Heart and Head Predictions for 2010
Aaron's prediction for the 2010 Packers season.
By PackerAaron
Every year since Corey and I started this website I have offered up a prediction from the heart and a prediction from the head for the upcoming Packers season. And as both the national and local pundits have made their picks, I guess its time for me to make mine.
Heart: 13-3 - Super Bowl Champs
Head: 11-5 - NFC Championship Loss
Obviously, I want to believe in this team. I want to get caught up in the Super Bowl talk. I want the next four months to end up with Cheesehead TV in Dallas covering the Packers in a triumphant Super Bowl appearance. I want to be able to close my eyes to history, to all the potential pit-falls, to the weak spots on the roster that could derail that trip to Dallas.
The current Super Bowl champs were coming off an 8-8 campaign heading into 2009. There's no reason a team coming off of an 11-5 campaign should not be able to win the Super Bowl. But the Saints had two things heading into 2009 that the Packers don't heading into 2010.
The Saints were piloted by a quarterback who had been to an NFC Championship game only a few years earlier. The Packers have a quarterback who, though immensely talented and set to become one of the games top signal callers for the next decade, has yet to win a playoff game. Not only that, but when he was presented with the biggest stage of his career, Aaron Rodgers threw a completely out of character interception on his first throw of the game and then missed a wide open Greg Jennings to win the game on the first play of overtime. The latter moment is where championship quarterbacks separate themselves from the rest of their NFL brethren. Instead, Rodgers failed to seal the deal.
Yes Rodgers put on an amazing show, leading the Packers back from an incredible deficit. And he's been nothing short of brilliant in his first two seasons as a starter. But I don't expect a quarterback who couldn't overcome the pressure of the biggest moment of his career up to that point to then turn around the next season and guide his team to a Super Bowl victory.
Now, I can hear the cries of protestation already, about how I'm not even talking about the problems on this team, about the suspect pass rush, about the shockingly shallow depth in the secondary, or the seemingly never ending problems on special teams. People see me writing about their favorite quarterback, roll their eyes, and mutter "Here goes Nagler hating on Rodgers again..."
Here's how highly I think of Aaron Rodgers: He trumps all the problems. That's how good I think he is.
It doesn't matter that I think the Packers will continue to have problems stopping elite quarterbacks. It doesn't matter that I think Shaun Slocum is in over his head. It doesn't matter that Ted Thompson probably didn't do enough to help this team get over the hump.
Rodgers negates all of that. It's because of Rodgers (with an assist from Charles Woodson) that I see the Packers reaching the NFC Championship game at all.
But here is where the Packers lack the other element the Saints possesed heading into 2009: A personnel head who is not afraid to bring in one or two veteran players, even midway through the season, to fortify holes on the roster that have cropped up either through injury or misjudged talent.
It's no coincidence that when the Saints and the Packers suffered injuries in their secondaries last year, the team that went out and re-fortified the position with the likes of Mike McKenzie (who played a huge role in the Saints regular season win over the Patriots) went on to win the Super Bowl while the team that re-fortified the position by promoting Jarrett Bush and signing Josh Bell was one-and-done in the playoffs after giving up a playoff record number of points and yardage.
I think this team is immensely talented. I agree with Mike McCarthy when he says this is the most talented squad he's had since Thompson brought him on board. But that talent is not evenly distributed throughout the roster and where the talent pools run shallow (at outside linebacker and secondary) are too closely aligned and too important to each other for me to see a Super Bowl champion.
Packer fans know the heartbreak of getting to the NFC Championship game and falling short of the Super Bowl only too well. And I hate to think of us all having to go through that pain again. But as I've said over and over - this is not a team gearing up for one last desperate run at a title. This is a team who's window is opening. Thompson has the Packers perfectly positioned to be like the Colts or the Steelers over the course of the next decade, teams that are perenially good, even great, and who will eventually win championships.
I just don't think it happens this year.
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Comments (51)
September 11, 2010 at 11:28 pm
Heart = 19-0
Head = 14-2 with the Lombardi.
As I look up and down the schedule, I for the life of me don't see a game where I immediately think 'loss'. I think if we bring our A game every week we can beat every team in the league any week. But it's inevitable there will be a couple of hiccups along the way. In the end though I think we have the right mix of youngsters, A-Rod, Jennings, Finley, Collins, Mathews, Raji to compliment the savy vets, Woodson, Picket, Barnett, Clifton, Tauscher, Harris (he will lift us in the second half when we need him) to reach the ultimate goal... bringing the Lombardi home.
So stoked, be lucky to get a solid 3 hours tonight...
GBP 4 LIFE
BUP-BUP-TO-THE-BANG
WOOT
September 11, 2010 at 11:30 pm
Pickett, my bad Ryan.
September 11, 2010 at 11:33 pm
Well said, Aaron. It's so easy for a fanbase of a team on the cusp, particularly a fanbase as loyal as the one that supports the Packers, to get caught up in the hype. But these Packers aren't the same as last year's Saints for so many reasons that don't involve Rodgers vs. Brees. "Doomed I tell you...doomed."
One more year.
Just to humor us, though, who do you have taking out Green Bay in the NFC title?
September 11, 2010 at 11:39 pm
“Doomed I tell you…doomed.”
Kick rocks.
September 11, 2010 at 11:47 pm
"But these Packers aren’t the same as last year’s Saints for so many reasons that don’t involve Rodgers vs. Brees."
Please expound.
Oh, and just curios, why do we need to be last years saints? Were last years Saints the previous years Steelers? NOT EVEN CLOSE, totally different approach. Were those Steelers the Giants of the year before? Those Giants the Colts? No on all counts.
We don't need to worry about the Saints of last year, we're not chasing ghosts. As long as THIS TEAM plays to it's potential, the Packers of 2010 will be just fine.
GBP 4 LIFE
September 11, 2010 at 11:48 pm
curious... dammit
September 12, 2010 at 01:57 am
"Were last years Saints the previous years Steelers? NOT EVEN CLOSE, totally different approach."
Very well said. Packers and Saints have very similar approaches, though, but it's a fair point, mor than one way to skin a cat.
September 12, 2010 at 02:12 am
RS,
'IT'S' here. Let's go grab this here title... Love you brother!
W
O
O
T
September 11, 2010 at 11:36 pm
Aaron, always love to read your posts. I am amazed at your ability and effort.
But, now let the games begin. We will see at the end of this marathon how it all shook out. I am looking forward to the ride.
PackerAaron
September 11, 2010 at 11:53 pm
Thanks for the kind words James.
September 11, 2010 at 11:36 pm
Who are the 5 losses to Aaron?
PackerAaron
September 11, 2010 at 11:38 pm
No idea.
September 11, 2010 at 11:54 pm
I hear you. That's why it's hard for me to pencil them in for 5 losses, although that's probably a realistic W/L record. I just have a problem saying they're going to lose to an Atlanta or NY Jets team when I don't think there's a team on the schedule that's better than we are. It's tough trying to pick who we will lose to.
PackerAaron
September 12, 2010 at 12:00 am
"I don’t think there’s a team on the schedule that’s better than we are"
Totally agree with that sentiment - but NFL teams are way too close talent-wise to expect anything else. The Pack had no business losing to the Bucs, Bengals or even Steelers last year. Yet they did. It's the way of the NFL.
September 12, 2010 at 01:01 am
Can't argue that.
September 12, 2010 at 10:12 am
Well, it's hard to say who the 5 loses are, but no way anybody would have pointed to a Bengals loss at home and a loss to lowly Tampa Bay. I want to see dominance at home, expect the team to slump at least full game on the road, and get hot/cold at other times on the road.
September 11, 2010 at 11:41 pm
I disagree with your point regarding Rodgers, just because he made 2 bad throws in a playoff game it does not mean he could not handle the pressure of a playoff game. Brees and Manning were not perfect in the playoffs but were still able to lead their teams to the Super Bowl.
I do agree on your point on Thompson. I'm glad Thompson has a plan and he sticks to it, but his stubborness could cost this team a chance at a Super Bowl this year. Injuries in the secondary, along the defensive line or at OLB could ruin the Packers season.
PackerAaron
September 11, 2010 at 11:49 pm
I think Rodgers could handle the pressure of a playoff game in general - but he tends to tighten up the bigger the moment gets. Just my opinion.
September 11, 2010 at 11:57 pm
4th quarter, game one, last season. Down on national TV, hits 85 to come back and seal it. Pretty big moment. I'd say he's batting about .500. He did rush the on in OT in the desert though, I don't think that will be an ongoing issue.
PackerAaron
September 12, 2010 at 12:01 am
I knew someone would bring that up. Throwing for a winning touchdown when you have the entire season stretching out before you is totally different than hitting a guy for the winning TD in sudden death OT where its win or go home...
September 12, 2010 at 01:15 am
Yes it was different. But don't downplay the importance of that game and that pass because it happened week 1. I believe that pass meant more AND WAS BIGGER than if Rodgers hits Jennings in OT and we just go into New Orleans and get shredded the next week (which we would have folks).
If you recall going into last season the talk was all about how Rodgers had great #'s his first year but couldn't bring his team back in the 4th when they needed him. The guy couldn't 'rally the troops'.
Had 12 not connected with 85 for the game winner, at home, against the Bears, week one, on Sunday Night Football the "can't do it when it matters" sentiment would have continued until??? But he did, and that talk stopped. I don't want to think what that season would have been like if we start losing to the Bears at home because our QB couldn't get it done in crunchtime. To me, that was the biggest pass of A-Rod's career to this point, and still would be had he hit Jennings in the desert.
Just my take on that
September 12, 2010 at 02:03 am
The pressure thing is complete BS Aaron and you know it.
Yes, you're absolutely right on the "he missed a wide open Jennings" comment, but no matter how you look at it, it's just one throw. Wasn't there pressure when he hit Havner for the game tying TD? Yes, even more than the Jennings throw. And he did that. Converting tons of 3rd downs that game, wasn't there pressure? If he misses ONE of those, it's game over. Missing the Jennings throw didn't immediately end the game..
You know that, yes, he, mentally, wasn't in the same level as Brees. But he played out of his mind in that game, and, if they do not BS us, if the D doesn't completely quit on us, we win it, with his stellar play.
PackerAaron
September 12, 2010 at 08:11 am
"The pressure thing is complete BS Aaron and you know it." - No I don't. You disagree. Fine.
September 12, 2010 at 07:41 am
#85 ran a triple-move (ridiculous) and rogers was undetermined pressure. Brees, manning or Brady at their best complete that route less than 20% of the time given the same circumstances. Rubbish to say he "missed"
PackerAaron
September 12, 2010 at 08:09 am
You are insane.
September 12, 2010 at 09:43 am
Triple move, timing throw 50 yds in the air while under pressure. No insanity involved, you don't even see that route and throw 6 times a year in the entire league.
PackerAaron
September 12, 2010 at 09:48 am
He's NOT under pressure. He sidesteps the "pressure" beautifully. Just makes a bad throw. And for the record, he's hit that exact route to Jennings several times over the last two years.
September 12, 2010 at 09:54 am
Exactly, he had to sidestep, set his stance and time a 50 yard ball in the air on a triple move. You rarely understate or exaggerate, Aaron, but you're completely understating the difficulty of that pitch and catch. We can agree to disagree because that particular route and throw is beyond difficult to complete.
And I'll get crap for this prediction, but I say they win the NFC North at 10-6. They should be 12-4 but special teams or Mason Crosby cost them 2 games.
September 12, 2010 at 01:01 am
Great post, Aaron. Expresses my own nagging fears about this team perfectly.
That said... Dammit I believe in Rodgers this year. New champions are minted all the time, and I think Rodgers is ready. He muffed the opening of the AZ game last year, but he righted the ship and played amazingly. He missed GJ, but even the greatest have a margin for error on a long throw like that.
Game on tomorrow!!!
September 12, 2010 at 01:05 am
"...and then missed a wide open Greg Jennings to win the game on the first play of overtime. The latter moment is where championship quarterbacks separate themselves from the rest of their NFL brethren. Instead, Rodgers failed to seal the deal."
Simple way to sidestep this: build up a big enough lead so the game doesn't come down to a final play. ;)
September 12, 2010 at 01:35 am
I think this team learned a lot after last year's great pre-season/early slump (going 4-4). They've even said as much, about feeling "entitled," over-confidence, etc. What happened next? We went 7-1 (and the one game we lost was on a last second play). I think the playoffs was another learning experience for this team. So I think mentally, this team is where it needs to be.
Have teams been able to throw the ball on us? Unfortunately yes. But despite that, I think there are enough play makers on our defense where we will win the turnover battle most Sundays.
But the secret weapon of the 2010 Packers, I feel, is our o-line. After the way they played coming down the stretch last year, I see no reason why that can't continue. And when you give #12 time to throw the ball? I mean, c'mon.
14-2, Super Bowl champs.
September 12, 2010 at 01:49 am
MARK! I like the cut of your jib.
"Have teams been able to throw the ball on us? Unfortunately yes."
No team is bulletproof from top to bottom, everybody has holes. I think we will give up some big plays, I'm expecting it actually. The thing is, I think our O will have more big plays than our D allows. Do the math.
Totally with you on the O-line. Rewind 365 days... the continuity is night and day from a year ago. And we have backups who actually know where they will be playing should an injury occur, makes all the difference in the world.
T minus 13 hrs 12 min....
LET'S DO THIS SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!
September 12, 2010 at 02:07 am
You know when an article is REALLY good? When you disagree with it, but you just can't dispute it. Kudos, Aaron.
I think we win the SB. The experience factor, the talent on the team, the approach of the management in this offseason, are arguments for that.
But I can't REALLY argue against someone thinking this team has too many holes, specially on D and ST, to win it all, when the talent level between quality teams is so close...
September 12, 2010 at 02:22 am
I hear that. But, it's EASY to say 11-5, that's a pretty safe estimate. Not really putting yourself out there either way. I want somebody to tell me who those 5 losses are to though. Who is going to be better than us 5 times this year? Not saying it won't happen, but I'd like to see the reasoning behind those 5 losses.
The game that I could see us having trouble with is @ NE. I still think we walk away with a W though...
19-0
GBP 4 LIFE
September 12, 2010 at 06:58 am
The Vikings used free agency to fill holes, and they also know the heartbreak of losing the NFC championship game.
September 12, 2010 at 07:45 am
I agree with your general point about Thompson. He got a lot of credit for building Seattle's SB roster, but they did not get over the hump until they brought in a couple of significant free agents. I think the McKenzie example is a little unfair though, because I don't think he was really going anywhere other than New Orleans.
This team is one year away, my opinion. Rodgers is part of that, and I would have more confidence if he had found a way to win in Arizona or in either Vikings game. It's not all on the QB, but the QB position is more mental than any other, and I just think that there is a learning process here. If the Rodgers does something to pull out a win against the Vikings, particularly at Minnesota, then I think the significance would be similar to a Wild Card round win.
I also think that there are othe guys who are going to have to develop before this is a SB team. Clifton is already showing up on the injury report with his knee, without seeing a single snap in the regular season. Is Bulaga ready to be a solid NFL LT? I hope so. Everyone who is SB-hyped talks about the offense, but the D has to be able to make stops, and I don't see the D getting it done this year. I'd like the D-Line better if Jolly was part of the six. I'd like the LB corps better with one more play-maker. I'd like the secondary better without two rookies as starters (yes, I'm counting Shields along with Burnett). Next year looks much better to me. I think that Nagler's prediction is spot on.
September 12, 2010 at 07:49 am
Just to head off the inevitable, when I say, "I'd like a group better," I mean that they haven't shown enough yet to make me believe in them. I certainly hope that I'm dead wrong.
September 12, 2010 at 09:45 am
Show me a QB that's shown more mental toughness in the league the last 2 years. You can't...
September 12, 2010 at 07:47 am
So Aaron Rodgers is the reason the Packers WON'T win the SB... Got it.
Oh - and TT's mid season moves this year will be Bigby and Harris - both better than Mike McKenzie.
Not.Too.Shabby.
September 12, 2010 at 08:19 am
what did I miss?
you think rodgers is really good but they won't win the SB because he's not mentally ready...
"But I don’t expect a quarterback who couldn’t overcome the pressure of the biggest moment of his career up to that point to then turn around the next season and guide his team to a Super Bowl victory."
And you don't see any midseason moves on the horizon that will help in areas of need...
"But here is where the Packers lack the other element the Saints possesed heading into 2009: A personnel head who is not afraid to bring in one or two veteran players, even midway through the season, to fortify holes on the roster that have cropped up either through injury or misjudged talent."
So, again... what did I miss?
PackerAaron
September 12, 2010 at 08:27 am
I just think its a big jump to expect a QB who's never won a playoff game and who had one there for the taking and blew it to turn around and win the Super Bowl.
September 12, 2010 at 08:34 am
Yeah - I guess you're probably right.
In fact, if you were to look at history and at percentages, then you're definitely right.
But I sort of have a feeling that Rodgers is different. He's already been through so much -off the field- that I think he's been "hardened". And the dude's doing things that no one else has done in such a young career. The kid is special.
But I do understand your point.
p.s. I still think getting Bigby and Harris back mid-season could be huge for this team
PackerAaron
September 12, 2010 at 09:06 am
Totally agree on Bigby. I worry about Harris losing a step, esp at his age. But he's proven me wrong so many times I can't count him out...
September 12, 2010 at 08:42 am
Our heads and hearts are in the same place this season Aaron. I think the difference between the two is a little luck. The Saints had a little luck pulling off game changing plays in the NFC Championship and Super bowl, two game's they easily could have lost. It could go either way, depending on the way the ball bounces and how a few gambles pay off. The great news either way is that this team is build for the next five years. GO PACK!
PackerAaron
September 12, 2010 at 09:07 am
"I think the difference between the two is a little luck" - Agreed. Here comes TarynFor12 to reprimand us... ;)
September 12, 2010 at 09:51 am
U could equate the mckenzie pickup with the tauscher re-signing could u not?
We didn't lose the Arizona game because of a-rod--he had FIVE td's people. We lost because our defense is horrible and we had the three turnovers, that we really didn't have all year.
Saints and colts have mediocre pass defenses last year just like us. We could have won the superbowl with the luck the saints had. They got dominated by Minnesota, should have lost if it weren't for what? Six turnovers or whatever it was.
Despite our holes on d, I honestly beleive if we protect a-rod, don't turn it over, and j-mike and Jennings stay healthy we cannot be outscored.
PackerAaron
September 12, 2010 at 10:04 am
Of course they didn't lose because of Rodgers. I never said they did. He did have a chance to WIN the game, which he blew.
September 12, 2010 at 10:29 am
Right that's true he blew that one play, but no other qb in the league is expected to put up as much as he is. If he had hit Jennings he would have had 5td passes, 1td run, and over 500+ yards. No one expects Manning or Brady to do THAT much. So shouldn't we look to the other players and hold them accountable to stepping up more than Rodgers?
I understand your point but I think since Qb is the biggest position we focus too much on it, and act like the superbowl is won and lost because of the QB. And I know you don't think that, just saying I think the focus of this year should be on how the players around A-rod play.
If you watch the superbowl neither Manning or Brees played amazingly. The superbowl was won with the interception and the onside kick IMO.
September 12, 2010 at 10:07 am
I would love to see them win the Super Bowl (duh). But if the Packers can simply have a deep playoff run and beat the crap out of the Vikings both times they play, I will consider the season a raging success. SB can come next year. :)
September 12, 2010 at 02:18 pm
Rogers will never have completely exorcised the ghost of Brent Fvaer until he beats him at least once.Twice would be better. That would probably lock up the division and give him the emotional lift he needs to start winning playoff games. I would go on to say, if that happens, BF would finally retire for good.
Let's keep the good thought.
And by the way, don't we still owe the Beagles something for that not soon to be forgotten fourth and 26?
It's like I always say, pluck the eagles. (or something that kind of sounds like that)
September 12, 2010 at 05:03 pm
Were you wearing croc's?
Agree with you too!
Division record will tell alot about our charactor.
All SB teams need rookies to step up and play solid. Can ours?
Seems like alot of people are preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best.
Go Pack!