NFL Picks: Week Eight
Aaron Nagler’s picks for Week Eight of the 2011 NFL Season.
By PackerAaron
Last Week: 10-3
Season: 74-31
New Orleans at St. Louis
For the second week in a row, the Saints face a backup quarterback who has zero chance. I mean zero. chance. New Orleans in another romp.
Miami at New York Giants
Brandon Marshall doesn't want the media to say the Giants "didn't take us seriously" when the Dolphins win. Oh, they don't Brandon. And neither does anyone else. New York in a laugher.
Jacksonville at Houston
I picked the Jags as a classic home dog on Monday night last week - and they came through for me. Their reward? To be waxed by the Texans. Jacksonville's defense is legit and Houston looks to be without the services of Andre Johnson again - but the Texans have too much firepower at home for the poo-gun Jaguars offense to keep up.
Arizona at Baltimore
Joe Flacco did his best Kyle Boller impression last Monday night and the Ravens offense appeared to take a giant step backwards. So its a perfect time for Baltimore to run into a deflated Cardinals team. Arizona can't stop anyone and they have trouble scoring. Not exactly a recipe for success.
Minnesota at Carolina
The Vikings seem to have found a quarterback in Christian Ponder. Unfortunately for Vikings fans the Panthers are a bit more certain on that front. Cam Newton is playing out-of-his-mind well for a rookie. Our friend Adam Caplan says he's playing the quarterback position better than anyone in the league not names Rodgers, Brady or Brees. Carolina gets its third win of the season.
Indianapolis at Tennessee
The Titans did not show up last week. The Colts have barely showed up all year. After that beatdown at the hands of the Saints, the Colts may not show up again for the rest of the year. Tennessee takes it.
Detroit at Denver
Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Detroit.
Washington at Buffalo
Fresh off signing a contract extension, Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will go to work against a tough Redskins defense. Washington's defense is not half bad - it's offense is twice as bad. I'm not sure of the math on that one, but I am sure that Buffalo wins.
Cincinnati at Seattle
Seattle is a different team at home and with Travaris Jackson at quarterback. (Did I really just type that?) But the Ginger Wolverine, Andy Dalton, is playing well and Cincinnati has quietly put together a pretty formidable defense. The Bengals get the road win.
New England at Pittsburgh
Tom Brady and the Patriots have owned the Steelers in this matchup for as long as Brady has been under center. It hasn't mattered where they play or what time of year they meet. The Steelers and their fans will be amped for this game, but New England's uptempo, spread offense will be too much for the Steelers defense too handle.
Cleveland at San Francisco
Lost in the media overload of Handshake Gate is the fact that Jim Harbaugh is doing a fantastic coaching job, one of the best in the NFL this season, with his 49ers team. The Browns may have set offensive football back by 20 years with their two field goal win over the Seahwaks, but they are playing better than that score indicates. That said, they have little chance in San Francisco.
Dallas at Philadelphia
The Eagles are coming off a bye week where they have been searching for answers on the defensive side of the ball. Unless they have performed heart transplants on their linebackers and secondary, the atrocious tackling will no doubt continue. Their M.O. for the remainder of the year will need to be - outscore everyone. The problem? Quarterback Michael Vick turning the ball over trying to do too much.
The Cowboys aren't without their own problems. But Dallas will be able to run the ball, control the clock and score enough to win.
San Diego at Kansas City
What is wrong with Philip Rivers? He swears he's healthy. But he looks like a shadow of the quarterback that played some of the best ball in the league in 2010. On the road in Arrowhead against a surging Chiefs team is not the place to get yourself right. Kansas City in an upset.
Byes: Falcons, Bears, Packers, Jets, Raiders, Buccaneers
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Comments (17)
October 29, 2011 at 11:32 am
I would think that a "poo-gun" would be particularly effective, perhaps devastatingly so. Did you mean "pea-gun"? =)
PackerAaron
October 29, 2011 at 12:54 pm
I actually meant "pop-gun" - but left "poo-gun" in because it's a much more accurate portrayal of the Jaguars on offense. ;)
October 29, 2011 at 04:45 pm
LOL!
October 29, 2011 at 11:50 am
The Detroit-Denver matchup could be very close. Detroit is not an offensive beast and that defense might be gasping for air after chasing Tebow around. Hope Denver wins this one giving the Pack a 3 game lead in the loss column for the division.
I am a little worried about home field in the playoffs with San Francisco and 1 loss and that mostly junior varsity schedule they have the rest of the year.
October 29, 2011 at 02:29 pm
Denver is just awful. In fact, there are A LOT of teams that are just awful. Denver, Miami, St Louis, Indianapolis, Seattle, Arizona, Cleveland... All could contend with the 2008 Lions.
I don't remember quite as much crappy teams like this year. Another reason the Packers are the big favorites, because everyone else just sucks. Just to illustrate, Cincy, Detroit, Buffalo and San Francisco are all above .600, and I don't believe these teams have 1 playoff win combined in this century.
October 29, 2011 at 11:59 pm
"I don’t remember quite as much crappy teams like this year."
Going into last Sunday I read somewhere that there were either the most or 2nd most teams over .500 after 6 weeks than any time since the merger (something like 20 or 22) which would make the case that there are mostly good/competitive teams. I will agree though that the other 10 or 12 are god damn awful to watch. Really.
October 30, 2011 at 10:55 am
More teams over .500 doesn't necessarily mean that there's more competition. It can mean a lot of things with different schedules.
It can also mean that there are so many crappy teams that a lot of other teams can easily reach above .500...
October 29, 2011 at 11:55 pm
Couple things:
I expect the Detroit/Denver game to be close as well. Wouldn't be surprised if Denver won it actually, just wouldn't bet on it.
As for Home-field....
I am looking at the 9'ers schedule now, they will be doing well to win 11, and they don't scare me in the least (The winner of the NFC West is like being crowned the skinniest fat chick, or the smartest retard). They WILL LOSE to:
Giants
Ravens
Pittsburgh
That's 4 losses
There are also a few that could go either way such as:
@ Redskins
@ Zona
@ Seattle
I know Zona and hawks don't scare anybody, but they are divisional foes... records out the window.
If by some cosmic stroke of comedy we would be the #2 seed and have to play anywhere... the 9'ers would be my choice. Seriously, I don't want to see the Saints, especially at their house, really don't want to see Philly either... or hell, even duh bares, but the 9'ers, I would welcome with open arms. But don't fret... the #1 seed will be locked up after week 15, you heard it here 1st.
GBP 4 LIFE
October 30, 2011 at 06:30 pm
Told you Denver would play Detroit tough!
October 29, 2011 at 12:06 pm
"Washington's defense is not half bad - it's offense is twice as bad. I'm not sure of the math on that one"
Aaron, I did the math. one-half times two = Washington has one bad offense ;)
PackerAaron
October 29, 2011 at 12:52 pm
Perfect - now put that into a Venn Diagram and we're all set. :)
October 29, 2011 at 11:35 pm
Where we differ... I have:
Pittsburgh (Not a wise choice with the Hoodie having a bye).
Philly (Hope I'm wrong as I'm starting Romo in one of my leagues).
San Diego (not buying into the Chiefs 3 game streak, but Rivers sucks. Trust me, he's throwing to Jackson who I counted on in the 3rd and has done very little).
Aside from that your picks are good. 8-)
GBP 4 LIFE
October 30, 2011 at 02:22 pm
NO is getting destroyed.
PackerAaron
October 30, 2011 at 02:58 pm
Yep. I love being proven wrong in this case. :)
October 30, 2011 at 06:31 pm
AMEN! That was sweet to watch. Best part, nobody in my office pool picked the Rams (for good reason)... no harm, no foul!
October 30, 2011 at 05:48 pm
The Steelers are daring Tom Brady to throw deep. They're playing single high all day long and covering all the short plays. Without a running game, NE is really struggling. Brady is simply not accurate enough throwing farther than 20 yards, and his receivers can't get enough separation in deep patherns.
There's your blueprint for beating the Patriots. Stop the run and play aggressive coverage, re-directing their routes.
Also, pathetic defense.
October 30, 2011 at 10:40 pm
Hey Aaron,
Wanted to get your take on this Christl GBPG article that just came out. It seems he was not at all a fan of "Green Bay: A City and it's Team". I listened to the transplants episode a couple weeks back when you interviewed the author and praised the book. I thought Christl was a bit harsh, but if the book got it's facts wrong, then I'm not so sure what to think.
http://packersnews.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20111030/PKR07/11103...