The Trade For Matthews Still Bugs Me

Yes, the old adage of needing to take three years to judge a draft is very, very true

I've taken three months.

Ted Thompson has made it abundantly clear, both in words and in actions, that he really likes his roster. He sees a lot more talent there than most observers, and when it comes to (most of) the starters, I would agree. When it comes to the backups, however, I start to worry, and it's for that reason that the trade up for Clay Matthews still really, really bugs me.

By my estimation the Packers, coming off a 6-10 season that saw a lot of backup players get a lot of action, have stuck with several players that showed they simply can not get the job done when called upon. Now, could these players improve? Of course they could, and that is what Thompson is counting on. The problem I have with the trade for Matthews is that it robs the roster of what would have been an infusion of new talent to push some of those backups. Would the Packers have gotten another Greg Jennings-type player? Most likely not, but they could have found players to push the likes of Aaron Rouse and Charlie Peprah in the secondary or Michael Montgomery and Alfred Malone on the defensive line.

I could understand not needing to draft extra depth if Thompson were bringing in veteran players at these positions, but his M.O. of eschewing any player over the age of 30 in free agency makes the trading away of three draft picks for Matthews all the more irksome in my mind. Guys like Kevin Carter and Vonnie Holiday can play and can be had for dirt cheap at this point. Instead, the Packers keep Michael Montgomery around? Seriously? It makes no sense, especially when you go back and watch Montgomery's snaps from last season. He is, in a word, terrible.

But no, Thompson decided, for whatever reason, that an infusion of mid-level talent was not necessary. I understand that the Anthony Smith signing is meant to add depth to what was clearly a problematic area at safety, but is that really all that's needed to guard against having Rouse or Peprah on the field again? Simply put - they can not play. Why not bring in some guys who might be able to?

Obviously, the only way the trade ends up being judged a 'win' for Thompson is if Matthews turns out to be a player. I know most observers assume he has to win the starting job this year, but I don't see that. If the kid only brings a dynamic presence to the special teams units this year, he's already an upgrade over most of the guys on those units last season. And I think Thompson and company are more than willing to let Matthews stay on the bench behind Jeremy Thompson, if Thompson is judged to be starter material during camp.

I don't mind Matthews, I just question giving up so much to get him. Normally, that kind of currency isn't spent, especially by this particular General Manager, unless the player is something special. Here's hoping...

 

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Comments (68)

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dustybricks6's picture

July 17, 2009 at 08:54 am

the "giving up so much to get him" -- we have no idea what we gave up really, in terms of value. Maybe Thompson didn't see a lot of depth in those rounds, but did see it the later rounds. Who knows? You started with it, I'll end with it: We'll know in three years.

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Ruppert's picture

July 17, 2009 at 09:07 am

Mike Montgomery, Jarrett Bush, Danny Lansanah, Charlie Peprah, Tory Humphrey...these are all guys that Thompson refuses to replace. I think we could dump them all and replace them with equal talent simply by plucking bodies off other teams' practice squads, let alone the draft.

I'm more upset with burning 2nd round picks on Brohm and Jordy Nelson when we just lost Corey Williams and our D line wasn't exactly filled with dominators the year before...

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Brian Carriveau's picture

July 17, 2009 at 09:18 am

In response to Ruppert, why would you replace guys like Bush, Lansanah, etc. with equal talent? If they're only equal, I would give the Packers the upper hand because of their knowledge of the system and the city.

And actually, the D-line was filled with dominators in '07. It was one of the biggest factors to the team's success. They were able to rush four down lineman, blitz nobody, and still get to the quarterback with guys like Kampman, KGB, Jenkins, Williams, Jolly, etc. It didn't carry over to '08, but they were still amazing in '07.

And one final point, before the draft, the Packers had nine picks. After the trade of Matthews, they had eight. Esentially, they gave up one pick. I know, the picks they had were lower, but I don't have to remind anybody here that talent can be had in later rounds.

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PackerAaron's picture

July 17, 2009 at 09:31 am

"It didn’t carry over to ‘08, but they were still amazing in ‘07." They were amazing early in the season, not so much toward the end.
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As for the first part, I hardly think brining in someone like Brace or Chung in the second round would be bringing in someone 'equal' to Peprah or Montgomery...

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Asshalo's picture

July 17, 2009 at 09:37 am

"Guys like Kevin Carter and Vonnie Holiday can play and can be had for dirt cheap at this point. Instead, the Packers keep Michael Montgomery around? Seriously? It makes no sense, especially when you go back and watch Montgomery’s snaps from last season. He is, in a word, terrible."
(applauding). What makes that all the more irksome is that MM was signed for a one year deal. It's obviously a band-aid signing. Why not pick-up an aging veteran who will performan much better

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cow42's picture

July 17, 2009 at 09:48 am

It's simple really - TT thinks Mathews is a stud. And while I don't agree with every personnel move he's made, I still trust his opinion of a player over any of our (or your) opinions.

By the way - how do we know that those old defensive ends would be dirt cheep. Maybe no one's signed them because they want too much money.

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PackerAaron's picture

July 17, 2009 at 10:10 am

cow42 - I hear you, I hear you. But you just give my opinions some time, you'll come around. ;)

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PackerAaron's picture

July 17, 2009 at 10:19 am

Oh, and the Packers have no idea how much either of those players cost. Carter's agent has spoken w/Reggie McKenzie and both sides have expressed interest, but that's it and that was months ago. No financials were discussed. The Packers have not so much as called Holiday.

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cow42's picture

July 17, 2009 at 10:40 am

give me the young guy bustin' ass to stay in the league over the old guy who's already made his fat cash any day.

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cow42's picture

July 17, 2009 at 10:48 am

in my opinion nfl teams overvalue draft picks... yes it's important to keep infusing young talent but if you think you can get a crisp dollar bill (mathews), i have no problem giving up four shinny quarters (later - round picks). it's all a crap-shoot anyhow (just take a look at the first rounds of that last couple drafts - 3/4 of those guys are just "guys") might as well try to increase your odds of getting someone special..

again - just my opinion.

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Cletis's picture

July 17, 2009 at 10:59 am

"give me the young guy bustin’ ass to stay in the league over the old guy who’s already made his fat cash any day."

One thing you can say for Montgomery - he's got a big motor and plays hard every snap. Per Bob McGinn, Montgomery ranked second on the defense last year in tackles per snap at 1 per 7.4.

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Ruppert's picture

July 17, 2009 at 11:03 am

Regarding my prior comment, I'm not suggesting they needed to replace the 2007 starting defensive linemen.

I'm upset we drafted Nelson and Brohm instead of a replacement for the departed Corey Williams, or to possibly upgrade Mike Montgomery, Alfred Malone, or frankly even Jolly or Colin Cole. In my mind, all those guys have peaked, and the peak isn't very tall.

Of course, the lack of development in those guys might be why the defensive staff got axed, too, but that's another story.

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Asshalo's picture

July 17, 2009 at 11:03 am

"give me the young guy bustin’ ass to stay in the league over the old guy who’s already made his fat cash any day."

That's so generalized it's irritating. M Montegomery is a 5th year player who's proven he's not capable being anything but a depth player (and he may be a bit undersized to be a 3-4 DE). Holliday on the other hand put up more than decent numbers as a 3-4 DE. His experience in the scheme would certainly help a young defense with no professional experience in a 3-4 (right now anythony smith is the only player with experience in a 3-4).

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Ruppert's picture

July 17, 2009 at 11:08 am

...I didn't mean that I WANT to replace guys like Peprah with equal talent. My point was that it would be easy to GET equal talent, and why not get equal talent with more upside (in my opinion) through the draft?

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Keith's picture

July 17, 2009 at 11:19 am

I totally agree with Ruppert. Just looked it up and boy was that 2008 draft a disaster. TT selected 2 WR, 2 QB, and a TE when the defense could use reinforcements and it was pretty obvious Grant was going to hold out. I didn't really pay attention to the draft last year for some reason and did not realize how much he focused on the offense early on. Makes no sense.

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Mr. Optimistic's picture

July 17, 2009 at 11:21 am

The legendary Brian Brohm is worth a 2; Matthews, who hasn't played a snap of pro ball, is worth a 2 and 3; Harrell, who hasn't played much more than that, is worth a 1; but Randy Moss was only worth a 4?

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Keith's picture

July 17, 2009 at 11:23 am

Oh, and as much as I like CM3, it would have been pretty sweet had they landed Brace and Chung. I would have particularly enjoyed watching Raji and Brace terrorize the NFC North for years to come.

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That being said, I'm not going to kill a guy when he goes for it. Hopefully TT is right about CM3.

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Keith's picture

July 17, 2009 at 11:36 am

One more thing. I really can't criticize TT for the CM3 trade/pick because, otherwise, I thought this draft was fantastic. He took who I wanted in the first round (Raji) and I think he got tremendous value in Lang and Meredith. I also liked the Johnson pick b/c I felt the offense needed the toughness he brings.

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The Matthews selection basically comes down to this: TT was going to select an OLB who can rush the QB. Would he have been better off scooping up an Everette Brown later on? Perhaps. But we really won't know for a while.

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WoodyG's picture

July 17, 2009 at 11:58 am

I've said it before. Capers drafted Raji & Matthews in round one. TT just said "OK".
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Both Holliday & Carter are still available & TC is still two weeks away.
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Montgomery has little chance to make the final 53.
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If Kampman really can't cut it at OLB, look for Matthews & J. Thompson to be on the field as starters.
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Who in their right mind brings up R. Moss's name light years later?

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PackerAaron's picture

July 17, 2009 at 12:03 pm

'Capers drafted Raji & Matthews in round one. TT just said “OK”.' - So when Thompson was at USC's Pro Day, that was just a field trip? Matthews, and Raji for that matter, are all TT.

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WoodyG's picture

July 17, 2009 at 12:14 pm

"Matthews, and Raji for that matter, are all TT."
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With a little help from his friends including Capers. You don't honestly think Capers would take the DC job & move to GB without some strong input into the direction the defense is headed? (including personnel) Face it. Neither MM or TT can really afford another losing season. (6-10 or worse) My guess is that Capers gets pretty much whatever he wants. MM & TT may even stand up when he enters the room. LOL.

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Keith's picture

July 17, 2009 at 12:14 pm

Don't know if I've said this before, but my feelings on the defense are the following:

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I think Matthews is going to be a player. Maybe not a Pro Bowler, but definitely a very solid 3-4 OLB. I have yet to read something on him that doesn't make me like him more than I already did. So I guess, like TT, I am placing a lot of faith in Matthews.

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I also agree with Aaron on Bishop. I think he could become very effective in the middle, but I disagree that it will be at Hawk's expense. I believe (hope? pray?) that Hawk will come into camp leaner and meaner and show us why he was drafted so high.

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Since WoodyG brought up Kampman, I'll throw in my two cents on him. I think TT should trade him. I could not believe how many Packers fans were annoyed with the switch to the 3-4 because of how it would affect Kampman. Come on people, it's not like we're moving Reggie White or Michael Strahan to OLB. I like Kampman and he has been a great Packer, but I wouldn't let him stand in the way of a scheme change. And like I said, he is a very good DE, so I am sure a team would love to have him. This is why I thought he should have been dealt for picks. Yes, many have made the Jason Taylor analogy, but I'm sorry, he is no Jason Taylor. I honestly think KGB would have had a better shot at filling that Taylor role.

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WoodyG's picture

July 17, 2009 at 12:20 pm

Besides, Aaron, you know very well that TT is a road warrior. He's probably been on every campus in the country scouting potential draft picks.
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Being at USC's Pro Day is a moot point. (It was probably Caper's idea anyway)

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Asshalo's picture

July 17, 2009 at 12:25 pm

"Just looked it up and boy was that 2008 draft a disaster."
Couldn't agree more Keith. Had we drafted more defensive players that really would have paid off this year.

I also agree with trading Kampmann. Get another OLB or a DE.

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JerseyAl's picture

July 17, 2009 at 12:26 pm

Aaron,
Too many hypotheticals to be upset over the trade. We don't know what we would have gotten instead of Matthews. If we had traded players off our roster, maybe then you would have more to go on, but we still don't know what Matthews will be. If he becomes just near-Pro Bowl quality, then we did well.

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PackerAaron's picture

July 17, 2009 at 12:28 pm

Al - that's why I used the term 'bugs me' rather than 'pisses me off'. Not upset at all.

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PackerAaron's picture

July 17, 2009 at 12:35 pm

As for 'The 2008 draft was a disaster' - people continue to think drafts are about addressing immediate concerns. That is simply not the case, esp after the 1st round. If Pat Lee becomes a player, Finley reaches even some of his potential,Thompson becomes a starter this year, not to mention Nelson and Sitton, 2008 turns into a great draft.
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Look, I didn't post this because I thought the 2009 draft was horrible - I'm just annoyed by the trade for Matthews - hopefully his play makes my concern unfounded. But what I said at the top is true - let's give it a few years before we call a whole class 'horrible'.

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Chicago Hooligan's picture

July 17, 2009 at 12:38 pm

Mr. Optimistic, you forgot that Tony Gonzalez also wasn't worth a 2.

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Mr. Optimistic's picture

July 17, 2009 at 12:42 pm

Who in their right mind brings up Moss? The Moss fiasco a prime example of how draft picks have been overvalued, and it may also point to how Matthews is overvalued as well.

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WoodyG's picture

July 17, 2009 at 12:49 pm

2008 was just last year. How can it possibly be a disaster only 15 months later ? You could possibly see 5 starters & your back-up QB for years come out of the 2008 draft. The only player that didn't make the 2008 roster has a good chance to replace Martin in 2009. (Swain)
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I already think it was a good draft. We'll see if it will become a great draft.

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Keith's picture

July 17, 2009 at 01:10 pm

Disaster may have been a bit strong since I cannot quibble with the Lee and Sitton picks. I've also grown quite fond of Finley and was high on Brohm.

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HOWEVER, I did not like the Nelson pick then and I do not like it now. Unless this guy becomes a Pro Bowler, I think it was unnecessary. They already had Jennings, Driver, and Jones, at WR and you cannot tell me that Jordy Nelson was rated that much higher than any other player at any other position that TT just HAD TO take him. In the second round there should still be quality talent at positions of need. But, then again, I am a huge James Jones guy, so take this opinion for what its worth.

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My overall issue with the 2008 draft is the disparity between offensive and defensive positions. Did we really need 3 more WR? 2 QB? All I'm saying is the D could have used reinforcements and TT loaded up on offense. The funny thing is, he passed on Forte, whose pass catching ability and toughness inside would have been a welcome addition to the running game. Not to mention they could have told Grant to hit the bricks.

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PackerAaron's picture

July 17, 2009 at 01:15 pm

So when Driver leaves and Jones is hurt again will Nelson still be a bad pick? ;)

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Ron La Canne's picture

July 17, 2009 at 01:19 pm

TT's draft style is to keep virtually every daft pick from the current year and over a period of time release his draft picks from earlier years. The numbers that make the roster should not create the impression that any particular year is a good draft year. The standard should be who is left and is starting and is playing at an acceptable level after three years. Those who are left then are the indicator of success.

Mathews seems to be a "crap shoot pick" to me. He really doesn't have a long-term performance record to be sure of his ability. The USC defense always looks great at the Collesium and PAC 10 fields. No one will know until he is playing in real games. All the buzz eminating from the OTA's is just so much PR crap. The first preseason game is when we will start to see what is there.

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Keith's picture

July 17, 2009 at 01:19 pm

You know what, you're right. I take back my vote of confidence in the '09 draft. We should have taken Crabtree over Raji. You know, just in case Jordy Nelson decides to retire to work on his family farm full time. TT should have then traded up to beat the Giants to Nicks, just in case Crabtree's injury hasn't healed correctly. You can never have too many WRs ;)

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L.A.'s picture

July 17, 2009 at 01:30 pm

Aaron, I was surprised by two things:

* I had actually "called that" possible trade an hour earlier, but the trade value chart I was looking at had us only giving up a second and a third. I thought the price was really, really high.

* I was kind of shocked that Matthews was the pick, since there were other hybrid 3-4 outside linebackers available (Everette Brown, in particular, was a guy the Packers had been rumored to take with their first rounder).

In essence, we paid a high price for a guy at a position that still had a lot of depth at that point in the draft. Everette Brown could have been taken with the Packers second rounder with no trade whatsoever.

So, just as Aaron Rodgers had Alex Smith to compare himself to over the years, so Matthews will have Brown as "the price the Packers paid", as well as a couple other players. I hope the best for Matthews, but I think Thompson had stars in his eyes for the last name.

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Asshalo's picture

July 17, 2009 at 01:39 pm

Touche, disaster is definitely an overstatement. However, I wasn't really alluding to having an immediate impact-- simply drafting positions not only we didn't need, but we were pretty deep at. It's not necesarily the nelson pick so much as the amount of offense picked in general. 2 out of your first 3 and neither were on the offensive line. Although I have to give thompson credit for Nelson and Finley. Both seem to have shots at promising careers. Who would have thought Brohm would have been a bust (there's still time for him though). But were there equally talented players at positions we needed more? Probably.
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I honestly think Flynn and Swain would not have been drafted had we not taken them. Would they have signed with us? Who knows. Could we have signed an undrafted free agent at both positions with equal potential-- probably.
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Aaron, although Nelson has proved to be a great pick, I don't necesarily agree with the reasoning that driver is going to be gone soon and Jones is injury prone. You're talking about a no. 3 receiver, as opposed to having much more pressing needs (like the defensive line). By no means could you blame that draft for the shortcomings of the 2008 season, but you can certainly point to it when discussing depth issues at certain positions

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mchromes's picture

July 17, 2009 at 02:07 pm

I was ok with the trade for Matthews. Unless you were really high on Everette Brown, there wasn't a quality pass rushing prospect available at pick 9 in the second round.

Going to the 3rd round picks, think about where GB needed to add talent. You'd probably agree with me that it would OL and DL. Look at the players taken in the 3rd round from pick 8-28. One DT was taken, Roy Miller, and two guards were taken. Apparently, most NFL teams did not like the options in the trenches at that point in the draft. TT referred to groups of players (2nd round wrs) before the '08 draft. There wasn't a 3rd round group this year

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PackerAaron's picture

July 17, 2009 at 02:08 pm

re: Taking players where they the Packers are already deep
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Has anyone else ever noticed how many 3 and 4 receiver sets McCarthy runs? There's a reason the Packers need to be so deep at WR and it's the main reason Nelson was such a good pick. Am I the only one who remembers the Corey Bradford days?

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mchromes's picture

July 17, 2009 at 02:30 pm

There is one other reason I am fine with the Matthews trade. Answer this, how many rookies can make this roster this year? It sounds like the guys we took in the 6th round are probably going to be P-squad, non-active guys..... We already had depth at most of the postions, especially on D. We only really need 6 guys on the DL now that we are a 3-4 (pikett, jenkins, rajii, Monty, Harrel, Jolly), 8 nfl calibeer LBs(Hawk, Barnett, Thomp, Clay, Popps, Chillar, Bishop, Kamp) 5-6 cbs (Harris, Wood, Williams, Lee, Blackmon, Bush (special teams asset), and 4 S (Rouse, Bigby, Collins, Smith). I just don't see the need for additional depth.

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Rainman's picture

July 17, 2009 at 02:39 pm

If TT really thinks that Matthews is gonna be a homerun then I have no problem with that trade. That being said I agrre with you that we have many areas on both sides of the ball that we lack depth and over the course of a 16 game schedule that came haunt you.
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Aaron, At the risk of poking the bear; how can you argue for getting more depth but be against getting an experienced backup QB.
"He sees a lot more talent there than most observers, and when it comes to (most of) the starters, I would agree. When it comes to the backups, however, I start to worry"
Could that not also apply to the QB position?

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Sweetcorn's picture

July 17, 2009 at 02:46 pm

I LOVED the Jordy Nelson pick. I felt he was one of the best WRs in that draft. TT picked BPA and that's fine. That what you're supposed to do in the early on in the draft.

In this years draft Matthews was a big surprise. I was hoping to get Clint Sintim with our 2nd round pick and use our 3rd round picks to get good players. I was looking at Coffee and Coffman as such examples.

I have seen videos of Matthews, he is a big, strong bloke and moves extremely well which is what you need in a 3-4 linebacker. We needed a 3-4 linebacker and it was essential we addressed that through the draft. Thompson did just that and so we should sit back and trust he made the right decision. I have a gut feeling he has. Matthews has the dedication and work ethic to succeed at the highest level and he will go one to prove everybody wrong.

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Turophile's picture

July 17, 2009 at 02:50 pm

So we gave up two 3rd rounders to move up from #41 to #26. The first 5 guys taken from #73 on, were Derek Cox (CB), Glenn Coffee(RB), Rob Brewster (G), DeAndre Levy (OLB), Antoine Caldwell (C).

The first five from pick #83 on were WRs Brandon Tate, Mike Wallace, Ramses Barden and Patrick Turner. CB Asher Allen rounds out that five.

No-one there jumps out at me. Allen is good but too small, Caldwell might be somebody, but rather than choose these guys I'm all for taking a chance on getting a difference-maker.
Kudos to Ted for completing that deal,
Making that trade took cojones of steel.

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PackerAaron's picture

July 17, 2009 at 02:58 pm

mchromes- if you're cool with the likes of Montgomery and Rouse, cool. I'm not.
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Rainman - I'm giving Flynn and Brohm more than one training camp, and in Flynn's case more than 4 meaningful snaps, before declaring they will never get any better. In the case of Rouse, Montgomery, Peprah, etc - I've seen all I need to see. Not to open that can of worms, but someone like Gus Ferotte is not getting better....

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Rainman's picture

July 17, 2009 at 03:12 pm

Turophile- I'm ok with the pick as well, but if any of those names had jumped out at you they would have been earlier pick. I'm sure at the time Drivers name didn't jump out at anyone.
- to paraphrase Babe, you gotta swing big to hit big. There was a price paid, but sometimes a GM has to take a chance. Let's hope TT hit his homerun.

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mchromes's picture

July 17, 2009 at 03:18 pm

Turophile-----"mchromes- if you’re cool with the likes of Montgomery and Rouse, cool. I’m not."

I'm cool with Rouse and Monty being backups. FYI, at this time last year, the vast majority of fans wanted Rouse to start over Collins because Collins had an off year in 07 and Rouse had like 3-4 ints. Be patient, it is his 3rd year.

Monty might not be the best, but he is like our 3rd option at DE. I'm fine with that. I would put any money on Monty outplaying all the DL drafted between pick 9 of the 3rd and the end of the round this year

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Asshalo's picture

July 17, 2009 at 03:41 pm

Re: Am I the only one who remembers the Corey Bradford days?
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I'm not saying the Nelson pick was bad-- just the amount of offense picked in general. I disagree that we had the depth last year (or this year) on the D-line. Harrell goes down and suddenly we're relying on an undersized 3-4 DE in Montegomery. I don't understand how you can say drafting for depth is a slight problem this year, but not last.

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GoTime's picture

July 17, 2009 at 04:31 pm

Let's not forget they got Jamon Meridith in that trade too... slid one pick up, one pick back, and gave up one pick completely. Doesn't seem so bad when you consider the pick we got back.

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PackersRS's picture

July 17, 2009 at 04:45 pm

Like GoTime said. We got Meredith out of that trade, too. Pretty sweet to me to get the future OLB and the future LT.
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For those who want to trade Kampman, he's the 3rd best sacker since 2005. Behind Ware (1st) and Allen (2nd). CAR wanted 2 1sts and more for Peppers. I guess if someone offered 3 1sts and some 2nds, it'll be okay...

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TheMills's picture

July 17, 2009 at 08:10 pm

I'm sick and tired of people asking for Holiday and Carter. If they're so great, why are they still unemployed?

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Keith's picture

July 17, 2009 at 09:18 pm

PackersRS - I'm sorry, but Kampman is just not the same kind of player as Ware, Allen, or Peppers. IMO, if I were a DC, I wouldn't worry about doubling him the same way I would be worried about Ware or Peppers. I could be wrong, but I just don't think he receives the same kind of attention that other elite DEs see. You saw the '07 NFCC, he just isn't on the same talent level as guys like Strahan, Umenyiora, Tuck, or even Kiwanuka. I could name others that I think are more dangerous pass rushers too. Dwight Freeney comes to mind.

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And I'm not saying Kampman is worthless. He is a very, very good football player. Just saying he isn't the kind of player you build the defense around.

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Keith's picture

July 17, 2009 at 09:32 pm

And I am still with Asshalo. The Nelson pick itself wasn't a "bad" one, per se, it was more with selecting so much offense when the offense was pretty much set. Ironically, the OLine was the part of the offense that needed fresh recruits the most and the only reinforcement he took was Sitton.

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Not to harp on this, but look at teams like the Giants, Steelers, and Pats. They always seem to be able to identify players that they can bring in to fit into their system. But as I type this, I am thinking of how the Giants draft DEs like they are going out of style, which is a perfect analogy to why the Packers selected Jordy. The Giants D is built around their rush and rotate DEs accordingly, same way the Packers offense involves a lot of multiple WR sets. Ok, fine... Aaron wins this round. But I still say that he did a poor job addressing the defensive depth in the '08 draft.

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Having come back to this issue a few times today, I think it is safe to say that the key player in the '08 draft was Brohm. He's the one who could potentially screw this draft up for TT. Aaron's argument for taking Nelson makes sense, so you can understand that selection. I really like Finley and think he will be a dangerous weapon on offense as soon as this season, so I actually like taking the TE in rd 3. Can't argue with Lee and Sitton. As for Swain and Flynn, maybe you could have gone defense there, but at such a late spot in the draft, maybe you can try to catch lightning in a bottle.

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Now, turning to Brohm. I really liked him in college and could understand why TT scooped him up in the 2nd round. I'm sure the Pack were VERY confident in AR, otherwise they wouldn't have taken such a hard stance against Favre, eventually trading him to NY. I think the idea was to grab Brohm, once thought to be one of the most NFL ready QBs in college, let him back-up AR for a few seasons, then deal him ala Matt Hasselbeck for a decent pick. IMO, Matt Flynn is the guy who was picked to be AR's Doug Pederson/Craig Nall. And you know what? I can't fault TT. Brohm was a damn good QB in college and who could have known he would struggle so mightily in the pros. However, like Aaron, I am not willing to give up on him just yet.

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Now, with ALL that said, this team was coming off hosting a NFCC game. Was it wise to neglect a defense in obvious need of reinforcements. I mean, Aaron even posted his reservations about the defense at the time. The obvious counter is that TT anticipated a rough '08 due to a harder schedule and a QB who, despite their being very confident in him, was still taking his first turn around the league. So perhaps TT's '08 draft will be looked at as brilliant forward thinking. Ok, now I am arguing with myself. What does everyone else think?

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PackersRS's picture

July 18, 2009 at 05:23 pm

Keith, you can argue about Kampman's physical skills, but you can't argue about his production.
Sacks since 2005:
Ware - 53,5
Allen - 48,5
Kampman - 43,5
Abraham - 41
Peppers - 40,5
Taylor - 40
Mathis - 39,5
Merriman - 39,5
Burgess - 38,5
Osi - 33,5
Freeney - 30,5
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And about not doubling him, are you kidding me? Except for KGB in what? 2 good years? We only had Kampman in there. There was noone other than him to double. The LBs aren't good at blitzing, neither are the DTs. He's doubled all the time. And even then he produces. He don't get hurt as others, and is a much better run stopper than others...

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PackersRS's picture

July 18, 2009 at 05:29 pm

And I did not care for the 2008 draft AT ALL. I support TT, but we had much more pressing needs. If he had picked a OL or a DL sooner in that draft we wouldn't be discussing if the packers could reach the playoffs, as much as if the packers would win it all. Getting Brohm was a bad move. It could pay dividends 5 years from now, but who wants to wait 5 years??? Finley has great physical tools, but has zero awareness of the game. Can't catch a ball over the shoulder. Jordy will never be a #1 receiver. Can be a terrific #2. The other picks were fine, TT's best at the second day. But hey, noone gets it right all the time, and there's no use crying over spilled milk...

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PackerAaron's picture

July 19, 2009 at 07:42 pm

Ah yes, the great 'Kampman is double teamed all the time' myth. The tape simply does not support this...

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Keith's picture

July 20, 2009 at 09:30 am

Thank you Aaron.

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Re: Finley - just have to defend my man Finely. Sigmund Bloom of Draftguys.com raved about his catch radius on The Audible podcast with Cecil Lammey. Don't judge Finley off of one NFL season.

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PackersRS's picture

July 20, 2009 at 06:37 pm

Saying he can't catch an over the shoulder pass doesn't mean he won't be good. It means he's still a kid and shouldn't have left college so early. And he's still a kid, btw. Don't expect a big improvement from him in this season. I doubt he'll be a reliable receiver now that he's one year older, after being a liability last year.
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And Aaron's opinion on Kampman is irrelevant. He hates him. Even though he says otherwise. http://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/kampman-not-as-good-as-advertised
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And I'm sorry, Aaron. It's just a coincidence that everytime you make a very well-written post I disagree with you and nagg you.

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Keith's picture

July 20, 2009 at 09:54 pm

PackerRS, not really sure how you can say Aaron hates Kampman. Plus, I can play this silly game too: you're opinion is irrelevant because there is clearly a bromance brewing between you and Kampman.

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It's also convenient to set arbitrary timelines and say: "Hey! Look at what Kampman has done during this timeframe! He is so much more awesomer than these other Pro Bowl players." Well, that's not how I roll. I actually like to dig deeper. Football is not baseball. Stats are nice, but stats do not tell the entire story in this glorious sport.

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In both of Kampman's double digit sack seasons ('06 & '07) he had the benefit of having Jenkins and KGB lining up at the other DE position. I would also like to note the absurdity of this comment: "And about not doubling him, are you kidding me? Except for KGB in what? 2 good years? We only had Kampman in there. There was noone other than him to double." Uh, yeah, those 2 good years amount to half the years in your arbitrary Kampman sack timeframe! I would also submit that KGB was a threat for three of those good years - '05, '06, & '07.

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But what happened last year with KGB released and Jenkins injured? He had 4 sacks in the first 5 games with Jenkins healthy. He had 5.5 in the remaining ELEVEN (11) games. Now, Aaron has said that the tape does not support the notion that Kampman gets doubled, however, I would even give you the benefit of the doubt and agree that logic would dictate that Kampman would be the dude getting doubled on a defense depleted by injuries. Well, my question is this: what happened to his production in the latter 2/3's of the season?

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Ultimately, you're Don Quixote trying to vanquish a windmill here. No one is saying Kampman sucks because he doesn't suck. He is a VERY good football player and has been VERY productive for the Pack. The point is that he is not a gamebreaker; thus, he is not a player that I would be build a defense around or worry about appeasing by not changing the scheme. He is not LT, he is not Reggie White, he is not Michael Strahan, he is not Shawne Merriman. Last year showed you that he is not capable of carrying a defense. And there is nothing wrong with that and nothing for Kampman to be ashamed of. Again, he is a very very good player. No one is disputing this. Let's just not pretend that he is a gamebreaker in the Merriman, Ware, or Peppers mold.

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Keith's picture

July 20, 2009 at 10:09 pm

Last few points on Kampman:

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1) We may be trying to fit a round peg into a square hole. Obviously we have no idea how this will turn out, but I think there was a strong argument for dealing him to a 4-3 team and acquiring some extra picks to help stockpile players that will fit the new defense.

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2) He is entering the last year of his contract and will probably command a decent chunk of change on the open market next offseason. I seriously doubt the Pack resigns him unless he really excels at OLB. However, the scarier question is what if he is terrible? What happens if he gets benched? Will Kampman be a team player in a year that he is playing for a new contract? A situation like this could get real ugly real fast. I expect this team to be challenging for the division; the last thing they need is the distraction of Aaron Kampman whining about both his new position and his contract status.

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Obviously these are both hypotheticals and he could very well pull a Jason Taylor. But, as you have done a good job of pointing out, Kampman is a very good football player and I am sure that there would have been more than a few 4-3 teams out there who would have offered a pick or two to secure his services.

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Keith's picture

July 20, 2009 at 11:20 pm

Ok, one more comment, but re: Finley. Saying he can't catch an over-the-shoulder catch is flat out wrong if you're basing your opinion on that one play where he stupidly ran his mouth to the media following the game. Like I said, he is said to have a large catch radius and is noted for his athleticism. I might be wrong, but I think this means he could make an over-the-shoulder catch. Further, he made a pretty darn impressive TD catch in week 17. I'm not expecting Pro Bowl or anything this year, but I do expect a nice step forward.

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Basically, if you think he left college too early then say so. Don't say "he can't make an over the shoulder catch." I would also like to add that I'm glad he left early. His immaturity and leaving early probably caused him to fall to the 3rd round, where the Pack scooped him up. With his talent, if/when he matures he will be a solid TE.

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PackerAaron's picture

July 21, 2009 at 04:30 am

Packerrs - "First, I’m going to begin by saying that I’m an Aaron Kampman fan. He’s a great story, a great man, and a great football player."
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I wrote that because I hate him?

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PackersRS's picture

July 21, 2009 at 02:03 pm

Okay. Like I said, Kampman isn't athletically gifted as others. But saying he was only good with KGB and Jenkins? What about the Williams brothers in MN? What about Greg Ellis? What about Shawn Phillips? What about Kris Jenkins in Carolina? He faced the same circumstances than other pass rushers in the last 4 years (4 years is a good spam because it's the year DeMarcus Ware started playing. And it's a long enough time spam), and he has the production to show. Saying he doens't perform late is BS. The game is composed of 4 quarters, not just the final one. If YOU think he's not that good then that's an opinion, but you need to prove it better. My opinion is that he's the 3rd best sacker in the league, and I base that with stats. Stats from 4 whole seasons, not quarters, or formations, or excluding games that he was injured, because he was never injured. Unlike Merriman, Osi, Freeney... And yeah, I have a bromance with him. He doesn't know, but we do.
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About Finley, I've seen him miss an over the shoulder catch. A VERY IMPORTANT ONE. I haven't seen him catch one. Like I said, that doesn't mean he can't learn how to catch one. It has nothing to do with hands. It has to do with experience.
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FYI, I'm one of those who didn't want Gonzo (not for the price). Who didn't want Pettitgrew, because I thouhgt Finley would develop into a STUD. Still think that. But he needs to prove he's ready, not just twitt so. Haven't seen one highlight of him in OTAs...
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Aaron, I think we had that discussion. Saying that you like him so that you can trash him is just a way to soften the blow. But I think deep down you know how good he really is... BTW, please don't go making a post about Jennings flaws and how he's not a premier receiver ;)...

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PackersRS's picture

July 21, 2009 at 02:07 pm

And I don't think I can tell you how to run your business, neither I think I could do a better job... If I didn't like your opinions or your blog, I wouldn't keep coming back to read it, would I?

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Keith's picture

July 21, 2009 at 04:36 pm

Umm, wow. I think I need to break this post down the same way Jaworski breaks down film:

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<i>Okay. Like I said, Kampman isn’t athletically gifted as others. But saying he was only good with KGB and Jenkins? What about the Williams brothers in MN? What about Greg Ellis? What about Shawn Phillips? What about Kris Jenkins in Carolina?</i>

What about them? I am trying to figure out what your counter argument is here.

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<i>Saying he doens’t perform late is BS.</i>

I never said such a thing.

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<i>The game is composed of 4 quarters, not just the final one. If YOU think he’s not that good then that’s an opinion, but you need to prove it better. My opinion is that he’s the 3rd best sacker in the league, and I base that with stats. Stats from 4 whole seasons, not quarters, or formations, or excluding games that he was injured, because he was never injured.</i>

For some reason you think I based my analysis on only parts of games. Go back and re-read my posts, I never discuss Kampman's production in parts of games; rather, I broke down his production over the course of the '08 season and tried to provide an explanation for why his production fell off. As for me having to do a better job proving my opinion, allow me to break down how this discussion has gone to help you follow it better:
1) I make a statement that Kampman is a very solid, if unspectacular, NFL player and that I would not build a defense around him because he is not that caliber of player.
2) You counter by saying he is very productive, citing his sacks over the last 4 years, and claim that he has performed this well despite being consistently double-teamed.
3) Aaron comments that your statement about Kampman being consistently doubled is a common fan myth.

Now, based on this discussion of Kampman's production and whether or not he actually gets doubled, I went back and looked at his game logs. Kampman was most productive when both Jenkins and KGB were playing alongside him ('06 &amp; '07). I also pointed out that he had 4 sacks in the first 5 games of the 2008 season while Jenkins was healthy. Then, once Jenkins went out for the year, he only had 5.5 sacks in the remaining 11 games. So what was my point? There was a dispute as to whether Kampman gets doubled consistently. However, I conceded that with Jenkins out teams most likely did double Kampman. With this assumption established, we saw Kampman's production decrease once he began to get double teamed. This basically kills your argument that Kampman is consistently doubled because if Kampman has always been consistently doubled then you would not have seen such a stark drop in his production once Jenkins left the lineup.

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I would like to make a quick comment on stats. In the game of football stats can be misleading. Brett Favre owns virtually every single passing record that exists. Does this mean he is the greatest QB of all time? No, it does not, and that is coming from someone who worships Brett Favre. There are just too many variables in football. Sure, stats are a quick and dirty way of compuling a quick list of the best pass rushers around, but you really need context to help shed some more light on the counting stats. Further, you say that I didn't use stats to prove my point, but I actually did... I just didn't spell it out for you. In the first five games of the season in '08 Kampman was sacking QBs at a .9 sacks per game rate... almost a sack per game. But for the rest of the year that average dropped to .5 sacks per game. Now, this is still a good rate, but bear in mind, that 4.5 of those 5.5 sacks in the latter 11 games came in two games. So there were TEN (10) games where Kampman failed to register a sack. I'm sorry, but that does not indicate a dominant player to me. So there are some stats for you to go along with some context. For the record, Peppers went sackless in 6 games... Ware: TWO(2)!

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Like I said above, in the end, this is kind of a pointless discussion because I've never said that Kampman sucks, just that he isn't as good as some of my fellow Packer fans think he is. He has been a joy to root for and is by all accounts a very solid all around DE. I am glad he has been a Packer these last few seasons, but just because he is a Packer doesn't mean I am required to hype him up to be more than what he is. Again, what he is is pretty darn good anyway.

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Keith's picture

July 21, 2009 at 04:51 pm

<i>About Finley, I’ve seen him miss an over the shoulder catch. A VERY IMPORTANT ONE. I haven’t seen him catch one. Like I said, that doesn’t mean he can’t learn how to catch one. It has nothing to do with hands. It has to do with experience.</i>

Wow dude, really? You're going to say he can't make an over the shoulder catch because you saw him miss ONE!? Seriously!? Come on now.

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<i>But he needs to prove he’s ready, not just twitt so. Haven’t seen one highlight of him in OTAs…</i>

Again, COME ON. Don't just fall back on BS ad hominem talking points. You're better than that. Of course he has to prove himself. No one in this thread anointed him the second coming, no less the starter.

<i>Saying that you like him so that you can trash him is just a way to soften the blow. But I think deep down you know how good he really is.</i>

I know this was directed at Aaron, but, speaking for myself... yes, I do know how good he really is and have noted as much. Critiquing a player does not equal trashing him. I've noted how many 4-3 teams would have desired him had he gone on the block and that I would have expected a nice package of picks for him. It's not exactly trashing a player when you expect to land a bounty for him in a trade.

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PackersRS's picture

July 21, 2009 at 05:32 pm

First off, the formation point was for Alex, who implied he only sacked the qb when we were in nickel...
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If Kampman was sackless for so many games, how come he has more sacks than everyone in the league for the past 4 years except Ware and Allen? Sacks per game is not a good indication IMO, because players miss games! Yes, some pass rushers have more sacks per game than him, but they get more injuries than him! So in the end, he is more productive than them.
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The BF comparison can't be made. Brent played more seasons than a lot of QBs. From 93 to 99 he was the best QB in the league.
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And you're both right. He's not doubled ALL THE TIME. I used that because you said he doesn't receive the kind of attention that others do, and THAT'S BS!
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You said that when KGB and Jenkins weren't there, his production dropped. Of course, every DE suffers the same. Burgess was once the sack leader, when Warren Sapp was still there and were a force to be reckon. If the Cowboys didn't have Greg Ellis playing so well for all those years, would DeMarcus Ware have the same numbers?
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I don't know how he'll fare next season, playing OLB for the first time. If I had to guess, I'd say he will thrive, but that's just an expectation based on Dom Capers, Kevin Greene, his ability and other DEs excelling at the transition.
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The whole discussion is I say he's elite, you guys say he's very good. Of course noone would say he's bad, noone's that crazy. I try to show that, in the end, he was better in a more consistant basis. Maybe he's not as "clutch" as others (and even then I disagree), but he's better overall.
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And about Finley, I'M NOT BETTER THAN THAT! I saw him miss a very important play. I didn't see him make ANY important one. So he's bad IMO. But then again, it seems like you're not arguing with me, and rather with Sigmund Bloom. I haven't seen him or anyone talk about Finley's catch radius, actually, I haven't even heard that term! And I'm not talking about him saying postgame nonsenses. What I was reffering to was him at twitter acting like he was a playmaker, which he's not yet. (So I was not arguing with you, but rather with him...)

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Keith's picture

July 21, 2009 at 06:22 pm

Here's a tip about stats: rate stats are generally better indicators of a player's abilities than counting stats. This is true for most sports. So if you're basing your argument over total production then yes, Kampman is more productive. However, looking at rate stats like sacks per game are a better indication of a player's dominance or how elite he is. And yes, sacks per game is a better way of determining who is a better player BECAUSE players miss games. Don't confuse elite with consistent.

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We'll have to just stop arguing over the double team issue. Aaron watches more Packer tape than anyone I know, so I'm going to take his word for it over yours, no offense.

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As for Ware, you know my answer would be yes because Ware is the one defenses account for, not Ellis. This goes back to the issue of double teaming, which neither of us have actual proof or facts to back up our assertions, so let's move on.

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I will agree that he is more consistent than most of the players discussed, but again, do not confuse consistence with dominance. He is not a game changing player. Guys like Ware can take over a game and completely disrupt an offense. Kampman is not that kind of player. I'm sorry, but a guy who doesn't register a sack in 10 out of 16 games just isn't an elite player.

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Back to Finley: I don't mean to sound crass, but it's stupid to form an opinion on a player because of one play, good or bad. It's also not advised to form an opinion based on one season, especially his rookie season. I bring up Bloom because I respect his opinion on football prospects immensely, and while he doesn't think Finley will become the next Tony Gonzalez, he does like Finley's skills and thinks he can be a starter in this league. And to be honest, I like his confidence on Twitter. It's important to keep a positive mental outlook. There is no reason to be down on yourself after struggling as a rookie in the NFL in a complex offense.

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Keith's picture

July 21, 2009 at 06:25 pm

Ok, I can't help myself.

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<i>And you’re both right. He’s not doubled ALL THE TIME. I used that because you said he doesn’t receive the kind of attention that others do, and THAT’S BS!</i>

Prove it. I know this is kind of a copout by me because Aaron has already weighed in on this and I am piggy-backing off of his research, but if you feel so strongly about this then you should be able to provide evidence to support your claim.

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Come to think of it, I did provide evidence. With Jenkins out of the lineup and KGB released, Kampman was pretty much the only threat on the DLine last season. I would imagine that he saw more double teams from game 6 onward. From that point forward his production slipped considerably. My question to you is this: If he has consistently received the bulk of the attention of opposing offenses, why did he struggle so much once Jenkins went down? Shouldn't he be used to dealing with that extra attention?

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PackersRS's picture

July 21, 2009 at 11:15 pm

First off: I don't take offense for saying Aaron watches more games or know more about fundamentals than me. If I knew that much I would be writing a blog or working for a newspaper, eh? (Of course, there are people that know a lot and don't do it because they don't have the interest, nor the time. As you can see from my regular comments, not the case)
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Last about Finley. It is what it is. Until proven otherwise, he's not a good TE. All he has is potential. He needs to live up. And if it's stupid to form an opinion about him in one season, where are you getting your opinion from anyway??? And let's not try to make me into a Finley hater (wow, Finley hater...), I've said that I supported him when people wanted to bring other guys. Unlike others who try to trade our best players... ;)
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My answer to that question is: He shouldn't. He struggled because he can't overcome consistent double team. Neither can Peppers, or Osi, or Freeney, or Merrimann... Maybe Ware can. And Allen can. He delivered when he was at KC...
But the thing is, there's no Reggie White in the league. There's no Deacon Jones. There's not even a Strahan. The closest to Strahan are Ware and Allen. Merriman would be very good, if he hadn't spent an entire year injuried, thus costing his team any chance they had in the SB run. And now that he's back, LT is in the downhill... (You see what I mean when I say a player that can't stay healthy is no good?)
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This whole discussion is getting way too long, and probably annoying to most people but it seems that neither of us can let it go. At least you recognize that he's one of the most productive guys out there. You know what? I'm going to agree with you. He can't take a game for himself. But I still prefer a guy that's an B+ all the time than a A+ D guy, and would kill me to have this guy traded to another team.

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