Why Packers will beat Kansas City and Why They Might Not

Coming into the season, it would have been hard to predict that the Green Bay Packers were going to be 6-1.

There were reasons for optimism. The defense added an influx of talent and the offense, which always had talent, was going to find a fresh approach.

It took time, but it's all starting to come together. The running game has been impressive and Aaron Jones has stepped up in a big way withouth Davante Adams.

Others have stepped up too, including Aaron Rodgers who accounted for six touchdowns, throwing five, while also posting a perfect passer rating for the first time in his career.

I thought that was the most surprising statisitic from last week -- that Rodgers had never had a perfect game.

That Raiders game was a gem and the growth of MVS, Jamaal Williams and even Jimmy Graham in the last two weeks has been impressive.

I was ready to put a fork in Graham's career but has looked a little more spry the past two weeks, so maybe keeping wasn't so bad after all.

At any rate, there are a lot of positives going into the Chiefs game and one thing might be not having to face Patrick Mahomes.

Matt Moore is a good backup though. A very capable one and also one that has Tyeek Hill at wide receiver, Travis Kelce at tight and veterans Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy. 

That's a lot of talent to deal with and in the NFL, winning on the road is never easy so here why the Packers might win and why they might not.

Why Green Bay might win

Aaron Rodgers is a good place to start. He is completing 64.8 of his passes, averaging 288 yards per game and has 13 touchdown passes compared to two interceptions.

He couldn't play any bettter than he did last week and the most impressive thing is that he did it with some new weapons. MVS caught a 73-yard touchdown, a ton of other guys have started catching passes  and when Adams does return, the offense will be better.

The running game has also been huge and like in Dallas, I'd expect the Packers to lean heavily on it. 

Kansas City is 29th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and with the two-headed tandem of Jones and Williams, Green Bay should look to take advantage of that.

The Chiefs pass defense is much better ranking ninth in yards allowed and 10th in interceptions. 

Defensively, the Smiths have been as productive as any pass-rush duo in the league and against Moore, a non-mobile quarterback, they have to be licking their chops. 

The Chiefs have good skill guys but Jaire Alexander and Kevin King, as well as others, at least give the Packers a chance to limit big plays in the passing game.

Why Green Bay might lose

Winning away from home is hard in the NFL especially against a solid team like KC.

Yes, the Chiefs aren't the same with Mahomes, but they have more than enough talent to win. 

The defense has been great at putting pressure on the quarterback and protecting Rodgers will be key. 

Rodgers has shown good patience in the offense the past few weeks and seems to be letting things come to him. It's a great way to play and if he can continue that, it will bode well for the Packers.

But KC is a distruptive team and their offense offers unqiue challenges. 

Green Bay has the advantage without Mahomes, but if it sleeps on the Chiefs at all, it wouldn't be shocking to see a loss.

I'm still waiting to see if this Packers team is human and Sunday night will give us a better glimpse. 

Beating good teams on the road is hard and that's why the Packers could lose, because even without Mahomes this is a good Chiefs team with a frightening ability to make big plays. 

 

__________________________

Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Comments (18)

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Lphill's picture

October 27, 2019 at 07:53 am

Packers have Aaron Rodgers and the chiefs don’t. This is why the Pack will win.

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stockholder's picture

October 27, 2019 at 09:31 am

Arron Rodgers protecting the ball is a must. But what has to change, is the defense in the middle of the field. The packers cannot let it go undefended. Seal it off! The safeties should be the master plan to do it. The priorities are obvious. Good defense, protect Rodgers, and don't turn the ball over.

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Tarynfor12's picture

October 27, 2019 at 10:17 am

As I said before seasons start, the Packers are a 9 win team and if they can win a couple of games when the better teams(preseason picked as better) are having issues we get 11 or more.

KC is one of those teams,as were Philly and Dal and maybe Oak, and we took 2 of those games. We now can get KC with their backup and unless we do what has been a regular habit and a situation that hasn't come into play this season...making a backup look like a HOF quarterback,we should win.

Although Matt Moore has had some highlight games in his career and shouldn't be totally discarded, he is an aged backup and GB needs to show it has shed itself of a defensive funk that was a stain for many seasons that allowed the lesser of QB's to shine brighter than our HOF QB, too many times.

A win here and then playing SD next week, who are gasping and likely completely done after this week vs the Bears, the hard stretch in the GB schedule comes out looking like a lamb from the lion it was believed and the path to the SB in now clearer and easier where only an internal explosion will likely hinder it.

OH, have I said was optimistic about this season and so much more than I was in preseason.

GB 31-20

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Samson's picture

October 27, 2019 at 12:08 pm

Love how you've walked back all your preseason prognostications... Looking forward to how you'll explain yourself when GB secures a #1 or #2 NFC seed with a nice run in the playoffs... Regardless, it's nice to see you've moved from the dark into the light.

Maybe you should discuss your strategy with your "negative nelly" partner, OS.

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Tarynfor12's picture

October 27, 2019 at 10:52 am

Excuse me, but my preseason talk was and still is what I've been saying.
This was a team that made me more optimistic in years, they will win 9 games and more if things go wrong for some teams when we play and prior to last weeks game,I copied a tweet I made how a win against Oak and KC,especially since Mahomes was hurt would put GB as the favorite for the NFCC and SB entrant.

Replying to
@CoryJennerjohn
If they can beat KC in KC, whether with or without Mahomes, there is no way this team cannot be considered the favorite to be the SB entrant from the NFC....Yes I said it...the one most accused of being negative when GB dictated in negativity.

What in my above statement is different except you trying to ignore that when I spoke of GB being bad I was right and prior to this seasons start, I said they looked more viable in a few years, where I'm right again. This is what comes from NOT being blind optimistic but a realist...we see things clearer because we speak to what is actually seen and not purely hoped for.

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Samson's picture

October 27, 2019 at 12:10 pm

Hey, no problem... Like I said above... "It's nice to see you've moved from the dark into the light."

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Spock's picture

October 27, 2019 at 10:42 am

Taryn, Nice to see you still being optimistic! You make a good point, "... unless we do what has been a regular habit and a situation that hasn't come into play this season...making a backup look like a HOF quarterback,we should win." THIS season we've seen the Defense playing some of their best in the Red Zone. Pettine may have some issues with his guys defending TE's and some (not unexpected) confusion with his young guys, but we've not seen them take any QB lightly. This week I expect to see a lot more pressure and sacks as last week was unusual for the lack of sacks (The Raiders OL played very, very well). Playing in a noisy stadium will be tough but the Packers have already won on the road (TWICE) and I think the running game and the PASSES to RB's will carry this game. Aaron Jones is catching the ball (except for that one dropped TD) and running routes like a WR. Hey, maybe there will be a Ty Montgomery 'controversy' about his jersey number, lol.

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Qoojo's picture

October 27, 2019 at 10:25 am

1. Turnovers
2. If KC takes advantage of wide open WRs, unlike Raiders
3. KC's left side OL replacements vs the Smiths

Besides points scored, every game is first about turnovers. Unlike the Raiders, I think KC will or can take advantage of wide open WRs, so it's up to the Smiths to stop that and limit the time to throw.

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Samson's picture

October 27, 2019 at 10:28 am

AR doesn't have to have a perfect QB rating to tear up the KC "D"... GB needs to strongly establish the run & then uncork a potent passing attack. --- If GB wins the TO battle by +2 or so, KC may not be able to stay in this game. ---- The Packer "D" needs to dominate with more 3 & outs... Having Savage back will help. -- GB 27 -- KC 17.

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Lphill's picture

October 27, 2019 at 11:26 am

Yes we need the Smith’s to show up today, the Chiefs will be attacking the middle of the field with quick throws , need to make Moore uncomfortable as much as possible. Hopefully Savage is a go today.

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Lare's picture

October 27, 2019 at 12:27 pm

Jones & Williams should be able to carry the Packers to victory against the 29th ranked rushing defense.

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ALexHWilliamson21's picture

October 27, 2019 at 01:07 pm

Last week I joined NFLSPORTSTV .com . It's the cheapest online option on web this year. Just $29/yearly and you can watch any Tv channel Including NFL this year.
I am sure you will watch that game online from NFLSPORTSTV .com . You can find this website by Google.

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dblbogey's picture

October 27, 2019 at 02:20 pm

3 comments, each the same cut and paste. You need to pay if you want to advertise your crap here.

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Norm's picture

October 27, 2019 at 01:42 pm

Our defense struggles mightily against good TE's. Travis Kelce is one of the best, if not the best, TE in the game. Solve that problem and we win easily. If we can't solve that, even with a backup QB throwing to him, it will be a struggle.

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flackcatcher's picture

October 27, 2019 at 03:01 pm

I agree with Spock and Taryn on tonight's game. KC is such a funky team, a fan never knows which KC shows up. The smart discipline football playing, or the mad bombers score last wins team. Like Mike McCarthy, Andy Reid thinks defense is like castor oil, or carrots (pick something you hate, but you know is good for you) or diet and exercise. KC at home has laid some real stinkers in recent years, so they can be had. That said: On with the short Flacky..... Both teams, injuries will tell the tale tonight. As always, who will step forward and tilt the field tonight. Normally the nod goes to the home team, but the Packers have shown themselves to be a mentally tough group, I cannot give the edge to the Chiefs at home. Offense: This game will either go one of two ways. High scoring with the last team who has the ball wins. Or a turnover fest with a defense breaking an offense early, and it becomes air Moore or air Rodgers. (Too be honest, will happen anyway. 'Defense. I NEED NO STINKIN DEFENSE' Andy (writ large) Reid.) But, BUT Flacky, what about the running game.......(pause) heh, heh, heh heh HAH HAH HAH HAH you serious. This is the NFL not the Big Ten. Run to daylight is optional, this is a passing league, we all knows what that means tonight. Air Rodgers Flies Again..... Defense: Strength vs Strength. Chiefs will pass to run, it's their strength regardless of who's under center. Speed kills, and KC has a lot of it in the WR slots and TE positions. Green Bay will be stressed at the boundary and slots. Packers may play some cover 2 to keep the speedy Chiefs in front of them. For Pettine, this not about sacks, but pressures and timing. Disrupt KC timing (The Smiths) and their short game goes down, and their offense becomes one dimensional. Easier said than done. Packers will run to pass. Rodgers is deadly in play action, but the key will be the weak side run plays. How Bakh and Jenkins hold up in the run game will determine how much pressure Rodgers will see on 5-7 step drops. KC will account for Rodgers roll to the right on play action. What adjustments MLF makes in play calls might be the difference in tonight game. Kickers: JK Scott is playing at an all pro level, and Mason Crosby is not too far behind. For the Packers to win both must keep putting the ball high and deep. Tough in cold moist air, but necessary for tonight. Special Teams: I Pray For Their success. Who Wins: Tough call. Two teams pushing into going to the playoffs. KC is in the AFC, they get room to breathe. Packers is in the NFC, in the toughest division in all of professional footfall. With the Vikings one step behind, they cannot afford even one or two loses to date. Packers WIN! High scoring game by 10 points.... Flacky does victory dance. (Be glad you won't see it.... :-) NUTS! Not short at all...(heh heh heh)

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Tarynfor12's picture

October 27, 2019 at 05:06 pm

That's what reality sounds like when it hits the face of the blind optimists. Next week,they're be back promoting their blindness again via false optimism.

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Samson's picture

October 27, 2019 at 07:12 pm

Ref your infatuation with with "blind optimism".
Blind optimism is extremely subjective & is usually based only on those who think they can set the standards...
I've picked the Pack this season so far to win every game... so far I'm 6-1.... I will pick them to win all season long & I'll be correct 11 or 12 or more times total.

My blind optimism has been based on Gute, MLF, AR, Smith, Smith, Turner, Amos, Savage, Gary, etc. --- What has your previous blind pessimism been based on? ... Face it, you're a fan who blows in the wind.

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