Now or Later?
Some good back and forth yesterday on the Green Bay Packers needs in the future. There seemed to be quite a difference of opinion, especially when it comes to draft strategy. This begs the question: Do we draft for today or tomorrow?
Some good back and forth yesterday on the Green Bay Packers needs in the future. There seemed to be quite a difference of opinion, especially when it comes to draft strategy. This begs the question: Do we draft for today or tomorrow?
I might have had a different take last season, but this season I am going to stand firm and say you draft for the now, the right now. As I wrote earlier, (that's so Nagler) I think this season is our chance.
Honestly, even the pundits don't know how the league is going to turn out moving forward, and this really is the last time for awhile when you will be able to see the cards in your hands. The Packers are a playoff team, a few pieces away from a totally legitimate Super Bowl run, and have absolutely no idea what the landscape of the NFL will look like in 2011.
You draft for immediate production, plain and simple. You get the guy that helps you now.
Again, this team could theoretically take the field tomorrow and put on a pretty good show. You don't fill security positions before you draft playmakers.
If the team took the field tomorrow you would NEED: a punter. Now I'm definitely not saying go grab a first round punter, but you get my drift.
Inevitably someone will counter this analysis with either a left tackle or injury related retort. They would be right in that we definitely need a future at tackle and depth for injury purposes, but you absolutely cannot draft for the future right now. You need to take the biggest impact player on the board, a guy who can come in and get us even one more win.
Sorry folks, but there isn't going to be a tackle that fits that bill.
This is what the Packers draft board should look like right now:
Eric Berry
Joe Haden
Sergio Kindle
Taylor Mays
C.J. Spiller
Sean Weatherspoon
Jahvad Best
In my humble opinion, unless someone really does an Aaron Rodgers, those should be the only guys we are looking at. Now, you have the rest of the draft to add depth where it is needed. You also now have another playmaker from day one. You have an ultra deep class to work with so you absolutely have to take the most electrifying guy still on the board in round one.
When you're this close to winning it all (the Packers) and this close to the unknown (the NFL in the future) you go all in.
It's a now world folks, the later can wait.
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Comments (38)
March 09, 2010 at 09:40 am
Derrick Mays? Wow. I didn't know we could draft retired players.
Alex Tallitsch
March 09, 2010 at 09:45 am
Ha. Yeah, I've been doing that a lot lately.
March 09, 2010 at 09:45 am
Definitely draft for now. I'm with you, Alex that this may very well be the last season of the Packers being competitive.
March 09, 2010 at 02:52 pm
What you talkin' 'bout Willis? The future is bright son! We've got a franchise QB, we're already ahead of 20 teams out there.
GBP 4 LIFE
March 09, 2010 at 02:53 pm
I'll repost what I put below as the response to this:
I think they have a few years to be honest, but each year with out a salary cap is another year the small town team without a millionaire owner can't afford to pay out the money that the Daniel Schnieders and Jerry Jones of the world can. Sure, they'll sniff around the play-offs every now and then like the Brewers do, but mostly they'll just be W's for the Yankees of the NFL.
March 09, 2010 at 03:05 pm
And I'll repost what I put below:
Erik, this capless year is going to be a one and done deal. If the players and owners don't have a new agreement AFTER THIS SEASON, there will be no football in 2011. There will be no football AFTER 2011 until a new agreement is hammered out. It's not like they are going to keep playing without a cap, that's this year only.
You will not see anything like MLB. You may see a stoppage (highly doubt it), but a future of capless seasons isn't going to happen.
GBP 4 LIFE
March 09, 2010 at 09:28 pm
I hope you're right, good sir. I am a hopeless pessimist on a lot of things, so until it happens, I'm just going to continue being a negative ass-hole ;)
March 09, 2010 at 09:50 am
F.A is the best place for immediate impact.
March 09, 2010 at 09:58 am
You draft for players you see becoming great after 3 seasons.
You draft for later.
Alex Tallitsch
March 09, 2010 at 10:04 am
I can't help but think of Clay Matthews right now. Sidney Rice, a few others.
EDIT: I meant Percy Harvin. I don't have the time to think all of through today.
March 09, 2010 at 12:54 pm
Not sure I follow you Alex, on Clay yes, But Sidney just finished his 3rd year (1st productive one), Kind of exactly what Bacon said. Definitely not a first or even second year impact guy whatsoever.
March 09, 2010 at 12:59 pm
Sidney's #'s
2007 -31 rec for 396 yds 4 td's,
2008 - 15 rec for 141 yds 4 td's,
2009 - 83 rec for 1312 yds 8 td's.
March 09, 2010 at 02:47 pm
My guess would be Alex meant Percy Harvin.
Alex Tallitsch
March 09, 2010 at 04:18 pm
Word
March 09, 2010 at 04:39 pm
got it
March 09, 2010 at 10:48 am
I'd rather have Aaron Rouse back than Taylor freaking Mays. Terrible player.
Sergio Kindle takes plays off, A LOT.
Wheaterspoon is regarded as a 4-3 LB ONLY.
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My point about the draft is we can get very good OLB, CB, S, RB later in the draft.
The talent pool of the OL stops at the 1st round, maybe early second.
95% of what we get after that (you cannot say 100% about anything) won't be a franchise player in this league.
Donovan Warren, Perish Cox, Chad Jones, Reshad Jones, Ricky Sapp, Koa Misi, all guys that could develop into starters in the league, and could have an impact in this season, be as a situational pass rusher, or at dime and nickel packages...
Alex Tallitsch
March 09, 2010 at 10:58 am
Weatherspoon can run side to side, and has a nose for the ball. Randy Moss takes plays off too. There is no OL in the first round that can make a game changing impact this season period.
March 09, 2010 at 12:36 pm
So does Shaun Rodgers, JaMarcus Russell, Jamal Anderson... a big NO to a lazy player...
March 09, 2010 at 12:44 pm
So with you on Mays RS. I wouldn't touch him with Alex's...
March 09, 2010 at 02:04 pm
Yeah, but I absolutely hate Mays. Probably all I say about him is tarnished with hate. It may've been because I hyped him so much last year, and after seing him making stupid-ass play after stupid-ass play, I thought of myself as a terrible evaluator...
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Anyway, the point is Mays suck and shouldn't be drafted till the 3rd round, which is the round were you get those elite athletes that can't play football but you think you can coach them. Because Mays suck. TAYLOR Mays that is. Not the beloved Billy...
March 09, 2010 at 02:24 pm
Yeah, he really hurt himself going back for another year, probably a top 7 pick this time last year.
And yes, I once did a small mountain of blow with the late Billy Mays off of a couple of hookers asses in Reno. Then we tracked down Sham-Wow Vince and beat his ass. good times. RIP BM :-0
GBP 4 LIFE
March 09, 2010 at 02:29 pm
I'm really guilable, so I'm going to ask: For real???
March 09, 2010 at 02:32 pm
Yes, he really hurt himself going back to school........ Haha, NO. I would like to slap Sham-Wow Vince around though.
March 09, 2010 at 02:59 pm
I guess that does it: Taylor Mays sucks because... he sucks. I agree with you on certain stuff RS but the Aaron Rouse comparison is flat out wrong. I guess NYG picked up rolle because they thought Rouse was such winner.
And if you think Mays is that bad, he's obviously much more of an athlete than Rouse and he's proven much more capable in coverage and reading plays. Yes people have gotten hysterical over his unoffical 40-time but they've been equally fickle about his role in USC's terrible secondary in 2009. I wouldn't build my defense around the guy, but he'd fit in nicely with an already accomplished defense.
March 09, 2010 at 10:51 am
Erik- Just curious why you think we're not going to be competitive very much longer? They are one of the youngest teams in the league and have been pretty successful already. Many of the young players are under contract for a couple of years yet. This is one advantage of having fairly successful drafts. You get quaility young players under rookie contracts.
Anyways, you draft both ways. i.e. Raji and CM3 were need/impact players last year. TJ Lang, EDS, Quinn Johnson, Brad jones were "tomorrow" draftees. Now that many of the glaring holes are filled, you can start to be a little more picky when you draft. Maybe
reach a little for someone, or trade back to acquire more "depth" picks.
March 09, 2010 at 02:44 pm
I think they have a few years to be honest, but each year with out a salary cap is another year the small town team without a millionaire owner can't afford to pay out the money that the Daniel Schnieders and Jerry Jones of the world. Sure, they'll sniff around the play-offs every now and then like the Brewers do, but mostly they'll just be W's for the Yankees of the NFL.
March 09, 2010 at 02:59 pm
Erik, this capless year is going to be a one and done deal. If the players and owners don't have a new agreement AFTER THIS SEASON, there will be no football in 2011. There will be no football AFTER 2011 until a new agreement is hammered out. It's not like they are going to keep playing without a cap, that's this year only.
You will not see anything like MLB.
GBP 4 LIFE
March 10, 2010 at 11:22 am
They can reach an agreement that doesn't include a salary cap. I've heard a lot of owners (big and small market) don't want one.
There was an article a few months back that mistakingly implied that the gap in salaries between franchises won't skyrocket like the MLB. What this article ignores is that a salary floor will also be lifted. Teams are going to spend much more and teams are going to spend much less.
Although the NFL does have better revenue sharing than the MLB and there is no nfl team that has such an enourmous revenue pool like the Yankees (e.g. their TV channel).
March 10, 2010 at 11:47 am
Halo,
Theoretically they could come to such an agreement... they won't. There will be a CAP and a FLOOR... GUARANTEED (nope, have nothing concrete at this time to back that up besides common sense, just watch. Makes sense for both sides). What they have to iron out is basically the % to share between the owners and players (which they will, probably last minute). They'll also hopefully address the rookie salary scale.
GBP 4 LIFE
March 09, 2010 at 10:57 am
I would say that if you need to fill a hole, FA is the best way to do it. Maybe a little more expensive, but at least you know what you're getting. Rookies are too unpredictable outside of the top prospects.
March 09, 2010 at 11:29 am
I've always been a 'best player available' draft strategy guy as opposed to 'hole-filling'.
March 09, 2010 at 07:47 pm
Haha, "hole filling", haha.
Alex Tallitsch
March 09, 2010 at 08:14 pm
You said hole.
March 09, 2010 at 08:18 pm
Hey, William Gay, ex-Steelers, is available. Would he fill a hole?
March 09, 2010 at 12:40 pm
Alex, I do agree with you that we need to bring in impact players for the now (that's usually the goal in the draft, though teams do take a few "projects" here and there). That being said, I've got to say a thing or two about a couple of guys on your list ----
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO to Haden. The guy just ran a 4.57 and 4.60 in Indy, HUGE RED FLAG. Why do we need a slow CB with no return ability? Oh and he'd cost us a first. What scares me is that now he might drop to 23... he's not what we need.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO to Taylor Mays. Dude's got ZERO ball skills. In 4 years the guy had 5 picks, 3 his Freshman year. If we just want a big guy with the occasional jaw dropping hit, Rouse just got released.
Keep an eye out for Jerry Hughes, OLB - TCU. Really like the kid.
And Alex,
Drafting a LT could quite possibly be "drafting for immediate production". Do you feel confident that Cliffton's gonna finish the season, or even the first half of the season? I don't. Hope so, but...
GBP 4 LIFE
March 09, 2010 at 02:06 pm
I'm with you on Jerry Huges. IMHO the second best OLB in the draft, outside Graham. And a huge advantage over Graham, that he played a lot with his hands in the air, not on the ground...
March 09, 2010 at 02:29 pm
Yeah, Hughes would be my #1 if I had a say. Graham is going to command a 1st, there's a strong possibility that Hughes could be there in the 2nd, that'd be sweet.
GBP 4 LIFE
March 09, 2010 at 02:50 pm
No tackles in the first? Berry won't even get out of the top ten. While you're at it put Okung on there.
I agree on drafting for now, but you're not always looking for starters to contribute. Players can contribute big and small, special teams, offense, defense, first, second or third strings.