Who Will Remain Standing On The Offense For 2022?

 

QUARTERBACKS
Returning Probably Iffy Gone Cap
Love, Benkert        
Etling        
  Rodgers     $19.8M or ~$20M

Benkert and Etling are low cost players.  Love is still the heir apparent and the backup quarterback.  Rodgers if traded should provide $19.8M in cap relief, but not until March 16th, meaning the Packers could not use those cap savings to extend or tag other players like Adams and Lazard.  If extended, his new contract could result in up to $20M or so in cap relief, absent a pay cut or other unlikely contingency.  If Rodgers returns, the Packers probably will wring as much as they can in cap relief from his new deal so they can retain and/or acquire a talented supporting cast.  They would also get the contract executed as soon as possible so his cap savings can be used prior to the tampering period and to help meet the cap limit.

RUNNING BACKS
Returning Probably Iffy Gone Cap
Dillon, Hill        
Taylor     White  
  Jones     -$800K to $3.05M

Dillon and Hill are draft picks on rookie deals, so they should return.  Patrick Taylor is a low-cost backup who got to play and did not hurt his cause.  Kerrith Whyte has not been signed to a futures deal to date by the Packers nor by any other team as far as I can tell.  He was previously released by the Packers and signed later to the practice squad.  Players on the practice squad automatically become free agents at the end of the season by rule.  I am a little surprised but he may be a goner.

Aaron Jones is interesting to me.  He is scheduled to earn $2M in 2022, $16M in cash in 2023 and $12M in 2024.  If Rodgers is traded and the philosophy is acceptance of a hard landing (that is, having a bad record) in 2022, then trading Aaron Jones seems like a possibility, though I grant this seems to be my "pet idea" as I have not seen others suggesting this course of action.  If the Packers want to be competitive in 2022 even if they trade Rodgers (the soft landing in my lexicon), then the team should probably keep Jones.  [Obviously, the NFL would never let me become an owner of a team - see the Stephen Ross saga.] 

Jones would be attractive because he is very good (82.8 PFF grade), his cap number for 2022 to an acquiring team would be a hair under $2M, and his total remaining contract is for 3 years and $30M.  Overthecap listed the value of his 2021 season at $7.96M.

The Packers could afford to leave Jones' contract alone since trading him costs just $800K in cap space, though the Packers could otherwise convert his roster bonus and his game active and workout bonuses to obtain $3.05M in cap relief.  Jones does have a $3.75M roster bonus due on March 18th, so a trade would have to be effected after the start of the new league year and prior to the 18th - in other words, on March 17th (unless Jones agreed to defer the due date of his roster bonus).

I do not think trading Jones is likely, nor am I advocating for it; I am noting possibilities.  A second round pick might change my mind, but I think a late third rounder or a day 3 pick would be more likely as compensation.  Moreover, if Rodgers is traded, I think the Packers should prioritize the offensive personnel over the defensive personnel.  I would like to assess Jordan Love with a decent offensive line, good running backs and some receiving options.  Dillon, Hill and Patrick would not be a poor group, but Jones obviously would improve it.

TIGHT ENDS
Returning Probably Iffy Gone Cap
Deguara, Dafney   Lewis   $2.445M*
Davis, Mack   Tonyan   N/A
Kaufusi        

Deguara is on his rookie deal and Dafney (ERFA) and Davis are on low cost contracts.  They will all return.  Alize Mack was recently signed to a futures contract.  The Packers have been trying to develop Kaufusi on the practice squad as a blocking tight end.  He might come in handy if Marcedes Lewis retires or the Packers decide to part ways with Lewis.

OTC listed the value of Lewis' 2021 play at $4.17M.  OTC's contract numbers do not make internal sense (they do not add up!).  Spotrac's numbers also do not make sense.  He apparently is scheduled to earn $2.445M and his 2022 cap number would be $4.525M per OTC or 2.445M per Spotrac.  Lewis can play in the NFL for some team if he wants to, though he might choose to retire.  Lewis has a minimum base salary and a $700K workout bonus, so very little can be done to reduce his cap number short of a pay cut.  Since the websites conflict, I do not know his exact cap savings if cut.  However, Ken Ingalls has proven to be very reliable and accurate: he used OTC's numbers ($2.445M) in this tweet.

Robert Tonyan is an unrestricted free agent.  Tonyan suffered an ACL injury on October 28, in the week 8 game against Arizona, so he missed 9 games.  OTC listed the value of his 2021 play at $2.35M for the partial season.  Spotrac projects a 4-year contract at $10.8M AAV, but strangely indicated in its formula that Tonyan played 100% of all possible games in 2020 and 2021.  Tonyan missed 5 games in 2019 as well.  Tonyan caught 18 passes for 204 yards (11.3 yards/reception) and 2 touchdowns, down from 11 touchdowns in 2020.  His Pro Football Focus grade dropped to a below average grade of 54.6 from 68.0 in 2020.

Re-signing Tonyan would probably have to wait until the new league year arrives, though an agreement in principle could be reached anytime.  It is unclear what Tonyan's value is in light of his injury.  He could miss half of the 2022 season and he was having a down year.  Perhaps he would consider a prove-it deal with incentives that probably would all be unlikely to be earned given his lack of production in 2021.

Wide Receivers
Returning Probably Iffy Gone Cap
Rodgers, Winfree, Blair Lazard   Adams (~$3M)
Gafford, Malik Taylor St. Brown   Moore (~$350K)
      Valdes-Scantling (~$4M)

Blair and Rico Gafford signed futures, and Taylor is an ERFA.  Winfree is under contract for $895K, and Rodgers is on his rookie contract.  Robert Moore, the wide receiver and return specialist, has not signed a futures deal, which seems odd.  OTC listed the value of Equanimeous St. Brown's play in 2021 at $995K.  The Packers seem to like St. Brown so a small deal just over his minimum seems reasonable.

Lazard is a Restricted Free Agent.  The Packers could use a tender on him for $3.98M for second-round compensation or a right-of-first-refusal with no compensation at $2.433M, per OTC estimations.  The Packers could decide to reach a long-term deal.  Spotrac lists his market value at $7.7M AAV (with comparisons to three players making $5M or so and to Nelson Algohar who makes $11M AAV, so that seems skewed to me).  OTC listed the value of his play at $5.33M in 2021.  I suspect that his fair market value on a long term-deal is roughly $4M to $5M.  The Packers could get his cap number under $3M or so.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be a free agent.  Spotrac estimates his value at $8.7M (but again compares him to three $5M AAV players and to Cobb at $9M).  OTC listed the value of his play at $2.17M.  I think someone will pay him close to $8M AAV since he is the premier deep threat free agent, but that is just my guess and many have indicated that $8M is too much.  The Packers likely would have to write an extreme contract for Valdes-Scantling.  It would be difficult to sign both him and Lazard.

Davante Adams will be a free agent.  Sportrac estimates his fair market value at $25.8M and OTC listed the value of his play in 2021 at $18.26M.  If Rodgers returns there is a small modest chance that the Packers retain Adams.  The Packers would have to construct an extreme contract that keeps his first-year (2022) cap number absurdly low at this point.  If Adams gets a 4 year, $100M contract ($25M AAV) but the Packers only assign a $10M cap number to 2022, that would require stuffing $90M in cap hits into his final three years.  Finding $10M in cap space might be doable but means choices elsewhere.  I think Adams is gone.

OFFENSIVE LINEMEN
Returning Probably Iffy Gone Cap
Bakhtiari       $6.33M - $9.7M
Runyan, Myers     Braden  
Newman, Hanson   Turner   $2.1M-$3.9M
Van Lanen, Menet   Kelly   (~$2.5M +)
Nijman   Patrick   (~$2M)
Jenkins       0 - $2.4M

Runyan, Myers, and Newman are on their cheap rookie contracts  Hanson and Nijman are ERFAs.  Van Lanen and center Menet signed futures contracts.  They should all make the 90-man roster.  Ben Braden was eligible to sign a futures contract but is unsigned and is still a free agent.  It is not clear whether the Packers were interested.  That leads me to believe he is gone.

The Packers could get savings from Elgton Jenkins.  Reducing his current base from $3.986M to his minimum of $965K, a difference of $3.021M, and converting it to a signing bonus prorated over 5 seasons ($604K/yr) would result in a net of $2.417M cap savings.  To do that, Jenkins would have to agree to add the void years, which is dubious.  They might do a full extension but unless Jenkins agrees to receive less cash than he is scheduled to earn in 2022, an extension cannot produce more cap savings.

Jenkins is a little awkward.  Jenkins sustained an ACL injury on November 21, in week 11.  He could miss the bulk of the 2022 season.  He also turns 27 in December.  Should the Packers pay Jenkins top left tackle money (perhaps $18M AAV) despite his injury, by tacking on 4 years and $72M onto his current deal?  The Packers cannot give Jenkins a big signing bonus in 2022, it would have to be a conversion of base and then a fully guaranteed option bonus in the area of $20M in 2023.  Asking Jenkins for void years without negotiating a big extension could be ticklish.  Green Bay will pull the trigger on a big extension.  I suppose the team could leave his contract alone and franchise Jenkins in 2023.  He should be worth roughly the amount of the tag (Franchise $16.7M, transition $15M for 2022).

Lucas Patrick is a free agent at the age of 29.  OTC listed the value of 2021 play at $7.66M.  That seems like a misprint to me to me but that's what is written.  His PFF grade dropped from 64.8 in 2020 to 57.2 in 2021.  He sat behind Newman for the first two games until Myers got hurt, although the Packers reversed that decision for the playoffs, starting Patrick over Newman, a decision with which I disagreed.  Patrick can play both guard positions and center.  That has value.  Unless Patrick is willing to be the utility interior offensive lineman for about $2.75M AAV, I think he is a goner.  

Dennis Kelly is a free agent.  He will be 32.  OTC estimated his 2021 value at $5.65M.  He played 305 snaps in 10 games, but all of them came in the last 5 games, including 4 starts, and he played 56 more snaps in the playoff game.  His PFF grade was an above-average 70.4.  He did have some issues in pass protection, but he was a solid run blocker.  He is more suitable for a run-heavy team than to a pass-happy team (so who is the quarterback and what is the team's offensive philosophy?).  He can play right or left tackle, as can Turner.  The Packers signed him for a very low price, possibly due to health although he played special teams the first 4 weeks of the season.  Unless he is the new Tre Boston (a player who seems to perform well but no one will pay him), he seems like a too expensive luxury. 

Billy Turner will be 31.  OTC lists the value of his play at $6.19M.  He missed 4 games in 2021 (and 2 games the year before).  He had a 66.2 PFF grade, just into above-average territory.  If released, his cap savings would be $3.359M.  The Packers could convert all available cash into a signing bonus to get cap savings of $3.91M using 4 void years.  He only currently has 3 void years; if Jenkins won't agree to an extra void year or converting his workout and game active money to a signing bonus, his cap savings would be $3.18M.            

The Packers could give Turner a four-year extension at perhaps $7.5M, or 4 years/$30M.  That might mean a $9M signing bonus.  The Packers would possibly want to convert all of the cash due to Turner for 2022 ($6.1M minus his minimum base salary of $1.12M) into a signing bonus as well.  That would result in a $14M signing bonus and cap savings of $2.1M.  A normal extension reduces the cap savings, and an extension with a small signing bonus for 2022 and a $9M option bonus in 2023 still results in a $3.91M cap savings.  To get that extra $730K in cap savings ($3.91M versus $3.18M) requires a commitment to Turner for 2022 and 2023, and a dead money charge of $9M or so still remaining in 2024. 

Bakhtiari has $14M in cash due in 2022 ($3.2M base, $9.5M roster, $700K workout, and $600K per game).  His minimum is $1.12M.  So the Packers could convert up to $12.88M over 3 years (current contract) or 5 years if he would consent to void years (or an extension).  Those scenarios result in cap savings of $9.14M to $9.739M.  That's pretty extreme as it would push his cap number to $28.84M in 2023 and to $32.84M in 2024.  Converting his $9.5M roster bonus would result in $6.33M in cap saving if no void years are added or $7.6M if two void years were added.   

Presumably, the tackles would be Bakhtiari and Nijman until Jenkins returns.  There would be no swing tackle unless Turner or Kelly were retained or another player acquired via free agency or the draft.  The guards would be Runyan and Newman with Van Lanen being the backup, unless Patrick is retained or another player acquired.  The center would be Myers with Hanson and Menet being the backups, again unless another player were acquired or until Jenkins returns.

SPECIAL TEAMS:

Returning Probably Iffy Gone Cap
Molson        
    Crosby   $1.71M - $2.395M
    Bojorquez   (-$705K+)
    Wirtel    

Molson will return to the 90-man roster.  He has a $705K cap number.  Wirtel is under contract for $825K.  He is iffy not because of his salary but because of his performance.

Crosby has a $4.73M cap number, with a base of base salary of $2.25M and a $650 game active bonus and a $500K workout bonus.  He is due $3.4M in cash.  If released, the cap savings would be $2.395M.  He has 3 void years.  Converting the maximum possible to a signing bonus would result in $1.71M in cap savings.  Adding a fourth void year bumps that up to $1.82M.  For what it is worth, OTC listed Crosby's value in 2021 at $2.761M.  I have no idea how that was determined.

Corey Bojorquez is a free agent.  His cap number last season was $1.02M and OTC listed his value for 2021 at $1.326M.  His market is probably less than $1.5M per year.  A replacement would have to cost at least the $705K minimum.  

As a note, any player who is released will be replaced on the 51 highest paid list by another player making at least $705K, and possibly more.  For example, releasing Turner saves $3.359M, but strictly speaking, with his removal another player making at least $705K would replace him, so the net would be $3.359M minus $705K, or $2.654M.  Those players who yielded cap savings via extension or restructuring would not slide out of the top 51 players and thus would have no offset.  Conversely, if the Packers signed Lazard to a tender or an extension, he would knock a player off the top 51 so his cost would be offset by the salary of that player, probably $705K at this point.

As a note, creativity is possible with any extensions, especially for players who missed a lot of game.  For example, Za'Darius Smith and to a lesser extent, Robert Tonyan, might not be as coveted as they had hoped.  In Smith's case, a $500K incentive for each sack would not count against his cap number.  Playing 19 snaps in 2022 might fully guarantee $1M of whatever base salary is inserted for his 2023 base salary, or used as an escalator.  However, if ZaDarius and/or Tonyan can command a substantial contract with significant guaranteed money, that might make these creative ideas moot.

On the low end, for offense and special teams, the Packers could save $35.438M.  On the high end, they could save $43.89M.  The Packers will look at the contract of each player of consequence and then mix and match to get under the cap.  The Packers might sign a blocking tight end from outside the organization, Tonyan or some other in-line tight end with receiving skills, some or all of Adams, Lazard, Valdes-Scantling, St. Brown, a swing tackle and/or utility interior offensive lineman, a punt or kick returner, plus a punter, kicker, and long snapper, but other than extension that produce cap savings, those additions will not take place (or at least be official) until after the new league year begins.

In a few days, I will look at how the puzzle pieces fit together.  Looking at the offense (and special teams), there are six to eight main actors involved in getting under the cap: Aaron Rodgers, David Bakhtiari, Billy Turner, Aaron Jones, Marcedes Lewis, Mason Crosby, perhaps Elgton Jenkins, and deciding on tagging Adams and tendering Lazard versus reaching extensions.

 

 

 

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9 points

Comments (97)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Lphill's picture

February 17, 2022 at 06:23 pm

So if Rodgers leaves so do all the skill players , that should work out well for Love , right?

-4 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 17, 2022 at 07:28 pm

Maybe better than you think. If Gutey were to draft a viable #1 and #2 WR this year, they could grow with 10. He's going to have to eventually and there is no time like the present.

7 points
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Oppy's picture

February 17, 2022 at 08:02 pm

If Rodgers stays we can't afford a viable team, so what's the point?

6 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 17, 2022 at 10:32 pm

I feel the same way Oppy, but if Gutey and Ball can figure out a way to do it without destroying the team, I wouldn't blame them for trying.

My hope, is AR decides to let the Packers off the hook and asks for a trade to Denver, or Carolina, or Tennessee, or Indy or wherever. That way, the Packers aren't the bad guys and we can start surrounding Love with young talent.

We won't have to wait too much longer to find out which way it's going to go.

5 points
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dobber's picture

February 18, 2022 at 09:57 am

"We won't have to wait too much longer to find out which way it's going to go."

Agreed: it appears the dominoes start to fall with the tagging period, but I think it's already figured out what's going to happen and how both sides will present it.

1 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 17, 2022 at 06:42 pm

Is it just wishful thinking all the talking heads saying we'll have Rodgers and Adams back? See, I believe TGR when he tells me something, but I'm afraid all the talking heads are right, and the FO of the GBPs are scared to death to go into next season without Adams. I believe they will tag him, out of fear that if Adams isn't on the team, AR will request a trade. Maybe he will, and that is why I wouldn't tag DA.

Rodgers, without a WR to throw to, doesn't sound like a good plan either.

I think the collective mind trust is delusional enough to think if they bring AR/DA back we'll be right back in the thick of it. (We probably will be, but unless we get very lucky, nothing will change.)

0 points
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dobber's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:00 am

I think this team will be talented enough to win division titles in 2022 and maybe 2023 mostly on the backs of returning offensive talent. That's a playoff berth and at least one home game...maybe they advance out of the WC round. I would argue that's what they buy in bringing #12/#17 back.

They'll keep picking in the low-mid 20s. They'll be filling holes with draft picks and UDFAs. Sound familiar? We've been here at least twice in the last 20 years.

2 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 17, 2022 at 06:45 pm

Well done TGR...

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 17, 2022 at 07:05 pm

Comprehensive review. I have to admit that that many references to void years (pay for no play) gives me heartburn.

Interesting thoughts on Jenkins, an issue I hadn’t thought of. I think, post injury, i’d go the tag route you propose and resign him after this season if all goes well. That could be a time where moving Bakh makes sense and may have more cap flexibility, though you are making me start to worry on that score.

One point, I don’t think Kaufusi is now a a Packer and is FA. He didn’t sign a futures contract this year, if offered one. I saw him as the logical successor to Lewis, so I was surprised.

3 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 17, 2022 at 08:01 pm

Agreed on Kaufusi. I should have pointed that out: anyone who finishes the season on the PS automatically becomes an unrestricted free agent as his former team loses all rights.
I didn't think of the futures in his case.

Kaufusi's minimum is $965K as well. I kind of figured that since GB is doing the experiment of turning him into a TE and thus they are the only team that has really seen him (other than some snaps in a preseason game - I still remember that difficult over-the-shoulder catch down the sidelines in a preseason game that he did not come down with - that GB is the only real player for Kaufusi.

It seems odd to me that replacing Kaufusi ($965K) with a UDFA TE like Alize Mack making $705K means the Packers just "found" $260K in cap space. But that is the way the system works.

3 points
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stockholder's picture

February 17, 2022 at 08:12 pm

They know Tonyan isn't the answer. He's NO Jared Cook or Finley. And Mercedes Lewis will be released, before they rework Crosby.

-4 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 17, 2022 at 09:47 pm

Do you just say exactly the wrong things on purpose? Are you really trolling us or do you actually believe the stuff you say? Serious Questions? Or is it more 70/30?

5 points
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jurp's picture

February 18, 2022 at 07:40 am

Based on his (I'm assuming) post later in this thread, I'd charitably say he posts stuff he reads from people who don't know what they're talking about and that he doesn't realize these people don't know what they're talking about.

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 18, 2022 at 09:45 am

I think it’s more complex than that. I see some wheat in the chaff, but highly erratic from post to post

“I’m so happy because today
I've found my friends
They're in my head
I'm so ugly, but that's okay, 'cause so are you
We've broken our mirrors
Sunday morning is everyday for all I care
And I'm not scared
Light my candles in a daze
'Cause I've found God”

Lithium-Curt Cobain

0 points
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marpag1's picture

February 18, 2022 at 08:51 am

Far be it from me to suggest that stockholder has a clue, but this comment you are reacting to is probably the most reasonable thing that stockholder has ever said. To this point in his career, no matter how you want to spin it, Tonyan is NOT a Jared Cook or a Jermichael Finley, and it really isn't close.

Let's compare yards per game: Tonyan's miserable 19.0 is nowhere close to Cook's 37.3 or Finley's 39.8.

Let's compare yards per catch. Tonyan ranks last of the three at 11.5, Finley was better at 12.5, and Cook was best at 13.1.

Let's compare TDs per game. At least this one is a horse race. Tonyan at 0.29 TDs per game is marginally better than Cook at 0.23, but a fraction less that Finley who is also at 0.29.

Let's compare their best seasons:
Tonyan - 52 catches for 586 yards, 11.3 average, 11 TDs.
Cook - 68 catches for 896 yards, 13.2 average and 6 TDs.
Finley - 55 catches for 767 yards, 13.9 average and 8 TDs.

Even if you look only at Tonyan's last two seasons (2020 and 2021), he still doesn't compare very favorably. His total yards were 790 in 24 games, which is 32.9 per game, which is still far below the career averages of Cook and Finley. Tonyan's average per catch actually drops in the past two years from 11.5 to 11.3. The only reason people are all bent out of shape about "Big Bob Tonyan" is that in 2020 he caught 11 TDs, which was a total aberration, and only 3 more than Finley caught in 2011.

Before getting hurt last year after 8 games, Tonyan was on pace for 408 yards and 4 TDs for a 16 game season. Not great. Not even good.

All three players were non-factors as blockers. As for availability, Cook played in 93% of possible games, Tonyan 80% and Finley 73%.

So what is it about stockholder's comment that you think is so unreasonable?

1 points
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dobber's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:03 am

Void years became broadly necessary across the league with the covid cap crunch and I agree: they're awful. I don't think they're going away until the next CBA. I think owners will want to curtail them once the cap starts growing again.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 19, 2022 at 09:49 am

Void years in moderation have been used by a number of teams for some time (we weren’t one of them). As with most things (other than good whisky according to Mark Twain), the absence of moderation can turn a health tonic poisonous.

2 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 17, 2022 at 06:58 pm

I hope they clean house... I hope they trade Rodgers, tag and trade DA, cut some high-priced contracts and roll with young drafted guys who can grow together into a team around Love...

But that's just me.

You can try and fight it, but it will happen eventually. MM, Gutey, and Ball trying to retain their jobs as long as they can. Not sure I blame them either. Who knows, with a good draft and a ton of luck, we might actually make and win the Super Bowl.

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 17, 2022 at 07:32 pm

If they do that and we don’t end up with a Super Bowl then I don’t think any survive. It’s going to be lean times indeed after we find the cap growth subsumed by the resulting void years.

3 points
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dobber's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:06 am

You're right on: all these void years and the continued pushing out of contracts required to keep it together "one more year" or "just until after 2023 when the cap explodes" fails to recognize that it explodes for everyone. The Packers will be bringing knives to gunfights in terms of signing their own--or other teams'-- players to contracts.

2 points
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k.rock87's picture

February 17, 2022 at 07:37 pm

But why hope for the "happen eventually" to happen now? I am not alone to want to see the greatest QB to play this game stay on the team I love until he retires! Go Pack Go!

1 points
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murf7777's picture

February 18, 2022 at 08:10 am

Ditto

-1 points
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murf7777's picture

February 18, 2022 at 08:16 am

What’s really funny is most wanted them to go “all in” for the past couple of years and now that they didn’t reach the SB they want draft picks and send Rodgers down the road. Yes, we will be in cap hell, but that was the case last year as well. If you keep Rodgers, IMO you have a 2 year window to get to the SB. A couple of draft picks are far from a sure thing, but Rodgers being one of the best to ever play is definitive. Go with the MVP and try for greatness.

-1 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:03 am

We went all in. That’s past. The roster will now inevitably decline. It’s like poker. Know when you are going to leave and don’t be beguiled into convincing yourself to keep playing the hand beyond that. To do otherwise is folly. That is the difference.

2 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 19, 2022 at 11:51 am

Well, if MM, Gutey, and Ball decide to go all-in for the next two years, you and I don't have much choice but to support them, no matter how stupid we think it is... ; )

It is easy to see if the Packers improve Special Teams significantly, cut dead weight, bring back AR, DA, Rasul, and Campbell, have a great draft, we could easily vie for the NFCC and the Super Bowl.

I don't have a clue what is going to happen, and just when I think I do, they do the exact opposite, so me speculating is a lost cause. If they do bring back AR, we definitely have a shot.

I guess if I were MM/Gutey/Ball/LeFleur and there was a shot of giving AR one last chance for a SB to finish off a stellar career, I might just take it, even if there might be some pain a couple years down the road.

I am good either way. Just a fan who enjoys the off-season almost as much as the regular season.

0 points
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dobber's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:13 am

EVERY YEAR is it's own window to reach the SB for every team. I don't think hardly anyone had the Bengals in their window at this point, and sometimes it opens. The Packers, if they get the band back together (in as much as they can) will likely be a less talented version of the previous teams we've watched fall short. They don't have an opening window...it's closing markedly from 2021 to 2022.

I have always argued ARod the commodity. I would've been looking hard at moving him after 2019 and figuring when that cap window made sense (not until after 2020). I would have been judged by most people as being wrong since he's earned 2 MVPs since (and, to be honest, I didn't anticipate a resurgence, but rather continued disharmony on offense--I can eat crow on that)...but neither of those MVPs turned into titles. So ask yourself--especially those out there who want to chime in about participation trophies--what was the right move? What's the right move now?

2 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 19, 2022 at 12:10 pm

I thought for sure they were going to trade AR and let DA walk, but it's looking less likely as I type.

IDK what will happen, but it's looking like they've made a decision to focus more on ST's so they shouldn't be the reason we lose next year. (That's a plus!)

We blew our chance to win it this year, but there is no doubt in my mind we could contend next year, especially if we have a decent draft and a bit of luck.

I would hate to go all-in this year and fall short again, but that's a probability every year.

Guess we'll see what's up soon. Once we do, we can contemplate every possibility from now until September.

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BruceC1960's picture

February 17, 2022 at 08:08 pm

How many years can you play the shell game? Seems like if they bring 12 & 17 back we will be in cap hell forever?

4 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 17, 2022 at 08:33 pm

We agree to a certain degree. Let's say AR is traded or he retires. GB probably loses Adams, as well. We've talked about the possibility of having one of those fabulous drafts that put a team into contention. NO's 2017 draft catapulted them into contention since they already had the QB in place. Denver's 2011 (Von Miller) and particularly their 2012 draft catapulted them into being a dominant defense.

The chance of having a great draft or two (either in the future, 2022 and/or 2023, or that the 2020 draft turns into a dream) are not great, but it is a possibility. Given that, I am not the biggest believer in the viability of a seamless transition from AR to Love. I'd clean house, fix the cap, make some trades to accumulate draft picks if AR leaves. I am fine with a hard landing in 2022 if AR is gone.

If AR returns, particularly if he pulls a Brady and agrees to play for a lot less money than he is worth, that is a different story. I have not been persuaded that AR can't win the big one or that his play on the field even during just playoff games means GB should move on.

2 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 17, 2022 at 10:47 pm

Hey - I think AR could've won it this year if our STs hadn't %'ed us! He didn't play his best, but nothing says he wouldn't have beaten the Rams and Cincy either.

I am on board if Gutey brings AR back, I just think the smarter play is to move on.

I'll be a Packer fan no matter what happens, I just hope it's all in or build for the future. No half measures. I want them to take a strategy and stick with it. I'm good either way, and I don't have the benefit of knowing what they're thinking, though I imagine we will soon.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 18, 2022 at 09:58 am

I differ. I think you are partially right about this year, but STs wasn’t the whole story. I thought we had a legitimate chance the year before also. Both involved better rosters than we will have going forward (barring a generational draft AND generational SFA signings for the second year in a row).

If one ever finds oneself hoping for such unlikely possibilities as those to justify a decision, it’s time slap oneself and get back to reality. Keeping Rodgers also means denying questions we’ve failed to address three years in a row in terms of play and coaching.

The only thing that comes from keeping Rodgers with a lesser roster with certainty is a dramatically deeper and longer period of pain. If you think Rodgers plus less offers a worthwhile shot to win it all then may as well put your life savings on green on a Vegas roulette wheel. Denying the past, fighting the cap and Father Time to boot.

3 points
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dobber's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:16 am

There's your winner...and eloquently stated.

1 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

February 18, 2022 at 12:46 am

You have a lot more faith in Love than I do. I'm not ready to write him off completely like some people are but his accuracy issues are a big concern. Josh Allen improved in that regard but it's pretty rare, guys usually revert to what their used to technique wise under pressure. If Rodgers does leave in a trade to Denver I'd use that 9th pick to trade for a 1st rounder next year and some lower picks this year. Than if Love proves conclusively he's not the man they have ammo to get a top QB next year.

-1 points
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murf7777's picture

February 18, 2022 at 08:21 am

I disagree about it is “pretty rare” for a QB to improve their completion %. Take a look at Peyton Mannings as an example. His first year was 56%. His 2nd - 4th was around 62% before the rest of his career around 67%. That’s a more normal progression of an NFL QB than one who comes right out and hits 67% completion rate.

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LLCHESTY's picture

February 20, 2022 at 02:19 am

I wasn't talking about completion percentage, I was talking about mechanics. I don't remember seeing Manning in his first couple years in the league but I do remember watching him when he was at Tennessee and I don't remember him ever looking as inaccurate as Love often looks. Even during his crappy games against Florida.

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Coldworld's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:24 am

Precisely. Love is a sunk draft cost. His pick is history. He’s cheap and disposable. If he doesn’t make it, it’s not ideal, but we move on and the league system starts to work in our favor. Is not winning with Love worse than not winning with Rodgers? Maybe transiently, but it’s a whole lot less significant in the long run.

0 points
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dobber's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:22 am

There are several younger, cheap QBs on the market who are FAs or likely to be available by trade that make the QB situation in GB far less 'Love or bust', and a smart front office will look to make one of those moves going into 2022. To be honest, if I'm a Marcus Mariota or a Mitchell Trubisky or a Gardner Minshew, I look at GB as being a potential fast-track to playing time--and Mariota has played with LaF--and a good opportunity.

If #12 comes back, I think it will be a poor move by management, but I will still root for the Packers and hope he plays well. If not? I don't care who QBs the Packers going forward, so long as it's the best player and the best growth opportunity for the team.

...and that he can continue to own the Bears and the Vikings.

2 points
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MarkinMadison's picture

February 17, 2022 at 07:10 pm

Yeah there is nothing here to get happy about. A lot of bad choices. I guess that is a major reason why I'm in favor of pulling off the band-aid and trading #12. The draft picks he would bring could help fill the cupboard with some fresh talent. 2022 might suck but there would be hope for the future. Delaying the inevitable by 2-3 years would only lead to a total cap crash at a later date and with no appreciable draft picks to show for it.

In other non-news, apparently #12's career is so busy that he doesn't have time to get married. I guess that takes the threat of retirement off the table.

4 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 17, 2022 at 07:35 pm

He has all summer to find a new mark.

3 points
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stockholder's picture

February 17, 2022 at 07:35 pm

The cap will increase to cover the 20 mil. (Inflation) Patrick, Kelly,Summers ,Burks and Borjoquez are gone. If Adams is "Franchised." MVS, Lazard, St.Brown, and Tonyan are gone. Cobb will be resigned after they cut him. Expect reworking of the contracts to the Smiths, Amos and Clark. ( Z. Smith will get an opportunity to stay like P. Smith per last year.) And Bahk is a big question mark. Campbell and Douglass won't be back. (Somebody will make them an offer they can't refuse.). The choice here is; Adams or a Defense!;

-5 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:10 am

The cap is set for this year. The tv revenue people rely on us anticipated to be phased in from 2024 over about 3 years, primarily.

1 points
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packerbackerjim's picture

February 17, 2022 at 07:38 pm

A scenario I’ve imagined is Bahktiari being traded, as there are several teams desperate to improve their OL, but I have no idea of the cap implications. Nijman’s play in 2021 at least would make it palatable should this scenario play out. There are many unpleasant developments which will occur this offseason, with the objective to have the Packers in the best possible position going forward.

-2 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 17, 2022 at 08:54 pm

Trading Bakh was in my first draft, but it was two paragraphs long and got excised. The problem is that Bakh has a $9.5M roster bonus due on March 20th. OTC's number treat it like it is base salary payable over the course of the season, but it isn't, and it make all their numbers wrong if you hit their buttons for pre-june, and post june trades and releases.

So.... Bakh cannot be traded until the new league year, March 16. Trading Bakh on March 18th results in a negative cap savings of $4.1M, that is, GB would have $4.1M less in cap space. Trading Bakh on March 21st means a $13.6M negative cap savings because they would have paid $9.5M to Bakh on the 20th. Once the money is in the player's hands, it is immutable. Now, Bakh could agree to change the date the $9.5M is due to June 2nd or later.

If Bakh is traded June 2nd the Packers would gain $3.235M in 2022 cap space while having a dead money hit of $17.536M in 2023. Now, if Bakh deferred payment of his roster bonus to say July and the acquiring team agreed to pay that $9.5M (this affects the compensation the acquiring team would offer to the Packers), then the Packers would gain $3.235M plus $$9.5, so about $12.7M. They'd have a dead money his of $17.536M in 2023.

I don't approve of trading Bakh because I think Nijman is an average at best starting LT. I would want Love to have a good solid OL so GB can assess him properly. Too many rookie QBs run for their lives their first year and accrue bad habits and lose the ability to properly develop. Though Allen and Burrow seem to have weathered lousy OLs, but then, they were top overall draft picks. All that said, if some team with a top 15 first round pick in this draft offered it for Bakh (and AR is gone), that might be too good to pass up. If the trade couldn't be official until June that doesn't prevent the acquiring team from drafting the guy GB would want in the top 15. Just trade the rights.

Anyway, the length of this comment is why the Bakh trade scenario got edited out of the article.

3 points
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packerbackerjim's picture

February 17, 2022 at 09:37 pm

Thanks for the analysis. Cincinnati and the Jags would be obvious candidates but 31st or 34 Th overall picks won’t be adequate return., The Giants could be a possible trade partner with either one of 2 attractive 1st round picks, and a need for a solid, All-Pro OT.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 17, 2022 at 10:43 pm

Another thought: if Bakh would agree to defer his roster bonus payment date so the Packers can get more immediate cap relief with a post june trade, in return he might ask for a veto over a trade. I think that's reasonable. Bakh might not want to play for Houston, after all. Perhaps he lists some teams he would agree to report to, or it could be a standard no trade clause. I assume he'd only be open to a trade if AR leaves. He has to know that Adams and he can't both follow AR to Denver or where ever AR ends up in this scenario. Too much money, too many draft picks for that.

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Coldworld's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:14 am

We need Bakh this year. I think the time to trade him is next year. I see Nijman at right and Bakh at left to start the year. I just don’t see us keeping Turner due to cap and I think Kelly gets more elsewhere too. Jenkins is not going to be available to start the year.

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 18, 2022 at 11:25 am

I don't disagree. But for the 11th pick in this draft, I might move Bakh this year rather than guess where that first will be next year, assuming Bakh returns, is dominant again, and doesn't get hurt.

I want Bakh so Love/Minshew/Mariotta (well not Mariotta so much) can get a fair shake and a fair evaluation, and not develop bad habits from running for his life. If traded, Nijman at LT and probably keep Turner.

Lots of people want to franchise and flip Adams for a first, but that requires freeing up $20M but GB would only have to free up $4M to get a first for Bakh. Much more doable.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 19, 2022 at 09:56 am

You are more skeptical if Nijman than I. If we do move to Love, I’d be OK starting Nijman at LT next year—he kept Rodgers upright and is an asset in the run game. But. if that means keeping Turner is that really a saving this year? Maybe if we can resign Kelly and find another serviceable depth T till Jenkins returns?

With Rodgers, Bakh Is going nowhere. Arguably we could have had him and MVS against the 49ers if Rodgers hadn’t essentially demanded both play a half versus Detroit (as Bakh essentially admitted).

0 points
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crayzpackfan's picture

February 18, 2022 at 11:51 am

How about a crazy ass trade of Rodgers to Philly for all three of their round one picks giving us 4? Lol

1 points
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dobber's picture

February 18, 2022 at 01:17 pm

Not so crazy...

Have them throw in Minshew (or even Hurts) and it looks pretty good.

1 points
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crayzpackfan's picture

February 18, 2022 at 02:17 pm

We could even trade a couple of those picks out of the first round for a lot more future 1-4’s. Or, let’s really dial up the crazy and trade all 4 to get up to the top 3 in this years draft. Lol. Kidding

0 points
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Oppy's picture

February 17, 2022 at 07:59 pm

TGR, when you say the Packers could use the tag on Lazard, do you mean placing a tender offer on him?

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 17, 2022 at 10:43 pm

Yes. Good catch. Tag, tender, they are kind of similar. Yet they are specific to each situation and clarity would be enhanced with an edit. -- okay, edit has been made.

2 points
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stockholder's picture

February 18, 2022 at 08:24 am

.

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BruceC1960's picture

February 17, 2022 at 08:12 pm

I guess bringing Tom Clemens back makes AR back much more likely.

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 17, 2022 at 09:05 pm

Stars are aligning? You don't think GB thinks Clements is just the guy to whisper into Love's ears? You think this is done to persuade AR to return?

Very likely. I don't know if it will work. And I don't know if I am impugning Clements abilities.
He retired in 2017, but got hired in ARI as Passing Game Coordinator for Kingsbury, who is the offensive guru anyway, so ARI doesn't have an OC. Clement retired in January of 2021 from ARI. That may be something to do with ARI's 8-8 2020 season, or a problem between Clements and Kingsbury/Kyler Murray. All we know is his retirement lasted one year.

Clements is not a nobody or just a retread from the McCarthy era. Murray, drafted in 2019, got better. He has not been out of the game for any significant length of time. He is 68 years old, though.

3 points
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jurp's picture

February 18, 2022 at 07:02 am

Clements' return is interesting in that you can read it in two opposite ways: He's back because the team thinks that AR would like him to be his coffee-bring... er, coach again, or he's back because the team remembers how much he improved Rodgers' during his early development. I actually suspect the latter - IMO, the last thing AR wants is a true QB coach. In either case, I count this as "win" for the team.

4 points
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dobber's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:27 am

Exactly...however the worm turns, Clements seems to be a solid play.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 18, 2022 at 11:28 am

Clements was QB coach in 2006 and 2007, years when Favre had a resurgence. We give credit to MM for that, but Clements was in the building, as well.

0 points
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Wilment's picture

February 17, 2022 at 08:52 pm

Salary cap reads like a VCR manual.....If AR goes, then an effort to retain some quality bodes around Love is a must .

0 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 17, 2022 at 09:08 pm

I reach the opposite conclusion on the same facts! Dump salary and players on defense. Give Love as much as possible on offense so he can be assessed properly. That means keeping Bakh and Turner. I don't think Adams would stay anyway w/o Rodgers, so add some WRs and TEs. But lose Z and P and Lowry and Campbell and Douglas. Yeah, crappy defense probably results. I am okay with that.

0 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 17, 2022 at 10:03 pm

I think you're half right. ; ) We don't need Turner, but we do need Campbell and Douglas. I think we should definitely surround Love with at least 2 WRs... (A #1 and a #2...) Plus a TE. I'm all in on the Salary Dumps of some of the guys you mentioned, but we can't decimate our defense. Too tired to give a complete rundown right this minute, but you get my drift.

If we trade AR, tag and trade Davante, we can have our young drafted guys of the future around Love this season and beyond. I really want Gutey to use our #9 pick from Denver on defense and our #28 pick on a #1 WR for Love to start his career. Then I want to take the 2nd round pick we get for DA and use it on our #2 WR of the future. : )

I could go on all night, but I have an early morning.

2 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 17, 2022 at 10:58 pm

I think you want to have your cake and eat it, too. But I will peruse what you write as to how you would mix and match.

You think I am half right, and I think you're one-third right! 🤣

2 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 18, 2022 at 09:10 am

I only want 9/16ths of the cake... ; )

When I think back to the Divisional game, I was very surprised to see Turner at LT. I'm afraid they played him at LT instead of Yosh so they didn't hurt Turner's feelings... I think they were dead wrong to play Turner at LT.

AR, DA, Turner, Z, Preston, Cobb, ESB, Marcedes, Burks, Lancaster, all gone...

If we could trade AR, tag-n-trade DA, that would go a long way to fixing our cap issues the way I understand them.

David Bakhtiari - I was under the impression we couldn't trade him this year, but if they can find a way to do it and not suffer tremendous dead money, I'm on board with that too.

I am usually wrong when it comes to what I think Gutey will do, so who the hell knows? ; )

1 points
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dobber's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:41 am

"When I think back to the Divisional game, I was very surprised to see Turner at LT."

Some say the Packers were thinking run game or a specific offensive approach when they chose Turner and Kelly at OT and Patrick at G for the divisional round, but I think the Packers chose experience in the playoff game vs. a stout SF front over youth: they pushed Newman to
the bench and Nijman, too, in deference to Turner and Patrick.

"AR, DA, Turner, Z, Preston, Cobb, ESB, Marcedes, Burks, Lancaster, all gone...If we could trade AR, tag-n-trade DA"

The tag-and-trade idea with #17 is dicey because so much more cap needs to be cleared, but as soon as you move him, you get all that space back. How long can you live with #17 occupying $20M of cap space? Certainly as soon as he's gone, you're $20M under the cap. Stefon Diggs brought a huge haul (for a WR) for the Vikes and he was well-known as being an unhappy guy who needed a big contract. Anything better than a late 3rd--so long as the cap clearing isn't too painful--is a plus for Adams.

Another thing to think about is that Denver--the purported preferred landing spot for #12 (which now is likely wide open with Shailene grazing greener pastures)--is desperately looking for edge help this off-season. We talk about a #12/#17 deal to Denver, but sending Z or P Smith out there meets needs for both teams.

"David Bakhtiari -"
If the Packers bring back #12, he's not going anywhere for at least a year.

1 points
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jurp's picture

February 18, 2022 at 07:07 am

No offense, TGR, and I can understand your logic, but decimating the defense in favor of the offense will lead us directly back to the 1980s Bart Starr-led Packers. We had some pretty good offenses back then, but the defense couldn't get out of its own way.

I think BDU has the right idea. Yeah. 22 will be painful, but we'll get better draft choices in 23 that we can then use to replace more highly paid players. We would probably end up with the youngest team in the league by 24, with ALL of the good players on rookie contracts. Two-three years of winning will ensue, given adequate coaching.

2 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 18, 2022 at 09:21 am

We could end up with youngest team in the NFL in '22 if we want to... Just saying!

The only old dude we really have to keep it seems is David Bakhtiari?

I have no idea what Gutey will do, and it's likely he will piss me off, but it will be interesting at the very least. : P

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 18, 2022 at 11:44 am

I am a numbers guy, not a player eval type or an Xs and Os guy. I claim no extra competence in the latter two things, so disagree away.

I presented the numbers, and you understand the options. You understood my logic, and I believe I understand your logic. I drew different conclusions, but I write often that you should never let an accountant run your business. The numbers do not dictate in which direction the Packers should go. They do suggest several different avenues that could be pursued, nothing more.

The Packers are close to having a good defense, so if you want a respectable record in 2022, keep Campbell and Preston perhaps Douglas, and it should keep GB in games.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:36 am

In a broad sense I agree if I’m right as to your objective. Your thrust seems to be that we would decide to hard reset our cap position to restock in 2023. If that harder reset is chosen it may be for the best long term, especially if Love is not promising. Give Love players he can grow with and protection. See what he can do and maximize future flexibility.

To be honest, If that’s the approach I think I’d shed Jones too and Turner. Dillon can carry the load with Taylor and Hill for a season. On D, we should be drafting DL and LB early though. We need to add credible talent there to develop if that’s the path we take. This year I’d keep Benkert as back up if we are focused on clearing cap, as i am not impressed with the QBs. Next year we might look to add competition.

1 points
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dobber's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:44 am

If #12 goes, figure out those players who are part of your longer term plan and be flexible with everyone else.

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 18, 2022 at 11:47 am

I at least touched on the notion of trading Aaron Jones and Turner. Depends on what you can get for them, whether you think Dillon, Hill and Patrick Taylor (and perhaps draft pick or UDFA/UFA) are sufficient to fairly assess Love, and whether Bakh and Nijman at RT is a decent way to go. Lots of teams don't have any backup OTs and that starting duo is probably above average.

1 points
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dobber's picture

February 18, 2022 at 01:22 pm

For what the Packers paid for Turner up front in 2019 (when everyone said they'd overpaid), he's now a bargain (and was last year, too)--especially considering the cash value he'd be owed in 2022 by the acquiring team. I think they'd get some inquiries if they dangled him.

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:32 am

Duplicate.

-1 points
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Since'61's picture

February 17, 2022 at 09:00 pm

Good job TGR!!! I appreciate your hard work to bring us up to date on where we stand on offense concerning the cap. I have no idea how it will all play out but at least now we have a frame of reference for considering the numerous scenarios. Thanks, Since '61

4 points
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dobber's picture

February 18, 2022 at 11:00 am

Glad you weren't serious about taking a hiatus from CHTV, friend!

0 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 17, 2022 at 09:49 pm

One issue is that readers don't see all of the contracts that would be necessary to make keeping the team intact possible. For example, Preston Smith's extension might look kind of ugly to some. Tacking on 4 years at $15M per year would be a normal free agent type of deal. They always look a little iffy just in general. But here, GB would be suppressing his cap number in 2022. He has a $19.72 cap number. $7.25M comes off due to already scheduled prorations. The $12.5M in cash he is due is suppressed down to $3.396M (that is, his new proration for transforming $12.5M in cash due into a minimum base plus a proration, or $2.276M + $1.12M minimum base salary). That reduces his cap charge due to keeping him in 2022 from $12.5M down to $3.396 by $9.1M. So now GB has to stuff $9.1M into the cap charges that will be scheduled for 2023, 2024, 1025 and 2026 for a 30 year old OLB. It isn't awful since it averages out over the length of the contract to an extra cap charge of $2.25M per year.

The problem is that there are 8 more contract that look "kind of ugly" to do to keep all of these players. There isn't enough space (not to mention reader's interest) in an article to just lay out in tables what Bakh;s, Amos', Turner's, AR's, Alexander's, Preston's, Clark's, Jones', Lowry's, Jenkins', Lewis' contracts will look if all of their cap numbers for 2022 have to be artificially suppressed.

Ditto for all of the players GB would like to re-sign. Adams, Campbell, Douglas, Lazard, MVS, Tonyan - all of their contracts are going to look "kind of ugly" to fit them in.

Each individual contract might look just sort of homely rather than downright ugly. Things look ugly when you list all of them together.

3 points
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BruceC1960's picture

February 17, 2022 at 10:38 pm

TGR, do you see any way to keep AR and DA without mortgaging the future?

0 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

February 17, 2022 at 10:57 pm

I don't, but also don't think it can be done.

That's why I'm for trading AR and tagging DA and trading him too...

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 17, 2022 at 11:54 pm

No.

Edit: that deserves more than a one-word answer. IF Adams gets $25M AAV, could GB work a $10M first year cap hit in to their salary cap? I suppose they could. I'd have to put all these numbers for each of the players I've identified as significant actors into a spreadsheet (remembering that each of them has multiple possible numbers attached to each of them - Bakh has zero, $6.33M is popular, and $9M + as possible numbers), then mix and match to see how that might work out. Without doing that, keeping Adams definitely means doing something elsewhere because they have to get a reduction of $51M or more by March 16. I don't want to write that keeping Adams means not re-signing Campbell, or letting turner and Amos go, but something of that nature looks necessary.

If GB does keep DA and AR, maybe it lasts for 3 years, maybe 4 years. When AR retires or just declines, he probably will have a huge dead money hit. The contracts today might not have big dead money hits scheduled down the road (they probably will, but be that as it may), but GB will convert base to signing bonuses in 2023 and 2024 (most likely) in both AR's deal and DA's contract, at least if the team is winning, and/or getting deep into the playoffs and certainly if they are reaching or winning super bowls. If AR retires after the 2024 season, he probably has a huge dead money hit that accelerates. What to do with DA? He gets traded, or perhaps he regresses over time. He'd be 32 in December of 2025. Has he lost a step after the '22, '23 and '24 seasons? I think he is a good candidate to remain very good for a long time - route running stays and so does the knowledge about footwork for his release off the line but his quickness to execute that footwork might decline some. At that time, you're probably looking at a hard fall due to the cap, sort of like what NO is about to go through. Last year NO did a lot of extensions and also let a couple three players walk, but now the extension route is less available. [NO went 9-8 with not much at QB; I will be interested in what they do to get under the cap this year and how they fare in 2022. I think Payton is a very fine HC. Payton walking away for 2022 is interesting - is he a canary sniffing the air? I am surprised NO went 9-8 but they did try to win by keeping some players I thought they should have let go - the rip the band-aid thought. NO's win/loss record in 2022 will be interesting.]

I am working on a final article in this series as to how the puzzle pieces might fit. Keeping DA and AR will be addressed as a possible contingency.

0 points
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jurp's picture

February 18, 2022 at 07:12 am

Given all of your work and the fact that you mentioned "spreadsheet" in your answer, the teams all HAVE to have software to do all of this. If they don't, then they're crazy! As a former (minor) VB developer (yes I was both a writer and a developer - for a few years), I'd love to see this application!

2 points
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Since'61's picture

February 18, 2022 at 08:24 am

jurp - each team has their own modeling software. The difference would be that each team will have a few different variables from each other depending on their circumstances. And those variables can change from season to season.

The software enables the teams to model different scenarios which help the team make their personnel
decisions .

If you think this is crazy you should see the modeling programs for mergers and acquisitions which can include hundreds and sometimes thousands of variables and can go out as far as 20-30 years. Stay safe.
Thanks, Since '61

2 points
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Coldworld's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:42 am

Yes. That is the unpalatable reality. One thing i miss in there is that if Rodgers were to get injured and be unable to play or change his mind about doing so, that structure explodes the cap calamitously. Rodgers would have unlimited leverage and injury could blow up everything.

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 17, 2022 at 11:15 pm

One thing more: one or more of these players could throw a monkey wrench into these plans. For example, if Jaire Alexander just won't agree to an extension, that would derail the plans of every media person since they all seem to assume $5M or more in cap savings from Jaire.

He probably wouldn't do that. A $30M signing bonus is coming his way versus $13M guaranteed on his 5th year option. Personal reasons could intervene: one of his family members contracts a terminal disease and he wants to move back to his hometown for the 2023 season. He might just hate a coach or not like living in Green Bay, or not want to be part of a rebuild.

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LLCHESTY's picture

February 18, 2022 at 12:54 am

With Clements returning as QB coach it's looking more and more like Rodgers is coming back. At 68 I doubt Clements is interested in a rebuild either. TGR makes a good case for Adams being gone but the FO dynamics would certainly be interesting if Rodgers comes back and Adams doesn't. I'm still not sure how they'd even fit a tag and trade in.

I was going to help TGR out with a short STs overview-🤮! It makes sense to release Crosby but if their trying to run it back(again) that might be a little nerve racking with a rookie K.

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jurp's picture

February 18, 2022 at 07:36 am

As I've posted above, Clements' return is interesting. Personally, I don't actually think his return is pandering to AR. I think he's back to help Love (and Benkert), not Rodgers. Remember, AR said that he, alone, improved his process and performance after 2019 - he didn't need no stinking coach to help him

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stockholder's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:28 am

YOU FINALLY GOT SOMETHING RIGHT HERE. I think he's back to help Love (and Benkert), not Rodgers. DIDN'T I WRITE THAT EARLIER. PER- WHY; CLEMENTS SHOULD BE OFFERED THE JOB. YOU DO PAY ATTENTION.

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Coldworld's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:47 am

Yes you did. That’s the problem with savants though, it’s hard to notice the nuggets in the midst of the tumult. You are our Nostradamus perhaps.

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LLCHESTY's picture

February 20, 2022 at 02:26 am

Meh. Clements is 68, I don't think he's going to be sticking around for any long term projects.

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LLCHESTY's picture

February 18, 2022 at 01:03 am

Just a reminder-this draft is really deep at Edge and TE. WR isn't quite as top heavy or as deep as the last couple years but there is good talent into the 4th round, which is probably the new normal with today's college offenses. IDL is better than the last couple years but still not very deep and there's not much talent in FA either. I expect D linemen to go earlier than most lists have them going.

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stockholder's picture

February 18, 2022 at 07:30 am

Wrong - It's WR and edge.

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jurp's picture

February 18, 2022 at 07:37 am

If you say "WR and Edge", then it's anything BUT WR and Edge.

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stockholder's picture

February 18, 2022 at 08:20 am

I'm in your kitchen. Thats all I care about.

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dobber's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:45 am

Then you weren't part of the answer to Cliff Clavin's Jeopardy question.

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LLCHESTY's picture

February 20, 2022 at 02:32 am

No, you are the one who is wrong! But seriously this draft isn't as top heavy or as deep as 2019 was for WRs. It's probably the new normal for them actually with college offenses these days. A lot of college offenses don't use anything but move TEs if they use them at all, hence a deep draft for TEs.

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stockholder's picture

February 18, 2022 at 12:57 pm

Devante Adams should be Gone. If Rodgers comes back. It won't be because of Adams. It will be because this Division is weak. He stands better chance to win a 3rd straight MVP without Adams.

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Oppy's picture

February 18, 2022 at 07:16 pm

Okay, I'll bite.

How does the lack of Adams increase Rodgers' chances of a 3rd straight MVP?

I'll also add a comment: If Rodgers is making decisions based on the goal of winning a 3rd straight MVP, I don't want him anywhere near this team.

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stockholder's picture

February 18, 2022 at 10:02 pm

We are only playing to win the division anyway. 1 and done. At least thats what all the Rodgers haters are saying. Nobody can cover Adams in this Division. It's weak compared to the others. So Rodgers will get a better chance if he throws it around. And wins the division with lesser talent..

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