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Trading up in the NFL Draft? What Would it Take for Thompson to Break his M.O.

It's always a fun exercise in futility trying to concoct trades involving the Packers moving up in the draft.

It's always a fun exercise in futility trying to concoct trades involving the Packers moving up in the draft.

This year is a little different because a lot of the value is to be had at the bottom of the 1st round. Packers have needs on the DL, ILB, OL, TE, OLB and it just so happens they should be able to find a prospect who fills a need at pick #27. Having said that I wanted to see if I could come up with some mutually beneficial trades for the Packers to move up in the draft.

Trade Option #1

Trading to pick #5 with Jacksonville Jaguars for Myles Jack, LB, UCLA 

Before you blow a gasket and say Ted Thompson would never trade up that high, he values draft picks too much, and that he doesn't value inside linebackers that high, just know I'm merely playing this scenario out so you can see what it would potentially cost. There are some Packer fans who believe we are just a player or two away from being Super Bowl favorites, so this a trade scenario that could pique the interest of some.

The reason I want to see how much it would cost for pick five is because I think that’s the floor for Myles Jack. Myles Jack is regarded as one of the top prospects in this year's class and would come in and immediately be a stud on the Packers defense. You'd be hard pressed to find a linebacker with his coverage abilities. He's a legit three down player who can run and chase and also fill the hole. He has great movement skills for someone his size and has the ability to really vault this defense into one of the best in the league.

An example which is very comparable is in 2011 when Atlanta Falcons traded their 2011 first-round pick (#27), 2011 second-round pick (#59), 2011 fourth-round pick (#124), 2012 first-round pick, and 2012 fourth-round pick to the Cleveland Browns for their 2011 first-round pick (#6) for Julio Jones. This trade ended up working out great for the Falcons as Julio Jones is arguably the best wide receiver in the league and has been a focal point for their offense since being drafted. The Browns on the other hand ended up with a few busts and guys who aren't contributing in the league anymore.

Based on that the Packers would need to trade their:

2016 1st-round pick (#27)

2016 2nd-round pick (#57)

2016 4th-round pick (#125)

2017 1st-round pick

2017 4th-round pick

For Jaguars 2016 1st-round pick (#5).

Although some feel the NFL Draft trade value chart is a little outdated, the numbers do match up almost perfectly (1699 to 1700 points). Again, that is A LOT to give up for one player, particularly one who is coming off a knee injury. I can't see Thompson making a move up that high, and if he did, I'm not sure it would be for Myles Jack. 

That’s a steep price to pay, the 2017 1st round pick would hurt the most, but in theory it should be at the end of the 1st, hopefully pick 32.

I don't advocate making this trade even though I love Myles Jack as a prospect, the price is however too steep for me.

Trade Option #2

Trading to pick #15 with the LA Rams for Deforest Buckner, DL, Oregon

There is a very real chance that Deforest Buckner isn't on the board at pick #15, but if for some reason he slides this could be an option the Packers should explore.

To make the trade up to pick #15 Packers would need to trade: 

2016 1st-round pick (#27)

2016 2nd-round pick (#57)

2016 4th-round pick (#125)

That would equal 1057 points on the trade value chart for the Rams #15 pick which is worth 1050 points.

Again, that is an awfully steep price to pay to move up just 12 spots in the draft. I think Buckner is a big time 3-4 defensive end prospect who can make plays off his frame, penetrate the backfield and is still growing into a pass rusher. With Datone Jones moving to the Elephant position the Packers need help desperately on the defensive line. 

The Packers have quite a few needs to address during the draft so it’s more likely Thompson keeps his picks or even trades back to acquire more. Thompson is a believer in getting more “at bats” to try and hit a “home-run”. In the end I don’t necessarily foresee a trade up in this year’s draft, not with where the value lies, but it’s always enjoyable to explore the option.

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Comments (47)

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stockholder's picture

March 24, 2016 at 12:19 pm

Any 3 down Linebacker!

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ray nichkee's picture

March 24, 2016 at 12:19 pm

I crapped my pants and jumped for joy when ted traded up for clay matthews. Man did i make a mess.

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croatpackfan's picture

March 24, 2016 at 01:29 pm

Packers are not one or two players away of winning SB. They are, 3 years now, 2 to 3 injuries away of winning SB. And that is the truth!

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DrealynWilliams's picture

March 24, 2016 at 01:46 pm

Ahh - I don't know about that.

Seahawks game -- Clay Matthews had nothing to do with that fake field pass, bobbled onside kick, not attempting to deflect the prayer toss up on that 2-point conversion, not attacking a 1-armed Richard Sherman...

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croatpackfan's picture

March 24, 2016 at 03:04 pm

Ah, if only Aaron Rodgers had ability to run normally...

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DrealynWilliams's picture

March 24, 2016 at 08:19 pm

@Croat

Rodgers running could have definitely helped and picked up a first down or two in that game, but I highly doubt that would erase the bonehead plays the Def. and ST made later on in the game.

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croatpackfan's picture

March 25, 2016 at 06:34 am

The most dangerous plays Packers have includes Aaron runs out of the pocket and either achieving new sets of downs or scoring TD or throwing to the open player in the end zone. Who knows maybe one of those 3 red zone posession would be TDs instead of FG if Aaron was able to run out of the pocket and extended plays. Heck, maybe all 3 might be TDs! If so, all those mistakes would be irelevant!
By the way Packers TD came from extrended play, as I recall! What supports my claim!

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 25, 2016 at 04:39 pm

Totally agree, Croat. The conservative probability is that an AR with his normal mobility turns one FG into a TD.

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Samson's picture

March 25, 2016 at 09:13 pm

Let's rewrite history a little more. --- Come on you guys. A high percentage of NFL games can be turned based on just a few factors. --- That's the game of football. -- History is best left to yesterday.

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dobber's picture

March 24, 2016 at 02:08 pm

I think the argument then becomes: if you don't have the depth and flexibility in your roster to cover up for those injuries, then you're still those 2-3 players (or coaches) short.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

March 24, 2016 at 02:18 pm

I can agree with that.

I think we'd all be lying if we said outside of Matthews/Peppers and MAAAAAYBE Perry on a good day that we were confident in our other LBs and the LB corps is fine.

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RCPackerFan's picture

March 24, 2016 at 02:38 pm

I really like Elliott. I think he deserves more playing time. Also, I do like Joe Thomas as a Dime ILB. No that doesn't cure out LB needs, but I do like him.

We need at least 1 more starting ILB though. I like Jake Ryan, I think he can develop, but they really need a guy that can go sideline to sideline and that can play all 3 downs.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

March 24, 2016 at 04:12 pm

I like Elliot too, but he's still an unknown.

As far as the rest, you like them for 1 thing (and I'm sure the coaches feel the same way) and that's a problem of the Defense. I like Sam Barrington. I think if TT can find him the right partner the Defense could take the next step. Jake isn't it. Palmer damn sure isn't it. Thomas damn sure isn't it.

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Tundraboy's picture

March 24, 2016 at 11:34 pm

Exactly Dobber. I said the other day that we are built to win if almost everything falls in place, when maybe we should be built in case things do not or go wrong. Like injuries, key players having off years etc. That's where depth and additional experience and talent come in handy. Championship teams always have that. How often do we see teams win that have second line players fill in and sometimes outperform starters at critical junctures. Many times and even us in 2010.
A veteran FA or two would provide that.

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scullyitsme's picture

March 24, 2016 at 01:49 pm

Oh boy, you did it again and in sighted the TT haters. Man, the free agency pissing and moaning isn't even over.
Aaron Rogers wants to believe.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

March 24, 2016 at 02:01 pm

I'm one of those fans who believe we are just a player or two away from getting back to the SB.

The player or players don't have to be "stars", but they would be a major upgrade for starters who I doubt could start for any other team in the NFL - let alone get quality PT.

ILB
OLB (when Clay is moved inside)
** and now DL **

I was never worried about the Offense, but after seeing what a season without Jordy Nelson looks like I wouldn't knock TT for getting aggressive and going Offense.

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Another problem, playing players to their strength(s). Sam Barrington is good when playing the run and not so good playing the pass...scratch this, all of our LBs are good playing the run (minus Joe Thomas...smh) and not so good playing the pass. And maybe that's the problem when we're playing tons of 2-4-5.

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dobber's picture

March 24, 2016 at 02:05 pm

Getting a decent, mobile, run-chase ILB with some cover skills would help this defense, and I don't even care if it's a converted SS (a la Deone Bucannon). But if you play that guy, you've got to be able to cover him up with your DL or he has the potential to get abused in the run game. I actually put DL ahead of ILB for that reason as a draft need especially with Raji gone.

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ray nichkee's picture

March 24, 2016 at 02:13 pm

Yep, a big guy up front will make a linebacker look much better unless a big TE or WR is coming across the middle.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

March 24, 2016 at 02:19 pm

"But if you play that guy, you've got to be able to cover him up with your DL or he has the potential to get abused in the run game."

But that's only if we're running the 2-4-5. I don't think it would be much of an issue if we played 3-3-5, putting an extra big body in there. Trust me, I've played this out many of seasons in Madden (haha!). It works. Also, HHCD is awesome at flying down and offering help in run.

The Steelers run this all day with Ryan Shazier, the guy a lot of Packers fans wanted, who is blazing fast but also undersized. The 3-3-5 works.

Daniels/Pennell/Guion?
Daniels/Pennell/D.Jones?
Daniels/Pennel/Perry?
Daniels/Pennell/Peppers?

Now, with Raji gone, that formation isn't so sexy now. But here is where the draft comes in to play.

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ray nichkee's picture

March 24, 2016 at 02:31 pm

Pennell starts the season suspended.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

March 24, 2016 at 04:02 pm

I know that. My only point was to show that our DL group is no longer strong.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

March 24, 2016 at 08:36 pm

My god. If Daniels gets hurt they are screwed. What a shallow group.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

March 24, 2016 at 09:09 pm

Exactly.

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holmesmd's picture

March 25, 2016 at 10:07 am

They have Boyd, Ringo, and the Pastor of Disaster...so there is that! ;) Lol

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

March 24, 2016 at 08:33 pm

Shazier is a bit small but he plays tough.

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holmesmd's picture

March 25, 2016 at 10:05 am

Cravens!:)

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dobber's picture

March 25, 2016 at 10:32 am

Love the idea of Su'a Cravens, but you've got to be able to protect him, or he only plays in limited sub packages...he's not going to be the 3-down ILB people hope for.

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holmesmd's picture

March 26, 2016 at 05:51 pm

GB plays base only %25 of the time. I'm assuming that means that the rest of the time they are in sub, nickel, dime. Cravens would thrive in every sub package GB has and I believe he would in base as well. It worked out pretty well for Buchannon in AZ and Cravens is certainly as good as he is IMO.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

March 28, 2016 at 12:38 pm

Because AZ has a strong DL and aggressive LB group.

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TarynsEyes's picture

March 24, 2016 at 02:20 pm

That trade option 1 thinking is.....simply not and the overall expected success to come from that Julio Jones trade has not come to fruition and has left them less than they were since storm trooped by us in the playoff in our becoming more distant SB win.

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The TKstinator's picture

March 24, 2016 at 06:51 pm

Everybody's working for the weekend, everybody needs a second chance (to acquisition the greatness of hoist the Lombardi trophy); but often the sound and fury of said efforts result in a less than satisfying end (which may or may not justify the means) (Natrone, of which, was a helluva running back for San Diego in days gone by); thus, here we are, and there you have it.

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Tundraboy's picture

March 24, 2016 at 11:31 pm

Quite Tarynish

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The TKstinator's picture

March 25, 2016 at 06:41 am

Channeling.

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holmesmd's picture

March 25, 2016 at 10:08 am

Lol

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AgrippaLII's picture

March 24, 2016 at 02:40 pm

Thompson trading up in the 1st round?...No way and no how! Trading up in the later rounds is more like Ted.

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Lphill's picture

March 24, 2016 at 04:43 pm

How about Karlos Dansby and a draft pick Also as Jake Ryan develops , don't have to move up anything.

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Mags's picture

March 24, 2016 at 05:54 pm

Dansby is visiting the Bengals today. I agree Dansby and a draft pick to develop for a year or two. ILB being a need for far to long but I don't expect to Teddy to change. Another year of waiting for a draft pick to develop hopefully into more than just a jag.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 24, 2016 at 07:57 pm

There might be a scenario that makes sense for GB to move up, but I cannot think of it. GB needs 2, maybe 3, starters (or remarkable health, or tremendous leaps made by some 2nd and 3rd year players) to be a contender this year, and some other prospects for long term viability. This is no time to be giving up premium picks like our 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. I mean, Hayward did play over 900 snaps (Randall can pick up a 200, but the bulk have to come from Rollins/Gunter/Goodson or a rookie); Neal played 734 snaps (having trouble imagining Perry picking up those snaps - more likely CM3 moving back to OLB after we pick an ILB, with help from Elliott and gulp, gulp Datone). Raji played 444 snaps. Pennel and Guion might be able to pick up the slack (maybe Boyd moves inside), but probably TT drafts at least one big body, and probably double dips.

There should be a few prospects available at #27 who will have a legitimate 1st round grade, and they will play a position of need as well. There is even a chance given the depth that there will be a prospect at a position of need available at #57 who will have a 1st/2nd round grade (what I call the 4th tier). This looks like a nice prospect pool for drafting players at multiple positions that we either need help at now or probably will in a year or so.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

March 24, 2016 at 08:34 pm

CB is our strength on Defense. A defense is only as strong as its D-Line. Our D-Line is sooooo questionable now that Raji is on hiatus and Pennell is suspended for 4-games.

If TT has shot at a Top 15 rated LB (inside or outside) AND DL he should try everything to make it happen. He has the comp. picks to fall back on. The team is already talented at the core positions (minus DL). I think this is the perfect time to get aggressive. What's the worst case scenario? It's not like we're the Bears/Lions who can't seem to figure out which direction the team is headed.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

March 25, 2016 at 12:29 am

You may be right. Not sure how high up you are proposing to trade up. I suppose one scenario might be moving up to #16 to #18 or so should Shaq Lawson slide, giving up our 2nd rounder. Well, Lawson would have to be a hit. With this draft, I think we can draft 2 above average starters at #27 & #57. I do not have ¨crushes¨ on the prospects generally ranked from 12 to 20 in this draft: I am not sure that the 15th best guy is better than the 27th. I mean, I see Lawson mocked a lot btw 12th and 18th or so, but I am not so sure he is a noticeably better prospect.

At #27 (how about Billings, Ogbah, Ragland or Spence) and #57 (Henry, Coleman, Ifedi, Austin Johnson, Correa). There are several combinations that I really like. (Not getting bogged down by the names - I mentioned Ifedi but I think he is a late 3rd rounder but many others have him higher. Billings/Correa or Ragland and either Johnson/Correa (heck, there might be a NT in the 3rd that I like) might look like a nice haul, each with a good chance of being an above average NFL starter.

But I do not mean to diss you, Drea, or suggest that Lawson is the guy you had in mind. It might well be better for GB to draft Lawson instead of whichever 2 guys we get by not trading up. I have even written that GB lacks difference makers on defense. I do not think we have any, but the closest would be Daniels and CM3 if returned to OLB. TT traded up for Jerel Worthy, albeit in the 2nd rd., but then again he traded up for CM3.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

March 25, 2016 at 03:23 am

Again, I don't follow college football, so I'm not saying which player TT should draft. I'm just saying if he and the coaches were to fall in love with a guy that they strongly believe could be an immediate starter/playmaker but thinks he would be gone earlier than the Pack's pick TT should make the move. Especially if that player is an LB or DL. Two obvious weaknesses of the Defense now.

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holmesmd's picture

March 25, 2016 at 10:20 am

I think TT targets guys more than any of us realize but you have to have a willing & reasonable partner to do so. I think GB get's stonewalled a lot in the draft by other envious teams. That's the other thing that makes the draft a lot tougher to find immediate talent in the high rounds as opposed to value based FA's.

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Tundraboy's picture

March 25, 2016 at 07:47 am

Agree TGR. I think we can pick up two solid players, BPAs, ones that could help pressing needs. Then perhaps gamble with remaining picks, perhaps trading up to some degree.

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holmesmd's picture

March 25, 2016 at 10:17 am

Peppers certainly makes a difference in many ways. Locker room & leadership for sure! Sack leader at age 34. Will be 9th on the all time sack list, and a lock for the HOF IMO:)

I would bet that Reed, Robinson, Billings, or Lawson will be there at #27? I would be estatic about any of them. I like big Mike and I think he's going to be a good player but Raji MUST be replaced. Much more so than a chase backer who I agree that the Packers also desperately need! I can't imagine TT passing on any of the above named monsters if they are there at #27? If he does, I'll be at Draft Town in Chicago and you will see me on the news acting a damn fool and kicking the crap out of the nearest Viking fan I can find out of utter frustration!;) Lol

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Tundraboy's picture

March 25, 2016 at 07:48 am

TGR. Yes. Please let's keep the high picks. We are going to need every one of them

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al bundy's picture

March 25, 2016 at 11:44 am

YA right Ted will change. Hey he plays cheap ball and is a tight ass and that wont change.

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Allan Murphy's picture

March 25, 2016 at 07:27 pm

Their is no player worth giving up all that we pic the best players and maybe trade one after the draft maybe but i'm sticking with they pic best player on the boards when it's the Packers pic and that's how we roll ........

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