Against the Spread: Packers vs. Bears

The Packers are favored by 13 points and the over/under is 44. So what's going to happen? We have the prediction.

Throughout the course of the season we're highlighting the betting lines for every Packers game, both against the spread and the over/under. I'm going to make the case for each possibility, then choose one of each, and track my winnings (or losings) for every game. Here goes...

(For what it's worth, I'm using Danny Sheridan's lines.)

Line: Packers -13

  • Bet the Packers: Aaron Rodgers will have success against the Bears secondary minus both Major Wright and Chris Conte at the safety position. And that's only the tip of the iceberg in regards to injuries for the Bears. They'll be without their top performer at each of the skill positions: quarterback Jay Cutler, running back Matt Forte and wide receiver Johnny Knox. Without key personnel like that, it will be tough for them to hang with any team in the NFL, let alone the Packers.
  • Bet the Bears: Despite straight up losses, the Bears have only allowed 10, 21 and 27 points in each of their last three meetings with the Packers. And because the front seven of the Bears defense is so good, there's reason to believe they'll be able to slow down the Packers once again, especially with a patchwork Green Bay offensive line and without wide receiver Greg Jennings too.

Final decision: Bet the Bears. Both teams are beat up with injuries, but the performance of the Bears front seven on D vs. the Packers offensive line will be enough to keep it close.

Last week: I picked the Packers straight up, but the Chiefs against the spread. As far as the pocketbook goes, that's a win.

Over/under: 44

  • Bet the over: Forget the loss to the Chiefs. Think back to the last game at Lambeau Field against the Raiders when the Packers put up 46 points. They're not going to put up that many against the Bears, but the Rodgers will be able to find Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley and company for several scores against a below average Chicago secondary. As far as a scoring threat from the Bears, they did nothing with Caleb Hanie at the helm. Josh McCown can only do better, and might be able to against a Packers defense that made Chiefs quarterback Kyle Orton look like a superstar last week.
  • Bet the under: It's Packers-Bears. They're usually low-scoring affairs. The Packers could be in a little bit of a funk after failing to do much against the Chiefs. And even against a struggling Packers defense, the Bears offense isn't much of a threat.

Final decision: Bet the under. Get ready for a punting contest.

Prediction: Packers 21 Bears 20

Last week: I picked the under, and in a low-scoring contest, it was the right choice.

Cumulative record vs. the line: 14-14

Cumulative record straight up: 12-2

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Comments (12)

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darrin's picture

December 22, 2011 at 06:40 pm

Except for the Raiders game this team lost some mojo in the last month or so. Maybe it was complacency, or maybe just other teams watching film and figuring out the weak spots. Either way, I think we'll see a more determined effort this week and a two touchdown win. No way can the Bears put up more than 14 points with McClown.

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redlights's picture

December 22, 2011 at 08:48 pm

I'm even thinking 7-3. Can't beleive that the Pack won't win this one.

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66Mesa's picture

December 22, 2011 at 10:25 pm

Bet the Bears - I hate to say it but Finley gave them some great bulletin board material today. Nothing like hyping up their defense which has been their bright spot. See: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-1223-bits-bea...
And some people wonder why Finley get's hateed by Pack fans.

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MarkinMadison's picture

December 23, 2011 at 10:04 am

I've been critical of Finley all year on this site, and I didn't think that what he was quoted as saying was all that bad.

Packers 17-9, with one touchdown courtesy Charles Woodson. It will be ugly, but it will be a win.

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Oppy's picture

December 23, 2011 at 02:28 pm

Actually, this article you linked to and the quotes contained within continue to make me wonder why "Finley get's hateed on by Pack fans".

The kid says he expects the same level of play from himself as he had during their last meeting, then goes on to state his respect for Tillman's coverage.

I really don't see what the big deal is- except some Pack fans look for every reason to hate Finley. That's fine, it's your prerogative.

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FITZCORE1252's picture

December 22, 2011 at 10:39 pm

Pack wins, but bares and the points is the play.

25-13

GBP 4 LIFE

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eqfan592's picture

December 23, 2011 at 01:13 am

Maybe I'm alone in this, but I see the Packers just destroying the Bears in this one. They have GOT to be fired up after last weeks performance. Of course, if they come out flat again.......

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overkill's picture

December 23, 2011 at 11:40 pm

Hardly. Fur rugs all around this Christmas.

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KurtMc's picture

December 23, 2011 at 09:12 am

Bet the Pack. Unlike last year Da Bears had home field locked up, the Packers must win one (or San Fran lose/Tie one which is unlikely) for home field.

Between Da Bums & the Lions, this is the most winable game. Win this one, next weeks game is moot & rest a few key starters for 1/2 the game.

Personally, I am more worried about the Lions & their dirty play than the Bears at this point.

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Pack0909's picture

December 23, 2011 at 10:24 am

Lose this game and kiss goodbye any wins in the playoffs. The Packers may say there's "no formula" but if they can't prove that against the Bores then it stands for nothing. McCarthy and Rodgers need to kick start this team before things get bad.

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PackersRS's picture

December 23, 2011 at 10:38 am

Let's do like Sterling Sharpe:

Bears and over.

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FITZCORE1252's EVO's picture

December 24, 2011 at 12:29 am

If any of you enjoy laying some coin from time to time, I highly recommend watching the weekly show "the linemakers" on velocity, channel 281 on DTV. Very interesting show, comprised of the few guys who set the Vegas lines. Appointment TV if you're not looking to donate...

GBP 4 LIFE

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