This Is What Going All In Really Looks Like

This may not be what most fans had in mind, but the Packers have gone "All In" on the 2021 season.

For years, fans have clamored for the Packers to go "All In."

The phrase "All In" means something different to everyone, but the general consensus is that it means taking a big risk to try to win it all in one year with the consequences to be felt later. Most proponents of going "All In" seem to feel it's worth ramping up for one big push even it means the team won't be able to compete for a few years (at least) after that.

Well, friends, this may not be what we had in mind, but the Packers have gone "All In."

Let's start with the quarterback. Aaron Rodgers, by all reports, seems to entering his final season in Green Bay.

If he is gone, Davante Adams - who stopped contract negotiations with the team because he wants to surpass DeAndre Hopkins's ludicrous deal to become the highest-paid receiver in the league - will also almost certainly be gone, as well (I could think of at least 3 reasons why, actually).

The "Last Dance" social media posts from Rodgers and Adams earlier this offseason are more than enough to suggest the duo could be done in Green Bay after this season.

But it's more than just replacing a QB1 to WR1 passing duo.

Becuase of the moves the Packers made this offseason, they will almost certainly have more roster holes to fill next year.

The Packers made the curious move to re-sign Aaron Jones despite having AJ Dillon apparently ready to take over as the lead back. They re-signed Kevin King, despite his injury history, poor showing in the playoffs, and a deep cornerback draft. They brought back Marcedes Lewis, they even brought back Will Redmond.

They did everything they could to bring back as many players as possible for another title run after two straight seasons ended at the doorstep of the Super Bowl.

In order to do that, the Packers had to restructure a number of deals, pushing out cap hits to the point that OverTheCap has the Packers effectively at nearly $50M over the cap for 2022, dead last in the NFL by a wide margin.

Given that they already pushed out so many guaranteed cap hits (and that the dollars that were restructured cannot be moved again), the Packers will not have nearly as many options for pushing out money again next year.

The only way they will be able to get under the cap is to cut players.

Lots of them.

The 2022 offseason will be a painful one for the Packers. They won't be able to restructure their way out of their cap situation because they restructured so many contracts this year and are simply running out of dollars to move. As a result, they will need to cut multiple starters to get under the cap - even if Rodgers and Adams have already moved on (if either of them stay, the situation only gets more complicated).

Removing that much talent from the team will make it harder to compete for a title.

That's what going "All In" is: taking a chance to win it all this year even though it makes it harder to compete for a title in future years.

Most fans wanted a bunch of short-sighted trades and big-name free agents to go "All In," but that's not how this one worked out.

This is what going "All In" looks like.

The Packers have a serious shot at a Super Bowl this year.

The prospects are grim after that.

Be careful what you wish for.

And enjoy the ride.

 

Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.

Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.

 

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15 points

Comments (122)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
splitpea1's picture

September 05, 2021 at 11:38 am

Oh my, try to be a little more optimistic. "The prospects are grim....Be careful what you wish for." Okay, so we might have to do a little rebuilding, but we're not exactly starting from scratch. So what if we're not a Super Bowl contender for a couple of years? Most professional sports franchises go through ebbs and flows. And it didn't take Ron or Ted long to navigate through the changes and get us right back on top.

Also, it was unclear whether or not Dillon was ready to take over as the lead back since he played sparingly in his first season. It was not a curious move to bring A. Jones back, either. Not only is he an experienced and electric runner who accounts for a significant percentage of the offense, but he adds tremendous value to the passing game.

Although I would have liked to see a couple of different things done on the defensive side of the ball, I generally have no problem with the approach the Packers have taken thus far.

16 points
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Duneslick's picture

September 05, 2021 at 12:16 pm

A little rebuilding is an understatement. Rogers and adams gone. they will need to cut multiple starters to get under the cap - even if Rodgers and Adams have already moved on. 50 million dollars worth. Jordan Love at qb. not only adams gone also lazard mvs tonyan not included in the 50 million. each of these that are signed means even more starters have to go.

2 points
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Bear's picture

September 05, 2021 at 03:27 pm

Over the cap has the Packers at $39,047,256 over the 2022 cap number. They show the Packers saving $26,970,588 by cutting Rodgers after june 1, 2022 & saving $12,500,000 by cutting Preston Smith post June 1. That wipes out how much they will be over the cap.
Additional dollars can be gained by cutting Cobb $8,250,000 & Billy Turner $ 5,850,000. That would give you an extra $14,100,000 to play with. I don’t think it’s time to panic.

18 points
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Oppy's picture

September 05, 2021 at 04:28 pm

i Don't think I'd cut turner if I could avoid it, but if that's what it takes to get Jaire under contract, so be it

2 points
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dblbogey's picture

September 05, 2021 at 06:53 pm

Look at you and your actual facts. Nice post.

4 points
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Leatherhead's picture

September 05, 2021 at 08:25 pm

Thank you, Bear, for stating the clear truth about the Packers future regarding the salary cap.

Rodgers won’t be cut, he’ll be traded, but it still solves over half of the problem. If we trade Smith in the off-season, how does that impact the salary cap?

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dobber's picture

September 05, 2021 at 10:00 pm

The thing to remember is the rule of 51 keeps those top salaries in place starting with the new league year.. Meaning: if you're going to cut someone with a June 1 designation, they're still on your roster and still count against your cap at the 2022 number until June 1. The Packers have to navigate almost 3 months between the start of the league year and June 1 before they can claim that benefit.

https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/ny-nfl-salary-cap-20210220-v...

4 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 06, 2021 at 12:52 am

There are some other problems with Bear's comment. Cutting Cobb and Turner nets $10M, for example. $10M is a good start.

5 points
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Coldworld's picture

September 05, 2021 at 11:37 am

Going all in, however it is achieved, necessarily results in upheaval. If that does not occur, the team was not truly all in. Nothing lasts for ever in football. Would it have been better to not throw the kitchen sink at the roster while Rodgers is still at his best? I think that would be seen as a waste as the past tends to show it’s not enough to win out.

As to the future, teams are always evolving. There is no guarantee that the future is grim but there will be a rebuilding process and perhaps a less QB led shape to the roster.

7 points
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Bearmeat's picture

September 05, 2021 at 11:39 am

Yes, but I think you’re underestimating how unlucky we got in January during Rodgers time. March Madness and the NFL playoffs are like that. We SHOULD have won another one or two, and it wasn’t just bad planning/play.

7 points
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Alberta_Packer's picture

September 05, 2021 at 01:35 pm

Certainly some luck is required to go all the way. However, I attribute the conservatism of TT as the main reason why the team hadn't been more successful during the Rodgers era.

7 points
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HawkPacker's picture

September 06, 2021 at 09:05 am

I certainly agree AP. There were quite a few years that Ted could have added a couple of players at key positions to get us over the hump. His mantra was always build through the draft when he should have looked at the opportunities like Gute is doing.

1 points
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jurp's picture

September 06, 2021 at 09:19 am

Yeah, getting Marshawn Lynch would've helped for a few seasons. As Maxwell Smart used to say, "Missed it by THAT much."

5 points
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Coldworld's picture

September 05, 2021 at 01:15 pm

Maybe in the years after our last Super Bowl I accept (I’ve no wish to recall some of those exits) but after that the first time I believe that we were legitimate was last year.

6 points
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Bearmeat's picture

September 05, 2021 at 02:08 pm

2014 and 2011, dude.

6 points
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Leatherhead's picture

September 05, 2021 at 08:44 pm

We COULD have won in 2011, 2014, and 2020. Those were good teams, but in the end we beat ourselves with turnovers and missed opportunities.

I wouldn’t call it luck. I’d call it Will to Win. Step-on-the-neck mentality.

3 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 06, 2021 at 01:09 am

I'd include 2015 as well had Jordy not gotten hurt. The Packers lost the divisional playoff game in overtime to Arizona. It was tied 20-20 after four quarters. I think GB scores more in regulation with Jordy. The other option was to trade a pick for a big-time WR. TT, of course, did not do that.

4 points
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flackcatcher's picture

September 06, 2021 at 12:35 pm

The defense pushed that year's team into the playoffs. The offense was a total mess with Rodgers out of sync and refusing to take the short game, losing Nelson was the cherry on top of a god awful offensive year. Heck, Jeff Janis (JANIS!) almost saved the Packers against Arizona. What a crazy game...

0 points
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Bearmeat's picture

September 05, 2021 at 11:37 am

This is what I’ve been telling the “go all in” crowd for a decade. ARod was too young. Let’s not forget that Denver has remained BAD since 2015 and got lucky as hell to win it that year. We’ve had no such luck. With an elite QB, you wanted as many bites at the apple as possible. Well, they blew it in 11, 14 and 20, and now they are truly down to the last dance. It’s an appropriate time to go all in. I’d have done some things differently, but I’m not the brain trust at 1265 and don’t get paid what they do. That’s why they’re there. And if they don’t get one by 2025, (jettisoning 12 will buy Gute/MLF probably 3 years post 21) they’ll be held responsible.

Were there mistakes made by TT, MM, Capers et al? You bet. But have they also had rotten luck? You bet. Even with the mistakes, we SHOULD have another title, maybe two, and the inconceivably annoying Tawmy SHOULD have about 3 less. But, that’s a single match, high variance sport for you.

Last dance. All in. Enjoy it.

Come March of 22, it will be time to say goodbye to 2, 12, 17, 18, 20, 55, 77, 89, 91. And if Jenkins plays well at LT, I think 69 will follow after 22. Hopefully, we’ll get a boat load of picks for 12, 17 and 69. The rest will be cut.

9 points
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Coldworld's picture

September 05, 2021 at 01:17 pm

I’m afraid that is very close to what I see.

2 points
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Bearmeat's picture

September 05, 2021 at 02:10 pm

Yep. And that doesn't even count the desired new deals for Alexander, MVS, Tonyan and Amos! We are 50m over the cap for 22 right now... 50m... oof

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HawkPacker's picture

September 06, 2021 at 09:11 am

And that is not all bad. If we get the right players/draft picks we should be okay in a few years. If you realize AR's age, this could be the right thing to do although you just never know how long a QB lasts when approaching 40+.

It would be great if we could win it all this year and AR would see the light, ala Tom Brady and take a pay cut to continue with the Packers although there would definitely need to be more cuts as well. Just an optimistic thought!

0 points
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dobber's picture

September 06, 2021 at 10:28 am

Pay cut will never happen. He's always been about being recognized for his achievements through compensation.

His cash value salary might be very low in a redone deal for 2022, but his prorated bonuses will likely make his hit no better than if he were cut/dealt, and then all you're doing is allowing his issues with the team/management/ball boy/hot dog vendor to fester and impact the locker room down the road. He's made his bed, and he's made it clear he can't stay in GB.

0 points
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therealcause's picture

September 05, 2021 at 11:42 am

If the team cuts several entertainers next year, somebody in entertainment management should be held accountable. I need my entertainment to continue to be delivered at a high level, even in the season following next!

5 points
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therealcause's picture

September 05, 2021 at 11:42 am

Duplicated

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NickPerry's picture

September 07, 2021 at 06:02 am

Obviously my biggest hope is the Packers win the SB, Rodgers has an amazing season, and all the key YOUNGER players who will help this team contend after Rodgers stays healthy. IF Rodgers is amazing and barring injury I see no reason why he won't, his trade value next year before the draft will be immense.

The Packers have IMO a pretty great secondary in place. the O-Line and RB positions are WELL stocked, and we HOPEFULLY have our QB of the future. With the ransom the Packers will get from trading Rodgers, the 3rd round comp pick from losing Adams, and their own picks the Packers WON'T have to pay the normal price of "All In" for years and years. It CAN be a quick turnaround.

I know losing Adams sucks, but paying a soon to be 30 year old WR (30 in December of 2022) $27 million a year is IMO, just crazy. Adams has been injured the last few years, a few games here, a few games there. The strain, wear and tear, just the punishment these guys put their bodies through is immense. Personally I'd rather draft a few WR's and get some more help for the D-Line and another OLB with some of the draft capital they get from Rodgers and Adams. Besides, NOT paying Adams and trading Rodgers will go a LOOOONG way in fixing the cap.

This IS the year. After 2010 I thought with Rodgers the Packers would have at least one or two more titles. That didn't happen BUT Gute has done mostly an excellent job bringing everybody back WHILE already having several young, excellent pieces in place for the future.

14 points
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Alberta_Packer's picture

September 05, 2021 at 01:07 pm

Of course this year is must-see viewing for all Packers fans. While next year's team may take one-step back, but, 3 steps forward the year after.

2 points
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SpikeHyzer's picture

September 05, 2021 at 03:05 pm

Totally agree, and was about to make the point that the strong draft this year and players in development at the well stocked positions will let us swing for the fences in the draft for WRs and pass rushers.

Wasn't thinking of what we will get for Rodgers and Adams, but it could allow them to get the very best players at some premium positions by moving up for their guys.

And a capitol is a building, while capital represents assets (a is for assets to remember which is which).

3 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 06, 2021 at 01:39 am

Of course, we don't know that Green Bay had a strong draft in 2021 or in 2020 for that matter. 2019 is certainly looking good.

3 points
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NickPerry's picture

September 07, 2021 at 06:00 am

LOL....Awww crap...Thanks for the correction...

0 points
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NickPerry's picture

September 07, 2021 at 06:01 am

Dupe Post

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TheVOR's picture

September 05, 2021 at 11:58 am

I appreciated the honesty in the article. What fans apparently are ready for is some unicorn transition from Rodgers to Love. Can't happen because Love isn't a legitimate starting NFL QB. Even if you were able to overpay all the stars on this roster, minus Arron Rodgers, this team won't be a significant contender without a legitimate NFL starting QB.

Its just true! While football is an amazing example of a team sport, and everyone has to "Do Their Job" and do it well, you're just not going to contend for a championship without certainly a top 10 or better competent NFL QB.

Look at the final 4 QB's in the NFC championships last year. Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Josh Allen. That just really says it all.

Installing Jordan Love to replace an Arron Rodgers is like a mouse [email protected] at QB. People are all in the "wow, give him a chance, he's played 3 games, all the rah rah stuff. In truth Jordan Love is exactly what his college film suggested from day one. He's admittedly a decent touch passer, that's undeniable. It's all over his college film. All those TD passes? Long looping arched touch passes.

Now the reality, doesn't possess a monster arm, that's simply a fantasy. When he does attempt to ramp up the zip, he's terrifically inaccurate with his throws, that's all over his film. Net Drill? Dude can't hit a net 10 yards in front of him, and certainly not with pace. Footwork is a mess. Ball security is not up to NFL standards, decision making is lacking. Do you like check downs? Get used to that! Doesn't possess field vision. If you looked at the preseason? If that was the QB competition in 2022? Love is in a dogfight with Benkert? A number 1 draft pick who pretty much didn't outshine or shows less potential than an Undrafted QB?

In other words - THIS -

The Packers have a serious shot at a Super Bowl this year.
The prospects are grim after that.
Be careful what you wish for.
And enjoy the ride.

As a Packers fan who wants to see the franchise compete and win? Better hope they can resign Rodgers, and then continue to build around a HOF winner.

-8 points
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StantheFan's picture

September 05, 2021 at 12:39 pm

Louder for the ones in the back!

-2 points
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croatpackfan's picture

September 05, 2021 at 12:53 pm

Are you troll?

OK. Lets talk about Jordan Love. You say watch the college film of Jordan Love. I suppose you watched 2019. Did you watch 2018 Jordan Love college film?

Second, if you are that huge expert, why all the coaches say trutfully Jordan is excellent at this stage of his career, except he need more work on his craft. His one ball, thrown from back foot in jump, went short because he was trying to throw it without proper preparation. And, besides it was PI on Taylor which was hard to see, but it was. He was pulled back by pulling his left arm and he was pulled back by grabbing his jersey. Similar mistakes did Aaron Rodgers in his second preseason, as young and raw QB. And do not forget, this is in reality first preseason for Jordan Love.

Many fans here and many reporters and Packers beat writers reportred that Jordan Love has in himself what is needed to be starter in NFL one day, sooner, rather than later.

Of course that things can become ugly, and of course that this can end bad for Packers and for jordan Love, but at this moment Jordan Love is on the right path to master his craft and one day become excellent QB for Packers.

I can understand your huge love for Aaron Rodgers, but that love told me that you were one of those fans who was booing Aaron Rodgers on his first start as Packers. What is even more interesting, it is that Brett Favre, who was more than God in Packers fans eyes was doing that kind of throws regularly, even in his last season (at Packers, at Jets and at Vikings, I believe). But I suppose you are disgusted that he is HOF QB.

Spitting on Jordan Love will bring us nothing. But drafting Jordan love showed us what dark fears Aaron Rodgers keeps deep inside.

1 points
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Packers0808's picture

September 05, 2021 at 01:36 pm

Love is a sure bet bust would be my guess.

-11 points
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dobber's picture

September 05, 2021 at 10:39 pm

You'll have to define what he would have to be to NOT be a bust.

If he turns out to be a competent game manager who can periodically carry a team, is that a bust? Is he a bust if he's anything other than a perennial all-pro?

If he turns out to be a "bust", it's up to this staff and management to assess it quickly and find a better option.

4 points
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Packers0808's picture

September 06, 2021 at 07:46 am

ABust to me is someone who will not be a competent starter just a decent back up.

2 points
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dobber's picture

September 06, 2021 at 10:29 am

And what does competent mean? Statistically speaking? Winning how many games? It's going to be a very different team and offensive philosophy behind him...it's going to look very different. I recognized that I threw "competent" out there...

The goalposts will always be moving for #10. Don't get me wrong: he wants this shot and he wants this pressure, so it's up to him to make it work. ARod was fortunate to be a statistical juggernaut, a superior QB to #4, and won a title early on. Unless he's winning titles, Love's never going to be good enough for a large share of the Packers fan base.

1 points
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Packers0808's picture

September 06, 2021 at 11:02 am

Competent means less than any good or decent. Means he will be a flop and traded for what they can get for him in a 2-3 years after he takes over if he ever does! You are sounding like Bill Clinton what "if" means, Hope that answer suffices.

0 points
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dobber's picture

September 06, 2021 at 11:36 am

Nah, because you're all over the place...

...uh...less than good...or decent...or a flop...or not worth anything in trade.

You moved the goalposts four times there. Kudos. But it will surely give you a better opportunity to say "I told you so" 2-3 years from now...IF he's not an all-pro.

1 points
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Packers0808's picture

September 06, 2021 at 01:25 pm

Wow is that really what you say? Sorry your understanding seems limited to what the dictionary says competent means! Gave a definition is all I can do at this point.

0 points
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dobber's picture

September 06, 2021 at 01:24 pm

<<Tips hat>>

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

September 05, 2021 at 01:30 pm

Your certainty that Love is not a legitimate NFL starter is in fact entirely groundless. While it may be the shorter odds outcome in isolation, the outcome in his specific case is very much up in the air. Neither you nor I can know how his career will go. Just as none of us did with Rodgers’ at the equivalent point.

What is certain is that Rodgers is not forever. No matter how much we might wish it. The reality is that, from Cap alone, he is either gone or here with a much diluted roster due to aging and inflation in value of his supporting cast as well as his own. The NFL is designed to dismantle good rosters. Unpalatable, but the cost of regaining competitiveness and good picks emerging is that cap may beat farther time to end this one.

8 points
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Alberta_Packer's picture

September 05, 2021 at 01:52 pm

Aptly stated - "The NFL is designed to dismantle good rosters." The NFL should look at the NBA for better and more creative ways to keep team rosters intact - e.g. sign-and-trades, supermax contracts, players exemptions etc.

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

September 05, 2021 at 02:26 pm

The NFL went for more parity for a reason. At the time GB was one of the big beneficiaries though I think it was the key to the rise of the NFL generally. That said, it’s biting us now

4 points
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Alberta_Packer's picture

September 05, 2021 at 03:39 pm

IMO, the teams are largely responsible for their salary cap problems. NHL teams have recently realized that if you offer contracts - especially to older veterans - commensurate to their age and projected productivity - they will accept it! In other words, paying players for what they can do - more than what they've done. For most NFL teams (and owners) this light bulb has not gone on. Had it, you could then avoid paying players like David Bakhtiari - a player approaching the wrong side of 30 and with attendant availability issues - an inflated contract of 4 yrs @ 105 million.

4 points
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CheesyTex's picture

September 05, 2021 at 04:36 pm

"For most NFL teams (and owners) this light bulb has not gone on."

Au contraire: NFL GM's were dealt a massive undercut by the COVID cap reduction, and had to re-do their short- and long-term roster plans accordingly. The "rules of the game" changed without warning, intensifying pressure, especially on teams with high priced stars already under contract. GM's had an expected "budget", and the rug was pulled out from under them.

As to Owners: Greed. It remains to be seen, but IMO failure to work out some way with the NFLPA to avoid (or at least minimize) the COVID cap reductions may have a lasting negative effect on the NFL's popularity.

6 points
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Alberta_Packer's picture

September 05, 2021 at 05:08 pm

Covid or not - my essential point was that third contracts are often the worst for the health of team salary caps (and thereby teams). In 2019, Bakhtiari's average salary was 12.75 m. Today it is 26.25m/yr. So on a value-to-cost basis - is Bakhtiari a 2X better player in 2021 than in 2019? Especially considering that he is nearing 30 and has been unavailable to play for the last 9 months? So why do teams continue to pay ageing, declining players - as if they're not? I maintain, that many of the NFL GMs and owners still have not seen the forest for the trees.

2 points
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Tundraboy's picture

September 05, 2021 at 02:25 pm

Spot on.It is the inevitable cycle in this era of sports especially the NFL.

2 points
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dobber's picture

September 05, 2021 at 10:42 pm

The fact that the Packers have somehow managed to avoid that swoon for so long is a miracle unto itself.

6 points
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Bure9620's picture

September 05, 2021 at 03:01 pm

Indeed it is. The legion of boom is a great example of this, paying Cam Chancellor, Sherman, Earl Thomas, and in addition Bobby Wagner and Wilson was impossible. Gute will have to blow it up nex year.

I think Rodgers, Cobb, King (voided years), Jones (voided years), Z Smith and P. Smith are all gone next year.

3 points
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GatorJason's picture

September 06, 2021 at 12:16 am

Don't forget Billy Turner, Lucas Patrick, Mason Crosby and "Last Dance" Davante Adams. Hopefully Packers can resign Alexander, Amos, Tonyan and a couple wide receivers with the money saved from cutting or not resigning the others in 2022.

The only extra draft picks in 2022 Draft will be whatever trading Rodgers will pull in. Not resigning Adams will result in a 3rd Rd pick in 2023 draft. Cap saving cuts in 2022 provide no draft pick compensation. It will also cause future free agents to think twice about signing with the Packers. Who wants to sign with a team if they know they will cut regardless of how well you play for them? The 2019 signings of Amos, the Smith brothers and Turner were all positive contributors who may be let go in 2022 to enable the Packers to resign younger players who are coming up for second contracts. That's the brutal part of NFL cap management. If you overpay for veteran talent in 2019-2021, then you have to go into a talent and salary deficit in 2022 to pay it back.

TT never got into this scenario because he relied almost entirely on draft and development to avoid getting into the scenario the Packers are facing in 2022. The flipside was the Packers were always competitive but seemed to be a playmaker short to make it over the hump into the Super Bowl. A "free" agent stud to shore up a weak area may have made the difference.

Thank GM Gutekunst for the 13-3 seasons and this very promising season in 2021. Understand the pain the Packers will go through in rebuilding years of 2022-2023 as the price the Packers have to pay for filling holes with high price free agent talent in 2019.

3 points
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dobber's picture

September 05, 2021 at 10:34 pm

There will be comp picks, too, for losses this off-season.

"Understand the pain the Packers will go through in rebuilding years of 2022-2023 as the price the Packers have to pay for filling holes with high price free agent talent in 2019."

Nobody expected Covid. Nobody planned for the cap to walk back to this degree without any kind of warning...it's unprecedented. In responding to the cap and trying to keep players for this upcoming season, they had to push $$ out which is--in part--why 2022 is so awful...would not have been nearly the case if the cap hadn't spun so violently backward.

I agree: when you spend, there will be a reckoning eventually. I can't say where the cap would be if this downturn hadn't happened, but the Packers would likely be tight up against it rather than buried by it.

4 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 06, 2021 at 01:46 am

The Covid Cap is why GB went all-in. Gute should have had at least $26M in cap space to work with in 2021, and another $10M in 2022.

There won't be comp picks for most of the losses due to turnover. GB will have to cut these guys prior to the new league year, and teams don't get comp picks for players they cut. Can't trade them, either.

4 points
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dobber's picture

September 06, 2021 at 05:47 am

I meant comp picks for Linsley and others...were there others?

But absolutely right on cuts.

3 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 07, 2021 at 03:57 am

Oh, okay. Jamaal Williams could be worth a 6th. OTC has Linsley as the top 4th round comp pick candidate.

2 points
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Oppy's picture

September 05, 2021 at 04:33 pm

You assessment of Love's arm is not accurate (dual meaning intentional.)

That is all.

4 points
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HawkPacker's picture

September 06, 2021 at 09:19 am

Why don't you check. I believe the FO has an opening!

-2 points
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wildbill's picture

September 05, 2021 at 12:27 pm

Not a day goes by that I don’t love the fact I got to watch the Lombardi Packers. Then came the 70s/80s. It’s just entertainment and I enjoy watching the Packers whomever plays QB. I go to Lambeau every year for a game, except last year of course, and starting next year my seats should be cheaper... lol

9 points
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Alberta_Packer's picture

September 05, 2021 at 02:17 pm

There was an inevitably to this season - due to the salary model - which overpays older players who are at their peak or just past - usually via a third contract. Of this group Rodgers leads the way, followed by Bakhtiari, A. Jones etc. That is why it is highly likely that A.Rodgers and D. Adams are gone next year. Also on the salary cap correction list may be A. Jones, P. Smith, D. Lowry, B. Turner, Kevin King, M. Lewis, M. Crosby, etc. What must be kept in mind, is that monies must be earmarked for the younger, 2nd contract players such as Alexander, Tonyan, MVS, Jenkins, Gary, Savage etc. So we're looking at a financial purge - to be followed by a re-set of the GBP salary model. If so, then a younger and more developmental team will be the result. Actually, I look forward to this re-creation. In the meantime, I will certainly enjoy this year's version of the team - whom to the credit of the FO - went balls to the wall because it is their "Last Finance."

10 points
13
3
flackcatcher's picture

September 05, 2021 at 01:54 pm

Well put AP. The ugly reality was set when the Packers signed Aaron Rodgers contract in 2018. All it would have taken was one downturn for the Packers to be in Cap Hell. Hello Covid. Frankly, the job Gutekunst and Ball have done is very underrated by the fans and media. Rebuilding with a Cap that got tighter over the past three years was no mean feat. If they could have lasted till the new TV contract in 2023 kicked in, the damage would have much less. There still is a lot of X-factors in play (local revue, Cap number for next year, advance of TV revue from 2023 etc. etc.) to know if it's retool, or rebuild. Either way, there is massive change on the horizon. Father Time is undefeated, and together with Cap Man there was no chance for this team. Credit Gutekunst for holding off the terrible two as long as he did.

6 points
9
3
PatrickGB's picture

September 05, 2021 at 12:50 pm

Ted Thompson is turning over in his grave.

-9 points
1
10
flackcatcher's picture

September 05, 2021 at 01:55 pm

No, Ted's in football heaven already looking at his draft board...

7 points
8
1
croatpackfan's picture

September 05, 2021 at 01:08 pm

Bruce, you are right. But, something else tells me that looks like that Packers were "All In" already in 2019 and 2020. You do not produce that huge Salary Cap "minus" in just one year. Packers were prepared in both seasons for that. This and last season we did not see any significant FA signings, but deliberately buidling roster for the "Last Dance". We can only hope that football Gods will shows their sympathies towards Packers. Because, you can build roster to be the strongest in the NFL, like Broncos did it with Peyton Manning, just to see how they were destroyed by Seahawks.

Also, there is one interesting fact how teams that were in the All In wons SB by preparing young rosters during long drought of good results and than brought experienced HOF QB to finally bring them over the hump. Broncos did it in 2 years (first they lost, second they won) and Bucs did it last season. Very few teams had HOF QB and building roster around him by bringing expensive FA on it. It is simply impossible because of the Salary Cap.

2 points
5
3
SpikeHyzer's picture

September 05, 2021 at 03:11 pm

Excellent analysis, and I would also add that having built such a good roster for the moment we are in right now, it will also carry over and be very good next year (possibly with more picks from losing Adams and Rodgers, which will keep the cap hit down).
This team is sort of built for running, as MLF stated it would be last year, and the passing game benefitted greatly.

Love may not have to be a star, much less a HOF caliber QB, to be very good in this system next year.

They will cut a lot of high priced guys to try to avoid being hugely over again, but I think they will have the draft capital and do have players in development, who can make up that gap in a hurry.

4 points
5
1
Coldworld's picture

September 05, 2021 at 01:55 pm

Hypothetically, let’s discount the prospect if Love starting for the sake of argument. Instead ignore Love and just consider the prospects before Rodgers as we enter next year.

Suppose Rodgers stays at a reworked but comparable contact (for the sake of argument). We don’t have the resources to keep either of the Smiths or Bakh and Adams. We are 50 million over without Adams. If we do keep him, we will have to back load. Without that pass rush, Rodgers would have lost a star LT or WR, possibly both.

This D without rush (no internal candidate beyond Gary) is likely scary despite a potentially strong secondary. If players progress as hoped, there might be a window to get over the losses in 2023, but Jenkins, Alexander, Tonyan, Gary and possibly MVS and Dillon and others will be taking it or looking to take much more money. Also, there are signs Crosby may hang up his cleats. Rodgers would be losing his remaining friends other than Cobb perhaps. Would Rodgers be interested in playing on that basis?

With this roster, it’s possible that if players progress the blip could be a year or two outside of QB, but that would require us to beat the odds with existing picks, as we will still be cap poor next year, and draft well above the curve to fill holes at OLB. We’d need to comprehensively beat the odds to get back to the current strength if roster by 2024. What are the odds Rodgers is still the same player and healthy in his early 40s and will he see that as a challenge he wants to play for? If he does, the odds aren’t certain that his body will cooperate.

3 points
5
2
PhantomII's picture

September 05, 2021 at 01:54 pm

Going all in to me is also trading future #1-2 picks for elite players in the draft or trades with other teams. This is something Gute has failed to do especially at the trade deadline. He values draft picks more than money for a FA. Sure he uses 4th rounders, but never high draft picks. I would not resign any player who wanted to be highest paid at his position. I would like to see players leave a few bucks on the table for an overall better and competitive team. Packers needed another starting CB in the playoffs. We still need a starting CB not on this team this season. Gute has 10 Mill to work with. Get er' done Gute.

-4 points
5
9
Coldworld's picture

September 05, 2021 at 01:56 pm

We don’t have the cap to pay an elite player. It’s not the pick, it’s the cost of the player.

3 points
4
1
PhantomII's picture

September 05, 2021 at 03:39 pm

It's the method. Could have cut P. Smith, Cut/ traded Lindsley last season, not signed Bak who wanted to be highest paid LT for a month. Adams wants top paid WR also. Elite draft picks get paid good, but not that level money. When you're picking at 30 it is not a fortune at #20.

2 points
3
1
Oppy's picture

September 05, 2021 at 04:43 pm

I'm just a simpleton sitting on couch in SE WI, but if I were a GM, i wouldn't trade future 1st and 2nd rounders to move up in a draft too frequently.

Draft picks are, by nature, gambles. If I'm gonna trade away future high draft capital, it's gonna generally be in trade for proven talent- a player that has shown the production at the pro level and the potential to continue to grow.

8 points
8
0
PhantomII's picture

September 05, 2021 at 07:42 pm

Agree, you would have to have the opportunity to replace a good vet you could not afford who is on 3rd contract or another player who is exceptional and helps you compete for a title right away. A cornerstone on Offense or Defense.

2 points
3
1
dobber's picture

September 05, 2021 at 10:15 pm

This is why Pace is running himself out of Chicago. He mortgaged their future--flailing about to make a splash and try to save his job-- with the Mack trade (both in cap dollars and draft capital), and they shot their wad further on the Fields trade.

They didn't get there in the first case, and have left Fields with an old and undertalented supporting cast in the second. It's possible they've found a QB--finally--but he's going to languish on a crap team for awhile.

5 points
5
0
flackcatcher's picture

September 06, 2021 at 12:47 pm

That is if he survives the next three years...

2 points
2
0
stockholder's picture

September 05, 2021 at 02:01 pm

Adams at 27 mil. is a joke. Trade Bahk if he "can" come back. Bad Backs? Why resign the Smiths. Rodgers will retire if that wall breaks. And expect more running. Thats what I see. So as much as Gute did a good job with the cap. The can must stop going down the road. If these guys can't win. Get out of the contracts. This is win or else.

-5 points
6
11
Alberta_Packer's picture

September 05, 2021 at 03:49 pm

Either pay Adams 27m - or re-sign Tonyan, MVS, Barnes, Taylor for equal or less than 27m. Easy choice for me. Methinks Jenkins may be auditioning for the LT position in the next year or two. I don't see Bakh finishing his contract in GB. Certainly P. Smith is replaceable. As for Z. Smith - back injuries are a red flag. Rarely does this injury just go away. Even if the Packers win the SB this year - I anticipate a wholesale change in the team for next year.

11 points
11
0
PhantomII's picture

September 05, 2021 at 03:46 pm

A perfect time to use a future 1-2 pick and draft an elite WR to replace Adams for le$$, like Gute should have done instead of LOVE.

-4 points
2
6
Alberta_Packer's picture

September 05, 2021 at 03:56 pm

It seems that was his plan A - but all the WRs they wanted had been selected. So Plan B - grasping the brass ring.

3 points
4
1
PhantomII's picture

September 05, 2021 at 04:02 pm

I don't know if Gute could not get to (A.)#20 or would not drop the draft capital to get there for sure....but the end result is the same...No heir apparent to Adams lofty $$$ desire. Jefferson is going to be a thorn if the Queens get a QB to hurt us eventually.

0 points
3
3
Alberta_Packer's picture

September 05, 2021 at 04:31 pm

From some of the reports I read - Jefferson was really the apple of Gutekunst's eye. His draft chess was primarily intended to select him.

2 points
2
0
dobber's picture

September 06, 2021 at 11:38 am

Yeah...at this point there are half a dozen narratives and this is one.

0 points
0
0
Swisch's picture

September 05, 2021 at 06:31 pm

Fans tend to think of Justin Jefferson selected by the Vikings at #22 in the 2020 draft, although he was not around for the Packers to pick, anyway.
They may forget about Laquon Treadwell selected by the Vikings at #23 in the 2016 draft. He's a free agent at present, I think, so the Packers could get him for free.
In other words, it's not a sure thing taking a wide receiver in the first round, any more than it's a sure thing taking a quarterback.
***
Here's a possible pattern for the Packers as far as drafting (and obtaining undrafted free agents): Take guys who are undervalued because of down senior years, but showed well in college football previously.
That's what happened with Jordan Love and Kylin Hill, apparently due to coaching changes at their colleges that were not good fits for them. Like Hill, Patrick Taylor rushed for more than 1,000 yards as a junior, but in his case was limited by injury as a senior.
I don't know if there are other examples, but would be glad to hear of any. Jack Heflin was a star at Northern Illinois; I don't know why he wasn't drafted by the NFL after having transferred to Iowa.
***
In the case of Love, the Packers hoped to never have so bad of a season so as to get one of the first picks in the draft for selecting a premier quarterback.
They had an opportunity to draft Love late in the first round, while his talent is perhaps comparable to quarterbacks taken early in the first round.
At the time of drafting Love, an aging Aaron Rodgers had two recent season of serious injury, and when playing was somewhat inconsistent (as best I can recall). Also, the front office and coaches may have noticed some attitude concerns that indicated him as being more or less unreliable, as was manifested in his melodrama of the past offseason.
Love was perhaps not the first choice of the Packers going into the 2020 draft. However, at the end of the first round, as desired players came off the board and Love was still available, they apparently seized the situation.
The selection of Love was a rare opportunity and a smart move, perhaps brilliant.
Rodgers should understand, as he was chosen under similar circumstances in the 2005 draft when he was surprisingly around at #24 overall -- an unexpected find for the Packers to provide for the future, hard to pass up in the latter years of Brett Favre's career.
We'll see about Jordan Love, but I'm glad we have him on our side.

7 points
8
1
PhantomII's picture

September 05, 2021 at 05:15 pm

He's from LSU and a great WR. Maybe Gute didn't think so...I did. The other was Claypool. GB unfortunately is okay picking up WR's in 2-5 rounds. They almost always take 3+ years to contribute, but are usually stellar after that. Rodgers does not have 2-3 years to wait.

-2 points
2
4
croatpackfan's picture

September 06, 2021 at 03:19 am

I understand all those opinions on players made by fans. They think they found HOF player on some college team. Why? Because that player had production. But there is much more cases how excellent production in college football were not translated to the NFL. Many of those players do not have opportunity to speed up their game, or beef up their game, or dedicate themselves to high NFL standard. On each excellent rookie, there is 50 "NFL busts".

I will mention that Packers were taken 1st and 2nd high ranked college players through the past (exception is TT with Randall and Rollins) drafts, just to find those players do not have what is need to upgrade their game to NFL level. There is so many examples that it is hard to count and hard to list the names. Not only for Packers. One of the last high draft picks who was predicted to be late 1st rounder, but Packers got him in the 2nd round is Josh Jackson. For Packers he is bust!

Also, my life experience tells me that people who criticize others for their job 95% knows s*it about the job person who is criticize is doing. They have mostly romantic view how their job is done. And, based on that presumption they feel how they would be better and more clever than the person who is on the job. Also, it is not that one person doing complex job alone. Top person, publicly exposed is just on the top of complex organization in which many "small" pieces are settled down, so that person on the top can do his job at the end. Very simple explanation of this is when you ask many what the GM (not in football) doing at his job, you'll got the answer like: reading the newspapers, f*cking his secretary, spending his money from huge salary, travelling for pleasure, etc... I always say to that people - yeah, sure!

Every one from this site who is just proclaiming how he knows that one player is bad and his choice is future HOF is acting like those people. I'm 61 and counting and never ever made a mistake when people who have nothing to lose claiming that they are better experts than ones who is actually paid for their job proclaiming as ignorants. This is not wrote with intention to offend anybody here, just to warn people that discussions should take into consideration facts we knows s*it about them as those facts are top secrets of any managements. We do not know many facts that comes into decisions of top people. Result, as consequence of those decision might be just partially used for judgement on their jobs.

We can give our opinions here (what I'm trying to do) but we have to be aware that we are missing lot of facts behind any and every decision.

2 points
2
0
PhantomII's picture

September 06, 2021 at 10:38 am

All GM's Whiff on highly touted players. We do not know much about players past, troubles, etc. The team does the due diligence there. I did not pay much attention to drafting of WR when Jordy did his thing and Cobb years earlier and recently Adams. It would be nice not to wait 3,4 years for the WR to contribute at a high level while they are still cheap. I think there is a cap problem when they contribute last season before they get paid. I would like to see urgency on players that can contribute right away instead of a longer project. Jefferson and Claypool were my 2 draft picks, one would take more capital to reach and 1 should be there in the first round. Claypool did not go in the first....but should have. Just watching film they looked ready, although I thought Sternberger would be doing something for us by now...He has not put in the effort to learn the playbook and offseason to train to be great.
Nobody hits them all. Desire to be great is huge for the player to do his part and that's not always easy to tell how much they can handle.

1 points
2
1
HawkPacker's picture

September 06, 2021 at 09:36 am

Well done Swisch.

1 points
1
0
Oppy's picture

September 05, 2021 at 05:34 pm

Wideouts aren't nearly as hard to cultivate as QBs

I don't understand the logic.

2 points
3
1
Swisch's picture

September 05, 2021 at 06:13 pm

The logic was getting a great player as a bargain draft pick, or even undrafted.
Also, the logic was about why the Packers possibly drafted Love in the way that we did.
***
However, as to your point, Oppy, for all of the outstanding wide receivers who have played for the Packers over the years, when was the last time we had one who excelled as a rookie, or even in his second year?
Sterling Sharpe?
It seems to generally take awhile for wide receivers to figure out the NFL, too.

2 points
3
1
Oppy's picture

September 06, 2021 at 01:47 am

It's not about how long it takes a WR or QB to develop into a quality starter, it's about how many exist that even have the talent to grow into a quality starter at all.

good to Great WRs are virtually a dime a dozen compared to good to great QBs.

1 points
2
1
PhantomII's picture

September 06, 2021 at 10:53 am

Let's not forget there are a lot of poorly ran NFL teams that draft high every year and don't give their highly drafted QB a quality OL, RB,TE,WR's to do anything with, nor a Defense to give him another opportunity. Look at
Bengals QB crunched as a rookie. Jets QB will be running for his life half the season if he does not get injured. The Chiefs had a team built and ready to rock when Mahomes was drafted.....quite a difference with great coaching and great players surrounding him. How much could he or would he be able to do on a poor team with a poor GM and cheap owner???

1 points
2
1
Oppy's picture

September 06, 2021 at 12:22 pm

Developing a great QB doesn't require a great WR, great TE, great RB.

It does require good coaching and a decent OL.

If you have an OL that can get the QB the ball cleanly and give him 2.5 to 3 seconds in the pocket more often than not, that's what's needed to allow a QB to do his job effectively. There's a number of things that happen after the QB does his job effectively that can determine the outcome of the play.

There's a difference between skill/talent and success.

As far as this need to draft a top tier WR to replace Adams, I can only point to all the games where Adams was sidelined over the last few years and how the offense fared. Up until this year, everyone claimed this team was devoid of WR talent after Davante. This scheme and the WRs on it are more than enough to move the ball on opposing defenses without an elite WR. You just have to buy in and take what's being given.

1 points
2
1
Oppy's picture

September 06, 2021 at 12:25 pm

For what it's worth, I'm all for continually attempting to upgrade at all positions, WR included. I just don't think a top tier WR acquisition was anywhere near the top of the needs list in recent years to sustain long term success. I do think the search for Rodgers eventual replacement has been, however.

1 points
2
1
PhantomII's picture

September 06, 2021 at 01:38 pm

A Great QB requires a GREAT support system around him....period, top to bottom or else he goes nowhere in his career and is likely hurt often. Elite talent mandates defenses honor it with double coverage opening the run game more as well as other WR's. Elite Defensive players effectively shut down areas of the field to operate...it matters.

-2 points
0
2
Oppy's picture

September 06, 2021 at 02:13 pm

You are confusing a single player's execution and skill level with team results.

The only thing a QB controls are calls/adjustments, decision making, and throw accuracy. Foot work. Throwing motion. That's it.

The difference between most fans and scouts: Scouts assess the talent level of a player, fans look at team results. two different things.

0 points
1
1
dobber's picture

September 05, 2021 at 10:19 pm

Bakhtiari will be with the Packers in 2022 for sure...his contract as it stands makes him unmovable until after that season. There's relief after that if he's cut or dealt.

3 points
3
0
JohnnyLogan's picture

September 05, 2021 at 03:53 pm

Definitely not all in. Gute kept the offense together, that's true, but he did very little to improve an average to poor defense. Weak at CB and ILB, as we have been for years. Where's the all-in?

-9 points
2
11
Oppy's picture

September 05, 2021 at 04:37 pm

There's a salary cap, JOhnnyLogan.
What the Packers did to manage salaries and keep the great majority of this team together is a near miracle. That's where the all-in is. They leveraged the financial health of the Packers in 2022 for one last shot at a SB with Rodgers.

10 points
10
0
JohnnyLogan's picture

September 05, 2021 at 11:32 pm

Oppy, we all know there's a salary cap, been one for years. Every team has the same one. All I'm saying, if he was all in, and he knew the offense was the best in football last year, and the defense... well, wasn't, he might have found a way to trade for decent CB and look to find the savings elsewhere.

For instance, King is making $8 million. Lowry and Lancaster are Jags and we could do without their salaries. Those three salaries alone bring you a better corner than King, and I'm willing to bet you now Oppy you'll be saying the same thing once we start to see King get beat and grab the jersey of every quick receiver he has to cover. He simply can't stay with speed receiver anymore, he was one of the lowest-rated corners in football last year.

There's a big hole in this defense and it should have been addressed doubly, once in the draft, which Gute did, and once in free agency. That's how you go all in.

-3 points
2
5
dobber's picture

September 06, 2021 at 06:00 am

"For instance, King is making $8 million."

No he's not. He's counting about $2M against the cap this season with a bunch of voidable years on his deal. Prior to restructuring Lowry's deal, he would've saved them about $3M. Lancaster is costing them about $1.2M against the cap. Combined, they get you about $6M on the 2021 cap. Those were calls that would've had to have been made pre-draft (March) to find the kind of player you're looking for.

Not to mention you lose 2 DL and push greater needs there, as well--and many would agree with your assessments of Lowry and Lancaster, but it would've forced their hands to address that position in the draft (and still likely be looking for CB help). In this case, you're not fixing holes, you're just moving them around.

8 points
8
0
JohnnyLogan's picture

September 06, 2021 at 11:02 am

You're right of course about the King cap hit. But... much much bigger hole at CB than DL. We all complained last year about King, Lowry, and Lancaster. Which one cost us the game?

-1 points
0
1
dobber's picture

September 06, 2021 at 11:40 am

I would say Will Redmond, but there are about half a dozen narratives here, too, so it depends on which players you like, which ones you don't, and how that fits into how the game turned out.

0 points
0
0
croatpackfan's picture

September 07, 2021 at 12:28 pm

JihnnyLogan - "Which one cost us the game?"

Neither. That game was lost because Aaron Rođers rape the ball by throwing to Davante Adams 3 times in the while he was dozble or triple covered.

0 points
0
0
Alberta_Packer's picture

September 05, 2021 at 05:33 pm

Perhaps JL - your comment would better be directed to A.R. It was he who insisted that R. Cobb be brought into the offense (really, when it was a rather low priority). Because of the Packers tight salary cap position - they had to shoe horn Cobb's contract into their structure - virtually leaving no opportunity for any other signings. Now I cannot speak for Gutekunst, but my guess is that he would rather have signed/traded for a solid d-lineman than an aged, oft-injured and relatively expensive slot receiver.

6 points
7
1
JohnnyLogan's picture

September 05, 2021 at 11:36 pm

I happen to think Cobb was a good signing. I always think in terms of how strong will we be in the playoffs, not during the year, because with Rodgers and LaFleur's smart offense it's highly likely we get to the playoffs.

Cobb will be a huge asset once we get there. He's always played well in big games, knows how to get open, and Rodgers knows how to find him. He might have helped in those three red-zone failures we had in the 4th quarter against Tampa.

The money to strengthen the defense could have been found elsewhere.

-5 points
0
5
croatpackfan's picture

September 06, 2021 at 03:23 am

Still that money found somewhere is counting to the Salary Cap. You can not pay player from side. Every cent you pay player, no matter what was the source of money counts against Salary Cap.

2 points
2
0
JohnnyLogan's picture

September 06, 2021 at 11:00 am

Croat, thank you for the education but if you pay Cobb you make it up by not paying someone else, like King, or Lowry, or Lancaster, or Patrick... that's how it works. There are ways to have both Cobb and a better CB than King.

0 points
0
0
croatpackfan's picture

September 07, 2021 at 12:30 pm

And who will than play CB or on DL. Cobb?

-1 points
0
1
JohnnyLogan's picture

September 08, 2021 at 09:35 am

Croat, your framing the question wrong... but never mind. Let's revisit this discussion once King starts giving up easy completions, TDs, and goes on IR. Then you'll be begging for a CB.

0 points
0
0
flackcatcher's picture

September 08, 2021 at 02:20 pm

Come on JL. Croat's framing was dead on. With the Cap such as it is, Gutekunst would have to give up a core player to get what you want. He already let an all-pro center in Lindsay go because he couldn't pay him. There is cost for signing high tier free agents. The Packers paid that price two years ago, and in doing so lost what Cap leverage they had. Simply put, the Packers don't have the cash, period. Don't ask for things you can't pay for...

0 points
0
0
JohnnyLogan's picture

September 09, 2021 at 11:43 am

The "don't have the cash argument" is too easy. Everyone has the same amount of cash, it's how you allocate it. There are ways to restructure the current allocation to pay for a CB better than King. You obviously have to find money elsewhere and my point is CB is a crucial position. I'd rather have paid for a decent CB instead of bringing Preston Smith back. His money, plus what was paid King, Lowry and Lancaster would have done it. All three are jags, easily replaceable.

0 points
0
0
jurp's picture

September 06, 2021 at 09:48 am

Cobb will be on IR by the time the playoffs begin. He would've been a great signing as an assistant WR coach, but his contract is a luxury we could've done without.

2 points
2
0
Alberta_Packer's picture

September 06, 2021 at 10:08 am

The Draft Sharks Injury Projector estimates a 95% probability of Cobb being injured this season.

-1 points
0
1
dobber's picture

September 06, 2021 at 10:25 am

Yeah, that's a meaningful projection.

0 points
0
0
JohnnyLogan's picture

September 06, 2021 at 11:05 am

While you're on that Projector, can you find the probability of King being injured.

0 points
0
0
Oppy's picture

September 05, 2021 at 04:38 pm

I wonder how much bargaining power the Packers lost in terms of shopping Rodgers after the 2021 season due to the Packers salary cap situation in 2022.

I would think most trade partners will remind the Packers that they really need to clear Rodgers salary off the books, so don't try to play hardball.

4 points
6
2
Alberta_Packer's picture

September 05, 2021 at 05:45 pm

Ah yes - the game within the game!

4 points
4
0
dobber's picture

September 05, 2021 at 10:26 pm

"I wonder how much bargaining power the Packers lost in terms of shopping Rodgers after the 2021 season due to the Packers salary cap situation in 2022.'

As long as there's more than one bidder, they've got a shot.

Plenty of GMs out there under pressure from owners and fan bases to get something done...

6 points
6
0
Oppy's picture

September 06, 2021 at 01:51 am

Agreed, Dobber. Hopefully there are two different teams that desire and can afford to take on Rodgers' contract that enter into a bidding war. There has to a be a team that is desperate to secure Rodgers services.

I don't think that should be a problem, but you never know.

4 points
4
0
HawkPacker's picture

September 06, 2021 at 09:43 am

I have to disagree Oppy. If, and this is a big if, Roger's has a great year, there will be a lot of teams competing for his services. GB should do well with this trade if that is the case!

1 points
1
0
Leatherhead's picture

September 05, 2021 at 07:18 pm

A nice article, and I agree about our probable direction for next year. Unless we win the Super Bowl, because if we do, we’ll want to try to repeat.

If not, it’ll be Love with a very good supporting cast.

1 points
2
1
dobber's picture

September 05, 2021 at 10:24 pm

"Unless we win the Super Bowl, because if we do, we’ll want to try to repeat."

Winning the SB doesn't change their cap position, and there's not much they can do to massage it. Hypothetically every team is trying to win the SB every year...

3 points
3
0
nstewart1's picture

September 05, 2021 at 10:39 pm

I don't believe "most fans wanted a bunch of short-sighted trades and big-name free agents"; maybe short-timers, but long-time Packer fans know consistently being competitive is the way to go.

COVID and The Rogers Headcase have brought-on a significant proportion of 2022's problems.

5 points
6
1
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

September 06, 2021 at 06:51 am

I disagreed with so many comments. I replied four times and erased four more. I agreed with many more. I don't think the Packers intended as a grand strategy to go all-in for 2021: quite the opposite. This was a product of the Covid Cap and the issues with AR.

Going "all-in" is interesting. The packers certainly massaged/mangled the salary cap, but they didn't do much with their draft picks in terms of trading picks for established players.

Is going all-in the correct thing to do? Is giving your team as many bites at the apple as possible while having an elite QB the correct thing to do? My answer is that it depends on whether it works.

Wolf arguably went pretty all-in. Reggie White when signed was the third-highest paid player in the NFL. That honor today belongs to Dak Prescott at $40M per year. Wolf traded a 2nd rounder for TE Keith Jackson. He traded DE Matt LaBounty for heady FS Eugene Robinson. Wolf signed Frank Winters in Plan B, Harry Galbreath, Sean Jones, Santana Dotson, Bruce Wilkerson, and Desmond Howard. That's a lot of activity and quite a bit of it cost money.

TT signed Woodson (upper mid-tier signing worth about $11M in 2020 cap dollars and less in 2021 cap dollars), Pickett, Frank Walker, Chillar, and Peppers (worth $12.9M and $11.9M in 2020 and 2021 cap dollars).

Both TT and Wolf had a three time MVP QB. Wolf got 2 SB appearances, one win, while TT got one appearance and one win. Arguably not the biggest difference in the world. Wolf got to the playoffs in 6 of his 10 seasons and TT in 9 of his 13 seasons (69%). One can say that TT was more consistent especially given that Wolf never lost his starting QB to injury whereas injuries to AR derailed 2 of those thirteen seasons.

Personally, I think losing Holmgren in 1999 was a big factor in Wolf not doing better, and keeping MM after 2014 was a big factor in TT not doing better, but that's just me.

Edit: Couple of notes:

White played 6 seasons in GB. GB went to the playoffs in every one of those years. Wolf's teams went to the playoffs six times. Hmmm. [White was first or 2nd team All Pro in all six years he played in GB, and a pro bowler in all six years. His last season (1998) in GB he cranked out 16 sacks and 4 forced fumbles and was first team all-pro.]

Only Marino and Elway had higher compensation. That said, the cap was $34M in 1994, so that would be $24.4M in 2020 salary cap dollars. But noting that the 3rd highest paid player today (Prescott) makes $40M AAV was very persuasive, if somewhat disingenuous.

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