Hello Wisconsin: The Playoff Race Has Begun
With 10 games down, the real race is on.
By TimBackes
By the time the league has played 10 games, it’s generally pretty safe to assume who are going to be the playoff contenders and who should begin prepping their 2025 draft boards.
The Green Bay Packers enter this crucial portion of their season in a much different position than they were a year ago, when they only had the faintest glimmer of playoff hopes. This year they are at 7-3, and while they have yet to fire on all cylinders, they have proven they will be a legitimate playoff candidate right in the thick of the race come January. Their close call over Chicago prevented them from falling to a tragic 0-3 within the division while also gave them a bit of cushion in the wild card race.
I say “wild card race” because at this point it seems to be a given that the Lions, barring some sort of insane collapse, are going to win the NFC North. They're just a significantly better team than the Vikings, and currently have two games and a tiebreaker on the Packers With the Vikings at 8-2, the Packers right now would be the 6th seed, with the Washington Commanders rounding things out in the 7th. After them, it’s a couple games back for a handful of 5-5 teams from the NFC West.
There would have to be some fairly significant changes over the final month and a half of the season for the playoffs to not feature the Eagles, Lions, Vikings, Packers, and Commanders; the NFC West is a tossup, and the NFC South is still a bit close to call. But that’s why they play the games; we’ve seen way crazier collapses and comebacks before.
The Packers already have a tiebreaking win over both the Rams and the Cardinals, should that somehow come into play. They can do more to jockey for position by beating the 49ers this weekend at Lambeau Field. The 49ers have been the boogeyman for the Packers since 2012, and a victory over them this weekend would not only solidify the Packers’ standing, but also deal a significant blow to the Niners’ own hopes, which are only being kept alive due to the general mediocrity of their division.
The Packers are entering a critical stretch in which they will play 3 games in 12 days before enjoying a short mini bye. They get the 49ers at home on Sunday, the Dolphins at home on Thanksgiving NIght, and then go to Detroit the following Thursday before a short break leading into a road primetime trip to Seattle. Three of those four games are against NFC teams in the thick of the playoff hunt.
We’re going to learn a lot about this team over this coming stretch. But one thing is for sure: nothing is set in stone. There’s a significant amount of evolution that can occur in a team between November and January. All it takes is getting hot at the right time.
It’s going to be exciting to watch the pieces start to come into place.
Wisconsin Beer of the Week
I love a good black IPA (also referred to as a Cascadian Dark Ale), so when I saw Lakefront Brewery had released one for the first time in recent memory, I had to snag it.
Lakefront used to make this beer called IBA: Imperial Black Ale. This was back in the early- to mid-2010s, when the black IPA was seemingly a bit more common of a style than it is these days. Milwaukee Brewing Company had one as well at the time (Black Iron), and other breweries were experimenting with the style as well.
The Black IPA basically features the hoppiness of a standard IPA combined with the dark roasted malts you’d see from a black ale or porter. It’s a combination that works better than one would expect.
With the rise of the New England/Hazy IPA around 2016, the Black IPA started to fall out of popularity, as people started to more prefer the sweeter styles of IPAs over the more bitter ones. These days, it’s gotten harder and harder to find more traditional styles of IPAs.
But the Black IPA is starting to see a resurgence in popularity, so this entry from Lakefront isn’t all that surprising. Black Bird is a 6.8% ABV treat that comes in at 40 IBU. Here’s how the brewery describes it:
“The hoppy aromas ready the palate for an immediate bitterness. Instead, the sweet, caramely crystal malts blitz through, followed by citrus and tropical fruit flavor from Citra, El Dorado, Idaho 7 and Cashmere hops.”
I recommend pretty much everything Lakefront does, and this is no exception. Find it at your local liquor store!
Matt LaFleur’s historical dominance of the Bears
Five and a half seasons. Eleven games. Still, Matt LaFleur has never lost to the Chicago Bears.
The Packers’ 11-game winning streak against Chicago, which began with LaFleur’s arrival to Titletown, is now the longest streak by either team in the history of the franchise. When you consider how one-sided some portions of this rivalry have been, that’s a pretty impressive feat.
It’s also one of the things that’s going to give LaFleur a legacy to remember in Green Bay. Even if he should never win a Super Bowl, he will still be remembered for slaying the Bears over and over again.
Not a lot of coaches can ever say they get a double-digit winning streak against a divisional opponent, and LaFleur now is just pouring it on.
The Packers will get another chance to add to the streak in the final week of the regular season, a game that is likely to be completely meaningless at least for Chicago other than the need to finally notch a win in the rivalry.
Around the NFC North
As always, it’s time to go around the NFC North.
- The CHICAGO BEARS are dead in the water at this point. A 4-6 record and looking up at the rest of their division is going to be far too much for this team to overcome. Now the only thing left for this team to do is avoid playing too well so they can finally relieve themselves of Matt Eberflus, who never should have kept his job into this year to begin with. But the Bears are doomed to repeat their same cycle over and over, so in a few years they’ll be on to a new QB, keep a lame duck coach during his first year, then do it all over again.
- The DETROIT LIONS are now Super Bowl favorites for the very first time in the history of their franchise. That’s pretty incredible, considering they’ve been around for the entire history of the Super Bowl (and long before). They absolutely embarrassed the Jaguars and seem to be right back to their dominant form after a couple sluggish performances (that still resulted in victories). They’re going to be a very hard team to overcome in January.
- The MINNESOTA VIKINGS continue to squeak by, with their nondescript win over the Tennessee Titans bringing them to 8-2 on the year. It’s going to be fascinating to see how this team handles their quarterback situation going into next year. Sam Darnold is going to want a long-term deal, but they drafted JJ McCarthy to be the future. However, McCarthy is going to be coming back from a significant injury. What if they somehow end up with Aaron Rodgers?
This or That in Mr. Backes’s classroom: Week 11
As some of you may recall, last year I started doing weekly “this or that” polls on the whiteboard in my classroom at school for laughs. I decided to make it a weekly part of this column to keep you updated on what the youths are saying these days about entirely unimportant issues.
Here are some of the results from the last week:
- Oranges defeated bananas
- Morning workout defeated evening workout
- Guitar solo defeated drum solo
- [I lost the other poll I had this week]
I’ll continue to keep you updated on the most pressing issues of our time.
The ongoing Christmas music debate
How soon is too soon for Christmas music?
It feels like a constant cultural debate. I was raised in a household where the rule was always “not until the day after Thanksgiving.” I know others who stick to a very strict “December 1st” rule, but then there are others who bust out all of the Christmas music and decor as soon as Halloween is over.
I haven’t really started hearing music in stores yet, and since I don’t listen to the radio really I’ve been safe from it there as well. But the commercials have arrived in full force, and Thanksgiving is now just a week away.
So what is it: when do YOU start the Christmas music?
Week 12 Picks
The 49ers are always a bit scary, but this Packers team should have a short memory as a bunch of youngsters who very nearly knocked off that number one seed in their own stadium a season ago. Playing at home and with a lot to prove, the Packers will get past the boogeyman this time and advance to 8-3.
Expect the Packers to attack the middle of the field in the passing game.
Packers 27, 49ers 20
LAST WEEK: 10-5
SEASON TO DATE: 114-54
THIS WEEK, give me…
STEELERS over Browns
TEXANS over Titans
BEARS over Vikings
COMMANDERS over Cowboys
CHIEFS over Panthers
DOLPHINS over Patriots
BUCS over Giants
LIONS over Colts
BRONCOS over Raiders
SEAHAWKS over Cardinals
PACKERS over 49ers
EAGLES over Rams
PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.
__________________________
Tim Backes is a lifelong Packer fan and a contributor to CheeseheadTV. Follow him on Twitter @timbackes for his Packer takes, random musings and Untappd beer check-ins.
__________________________
Comments (41)
T7Steve
November 21, 2024 at 06:59 am
It's hard to beat an NFL team once let alone twice in the same season (unless it's the Bears), so the Packers need to beat the 9ers and help to eliminate them from the playoffs. Definitely about time.
The Bears only need to win two more games. Tim already picks them to beat the Vikings, and the Lions will feel sorry for them and counting snaps on their key players by then.
"[I lost the other poll I had this week]". Aren't you supposed to say, "the dog ate my homework", Tim?
LLCHESTY
November 21, 2024 at 03:41 pm
A 49ers loss doesn't eliminate them from the playoffs. It hurts their wildcard chances but in that division they could lose to the Packers and the Bills and then win three in a row and be tied for the division lead.
In other words the Packers could beat the 49ers and still wins up going to San Francisco in the playoffs.
stockholder
November 21, 2024 at 07:04 am
Great games coming.
So "it's time" to flip the switch.
We must beat the 49ers.
And the warning is obvious.
Every thing Counts.
LLCHESTY
November 21, 2024 at 04:34 pm
Am I the only one that pictures Stockholder walking around in tie die T-shirts and popping edibles like they're Chiclets? Just wonderin'.
Cheezehead72
November 21, 2024 at 07:19 am
Awhile back I said that I thought the Chiefs were the best team in the NFL. Now I am leaning towards the Lions but the Chiefs, Eagles, and Bills are all right there and I would not leave out the Commanders and Texans.
T7Steve
November 21, 2024 at 07:36 am
You left out the Packers too. GPG! Or does that go without saying?
LLCHESTY
November 21, 2024 at 04:07 pm
In the last 20 years the SB winners have overwhelmingly come from teams that were top 5 in scoring differential for that season. The Chiefs were an outlier last at 6th and would be an even bigger outlier this year. The top 5 as of now are the Lions, Bills, Eagles, Chargers and the Vikings(🤮). The Lions are on pace to finish in the top 10 of all time scoring seasons and that rarely finishes in a SB win, only 2000 Rams won a SB and they're tied for 10th all time.
BTW there's not much difference between the Packers(+37) and the 49ers(+28) and the Packers aren't far from where they finished last year(+33). That tells you the Packers have been lucky while the 49ers have been unlucky. That can sometimes last for a season like the Vikings a couple years ago(again 🤮) but almost always reverts to the norm the next year. If the Packers don't pick up the pace expect them to make the playoffs but not go far.
Leatherhead
November 21, 2024 at 07:41 am
The real season always starts around Thanksgiving, and this year is no exception. You can be .500 and go on a run. You could be a .750 team and take a key injury and miss the playoffs. There's film on everybody so the surprises of early season don't seem to happen any more. We have entered.....The Grind.
GB wins, they keep pace in the division and put SF in a big hole. GB loses and we slide down the WC seeding list. It's not time for experimenting; it's time to put it all together, and I think the Packers go 5-2 in their remaining 7 games and finish 12-5. A good season. Then we can focus on the playoffs.
T7Steve
November 21, 2024 at 08:01 am
Yes! Execution time. Blocking, tackling, catching, cleanliness, toughness.
I believe the Packers have what it takes. They've shown they are learning how to win close hard-fought games and are one click away from some dominating performances.
Stay healthy and keep the nose to the grinder time.
dobber
November 21, 2024 at 08:29 am
...and that's a key point: good teams find ways to win close games, or "games they should've lost".
There's always regression in that, but the question becomes is it a positive or negative one?
NJ-RICK
November 21, 2024 at 07:51 am
Until I see better defensive play from the Packers I'm taking the 49ers. Packers have so many holes on Defensive. If Brock Purdy has the time he will pick apart the Packers secondary with passes to Kittle, McCaffery, Debo, Jennings and Persall, especially over the middle of the field. If DE Bosa plays Love will be running for his life... The 49ers need this game more then the Packers do. Nothing would be sweeter if the Packers could beat the 49ers on Sunday believe me... Lukas VanNess is turning out to be a bust... Cox who they are praising this week wasn't even touched when he sacked the Bears QB. Packers need better D-Line play and put more pressure on the opposing QB. Should be and exciting game to watch, I hope the Packers can come up with better Defensive pressure.. GPG
Leatherhead
November 21, 2024 at 08:23 am
Let's start with some facts.
The defense, which you see having a lot of holes......
1)10th in scoring defense, 12th in yards.
2) 3rd in takeaways.
3) Has held 5 opponents...half....to under 20 points.
This, despite the permanently injured status of our best CB.
VanNess....he's a whipping boy now, for sure. Here's what this second year player has done.
1)He's a rotational DE, with Gary, Ebagbare, PSmith (before his trade), and others. He plays about 40% of the snaps.
2) He's 13th in tackles.
3) The only DL with more tackles for loss is Wyatt.
One more time. The Bell Curve tells us that we're not going to have above average players at every position, and above average players as backups at every position. Van Ness, by any measure you want to apply, is no worse than an average guy at this point. And he's only 23.
We will not win a Super Bowl because of Van Ness, and we will not come up short of a Super Bowl because of Van Ness. This fixation on his flaws is like looking at a pretty girl and then fixating on a crooked tooth.
T7Steve
November 21, 2024 at 08:37 am
"This fixation on his flaws is like looking at a pretty girl and then fixating on a crooked tooth."
And she doesn't sweat much, for a fat girl.
LLCHESTY
November 21, 2024 at 04:18 pm
Yeah but the back acne is pretty severe. Lights out only.
porupack
November 21, 2024 at 08:56 am
LH: that is a reasonable defense of the defense. Nonetheless, the DL still does no where near the kind of game altering effect such as elite defenses. Watching Steelers DL control Baltimore and a lethal dual threat QB was a thing of beauty. WIth all of GB's premier picks on the D....I think it is reasonable to expect more that some good stats. Alter the damn game.
T7Steve
November 21, 2024 at 09:40 am
Do you realize that the Ravens only ran King Henry 13 times in that game? Steelers MUST have a tough line if they forgot about him. He did average 5 YPC so I wonder what was happening? I remember complaining when the Packers didn't feed their RBs enough.
Leatherhead
November 21, 2024 at 01:28 pm
OK, let's look at the Steelers defense.
They're giving up 16.2 ppg, second in the league. They've held 7 opponents under 20. Both of those are better than the Packers, who are 10th at 21.3. If you take away Jordan Love pick sixes, it's closer than that. That alone would shave 2 points off our average.
I will say that Pittsburgh has played a fortunate number of games against some offensive weaklings. They did a good job against Baltimore, which is a good offensive team, but we held the Lions offense to 17.
They do have some first round picks on defense, too. Watt, Fitzpatrick,Queen, Heyward. They suit up 10 guys on defense who were Top 100 picks.
The Packers have done well against dual threat QBs this year, and that's why it was kind of disappointing to me that we let this guy get loose.
I'm not quite sure what you mean about "altering the game". Do getting turnovers alter the game? The Packers and Steelers each have 19 takeaways. The Packers have more sacks and a nearly identical sack%.
Why are the Steelers an 'elite' defense, that 'alters the game', and the Packers are not? I'm seeing about a field goal difference per game after 10 games, and that's not adjusting for strength of opponent or for giving up a "soft" score while protecting a two score lead.
Way back, 50 years ago at UW-SP, a prof laid it out for me: People see what they expect to see. It's a psychological phenomena. What we see is greatly influenced by what we expect to see. I've seen thousands of examples of this over the last half century. Nobody's immune.
LLCHESTY
November 21, 2024 at 04:20 pm
So you can put the Steelers season in context but not the Packers season last year?
Got it.
Leatherhead
November 22, 2024 at 02:20 pm
Yes, Pesty, I can.
The mighty Steelers gave up 24 points to the lowly Browns. When the Packer defense gives up 24 to the best team in the conference, that's a calamity.
Packerpasty
November 21, 2024 at 11:55 am
if LVN was anything other than mediocre at best, I pretty sure that would help out the other whipping boy, Gary, who gets no help from the other side of the line...
dobber
November 21, 2024 at 08:25 am
"They can do more to jockey for position by beating the 49ers this weekend at Lambeau Field....which are only being kept alive due to the general mediocrity of their division."
SF now has their key piece, Christian McCaffrey, back and he's handling more and more workload and looking better each week. He's going to get 25+ touches on Sunday. The Packers need to be ready for him, especially catching the ball. Kittle has been the best TE in the league this year. He's going to play on Sunday. In general, it's going to come down to Purdy's shoulder, Trent Williams' ankle, and Nick Bosa's oblique/other issues for them. They've played very good defense this season and have moved the football up and down the field on teams...they just haven't scored in a way that matches that output.
The 9ers could very possibly win out and help push the Packers or Washington out of the playoff picture. Every game is important from here out, but as a home conference game against a possible playoff team, the Packers need this one.
"LaF's dominance of the Bears"
The Packers have caught a franchise in a down stretch--they only really had that one good year under Nagy in recent history--and they've beaten them, as the better team should to the weaker team. At the end of the season, that only means 2 wins out of (hopefully) a bunch. Don't get me wrong, it's fun to beat the Bears: younger Packers fan don't see them as the rival as much as we older fans do. But the next game is the one that matters (that's the 9ers), and hopefully when the finale comes, the Packers will have salted away a playoff berth and the Bears will be ground down by their craptitude and the outcome will only really matter in terms of maintaining the streak--but hopefully the Packers will see the bigger picture and not do something foolish like risking players for the playoffs just to push that number one more tick.
"Around the NFCN"
I have the Lions, Bears, and Packers this week.
If the Bears play like they did against the Packers, they'll neutralize the Vikes' pass rush and play catch-run on their weak corners all day. The Vikes are teetering on the edge, and aren't really a threat to run the ball since Darrisaw got hurt. I see a 2+ pick game out of Darnold this week.
The Lions should be able to name the score against the Colts. At some point the Lions will start to fizzle, and a hot team will likely take them down in the playoffs.
NO CHRISTMAS MUSIC 'TIL AFTER THANKSGIVING DINNER!
...and "All I Want For Christmas Is You" should be sucked into the deepest vortex of hell.
Bitternotsour
November 21, 2024 at 09:34 am
i think the Vikings pressure confuses and frustrates Williams into multiple mistakes, it's hard out there for a rookie. The Vikings coast.
everyone should bet heavily on football outcomes, it's easy money.
LLCHESTY
November 21, 2024 at 04:25 pm
Flores vs an inexperienced QB hasn't worked out well for the inexperienced QB. One reason why I wanted him as the Packers DC last year. They would have rolled with all the crappy QBs on that schedule.
crayzpackfan
November 21, 2024 at 10:03 am
"Kittle has been the best TE in the league this year."
I think Brock Bowers might be handing his beer to Kittle this year? 70 catches 706 yards and 3 TD's. Kittle has 43 - 560 - 7 TD's. Plus Bowers is a rookie playing with the worlds crappiest QB's
LeotisHarris
November 21, 2024 at 08:38 am
After the Bears kicked their OC to the curb, I learned they do not have a coach on staff with experience in working with young QBs. Wow. What could they have been thinking? May confusion and ineptitude continue to reign in Chicago.
Oranges over bananas. SHM.
T7Steve
November 21, 2024 at 08:54 am
They kind of forgot about the O-line too. That's why they told him to get rid of the ball in under 2 seconds.
SicSemperTyrannis
November 22, 2024 at 04:37 am
SHM = SanHedrin Maybe?
TXCHEESE
November 21, 2024 at 08:47 am
I predicted the Packers would win going away last week. While they did cut the penalties significantly and Love generally made good decisions, it was one of those divisional games where the records don't mean squat. I give the Bears credit for coming to play and competing hard. MLF needs to do the obvious on 2nd and 1 at the 5, and run the damn ball. That was the opportunity to get the TD and start the doubting on the Chicago sideline.
Pack just needs to play clean, efficient football and the wins will come. Outside of Detroit, they have the better roster in the remaining matchups assuming continued health, and even Detroit is not an obviously more talented team.
I've wondered if moving LVN inside on passing downs should be something to consider. At this point, he's basically a bull rusher and that might help collapse the pocket better than using Clark.
As far as Christmas music, I don't mind breaking out some TSO tunes after Thanksgiving, but as far as the traditional stuff, I'm good with waiting till mid-December. ".and "All I Want For Christmas Is You" should be sucked into the deepest vortex of hell." Now, the old Foghat version of that song is pretty cool.
GPG!
barutanseijin
November 21, 2024 at 04:46 pm
Jingle Bell Rock plays constantly in the deepest parts of the inferno.
SicSemperTyrannis
November 22, 2024 at 04:41 am
It'll be a Foghat Christmas? Lol I have to check that out.
I've been saying LVN should at least be tried inside since he was drafted. It might not work, but nothing else is either so what's there to lose by trying?
He needs to pony up and work with a specialist; I don't know how soon is feasible to start, but him and RG have the same needs maybe they could split the bill?
TheBigCat
November 21, 2024 at 09:13 am
I'm reminded of a quote Lou Holtz made a few years ago when a favored team unexpectedly lost: "You never know which team is going to show up." In that fateful 2014 NFC Championship game, prior to the onside kick, the ST coach told the GB players "If your name is NOT Jordy Nelson or Micah Hyde, DO NOT touch the ball." You may remember how that went. So, here's hoping the coaches coach and the players play better than their opponents.
RCPackerFan
November 21, 2024 at 09:19 am
Matt LaFleur’s historical dominance of the Bears -
LaFleur has absolutely dominated the Bears. No other way to put it.
Around the NFC North
The CHICAGO BEARS -
The Bears have a good defense. And yet the Packers marched up and down the field on them. I am not sure how good Williams will be in the NFL. He looked better with a new play caller. He can make all the throws. But, there is something just missing with him. We will see how he is in the future with different coaches.
The DETROIT LIONS -
While they are one of the front runners right now to win the Super Bowl it is Novemeber. You can't win the championship in November. Injuries impact things. Playoffs change things also. Also, Goff has shown the ability to make big time mistakes in games.
The MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Vikings i don't forsee making a deep play off run. They seem to just get by a lot of games. Darnold to me isn't the long term solution. But he could be the guy next year as well. McCarthy maybe the future but it might be a couple of years before he fully sees the field.
The ongoing Christmas music debate
How soon is too soon for Christmas music?
For me its Christmas right after Thanksgiving.
SicSemperTyrannis
November 22, 2024 at 04:43 am
After turkey day is ok for Christmas music. (Don't tell anyone I already cooked a whole bird and only maybe two meals left of it)
Lphill
November 21, 2024 at 12:33 pm
Packers will be a wild card team and lose, I'm ok with that, this is not a super bowl caliber team, new D coordinator, new scheme , several rookies and lacking depth at corner , sacks are far and few and Hafley still doesn't play Cooper the entire game, all I want is to see progress in every game which has not been the case lately, then evaluate in the off season and make personnel changes through free agency and the draft then take a step forward next season Detroit didn't get good overnight its a process.
Leatherhead
November 21, 2024 at 01:32 pm
We are the youngest team in the league, and it would be illogical to assume we will win the Super Bowl this year.
I will point in that in 2010, we were 7-3, just like now. We lost 3 of the next 4 and were at 8-6. We won our last two and squeaked into the playoffs as the #6 seed. But then....we got our shit together in a big way and won the Super Bowl. It could happen. As a team, we're pretty similar to the 2010 bunch.
Bitternotsour
November 21, 2024 at 02:47 pm
in order to win the super bowl, you have to be in the playoffs. that is the only goal right now.
SicSemperTyrannis
November 22, 2024 at 04:45 am
It would help if they score more points than SF this weekend, too.
LLCHESTY
November 21, 2024 at 04:32 pm
Apples to oranges. The Packers finished 2nd in the league in point differential that year and never lost by double digits. Big difference between being +148 and +37
SicSemperTyrannis
November 22, 2024 at 04:46 am
GPG!
While my hopes are reduced, if this team rediscovers the mojo they had their last 8 games last season -
GPG!!
barutanseijin
November 21, 2024 at 04:20 pm
The Packers just need to win conference games. Obviously, beating the Niners would help with tie-breakers and possibly keep a nemesis out of the playoffs. (Keep in mind that if the Niners get bounced some other stronger team will take their place.)
However, even if they lose, they can still make it. They just have to win enough other games to make the cut. Either they beat some tough teams and prove they belong in the playoffs, or they don’t, in which case they wouldn’t last beyond the wildcard round anyway.
Christmas music? It’s never a good time for that.
SicSemperTyrannis
November 22, 2024 at 04:50 am
Once in the playoffs it's still any given Sunday.
With all the talent this team has, they could catch fire at any time, you never know.
Of course the skeptical forecast is they've been playing poorly, WAY below their best, so the most reasonable expectation is more of the same.
Reasonable people do not play football for a living. There's some serious competitive fire in the locker room, and anything is still possible. Key injuries are definitely a factor though; some big time stepping up needs to be done.