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Why the Packers Will Beat Seattle and why They Might Not

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Why the Packers Will Beat Seattle and why They Might Not

Winning seems to heal a lot of things and because of the Green Bay Packers win last Sunday over the Miami Dolphins, things seem a lot better than they did a week ago. 

However, that feeling won't last long if the Packers can't head to Seattle and get a win on Thursday Night Football.

Of course, this game means a lot to the Seahawks too. Seattle is 4-5 after a tough loss at the Rams last week and both Seattle and Green Bay are trying to stay in the mix in the NFC wildcard race. The Packers still have life in their division race, however, that's not the case for Seattle, which only has a hope of a wildcard.

Right now, the Packers are one game behind Minnesota for the last playoff spot in the NFC and Seattle is 1.5 games behind. So this is a must-win game for them, probably even more than the Packers, who play at the Vikings next week. The reality though, is that both teams are fighting for their playoff lives and with four losses already, Green Bay can't afford more than one or two more, so every game is critical.

It's always fun when Seattle and Green Bay get together and here is look at why the Packers might win, as well as why they might not.

Why Green Bay Might win:

Normally, Aaron Rodgers is the reason why the Packers have a chance against anyone, but if Green Bay is going to beat Seattle tonight, Aaron Jones might need to be the man.

Jones really was spectacular against the Dolphins last week, carrying the ball 15 times for 145 yards. He ripped off a 67-yard run and against a Seattle defense that is allowing five yards per carry, he might be the Packers best offensive threat.

Seattle doesn't have the Legion of Boom anymore, but the Seahawks pass defense has still allowed just 14 touchdowns and is seventh in passing yards allowed. Seattle also had 10 interceptions on defense. 

Certainly, Rodgers can put up big numbers against anybody and that goes for Davante Adams too. But the game will be so much easier for Green Bay if Jones gets 15-20 touches. For one, that means he is being productive and two, it would mean that Mike McCarthy is using him properly. Jones should be touching the ball 20 times per game no matter what and if he touches it that many times against the Seahawks, Green Bay will have a better chance to win.

The other reason why you have to like the Packers chances tonight is the Seattle offense. Russell Wilson has done some great things in the NFL, but he has struggled against Green Bay. During the regular season, he is 2-3 against the Packers and has just seven touchdown passes compared to six interceptions. 

All three of those wins did come at Lambeau, yet even when Wilson has beaten the Packers, it hasn't really been pretty. We all know the Fail Mary game and the NFC championship, there was also the season opener back in 2014. With all that in mind though, only Tampa Bay has held Wilson to a lower passer rating in his career and the Packers are one of just two teams in which Wilson has a passer rating of 80 or below. Green Bay is also the only NFC team that Wilson has a losing record against in the regular season.

Why Seattle might win

Seattle might win because the game is in Seattle and weird things happen to Green Bay there. The Packers outplayed the Seahawks in 2012 and 2014 and still found a way to lose the game. Beyond that, this current Packers team has been horrendous on the road.

Yes, the Packers played competitive games against both the Rams and the Patriots, yet this team still hasn't found a way to win a game away from the home. The defense has been a big part of that and even though it played well in spots, the Packers have given up at least 29 points in all four road losses. 

On top of that, Green Bay has made a lot of mistakes. Jones fumbled against New England; Ty Montgomery fumbled away the game against the Rams; Mason Crosby missed a million field goals against the Lions and at the Redskins, the whole team laid an egg, including Rodgers.

There are a lot of reasons why Green Bay could win this game, but until the Packers prove they can win on the road, it's hard to believe they will actually do it. 

__________________________

Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (24) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

Rick F's picture

If they are the most physical team, aggressive and most complete offense I think they can win tonight. Defense must stop the run and keep Wilson in the pocket and force contested throws and win the 50/50 balls.

dblbogey's picture

Don't forget that pad level.

The TKstinator's picture

And more rushing attempts.
It’s more about the attempts than the yards.

So I guess if GB has 40 attempts for like, 20 yards, that’s the “target”.
Gotta stack that success.

(My dear brethren, and sistren,
I must confess that my usual light hearted approach to this whole GB football thing has been temporarily suspended to make the comments above, which I admit are rather on the bitchy side. Just feeling a little edgy lately, and although a bit out of character, that shtick still amuses me to an extent. So, please, rock on.)

The TKstinator's picture

Or not.
Mad respect, yo.

LeotisHarris's picture

I believe with those sequential comments you stacked successes there, buddy. Way to scaffold greatness! You've earned an opportunity to compete and made the most of it.

There is no joy in this game for me. It feels like a freaking Vikings game. I know replays of the atrocities are going to trigger flashbacks. Those wounds are still easily ripped open. I hate the Seahawks and Pete Carroll.

Please do not suck tonight, Packers. Improve. Play hard. Maybe even win?

Dash Riprock's picture

I see a young defense on the rise. I see an old passing offense finally willing to give rushing the ball a chance. I see a horrible special teams that just got a top punt and kickoff returner back. It's all coming together. I can feel it in the air tonight. Packers win 35-28.

The TKstinator's picture

So can Phil Collins.

dobber's picture

Honestly--after NE and LA, I expect a loss but am hoping for a win. Seattle 24, Packers 17.

Rak47's picture

I was shocked Dobber as I was watching some video on NFL site and they have a video giving each teams percentage chance of making the playoffs this year. I was stunned that they gave the Packers a 61% chance which was higher than what they gave Chicago at 59%, the Queens at 51% and the Panthers at 52%, the Skins at 49%, the Bengals at 41% and the Titans at 37%. All teams with better records than the Packers. The video is entitled Game Theory: Week 11 playoff percentages. They had the Seahawks with a 25% chance to make the playoffs btw. There's no direct link to it exclusively as it was one of several videos on the page however this is the page I found it on for anyone interested in watching it, it was in the second video box screen just below the top one. www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000988159/article/bell-avoids-big-bens-tex...

EddieLeeIvory's picture

I saw it too.
Surprising.
Fuzzy Math IMO.

Lare's picture

Everyone is expecting the Packers to run Jones against the Seahawks porous run defense. My guess is that McCarthy is going to try to fool everyone by having Jones run only 5 or 6 times and having Rodgers throw 50 passes, most of which are 30-40 yards downfield.

Slim11's picture

I hope we're both wrong but I find myself agreeing with you. If GB goes up by 10, I fully expect MM to go into prevent offense...again!

The TKstinator's picture

Argh.

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

I spell it with two aitches. I don't really care at all, I just wanted to write aitch.

Samson's picture

Have little idea how this game will go. -- "On the road again" is bothersome. -- The Pack seem a bit disjointed (so far) away from Lambeau. --- Too much positivity coming from Packers fans the last 3 days. Beating the Dolphins in GB is no 'great' turnaround as some like to think. --- Regardless, I'm thinking the Pack pulls this one out on a 4th quarter TO by the Hawks.

The TKstinator's picture

How about a pick 6 rather than a pick and slide down safely?

LeotisHarris's picture

Oh, fuck. Peppers signaling "no mas" - flashbacks starting...

The TKstinator's picture

Lightning striking twice...nah.

EddieLeeIvory's picture

McCarthy is mentally weak and the team follows suit....Packers on the road lose to everyone away from Lambeau. Good teams, ok teams, bad teams, we find a way to lose.

Seachickens 27
Packers 23

Hope I'm wrong.

Norm's picture

Yep, you were wrong. Don't underestimate the Pack like this again!

mrj007's picture

15 to 13 Packers. I am banking on a turnover and good def. Also expecting A Rod to throw 5 into the front row and Graham to do nothing. Perhaps penalties will not be so mucj tonight.

holmesmd's picture

Rodgers was terrible on 3rd down. Every team in the league can pick up a 5 yd slant except GB. No excuses but once again a terrible effort in the 4th quarter has prevented GB from making the playoffs. Out of it mi season. Good job guys

cpabandit's picture

Rodgers can't complete a 5 yard pass with the game on the line and instead bounces it to the receiver. He misses too many open receivers. Why can't he get rid of the ball with more than a half second left on the clock?

GeorgiaCheesehead's picture

Wasted timeouts, poor ST play, no discipline. Gave up on AJ in 2nd half. Not knowing when to challenge, not enough balls to go for it on 4th down , instead gives the back to Seattle when our D is depleted and gassed. So how is MM a good HC?

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