. The Packers can spread the ball around against a mediocre Giants secondary.
New York's defense can boast an impressive 9 players with an interception, but none of them have more than 2 and the bulk of them have come from bad passes more than highlight reel plays. Jordan Love has been getting better and better with his ball placement throughout the season and if he can avoid turning the ball over, the Giants are gonna have a hard time stopping this offense.
Aaron Jones is out for tonight as the Packers continue to rest him, as well. There are no gimmies in this league, but playing the odds, the Packers have a good shot tonight even without Jones, who clearly needs more recovery time. AJ Dillon has proven good enough to win with and the Packers can even work in new running back Kenyan Drake.
The Giants defense has managed 9 takeaways in their 2 game win streak. Many of them were unforced errors. The Packers should be able to just play within themselves, do what they know they can do, and avoid getting sloppy with the ball, and pull out a winning performance.
WHEN THE PACKERS ARE ON DEFENSE
Don't look now but Joe Barry is almost as hot as Jordan Love!
Now the Packers face the Giants, who have the worst offense in the league (32nd in yards, 31st in points) and are starting 3rd string quarterback Tommy DeVito.
They've been bad.
But, like I said, there are no gimmies in this league.
DeVito has actually played pretty good this year, especially when he gets time in the pocket. He has a quarterback rating of 92.4 and he's led them to back to back victories.
However, DeVito has faltered under pressure and the Giants are giving up more sacks than any other team by a wide margin.
Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Lukas Van Ness, and Karl Brooks have proven to be a highly disruptive pass rush rotation. None of them has to overexert themselves and they can all stay fresh and feast on a poor pass blocking unit tonight.
They won't have to sell out on the pass rush to hit home, nor should they because they will need to respect the rush.
Saquon Barkley is still a premium talent at running back. The last time he played the Packers, he ran for over 5 yards per carry.
Stopping Barkley is job one agianst the Giants. Given New York's deficiencies at quarterback and offensive line, along with the lack of star power at wide receiver (which is a good thing since Jaire Alexander is out again), a lot of teams have been able to accomplish job one against the Giants. Last week, the Patriots contained him to 46 yards on 12 carries and held the Giants to 10 points.
If the Packers can simply stop Barkley from taking over the game, and keep the intensity up on the pass rush, they should be able to keep this offense under control.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The Giants aren't good.
Six of their losses have been by more than 14 points, and it didn't matter which of their three starting quarterbacks played.
The only teams they've beat, or even stayed close to, have been doormats.
The Packer should win handily... and that makes this a dangerous game.
A team this young on a big win streak against top teams can definitely start feeling themselves and fall into a trap game.
But I don't see that happening tonight.
Jordan Love's confidence, the team's confidence in themselves, and whatever the hell Joe Barry is doing with this defense, should propel the team to another victory and really get the playoff talk heating up.
Packers 27, Giants 13
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Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.
Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.
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Comments (23)
NickPerry
December 11, 2023 at 06:16 am
"Given New York's deficiencies at quarterback and offensive line, along with the lack of star power at wide receiver (which is a good thing since Jaire Alexander is out again)"
I haven't checked all the stats and may be talking out my butt, but hasn't the Packers Defense been playing better since Alexander has been OUT? Don't get me wrong I honestly believe the Packers are a better defense with Alexander than without. But is ANYONE else starting to think the Packers should have traded Alexander instead of Douglas?
I can't recall where I saw it (maybe one of those stupid Top 100 ranking shows), but there was a video of Alexander suggesting he himself was the best player in the NFL.
Ummm...At this point I'd settle for available.
jont
December 11, 2023 at 08:29 am
I take your point, but Alexander is a quality player, and the team is better with him. I just don't see a cause and effect between him sitting and better defensive play.
Other defensive players are playing better than earlier in the season. Especially up front:
The defense starts up front.
"... the Packers defense recorded three red zone sacks against Mahomes and Goff was under duress on a whopping 52 percent of his dropbacks, according to PFF, with Justin Herbert facing pressure on almost 40 percent of his snaps. For some context around those percentages, the top 10 most pressured quarterbacks in football this season have all been under pressure at least 40 percent of the time.
"... the interior is where the Packers have seen the greatest pass rush presence during that span, with Kenny Clark, Karl Brooks, and Devonte Wyatt all ranking in the top 30 out of 88 eligible defensive linemen in pass-rush win rate. Clark also ranks second in total pressures.
"The Packers defense has gone from ranking in the bottom third of the league in pressure rate to currently sitting at 11th overall."
https://sports.yahoo.com/packers-pass-rush-opportunity-control-191350290...
T7Steve
December 11, 2023 at 06:58 am
I was coming into this week with a lot of confidence due to the last couple wins.
Now the Lions have been decimated by the BEARS??? Almost twice. The Chiefs were handled by a fairly good but iffy 500 Bills.
Maybe those wins don't mean as much now, but maybe it means that the Packers are beating teams they're supposed to.
Tonight, is just another evaluation opportunity and learning experience for the youngsters. It's another chance to gage the coaching progress against coaching that showed them lacking a season ago,
Don't let them bully us this season like they did last time. Embarrassing.
Coldworld
December 11, 2023 at 07:43 am
The Chiefs have some issues. Despite the big names, they had before they played us and they showed up then and this weekend. Similarly Detroit, which is heavily dependent on its OL and that has faltered and with it their O. That is showing up their D when forced to rely on it.
Detroit is a caution that has relevance to Barry and our D. No, it hasn’t been better statistically. Our yards given up per carry has actually steadily risen. What has changed is that we’ve been playing to hold a lead and have had less time in the field. That’s allowed us to be more aggressive in coverage in the back field.
The real difference is we have been getting key sacks at critical moments and winning the turnover battle. We’ve still conceded plenty of passing yards. That’s not a recipe that tends to be successfully consistently and particularly if not ahead early.
We’ve been winning by getting ahead. If the O can keep doing that then the D maybe OK, but If we don’t score, nothing the D done while we were winning suggests it can make up for that, except the sacks and pressure from the OLBs and DL. Fortunately, New York has been historically generous in giving up sacks, so in this game there is cause for optimism.
SicSemperTyrannis
December 11, 2023 at 10:47 am
Exactly!
JB has one trick, and "get ahead" is not a strategy. He's also been gifted talented pass rushers, and sometimes doesn't prevent their success. If NY were just to stick to the run tonight, JB would have to do something different. Hopefully they go for an air raid which results in turnovers.
Leatherhead
December 11, 2023 at 12:44 pm
The Giants compare defensively. That's mostly a push. But the Giants are 31st in points scored, meaning that a good defense should hold them under 20. Our offense has surged to 19th in points (yeah, that's still low average) and hit for 23 or more in our last 3 games.
If we don't help them by turning the ball over, the Packers will score over 20, and the Giants will not. It might not be pretty, but a road win in a night game is big.
After tonight, only four more games. The Lions would have to choke it up twice for us to have a shot at the division title. The Cowboy game would be one....but Denver, Minnesota, and Minnesota need to win one, too.
SicSemperTyrannis
December 11, 2023 at 10:48 am
Not sinking to the Giants' level would be AGNFB.
Hang 70 points on them! Our offense needs the reps :)
Packerpasty
December 11, 2023 at 12:05 pm
Cant lose to this crappy Giants team...lose tonight and its back to square one...
ricky
December 11, 2023 at 10:52 am
Joe Barry has once again shown that if his back is against the wall, the fire under him is hot enough, and it is later in the season, he can call competent defenses. Of course, it helps that the DL is developing into a real weapon, the LBers are faster and more instinctive, and the DB's are able to cover adequately. In short, given a defense stacked with high draft picks, Barry has shown he can be decent. But once the heat is turned down, once he gets an extension, he'll revert to his instincts. Which is why he is, year after year, being forced to change his ways toward the end of the season. Rinse and repeat, or pull the plug? Let's see who is available as DC candidates, open up the purse strings, and make the defense something to be feared.
SicSemperTyrannis
December 11, 2023 at 08:18 pm
Flores has turned around the Viqueens defense, which would work even better with our roster. I haven't had a chance to analyze what Fangio is doing with Miami, but it seems to be working.
We don't know that either would have subjected themselves to MM's silos here, but they gotta try for an upgrade. At several other coaching positions, too.
Ray-66
December 11, 2023 at 12:58 pm
You need to control these popups on this site. I could not read this article. The popups made it impossible. This is the worst site I frequent with all the ads in the way.
Since'75
December 11, 2023 at 06:44 pm
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There are options Ray.
LeotisHarris
December 11, 2023 at 06:48 pm
Psst, Ray,
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SicSemperTyrannis
December 11, 2023 at 08:19 pm
Are you on the app or the website?
Brave browser, I've never had an issue.
porupack
December 11, 2023 at 01:10 pm
Glad you repeated it. "No Gimmes" in this league. How many times did the packers allow an opponent a career best game, and/or a no-name player have a breakout day. All the stuff on paper is nice. Quite nice. Very nice. So nice we are lulled into an expected win. Nice article.
exbody
December 11, 2023 at 02:47 pm
I think most packer fans are looking at this game tonite with the same mindset
On paper it does look like a mismatch. A poor Giants defense, starting a 3rd string QB, most sacks given up .....but there's that little part of you that is thinking that maybe they play down to the level of the competition because the Packers are such a young team.
It's as of we're looking for something to be the reason why they could lose.
It looks like it's going to be pretty windy throughout the game so maybe the wind could be an issue, especially in the kicking game. But this Packer team seems to be playing they're best football at the right time. Matt LaFluer has been tremendous of late with the play calling and the defense has played really good football. J Love has taken huge steps and it shows in his confidence and accuracy. A win tonight will vault the Packers to above .500 and I believe their impressive play continues to set up a realistic shot at running the table.
GO PACK GO!!
26-17
exbody
December 11, 2023 at 02:51 pm
I think most packer fans are looking at this game tonite with the same mindset
On paper it does look like a mismatch. A poor Giants defense, starting a 3rd string QB, most sacks given up .....but there's that little part of you that is thinking that maybe they play down to the level of the competition because the Packers are such a young team.
It's as of we're looking for something to be the reason why they could lose.
It looks like it's going to be pretty windy throughout the game so maybe the wind could be an issue, especially in the kicking game. But this Packer team seems to be playing they're best football at the right time. Matt LaFleur has been tremendous of late with the play calling and the defense has played really good football. J Love has taken huge steps and it shows in his confidence and accuracy. A win tonight will vault the Packers to above .500 and I believe their impressive play continues to set up a realistic shot at running the table.
GO PACK GO!!
26-17
Since'75
December 11, 2023 at 06:41 pm
The Giants are bad, plain and simple.
I'm not going to waste mine, or anyone else's time on the reasons why.
If everything goes as they should, the Packers should roll by 14-17 points.
Since'75
December 11, 2023 at 07:43 pm
Did i mention how bad the Giants are?
Holy S...
SinceLombardi
December 11, 2023 at 09:49 pm
This game was over the second Nixon fumbled that punt.
This is also two years in a row that MLFs team has blown an early lead, been out played and out hustled by Daboll and Martindale.
tobinrote
December 11, 2023 at 10:26 pm
they made de vito look like the second coming of michael vick or roger staubauh or lamar jackson. but love was accurate on maybe two or three passes the whole game. he is not the answer
SinceLombardi
December 11, 2023 at 10:38 pm
Neither is MLF, Joe Fucking Barry or Rich Bisaccia. This team has some talent and this staff just isn’t that great. I can’t believe how many yards we lost on end around plays. And that stupid ass kept calling it.
But even with all that , Keisean Nixon almost single handed lost this game. He is a liability on special teams. Yeah he caught a floater from Mahomes last week but he can’t tackle, can’t return kicks, can’t cover and he appears to be a bit stupid to say the least.
This was another disgusting loss that this franchise seems to be getting known for.
If they think that all of a sudden they will be winners next year , just because of some experience they are mistaken.
Detroit & KC are stumbling, the Chargers suck. And the Packers aren’t much better. Those wins ARE tainted .. because the looked like shit against a very flawed NYG team.
The Giants tried to give the game to the packers and they couldn’t take it.. BTW, where was Gary and the great pass rush against a joke of a o line?
navydisposaleer
December 11, 2023 at 10:43 pm
Post game. To me, the Packer organization is filled with just plain average talent and coaches. Since that happened, it's a very long way to dig yourself out of a self created hole. The Giants game is an example of allowing for a Packer loss. LaFleur has the world's worst defensive coach known to mankind and he has this Berry guy running the team into the ground. There's no excuse for letting the Giants QB throw passes with no pressure. Rushing 4 or 5, won't cut the mustard. In the last few seconds of the game, Giants moved from nowhere to a FG to win. That stinks. Well, the whole team smelled, not just the D. Love, average...who cares what he did in the past 4 games. He is just plain average and during this Giant game he was running on raw nerves. Packers are out of the playoffs...period.