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Clausen Trade Down?

Clausen Trade Down?

Whether you love Ted Thompson, or hate Ted Thompson, one thing is clear, he plays the odds and loves getting more chances to succeed.

The Packers currently have eight draft picks (an additional compensatory 5th round selection).  If they don’t pick up additional picks it will tie for fewest players the Packers have added on draft day in the Ted Thompson era.

This article looks at the possibility that Clausen is on the board at the #23 spot and there is a team that wants to trade into the first round to select him.  Personally, I think that Tebow will still be sitting there, but I think that there is a 50% chance Clausen will experience a Rogers/Quinn/Brohm style fall through the first round.  There is also the unlikely possibility that the buzz surrounding Tebow is actually underrated and he is generating real desire around that time in the draft and teams are worried that he won’t be there in the second.  The article exams teams that have a QB need and who draft before the Packers.

The biggest tool to this article is the Walters draft chart.  According to the Walters draft the number #23 spot has a value of 760 points.  As a frame of reference the 1st pick has a value of 3,000 and the 224th pick has a value of 2.  However, because of the overall depth of this draft class, the value of 2nd-4th round picks maybe higher in this draft than the Walters draft chart currently reflects.

I eliminated the Panthers and the Jaguars immediately.  While they have QB needs, they both only have 6 draft picks and each of them is without a 1st or a 2nd round pick.  The Panthers don’t have a 1st round pick and would need to sacrifice their 2nd, 3rd, 4th to get to 690 Walters value.  Jimmy Clausen and two sixth rounders isn’t going to be a draft that the Panthers can feel good about given the amount of needs they currently have.  Jacksonville has  the 10th pick, and no second round selection, so unless they trade back from the 10th spot, they won’t have the ammunition to make a move up if the time comes.

The Raiders seem like another possibility.  The Raiders have real QB issues and an insane owner, so who knows what they will do.  Davis could have his next QB of the future if he decided to part with his 2nd and 3rd round picks valued at a total of 755.  The 8th pick, Clausen and five additional prospects maybe just what Al wants.

My two final teams are the teams that I feel will be most likely to trade back into the first round to grab Clausen.  The Bills and the Browns.  The Bills have nine draft picks (additional 6th and 7th).  So they could still take a playmaker with the 9th pick, trade their second, third and sixth round pick (total points 740.6) to move back up to the 23rd spot.  This would give them the 9th pick, Clausen and five third day guys.  The Browns also have a lot of ammo to move up as they have ten draft picks including three 3rds.  The Browns could get to a 755 value if they package their second with their high 3rd (71st overall).  This scenario would give them two first round selections and seven other draft picks.  The Browns could also make a package with a 758 by packaging their second, 3rd (92nd overall), 4th round and 6th round selection.  Even under this scenario they would still be adding eight new guys to the roster.

Trading back into the top of the second round could end in a great result for the Packers.  If the Packers have highly rated, OLB Sean Witherspoon from Missouri, there is a good chance the Pack could get him in the top 40 picks and use the additional 3rd round pick to get another quality player.

Not saying any of this will happen, but if Clausen is still on the board at 23, or teams start coveting Tebow, this article will at least give you something else to think about during that endless ten minutes.

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (11) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

Erik's picture

This has long been a draft scenario my brother and I have talked out. TT had no problem with no first round pick two years ago, and by most accounts the second tier talent pool in this draft is the deepest in a long time. So I definitely see another team trading up to get the Packer's 23rd pick to take Clausen if he manages to fall. And I think he has a very good chance to fall.

What do you think of the Chiefs trading up for him? Do they have the ammunition to do it? With a new sheriff in town that just so happens to have been Clausen's coach for the last three years, and uncertainty at QB, it seems very likely to me, but I don't follow the draft well enough to know for certain.

Globalpack's picture

The chiefs have two second round selections so they definetly have the ammo to get back into the first if they want to. I didn't include them on the list because matt cassel was given a big deal last year. Who knows, one thing bout the draft is you never know what the hell will happen.

PackersRS's picture

I'd gladly trade our #23 pick for any team's 2nd and later, if Clausen is there.

Just don't let him fall to the freaking vikings!

Asshalo's picture

This of course will depend on who falls to the Packers at 23 and if they think he is more valuable than what's being offered. Clausen doesn't have to be the X factor in all this either. Any team with an abundance of picks (like the Packers last year) may want to get in at this spot.

It's hard for me to believe the Vikings won't draft Clausen if he's available, which would make this theory very plausible. On a side note, this would definitely irritate Favre, which begs the question, "How far are the Vikings willing to go to coddle him?"

Asshalo's picture

Also, FYI there has only been one year where Thompson did not leave with more picks than he entered with and that was last year-- He's turn 40 picks entering the draft into 51

Bryce's picture

Yes, how far will the Vikings go? Hopefully pretty far...."the bigger they are the harder they fall"

Nate's picture
Bryce's picture

Are you drunk? Seifert's dumb and TT would never give up that much to draft a guy that he's going to have to pay big bucks for.

Paul W's picture

I kind of have a crazy feeling that TT is either going to trade up or he's going to trade back into the first like he did last year. I think he might feel that we have a good base and now we need some star talent. Maybe an RB like best and a CB?

Bryce's picture

He'll trade up....or he'll trade back....or....he'll stay the same.

FITZCORE1252's picture

I'm all for hopping back a bit, especially if it were only a few spots and we could accumulate another pick. But, and I quote "the value of 2nd-4th round picks maybe higher in this draft than the Walters draft chart currently reflects." You don't even have us getting 'book value' for our pick. Sure, value could be a bit higher this year, But, you don't trade back unless you are sure the value is there, hell you CLEARLY wanna come out ahead (if someone wants to trade up... THEY GOTTA PAY UP). If our 23rd is valued at 760, I would think Ted would want to see 800. That way if it blows up in his face, he'll at least have something to stand behind.

And I know you're probably just throwing a guy out there, but Weatherspoon (while being highly rated) is not the kind of OLB we need, he will go to a 4-3 D (I'd bet the farm on it). He's a sideline to sideline, tackling machine. Can't 'set the edge' and isn't much of a pass-rusher (We need someone who can do both).

Ever heard of a kid named J-E-R-R-Y?


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