Thoughts on Jordan Love's Extension

The Packers extend Love and restructure Darnell Savage

 

We now know most of the particulars of Jordan Love's extension, other than whether the Packers used void years.  Field Yates has reported that Love's base salaries will be $1.01 in 2023 and $5.5M (both fully guaranteed) in 2024, a signing bonus of $8,788,765, and a 2024 workout bonus of $500,000.  Total guaranteed money thus would be $15.289M.  That would mean that the extension had $13M guaranteed rather than the $13.5M initially reported.  The workout bonus in 2024 would bring it up to $13.5M, but workout bonuses are not usually guaranteed: if they are, they are treated as a signing bonus and prorated over the life of the contract.  Love also has escalators that could increase his 2024 base pay by up to $9M.  These are the basics and Field Yates does not mention any void years.  Here is how Love's deal would look using that reporting:

 

Year Base Old SB SB Pro W/O Cap # G $ Total Cash Escalator
2023 1.01M $1.642M $4.394M N/A $7.042M $9.798M $9.798M N/A
2024 $5.5M* - - - - - - $4.394M .5M $10.394M $5.5M $6.0M *$9M
            $15.298M $15.798M - $24.798M

That structure would increase Love's cap number by $3.102M in 2023.  Love's base salary has been reduced from $2.298M to $1.01M, a $1.288M decrease, which is offset by the signing bonus.  Given Darnell Savage's Max Void Year Restructure (MVYR) which generated $5.457M in 2023 cap savings, these two moves would provide a net gain of $2.355M in cap space.  I previously had the Packers needing $3.5M in additional savings to start the season (not using the Rule of 51 accounting but assuming signing draft picks, PS, the 52nd and 53rd player contracts and a $5M in-season piggy bank).  That would leave the Packers a little over $1M short, but I suppose the Packers could get by on a $4M in-season piggy bank (which includes money for IR/PUP and acquisitions).  The Packers are at worst close to having enough cap space.  Plus, most still expect a Rashan Gary extension to provide $3M to $4M in additional cap space. 

THE ESCALATORS:

The escalators as reported by Albert Breer are complicated and necessitate the following table:

Amount Benchmark Needed
$500K Played 65% of offensive snaps
$1M Played 65% of snaps and won a Pro Bowl nod
$1.5M  
   
$500K 65% of snaps and made the playoffs
$500K 65% of snaps and won a playoff game
$1M 65% of snaps and won Conference Championship Game
$1M 65% of snaps and won the Super Bowl
$3M  
   
$500K 65% of snaps and in the top 10 in Passer Rating
$500K 65% of snaps and in the top 10 in Completion Percentage
$500K Top 10 in most Touchdown Passes
$500K Top 10 in Passing Yards
$2M  
   
  65% of snaps and the Packers win 10 games  OR
  65% of snaps and the Packers make the Playoffs  OR
  65% of snaps and Top 10 in TDs and top 10 in Passer Rating
$1M This is a max value: Love can't get more than $1M
   
$500K 65% of snaps and Top 16 in Passer Rating
$500K 65% of snaps and Top 16 in Completion Percentage
$500K 65% of snaps and Top 16 in Passing Yards
$500K 65% of snaps and Top 16 in Passing
$1.5M Capped at $1.5M - would need to hit 3 of the 4 benchmarks

 

The contract includes the above escalators that could increase Love's 2024 base salary for 2024 by up to $9M.  Escalators are not considered likely or not likely to be earned: they either are earned or they aren't.  For example, if Love plays 65% of possible offensive snaps in the regular season, his base salary in 2024 will increase from $5.5M to $6M.  These escalators are cumulative.  If Love played 65% of the snaps in 2024, and the Packers made the playoffs, and they won a playoff game (presumably even Sean Clifford played all the snaps in the playoff win), then Love's base salary would increase from $5.5M to $7M, and his cap number would increase from $10.395M to $11.895M.  Love's cap number could be as high as $19.394M.  The Packers could always convert base salary and/or the escalator cash to a signing bonus to reduce his cap number.

I was concerned whether the escalators were guaranteed for 2024 once earned in 2023 but I think it is moot.  Love might not play well and still play 65% of the snaps, but if he earns any of the other escalators, the Packers won't be worrying about whether to cut him or ask for a pay cut.  

LOVE'S CONTRACT WITH THREE VOID YEARS:

It is possible that the Packers used dummy years to lessen the cap hits in 2023 and 2024.  If so, Love's contract might look like this:

 

Year Base Old SB SB W/O Cap # Escalator Dead
2023 $1.01M $1.642M $1.758M N/A $4.409M N/A  
2024 $5.5M* - - - - - - $1.758M $.5M $7.758M *9M $7.031M
2025 $0   $1.758M       $5.273M
2026 $0   $1.758M        
2026 $0   $1.758M        

Using void years, Love's cap number would only increase by $469,000 for 2023, which when combined with the $5.547M gain from Savage's MVYR would net over a little over $5M in cap space, putting the Packers over the hump.  If the Packers extend Gary, they could have $3M to $4M available to rollover into 2024 or to spend on a player to help in 2023.

Love's cap number for 2024 could be anywhere from $7.758M to $16.758M.  Again, the Packers could convert some of Love's base salary and any additional earned due to an escalator into a signing bonus if they circumstances dictate that course of action.

However, given the amount of reporting by two different sources, neither of which mention the use of void years, I assume that the deal does not have void years.

THOUGHTS ON THIS EXTENSION:

This looks like an A+ job by the front office.  Guaranteed money is king in the NFL, and the guaranteed portion of the extension is roughly $7M less than playing on his rookie deal plus a 5th year option.  Love's cap does increase for 2023 but unless Love lights it up in 2023 his 2024 cap decrease should more than offset the 2023 increase.  And if Love lights it up in 2023, no one will care about his cap number.  It also give the front office flexibility if Love looks terrible and the team decides to draft a quarterback high in the 2024 draft, thus making Love a backup.  He could be released or asked to take a pay cut.  This seems like quite an unlikely situation, but the front office should prepare for all scenarios.  

The extension should help the Packers in 2024.  In my article "Trading Rodgers Doesn't Solve The 2024 Cap Problems," I assumed Love's cap number would be $22.272M, but now it probably will be several million less, though that remains to be seen.  

In terms of cash, Love will earn between $15.798M and $24.798M in cash over the next two seasons.  Had he played out his rookie deal, he would have earned $2.298M in cash plus $20.272M for a total of $22.57M.  The Packers probably will save a little on the cash front, but it isn't a foregone conclusion.  Love playing 65% of the snaps plus being in the top 16 for passer rating, completion percentage, touchdown passes would escalate his base by $2M while being in the top 10 would make $4M.  Winning 10 games or making the playoffs (even if 9-8 is good enough) would be increase his base by $1M.  The cash should be fine, and in any event, the Packers are in the top third of the league in revenue so cash should never be a problem.  Moreover, fans don't care very much about cash, just the salary cap. 

There are some who have suggested that Love declined to bet on himself.  I think he took the prudent course by opting for the sure thing.  Love could have called Green Bay's hand and forced them to decide on the 5th year option.  If the Packers folded and exercised it, Love gets $22.57M guaranteed instead of the $15.298M he got on the extension.  

If the Packers had been unable to reach an agreement on an extension and then declined to exercise the 5th year option, then they would have had to compete to sign Love at whatever his market turns out to be in 2024 based on the how he looked in 2023, or move on to another quarterback.  Overthecap estimates the non-exclusive franchise tag for a quarterback in 2024 at $38.56M, all cash and fully guaranteed.  I do not believe tagging Love was a realisitc possibility for the Packers in 2024.

True, if a player believes he is going to breakout in 2023 then becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2024 is a better option than playing on a 5th year option or on this extension.  However, much can happen over the course of a season. 

 

JORDAN LOVE'S PRESUMED CASH FLOW PRIOR TO HIS EXTENSION
Year Cash Guaranteed $ Cap #
2023 $2.298M $2.298M $3.94M
2024 $20.272M $20.272M $20.272M
Total $22.57M $22.57M $25.672M
       
2023 $2.298M $2.298M $3.94M
2024 $38.56M $38.56M $38.56M
Total $40.858M $40.858M $42.50M

 

Savage:

The Packers converted all but $1.08M (the minimum) of Darnell Savages fully guaranteed $7.901M base salary to a siging bonus.  That reduced his cap number to $2.444M, a savings of $5.457M.  This was one of the few remaining easy ways to generate cap savings.  Since the Packers didn't draft a safety high (though I like Antony Johnson in the 7th round), the Packers probably will keep Savage in 2023.  In a trade, Savage's cap number to an acquiring team would be just $1.08M, or a percentage of that if a trade happened mid-season.  

Both moves were good decisions by the front office.  Savage didn't have anything to gain by agreeing to the max void year restructure, and he certainly had to consent to it, but he also could have asked for something in return or refused.

   

 

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2 points
 

Comments (39)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
PatrickGB's picture

May 05, 2023 at 02:32 am

Thanks again TGR. I am at the point in my fandom that unless you are the one to break down the cap details, then I I don’t believe it. It looks like a prudent move for both the player and the team.

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Minniman's picture

May 05, 2023 at 02:41 am

Thanks TGR for a great breakdown.

One interesting quote: "Love could have called Green Bay's hand and forced them to decide on the 5th year option. "

He could have done this - but it's hardly the way to start off what we all hope to be a long relationship (and one which will may inevitably recoup every cent "left on the table") - As with the modern QB protection rules, even serviceable QB's have reasonably lengthy, multi contract extension careers.

On a linked subject, I don't think that Lamar Jackson did himself any favors in the way that he conducted himself during his recent contract renegotiations. I may be wrong, but this won't be forgotten by the Ravens in the latter half of his career - and I think that Jordan Love's management team could, or have, taken heed of this.

All in all, a good result for all parties for a relatively untested quantity.

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Coldworld's picture

May 05, 2023 at 10:04 am

Love could have done that, but he would also have known that it was highly unlikely he’d get a better deal unless he balls out this year. The team could have gone a different direction or at least made it clear he’d be on a short leash. Both sides know that if he shines, this contract will be replaced. If the result is somewhere between good and bad, this buys time taking pressure off both sides.

Love knows that this is his best opportunity. He has a system, players and coaches he knows and no team rival: he’s been handed the keys and the offense will be designed around him. It just makes sense to minimize the pressure, maintain the relationship and let football decide the outcome over a period not artificially constrained.

4 points
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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

May 05, 2023 at 03:18 pm

Huge difference between Jackson and Love. Jackson has been a league MVP and an All-Pro, and Love has 2 starts. Not really a comparison there. Ravens will do what they think is right for the Ravens whether early or late in Jackson's career. If they think he's the best option, they'll pay him, like they just did.

Jordan Love gave himself a chance to continue to develop in the only NFL system he's been in and to give himself a chance to early some more money than the 5th year option. If he wants a big payday for himself, then he's just given himself two seasons in GB to prove he deserves that, either in GB or elsewhere.

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croatpackfan's picture

May 05, 2023 at 03:32 am

Thank you very much TGR.

My assumption is that Jordan Love, judged by his behavior in the past is well rounded young man and th at he is all in with and for Packers. Also, this deal shows his confidence in himself, what is good sign. I believe they will be able to clear this cap mess in 2025 and than move forward.

Also, I believe this is confirmation that FO and Russ Ball had/have a long term plan how to solve the cap issues and build the team. I'm more certain now that all this plan started after this burst out of ACR in 2021. From patience comes perfection!

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murf7777's picture

May 05, 2023 at 07:23 am

Croat…I agree that Love is a mature young man. I don’t think just because he negotiated his contract his way means he shows confidence in himself. This contract also gave him 13.5M guaranteed that he wouldn’t have if the Packers didn’t do a 5 year contract. I would say just the opposite, if he held tight and made the Packers choose between letting him become a FA or give him 20M+ guarantee next year shows more confidence. Of course, injury protection is part of the reason.

This isn’t to say Love doesn’t have confidence, I just think by signing this give him some immediate security that he wouldn’t get by not signing.

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Coldworld's picture

May 05, 2023 at 10:16 am

I’m not so sure of that. Love knows that if he succeeds he’s going to get a big contract. He also knows that he won’t get that if he doesn’t establish himself as a genuine starter. If he doesn’t establish himself here, his opportunities are likely to be limited and delayed considerably at best.

Love knows the big money dwarfs the option. He also probably knows the anticipated cap increases will escalate pay too. He knows he needs opportunity to earn it and that it will come if he does and be transient one year thing if he doesn’t. If he doubted, hold out for the 20 million and take what’s there (probably) as opposed to backing yourself to beat it. Instead he chose to back himself and bet on earning the big money. To me that shows belief. The other way doubt.

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byu.tech's picture

May 05, 2023 at 03:35 am

it's a little survival gain for the 2023 season.
but the real point is love is making 25 million guarantee just because murphy/gutey/lafleur are taking time...everybody in the nfl know he is a bust. they tried to trade him, nobody was giving more than a very late round, they made a 50 million/year contract to Rodgers which meant no 5th year option and love release...so IT IS VERY CLEAR to everybody in the nfl that gutey considers love a bust.
but because of Rodgers asking to go to the jets they need to survive and so they gamble making this extension.

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PatrickGB's picture

May 05, 2023 at 03:48 am

“ everybody in the nfl know he is a bust. they tried to trade him, nobody was giving more than a very late round, “

Source?

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BradHTX's picture

May 05, 2023 at 05:09 am

Why bother asking? Move along, nothing to see here.

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croatpackfan's picture

May 05, 2023 at 05:17 am

Troll

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DoubleJ's picture

May 05, 2023 at 07:34 am

His bung hole

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

May 05, 2023 at 03:21 pm

The source is the voice in his head.

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DoubleJ's picture

May 05, 2023 at 07:36 am

"the real point is love is making 25 million guarantee just because murphy/gutey/lafleur are taking time"

No he is making $13.5M guaranteed. The total value could be $25M if he hits escalators.

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Since'61's picture

May 05, 2023 at 09:26 pm

Moving on... Thanks, Since '61

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Oppy's picture

May 05, 2023 at 06:58 am

Too early to tell, and based purely off of superficial assumptions, but it sure feels like something finally gave and perhaps Mark Murphy has conceded more control to GM Brian Gutekunst. The seeming 180 on their stance on Rodgers and now seeing a contract with no void year tricks to manipulate yearly cap implications- two things that seem to be items Gutekunst was not 100% on board with, suggests that maybe Brian is now finally gaining the type of control he should have had all along.

Hopefully, we see the Packers return to more modest, fiscally conservative contract structures and fully return the team's cap situation to a healthy state. A great place to start will be getting away from back-loaded and void-year structures that create the temporary effect of more cap space now but leave the team in place where we become tied to aging talent or continue to carry cap penalty long after a player is gone.

7 points
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Guam's picture

May 05, 2023 at 07:45 am

I sure hope so Oppy. Maybe Murphy understands that he is a short termer now (couple of years left before he retires) and is allowing those who will be with the Packers longer term to fully assume their roles.

Murphy went all-in on Rodgers and while I would have preferred a different path, I can't really blame him (too much) for trying. However it is certainly time to return to more conservative management practices and get their house in order for the longer term.

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Coldworld's picture

May 05, 2023 at 10:09 am

I’ve been wondering that. Maybe the brains trust felt that Murphy blew it last year too and the handover has started. One can hope.

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

May 05, 2023 at 03:25 pm

Oppy, you have to pay top players what they are worth or let them go. Period. Rodgers was coming off back-to-back MVP seasons which had not happened since Peyton Manning over a decade earlier. Having a back-to-back MVP at the most important position costs big money and they gave him market value. A year later and two guys have surpassed him and more will shortly.

There's no "modest, conservative" if you want to keep the reigning MVP. and literally no GM in the NFL would have moved on from a back-to-back MVP.

So it's time to stop blaming the front office for paying market value. Every GM has to pay their QB market value.

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Oppy's picture

May 05, 2023 at 07:21 pm

Yeah, that's nice, but I'm not talking about salary, I'm talking about contract structures and kicking the can down the line to artificially hold onto aging talent that you really can't afford.

When you are paying today's players with tomorrow's money- money that will be on the books and against the cap while the player may not be- that's fiscally irresponsible.

Up until the last 5 years, the Packers have done a pretty damn good job of front-loading contracts and keeping a healthy cap situation. When they decided they were going to continue to try to "run it back" year after year, they started playing the kick-the-can game.

Time to pay the piper and get the finances back in check. Showing Rodgers the door in 2023 was a must-do in order to facilitate that. Beyond no longer having his cap hit on the books in 2024, we're going to finally get into true rebuild mode, and hopefully no more void year contracts or back-loaded contracts will be added to the ledger while yesterday's kick-the-can contract hits dwindle.

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Oppy's picture

May 05, 2023 at 06:59 am

Double

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 05, 2023 at 07:05 am

I thought that the escalators were the most interesting things about this deal.

Pro bowl: Love competes with Stafford, hurts, Murray, Prescott, cousins, goff, fields, geno Smith, trey lance,Lance, etc. Not a murderer's row.

Some of those top 16 records might be within reach. I think a lot would have to go well to win 10 games or make the playoffs

On my phone today. My son the computer guru is in town and took my laptop for a wipe and then he is going to upgrade the gaming computer. I am terrible trying to use my phone. I see a typo in the article but I am not going to try to access the publishing program to fix it because it is minor.

3 points
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greengold's picture

May 05, 2023 at 10:20 am

Lol, THR. My story, to a Y. And, I thus leave both typos!!!!!!

Omg! It’s not easy being me on this phone…

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Leatherhead's picture

May 05, 2023 at 06:19 pm

'''''I think a lot would have to go well to win 10 games or make the playoffs ''

An average team, with an average coach, and an average QB, should win 8.5 games. If the team, or the coach, or the QB , were even slightly above average, one lucky bounce or one piece of favorable officiating could get a team to 10 wins.

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 05, 2023 at 08:05 am

I should have put in a poll. Anyway, I would put the over/under on how much in escalators Love earns at $2M.

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Coldworld's picture

May 05, 2023 at 10:27 am

About where I see it. The pro bowl is a crap shoot, but it usually favors longer established players. He’d have to grab the league early through his performances and thus national attention I’d think.

2 points
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Ron61's picture

May 05, 2023 at 09:29 am

Jordan should be paying the PACKERS for the bench he sits on and the free on the job training.
The best school offer he got was Utah State where he started only two seasons against weak D3 type competition. His junior year he had 20 tds vs 17 into and a 7-6 record against WEAK TEAMS.
SEAN CLIFFORD will be the Packers starting QB. Clifford was a 4 year starter at PENN STATE where he capped off an excellent college career by winning the ROSE BOWL. Clifford is a poised, smart QB with an accurate arm. He also beat out WILL LEVIS twice for the starting job forcing Levi’s to transfer. GUTE hit a Home run here in the 5th round.

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Oppy's picture

May 05, 2023 at 09:39 am

Get away from stats and look at the QBs playing the game of football.

Clifford is not the same caliber of QB as Jordan Love. The arm talent of Love is in an entirely different class than Clifford.

2 points
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Ron61's picture

May 05, 2023 at 10:06 am

Clifford going 11-2 and winning the ROSE BOWL his senior season shows his progression. Also, chasing Will Levi’s away twice is very telling of his ability. Don’t hate. Stats matter

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Coldworld's picture

May 05, 2023 at 10:26 am

The use of capital letters, the utterly implausible take and basis of the attempted justification as well as the apparent total lack of contextual understanding, leads me to think this may be STR. His appearance came very soon after STR was removed.

I certainly hope that not the case.

2 points
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Ron61's picture

May 05, 2023 at 08:47 pm

Listen Sherlock, I am 61 years old. What the heck are you squawking about with capital letters and str. Stick to the QB situation and don’t worry about me.

I’m old enough to have suffered through bad years and thoroughly enjoyed the excellence of the past thirty courtesy of Favre and Rodgers. I don’t like this guy getting millions for nothing. It’s all educated guesswork when it comes to rookie QBS and if you take the time to give Sean Clifford a look, instead of worrying about my punctuation, you might see his potential to give Love a run for the job.

He had a solid college career and that is fact. Does it translate to the NFL? Who knows but he’s earned a spot in the conversation which is why he was drafted by Gute.

-1 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

May 05, 2023 at 03:24 pm

He's about to repay them with great play on the field and dignified behavior off of it. What is he supposed to work for free? He had a 3 year apprenticeship. Even trade apprentices who are little more than an extra set of hands get paid.

1 points
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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

May 05, 2023 at 03:31 pm

Why was Clifford expected to be a undrafted free agent, and writers are saying the Packers reached for him? And why was Love projected to be picked in rounds 1-2?

Do you know how many college QBs don't make it in the NFL? A ton of Heisman Trophy winners flame out in the NFL. Scouts are not just looking at college production; they are looking at NFL potential Apparently scouts and sportswriters think Love has a ton more potential than Clifford.

It would be great if Clifford develops and becomes a great back up.

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

May 05, 2023 at 09:57 am

If Love gets close to maximizing those escalators, there will be a new contract in place well before this one is due to expire. Both sides likely know that. If Love bombs, his contract as a back up is manageable. If he’s up and down, he has more time to prove himself without hurting the team to a point that might force their hand and any further extension can be timed to allow a longer opportunity and can adapt to the level of performance at that time.

4 points
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jont's picture

May 05, 2023 at 02:07 pm

"If Love gets close to maximizing those escalators, there will be a new contract in place well before this one is due to expire."

Yes.

I may be overstating it, but to at least some degree both sides care little about the 2nd year of this contract. Love's got $13 mil in his pocket, Gute and Ball have one less contract to work on, and everybody expects Love to do well this year and get a longer term deal worked out next summer.

1 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

May 05, 2023 at 03:12 pm

Some hefty incentives. Serious coin for achievable goals. I like it. I would think Jordan does too.

It would keep me working hard, accepting coaching, constructive criticism & leading by example while earning a fine base salary.

I like the Contract structure...wonder if the FO is working on a similar incentive laden extension for Gary?

1 points
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Leatherhead's picture

May 05, 2023 at 06:08 pm

'''''This looks like an A+ job by the front office'''''''

Yup.

A first and a second for Rodgers.
13 draft picks, many of them highly regarded by some of the better scouting services.
We'll probably get compensatory picks next year for Lazard and Lowry.
As of today, Cinco de Mayo, we're about 20th in cap space. The median amount is around $12 million, and we're at about $10.4.

Between Star Wars Day yesterday, and Cinco de Mayo today, I'm about partied out. And there's going to be some serious Margarita action in a few minutes.

I never believed all the crap about our front office being run by clueless clowns and that we were headed back to the 80s. I think the Packers have a great organization, and it's a big part of why we're in the playoffs so often.

If Love plays 2/3 of the snaps....that'd be 12 full games....and is in the top half of the league, I'm confident he'll collect all of those bonuses. And he'll be a bargain. This stuff about betting on himself....maybe, he's just a guy who really wants to play some football and knows (because he's seen it with his own eyes) that if he plays well, he'll be rewarded in Green Bay.

1 points
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Bearmeat's picture

May 06, 2023 at 06:55 am

Digging out (FINALLY) from the mess that 12 et al forced Murphy and the FO to make from 2021-2022. This year will be a growth year, but we have a good organization. If Love can play (and I think he can) we will have a moderately successful year with the arrow pointing UP BIG in 2024.

I am SO looking forward to watching Justin Fields and the Bears suck this year.

1 points
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vin0770's picture

May 07, 2023 at 09:32 am

“It’s time for Jordan Love to play, it’s his time” are the WORDS the Packer leadership says. Words are empty and actions tell you ALWAYS what’s going on in anything in life. They don’t think he’s the answer or you don’t do this contract. Justin Herbert’s team lost and we’re not in the playoffs his first two years and how long did it take for everyone to realize, OMG he’s the real deal…one game? Special is easy to notice so them dicking around with money in his contract says they definitely KNOW at least he’s NOT special.

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