The Time for the Packers To Sign Davante Adams to an Extension Is Now
By GilMartin
The 2021 season has been described as “The Last Dance” for the Green Bay Packers. That is largely due to the possible departure of quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the team’s overall salary cap crunch heading into 2022.
Another big issue facing the Packers this coming offseason is that All Pro wide receiver Davante Adams’ contract is up and he is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in March.
The Packers organization was negotiating with Adams during last offseason to try to sign the former Fresno State star to a contract extension, but the two sides could not come to an agreement before this season got under way.
There are multiple issues that need to be overcome. The big one is that Adams wants to be the highest paid receiver in the league and that’s an honor he has earned, especially over the last two seasons.
The two sides were unable to agree on what standard the highest paid receiver would be judged on. De’Andre Hopkins’ contract extension complicated matters as the Packers looked at the overall average of his entire contract while Adams’ agent focused solely on the average money earned as part of the extension. That discrepancy prevented the two sides from coming to an agreement before this season got started.
Another potential issue complicating negotiations is the future of Rodgers. Adams has outstanding chemistry with his quarterback and the two of them often communicate with a look or a small gesture at the line of scrimmage. When plays break down and they need to improvise, Adams and Rodgers are almost always on the same page and can make something out of nothing.
If Rodgers re-signs with the Packers for 2022, that will inspire Adams to remain in Green Bay, although it would also use up more cap space from an already strapped Packers team which would require Brian Gutekunst, Russ Ball and company to do some creative accounting.
If Rodgers leaves Green Bay after this season, Adams may want to follow his quarterback to whichever team he heads to. Rodgers’ departure would give the Packers more cap space to sign Adams, but it would likely give Adams one less reason to want to stay in Titletown.
Of course, if Jordan Love is the Packers starting quarterback in 2022, having an elite receiver like Adams to lean on would be a big help to his development, much like Sterling Sharpe was for a young Brett Favre as he learned Mike Holmgren’s offense in his first few seasons in Green Bay.
Adams is playing at a very high level and is presently among the top receivers in the NFL if not the best. Through five games, Adams leads the league in receptions with 42 which puts him on pace for nearly 143 catches for a 17-game season. He is also first in the league in receiving yards with 579. That puts him on pace for 1,969 yards over a 17-game season.
As Matt LaFleur said after the win over the Bengals, “There’s a reason he’s got that 99 rating,” referring to his ranking in Madden.
Rodgers was so impressed by his top receiver’s performance in Cincinnati when he set a career-high with 206 receiving yards on 11 catches.
“He’s just so talented,” Rodgers explained. “Even when you know I’m probably going to him, he still finds a way to get open and makes a big catch and breaks a tackle. The guy is a special player.”
Adams will turn 29 in December. Giving him a multi-year deal will obviously take him into his mid-30s when most NFL receivers begin to slow down and show diminishing productivity. But Adams is less likely to see his numbers fall off dramatically than his peers. His game is less predicated on pure speed than it is on precise route running, body control and the ability to disguise his patterns off the snap of the ball that gives him a quick advantage on opposing defensive backs who have trouble figuring out where he’s going to go.
The clock is ticking on re-signing Adams before the start of free agency next March. Unfortunately, if the Packers wait to sign their star receiver, the price is only likely to go up. NFL salaries go up every year and after two years of diminishing income due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the NFL’s salary cap is expected to rise dramatically as new media deals for the league kick in. That will give the Packers a little more cap space to sign key players but will also drive up the price of signing potential free agents.
In addition, if Adams continues to play at the elite level he’s been playing at this season, he will only reinforce his high value as a free agent and his designation as the best receiver in the game today.
The time to act is now if the Packers want to keep Adams in the fold in 2022 and beyond.
You can follow Gil Martin on Twitter @GilPackers
Comments (76)
Coldworld
October 14, 2021 at 12:03 pm
With what money?
PewAuKeeFan
October 14, 2021 at 01:54 pm
Monopoly
Todd
October 14, 2021 at 07:47 pm
Exactly Coldworld.
scourge
October 16, 2021 at 04:20 am
Which isn't far off from what the NFL salary cap actually is. Monopoly money.
Spiker
October 14, 2021 at 12:27 pm
With what money?, the Packers don't have any. Of course, they trade that egotistical drama queen, they will be able to afford it, until then, not a chance
Duneslick
October 14, 2021 at 04:43 pm
Trading rodgers wont get them even close.
scourge
October 16, 2021 at 04:36 am
Re-signing Rodgers to an extension would get them closer.
But if you're trading Rodgers, you're saving 20 million. Then you'd cut the Smiths and Cobb and you're 25 million under next years cap.
It's pretty simple. The goal is to get to 2023 when the cap will go insane. They SHOULD be done paying back the covid loses to the pension fund, health care, just all the things they put off and that 110 billion dollar deal kicks in.
So option 1-Re-sign Rodgers. His cap hit goes from ~47 to probably 20(+27), extend or cut the Smiths(I could see them extending Za'Darius for a year with void years so he can prove he's back, but either way, that's at least ~28 million saved.
Cobb may be brought back, but not at nearly 10. That's 6-7 million.
AT that point they're 30+ under
Clark signed a 4/72 million dollar deal and his cap hit in year 1 was...what, 6.8 or something. So Adams gets a 5 years/125 deal(hopefully that's "highest paid" to him and you try and keep the cap hit for year 1 down to 10 million.
Option 2-
Trade Rodgers(+20 million)
Cut the Smiths(+27 million)
Cut Cobb(+7 million)
25 under
Tag and trade 'Tae. The franchise tag will likely be less than 20 million and I'm sure plenty of teams will be willing to give up at least a 2nd to grab him if not a 1st.
Option 1 keeps us REAL tight to the cap the next 4-5 years but we keep Rodgers.
Option 2 and we're out of cap hell after just ONE year, but we'll likely be bad for a couple years(Rodgers was 6-10 in year 1) but at least you get at least 2 1sts for Rodgers, a 1st or 2nd for Adams and by that point, you'll probably be 100 million under the cap going into 2023.
If they think Love is really that good maybe they'll go that route. Realistically...it'll probably be up to Rodgers.
TarynsEyes
October 14, 2021 at 12:31 pm
Not to feed the rumor mill, but it would appear that a possible Rodgers/Adams going to Pittsburgh to replace Ben/JuJu might become more a reality as time moves on. I believe this may be the marriage prenup that Rodgers and Adams agreed to during the last off-season where Adams supported Rodgers and Adams making a point about being paid what GB obviously cannot afford.
13TimeChamps
October 14, 2021 at 12:48 pm
Not to feed the rumor mill, but.....Lol
What happened to the last juicy rumor about Rodgers, and possibly Adams, going to Denver in a deal that was already agreed upon before the draft? I give this one as much credence as that one.
mattgsx
October 14, 2021 at 02:35 pm
Was that Schefter? His stories aren't worth the bytes consumed to publish them, and with the emails the LA Times obtained between him and Bruce Allen, I'll be disappointed if ESPN doesn't fire him.
scourge
October 16, 2021 at 04:56 am
Oh...I give the Rodgers to Denver one FAR more credibility than the Steelers one.
Denver was the team that called about him, former players said Elway was pursuing him, they do have an elite roster that's a QB away.
There was actual reason behind that OTHER than Rodgers just saying he has respect for their head coach...something he's said over the years about so many different HCs.
GB is the best situation for Rodgers to win. That's supposed to be his top priority. If that's what he wants, he can sign an extension where just HIS new contract would put the Packers right at the cap next year. That'll never happen, but if he wants to return, I'm sure they'd structure a new deal so his cap hit in Yr1 goes from 47 million to 17 million or so.
Maybe this is the year to give everyone the monster deals. That way when the cap shoots up to 300 million in '23, they'll look like deals. And I'm only half serious. Look at most of the Cowboys contracts. When they pay the right player, HALF the deal ends up looking like a HUGE discount. Look at Tyron Smith. He signed an unprecedented contract about when Bahk signed his first. Smith was better.
Rather than give Smith 4 years so he could become a FA again a couple years ago, they gave him 9/97 in what most people said was irresponsible.
The Packers should have done that with Bahk, Adams last time, but they should DEFINITELY do it with Jaire and Jenkins right now. Give Jaire a 7 year 175M dollar extension, 90 SB, Jenkins a 8 year 120M dollar deal, 50 guaranteed...and if he moves to RT, that looks like a massive discount(probably will either way).
Tonyan, Gary, Savage, MVS...these guys aren't proven enough for those types of deals, but if you give your clear, AP caliber players those types of extensions...it saves you money.
Smith's cap hit was due to be ~8-10 million the last 3 years without any dead money until they restructured it. But that's what Bahk could be making.
Zach Martin's 6/84 million dollar deal is another example.
Zeke and Dexter Lawrence's are terrible, but if you balance it out with Martin and Smith, they're still coming in under market as a group.
mattgsx
October 14, 2021 at 12:52 pm
All things are possible, but the question is whether PIT would want to build for the future or take all the cap cleaning they've done just to blow it up again (not to mention the draft capital they'd give up to get Rodgers would hamper their ability to build the roster).
Houston (assuming they can resolve Watson), NYG, or MAYBE Miami all seem more likely to me.
TarynsEyes
October 14, 2021 at 02:02 pm
Perhaps Rodgers and Adams will go to Pitt willing to take less in order to remain a duo, which obviously is and would be beneficial and a quick rebuild. A couple of SB appearances makes it all OK.
dobber
October 14, 2021 at 02:09 pm
For the reasons you state, I don't think Houston would be a player. They'll dump Watson and rebuild...all signs point to him going to Miami.
Include Cleveland in this mix. They've got a lot of young talent, and while Mayfield has been a decent game manager, he's not been a difference maker and he's not elevated the play of his receivers. They've got to make a long-term decision on him shortly. The Patriots and the Colts might be in the mix on the AFC side, too.
On the NFC side, I would add Washington and the Saints to the Giants.
mattgsx
October 14, 2021 at 04:16 pm
Colts, Saints, WFT all make sense to me. Not sure on the Pats. I think Mac has been the most impressive rookie QB so far, and they have the cap space to buy him a supporting cast.
Of course, all of this is a problem for NEXT YEAR. For now I'm just gonna enjoy the ride.
Gee
October 14, 2021 at 04:42 pm
Agree on NE if Mac had flamed out, then maybe now I just don't see it.
dobber
October 15, 2021 at 10:56 am
"For now I'm just gonna enjoy the ride."
That's the place to be, matt!
scourge
October 16, 2021 at 05:06 am
No, I don't see any reason why Hou would want to get involved. They've got a brutal roster. If I was Hou, I'd be looking at guys like Neal and Thibodeaux, build an OL, DL first, then worry about your next QB.
I think Miami is an option...well run team with a lot of weapons, talent on defense, they play hard, but they are not good at QB yet and they've got 4 1sts in the next 2 years and they've got 80+ million in cap space next year.
Denver also has 80+ million...though a lot of free agents.
I'd guess it's Den, Miami and Indy, Wash and then the Browns(they should be higher, but they really think Baker's legit).
dobber
October 14, 2021 at 12:55 pm
The time to extend Adams was about a year ago at this point.
Gee
October 14, 2021 at 04:43 pm
^^This^^ that horse has left the barn.
Leatherhead
October 14, 2021 at 12:55 pm
A truly terrible idea. We won’t be getting the 27, 28 year old Davante. We’ll get the version that’s over 30.
Go and look at what older receivers are doing, then look at guys on their rookie contracts like Chase and McLaurin and Jefferson are doing, for a lot less.
Replace Davante with a young blue chip who can grow with Love.
Coldworld
October 14, 2021 at 01:20 pm
And you called it: Adams without Rodgers is a hugely expensive older player with a raw QB. Rodgers without Adams us equally hard to envisage. Rodgers with Adams seems beyond feasible.
Oppy
October 14, 2021 at 07:21 pm
Rodgers isn't even a part of the equation.
The Packers shouldn't pay a WR that kind of money, period.
D. Hopkins contract is a massive outlier and shouldn't be used as the measuring stick. IMO, a team will not sustain long term success with a WR getting paid that type of money.
Adams is legitimately one of if not the premier WRs in the league, but no WR is worth that kind of money. If that's really the sticking point, I wish him well with whoever agrees to pay him.
scourge
October 16, 2021 at 05:13 am
No, definitely not if he's using D-Hops extension.
Adams and Allen Robinson are basically the same player. One has had Rodgers throwing to him, the other has had the Jags QBs throwing(still put up 1400 yards).
If Rodgers is coming back...they've gotta just kick the can down the road and re-sign everyone. If he's NOT, makes more sense to clear the cap space, tag Adams, trade him and see if you can work out a deal for Robinson, or really just go young, but if you HAVE to add a #1 WRer, then I think Robinson is a much better deal.
I mean...a 4 year 112 million dollar deal to a WRer is absolutely insane. A 4 year 90 million dollar deal to a WRer who's not just the same size, speed, etc...but younger...well, it's not ideal, but none of this is.
Oppy
October 16, 2021 at 11:29 am
Rodgers isn't coming back.
As far as tagging Adams and trading him; I think that idea is the most business savvy I've heard.
That being said, I believe the Packers have had an unwritten rule in the front office that they don't use the franchise tag to retain players who are unhappy/disgruntled/unwilling to negotiate, and they don't use the franchise tag to retain rights for trading a player.
The Packers have only used the franchise tag to temporarily hold players they are in active negotiations with- it's like a place holder while they finish up business of contract negotiations in good faith with a player. Ryan Pickett had a franchise tag placed on him a number of years ago and that was the case with him- the Packers ended up inking his longer term deal within a month or two after tagging him.
scullyitsme
October 14, 2021 at 01:21 pm
If Rodgers goes we won’t be contenders anyway so no point in paying Adams. Save all the cash and spend it on defense would be the way to go, we’ll need it until love either gets good or he doesn’t and we get a fill in qb with a good defense.
mattgsx
October 14, 2021 at 04:50 pm
Conversely, the Packers wouldn't be competitive next year WITH Rodgers. The cuts that would have to be made to get back under the cap are staggering, and thanks to some of the salary to bonus conversions that were made, I'm not even sure they could clear enough money to do so + be able to sign enough minimum qualified contracts to get back to 53? Either way, anything Rodgers brings to the table would be negated by losing so many key players.
Bringing back Rodgers pretty much guarantees you'll lose the Smiths, Jaire, every WR except Amari, our new ILBs, Turner, Amos, Crosby, Lowry, and King. Some of those you can be OK with losing. But if they're all gone at once???
Todd
October 14, 2021 at 07:49 pm
Good points, and one thing you never hear is Rodgers saying he’s willing to take less money in order to keep some of those players.
ricky
October 14, 2021 at 01:30 pm
The Packers will be clearing a lot of money from the salary cap when they let Rodgers and Adams go to another team/teams. They could possibly do a sign and trade with Rodgers, with Adams tacitly being attached with the deal. But who has the cap space and draft capital to pull off a deal like that? It appears the Broncos would have the cap space, but some players would also have to go to the Packers to pull off a trade for Rodgers/Adams. The Steelers don't have the cap space, or the draft capital. And unless they're willing to let go of some quality players, that won't be happening. Miami has both cap space and draft picks. So where does Rodgers want to play? Pittsburgh is not a realistic option, but Denver and Miami are possibilities.
CheesyTex
October 14, 2021 at 03:41 pm
`Giants, too.
MarkinMadison
October 14, 2021 at 05:26 pm
Well since Adams isn't under contract for next year parting with him actually saves the Packers $0. They also can't trade Adams, since, you know, he is not actually under contract.
scourge
October 16, 2021 at 05:15 am
Yeah...but in THIS scenario you actually can do SOMETHING like a "sign and trade," in that you could Tag Adams and then trade him.
How you do a sign and trade with Rodgers is baffling to me. That doesn't help out either side.
barutanseijin
October 14, 2021 at 05:35 pm
Rodgers’ trade value is probably less than you would think. Due to the huge amounts of money involved, there won’t be that many bidders. What’s more, some might think that they’ll be able to wait to make a deal when the Packers are desperate and nervous, that is, until right before the Packers have to cut Rodgers. Plus, how much does he really have left? Whatever you might think as a Packer fan, other teams may be more skeptical. The optimal time to trade him has past.
dobber
October 15, 2021 at 10:49 am
"But who has the cap space and draft capital to pull off a deal like that? "
Any trade for ARod would have to involve allowing the trade partner to re-work ARod's contract prior to finalizing the deal. I think this is less of a problem than we make it.
Most teams would be trading for #12 'for the now': they'd be looking for 2--maybe 3--years of ARod and trying to win titles before cutting him loose and rebuilding their own teams. They'll structure his contract so that the AAV preens his ego, but the actual cap hits those first couple years will be relatively low. They'll be worried more about surrounding him with players that allow them to win now, and less concerned with lottery tickets. On the converse, if you're the Packers and you're committed to rebuilding, why would you diminish your compensation by taking another teams' vets and contracts who maybe help make you OK now, but do little for the window you're building for?
Pittsburgh still has all their day 1 and day 2 picks in 2022.
PatrickGB
October 15, 2021 at 11:41 am
It’s been a while since I looked but I think that the Colts have the cap space. They are somewhat unsettled at the QB position. But I don’t know if Mr. Rodgers would approve. But I could see the Colts being able to afford both Adams and Rodgers I could see them be successful there. But that’s just fantasy talk anyway.
scourge
October 16, 2021 at 05:23 am
A "sign and trade" in the NFL?
That makes zero sense. What they WOULD do would be allow Rodgers to talk to teams, let them negotiate a contract and if a team felt comfortable with the talks, they could trade for him with the framework in place. But a REAL sign and trade? What, Packers go 6/255 million(whatever just beats Allen) give him 80 million guaranteed, all of which immediately becomes dead cap space and now the Packers have a 100 million dollar cap hit for Rodgers?
That just doesn't work.
And they don't have to tacitly agree to send Adams as well, they could tag him and then just make it a 2 player trade. For example, 4 1st+a couple mid round picks for Rodgers and Adams and then it's on them to work out the extensions.
And what teams have the money? Well, aside from all of them because for MOST teams they can create 40-50 million in cap space if they're willing to pay down the road, but the teams that are the most likely to want Rodgers.
Under the cap for 2022
Miami-80 million
Denver-80 million
Wash-65
Indy-58
Cleve-50+ million...assuming they'd trade Baker and OBJ if they'd be acquiring Rodgers and Adams.
gkarl
October 14, 2021 at 01:36 pm
The only extension they're are going to get from Adams at this point is the one they already got this year, 17 games instead of 16.
Hematite
October 14, 2021 at 01:46 pm
No!
Don't do it!
Too much money!
TheVOR
October 14, 2021 at 01:54 pm
It makes absolutely ZERO sense to extend Adams without Rodgers Under Center. Period. Paying Adams like the highest paid WR in the league, and then having Love throwing to him, he’ll be making about 250,000 a catch next season, which would be money poorly spent again because, Jordan love will be throwing the football. We all know what that’s gonna look like, a total nightmare.
Oppy
October 14, 2021 at 07:24 pm
What are we basing the total nightmare on?
TheVOR
October 15, 2021 at 09:49 am
Hey Oppy, go look at any film, be it college or pro, and you possibly ignore what the film says. All his TD's were these big long looping passes. The man has a really nice touch pass.
There I said it, it's his single most redeemable characteristic. Unfortunately, it's a little used pass in the NFL QB Arsenal. Anything else he has to do, is mediocre. The draft notion that he was somehow the 2nd coming of Patrick Mahomes is ridiculous! The notion that he has NFL arm strength is also a misnomer.
What the film actually says is he’s terrifically inaccurate when he has to amp up the throws, Thats why he prefers touch passes. He has ball security issues, doesn’t really read defense that well, and has messy footwork. Doesn't have good pocket presence. There isn’t anything else to look at except Magical Rainbow Unicorn passes that fly in college, but seldom in the NFL. His game doesn’t translate to the Pro’s.
The sad part is, you’ll have to watch him for the next 2 years before the Packers know what they should have known before drafting him. Terrible organizational draft evaluation of a player that will likely be out of football in 2-3 years. He’s not an NFL QB. All the hope that he’ll somehow develop into one because he’s playing behind one of the greatest ever is ridiculous.
Just to frame this for you, he’s probably not as good as Deshone Kizer was. Kizer had more upside, and he’s gonzo as well. All I can say is we’d better pray they can figure out how to milk a few more years out of Rodgers, because we don’t have another real NFL prospect on the roster. I would argue that Benkert might actually have the higher ceiling than Love. My 2..
Coldworld
October 15, 2021 at 05:51 pm
While I disagree with your convictions on Love being the inevitable outcome, I do agree that you don’t pay that kind of money to a 30 year old receiver with a first year starting QB. Even ignoring the cap hangover, you want players that will ascend with him and perhaps cheaper veteran support.
scourge
October 16, 2021 at 05:40 am
This is quite literally the WORST evaluation I've ever seen....for a QB who's TWENTY-TWO YEARS OLD...22 today and came out when he was 21.
No, his problem...aside from the fact that he has a bad 3rd year in College after losing his ENTIRE OL and top 7 pass catchers...was that he tried to fit the ball into small windows TOO often.
It was the same issue they said he had in Green Bay. That he DIDN'T have enough touch yet. That he just tried to fire everything in there.
But this is so funny. People just do NOT remember when we had a young QB who had;
-Below average arm strength
-Could not make all the throws, especially outside the numbers
-Had a slow and clunky delivery because he was a TEDFORD QB and started with the ball up around his ear hole and needed a big windup.
I don't disagree that we'd probably be better off(at least in the short term) trying to bring Rodgers back. He's unique. But saying he has LESS upside than Kizer is just...don't say you watched the tape man. You've NEVER watched the tape, you watched a few pre-season throws in which MLF specifically talked about how he needs to put a little more air under some of his throws and try and throw with a little more touch.
The "He's got Patrick Mahomes upside," it's what they do with young QBs. But he absolutely has a BIG time arm...
In FACT...per PFF, Love had the most "big time throws," and the most throws-throwing into a tight window the year he struggled. His WRers were like 107th in separation per route.
He also was pressured more...but he stuck on his first progression(3rd offense in 3 seasons though) and he had the most turnover worth plays of any QB taken in the 1st round out of 33 they compared.
Saying he doesn't have the physical upside to throw the ball into a tight window...it's just objectively false and shows you may talk about watching the tape, but you do NOT do it.
I have absolutely no idea what he'll turn into, but arguing he has a lower ceiling than Benkert is just...c'mon man. Just say you wished they'd grabbed a WR'er. You don't need to go SO far over the top to try and make your "point."
PewAuKeeFan
October 14, 2021 at 01:58 pm
Who needs Adams? We have ESB.
Packers have signed St.Brown to the active roster, so now all is rosy! ~~
packer132
October 14, 2021 at 02:29 pm
St. Brown will be on the roster for this week only. When MVS returns next week, he will be waived.
jont
October 14, 2021 at 03:42 pm
This is what my crystal ball says too. A team can elevate a guy only 2 or 3 times, I read somewhere, and EQ has hit the limit. It seems to me that the choice was park him on the PS for the season (and for no apparent reason) or put him on the 53 for a week or two and then cut him loose.
Then maybe we'll start seeing Malik now and then, I imagine.
TXCHEESE
October 14, 2021 at 04:04 pm
Yes, this made me laugh out loud.
jont
October 14, 2021 at 03:38 pm
All it takes is one team willing to open the wallet and your player is no longer affordable. I'm pretty sure somebody will pay Devante.
That said, I will remain hopeful thanks to this line: "the NFL’s salary cap is expected to rise dramatically as new media deals for the league kick in." Does anyone have a guess on how much this will be? Substantial enough to make it possible to keep 12 and 17?
MarkinMadison
October 14, 2021 at 05:29 pm
The 2022 salary cap has been set at $208M. The Packers already have contracts for 2022 totaling over $243M. New money kicks in in 2023.
SwedeBayPacker
October 14, 2021 at 04:04 pm
I'd love to have him (and Sourpuss) on the team next season as much as anybody else, but with what money? Using such a large chunk of the cap space on a couple of star players leaves the rest of the team lacking, as we've seen for several years now. Imagine what could've been if Rodgers got let's say half his ginormous salary and the rest of the money was used on high calibre players on both sides of the ball.
And before anyone says anything: yes he's worth it, yes he's earned it, yes some other team would shower him with money if we don't, but come on. He's already got more money than he can realistically spend during his lifetime. So the question from where I'm standing is, does he want more money or more rings?
jurp
October 15, 2021 at 06:29 pm
If you're talking AR, it seems that he wants constant adoration for his greatness, which he seems to get without the rings.
TXCHEESE
October 14, 2021 at 04:02 pm
I think much of this will come down to how this season turns out. If GB makes it to the SB, it's possible Rodgers and Gute kiss and make up. An extension is done with the understanding that Adams stays in the family. If Adams is after top dog money and Rodgers wants to keep the band together, then Rodgers needs to give the team the Rodgers Rate. Adams is still going to be at the top of his game and he would be well worth the money for a 3 year extension, but you can't spend crazy money on both of them.
Duneslick
October 14, 2021 at 04:46 pm
We dont know if Love is even a starting caliber NFL QB. If not we need draft capital to get one
Alberta_Packer
October 14, 2021 at 04:56 pm
WRs all have finite catches within them and Rodgers-Adams is using them up at an accelerated rate. While Adams is still a high performance sports car - his odometer reading is relatively high - which doesn't augur well for long term sustainability. Also third contracts for players around 30 - is one of the worst values - especially in relation to a team's salary cap. So - pass.
Swisch
October 14, 2021 at 05:53 pm
With Aaron Rodgers seemingly still unable or unwilling to commit to the ball-control offense of our head coach, and with him persistently throwing the ball almost exclusively to Davante Adams, the situation with the Packers as a team seems highly unstable, and unlikely to result in a Super Bowl.
So I would trade Rodgers and Davante as soon as possible, such as tomorrow, if we can get a decent return of a first-rounder, an above average defender, and maybe a couple of other draft picks.
Just getting out from under the weight of the combined salaries of Rodgers/Adams (now and in the future) would be a huge relief.
***
I'm excited to see Jordan Love, although I'd be good with bringing in a veteran for this season as either a starter or backup -- ideally a savvy and unassuming team leader who is cooperative with coaching and likes playing ball control, but can still go deep on occasion (e.g. Joe Flacco?).
Also, I think our other wide receivers who have been passed over this season are very good, and look forward enthusiastically to them getting more of a chance.
***
Finally -- as a matter of no little importance -- unless Rodgers has had some substantial change of heart from this offseason that we don't know about, I'd be glad to be rid of him as an inscrutable enigma of endless speculation. His self-absorbed melodrama is getting old and wearisome. Time to let in some fresh air.
Rebecca
October 15, 2021 at 06:41 pm
Just what is exciting about Jordan Love? So far he’s been a very raw 2nd year rookie who has played in one NFL game during the worst drubbing the team has taken in years. Why isn’t he starting like all the other young 2nd and 3rd year qb’s around the league? If he was so exciting Aaron Rodgers would be gone and the Packers would be 5 -0 with Jordan Love on all the highlight reels.
Swisch
October 15, 2021 at 09:54 pm
It is tricky playing young quarterbacks, and they can really struggle. They are exciting -- including, I think, Jordan Love -- but I agree that it can be hard to be patient with them.
Just in case Love needs more time, I did write that it would be good to bring in another veteran QB if Rodgers were to leave this season.
I also agree there's not a lot to go on with Love as a pro, but you could say that about Trevor Lawrence, too. It does seem important to remember that Love was drafted as more of a project that would take some extra time to develop, and that he was hindered due to the season of COVID in 2020.
All of these young QBs are big question marks for their first few seasons, I'm excited about what little I've seen with Love, but I just don't know. Examples of hall-of-famers who took awhile to figure out the NFL are Bart Starr and Steve Young.
***
My major point is that if Aaron Rodgers isn't really on board with the Packers, let's move on sooner rather than later. Try to work out a trade that is good for him and for us.
I'd be ready to give Love a try right away, or to have a veteran come in for the time being.
I'm hoping that in a season or two Love is somewhat like what Josh Allen of the Bills has become.
Take care, Rebecca.
HarryHodag
October 14, 2021 at 05:49 pm
Such silliness. It's like buying a Ferrari with $1.25 in your pocket.
Sportrac is insightful for fans who think you can sign the richest contract for a receiver in history, not withstanding having a $17 million cap hit if Rodgers goes AND keep the nucleus of the team intact.
The Packers blew most if not all of their wiggle room this year getting under the cap and are now about $68 million over according to the Mil. Journal-Sentinel.
Adams might follow Rodgers to wherever he ends up.
Adams is worth every penny. Too bad the Packers can't afford him.
Oh yea, Alexander and Jenkins are also on the horizon.
MarkinMadison
October 14, 2021 at 05:50 pm
The Packers do not have the money to resign Adams for next year. The Packers do not have a history of tagging players, although I guess a tag and trade would make some sense here. But to even do that they would have to clear some serious cap space. Here is a recent piece done on tag-and-trades in the NFL.
https://lionswire.usatoday.com/lists/history-of-the-tag-and-trade-outcom...
Thegreatreynoldo
October 14, 2021 at 05:59 pm
GB negotiated with Adams, so Russ Ball must think there is or was a path, a structure, that is or was feasible. It looks like a tortuous path to me, but GB must think it exists.
One thought is that extending Adams now or last August allows the Packers to reduce Adams' cap number for 2021 and use the savings to ease the cap problems for 2022 (using 2021 savings to offset some or all of Adams' 2022 cap number). Say the deal reduces Adams' 2021 cap number by $6M to $10M. If Adams is worth $25M/year, it has happened in the past where the Packers pay 40% of AAV as a first year cap number. .4 x $25M is $10M cap number for 2022. So, get $10M is savings out of 2021 and a $10M cap number for 2022 is cap neutral.
That ship has left port and is slowly sailing out of sight. GB has paid Adams $3.75M roughly so far this season ($12.25M/18 weeks times 5 games plus GA bonus of $500K/17 x 5 games). That is on the cap now and can't be changed. Adams receives about $710K for every game (week) he plays. So the amount of cap savings possible gets less and less as the season continues. At present, GB can now only get something like $7M in savings if a deal is done now. And that requires Adams to accept getting $4.5M or so in cash in 2021 instead of the $12.75M his current deal schedules. Agents really care about cash flow, even if the money is guaranteed in the future.
I don't think time favors the notion of GB retaining/extending Adams. Yes, the team could wait for the end of the season and re-sign Adams, but it would require a nasty contract structure (cap numbers probably approaching and then exceeding $30M in 2023, '24, '25, and '26) to meet the 2022 cap issues.
Coldworld
October 15, 2021 at 05:55 pm
Green Bay had some communication with Adams. Doesn’t sound to me like it got much beyond what the team felt it can pay verses what he feels he should be paid. It was clear that the two camps were far apart in their estimates of value.
Tundraboy
October 14, 2021 at 06:40 pm
Adams staying is impossible if Rodgers doesn’t take a hometown deal to stay.
Oppy
October 14, 2021 at 07:32 pm
Rodgers taking a hometown deal to stay makes it even more unlikely Adams could be a Packers next year.. since as of right now, the chances are Rodgers contract gets traded away to free up cap and gain draft capital and/or players to strengthen the team for the long term future.
Gute
October 14, 2021 at 07:10 pm
What a stoopid article.
GregC
October 14, 2021 at 07:11 pm
I disagree with the author, especially the part about Adams being less likely than other receivers to seriously decline in his 30s. The fact that he is not a speed burner actually gives him less margin for being productive when his speed begins to decline, though he could hang around as a short-area receiver for awhile. Antonio Freeman did not have great speed, and he declined very quickly when he got a little older. By the end, he was basically a non-blocking tight end. Also, it's not just speed that declines, it's the ability to make sharp cuts, which is what Adams' game is built on more than anything. He is incredibly flexible and has amazing change of direction. Those abilities will decline as he gets older, just as surely as his speed declines. I don't think his future is in Green Bay.
MarkinMadison
October 14, 2021 at 08:55 pm
Jerry Rice was never a speed burner. He was very productive into his late 30s.
Coldworld
October 15, 2021 at 06:05 pm
Adams is a quick twitch athlete. That can go fast, but his awareness will not. The question isn’t can Adams play well into his 30s, but at what level he can do so. If he loses elusiveness he can still be effective, I believe, but not to a level he seems to expect to be paid at.
That’s the problem, players want to be paid based on past performance, teams want to pay based on future play. The team that acquire Adams next year will likely assume a great deal of risk of overpaying heavily later if Adams gets multi year guarantees. I can see Adams being a good player after but not to his current level. A team will take that risk, but it won’t be one with a new QB.
Dragon5
October 14, 2021 at 08:35 pm
You witnessed Gute mess up (being polite given I warned several times not to) re-upping Bahk just prior to his enemy year. How's that worked for us? I've reposted this numerous times: don't re-up a player entering his enemy year. Adams & Smith Bros all entering theirs next year. Don't be surprised to see 'Tae with an IR designation next year, or, wherever he ends up, statistically has a very poor season. Smith Bros will have combined $22.75m dead cap hit...if a rebuild occurs, please find trade partners to bring in promising assets for these proven vets.
Since'61
October 14, 2021 at 09:34 pm
We’re looking at losing two of the best players in the league at their respective positions in Rodgers and Adams. In addition we’re likely to lose Z or Preston Smith. There will probably be other cap casualties as well.
Gute and Ball have built a solid roster but they have also put the Packers in a cap hell which could take years to recover from. This truly is an SB or bust season.
An SB buys Gute, Ball, Murphy and MLF at least another 3-5 seasons. However, failure to achieve the goal plus the loss of some of the best players in the league and they could be gone in 2-3 seasons.
Can’t complain about going all in but we could be looking at long term consequences. We’ll see. Thanks, Since ‘61
HarryHodag
October 15, 2021 at 07:56 am
There is a theory that every team is 'all in' every year, but in reality, only a handful of teams have the horsepower to win the race.
I was always ticked off at Ted Thompson for his approach to the cap. I always chided him for trying to win the trophy for the most cap space available. I think that, more than Rodgers throwing a fit, was the reason for Mike McCarthy's departure. The team simply ran out of talent, even with a HOF QB. Gute/Ball have worked on the opposite side of the equation. They have spent much in free agency and have put the Packers into a position to win. But the salary cap is the great equalizer. It will eventually come back and get you.
The Packers simply can't keep everyone at the price they want. Next year could be an interesting year.
Since'61
October 15, 2021 at 09:35 am
Harry I agree. I think MMs team became too depleted of talent plus poor drafting prevented enough new talent from replacing the older players. Also, MM seemed like he was just going through the motions the last 2-3 seasons he was in Green Bay.
As for Ted I never understood why he left money in the salary cap account every season. Sometimes as much as $7-8 million dollars.
Next season will be interesting. I think that our team is going to look very different and I don’t think we will be able to replace the level of talent in the short term or maybe even the longer term. Stay well. Thanks, Since ‘61
Dzehren
October 15, 2021 at 12:04 am
Planning on Extending CB Alexander or extending RT Jenkins would be a better move.
scourge
October 16, 2021 at 06:14 am
I would like to once again renew my objection to the Packers standard, boring 4 year deals.
Both of these players are superstars and there's no reason to think they won't be for 6-7 years.
The way the cap goes up year after year unless there's a once in a 100 year pandemic...it makes SO much more sense to lock each up to 7-8 year deals like Dallas does.
Tyron Smith got a 9/97 deal when Bahk got a 4/48 deal. 4 years later Bahk got 4/92 while Smith is on a VERY affordable deal that had no dead money before this year when they restructured. Zach Martin has a similar deal. Both were looked at as being outrageous, BOTH are team friendly at this point.
I say give Alexander a massive 7 year 160 million dollar deal with maybe 60 in signing bonuses and another 30 in guarantees early on.
Give Jenkins a 8 year 128 deal, 16 per year, 45 up front, 65 total guaranteed.
4 years from now when they're still just 28 and 29 and WOULD be ready for new contracts, and the top paid CBs are getting 40 million a year(probably NOT hyperbolic with the 110 BILLION dollar TV deal coming) and the top RTs are making 30 million, BOTH will be GREAT team values!
Now....again, I've suggested doing this like Dallas does, but with some common sense. You don't hand this deal out to Savage, Gary, MVS, Tonyan. Just your All Pro caliber players who are in their mid 20s.
It benefits both players as they get to set the market and it benefits the Packers in that 4 years from now they don't have to pay each twice as much per year as they WOULD be making. If a player gets hurt or his play declines, it's a killer. But if you do this with enough truly elite players...for instance, if you did this with Bakh and Adams, one guy like Tyron Smith going down with injuries' wouldn't be a cap killer. Just like the Cowboys waiving Jaylon Smith wasn't devastating to their cap.
Also...then when you decide it makes SO much more sense to play Jenkins at RT because...it's objectively more important and more difficult to find than a Guard and he's shown he's long enough(always been long enough) and athletic enough to handle edge rushers, it becomes an even more team friendly deal.
You can't pay every player market value. You have to find a way to make a deal both TEAM friendly and appease the player. These longer deals may hurt the Packers yearly cash fund, it'll benefit them a great deal in the long run.
dobber
October 15, 2021 at 10:33 am
I'm all about trying to maximize Adams' value, whether it's on-field or in trade, but that's going to be hard to do. Some have suggested a "tag and trade" scenario for him so the Packers can try to get more than a 2023 comp pick for him, but that would require gutting the roster further to make room: as soon as you tag the player, they count against your cap--that was about $16M for a non-exclusive franchise tag in 2021--so the Packers would have to make over $16M in space under the cap before the start of the 2022 league year. Then you have to ask just what you think someone would give you on the trade market, and would that offset the players you lose making room for a guy you don't plan to keep.
What do the Packers have for pass-catchers in 2022? Nothing. Period. It's ugly. Does that mean they should be forking out the bucks to #17? I suspect that signing two semi-reliable veterans to shore up the receiver room for 2022 or signing one while also extending MVS will cost as much on the cap in 2022 as a first year on an Adams re-sign. Either way, they'll have to be looking to re-populate the WR room with early (day 1 or 2) draft picks, too, which diminishes what you can do in other positions of weakness with your limited draft capital.
It's likely that the Packers could agree with #17 on an extension (4 years seems to be the standard) that would keep his 2022 cap number well below that franchise $16M with the intent of pushing the cash value out into years 3 and 4. Average value is not the yearly cap hit, and almost all players sign deals that look more at guarantees and bonus money since annual cash value means very little--they know they aren't likely to see most of that. We get too hung up on that AAV. Ideally, if you're breaking in a young QB, you'd want to give him reliable pieces to throw to, and a stable of players who know the offense and that your QB can be comfortable with. So the question on #17 is: how much can you swallow on the 2021 and 2022 caps, and how many years do you plan to keep him around so you can write a contract to avoid those hideous, later-year cap hits?
scourge
October 16, 2021 at 05:50 am
Well, the tag is the average OR 120% of the players previous years salary. So you're looking at 20 million for Adams.
That said, while you make a lot of good points(and we're assuming Rodgers is gone) tagging and trading Adams would probably be easier than most franchise tag situations.
Teams are likely to be lining up to acquire the #1 WRer in the NFL. You don't need to hold out for the best possible deal, but again, hypothetically, if you're trading Rodgers to a team like Miami that's got 80 million in cap room, once you reach a deal for Rodgers, you'd likely be able to reach one for Adams very quickly.
And of course you make a good point, they could sign him to a massive deal where his cap hit is cut in half from this year to next. Before Covid, the Cap was supposed to be up around ~250 million for this year with another HUGE jump coming the following year.
Still don't think I'd be giving Adams 27-28 million per year IF Rodgers is leaving, but I disagree that you could not tag him and trade him.
I'll get if they move on from Rodgers and Adams...it'll likely be ADams decision, but you need to come away with at LEAST 3-4 1st round picks for the most unstoppable QB/WRer duo in the NFL.
mjbrogno
October 16, 2021 at 09:47 am
The Adams situation is a tough call. Here is an option, if they cannot get a deal done, franchise tag him. If a team signs him , we’ll get their 1st and 3rd round picks. If Rodgers is traded after this season, we will get a boat load of picks and probably a couple of players. Just remember what the Cowboys did when they traded H. Walker to the Vikings. Yes, it took them three years to put it all together, but it was a nice run. Let’s enjoy the Rodgers and Adams show for now and then we’ll see what happens.