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Against the Spread: Packers vs. Buccaneers

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Against the Spread: Packers vs. Buccaneers

Throughout the course of the season we're highlighting the betting lines for every Packers game, both against the spread and the over/under. I'm going to make the case for each possibility, then choose one of each, and track my winnings (or losings) for every game. Here goes...

(For what it's worth, I'm using Danny Sheridan's lines.)

Line: Packers -14

  • Bet the Packers: The Packers last game against the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night could have been a turning point. Previously, the Packers had been great at creating turnovers and limiting points, but they gave up way too many yards. Versus the Vikings, they put together a well-rounded defensive effort reminiscent to the 2010 season when Green Bay was one of the better defenses in the league.
  • Bet the Buccaneers: Maybe Albert Haynesworth was just what the Buccaneers needed for a struggling defense. Even though he has big-time attitude issues, the potential is still there in Haynesworth. His debut last week, in which he had five tackles, was impressive considering the circumstances that saw him move from New England to Tampa Bay. He provides a veteran presence along with cornerback Ronde Barber for a team that need to play better on that side of the football.

Final decision: Bet the Packers. Even with Haynesworth, the Buccaneers still don't have what it takes to stop the Packers. They've been giving up yards at an alarming rate to teams a lot worse than Green Bay.

Last week: I picked the Vikings at -12 1/2, and it wasn't even close as the Packers annhilated Minnesota 45-7.

Over/under: 48 1/2

  • Bet the over: The Packers have now scored more than 40 points in four games this season. If they're able to do that against the likes of the Saints and the Chargers, the Packers certainly have the capability to do it against an underwhelming Bucs defense. As for the Tampa Bay offense, they have enough talented skill players and a cohesive offensive line that's enough to be dangerous. Quarterback Josh Freeman is a threat and his receivers and tight ends have potential if not consistency.
  • Bet the under: Are the Packers motivated to win and win big? With a bigger division game against the Detroit Lions for Thanksgiving on deck, the Packers could be content to coast in this one. Perhaps the coaches will even be motivated to take the starters out of the game in the second half if the Packers can get a big enough lead. They'll only have three days until the Lions game, and they'll want to rest Aaron Rodgers.

Final decision: Bet the over. The Buccaneers are poor enough on defense that the Packers can score at will even if they're not motivated. And even if a player like Aaron Rodgers does come out, Matt Flynn has shown that he can still direct the team to score.

Prediction: Packers 45 Buccaneers 7

Last week: I picked the over, and it took until late in the game to ensure it would go over, but it did.

Cumulative record vs. the line: 9-9

Cumulative record straight up: 8-1

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (6) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

The Pack covers the spread at home, until that trend stops, give the points.

GBP - 34
Bux - 17


Brian Carriveau's picture

I like the way you think.

dawg's picture

If OL protects Rodgers, he and Clements will dominate, DL needs to pick it up!!!

PackersRS's picture

I think the same way you do, Brian, but it seems the Packers intentionally play the over/under the opposite of what you pick every week... Last game if it weren't for Flynn...

Brian Carriveau's picture

Yeah, like a lot of people, I'm persuaded just by what they did the previous week. If the Packers scored a ton last week, they'll score a ton this week. Doesn't always work out that way. Oh well.

Bob's picture

Play the way the Pack played last week against the Vikings. I like the Packers to score over 48 points.

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