5 reasons why the Packers will beat the Chiefs (and 1 reason why they might not)

The only game preview you need to read for the Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs.

It's hard to find negative things to say about the Kansas City Chiefs. They've got an atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium that rivals Lambeau Field, their fans seem cool, and Kansas City is home to some of the best barbeque in the United States.

(I also love the tomahawk chop. I know it's not politically correct to say that these days, but I can't help it. Something about a stadium full of people chanting and making an axe-wielding motion gets me fired up.)

But just because a franchise seems friendly and harmless, it doesn't mean I am not going to endlessly mock and ridicule that franchise on the day it plays the Packers, so let's get to it:

The fans of the Chiefs deserve better than the team that they get every season and currently have. Remember the Marty Schottenheimer years when Kansas City would always win 10-13 games, then get snuffed out early in the playoffs like an unfiltered Marlboro Red?

Not even a new coach could rid the team of its tendency to yak in the postseason. The 2003 Chiefs under Dick Vermeil went 13-3 and got wiped out in the divisional round.

Today, the Chiefs are led by Andy Reid who puts together outstanding gameplans on a week-to-week basis, then blows it all up by making no fewer than eight clock-management blunders each half. The Chiefs also have one of the best running backs and pass rushes in the NFL, but it doesn't matter because Alex Smith is their quarterback.

Yes, an NFL team still thinks it's a good idea to have Alex Smith as its starting quarterback, and that team is the Kansas City Chiefs.

I want to love the Kansas City Chiefs. Everything about the organization seems fun. Except, of course, for the actual team on the field.  

Here are five reasons why the Packers will beat the Chiefs on Monday night, continuing Kansas City's streak of being good, but nowhere near good enough:

Alex Smith
So many NFL games these days come down to a handful of plays in the fourth quarter. When that time comes in the fourth quarter on Monday night, do we really think Smith is capable of rising to the occasion and making a gamebreaking throw to beat the Packers? I don't think he is. Smith exists to not fumble the game away, not win the game when it matters most.

Rodgers' pocket movement
One area where the Chiefs have a clear advantage over Green Bay is outside pass rush. The tag team match of Justin Houston and Tamba Hali vs. David Bakhtiari and Don Barclay should resemble an old-school wrestling squash match where the Road Warriors destroy the Mulkey Brothers in about 20 seconds. But even if Houston and Hali beat up on Bakhtiari and Barclay, the saviness of Aaron Rodgers in the pocket covers up a good chunck of the pass rush advantage Kansas City enjoys. More often than not, Rodgers is able to evade pressure, but stay around the pocket, keep his eyes downfield and make a play. In other words, even if Hali and Houston execute their finishing move, Rodgers is capable of kicking out and extending the match.

Huh?
No Chiefs wide receiver has caught a touchdown pass since Jan. 4, 2014. How is that even possible? With today's namby-pampby pass defense rules in the NFL, I bet even I could catch a touchdown pass at least once every 16 games. I would require a forklift to get the necessary air required to complete my Lambeau Leap, but I would at least catch one touchdown in a calendar year.

Depth
Injuries stink. But the draft-and-develop Packers pride themselves on having plenty of talented young players in reserve for when the inevitable injury bug starts biting. With Morgan Burnett out, no doubt we'll see a good amount of Damarious Randall. Randall is a different player than Burnett, but I like putting hungry young players on the field in prime time early in the season. Let's see what they do when given the opportunity and step up. More often than not, the Packers young depth holds its own.

Home field
By now, we know all the numbers about Rodgers and the Packers recent run of success at Lambeau Field. Another advantage the Packers have at home isn't necessarily reflected in the numbers. With Barclay at right tackle, Rodgers' use of the snap count and cadence slows the pass rush down just enough to help Barclay out a bit. Rodgers' pre-snap barking also helps him decipher the defense and speed up his decision-making should Barclay's (or any o-lineman's) man break through.


If the Packers (for some reason) lose, this might be why:

Pure talent
Jamaal Charls, Travis Kelce, Justin Houston, Tamba Hali...the Chiefs have more than enough game-breaking players to compensate for Smith's ineptitude and Reid's clock-manaement blunders. Talent can overcome a lot of other deficiencies, and the Chiefs have the talent to cover up their weaknesses. 

 

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Comments (14)

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Bearmeat's picture

September 28, 2015 at 07:26 am

Write on. (I see what I did there ;)

I expect our CBs to dominate their WRs, and Kelce will get his. But as long as Charles doesn't run for a buck fiddy GB wins. ARod will break their back with several long passes in the 2nd half.

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dobber's picture

September 28, 2015 at 09:50 am

Kelce is remarkably inconsistent...he'll look like a monster for a game or a half, but then he'll have a series of drops, take a couple boneheaded penalties, or fumble (maybe more than once) the ball away. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have him in GB, but he's no Gronk.

Even if Charles runs for over 100, the Packers can still win because he'll get 90 of it on three runs, and have the rest of his runs go for 2 ypc.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 28, 2015 at 07:55 am

We are used to rock solid protection and production out of the 3 interior O-linemen. Donatari Poe (6 sacks last year), Jaye Howard forms an potentially epic battle with Linsley in pass pro and combo blocks from Lang and Sitton. It is harder to envision Rodgers' elusiveness and pocket awareness working if both tackles are having troubles.

TT has provided good depth for the most part. Just be aware that the depth might have already been tapped for this game. If Lacy or Adams are ineffective due to injury, I am counting on Ty Montgomery and even Janis to attack KC's DBs. We might have some issues if there are any in-game injuries, such as to Hyde or Randall.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

September 28, 2015 at 10:04 am

Don't hold your breath waiting on Janis to attack...

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Archie's picture

September 28, 2015 at 09:30 am

Excellent analysis Adam. I especially agree with ....."But even if Houston and Hali beat up on Bakhtiari and Barclay, the "savy" of Aaron Rodgers in the pocket covers up a good chunck of the pass rush advantage Kansas City enjoys." That will be the game within the game tonight. I remember back in 2010 when Raji kept referring to Rodgers as Houdini. He was right on. Last week was as good as it gets. KC should be madder than a hornet's nest after dropping last week's game to the Broncos on 5 TOs. If this game were in KC it would probably be a pick'em but it's at Lambeau and the Pack is favored by 6.5. I think GB's defense and ST will play well but not as good as last week vs SEA. Maybe the same for the O. Therefore I see this as a tight game and lower scoring than many think. GB to win a close one but KC covers seems about right to me.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 28, 2015 at 09:40 am

As a side note, I am a little concerned that Richardson and Ripkowski are listed as questionable. KC has some nice KR and PR in Davis and Taylor. Maybe Crosby can boot it out of the endzone tonight. Neal is questionable as well, but I think his loss can be overcome with more Elliott, Perry, and Mulumba

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Tundraboy's picture

September 28, 2015 at 11:13 am

Chiefs pose enough of a threat that unless we play fired up like last week this could be very very close. Maybe it's the letdown factor I am worried about and being banged up. At same time I feel we are going to come out and make a big statement on National television. Go Pack Go

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aussiepacker's picture

September 28, 2015 at 11:55 am

I can not believe that no KC wide reciever hasn't caught a TD pass in that long. In today's game that is an unbelievable stat. Watching my first game in the states tonight at the espn sports bar in LA. Pumped does not describe my feelings at the moment.

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Steve Cheez's picture

September 28, 2015 at 01:14 pm

Welcome, Aussie!

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Dan Stodola's picture

September 28, 2015 at 05:38 pm

Enjy the game in the US, but if you made it this far why not get to GB and Lambeau?

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aussiepacker's picture

September 28, 2015 at 11:57 pm

Am going to the san diego game. Just got to holiday myself there first with the family.

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Since'61's picture

September 28, 2015 at 12:02 pm

Five reasons why the Packers will be the Chiefs:
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Aaron Rodgers

Thanks, Since '61

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Evan's picture

September 28, 2015 at 01:31 pm

I'm convinced.

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Tundraboy's picture

September 28, 2015 at 04:12 pm

Just like last week!

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