Why Packers will beat Carolina and Why They Might Not

Last week, the Green Bay Packers struggled mightly against the San Diego Chargers. Literally nothing seemed to go right in a 26-11 defeat.

The Packers allowed San Diego to rack up more than 400 yards of total offense, while not even reaching 200 yards on their own. 

It wasn't just a loss, it was a beatdown and hopefully, the Packers have learned from it, because 5-3 Carolina is legit.

Green Bay is ranked 5th in the NFL in strength of schedule, yet the Panthers are 11th and after dropping the first two games of the season, they have won five of six with the only loss coming to San Francisco.

Kyle Allen has taken over at quarterback for the Panthers and even though he hasn't been spectacular, he's been solid. He's completing 60 percent of his passes, with nine touchdowns and four interceptions.

He also leads a passing attack that has started to flourish, not just with Christian McCaffrey catching the ball, but D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel and Greg Olsen. 

Those are some fast, big and physical targets. Along with McCaffrey, covering those guys will be a handful for the Green Bay defense, which has struggled recently.

While Green Bay is still a solid 11th in points allowed, it has plummeted to 27th in yards allowed. It has also allowed at least 243 yards passing in five straight games, which doesn't bode well.

This is a huge game, with big-time playoff implications. It will also show us just how well this club will respond to adversity, so here's a look at why the Packers will win and why they might not.

Why the will win

If this Packers team is for real and I believe that they are, they will win this game. Aaron Rodgers will sort of will them too. That's what he used to do in the old days and I expect to see that again.

Obviously, he can't do it alone. The defense will need to improve and find some way to reign in McCaffrey, which is a tall task. Green Bay's own ground game will need to get going against a tough front seven. 

After running the ball and featuring the backs so well offensively, the Packers just got pushed around a week ago and rushed for only 45 yards. It was an embarassing effort.

But hey, sometimes in the NFL, you get embarassed. It's just one game. What matters is how you respond and that's what we will learn Sunday at Lambeau.

It's a big challenge for head coach Matt LaFleur and he will be facing Ron Rivera, who keeps finding ways to win games. 

As much talent as the Panthers have on offense, Green Bay has weapons too in Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, Davante Adams and MVS. 

It also has the ultimate advantage in Rodgers. He's still the X-factor. These teams feel evenly matched and he's the guy who can be the tiebreaker. 

Rodgers has to put together an MVP performance and if he does that, Green Bay will win. If not, the prospects are 50/50, if not worse.

Why Green Bay might lose 

The recent trend defensively has been a real concern and this game features things the Packers have always had trouble with, staritng with McCaffrey but also with the speed at wide recevier and Olsen at tight end.

It will be interesting to see how the Packers decide to defend Olsen and McCaffrey and how many resources are devoted in the secondary to trying to stop them.

As much as coverage will matter, the truth is that the Packers simply have to get to Allen. The pass rush has to get home and Green Bay, at the very least, has to contain McCaffrey running the ball.

If McCaffrey has one of those games where he is has a bunch of rushing and receiving yards, Green Bay is going to be in trouble and it needs a win. 

This game is a turning point. A loss here and Green Bay still is right in the thick of the NFC North and wildcard race, but it would make getting a first-round bye very difficult.

More than that, it's about whether the Packers can respond to adversity and beat a quality opponent.

The Panthers run defense has been awful and their pass defense, in part because of that, is ranked in the top 10. Yet, three of the Panthers last four oppnents have thrown for over 300, so Rodgers should be licking his chops.

A fast start will be key and if we see Rodgers and the offense roar out of the gates, I'd feel confident in a win. 

__________________________

Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Comments (12)

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Bearmeat's picture

November 10, 2019 at 06:28 am

I am absolutely worried about the defense. Since week 3, this D has been very-Capers-from-2011-to-2017-like. They hemorrhage explosive plays, they can't keep opposing runs under 4 ypc, they can't get turnovers. They only thing they've done well is to keep teams to field goals and out of the end zone. I'm also holding my breath every time we punt or return a kick. Our special teams are awful. Again. Murphy and Ball need to be held accountable for not paying Rizzo whatever the hell he wanted.

I'm not worried about the offense. Other than the clunker last week, they've improved week after week. You have to think that the OL just had a really bad day at the office.

As Rodgers has said, right now this is a good team. They'll make the playoffs. But are they a great one? No. Great ones win games like this comfortably. I think they'll win, but it will be very close.

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porupack's picture

November 10, 2019 at 06:38 am

Comfortable win 35-20

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4zone's picture

November 10, 2019 at 07:14 am

Packer's D is trending bad. Their offense is Jekyll and Hyde. It still hasn't come together for them and teams are learning how to attack. Panthers have the weapons to hit us in our weak spots. It will all come down to which Packer team shows up today. It has been a long time since I sensed a real driving hunger in Green Bay. If last week's shed whoopin instigated a new attitude of focused determination, I would enjoy watching that team take it to the house. If not, its gonna be a long and painful road ahead.

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Slim11's picture

November 10, 2019 at 12:45 pm

I am also concerned for some of the same reasons. GB has to consider some additional factors.

As you said, now there is tape out there and other teams are learning how to attack/defend against MLF's system. Combine this with Rivera's background as a defense-minded coach, I believe the Panthers are a very well prepared team coming into this game.

The best defense against McCaffery is a ball-control, move-the-chains offensive game plan. If AR zeroes in on Davante Adams, the Packers are in trouble. A short-medium range passing attack incorporating Adams, MVS, Lazard, Graham and all three RBs is key.

BTW, I was in San Diego when GB was playing the Chargers and is was absolutely beautiful there. I can understand the younger players getting distracted. I don't like it, but understand how they could have let down. Getting out there earlier than necessary wasn't a good decision.

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Lphill's picture

November 10, 2019 at 07:53 am

Let our star D backs ( as they think) play man coverage and play both safeties in the box. It’s the only way.

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MarkinMadison's picture

November 10, 2019 at 08:20 am

The real challenge for any team is when they face a great QB. Rivers is a great QB. I'm more dumbfounded by the offensive performance last week than anything else. Hopefully they self-corrected because MLF doesn't strike me as a hard-nosed Bill Belichick kind of guy. And holy smokes why the hell are special teams so bad? I like the Packers to get some turnovers from Allen and make this game look easy, but I'd be more confident in that prediction if Alexander & Amos were healthy. Packers 31-28.

3 points
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murf7777's picture

November 10, 2019 at 08:37 am

My prediction....The game will be close till mid to late 3rd quarter. Our O will get back on track like the prior 6 games from last week, control the clock, take an early lead and the D will create the needed TO for a 31-17 win. Maybe the first (I think) D touchdown happens in-this game as well.

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mrtundra's picture

November 10, 2019 at 09:22 am

A win for the Pack going into their bye week would be huge. I see them righting the defensive side of the ship and patching together the O Line, just enough, for a victory against the Panthers. Packers 28, Panthers 24.

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19kurt's picture

November 10, 2019 at 10:18 am

Take a look at Alexanders lean and feet in the photo above....tell me he's not thinking "let me get out of Ekeler's way before he flattens me" "I'll let Martinez handle this one" What's he going to do when McCaffrey is bearing down on him?

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ALLGASNOBRAKES's picture

November 10, 2019 at 10:27 am

Yes I'm a HOMMER to the 10th degree and YES I sometimes comment with my heart opposed to reality (Ok, a lot) BUT I also believe the Packers come out and POUND the hell out of Carolina. I believe they'll run the ball...A LOT against a team that's been run on pretty consistently all season. I also think the O-Line will play like they did the previous 4 weeks they did before Adams came back. They were embarrassed in LA and will want to get back to playing at their regular high level.

Rodgers CAN'T start FORCING the ball to Adams again just because he's on the field. This offense was pretty friggen great when Adams was out. Use EVERYBODY, just like when Adams was out and work Adams into what was working from there. I think Rodgers learned from last week...At least I hope he did.

The Defense is going to give up some yards but I'd expect Pettine to get back to using more of those well-timed blitzes we saw so much of last season. Allen is nothing special but he can manage a game. Get the Panthers to 3rd and 7 and start sending the blitz. I sure would like to see Gary used on some stunts and blitzes to take better advantage of that athleticism.

Last...REVENGE... Carolina has beat the Packers the last 2 games they've played. The last one knocking the Packers out of the Playoffs after Rodgers return from a broken CB. It the Packers turn to put a damper on the Panthers playoff chances.

Packers ROLL... 38-17

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ricky's picture

November 10, 2019 at 11:21 am

Expect the Panthers to use McCaffrey as a decoy early on. Do play action, when the defense commits to stuffing him, throw a quick pass to the TE or WR and let them get some YAC. Rinse and repeat. Then do an end around with McCaffrey starting out one way, and a WR going the other as the Packers defense over pursues. In short, yes, limiting McCaffrey is important. But this reminds me too much of the Denver SB, when the entire defense was over influenced by where Terrell Davis was going. Don't concentrate on one guy, because the other ten on the field are also doing something while you're not paying attention to them.

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4thand1's picture

November 10, 2019 at 11:38 am

After last week there's only one way to go ,up. If they play like that again then f em, it's hunting season. Let's have a good ol fashioned ass-kicking, 37-14........................ GOPACKGO.

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