Opponent by the Numbers: Bye Week Self-Scouting

A comprehensive look in the mirror for the Packers after six weeks.

Bye weeks are interesting times for NFL teams. Most fans would probably love for the open date to be filled with a double dose of game-planning and practicing, with players and coaches taking advantage of a rare break in the season to improve.

The truth is, however, much of the time off is spent on rest and recuperation, and that’s likely even more helpful. In addition to those listed explicitly on the injury report, most players carry some sort of wear and tear after six straight weeks of games, and the human mind needs a break every so often. The bye week can be an extremely valuable pressure release valve from a rigorous routine.

But coaching staffs usually make time for a few extra projects, which typically includes a self-scouting period. It’s an opportunity to take an in-depth look at exactly what has gone well and what areas have presented challenges. At some point this week, Mike McCarthy and Co. will study the Packers’ own tendencies, strengths and weakness to gear up for the rest of the season.

Football teams are complex and evolving organisms, so there’s a chance evaluations have changed quite a bit in some areas since training camp. In other cases, perhaps injuries or personnel additions have altered expectations. In any case, the open date is the perfect opportunity to assess what the 2018 Packers actually are, in contrast to what we thought they might be.

13.1%

Just about every complaint possible about the Packers’ offense has been voiced over the last six weeks, yet Green Bay ranks sixth in the NFL in offensive DVOA at 13.1 percent above average, according to Football Outsiders. For those unfamiliar with DVOA, it measures offensive success in the context of down-and-distance.

The issues fans have complained about have covered just about every aspect of offensive football. The play-calling stinks. Aaron Rodgers holds the ball too long. The offensive line can’t protect. Wide receivers keep dropping the ball. Why don’t they throw to Jimmy Graham? They use the wrong running backs. Why not utilize more tight ends? Some of these perceptions are just plain wrong (more on this later), and others are legitimate. Despite it all, however, there are only five teams in the league better at moving the ball. Context is everything.

72.4%

This is the percentage of the Packers’ run plays that are either inside zone or outside zone concepts, according to STATS, LLC. While zone is the most popular run concept in the NFL, this number is among the highest in the league, indicating a lack of diversity (and possibly creativity) in the running game for the Packers. The Chiefs, by contrast, run basic zone concepts 43 percent of the time, and the Patriots are at just 31.5 percent.

Ryan Grant mentioned during Monday night’s Watch Party with Aaron Nagler how little the Packers worked on the running game, compared to his time under Kyle Shanahan, and these numbers support that notion.

In defense of McCarthy, there’s no way to know how many of these calls are audibles or checks made by Aaron Rodgers at the line. Plus, a simple running game doesn’t equate to an ineffective one. The potent Rams have an even smaller menu of run concepts, running basic zone about 79 percent of the time.

While the Packers’ personnel doesn’t lend itself to man-based blocking schemes like powers, counters and traps, I wouldn’t mind seeing just a tiny bit more diversity in the running game going forward. We saw some great success with a tackle-lead concept against the Niners Monday night, utilizing David Bakhtiari’s athleticism as a puller, and hopefully those wrinkles continue to come.

91.2

The Packers have the best pass blocking in the league with a 91.2 rating, according to Pro Football Focus. Both Bakhtiari and center Corey Linsley are elite pass protectors, which helps tremendously. And while fans have lamented the running back usage so far, I’m starting to warm up to a suggestion made on Packer Transplants this week: Be who you are.

With an elite quarterback, the top protection in pro football and a deep receiving corps infused with young talent, maybe the Packers should just embrace the high-volume passing game. Since “helping Aaron Rodgers” seems to only be a half-measure, maybe just let Rodgers help himself all game.

0.39%

Aaron Rodgers is so incomprehensibly good, and we’re all spoiled. Rodgers, while playing through a serious knee injury, has thrown one interception in 254 attempts, for an interception rate of less than half of one percent. Only pick-less Drew Brees has a better rate this year, and he’s thrown 64 fewer passes than Rodgers.

It’s totally fair to say that Rodgers can hold the ball too long, that he occasionally misses open receivers or that he plays favorites with his targets. But he simply never throws it to the other team, and the Packers are in just about every game because of it. Even MVP candidates Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff and Tom Brady are about five times as likely to throw an interception on any given pass attempt.

The truth is that the Packers are a couple red zone throws and catches away from being a terrifying offense with Rodgers right in the MVP hunt.

4.94

The Packers’ run defense so far this year has been…bad? And oddly enough, it’s been the defensive line that’s let runners pick up consistent yardage. Adjusted line yards, another Football Outsiders statistic, tries to isolate running success due to offensive and defensive line play from that of the running back in the open field. Green Bay is giving up 4.94 adjusted line yards per attempt, 27th in the league.

Even worse is the fact that the Packers are also 30th in stuffing run plays for no gain or a loss, and they’re dead-last in stopping short-yardage and goal-to-go run plays. The defense is about average at preventing second-level and open field yardage, so it’s unfair to blame this weakness on the linebackers and safeties. Yet Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels and Dean Lowry all seem to be having good seasons individually. So, what gives in this paradox?

It could be that defensive coordinator Mike Pettine has to try so hard to generate a pass rush with scheme that he’s essentially conceding some run defense on most downs. No scheme can stop everything equally well, and this looks like it may be a sacrifice Pettine is willing to make, and in a league led by incendiary passing attacks, it’s hard to blame him for thinking coverage-first.

80.5

The Packers are good in coverage. You heard me. With a Pro Football Focus rating of 80.5, Green Bay has the fifth-best coverage defense in the NFL.

Most fans don’t have time to watch the coaches’ film to see successful coverage, so their only impressions are of when players get beat badly. It’s true that Davon House and Kentrell Brice have had struggles and given up big plays, but so many players—Blake Martinez, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Jermaine Whitehead, Jaire Alexander, Kevin King and Josh Jackson—are having good seasons covering receivers.

With an outside pass rush that simply hasn’t been any good so far, excellent downfield coverage is the only reason that the Packers are top-10 in the NFL with 18 sacks. Even moderate improvements from Clay Matthews, Nick Perry and Reggie Gilbert could give the Packers enough of a defense to make a run in the playoffs.

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Matt Kelley is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter via @hustleandheart1

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Comments (13)

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Packer Dave's picture

October 19, 2018 at 06:02 pm

Does Nick Perry still play for the team? Seriously.

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Coldworld's picture

October 19, 2018 at 06:15 pm

He is now our “heavy package box safety” and notched up three passes defensed last game.

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Jordan's picture

October 21, 2018 at 09:10 am

He saved Clay Matthews with a strip sack.

If you want to understand why the Packers are 3-2-1, look no further than #12 and the offense. Seriously.

Google search "NFL Game Pass"

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Coldworld's picture

October 19, 2018 at 06:13 pm

“A couple of red zone passes away from being a terrifying offense.” We have had a couple of terrible calls to remove those from the record.

We have had the same on Defense.

The truth is, that we played a stinker in Detroit. I note that the Patriots have an equally terrible outing in their record.

What we have not done is play a complete game on O or D. We may yet settle into that groove. I hope that we do, but quite honestly we all (myself included) have been spoiled by past performances and soured by past near misses.

This is a parity league and we have had a lot of turnover (thankfully) since last season. Give it time before throwing in the towel.

After watching a second time, I was impressed with Kyle Shanahan’s game plan in the last game. It was an infrequent opponent producing a game plan different from their previous outings and well calculated to avoid our strengths. I was also impressed with how we adjusted on D and also readjusted on O after the 49ers adjusted to our offense.

To me that shows positively for the coaches and players and for us eventually getting to be a good team this year (and a better one next year).

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NJMagic's picture

October 19, 2018 at 07:04 pm

Two words. Safety.

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THE PACKERS PROPHET's picture

October 19, 2018 at 08:12 pm

The NFC north belongs to the Green Bay Packers. Period. The Bears had some juice the first half of week 1, especially against our backup quarterback. During that halftime the media world was crowning the Bears as back, and Khalil Mack as the greatest player in history. The wind in that sail quickly wavered as number 12 took the field and erased a 20 point fourth quarter deficit. And this past week the Bears got Jordan-shrugged by Brock Osweiller. The Bears are done. THE BEARS STILL SUCK !!!

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SoCalJim's picture

October 19, 2018 at 09:36 pm

No, the NFC North doesn’t “belong” to the Packers. The team needs to get its act together and go out an earn the Div. title.

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SJ EC's picture

October 19, 2018 at 11:21 pm

Definitely sounds like we have all the pieces - statistically, at least

Hopefully Mike and Co. do some soul searching this week and are able to bring the pieces together to make a solid run towards to the post-season.

Based on the first half of the ’9ers game, I think he IS capable of some offensive creativity.

The coming stretch will show us what we’re REALLY made of!

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freddisch's picture

October 20, 2018 at 07:08 am

Stats are interesting,but it’s the number of wins that actually count. Based on that the Packers have a long way to go

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

October 20, 2018 at 12:39 pm

This has been a nice series of articles, Mr. Kelly. You've managed so far in most weeks to find and highlight interesting stats.

13.1 is a good DVOA. It was 16.6 in 2016 (4th), 2.2% (11th) in 2015, and 24.7% (1st) in 2014. Passing DVOA is 22.5 (11th) and it was 31.3 in 2016 (7th), 13.8 (16th) in 2015, and 46.5 (2nd) in 2014. There is a whole order of magnitude difference in the passing DVOA between the good years and the eke into the playoff years.

I might note that our passing DVOA is 11th and our rushing DVOA is 4th this season. I could argue that more running is reasonable. I mean, when you're the 4th best at something, perhaps you should do it more.

GB is 15th in points scored and 15th in points allowed. That has translated to 3-2-1. GB is 22nd in red zone efficiency at 50%. It was 61.1% in 2017. It was 9th at 64.47% in 2016, 17th at 55% in 2015, and 11th in 2014 at 57.7%. It was 68.5% in 2012 and 65.2% in 2011. Really, looks like anything over about 57 or 58% generally is top 10.

We have had 22 trips inside the red zone. That is 3.6 chances per game (12th in the NFL). If one eliminates the SF game, we've been averaging 3.2 chances (about 18th). 2017: 2.6. 2016: 4.0. 2015: 3.3. 2014: 3.9. 2013: 4.1. 2012: 3.0. 2011: 4.1.

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ILPackerBacker's picture

October 20, 2018 at 02:11 pm

Anyone who watched Randall in any game he played knew the packer pass defense would improve by just getting rid of him. And a side benefit is not having to read crap from know nothings parroting his skill.

Yet we also got really good rookies instead of the twins wastes of snap Randal and rollins. Of course the pass defense is better. We all knew that going in. Anyone who watches could, should, does see it

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Jordan's picture

October 21, 2018 at 02:37 am

The Packers are a good team. But lets focus on the stats that matter.

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Why is a team with a future hall of fame QB (Rodgers) only averaging 24.7 ppg?

Brees is averaging 36 (Brees is 39 years old)

Brady is averaging 29.3 (Brady is 41 years old)

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ILPackerBacker's picture

October 22, 2018 at 11:01 am

Who said "context is everything"?

Maybe that bright bulb could compare context in stats between a close game and blow out where one team backs off on D to protect a big lead.

CONTEXT? You can't handle the context!

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