What Could Packers Actually Get For Aaron Rodgers in 2022?
Could they get enough in a trade to stay competitive?
By KenLass
The national talking heads are doing what they get paid to do. Mainly, overreacting. Many of them are loudly adamant that the Packers are positioning themselves to move on from Aaron Rodgers after the 2021 season. They point to the Packers' hesitation to restructure or extend Rodgers' contract.
This is nonsense. Rodgers will be Green Bay's signal caller for as long as he continues to play at a high level, and there's no reason to believe he can't do that for several more seasons. Plus there are reports the team is indeed working on some sort of contract adjustment.
But since it's the offseason, and news is slow, let's go with it just for fun. Let's imagine Green Bay does plan to trade their future Hall of Famer after next season. What exactly could they get for him? What should they demand for him? What is the going rate for an elite quarterback?
Let's see....the Lions got two first round picks, a third rounder, and a quarterback for Matthew Stafford. Stafford is good, but certainly not on Rodgers' level. The Texans and Seahawks both claim their quarterbacks, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson, are not on the market, yet Watson has flatly stated he won't play another game for Houston, and Wilson's agent has gone public with a list of teams that he would be amenable to playing for. It is widely speculated that it would take three first round picks, and a quarterback, to make a trade for either of them.
So, it's reasonable to think that the Packers could expect the same, if not more, for QB12. Three firsts and a QB. You are General Manager Brian Gutekunst. Do you take that deal? It would probably depend on where and when the picks are, and who the replacement quarterback is. Let's speculate about some scenarios.
The 49ers just traded up to the number three spot in the coming draft, so they are going to draft their future quarterback. But we're just spitballing here, so let's imagine the Niners offer Green Bay three first rounders and throw in Jimmy Garopollo. Would you take that deal?
How about the Miami Dolphins? What if they offered three first rounders and threw in Tua Tagovailoa? As Howie Mandel would say, Deal or No Deal?
The New York Jets could offer three firsts and Sam Darnold. The Jaguars are going to draft Trevor Lawrence with the number one pick. What if the Jags offer the Packers three firsts and Lawrence? Or Gardner Minshew? Carolina could approach with three firsts and Teddy Bridgewater.
Since Green Bay already has a quarterback prospect in Jordan Love, the throw-in player wouldn't have to be a quarterback. What if the Broncos offered three firsts and threw in Von Miller? You would never trade Rodgers to the Bears, right? But what if they offered three firsts and Akiem Hicks? Would you be tempted?
The possibilities are endless, but let's consider how the Packers would actually rebuild in such a scenario. If they decided Love was not going to be good enough, they could package some of these first round picks to move to almost anywhere they wanted to in the draft and take a signal caller. Keep in mind also that all but $17 million of Rodgers' salary would come off the books. So, presumably, the team would have some cash to go free agent shopping for a serviceable quarterback, or some other valuable addition.
Here's another possibility. Maybe by the end of 2021 the relationship between Deshaun Watson and/or Russell Wilson with their teams becomes untenable. What if Seattle offers Wilson for Rodgers straight up? Or Houston offers Watson for Rodgers straight up? Would you do it?
Again, to be clear, all of this is just slow news day speculation. I really don't believe the Packers want to trade Arod after 2021, nor do I think they should. But the team will face this situation at some point in the future. The longer they wait, the less they will get in return.
When do you pull the trigger?
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
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Comments (65)
Fabio
March 29, 2021 at 06:33 am
All the possibilities you mentioned are why I don't understand LOVE's choice if you really want to quit Rodgers ....
Coldworld
March 29, 2021 at 07:33 am
Love either will or won’t be a good QB, but he will be cheaper than Rodgers and the Packers will need that if Rodgers career doesn’t end in gradual decline. The concept is one of insurance and Love is apparently someone that the Packers believe could be a much better player than his draft cost. Accept that logic and the pick makes sense.
It would be negligent not to have a back up plan in the event of Rodgers declining or simply being unable to continue to play at a high due to injury. The reason it is controversial is it was a first rounder and, in addition, one who has a very high ceiling but not necessarily a very high floor.
The Packers believe that he, like Rodgers did when drafted, has great talent but needs some work. They were right about Rodgers and rolled the dice. If they are right about Love the worst will be some very nice compensation. The best would be too much to hope for. If they are wrong it will be a mid first round bust. They happen but don’t get forgotten.
None of us know what Love will be. Eerily similar to Rodgers a year in except with no on field evidence to support the doubters. It is what it is, a high risk pick with some logic and only the future will tell us if the risk was worth taking.
Guam
March 29, 2021 at 09:04 am
Gute knows that he will have to replace Rodgers at some point, if for no other reason than Rodgers' retirement. Rodgers is 37 and probably has 3-7 more years to play, depending on health, performance and desire.
Gute took the first bite at the apple with Love. As CW pointed out, either Love works out or he doesn't. If he does, Gute gets to trade Rodgers for draft choices and build around Love. If he doesn't work out, Gute still has Rodgers and probably time to draft and develop another replacement QB. Given the failure rate of highly drafted QBs, that is a pretty good plan for the Packers' future.
Certainly a lot better plan than signing an Andy Dalton after your first round QB bombs....... Gotta love those Bears!
flackcatcher
March 30, 2021 at 03:17 pm
"...Gotta love those Bears!" (Need more popcorn... :-)
RCPackerFan
March 29, 2021 at 06:36 am
"What Could Packers Actually Get For Aaron Rodgers in 2022?"
They should just go for a conditional 7th round pick and move on from him. Rodgers is holding us back. If it wasn't for Rodgers, we would have been in the Super Bowl. Love is is the guy now. We should really trade Rodgers this year before the draft. Or wait until after the draft and collect a conditional pick next year.
Yup. Time to move on.
RCPackerFan
March 29, 2021 at 07:19 am
For the Record. I'm being facetious.
I'm just tired of none stop articles of people deciding when its time for Rodgers to go, what they should trade him for and how soon. It just gets nauseating.
None of us know when he will be leaving GB. Whether its his own choice or the Packers, we have no idea. If he keeps playing like he did last year, it won't be any time soon. If he reverts back to the previous couple of years, it will be sooner. Sure we can talk about it, but at what point is it purely overkill.
I will admit, I'm burnt out from it already. I didn't even read the article, no offense to the author, I'm just tired of it.
Coldworld
March 29, 2021 at 07:42 am
I hear you. I’d add that Rodgers’ career could end in one play as well as decline, or he could just decide to walk away. I don’t think he is a guy whose problem will be to find something to do without football.
In my view recent losses have had more to do with coaching than Roster, yet we persist in speculating on this based, I presume, upon cap gymnastics ( latest excuse).
I wish the NFL hadn’t pushed the draft later. The off season seems more painful with such a gap with little to do but build castles in the air.
RCPackerFan
March 29, 2021 at 10:02 am
Planning ahead is never a wrong thing especially at QB. Just look at the QB situations around the league. You don't want to wait until you have the first pick in the draft to draft a QB. Only to find out that it was the wrong one and 5 years down the road you are drafting another 1 with the first pick.
I'm not saying Love will be the right choice (so far Gutey hasn't been great in evaluations of QB's it would seem with reports of him wanting to draft Drew Lock last year, trading for Deshone Kizer), but if he thinks he could be the next Rodgers, he made the right choice. Allowing him time to develop is also the right thing.
The truth is Rodgers had 2 down years. Sure his stats looked ok, but his play was subpar from years previously. He had 2 down years in a row, and you just don't know when the wheels are going to fall off. This year he did a 180 and got back to doing what we all have known him to do. Maybe part of that was from them selecting Love. We shouldn't blame the Packers for drafting Love, if they thought Rodgers was rapidly declining and if they thought Love has the chance to be the next version of Rodgers.
The biggest thing we all need to do is stay calm and be patient. The Packers aren't pushing Rodgers out the door if he plays like he is. They are not turning the keys over to Lambeau to Love until they know whether or not he can drive the car. And stop speculating on when Rodgers is going to be leaving GB.
dobber
March 29, 2021 at 09:16 am
Otherwise known as Bizarro RCPackerFan.
This must have caused you tremendous pain to type...
RCPackerFan
March 29, 2021 at 11:14 am
lol.
Not really. It was all a joke.
Hence the reason why i replied to it to make sure everyone knows I was being facetious with it.
Doug_In_Sandpoint
March 29, 2021 at 10:16 am
I thought you were probably being facetious but I wasn’t sure what that meant.
wsn
March 29, 2021 at 11:18 am
I thought it was love under a pseudonym. Jj
stockholder
March 29, 2021 at 07:05 am
I don't believe they need anything for Rodgers. Gute just wants his salary. We have a GM who doesn't use his draft picks wisely anyways. Why trade for anything when you can buy it?
RCPackerFan
March 29, 2021 at 07:12 am
Please explain "We have a GM who doesn't use his draft picks wisely anyways."
How doesn't he use his draft picks wisely?
stockholder
March 29, 2021 at 07:31 am
Gives up extra picks. He didn't need to give a 1 and 3 for savage. 1 and 4 for Love, A 3and 4 for Burks. Per Walters- Love was rated as a second round pick. After reading Walters - He's a Bust. Savage was a reach. Thornhill was the better rated safety.(All Rookie Team) Burks a Bust. And Landry should have been the trade up before taking Jackson. Now where was your Needs? DL and ILB! Burks was not a fix. And he should of grabbed the Dl before Savage. Last years draft was a head scratcher. But as long as their is a vacancy. The fix is in the eye of Gute. just don't plan on winning it all, until he gets serious about that DL.
PF4L
March 29, 2021 at 08:53 am
I believe that stockholder answered RCPackerfan's question more than adequately.
There is no rule....that the truth can't be told.
Most...of the time that people click on thumbs down and don't comment, it's highly likely, that some truth was dispensed.
RCPackerFan
March 29, 2021 at 11:13 am
Well the problem with that thinking is the Packers didn't give up a 1 and a 3 for Savage. They swapped 1's and traded away a 3rd. Same with Love. They swapped 1st round picks and gave up a 4th for him. Can't say they traded away 1st round picks when they got a 1st round pick back.
Lets not forget a few years ago everyone bashed Thompson for trading back out of the 1st to gain an extra 4th round pick to draft. So many said the 4th was a wasted pick to get that where they were at was more valuable. Now I get that the whole thing was mostly about the players themselves more then the pick, but people instantly complained about the trade. Gutey did the opposite and gets bashed for the same thing. So what is it. The 4th round pick is valuable or isn't? If it wasn't valuable when they traded back, why is the 4th round pick valuable when they used it to trade up?
They traded the 4th round pick #136 away. Which was later traded to another team. But this was the pick that was used at #136 - Brycen Hopkins TE.
These were the following 10 picks after that. 137 - Josiah Scott DB, 138 - L'Jarius Sneed DB, 139 - Amik Robertson DB, 140 - Shaquille Quarterman LB, 141 - John Reid DB, 142 - Antonio Gandy-Golden WR, 143 - Ben Bredeson OG, 144 - DeeJay Dallas RB, 145 - Jack Driscoll OT, 146 - Tyler Biadasz OC
Would any of these guys have helped GB to get to the Super Bowl? I'm guessing no.
PF4L
March 29, 2021 at 05:08 pm
That's amazing!
Gute makes all the right moves.
Genius.
The 4th round pick can be valuable...it's the round TJ Lang, Sitton, and Bakhtiari were drafted.
Corey Linsley was drafted in the 5th round.
*************************
"Lets not forget a few years ago everyone bashed Thompson for trading back..."
Lets not forget a few years ago Ted Thompson (RIP) was 15 cents short of a quarter.
Kolo
March 29, 2021 at 03:45 pm
Great news, the Packers can fire all of their scouts to save money and lower ticket prices. All they have to do is buy a Walters guide and all of our problems are solved. The Packers are one of the winningest, best run and respected franchises in the NFL, have some faith. They don't value ILB, G, as high draft picks or pay those positions. Get onboard with the strategy that works.
stockholder
March 29, 2021 at 05:01 pm
Gute would do BETTER with the Cheezehead draft guide. Seems Hawk was picked over Nagata. Barrett? And when they traded Hendricks and Simmons they stunk. Yet I stayed a fan all my life. The main reason they don't value the ILB is because of the switch to the 3-4-4. And TT dumped his guards because of salary, and the zone blocking .
dobber
March 29, 2021 at 09:18 am
A somewhat facetious answer.
But ARod is a double boon in trade: you get cap and you get picks to restock with. He's a very valuable commodity in that regard.
...and if you think he wouldn't love the chance to pull a Brady and go somewhere where he could elevate some kind of miscreant organization to a superbowl win, you haven't been paying attention to him.
SwedeBayPacker
March 29, 2021 at 07:26 am
I would be slightly tempted by three firsts and Lawrence, but sending Rodgers to Jacksonville? That's kind of a "thanks, and fuck you" to Rodgers after what he's done for the team.
mattgsx
March 29, 2021 at 08:38 am
Most if the places they could ship him outside of maybe SF would be, and I definitely wouldn't want to see Rodgers playing for another NFC team outside of maybe NYG.
About the only teams that would make sense to me where you're still doing right by Arod are Pittsburgh since Ben keeps hinting retirement, NE (Cam isn't a long term answer), or Denver (Lock isn't a long term answer).
dobber
March 29, 2021 at 09:20 am
Cleveland... (the QB will turn out to be only a little better than average)
Raiders...
flackcatcher
March 30, 2021 at 03:30 pm
Do the Raiders have any draft choices to trade with. Hmmm... Rodgers would be good in Cleveland's offense, good OL, nice running game, pretty good WR. (Not saying one word about the Browns defense. NOT one, some things should be left unspoken...)
dobber
March 30, 2021 at 03:34 pm
They've moved some picks, but not in the early rounds.
https://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/Future/Raider...
Razer
March 29, 2021 at 07:50 am
In Ken's fantasy scenario, the Packers would be crazy to not take the "3 firsts" deals for Rodgers. Personally, I don't think the Packers will win another Super Bowl with Rodgers at the helm. We will make the playoffs because the NFC North is in shambles but the big game is beyond this team and Rodgers in particular. So, if someone gives you the resources to rebuild and you have a plan - why not move.
Having said that, I wouldn't sucker punch a guy who gets you to the dance with only half a team. A better defense would have made all the difference in Rodger's career. Dumping him for the money and not knowing what to do with the money would be the ultimate insult.
Minniman
March 29, 2021 at 01:27 pm
"Dumping him for the money and not knowing what to do with the money would be the ultimate insult"
And there in lies the crux of the argument - not every draft puts up a franchise QB.
At this stage both players are an insurance policy for each other.
Coldworld
March 29, 2021 at 07:52 am
Wilson seems to be coming to terms with Seattle, having made his point. Interesting balance of power if true moving forward, but it looks like he us staying and, frankly, that always seemed the most likely outcome.
Watson has some serious non football questions. I hate to prejudge but prudence means that any GM planning to build around him will need to think twice given the apparent number of accusers. Simply put, one can’t be certain that the guy will be available to play or, in this age, of the backlash pressures as details come out. It may all be empty or extortion, but teams can’t bank on that. It could also prove a career preventor if there looks to be substance to the claims in the 16 or so lawsuits currently filed. At the minimum, these are likely to be a significant distraction for a while.
13TimeChamps
March 29, 2021 at 10:45 am
How many accusations and pending lawsuits have come out concerning Antonio Brown? At least two sexual assault cases, including one of rape. Another of trying to intimidate one of the accusers. Assaulting a moving company employee. Trashing and throwing furniture out of a high rise apartment that wasn't his. Threatening an asst coach during his 5 minutes with Oakland.
It's mind blowing to me that he is still in the league and had an opportunity to get a ring this past year. I lost a lot of respect for Brady after he lobbied hard to get him on the team.
Sorry for the rant. I guess I'm saying Watson probably doesn't have much to worry about considering how the league has handled Brown with kid gloves.
Ferrari-Driver
March 29, 2021 at 12:58 pm
Certainly agree with you. Michael Vick is another example of a miserable human being who was welcomed back, after a suspension, not only to the NFL, but to the TV network. The things he did until caught were reprehensible. In the NFL if the guy can play at a high level he will play, but don't let a third string guard even look
cross-eyed because he will be used as an example of how tough the league can be on conduct detrimental to their image.
Lphill
March 29, 2021 at 08:07 am
Watson may be out of football if these sexual allegations keep increasing .
Razer
March 29, 2021 at 08:12 am
So true. Lot of smoke to not have a fire underneath. Talk about writing yourself out of a bright future. Sad and dumb.
Kolo
March 29, 2021 at 03:47 pm
Highly doubt it, Ray Lewis killed a guy and played a HOF career. It's the NFL, talent trumps character.
oceanstrength
March 29, 2021 at 08:57 am
you have to be joking! I doubt if the Jaguars would give up their first pick to the Packers for Rodgers straight up, much less three other firsts. Rodgers for Trevor Lawrence straight up. As a Packer fan, I'd take it today and never look back. And that's exactly why Jags would never do it.
Stafford and Wilson might give another team 8-10 more years. Rodgers is no guarantee for even two or three more.
Kolo
March 29, 2021 at 09:23 am
Finally, someone with some common sense. I can't believe CHTV would actually post this nonsense article. Aaron Rodgers is going to be 39 next season in Dec and there is not a team in the world who is going to give 3 firsts plus a young stud QB for someone of that age with his cap number.
The Packers don't owe anything to Aaron Rodgers other than the money paid to do his job and should be preparing to move on. I am guessing these whining Packer fans don't actually remember or weren't alive when Green Bay didn't have a HOF QB. Welcome to years of 4-12 until you find a replacement. Of course, the people complaining about keeping Aaron will be the same ones crying that the Packers didn't do enough to find a QB.
Bearmeat
March 29, 2021 at 01:19 pm
Right. IF Rodgers plays 75% as well as he did in 2020 this next Fall, AND if GB is ready to move to Love, THEN, we MIGHT see 2 1st round picks to a team in the AFC to ship Rodgers to.
He's much older than Stafford. Stafford for this reason alone would be worth more than ARod. Plus, the Lions are completely rebuilding and shipping their best QB ever at this time made sense. GB is not even close to rebuilding. The roster Gute has put together isn't 13-3 without ARod, but it's not 3-13 without him either.
Shipping ARod doesn't make sense currently. Unless things go way south in 2021.
Archie
March 29, 2021 at 09:13 am
Rodgers trade value one or two years out will likely be far less than 3 #1s. I'd say two #1s if we are lucky.
As far as when they would dump Rodgers that would depend on Love's development but minimum of two more years. So following 2022 season, Rodgers gas one year left on contract - perfect time to trade him. His new team can restructure/extend his contract to fit their cap situation. Would we get two #1s under this scenario? If we did, we would be doing very well i.e., extra cap spending and extra draft picks. More likely a 1st and a 3rd.
Lastly, if two years from now, Love is not showing signs of being the guy Gutey/MLF thought when they drafted him, they could be forced to keep Rodgers in 2023 and maybe extend his contract while they draft/develop Love2. This would be a bad scenario. So let's hope Love is ready to take over in 2023.
PF4L
March 29, 2021 at 09:18 am
"Plus there are reports the team is indeed working on some sort of contract adjustment."
Where is that coming from Mr. Lass?
Is that coming from the lone (only) source of Mike Silver from 7 days ago?
Or do you have another, more legitimate source?
***********************************
Mathew Stafford did get 2 1st round picks, but for a QB who was/is 33.
By the time Rodgers would be traded, he will be 38.
Another motivating factor for the Rams is they wanted out of Goff's contract....bad.
You can speculate Wilson or Watson would retrieve 3 1st round picks in a trade, but until it happens, it didn't happen.
Personally, i think Rodgers is gone and he'll be traded to the highest bidder after this season.
With that said, if a team offered Gute 3 1st round picks, he should grab them before they change their mind.
Even skipping getting Murphy's approval.
Hell, if a NFC North team gave up 3 first for Rodgers, i wouldn't hesitate.
Coldworld
March 29, 2021 at 10:35 am
There have been multiple reports. Whether there is any substance, I do not know and we probably never will unless one is concluded and signed.
PF4L
March 29, 2021 at 05:00 pm
Sigh.....Yes Cold, there all multiple reports, but they all CITE Mike Silver as the source.
Check it out.
C'mon man!
Kolo
March 29, 2021 at 09:34 am
I can't believe CHTV would actually post this clickbait article. Aaron Rodgers is going to be 39 next season in Dec and there is not a team in the world who is going to give 3 firsts plus a young stud QB for someone of that age with his cap number.
The Packers don't owe anything to Aaron Rodgers other than the money paid to do his job and should be preparing to move on. I am guessing these whining Packer fans don't actually remember or weren't alive when Green Bay didn't have a HOF QB. Welcome to years of 4-12 until you find a replacement. Of course, the people complaining about keeping Aaron will be the same ones crying that the Packers didn't do enough to find a QB.
Leatherhead
March 29, 2021 at 12:56 pm
He’ll turn 38 in December, but your point is still valid.
Kolo
March 29, 2021 at 03:35 pm
No, he is 37 now and will be 38 this Dec. Next season after Dec he will be 39. What am I missing?
Thegreatreynoldo
March 30, 2021 at 03:20 am
The ambiguity in this versus next.
Your usage is the more common usage but it depends on geography as well. When I moved to Wisconsin I had some trouble with this and next, and a few other oddities of speech.
People have complained about my definitions of past, present and future. :)
LeotisHarris
March 30, 2021 at 04:21 pm
Great stuff, TGR! There are odd little pockets of the state where you "put gas on", and are asked "who are you from home, now?" Don't even try to sort out the usage of still and yet.
And, your definitions are still suspect with me because those who forget the past have one foot in the present and pee all over the future when the future is NOW! Or something.
davekenya
March 30, 2021 at 10:24 am
After the 2021 season his cap hit is like 17M - an amazingly palatable amount for any team. And for a QB in top 5 in the league? And pissed he was traded (history of finding external sources to motivate him to play at a high level). This would present a team with a very attractive option. Oh - and AR just might energize a team's flagging fan base given his star appeal, play and notoriety.
Maybe something like Lawrence Welk -- a 1 and a 2 and a 3 and a 1 and a 2. Spread out over 5 years might feel less impactvul for the trading partner and not have all the top picks become UFAs around the same time and hard for GB to sign to second contracts...
As mentioned, GB would gain a lot of cap space. Either just use that on resigning Jaire/Adams and a mid-round UFA after the 2021 season...or that trade partner could ship GB a decent DL with a 8-11 cap number as GB seems to have trouble drafting/developing DL (notable exception Clarke)
Since'61
March 29, 2021 at 10:59 am
I think Rodgers trade value would be determined by how well he plays during 2021 season. If he wins or is in contention for another MVP award his value would be pretty high. Of if the Packers win the 2021 SB. Rodgers value would remain high. Of course in either of those scenarios it would be madness to trade Rodgers unless Gute and MLF figure that once they have won an SB there are guaranteed another 3-5 seasons in their current jobs similar to how TT and MM got another 8 seasons out of the 2010 SB win.
If Rodgers declines or is injured in 2021 then trading him or getting any kind of significant offer is probably off the table. Why would any team trade for a declining and or injured 39 year old QB?
I don't see it happening it either case. The way that Rodgers has responded to MLF's offense has proven that with another legit WR, solid OL play, a good running game and hopefully improved defensive play, the sky is the limit for the results that Rodgers can produce. Finish building the team and let's see what happens rather than demoralizing the rest of the team by letting go of the player who gives the team their best chance to win. Thanks, Since '61
Jaqu’eau
March 29, 2021 at 11:00 am
If Rodgers were to be traded, it’s likely in 2022, for a first and two second round picks, and maybe a premium player in a position of need. It all depends on Love’s progress and Rodgers’ level of play. These will be the two main drivers of this decision. Sorry, but draft picks will not likely sway the packers to release Rodgers if he continues to perform well and Love still needs time to develop. This is just too big a risk for this franchise. If Love balls out this preseason and looks like a superstar in the making, the packers could feasibly move on from Rodgers after this season. As in the article, there are a ton of ifs and likelies in this paragraph, which is probably why the packers are rightly being cautious with a contract restructure/extension with Rodgers. Also, they have him under contract for the next three years so they have almost no incentive to play their cards to him and the rest of at the league at this time.
Packers fans, prepare. With ten picks, they will likely draft another qb this year and every year until the next HOF qb is entrenched and there is a solid backup. The position is just too valuable to ignore. My bet this year is former SMU qb Shane Buechele in the fifth round if he’s available.
Jaqu’eau
March 29, 2021 at 11:00 am
If Rodgers were to be traded, it’s likely in 2022, for a first and two second round picks, and maybe a premium player in a position of need. It all depends on Love’s progress and Rodgers’ level of play. These will be the two main drivers of this decision. Sorry, but draft picks will not likely sway the packers to release Rodgers if he continues to perform well and Love still needs time to develop. This is just too big a risk for this franchise. If Love balls out this preseason and looks like a superstar in the making, the packers could feasibly move on from Rodgers after this season. As in the article, there are a ton of ifs and likelies in this paragraph, which is probably why the packers are rightly being cautious with a contract restructure/extension with Rodgers. Also, they have him under contract for the next three years so they have almost no incentive to play their cards to him and the rest of at the league at this time.
Packers fans, prepare. With ten picks, they will likely draft another qb this year and every year until the next HOF qb is entrenched and there is a solid backup. The position is just too valuable to ignore. My bet this year is former SMU qb Shane Buechele in the fifth round if he’s available.
Jaqu’eau
March 29, 2021 at 11:00 am
If Rodgers were to be traded, it’s likely in 2022, for a first and two second round picks, and maybe a premium player in a position of need. It all depends on Love’s progress and Rodgers’ level of play. These will be the two main drivers of this decision. Sorry, but draft picks will not likely sway the packers to release Rodgers if he continues to perform well and Love still needs time to develop. This is just too big a risk for this franchise. If Love balls out this preseason and looks like a superstar in the making, the packers could feasibly move on from Rodgers after this season. As in the article, there are a ton of ifs and likelies in this paragraph, which is probably why the packers are rightly being cautious with a contract restructure/extension with Rodgers. Also, they have him under contract for the next three years so they have almost no incentive to play their cards to him and the rest of at the league at this time.
Packers fans, prepare. With ten picks, they will likely draft another qb this year and every year until the next HOF qb is entrenched and there is a solid backup. The position is just too valuable to ignore. My bet this year is former SMU qb Shane Buechele in the fifth round if he’s available.
Bure9620
March 29, 2021 at 11:30 am
Yes I think 1st and 2nd on the low end. They could really get a kings ransom for Rodgers after 2021 if they wanted to go that route.
Ferrari-Driver
March 29, 2021 at 11:58 am
"The 49ers just traded up to the number three spot in the coming draft, so they are going to draft their future quarterback. But we're just spitballing here, so let's imagine the Niners offer Green Bay three first rounders and throw in Jimmy Garopollo. Would you take that deal?"
The 49ers could offer that deal and also "THROW IN THE FARM". I'm riding that horse until his gittyup is gone. We may never see a player on the Packers roster as good as Rodgers for the rest of our lives.
Leatherhead
March 29, 2021 at 12:59 pm
I heard EXACTLY, verbatim, the same comments about Favre.
Rodgers is an exceptional QB, but everybody is replaceable.
dobber
March 30, 2021 at 03:41 pm
I think what people want is for a replacement for Rodgers to BE Rodgers...at least in play. Out of necessity, this team likely undergoes a significant change in style of play if ARod is moved after 2021 (or even 2022). As others have said, many lesser QBs than ARod have won SBs. Those teams haven't needed to ask their QB to do what ARod has been asked to do over much of his career.
SanLobo
March 29, 2021 at 12:22 pm
“Rodgers will be Green Bay's signal caller for as long as he continues to play at a high level”. If he decides to stay with Green Bay. He gets a vote as well.
Minniman
March 29, 2021 at 01:34 pm
Ken, I looked into the "hit ratio" of drafted quarterbacks in the first round since 2000.
My metric for a "hit" was multiple contract extensions - which basically said that after their rookie contract the QB would be extended at least a second time for a multi-year extension AND that player was installed as QB1 AND that player saw out their contract..... no "fitz-magic" \ foles journeymen allowed.
Of 60 first round QB's taken since 2000 only 10 qualified (including Rodgers). That's a 5 out of 6 failure rate for first round QB's at being a "franchise QB".
Adding to this, rule changes around QB safety in the last 10 years have made it conducive to allowing players at that position to play longer.......... mainly for pass-centric QB's though - "running QB's" like RG3 and Cam become fair game to legit big hits (which ultimately shorten their careers........ and maybe this is what Russell Wilson has in the back of his mind).
So all this considered, I'd be inclined to keep Rodgers (providing he's conducive to a cap number to allow me to keep an appropriate ensemble around him to keep him upright). If not, then a trade after 2022 to a non-NFC team for 2-3 picks plus a trade of a pro-bowl or above caliber player (assuming he plays to the same standard as last year)........ and even then I'd be reluctant to trade my "unicorn" for life in the picking 5/6 chance failures and I'd only be doing it because I couldn't guarantee that I could reliably keep him upright and healthy (i.e. productive).
I'd also double-down and evaluate the HC in 2022 if Rodgers was going to be traded - as I firmly believe that it's an equal combo of coaches + players that win the big games (NFCCG + SB). Note that I say evaluating.
I'll also be continuing my philosophy of drafting BPA
13TimeChamps
March 29, 2021 at 02:35 pm
Great post, with one exception:
"If not, then a trade after 2022 to a non-NFC team for 2-3 picks plus a trade of a pro-bowl or above caliber player"
Aaron Rodgers will turn 39 during the 2022 season, meaning he would turn 40 the season after your proposed trade. Mortgaging your teams future by trading multiple draft picks PLUS a pro bowl caliber player for a QB with a realistic 1-2 year window is what gets GM's fired.
I don't know if you're old enough to remember Dan Devine. If not, google him.
Minniman
March 29, 2021 at 03:08 pm
Yep, in part you're absolutely right 13..... at 39 Rodgers will most certainly be a 'rental' for a team.
I posted a couple of days ago that I believe that the real litmus test for evaluating if a veteran QB is cooked is if he can no longer throw a decent accurate deep ball - a la Brees and Eli.
Whilst ever Rodgers keeps showing that he can throw those lasers, age is just a number..... until he gets hurt or banged around...... then recovery becomes an issue (and that is guaranteed slower as we age).
Also, remember that pump fake and bake move that Rodgers put on the bears OLB this year for a TD? Brees and Eli certainly weren't attempting that in their last 3 years of their careers.
13TimeChamps
March 29, 2021 at 03:36 pm
I still don't see any team giving up multiple draft picks and a pro bowl caliber player for a QB that will turn 40 during the 1st year he will be playing for that team. Sorry.
davekenya
March 30, 2021 at 02:24 pm
Very nice post. I appreciate the 1st RD QB success-rate research. It at least provides some benchmark for comparison.
After the 2021 season is the 'do or die' time for AR it seems. As mentioned, his value diminishes as he ages and probability of stellar play declines. Plus, after 2021 he's a very 'cap friendly' trade whereas after the 2022 season that diminishes.
Plus, Love continues to get closer to the end of his rookie contract -- GB loses the 'cheap QB cap gain' where extra cap savings can be spent surrounding him with high quality players at a more manageable cost.
No doubt AR is a top level QB. However, when GB's lost in the playoffs, it's not due to the other team's outstanding QB play (Brady multiple ints; SF game no pass game per se, etc.). It's been highly ranked defenses that have hurt. This is a way of saying....GB can't really do much more with the roster surrounding AR to make the team successful given cap constraints. After trying the current approach unsuccessfully for several years, maybe a change is needed; can't keep banging head on wall and expect a different outcome. This is not a reflection of AR but more a reflection of team composition based on cap allocation.
Fubared
March 29, 2021 at 06:24 pm
my 3 sents. First should have shipped him this year. Lots of needs for QB, could have made a haul.
Next year, a lot older, way closer to the end, your getting a one, a two and a three. No one is giving up a bunch of ones for his big salary, old arm and posdibility of him hanging it up. Plus the team in need cannot be in rebuilding mode either. Has to be the last piece of puzzle team 9r no one would want him.
Leatherhead
March 29, 2021 at 06:30 pm
Love’s 5th year option will need to be exercised in May 2023. That’s two years. If you’d like to see him in action for a season before you commit $20 million or more, then that means he’s our starter in 2022.
We can get something in trade for Rodgers, but the cap savings is the big driver on this.
Thegreatreynoldo
March 30, 2021 at 04:23 am
Trading AR for the #3 overall pick would arguably be for three picks. That's what it cost SF to get to #3.
GB selects Wilson/Field/Lance/Jones or perhaps OT Penie Sewell or one of the WRs.
If Gute loves Love he can trade down for another haul and take any number of players. Maybe Surtain and still nabs Barmore at 29. Love gets on the field in plenty of time for the decision on his 5th year option. If Carolina wanted to move from 8th to 3rd, maybe we get pick #39 and can still nab Asante Samuel, Newsome, Aaron Robinson, Molden or WR Elijah Moore. Perhaps use the third rounder to move up from 62 if necessary to pick Gute's OT of choice: Cosmi or Carman or stay put and hope Walker Little and/or Hudson falls, or take the WR, Dyami Brown.
Should have been done prior to paying AR his bonus, but that sweetens the deal for SF, I suppose. They can include Garapolo or not (we can cut or trade him as well as SF can - he has no dead for GB and very little for SF). And it fixes the cap liability issue for 2022.
HaroldDrake
March 30, 2021 at 11:51 pm
Terrific, pointless, annoying article intended to aggravate Packers fans who believe that Rodgers gives the team its best chance of winning a Super Bowl over the next three years.