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Westgate has Packers Win Total at 9

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Westgate has Packers Win Total at 9

Despite all of the negative publicity around the franchise this offseason, the Green Bay Packers have still managed to head into training camp with expectations for the 2019 season.  According to Vegas Oddsmakers, the Packers projected win total is 9 (over +100, under -120) and their Super Bowl odds are 14/1.  

Do these odds make the Packers a legitimate playoff contender? No, but what they do, is indicate that Vegas thinks the 53 man roster is significantly improved from last year.  The Packers go into this season with what the front office hopes is a more complete team, that for a change, doesn't solely rely on Aaron Rodgers to win games.

This offseason has been highlighted by the signings of impact defensive ends like Za'Darius and Preston Smith along with a new dedication to the running game.  Matt LaFleur has done his best to change the culture and has demanded consistency and toughness from his players during the onset of training camp. 

During training camp, we have seen Aaron Rodgers play his part and acquiesce to LaFleur's system by trusting his running game and check down options.  We have also seen the defense take a step forward in year 2 of Mike Pettine's system causing many people to believe this unit could be a force to be reckoned with.  

Young players have been making progress both on offense and defense and there is an expectation that players like Rashan Gary, Jake Kumerow, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Oren Burks, and others will continue to develop and make an impact this year.

The next test will be when the Packers start their joint practices with the Texans and open up their preseason schedule later on next week.  In order to legitimize the confidence Vegas has in them, The Packers will need to be able to show that their improved play and lofty expectations can carry with them from the practice field to the bright lights of Lambeau Field.  

I think we are starting to see the foundation and the framework of Brian Gutekunst's vision for the future of the organization.  Over the past two years, Gutekunst has gone away from older players who are past their prime and has given younger players on the right side of 30, the keys to the organization.  

It is these players that Gutenkunst expects to provide Rodgers with a stable infrastructure to compete for a Super Bowl during the twilight of his career.

Personally, I think Vegas's assessment of the Packers is a fair one as they are probably right around an 8 or 9 win team who could possibly win 10 games with a few favorable bounces.  I think the Packers could see growing pains early as they look to find their identity and adjust to a new system, but I expect the team to rebound and finish strong once they come into their own. 

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David Michalski is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @kilbas27dave 

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (39) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

Bearmeat's picture

David,

If I remember correctly, Vegas was higher on Green Bay last year. Most books were between 10 and 11 as an O/U.

Tarynfor12's picture

I think the 9 wins is on the money. They get 11 or 12 with some help by their own players and some opponents failings. I'll take a chance and bet over with a push also on my side for protection.

Holecrap's picture

I think the packers are a more talented team then last year, no question. I think long term this team will come together as be a force. However, i look at the schedule, young inexperienced coaches and players and a brutal 5 first games could make for a long developmental season.
You can't expect the world from untried players.

GLM's picture

Assuming the team is healthy, and Aaron remains the starter, 9-7 would be a big disappointment for me. I see 11-5, or better.

stockholder's picture

The last couple of years ; the packers seem to shoot themselves in the foot. While many kept coming up with a reason not to play. I assumed it was the fact that they were cowards. And yet even are best players gave up to easy. There was no resistance. It was on MM. The team was cut up into bits. The replacements changed the negativity. This team can catch on like fire. The physical courage has now come out. The faster the start. The better the record.

sbransbottom's picture

I agree that this team is definitely capable of catching fire, but calling the players from last year cowards is too far imo. There may have been 1-2 that weren't as motivated as they should have been but cowards is pretty harsh.

Doug Niemczynski's picture

9-7 Should be the bottom line. Anything less is a losing season.

Defensively, the team has a lot of young and new players, so I can definitely see the miscommunication errors that are going to happen this year.

dobber's picture

"9-7 Should be the bottom line. Anything less is a losing season."

Almost literally.

LambeauPlain's picture

I see the O steuggling a bit to start the season but steadily improving while the D carries them.

4-4 to start the season and 6-2 down the stretch.

D has so much more talent and quality depth. G play will be much improved. D coaching staff is better, so is the O staff. Run game will actually be a priority and make the pass game even more opportunistic and potent. And STs will carry their weight for a change.

10-6....11-5 with some breaks.

Since '61's picture

If the team remains healthy and cuts down on stupid penalties, especially on STs we can go 10-6 and maybe better.

The Packers are already a good ball security team. With an improved defense getting stops and creating turnovers our offense can play with decent field position.

In 2018 we should have had at least 3 more wins. One against the Vikings in Week 2, terrible officiating, at NE, untimely fumble and defensive fold up late in the game and against the Rams thanks to a bad decision on a KO by Montgomery. Beyond that we’ll never how bad ST penalties which negated good returns cost us field position and points that may have won another game or two.

Except for 2008 Rodgers has produced double digit winning seasons every season unless he’s been injured. Keep this team relatively healthy and he will do it again just by reducing stupidity and penalties on the STs and playing with an improved and faster defense. Thanks, Since ‘61

jannes bjornson's picture

Good analysis. Field position is the basis of football.

Samson's picture

6-2 at the halfway mark with 11 or 12 regular season wins, North Division Crown and a berth in the NFC Championship game against N. Orleans.

Why? --- Smith, Smith, Savage, Turner, Amos, Gary, Clark, Alexander, AJ, Bak ...etc. etc..... plus AR, Gute & MLF.

Note: the old, under-performing, too oft-injured & overpaid have been shown the door.... finally.

Many will be eating crow by season's end.... I hope to see some real honesty from those with all the dire predictions.

Matt Gonzales's picture

The NFC north is pretty evenly matched this year (the Lions being the possible exception). If GB can win 4 or 5 of their division games, 9 might be enough to take it.

Old School's picture

I think that we are not better than the Bears. I think if things go wrong we're probably not the second best team....and things almost always go wrong.

So if you're the 3rd best team in your own division, it's unlikely your record is better than 8 and 8.

I would love to see the Packers win the division, and I'll fully admit I was wrong. In fact, I'll quit bothering this place forever if SamsonDemon will do the same if we go 8-8 or worse. I think it's a fair bet.

Samson's picture

Why even bet? ...
When the Pack thrive in season 2019, you'll slowly but surely disappear or use a selective argument to alter your dire prediction or ...... (like in the past) simply change your ID again.

Old School's picture

No. I'm an honorable guy. I'll leave and go to another site. I'll be done here. How about you? Or are you chicken?

Samson's picture

I repeat... It's quite simple....

"Why even bet? ...
When the Pack thrive in season 2019, you'll slowly but surely disappear or use a selective argument to alter your dire prediction or ...... (like in the past) simply change your ID again."

Old School's picture

Buk buk BAWK!!

Tarynfor12's picture

I'll take that bet....Packers go less than 9-7, I 'll never comment here again.

Besides,it would be great to see many here rooting for me to stay. : )

Since '61's picture

Taryn - you, Old School and Samson are all assets to our blog so I hope that all of you remain contributing here regardless of the Packers record.

Old School and Samson, I realize that you often disagree with each other but I don’t think that either of you leaving would prove anything. We all make predictions based on our observations and hopes for the Packers. In the end what matters is our dialogue not the accuracy or inaccuracies of our predictions and/or opinions.

Let’s get through the season and let the rest take care of itself. Thanks, Since ‘61

Old School's picture

Thanks for the attempt at conciliation, but I’m tired of Demon Samson making this personal all the time. I saw this as an opportunity to for him to put his money where his mouth is, like Taryn and I have, but he’s too cowardly to do it.

Since '61's picture

I understand how you feel about Samson. I’m just thinking that everyone should wait until the end of the preseason before committing to predictions without knowing who is healthy for week one of the regular season.

Speaking for myself I’ll finalize my prediction at that time but it’s still all assuming the relative health of the team. Thanks, Since ‘61

Samson's picture

'61
I'm not going anywhere. --- I'm enthusiastically entering into season 2019... Some so-called fellow posters who thrive on negativity, creating conflict & living in the past won't deter my optimism for another Packer SB ring.... I'm not an impostor... I'm a real fan of the Pack.

Samson's picture

Tarynfor12
Don't.... you'll lose that bet... easily.
I actually appreciate your comments (although somewhat divisive, negative & ultimately courting rebuke from others)...... you seem honest.

Your only misconception (at this point) is one that many have on this blog....
TT/MM are long gone.... The same 'ol...same 'ol is not the same anymore.... Gute/MLF are in charge....

Old School's picture

Actually....Ted Thompson is still on the payroll and the guy he mentored is the GM.

Gute/MLF = 0 wins so far. If you wanna crown ‘em, crown ‘em. I’ll wait until they’ve won a couple games.

Tarynfor12's picture

I believe the Packers get 9 wins and so I'd bet that, which happens to be what I do in my retirement years living in Vegas. This is a good bet whether for real money or for the jibber-jabber kind here on sports sites with other fans.
i have no real desire to have Old School gone and nor him me but since I've been ' negative ' about GB for a few years as by few others thinking, I take this opportunity to show them i can be ' positive ' when things command such positivity. I don't see a deep playoff run but a hard fight to make the playoffs and why I see the 9 wins as right on the money. 9 wins doesn't get a wildcard.

Tarynfor12's picture

I'm saying the Packers will get 9 wins.

Old School's picture

I think they could get 9, too, if nothing goes wrong. Things are gonna go wrong, you can pretty much count on that. What do you think our record is if Rodgers is hampered by injuries or unavailable for several games? Because that's what I'm prognosticating.

Even if not Rodgers, how indispensable are Davante and Bakhtiari? Aaron Jones? Martinez or Alexander or Clark? If we start missing these guys, what's our record?

Tarynfor12's picture

I betting that Rodgers stays healthy which this system should do unless he decides to go rogue. I also believe the backup QB won't be the failure it was because of this system and that should get us a win or two. don't see the defense sucking as much or close to as often as has in the most recent past.
I'm being optimistic hooray, right, but again, this team commands my optimism and now I'm giving it. Things can happen but I don't feel the pressure of the past with injuries or inept play as was with the defense of past few seasons.
Somethings in the air and I'm welcoming it as strong as I didn't previously.
This team practice with Texans will be good and will also say a lot when they play a live game after two practices.
Get on board...may be an incredible ride, at least much better than last two for sure.... I'm in this season!

Old School's picture

Rodgers health and availability at the end of the season is well documented.

In 2018 he was available for every game but was not really healthy all seasons.

In 2017, he was essentially knocked out for the season in our sixth game.

In 2016, he got scorching hot at the end of season ...and was healthy

In 2015, he was healthy and available. That was the year without Jordy.

In 2014, He was available for every game but was slowed by leg injuries.

In 2013, he missed half the season with a broken collarbone.

So I’m seeing a 36 year old who is usually unavailable or hampered by injury. And nobody behind him.

cheesehead1's picture

I think we’ll come in around 8-8, hope I’m wrong. Still lots of question marks offensively and defensively. On paper we look much improved on D, but time will tell. Having a relatively healthy season would be a nice change. Go Pack.

jannes bjornson's picture

They have the best OT tandem in the Norris div. They have the best QB and the best WR. The guard spots are reinforced. Graham is still a target.
With LeFleur the running game will take some targets off Rodgers' back and the plays will be delivered with a faster pace. Not worried. Defensively, the speed of the pass rush has been raised exponentially. Amos is a stable force and Savage gives them range at FS. The ILB position will be the weak link if Martinez ever goes down. Still staying with 11-5.

Matt Gonzales's picture

If it weren't for the FA acquisitions this year I would also say 8-8. Adding starting level veterans throughout the defense should help the defense gel quickly. Even if the offense starts slow those guys should be worth at least 1-2 extra wins.

I think 9-7 could still win the division this year if one team can come close to sweeping their division opponents, but 10 is more likely. At least 10 to come in as a wild card birth - the south and west both look like they're capable of each putting out 2 9-10 win teams.

Cubbygold's picture

I hate to say it, but I think I agree. I'm excited for this defense and I'm hoping there's a major breakout for the WR/TE group this year and Rodgers is on a revenge tour.

That said, I expect this team will need some time to get up to speed. @CHI, MN, PHI, @DAL, @KC, @SD all before the bye. I'm not saying these are definite losses, but it's not crazy to see a scenario where this team is 4-6 heading into the bye week.

Old School's picture

If we don't handle Minnesota at home I think we're in bad shape. I mean, that's a really important game for us to win.

We have a tough schedule. Even these games like SF ...on the road....could be tough. I can't see a single road game where we might be the favorite.

Holecrap's picture

Hey with this schedule 9 games would be a huge achievement. New players, new coaches, a brutal schedule- when your fluff games are Dallas, Philly and Carolina, plus the rebuilt niners and raiders who should be vastly improved. Ya I would take 9 games any day

Cubbygold's picture

For sure. You can see a scenario where they tough out 9 wins, both sides of the ball start to play best at year end, and are the wild card team nobody wants to play

Swedish Chef's picture

In my oupiniun, unyzeeng less thuon 8-8 is a lusing seesun. Bork Bork Bork!

TheBigCheeze's picture

HOGWASH!!!!............19 - 0........SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!!!!!!

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