Packers' Top Trade Down Partners Part 1

 

If you've been watching the NFL Draft as it unfolds for half of the last decade, one thing is pretty much certain, the Packers are going to move up and down the board. General Manager Brian Gutekunst himself has been quoted on several occasions of his desire to both "let the board fall to us" and to "make moves to get the player". As we enter into Gutekunst's six year at the helm of the roster, I expect nothing less than one eye-opening trade for a player the Packers like. It's almost a question of not if, but when.

In five drafts the Packers have made a total of 7 trades since 2018; with Gutekunst showing a willingness to do business with anybody and everybody, making deals with teams from the AFC all the way to the NFC North. With a Draft Class that I personally believe is mired in a ton of uncertainty after the top of the 1st Round, the eagerness to reach across any and all aisles to get the athlete that's most likely to help make the Packers successful in 2023 is a amiable trait. 

The pending Aaron Rodgers trade controversy aside (sorry boys, you'll have to get your rocks off elsewhere), I don't envy Gutekunst with his current dilemma of picking 15th. At his current position, the cost to move up would be too great with a smorgasbord of teams looking to grab one of the premier quarterbacks this year. Given the team's current needs, I surmise that it's highly unlikely a premium player will be available at a position of need and those who would be available would be a definite reach. However, moving down makes a ton of sense for the Packers, as it's highly likely they can still get who they want plus an extra player, maybe even two. QB situation aside, this is still a team that can compete for a playoff spot in 2023. With the 2023 Draft Class, it's definitely a case of "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts"; and it's this concept to where I will fault our current General Manager. This Draft Class is NOT about being sexy; it's not about generating a "buzz" or making a "splash". The name of the game is to simply reload across the board. The dividends may not be immediate, and it may in fact look rough at times, but if the Packers want to create a new Super Bowl window that will last 3-5 years, it's going to start with some nimble manipulation of 2023's Draft Capital.

Given a certain trade that's expected to go down....eventually, I'm not going to go too far into the deep end on this one. After careful consideration, I found 3 ideal scenarios that work for the Packers in the 1st Round.

*Point tallies will be from the Jimmy Johnson Trade Value Model

 

 

 

 

This trade really needs no introduction, the Packers and Seahawks have been chummies ever since John Schneider departed Green Bay in 2009 where he was once Director of Football Operations (Gutekunst was just a scout at the time). Of the 7 trades Brian Gutekunst has executed, 2 were deals done with the Seahawks...and I question how many more would have been done had the timing been right.

The Seahawks have the 3rd most draft capital in 2023 (3,754 pts), with only Carolina (3,777pts) and Houston (5,016.4 pts) having more. The Seahawks have the 5th and the 20th Overall Picks in the 1st Round, so I expect them to be "wheelin and dealin" right out the gate, especially with teams who may be looking to grab one of the top QBs in this year's Draft, which would only give them an even bigger abundance of draft capital when you're talking about trading a Top-5 Pick.

It's kind of difficult to make a "hard prediction" that this trade will happen, because you're also dependent on what 30 other teams will do as well, and the fallout that will occur from teams not named the Packers and Seahawks, trading up, trading down, standing pat, or making a selection. However I will make one here, I believe that Gutekunst and Schneider will have a gentleman's agreement concerning 15th Overall. Given the Packers' and Seahawks' needs, there's far more to be had for both teams if they were to make a deal. The Seahawks can continue to rebuild their depleted Legion of Boom with a premier defensive player meanwhile the Packers can make their top choice without spending more than they should. Many pundits, including myself have mocked a Tight End to the Packers at 15th, but I do believe 15th Overall is a little rich for that position. 20th Overall makes more sense, plus the Packers would gain an additional Day 2 Selection, which is where the real "meat and potatoes" of this Draft lies. 198th, while on the surface may seem like a throwaway pick to add to the deal but it really isn't. The Packers have no picks in the 6th Round, so after they make their selection at 170th Overall, there would be 61 players drafted before they are on the clock again at 232nd in the 7th Round. That's a lot to potentially miss out on, and it makes for our CHTV Draft Live Stream to be a little less interesting.

 

 

 

The Chargers don't have nearly as much draft capital as the Seahawks (1410.6), but this is a call I expect Brian Gutekunst to receive during the 1st Round. The Chargers pretty much are ready to go on offense, but with the sudden retirement of Nasir Adderley along some other holes on defense they could be looking to make a splash early. Like the Packers, the Chargers are expecting a pending trade with Austin Ekeler wanting out, so depending on when or if that happens along with the compensation, they could be a team looking to make some deals during on Draft Day. 

Even though the Chargers are just one pick behind the Seahawks, being outside the Top-20 takes the value down somewhat; and unlike the Seahawks this trade will probably come in the heat of the moment which could even command more of a price than listed here. 157th Overall would also give the Packers 3 picks in the 5th Round, with 7 total picks inside the Top-150; that's quite the consolation prize for not having any picks in the 6th Round and could yield a surprise role player in 2023.

 

 

From a point value standpoint this makes the least amount of sense, but again, this is a concept of "the whole being greater than the sum of its parts". Unlike the aforementioned trades, this yields 4 picks from the Jaguars. The Jaguars looked ready to redefine the AFC's pecking order during the 2022 postseason and fell just short agaisnt eventual Champion Kansas City. They'll be looking to shore up the offensive line to give Trevor Lawrence more time to find his weapons, especially recently re-instated Wide Receiver Calvin Ridley. If a premier Offensive Tackle is available at 15, I expect Brian Gutekunst to hold the de-facto rights to said player at ransom, and I do believe the Jags are a team that may come calling. If he gets more than one team, say the previously mentioned Chargers on the phone, this deal could get even sweeter.

This deal net an extra pick in the 4th (which we all know Gutekunst loves to give to somebody else) and getting a selection in the 6th Round. Whether Gutekunst actually makes a selection in the 4th or uses it to move up earlier in the Draft is anyone guess. Regardless, Packers' fans should expect a quality player either way. Day 2 and going into the 4th Round are where most of the gems will lie, so there's definitely some excitement to be had during this point.

 

 

It's anyone's guess who Gutekunst will actually do a deal with on Draft Day, but if there's one thing I do know, after Commissioner Roger Goodell sounds the opening bell, the Packers will be open for business.

 

#GPG

 

 

 

 

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__________________________

Joseph has been an avid fan of the Green Bay Packers since 1997, citing an affinity for dairy products during his childhood and his favorite color, green. Born in Jacksonville, FL, Joseph currently is an Active Duty servicemember in the U.S. Armed Forces. Joseph considers himself a lifelong fan of the game of football, competing since his youth well into adulthood. When it comes to the Pack, Joseph is particularly impassioned about the NFL Draft and collegiate scouting process, and will contribute regularly on CHTV.com leading to that year's upcoming Draft. You can follow him on Twitter at @joeyreyallday.

__________________________

NFL Categories: 
3 points
 

Comments (60)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
BirdDogUni's picture

April 04, 2023 at 06:42 pm

Why you giving them discounts Joe? They want to move up, make them overpay. They want to buy, make them pay.

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JosephR's picture

April 04, 2023 at 07:48 pm

I probably should have done a disclaimer stating these trades would be very conservative. I've done some limited studies on trades throughout the past 10 years, and have noted that trades that are within +/- 75 points on the Johnson Scale are generally seen as equitable. If you were to use the Hill Scale they are generally around +/- 25 points. That being said, outside of Top-5 and Top-10 picks, which usually involve a Quarterback I've never seen teams grossly overpay, they do to an extent seem to show some restraint.

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gmeyers1's picture

April 05, 2023 at 07:31 am

Maybe, but moving up a lane here or there on your list might make them more equitable.

1 points
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Ferrari-Driver's picture

April 04, 2023 at 07:02 pm

If there is premier offensive tackles available as you suggest, I would like to see him in Green and Gold. Big talented linemen are among the most valuable and scarce.

8 points
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JosephR's picture

April 04, 2023 at 07:49 pm

I will cover that in Part 2. I didn't want to delve into that given that the current draft capital should change considerably post-Rodgers.

2 points
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greengold's picture

April 05, 2023 at 09:08 am

Right ON, Joseph!!!

Agree 100%. I doubt highly NYJ keeps the #13, as the Jets will likely be stretched to their cap limits taking on AR, Bak, Runyan & Myers, if my guess is right, and that doesn't consider their needs to re-sign Quinnen Williams.

I suspect the Jets have done enough shopping, and may need as much cap savings as possible to make a gigantic trade work, while re-signing such an important part of their Top 5 Defense. They may be trying to unload as much draft capital to GB this year as possible to save those cap charges their 2023 draft would incur. Which begs the question: might we also see picks #112 R4 and #143 R5 included?

It's interesting to think about from their perspective, as their 2024 being tight on the cap might require them to forego any FA acquisitions, forcing player procurement to fall solely upon picks they can keep for 2024's draft. I suspect they'll want to push some picks as compensation into 2025 or further.

I strongly feel these players are all in play in a NYJ trade scenario of AR, because there is no way he would walk into their facilities with the OL they currently have, and he wouldn't trust rookies.

All things considered, they might prefer to unload their entire 2023 draft, which is 13, 42, 43, 112, 143, save as much as possible for their own use in 2024, and push out any higher remaining pick or picks into 2025/2026.

Is Myers worth more than an R2? I believe so, with his training in Nathaniel Hackett's scheme. Runyan? What about Bakhtiari, which would be a separate trade post draft? Do they sweeten the pot by trading AR for 13, 42, and knock some compensation off the back end of a post June 1st Bakhtiari trade with a handshake? It's possible.

Would that fall under a "future compensation," umbrella? To close the deal on draft day? I'm sure the league will bend over backwards to make this trade go through on Draft Day 1.

-1 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 05, 2023 at 01:51 pm

We can find Very good O-Line players later in draft. Green Bay needs extra picks and players to fill holes. Trading back is the smart move to make. The Packers have been very successful finding offensive linemen later in draft.

It also makes a difference where in the round the picks you are trading for are located. For example in the Jaguars trade scenario, pick #185 is the 8th pick in the 6th round. Way better than their other 2 picks in the 6th round.

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stockholder's picture

April 04, 2023 at 07:30 pm

I think this draft is too weak to trade down.
The choice is a premium player for years.
Or just filling a position, hoping for the best.
I wouldn't trade Rodgers for a 3rd. There is No return.
And I wouldn't trade down to pick up one either.
The choice is getting a top player that falls.
Or taking a egde player. (The strength of this draft. )
Taking a Te in the first rd is overpayment.
Especially; being the speed of each.
Sure there is always a Top 3. But can they block?
The 40 times won't keep this group in the NFL long.
We're looking at small school sleepers past rd 2.5.(75)
The secret of any of these guys is out.
I'm not trying to burst your bubbles.
But it's just to weak of a draft to trade down.
And expect them to be a game changer.

-7 points
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stockholder's picture

April 04, 2023 at 07:48 pm

Bulldog sophomore Brock Bowers won the 2022 John Mackey Award given to college football's top tight end,!
And Trey McBride won it in 2021. Ran 4.54 was picked @#55 (Sound Familiar??

6 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 07, 2023 at 07:46 pm

#29 Felix Uzomah Edge
#40 Cedric Tillman WR
#45 Tucker Kraft TE
#81 Zach Harrison Edge
#116 C. Valentine CB
#149 Cory Trice CB/S
#152 Schoonmaker TE
#170 Sidy Sow OG
#181 Max Duggan QB
#232 Justin Shorter WR
#242 Jason Taylor II S
#256 Keodre Coburn DT
For all we know Rodgers may be the QB ??

0 points
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JosephR's picture

April 04, 2023 at 08:02 pm

I respect your opinion. But your opinion is exactly why I wrote about this Draft Class not being "sexy." After about the Top 15 players I am negligible on the talent difference from 16 to about 60. I'm quite curious about which players analysts who should know more than me on TV call a "reach" or a "steal".

That being said, I'd rather have 4 "really good" players over just one "great" player; especially considering that there's no real guarantee anyone will "fall" to the Packers at 15th Overall (I'll expand on that in a couple weeks). Best Player Available doesn't really work for 2023, Gutekunst should look to add premium competition to as many position groups as he can (and especially positions of need). While your "great" players will singlehandedly get you to the playoffs (which Rodgers did so many times), it's your "really good" players that win you the Super Bowl.

We can agree to disagree, that's fine.

9 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 04, 2023 at 10:32 pm

I remember reading about how Bill Walsh and his staff years ago had decided that the players ranked from about 15th to 65th were very close in talent, so they traded to compile as many picks as possible within that range.

Also curious if next year’s draft is expected to be better or deeper and if it might be more tempting to trade any of this year’s picks for next year’s.

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JosephR's picture

April 04, 2023 at 11:30 pm

I remember that TK, and as you see, it paid off very well for Walsh and George Seifert.

The 2024 Draft Class on the surface is has quite a bit more premium talent than the 2023 Draft Class, but without in-depth analysis I don't want to get too ahead of myself.

If Gute can hit on just 35% of his picks in 2023, he won't have to headhunt for the "great" players of the 2024 Draft Class and instead can just let the board fall to him and get some players who elevate the roster to a whole nother level.

2 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 05, 2023 at 07:54 am

Thank you!
I think the current state of this roster is better served with 4 “goods” over one “great”. In prior years, I have thought the opposite. But right now there are too many holes.

3 points
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stockholder's picture

April 05, 2023 at 06:47 am

1 to 60 works. But try and get that.
Their going to give you 60- 90. (per trades)
And that just doesn't fit," The Really good" to me.
And Gutey hasn't hit the "really good" in rd. 3.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 05, 2023 at 08:53 am

We are picking at 15. It isn’t impossible that a player we deem elite drops, but it isn’t very likely from what I see. If one does and there is not a great need fit, then we see if another team will dramatically overpay to trade up or take him. But plan for the probable and not the improbable.

3 points
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JosephR's picture

April 05, 2023 at 09:35 am

60-90 isn't a bad spot to be in necessarily. Depending on what position group you're referencing, I can probably name 5 role players/future starters I'd be happy to have on the team,

1 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 05, 2023 at 02:13 pm

I disagree Stock. This is a fairly strong draft especially at positions we need, like TE and Edge. I do agree # 15 is too high to pick either position, but in the above trade scenarios we would be picking the first or second TE off the board or a very talented Edge. At #15 we aren't getting one of the top edges anyway. But in the later 1st or early 2nd rounds we still get a great player. The bonus is gaining a pick or picks that falls right in the area where the best Safeties will come off the board. And getting to double up on strong player position groups like TE and Edge while good players are still available.

We can draft gamechangers in the 2nd and 3rd rounds too. To not take advantage of teams that want to trade up and give away valuable picks for players they deem to be gamechangers would be bad business. One or two trade back scenarios could really speed up the Green Bay rebuild process. Maybe fill most of the holes in one draft since we can't sign any FAs.

1 points
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stockholder's picture

April 05, 2023 at 02:39 pm

Keep this in mind.
The three players your giving up-
Possible Bijou Robinson. RB #6 on draft boards.
Probable- Trenton Simpson #1 LB and best Tackler # 25
Probable - Nolan Smith - Fastest edge Rusher - #15
So you want Need over these 3. Even a WR?
I stated the "team" felt they were 2 players away- (Edge,WR)
I put the top Mackey award Te @ 53 last year
Branch is dropping because of his 40. like most S
You will speed up the rebuild process.
But who said were in a rebuild.??
Aren't you telling the guys to take the year off. ?
And expecting Money to put them in contention.

0 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 07, 2023 at 07:48 pm

But Smith is not the Best Edge rusher who can hold the point and front up OTs...Felix, then Hall. Need the Puncher.

1 points
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Vachio's picture

April 05, 2023 at 03:52 pm

That's precisely why you trade down. You go down 5-6 spots and still get a player of similar value while picking up additional picks. When you don't have a ton of consensus "can't miss" players, more picks increases your odds of getting a good player.

2 points
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stockholder's picture

April 05, 2023 at 05:33 pm

No to value. Yes to the player!

0 points
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MooPack's picture

April 04, 2023 at 08:03 pm

Doesn't seem they will get Jets #13, so,
I think highly possible they will trade down from #15.

If,
The top two OT's (Broderick Jones and Paris Johnson) are gone. Otherwise they take one of these.
The top Edge Rushers Tyree Wilson and Myles Murphy are gone. Otherwise they take one of these.

WR JSN could be a possibility.
Edge rusher Lukas VanNess could be a possibility.
RB Bijan Robinson could be a very outside possibilty.

else,
They target TE Darnell Washington and don't look back.

1 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 05, 2023 at 07:57 am

Even if (and I doubt they will) they took Washington at 15, I still don’t think we should expect him to burst on the scene as a rookie. But I WOULD expect him to start dominating in year 2.

2 points
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dobber's picture

April 05, 2023 at 08:10 am

His floor is high and the number of snaps he'd likely log as a rookie are likely to be solid just due to his blocking...that will give him the chance to grow, but I think he's mostly a projection as a pass-catcher.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 05, 2023 at 08:56 am

He’s a reach at 15 because he is a projection in terms of his offensive upside, but do you suggest we take him if he’s the highest in our board at that point or trade back and hope he’s still there?

0 points
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dobber's picture

April 05, 2023 at 09:01 am

I would trade back if there's a partner.

He'd have to be far and away the best guy on my board for me to take him at 15, but I'm a chemist and not a GM.

-2 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 05, 2023 at 10:08 am

Well it all depends on how highly they rate him anyway, which we aren’t going to know. Personally, I would trade back at 15 if Washington was my best rated pick available on my board. I would t reach for him just because of that, which is what I was asking really. Id be willing to trade back more than once potentially, subject to willing takers army the right price, of course.

2 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 05, 2023 at 01:39 pm

Exactly. Totally depends on how they value him compared to the other available prospects.

0 points
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Ferrari-Driver's picture

April 06, 2023 at 07:31 pm

Chemistry is the key...if the chemistry between Jordan and Washington is good, there is an excellent chance of success (Wink)

1 points
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greengold's picture

April 05, 2023 at 03:28 pm

"Offensive upside?" The guy can literally lay waste to anyone standing in front of him.

Pass pro? Check

Run block? Check.

Those checks aren't in the mail... they're shoved into his opponents face masks.

I don't hesitate to make the pick, and same goes for Kincaid. Both will complement each other extremely well integrated into LaFleur's offense.

Can you just imagine how wide open the 6-7 275 lb. unicorn will be leaking out into the middle in 12 sets? I can see more chain moving than in all of The Holy Grail, Ben-Hur, Game of Thrones and the complete Tolkien trilogy combined...

1 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 05, 2023 at 09:44 am

I am trying to be realistic and take the long view, but I’m (not so) secretly hoping that Washington is their guy. His writeup in the CHTV Draft Guide is glowing. Unicorn. Difference maker. Fits perfectly into what the offense requires.

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 05, 2023 at 10:10 am

He’s a good blocker with the athleticism to be a true difference maker in the passing O, but no real production to back that up due to lack of opportunities/usage. He’s a punt at 15 that could be well worth it or a big overreach.

1 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 05, 2023 at 03:05 pm

Keith Jackson caught 62 passes in 4 years at Oklahoma. But! He was All America twice and averaged 23.7 per catch.

2 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 07, 2023 at 07:57 pm

Hard Pass. Blockers in lower rounds. I watched most of the Georgia games. Bowers is the guy.

0 points
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greengold's picture

April 05, 2023 at 09:28 am

Athlon is super reliable for player slotting & valuation, from what I've found over the years. They have TE Darnell Washington going off the board at 18 to DET. Therefore, 15 probably wouldn't be a stretch.

2 points
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greengold's picture

April 05, 2023 at 12:28 pm

My dream scenario right now is that we land the Jets #13 pick, and take TE Darnell Washington 13, followed by Dalton Kincaid at 15.

I can't imagine a greater impact upon our offense, one as sure in both high floor & high ceiling, with arguably the least bust potential.

Be done with it, securing two of the best TEs in the draft, one in-line, the other a move, both phenomenal at their crafts.

13 TE Darnell Washington
15 TE Dalton Kincaid
42 OG Asim Richards
43 EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah
45 CB Kelee Ringo
78 S JL Skinner
116 WR Andrei Iosivas
149 DT Moro Ojomo
170 S Quindell Johnson
232 EDGE Karl Brooks
235 OT Warren McClendon
242 OT Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu
256 CB Mekhi Garner

-1 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 05, 2023 at 01:41 pm

Man, if GB could pick at 13,15, 42, 43, and 45, I’d be attempting gymnastics that I know I can’t do.

4 points
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greengold's picture

April 05, 2023 at 02:49 pm

You like that one? Check out this, same start... with a few common denominators danced around:

13 TE Darnell Washington
15 TE Dalton Kincaid
42 EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah
43 CB Julius Brents
45 OT Blake Freeland
78 S JL Skinner
116 WR AT Perry
149 CB Jakorian Bennett
170 OT Carter Warren
232 S Quindell Johnson
235 DT Moro Ojomo
242 EDGE Karl Brooks
256 DT Devonnsha Maxwell

I don't think there's any way NYJ gets this deal done without coughing up the picks. Their fan base will riot if not - and, it doesn't matter: The league will profit so much off of this that they'll mediate any dispute to insure it becomes a draft day explosion of exposure, and the Packers have "Good Old Market Value," on their side.

Backup QB? Danny Etling. The kid is more of a veteran player than is Jordan Love. Drafted by NE in 2018, bounced around all over the place. Danny Etling's 2017 LSU numbers were quite good. I'd imagine he likes LaFleur and his system, because he has signed on with the Packers 3 times, been released twice... His head is already well into this playbook of LaFleur's, since his first glance in 2021.

Hit a UDFA for backup QB/PS guy/camp arm.

-2 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 05, 2023 at 02:35 pm

I don't think we will get #13 either, even with the 49ers rumors surfacing. I would be happy with #42,#43 this year, a 2024 2nd that can become a 1st, and some players.

#15 is too early for a TE that you could get @ #28. So why waste the first pick on one. Edge rusher and WR groups are so strong we shouldn't draft either position that early.

JSN is a really good WR, but that position group is 15 deep this year with difference makers.
Why waste the pick on one player?

Bijan is a dilemma. He would be a gamechanger because he is better than Aaron Jones who is really good. And we could trade Jones for a 2nd or 3rd round pick, so we would be getting Bijan and it would be like trading back as well for an extra high pick. I also think teams will want to trade up for Bijan so that becomes another option if he falls to #15. And we save money by trading Jones. We win all three ways.

Bijan and Hooker are players teams will think they absolutely need to have so teams will trade up and give away picks. This could be a great draft for the Packers in a year we really need it to be.

0 points
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NitschkeFan's picture

April 04, 2023 at 10:19 pm

Love the article Joseph, keep them coming. Those draft value charts are kind of fun to play with and we as fans do not have a lot of insight other than those. But I must admit the draft value charts are a bit of a puzzle to me.

For example, the Jimmy Johnson and Rich Hill versions for the 2023 draft. You can add up all the picks in the 6th and 7th round (so that is 82 players from #178-259) and the trade value of those 82 picks approximately equal pick #42 in the JJ version, or pick #23 in the RH version.

Now I certainly like the odds of getting a good player at pick #23, or even pick #42. And I know each player in rounds 6 and 7 is a real crap shoot. But would I trade 82 picks for just one of those? Geez, I doubt it.

There is another Draft Value chart out there on the internet based on salary data after their rookie deals, called the Fitzgerald-Spielberger value chart at OverTheCap.com I know by now I have bored almost everyone reading this comment, but for the one or two geeks still reading, this value chart says the value of picks #242-256 (14 picks at the bottom of a round 7 if you had no comp picks awarded to teams) equals the value of the #1 overall pick the in the draft. Seems a little more reasonable to me than 82 picks getting you the #23 or 42.

That is all for my trip down this rabbit-hole and too much time playing with Excel spreadsheets.

1 points
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JosephR's picture

April 04, 2023 at 11:37 pm

I crossed over that chart on OTC and I honestly couldn't make sense of it. That was a couple years ago so maybe I should run back over it and see if I can grasp the concept this time.

Even with the Hill and Johnson charts, I'd still rather have a Day 2 player over a multitude of selections in the 7th. With that strategy, you're just taking additional swings at bat vs an
"all-or-nothing" chance on just one guy early.

0 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 05, 2023 at 08:00 am

Joseph, what do you make of the round 3 problems? Is it somehow formulaic to their approach? Or bad luck/coincidence?

1 points
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dobber's picture

April 05, 2023 at 08:12 am

I've heard GMs refer to round 3--especially later in round 3--as a dart-throw. In many cases they take shots at guys with higher ceilings ahead of round 4, where teams have a chance to regroup and reassess to see who has slid.

I think what it argues is that BG's instincts haven't played as well as they could in that instance, or that the bottom end of the Packers top 100 board has them taking more risk.

2 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 05, 2023 at 09:19 am

Let’s look at this

Oren Burks in 2018. Plus athlete, decent ST player, no instincts. Just a scouting whiff. Would have been fine as a late rounder.

Jace Sternberger in 2019. A guy who may have had some talent but either never cared for football or had personal issues. Bad scouting.

Josiah Deguara in 2020. LaFleur was ecstatic to get his H Back and said so and that he was the piece to allow us to do things the 49ers do. Never used in that role significantly. Pressed into service as a makeshift TE for which he was neither drafted nor profiles well.

Amari Rodgers in 2021. Bowling ball, ball in hand type schemed open. Just the type LaFleur wanted was the talk at the time. Never used that way, physically dubious fit as a non slot WR. Never schemed open or used as an option. Bad pick or Cobb taking his time and poor usage? No doubt a bad pick as a returner if that was part if the attraction, but at the time it was another “type” piece pick LaFleur purportedly wanted and seemed excited about.

Sean Rhyan in 2022. Super explosive OL. Impeccable record gets suspended. I don’t see that as one we should have predicted. Positional change may muddy the waters. Too soon to tell if he’s indifferent, good or a total whiff. Jury is out.

Ignoring Rhyan and pre Gute picks, the difference to me is Deguara and Rodgers being picked as fish and played as fowl. In both cases Gute described them as pieces that fitted a type/role LaFkeur specifically wanted and LaFleur enthusiastically confirmed that. Then those roles never materialized.

So two scouting whiffs, 2 seeming issues of filling needs that proved to be phantom and 1 tbd. The reason this looks bad is those two role picks. The why of how they transpired is likely complex, but it seems that that’s more the issue than a 3rd round bug bear. Whiffs of the Burks/Sternberger type happen.

I’d say the best answer is no more role picks for LaFleur unless he commits to using them as such. Perhaps no more at all. Perhaps that’s a side effect of management by committee. If so, stop that and we likely get better.

I have a suspicion that Rhyan too is a LaFkeur type. LaFleyr has pushed for players who have great burst off the line to the second level. Newman, Tom and Rhyan all have hyper elite jump metrics.

Perhaps the best thing would be not to pander to LaFleur and just pick good players and have tell him to just get the best out of them. Of course, that’s not Gute’s call in this structure. Perhaps this is a downside of a GM and coach being equals. We need a unified objective and to stick to it.

3 points
3
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greengold's picture

April 05, 2023 at 09:35 am

That is one hot mess right there. Gutekunst needs to address that and quit dancing around his major R3 gaffes. He should be on a personal quest to be more on his A-Game with every selection.

Last year's draft seems to me to have been his best work thus far. Despite that room for improvement in R3 remains.

3 points
3
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 07, 2023 at 09:15 pm

He should just use his round 3 picks to move up or down, instead of his 4th rounders...

0 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 05, 2023 at 09:40 am

Very thorough, well done!
Especially troubling is how players were picked for a specific role and then not used that way. Why the heck not? Gotta think they must have looked shiite in practice. LaFleur is the head coach (and OC) so it’s not like he couldn’t just slam them in there.

2 points
2
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dobber's picture

April 05, 2023 at 12:51 pm

I'm guessing Rhyan was a Milt Hendrickson pick.

2 points
2
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JosephR's picture

April 05, 2023 at 09:57 am

I won't steal coldworld's thunder on the gaffes, he broke that down perfectly.

I do believe it is an error in the scouting process that needs to be cleaned up. There are solid players in every 3rd Round, but Gutekunst is picking like he's in the 5th; selecting players with high upside, but also very low floors. It seems he wants to swing for the fences every time, but he has yet to hit a home run.

It's no secret that LaFleur has some influence on selections, but at the end of the day Gutekunst has all the power to pull the trigger on who the Packers are selecting. LaFleur's job is to come up with a winning gameplan and get the best out of the players he has to work with on the roster.

I think the best thing for everyone is to take a more conservative approach. Find the player with the highest "floor" and go after them, they may never be an All-Pro, but if they solidify a position group for 4 years or more, that's a good pick. The big issue with Gute's misses in the 3rd Round is he often has nobody to back them up. Barring I'd say Zach Tom at this point, he hasn't found later selections in a Draft Class that cover his mistakes in the 3rd Round. Things like that erode your roster and have you constantly scrambling to find talent either through Free Agency (DeVondre Campbell) or to keep chasing the same position group in the follow year's class (Isaiah McDuffie).

0 points
0
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 05, 2023 at 01:52 pm

Baseball: a few years ago, the California Angels were leading their division late in the season. Their lineup had a whole bunch of guys hitting .280 with about 22 homers, rather than 2 guys hitting .330 with 40 homers and the rest just warm bodies. Thus, my appreciation for the many “good” player lineup rather than 2 stars and zilch was born.

Now, I’m not dumb enough to turn down a team with the 2 studs and all the rest hitting .280/22. No doubt. But also, baseball has no salary cap.

1 points
1
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darudolph's picture

April 05, 2023 at 11:10 am

I paid and subscribed to the Cheesehead draft book but I was not given any information on how to access it. How do I log on to the draft book which I paid for?

[email protected]

0 points
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JerseyAl's picture

April 05, 2023 at 11:27 am

You just download it right from where you ordered it. There should be an icon to click on to download it.

0 points
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Turophile's picture

April 05, 2023 at 01:03 pm

Joseph. Trading for more 3rd round picks.....................THIRD ROUND PICKS !!
Do you know the Packers record here ?

But seriously, I do like the idea of a trade down........in fact i like it almost every year as there are players every single draft at the top of round two, that I covet.

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 05, 2023 at 01:41 pm

If we ended up with three 5th round picks there would be a lot of opportunities to trade one of the 5ths for two 6th rounders to fill the gap between 5 and 7. There are quite a few teams with multiple picks in round 6, the Jaguars have 3. And they are fairly high.

There will still be talent available at positions we need extra of. One 6th round pick was the asking price for the Broncos to trade TE Albert Okwuegbunam, a talented, underused player we could really use at a position of need. The Broncos are draft pick poor, they might even take a 7th rounder to move him. Its funny how quickly teams give up on players with untapped potential, but maybe we could take advantage of their draft pick shortage.
Denzel Mims is another high ceiling player that is available from the Jets because they have given up on him. In his case we don't have to give up a pick, all Green Bay needs to do is make the Jets include him in the deal.

0 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 05, 2023 at 01:56 pm

Just for the heck of it, on a draft simulator last night, I accepted all the trade offers for additional picks in the current draft. (Lots of offers included picks in 2024; I rejected those.) Anyhow, I ended up with TWENTY TWO selections in the 2023 edition.
Zany!!
BTW: I looked it up: since the draft went to 7 rounds, the record for most picks in a single year was 15 by the 2020 Minnesota Vikings.

2 points
2
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 07, 2023 at 09:26 pm

And they still suck as much as the bares... ; P

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 05, 2023 at 02:47 pm

The whole 2018 draft class other than Alexander and MVS was a huge failure of evaluating talent. That was a lot of picks to shit the bed on. I was really pleased with the Amari Rodgers pick when it was made. He was a very good player @ Clemson and played against top competition. I thought he was a home run.

1 points
1
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golfpacker1's picture

April 05, 2023 at 03:06 pm

I honestly think I would be thrilled with picking any of the top 5 TEs, Washington, Mayer, and Kraft block and catch very well. And Kinkaid and Kunz might catch a little better but its close. But if they were to both catch 80 or 90 balls I could care less if they just stood in front of somebody. In any of the 3 trade scenarios above we would have our pick of the litter so the smart move is to trade back get more picks, and still get the TE we want or a great Edge rusher.

On top of that the next 5 TEs in the draft are probably better than last years top 5. I would be really happy with Mayer and Laporta in the 1st 3 rounds if we had 5 or 6 picks.

Realistically we could rebuild 3 position groups in this years draft with a trade back and if the Jets trade happens. TE, Edge, and WR. Maybe Safety too if we get lucky with a second player late.

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 05, 2023 at 03:08 pm

How does everyone feel about replacing Crosby by drafting a kicker if Moody was available in the 7th round? It's time and that rebuilds a fifth position group. Cheaper, younger, and kickoffs into the end zone.

1 points
1
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