Why Packers will beat Bears and why they might not

Why the Packers will win the season opener tonight and why they might not. 

In the National Football League there are few rivalries like the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears. 

In fact, it's safe to there aren't any. It's unique and while it may not be as fierce as Packers vs Vikings, the hatred runs deep.

For years, Chicago fans had every reason to hate the Packers, especially after watching Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers torment them for years. 

Rodgers did it again in last season's opener engineering an incredible comeback capped by a Randall Cobb touchdown. Unfortunately for Green Bay, that was the best moment of the season.

It only went downhill from there. 

But with a new head coach in Matt LaFleur, there is optimism surrounding the Packers. Mike Pettine is back to run the defense and with the addition of Adrian Amos and pass rushers like Rashan Gary, Preston Smith and Zadarius Smith, the defense should have everything it needs to be successful.

The biggest question might be how Aaron Rodgers will function in the new offense. If he has fun and excels in the new system, the sky is the limit for this team.

But if he mopes around and goes through the motions as he did in 2018, the Packers will have zero shot at Super Bowl contention.

My train of thought for tonight is similar and that's the perfect transition to why the Packers might win and why they might not.

Why Green Bay will win

It's easy to say Aaron Rodgers is the reason why the Packers will win but on a Thursday night in Chicago to open the season, it's true. 

The defense is going to be better but it's not good enough to win this game by itself. Aaron Jones is a breakout candidate if he finally gets the ball and LaFleur seems like he can finally address the lack of touches.

The offensive line is in better shape than last season and the receivers are a question mark just like they were a year ago. The offense might be different but the talent hasn't drastically upgraded.

The solution is better coaching. LaFleur needs to get more out of Rodgers, guys like Aaron Jones and everyone else. Mike McCarthy, for all his success, stunk at this last season. That's why he's unemployed.

Rodgers didn't help though. He didn't play with passion and he certainly didn't look like a two-time MVP. He looked more like someone on his last legs.

Notice how I said looked. I don't think Rodgers is on the back nine. If he wants to be great, he still can be. And if he's great tonight, Green Bay will win the game. I guarantee it. 

Why the Bears will win

The problem with my theory is that being great against Chicago is easier said than done. 

Khalil Mack might be the best overall player in the NFL and he has a bunch of talented pass rushers around him.

Chicago will miss Adrian Amos, who went to Green Bay and was replaced by Ha Ha Clinton-Dix but I guess we'll see how much.

The biggest loss for the Bears is the loss of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. He had success against Rodgers with the 49ers and Bears. Just saying.

Last year was a great year for Chicago and Mitch Trubisky will be looking to take that next step. But I still don't think he's better than Rodgers but if he outplays Aaron tonight, his team should win.

The defense will have to carry the day for the Bears. I don't see Chicago's offense scoring a ton of points tonight.

It will be about mistake-free football. When Rodgers is at his best, he usually doesn't give the ball away and if that happens, Green Bay will be in good shape.

But if the Bears force turnovers, get to Rodgers and establish dominance on the ground, they can follow the same recipe they used last season to grind the Packers into a loss.

Either way, I can't wait. The Green Bay Packers are back. Go Pack Go. 

__________________________

Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Comments (96)

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Hematite's picture

September 05, 2019 at 05:20 am

Packers-Bears games have been generally close and not particularly well played over the years.
I expect that it will be no different tonight.
Packers 7, Bears 6.

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ollie418's picture

September 05, 2019 at 08:00 am

No way, 7 to 6. Wake up

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Leatherhead's picture

September 05, 2019 at 02:31 pm

I’ve seen Packer/Bear games that were 6-6 at the end of regulation. At the end of overtime, the Packers lined up for a chip shot FG. Blocked. Right back into the arms of Chester Marcol who ran to his left for the winning TD.

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dobber's picture

September 05, 2019 at 04:41 pm

That was a game that made a 'legend'. Remember it well!

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Turophile's picture

September 05, 2019 at 05:18 pm

@Hematite. Can't see a game that scores that few points. A better bet might be 2 x TDs and a FG for the Packers, and a TD and 2 x FGs for the Bears, so 17-13.

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Turophile's picture

September 06, 2019 at 04:22 am

Final score 10-3. Hematite, you were close in your prediction (closer than i was, anyway).

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PackfanNY's picture

September 05, 2019 at 10:45 pm

Hematite You were damn near exact! Good job man.

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Lphill's picture

September 05, 2019 at 05:34 am

We would have to believe that this new Packer offense is tailored for Aaron Rodgers , how could it not be? If this is the case then we are in for a fun ride!

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stockholder's picture

September 05, 2019 at 06:22 am

The Doom and Gloom has left Green Bay. I believe these Wrs aren't a question mark. The Rookies are, and how much playing time will they get? ( Zero! ) Adams, MVS, and Allison, were starters from last year. Trevor Davis is here to stay. And Those who thought Shepard could replace him, are just wrong. Kumerow will get chances. These guys know how to run routes now. Were about to see their BEST in 2 years! IN Fact I have a new nickname for Green Bays offense. LIGHTNING AND THUNDER! The bears offense isn't over-powering. If Petine can stop the bears running attack. The packers should win this game.

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Coldworld's picture

September 05, 2019 at 07:17 am

Shepherd and Davis are very dissimilar skill sets. Just because they are smaller than the other receivers and both return kicks, people seem to assume overlap.

That said, I find it hard to envisage our offense firing early. I hope I am wrong, but expecting it to fire against a very good D on the first real world outing seems overly optimistic.

I hope that we can blind side them by doing the unexpected, something that the Bears have benefited from over the last couple of years to help on O and D.

Our special teams scare me across the board. If the ST play isn’t significantly better than in recent years and preseason, I think that is an overlooked and potentially a decisive area tonight. I hope Crosby rediscovers his leg tonight and gets it through the end zone.

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dobber's picture

September 05, 2019 at 07:38 am

"That said, I find it hard to envisage our offense firing early. I hope I am wrong, but expecting it to fire against a very good D on the first real world outing seems overly optimistic."

I think LaF keeps it simple and we'll see fewer wrinkles than Nagy threw at the Packers in his debut last year when he threw the kitchen sink at the Packers in the first half. In many ways, I think this is a game the Packers will try to grind out to keep those new looks off film, and save some of it for the Vikes next week.

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Swisch's picture

September 05, 2019 at 11:11 am

I'd be inclined to tell the blockers on special teams to not block anyone who isn't right in front of you, and don't grab anyone.
Generally speaking, just get in the way without having to make contact. If you can't get in the way, then let it go.
I think there'll be a collective groan echoing far and wide throughout the hinterlands of Wisconsin every time there's a penalty for an illegal block on special teams.
Wouldn't it be great if there were none of those flags, and the countryside was left in quietude?
Last season in the opener against the Bears, on the winning touchdown to Randall Cobb, he was greatly assisted by Ty Montgomery blocking two defenders downfield while barely touching them, if at all.
That wasn't special teams, but it still works as an example: Sometimes the best block is the one that isn't thrown.
Just get in the way.

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Leatherhead's picture

September 05, 2019 at 11:15 am

Fair catch anything you can.

Guard against onside kicks and fake punts.....that's far more important than trying to return.

If you have to return a kick, do the best you can and protect the ball. Take a dive at the end of the return and avoid the crushing hit.

Net effect: No injuries and no penalties that back up the team. The average NFL team returns 1 or 2 punts per game for about 8 yards. Big Whoop. Just catchthefrickinball and put the offense on the field.

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Cubbygold's picture

September 05, 2019 at 12:42 pm

8 yards per game. That means you can probably fumble once every 20 years to justify not taking a fair catch every opportunity you get.

I don't understand it. You've got baseball players changing the arc of their swing to marginally improve OPS numbers and scouts analyzing spin rate with advanced cameras... but analytics can't tell football players it's not worth it to take it out of the endzone,.

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dobber's picture

September 05, 2019 at 01:08 pm

Baseball was made for analytics...the one-on-one of it lends itself to that kind of low-dimensionality of analysis. Football is so different. Too many players on the field, too many variables before the players even become involved (day/night, turf/grass, sun/rain/snow...), too much going on in any one single play. Yes, there are some things that can be determined easily, but in many ways it will be hard to just land in the right ballpark with numbers.

I, for one, am thrilled because analytics have ruined baseball.

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Cubbygold's picture

September 05, 2019 at 03:45 pm

completely agree, not saying analytics needs to be a big part of football. Just saying that on kick returns and punt returns, the data is so one sided that it's absurd to ever take it out of the endzone

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White92's picture

September 05, 2019 at 12:24 pm

Hoping they contain that kick returner Chicago signed whose name escapes me.

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dobber's picture

September 05, 2019 at 01:08 pm

He must be a great one, then... ;)

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4thand10's picture

September 05, 2019 at 06:19 pm

Patterson....but he’s also been known to cough it up. They might use him on some trick end around while faking and giving it to Cohen...but as as WR...he’s not all that.

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Doug_In_Sandpoint's picture

September 05, 2019 at 07:05 am

I cannot believe I have to wait 12 more hours. I’ve got a golf game planned and then maybe the beach (I’m on vacation) but these are just time-wasters. I guess eating will take up some time. Any other ideas?

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PackfanNY's picture

September 05, 2019 at 07:21 am

I would suggest a long walk. That’s what I am going to do. Need to work off some excess anxiety. Your post made me laugh. I created a vision of you decked out in you best green and gold Packer golf wear smashing your driver into a tree just to relieve the tension. Yes, going to be a long wait. Like waking up on Christmas Day being told you need to wait until later on to open your presents. LOL.

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Rick5952's picture

September 05, 2019 at 07:45 am

Building a sand castle?

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Cubbygold's picture

September 05, 2019 at 07:51 am

12 hours of watching the NFL network hoping to hear 85 different predictions on tonights outcome?

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EddieLeeIvory's picture

September 05, 2019 at 08:17 am

Golf & beach is a perfect plan prior to gametime!

Where u at? Florida gulf coast?

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Swisch's picture

September 05, 2019 at 11:34 am

Hopefully not North Carolina, Atlantic coast.
Actually, the best place may be Sandpoint, Idaho (perhaps the hometown of Jerry Kramer?)

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Doug_In_Sandpoint's picture

September 05, 2019 at 12:54 pm

Yes, Jerry’s hometown. Great guy...we get to see him often, and he does a lot to help out our high school and our senior center.

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Doug_In_Sandpoint's picture

September 05, 2019 at 12:55 pm

Yes...Naples. I am hoping that bad golf=good football, as I did not exactly distinguish myself.

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PackfanNY's picture

September 05, 2019 at 07:12 am

I think the Packers will be fine on offense. All the weapons are there. Great QB, good back, number one receiver and good o-line. The “new system” implementation gives some uncertainty.
I am more anxious to see what we haven’t seen yet. That is the defense. The Packers constructed a major overhaul. Was it an “upgrade” is the question. I would argue YES. Packers additions Z and P Smith basically replace an aging and ineffective CMIII and Perry. Amos and Savage are serious upgrades over Ha Ha “I don’t like contact”Dix. Clark and Alexander seem ready for the next step. Sounds like King might finally be ready to move forward with his career. Gary has potential to develop into a good player. All sounds good but we need to see it on the field. It starts tonight.

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Cubbygold's picture

September 05, 2019 at 07:56 am

100% agree. Chicago's offense is mediocre, can GB make them look that way and hold them under 17? If so, GB wins.

GB ranks #32 in defensive spending this year, can Pettine really turn that into a top 10 defense like many anticipate? King, Gary, Savage are big unknowns. Will Preston Smith make some noise finally? I worry about the run defense with all these new guys and the focus on the pass, fortunately the bears don't have a big bruiser that can run over these guys.

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PackfanNY's picture

September 05, 2019 at 08:10 am

They may not have a big bruiser but I would expect a big dose of the rookie Montgomery. Packers need to watch him. Bears don’t want to throw. More about gadget plays and misdirection to get people open.

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Cubbygold's picture

September 05, 2019 at 09:25 am

For sure, Montgomery will be a big one to watch. I think GB is better equipped to handle this type of run/pass than a Jordan Howard or AP type of back though.

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dobber's picture

September 05, 2019 at 08:19 am

If the Packers take care of the football and don't give the Bears any short fields or a big-ish early lead, it will be a barnburner.

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holmesmd's picture

September 05, 2019 at 12:17 pm

P Smith & Amos aren’t splash players. They are quiet, assignment sure pro’s who don’t screw up. They make the plays there to be made but to expect them to be highlight reel players is unrealistic IMO.

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Cubbygold's picture

September 05, 2019 at 12:46 pm

Interesting, I haven't heard that comparison before. Definitely understand it with Amos, different to think about that for an OLB trying to get to the quarterback.

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PackfanNY's picture

September 05, 2019 at 12:54 pm

In his 4 year career Preston Smith has 24.5 sacks and 4 interceptions. I believe he also sacked Aaron Rodgers for a safety in the playoff game the Packers won. Those are the stats but you can decide if that’s enough of a splash.

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Cubbygold's picture

September 05, 2019 at 03:46 pm

I thought his deal was that he created a ton of pressures and that was indicative of better sack numbers in the future. Could have misunderstood though

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Bearmeat's picture

September 05, 2019 at 07:21 am

As Nagler said, the right side of the OL, and keeping rushing lanes under control is where the game will be won or lost. Special teams terrifies me too.

If we can block Mack et al up for 3 seconds, there is hay to be made. If we can keep Mitch from scrambling he will throw INTs. If we can keep Cohen from destroying us on special teams.. we win.

If any one of those goes wrong, we lose. I think Chicago has a 2/3rds chance of winning a tight one tonight. 24-21.

Lotta season left though.

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dobber's picture

September 05, 2019 at 07:35 am

Agreed. If ARod has time to throw, he should be able to pick apart the Chicago secondary, which lost Amos and Callahan (one of the league's best slot corners). Must run the ball enough to allow new looks to be effective.

Keep Trubisky in the pocket and force him to make his progressions and throw. Keep contain on the RBs and make sure they don't beat you on flat passes.

A lot to happen on the road against a Bears team that will likely come out firing, but there's a path to a win, here, if the Packers can weather that initial storm.

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Cubbygold's picture

September 05, 2019 at 07:58 am

It feels like way too often in the past we've said things like that, then watched GB roll out slow developing plays that put 12 at risk. Hopefully the first 20 plays are all designed to mitigate the pass rush and get them on their heels.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

September 05, 2019 at 08:06 am

Maybe they will actually use the RB screen again.

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dobber's picture

September 05, 2019 at 08:20 am

What is this "RB screen" of which you speak?

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Spock's picture

September 05, 2019 at 10:18 am

"What is this "RB screen" of which you speak?" :) :)
If I remember (it's been a long time) there used to be a signature play that the Packers ran well and then inexplicably stopped using (sigh) which I believe was called this "RB screen" . Could the pleasant experience of watching this play happen anew???

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Matt Gonzales's picture

September 05, 2019 at 12:55 pm

I think we will see both a heavy dose of true screens and checkdowns into the flat, as that is the best medicine for an overzealous pass rush.

I would also love to see GB try the sweep/reverse a couple times early, as they can use that to burn the defense on the pass if they sell out in coverage.

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PeteK's picture

September 05, 2019 at 07:37 am

I just think we have to successfully run the ball, 100 yds total. However, having a fullback in our scheme again should help. King and Williams are banged up, but the Smiths should help negate that.

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holmesmd's picture

September 05, 2019 at 07:58 am

Who the heck is going to play ILB for Burks in base & nickel?

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

September 05, 2019 at 08:05 am

I expect Raven Greene.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

September 05, 2019 at 08:04 am

One thing I haven't seen mentioned is the synergy that comes from practicing against higher-quality teammates. Bulaga practicing against Z makes both of them better at the start of this season; last year Bulaga missed a lot of practice and only had to face Perry. The same thing with Adams vs Alexander, Bahktiari vs P Smith, Rodgers vs Amos/Savage, etc. I'm hoping that the "steel sharpens steel" effect comes into play.

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Cubbygold's picture

September 05, 2019 at 10:23 am

For sure. I hope it was humbling for 12 and the offense to see that it wasn't easy to implement a new scheme and immediately see it work. Hopefully that challenge all summer has allowed them to improve more quickly. I wish King had been part of that process.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

September 05, 2019 at 08:28 am

Packers need to stop Mack and Hicks pass rushing, and stop RB David Montgomery who I wanted the Pack to draft. If they do this and not turn ball over the Pack wins.

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4thand10's picture

September 05, 2019 at 06:28 pm

They had a chance for him, they had a chance for Deebo....I just wanted Montgomery and Christian Wilkins...time will tell us. There was just needs this year. I didn’t think the Sternberger pick was a real pressing need...so I hope he turns out good eventually.

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EddieLeeIvory's picture

September 05, 2019 at 08:22 am

Tarik Cohen out of the backfield matched up on any of our inside linebackers scares me.

David Montgomery is a great rookie RB and hopefully he meets Kenny Clark hard early as his "Welcome to the NFL Moment".

WR Anthony Miller is going to become a very good WR. I wanted him in last year's draft.

QB Trubisky scares me most with his running ability. I'm afraid there will be a few plays where we flush him out of the pocket & he scrambles for big yards.

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4thand10's picture

September 05, 2019 at 06:29 pm

It because we all have PTSD from Capers. Pettines D kept them in games last year.

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Packers2020's picture

September 05, 2019 at 08:24 am

Quote: Rodgers didn't help though. He didn't play with passion and he certainly didn't look like a two-time MVP. He looked more like someone on his last legs.

Really? He had 25 TDs and 2 INTS last year. The WR's were in the top 10 in the league in drops. AR had at least 5 TDs dropped. Wasn't there also a writer on this very site that showed that most of AR's throw aways and low completion percentage were due to WR's not being open or the O-Line not protecting in the middle?

You also said when Rodgers is at his best he does not give the ball away. Well, he only has 2 picks all of last year and both of those were the WR's fault when I went back and looked at them.

Am I saying AR is mistake free last year? Absolutely not. But do not say that AR looked like he was on his last leg. He just needs a D as well as more help around him on offense.

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Spock's picture

September 05, 2019 at 10:28 am

Packers2019, Good points. Also, AR was almost literally ON ONE LEG for most of the season with the other one being broken. I'm not Rodgers and neither is the author so I don't know how the author can claim that AR "didn't play with passion". It looked to me (from the outside) like he wasn't having as much fun but I seriously doubt that someone with Rodgers' competitiveness wasn't "playing with passion"; you don't go out to play a meaningless game like the last one last year (whether people agree with that decision or not) when you could have sat if you don't have passion for the game.

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Cubbygold's picture

September 05, 2019 at 10:42 am

And to be clear, the only right answer is that he shouldn't have played once they were eliminated from the playoffs :)

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Cubbygold's picture

September 05, 2019 at 10:41 am

Let's not overreact either way. Rodgers ranked 16th in QBR last year, right behind Dalton. His 2 interceptions were certainly partially related to choosing the deep ball over the short pass to an open receiver. NFL network did a great segment showing about a dozen times he passed over open receivers for deep 50/50 balls. (many were JG) The past is the past and we don't know what he was thinking at the time, or how hurt he was. I think the general statement is 'lets hope he gets excited about this new offense and it turns out to be a good match of scheme and 12s ability to perform miracles when necessary'.

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JHitTheB's picture

September 05, 2019 at 11:00 am

Another major factor regarding AR and the WRs not being on the same page that gets largely overlooked is AR wasn't taking practice reps until week 8 or so. That is HUGE as far as timing and trusting each other goes. I think there has been some time for them all to gel together now. I fully expect AR to go berserk in the passing game this year as long as he's healthy.

I'd like to see GB get back to those lethal RB screens and WR slants, especially with a speedster like MVS. I think MVS has the juice to take a quick slant the distance in space.

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dobber's picture

September 05, 2019 at 01:16 pm

"The WR's were in the top 10 in the league in drops. "

Actually, the top WR in drops was Davante Adams with 5, tied for 30th with about 20 other players. Given his 160+ targets, that's not too shabby. A few other Packers with 4 or 3.

foxsports.com/nfl/stats?season=2018&week=100&category=RECEIVING&opp=0&sort=10&qualified=1&sortOrder=0

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Cubbygold's picture

September 05, 2019 at 04:08 pm

those darn facts always get in the way of a good story

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GreenInMo's picture

September 05, 2019 at 08:43 am

I'm very curious to see what the offense has to offer.
What I would like to see is some new approaches such as:
Offense
- a sense of urgency (to keep the defense on its heels)
- aggression (double team Mack with Marcedes and run at him)
- Rogers under center for some true play-action
- snaps at 10 -15 seconds left on the play clock with regularity to allow the hard count to actually work its magic
Defense
- Wider OLB sets that actually contain and set the edge
- Help the Bears create a pocket before collapsing it (invite them to throw instead of run)
- Zero players eligible for a penalty in rugby for failing to wrap up (more turnovers happen from proper tackling technique than from strip attempts)
- Attacking defense as opposed to reacting defense

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RCPackerFan's picture

September 05, 2019 at 08:45 am

Reasons why GB wins:

LaFleur's scheme - His creative offensive mind was a major reason why the Packers brought him in. If he shows off that creativity and puts less pressure on Rodgers by schematically getting players open, look out!

Rodgers - All offseason Rodgers has had a giant bullseye on his back. He has listened to nothing but criticism questioning just about everything about him.
I truly think tonight he comes out to show everyone that second guessed him that they shouldn't have.

Pettine/Defense - Pettine finally has some of the pieces he has been looking for. He has versatile players that will allow him to do virtually anything he wants.

Why they may lose:
Bears defense was first in a lot of categories last year. If the offense starts slowly they could be hard to put a lot of points up on in a hurry.

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Since'61's picture

September 05, 2019 at 09:47 am

"Rodgers didn't play well". "Looked like he was on his last legs." Really??!!! You might remember if you actually watched the Packers last season that Rodgers was playing through 2 injuries on the same leg so it would be more correct to write that he was playing on his last leg.

Does anyone know what defense the opponent was in when Jones was averaging 5+ yards per carry. It was probably because Rodgers read the defense as 2 deep safeties and handed off to Jones based off of that or off of RPOs post-snap. When the defense stacked the box he went with the pass. Opponents knew Rodgers was injured and they played to stop the run first. Rodgers read the run defense and went to a pass. The problem was our receivers besides Adams had no idea where they were going and the interior of our OL did not do much more than throw lookout blocks at the pass rushers.

Enough of last season. The two biggest differences I expect from last season's team are an offense that attacks the defense non-stop and keeps the opponent off balance with multiple looks, spread runs and quick hitting passes. On defense I expect faster play than we have seen in years, consistent pressure on the QB and better tackling (fingers crossed). Hopefully we can force a few turnovers as well.

If we hold the Bears to under 20 points and we did last season in the opener we'll carry the day. If not for 2 Kizer turnovers we win that game easy last season.

To me the big concerns for this game are our STs and the officiating. If we can play without stupid penalties and get at least decent officiating we should be OK.

I think the Bears are a good team but not a great team. They can be had. I think our new offense led by Aaron Rodgers and our revitalized and faster defense can take the Bears. I'm sticking with the Packers, 26 - 16 over the Bears. Go Pack Go!
Thanks, Since '61

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ScaryGary's picture

September 05, 2019 at 10:56 pm

partrick who? this is aarons league

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Swisch's picture

September 05, 2019 at 10:07 am

This post is right on the mark in putting the focus on Aaron Rodgers.
This seems the beginning of the second stage of his career. Even though the first stage has been great, there's a lot for him to win or lose from here on out, personally and as leader of the Pack.
Rodgers can't control whether his receivers run the right routes, or whether his linemen miss blocks, or whether his coach sends in the best plays -- but he can control himself and his emotions and his reactions.
If he's supportive and resilient and coachable; if he's disciplined and humble; if he's patient and persevering -- well, he can go down as one of the best quarterbacks of all time.
He could be right up there with Starr and Brady and Montana and the like; and he can possibly lift the Packers to a Super Bowl or three.
It's a defining moment for Aaron Rodgers, and it's not determined by whether the Packers win tonight, but how he leads the team.
If Aaron steps up as a leader, the wins will come.

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Leatherhead's picture

September 05, 2019 at 11:04 am

Rodgers is starting the second stage of his career at 36? No.

Rodgers is an old QB. Of the other old QBs in the league, none of them are coming off a leg injury, none of them are starting with a new coach, and none of them are moving to a new system.

Packer "fans" hate this, but Trubisky compared very well to Aaron Rodgers statistically last season. In completion%, QBR, yards/attempt, avoiding sacks, running out of the pocket for first downs, attempts/touchdown, etc and many other areas, Trubisky did pretty well.

In his second year, he was 11-3 and made the Pro Bowl. His best football is in front of him, not behind him.

I get the sense that people here accept it as an article of faith that we're going to have a big advantage over the Bears at the QB spot. I don't think so.

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Swisch's picture

September 05, 2019 at 11:32 am

Rodgers is so talented and so intelligent that he kind of has to restrain himself in controlling his greatness.
I'm not so sure Trubisky is anywhere close. He may put up similar numbers at times, but my hunch is that he's at least a level below Rodgers in terms of overall ability. Time will tell.
The key for Rodgers is disciplining his talent and setting the tone for a winning team.
Don't get me wrong: I'm still looking for those great plays from Aaron Rodgers.
Paradoxically, though, I think the spectacular will come more often, and more effectively, if Rodgers focuses much more on the unspectacular -- the shorter plays that get a lot of guys involved and move the chains.

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Leatherhead's picture

September 05, 2019 at 11:39 am

You are idolizing the guy he was, not the guy who has gone 10-12-1 over the last two seasons.

He has to restrain his greatness? Seriously?

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Lare's picture

September 05, 2019 at 12:54 pm

Rodgers didn't go 10-12-1 the last two years, the Packers did. It's a team game, starting with the Head Coach.

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Leatherhead's picture

September 05, 2019 at 11:46 am

According to pro-football-reference, Rodgers and Trubisky were 6th and 7th in bad throw percentage. Trubisky completed a higher percentage of passes for more adjusted yards/attempt and one less TD. He also took less than half the sacks as Rodgers and ran for over 450 yards and a bunch of first downs. That's why his QB rating was 4th in the league behind Brees, Mahomes, and Roethlisberger. Rodgers was 20th in the league in QB rating.

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Since'61's picture

September 05, 2019 at 12:44 pm

OS sounds like you are idolizing Trubitsky. I’ll take Rodgers and his age and his ability over Trubisky any day all day.

If you are using last season as your base line what would Trubisky have done with the Packers roster and what would Rodgers have done with the Bears roster. He would probably be undefeated with the Bears while Trubisky would have been lucky to win 2 games with the 2018 Packers. Trubisky over Rodgers is a complete hyped up joke and it’s a bad one. When Trubisky has 2 MVPs and an SB win we can talk. But that’s never going to happen. Case closed. Thanks, Since ‘61

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Leatherhead's picture

September 05, 2019 at 03:44 pm

Since 61.....the last guy I idolized was my neighbor who joined the Marines on Dec. 8, 1941. He had a bullet go through him after he'd been in the Philippines for an hour.

I can't play "what if?" I can play "What is". If some of y'all are right, and Rodgers clearly outplays Trubisky, we're going to win by a good margin. We'll know in about 8 or 9 hours who the best QB on the field was.

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Since'61's picture

September 05, 2019 at 07:24 pm

Old School, sorry to learn about your neighbor. I expect that he was with one of the Marine Artillery Batalians that landed on landed on October 21, 1944. The day after 4 Army divisions landed on the East Coast of Leyte. The Phillipines were mostly an Army campaign but due to shipping shortages the Army artillery was delayed on Guam until later in the campaign.

My Dad also participated in that campaign. He landed at Ormoc on the West coast of Leyte with the 77th Infantry Division to outflank the Japanese defenses. He was a Sargeant in an assault company, first wave etc.

In any case we all owe an unpayable debt for the sacrifices made during that terrible time. My Dad made it back or I wouldn’t be posting here. Regrettably the names of the men and battles who preserved our freedoms are part of an already fading record.

Some things are more important than football. Let’s hold their memory dear and Go Pack Go.
Thanks, Since ‘61

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dobber's picture

September 05, 2019 at 01:21 pm

But if you watched Trubisky, he was still being asked to only read half the field last year in many games. He was staked to short fields due to TOs forced by the defense and frequently to solid leads. If you've got a 2nd year QB, this was probably the best you could hope for in terms of an incubator. Maybe that's a tribute to Nagy. Maybe it's Trubisky. Maybe it's circumstances.

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Cubbygold's picture

September 05, 2019 at 01:35 pm

Right. Big difference in completion percentage and other metrics when you've got a defense and special teams that are supporting you and putting you in positions to succeed. Rodgers dropping back into his own end zone, or knowing that a single turnover could lose the game, changes the equation.

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Cubbygold's picture

September 05, 2019 at 01:33 pm

Trubisky's going 11-3 last year says as much about his talent as Jimmy G. going 3-1 leading New England. Having an elite defense and great coach can cover a lot of issues.

I expect the gap between Rodgers and Trubisky to widen significantly this year now that teams have tape on Nagy, Rodgers has a new scheme and a competent defense.

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Since'61's picture

September 05, 2019 at 02:53 pm

The Bears scored 421 points last season, 24 of which were scored on 4 defensive TDs. So their offense scored 397 points. The Bears had a +12 turnover ratio even with Trubitsky throwing 14 Ints.

The Packers scored 376 points with one TD scored by their defense. So the Packers scored 370 points with their offense. A point differential of 27 points in favor of the Bears offense with the Packers having an even Turnover ratio and Rodgers throwing only 2 Ints. Imagine if Rodgers had a +12 TO differential.

Bears average starting field position was their own 30.5 yard line, ranked 6th best in the league. Packer average starting field position was their own 27. (Better than I thought). Ranked 28th in the league. Again imagine if Rodgers had better field position.

The Bears drive success rate (DSR) was .720 and ranked 14th in the league. The Packers drive success rate was .711 and ranked 16th in the league. DSR is defined as a drive which achieves either a first down or a score.

My point is that football is a team game. In 2018 Rodgers played injured for the entire season and his supporting cast was mediocre at best. Yet in the stats that matter like points, drive success and turnovers Rodgers played as well or better than Twobitsky. Again put Rodgers, healthy, on the 2018 Bears roster and what do you think his numbers would have been. The idea that Trubisky is a better QB than Rodgers now or ever is a myth or more likely Fantasy Football. Thanks, Since '61

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Leatherhead's picture

September 05, 2019 at 03:55 pm

Thanks for that, but there's a correction or two needed.

Trubisky had 10 interceptions last year in the regular season, not 14.

You are also saying that the difference between one of the best average starting position teams and one of the worst is about 3 yards?

Here's what I like about Trubisky: He's young and he'll get better. He wins games. About two or three times a game, instead of getting caught for a drive-ending sack, he'll get loose and run to the first down marker and keep the offense on the field. I think that's huge, frankly.

This isn't about who is better in the past, or in the future, or will have the best career. This is about which QB is going to help his team more, and we're going to have the answer to that pretty soon.

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dobber's picture

September 05, 2019 at 04:52 pm

" You are also saying that the difference between one of the best average starting position teams and one of the worst is about 3 yards?"

The deceptive part of this stat, if I'm understanding it correctly, is that most KOs start you at the 25 yd line. Most punts don't. As this number moves back, it tends to indicate greater contributions from KOs. As it moves out, it indicates greater contributions from punts. If true, those numbers indicate more than just where you start, it indicates what you're giving up.

If KOs are not included here, correct me and I'll gladly tip my hat.

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ILPackerBacker's picture

September 05, 2019 at 11:30 pm

Kizer is young
Brett H is young
lots of people are young

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4thand10's picture

September 05, 2019 at 06:41 pm

Old School... Rodgers played half a season. Rodgers Brady, Rivers, Brees and Rothlesburger All older, and none of their teams are in a hurry to shove them out the door. Even old man Favre got another team to the NFCC game. Manning. Turdbiskut has a ceiling, and he’s reached it. That Bears D is what carried that team...and it only got them so far

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4thand10's picture

September 05, 2019 at 06:41 pm

Old School... Rodgers played half a season. Rodgers Brady, Rivers, Brees and Rothlesburger All older, and none of their teams are in a hurry to shove them out the door. Even old man Favre got another team to the NFCC game. Manning. Turdbiskut has a ceiling, and he’s reached it. That Bears D is what carried that team...and it only got them so far

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Tarynfor12's picture

September 05, 2019 at 10:41 am

I cannot believe I'm the most optimistic person here. Everyone mentioning ' if ' in some capacity.

Let me show you how it's done....

Packers - two TD's and three FG's.
Bears - 3 TD's and a missed extra point.

Packers 23-20

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Since'61's picture

September 05, 2019 at 11:18 am

Taryn - I think my 26 - 16 prediction sounds more optimistic than your
23-20 call. LOL. I'll be happy if either one comes true. Thanks, Since '61

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Tarynfor12's picture

September 05, 2019 at 11:37 am

Since '61
Sorry, I have been attempting to use my Evelyn Wood speed reading again.

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Since'61's picture

September 05, 2019 at 12:48 pm

Stay with it. I have been a speed reader since the early ‘90s. It works and it was the only way I kept up with all the reading I had to do fo my business. LOL. Thanks, Since ‘61

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Qoojo's picture

September 05, 2019 at 11:41 am

26 - 16

13 Safeties for the packers, as the bears get 5 FGs, then +1 point because everyone feels so sorry for them and how much they suck.

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Since'61's picture

September 05, 2019 at 12:45 pm

Qoojo I’ll take it! Thanks, Since ‘61

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wildbill's picture

September 05, 2019 at 11:21 am

Packers vs Bears not as fierce as the Packers vs Vikings!?? What rock did you just crawl out from under? Favre playing for the queens may seem to have elevated that rivalry but it’s not close. I don’t care if we only win two games as long as they are against the Bears!! Our hate list is as follows: Bears, Vikings, Cowgirls, Seahags, Lions. Nuff said!

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Qoojo's picture

September 05, 2019 at 11:28 am

I hate the Vikings more given that the fan base is dumber and trolls more than Chicago's.

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Tundraboy's picture

September 05, 2019 at 06:55 pm

I hate the Vikings more because they act like they have won something. At least the Bears have. Considering how even at their best, the Vikings are the definition of losing the big games. Purple people eaters especially,and nothing remotely dominant since.You would think they would shut up until they win a Championship,or at least stop choking in the Big Game.

Oh and yes I hate that stupid horn. How bush league. Summoning Thor?

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dobber's picture

September 05, 2019 at 01:22 pm

"Packers vs Bears not as fierce as the Packers vs Vikings!?? "

It's a 'what have you done for me lately' world.

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Tundraboy's picture

September 05, 2019 at 06:15 pm

That's the basic list. I add, Eagles,Denver,KC, Tampa Bay.

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Qoojo's picture

September 05, 2019 at 11:32 am

As far as I am concerned, there is zero data judge how the starters will perform. To be honest, don't even have any data on Rodgers, given the past two years. So I consider any prediction to be as useful as coin flip.

As a fan, I just hope they fulfill their potential. HoF QB + awesome RB when healthy + upgraded OL depth and RG, which is now paired with a re-tooled defense. It sounds and looks great on paper. It's just a matter of can they work together as a team, not have all the mental errors and other issues of the past.

Also, I hope to never see MM's incredible stubbornness and stupidity at refusing to give OL help when it's clear there is a persistent issue, "I know. Empty backfield!" /facepalm

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Zebra 3's picture

September 05, 2019 at 12:19 pm

I think once the team settles in within a few series they will out perform the bears.

New coach and new system but Rodgers will get the offense into a rhythm and the scoreboard will lite up to the tune of 4 TD's.

The defense will be more aggressive and mix some blitz packages to pressure the QB. Looking for a couple of TO's tonight.

GB 31 bears 13

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Since'61's picture

September 05, 2019 at 12:49 pm

Love it Zebra. Be positive. Thanks, Since ‘61

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Lare's picture

September 05, 2019 at 08:00 pm

I think the Packers can beat the Bears, if the refs give the a chance.

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