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Against the Spread: Packers vs. Lions

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Against the Spread: Packers vs. Lions

Throughout the course of the season we're highlighting the betting lines for every Packers game, both against the spread and the over/under. I'm going to make the case for each possibility, then choose one of each, and track my winnings (or losings) for every game. Here goes...

(For what it's worth, I'm using Danny Sheridan's lines.)

Line: Lions -3

  • Bet the Packers: Does it matter if the Packers bench their starters? Green Bay has shown this year and last that their backups are pretty darn good. They can win with the likes of Matt Flynn, Evan Dietrich-Smith and D.J. Smith in the game. Besides, the backups might be more motivated than the starters. Flynn, in particular, is auditioning for the rest of the NFL as he's set to become a free agent at season's end.
  • Bet the Lions: The Lions have more motivation. Not only do they want to enter the postseason with some momentum, they're still gunning to become a higher seed. And even if the Packers were motivated, their defense has struggled all season regardless. It's the perfect opportunity for Matt Stafford and company to make some hay.

Final decision: Bet the Packers. At +3, it's tough to pick against the Packers. This is still a team that won 14 games this season.

Last week: I picked the Bears -13, and the Packers covered by one point.

Over/under: 45

  • Bet the over: Greg Jennings might be out, but the Packers can't really bench the rest of their wide receivers. Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver and James Jones will get plenty of playing time, and they're good targets for Matt Flynn. Nearly every time he gets an opportunity, Flynn has shown he can direct the Packers on scoring drives. Green Bay has been sieve-like on defense most all season. That doesn't figure to end on Sunday when having to deal with Megatron.
  • Bet the under: From Cliff Avril to Ndamukong Suh to several players down the Lions defensive line depth chart, they should be able to get a good pass rush on the Packers, especially if the Green Bay offensive line is experimenting and shuffling around. There's a good chance they'll be able to get several stops on defense, particularly if Aaron Rodgers is sitting on the sidelines. And despite their issues, the Packers defense limited the Lions to 15 points in their first meeting this season.

Final decision: Bet the over. The defenses figure to give up enough points to the potent offenses they'll face.

Prediction: Lions 24 Packers 22. If there was ever a game to stay away from betting, this might be it. It's almost impossible to predict what will happen with two teams with varying degrees of motivation.

Last week: I picked the under 44, and it went over in a surprisingly high-scoring contest.

Cumulative record vs. the line: 14-16

Cumulative record straight up: 13-2

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PackersRS's picture

If you're even considering betting on this game, you've got a gambling problem and you should seek professional help.

I say this half-jokingly.

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