The Monday Morning Packers Game Day Preview

Do you want a Monday Morning Packers Game Day Preview to go with your Monday Morning Joe?  Join me for a preview of all things Packers in this week's edition of the Packers Game Day Preview! Just in over the last hour: Davante Adams is out for tonight's game via himself, yahoo sports, and espn's Adam Schefter.

Good Morning Packer Nation!!! Welcome to The Monday Morning Packers Gameday Preview!  This week the Green Bay Packers will be under the bright lights of Lambeau Field for their first appearance on Monday Night Football.   This matchup will feature another matchup of two former league MVP quarterbacks in Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers, who are supported by some incredible skill position players who are among the leagues best.  It is no secret that Dan Quinn could be coaching to save his job and the Falcons are in pure desperation mode after monumental fourth quarter collapses in back to back weeks.  Will Matt Ryan and the Falcons right the ship in primetime under the bright lights of Lambeau Field or will Aaron Rodgers and the Pack provide the final nail in the coffin for the Birds? I will provide the answer to all of these questions and more in this week’s edition of The Monday Morning Packers Gameday Preview.

Just in over the last hour: Davante Adams is out for tonight's game via himself, yahoo sports, and espn's Adam Schefter   

In this weeks edition, I will talk about how I see this pivotal Monday Night Showdown playing out, three burning questions that will determine the outcome of tonight's game, as well as some fantasy players I think you should use, as well as my picks, parlays, and game props for this week 4 matchup.  I am happy to have you with me here today for the Packers first Monday Night game of the year, so just sit back, relax, and enjoy this morning’s Packers Gameday preview with your morning cup of Joe.

What to Expect Against the Falcons in Week 4?

In this week’s matchup both teams are dealing with a significant amount of injuries that could temper the production of several key skill players.  At this point, with the extra almost day and a half of rest time, it looks like Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Davante Adams, and Kenny Clark have a good chance to suit up tonight.  The question will be whether these game changing players can feel enough like themselves to produce a few big plays and cause the opposing defenses to play them straight up.  

With these thoughts in mind, I think Atlanta’s offense has the best chance to operate at close to 100% which means I expect Matt Ryan to spread the ball all over the field and I expect 100+ yard, touchdown games from both Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones.  I think the Packers defense has been absolutely abhorrent job limiting yards after the catch and I don’t see it getting any better against Atlanta this week.  Furthermore, I see Todd Gurley looking like the old Todd Gurley and Hayden Hurst providing a security blanket for Matt Ryan as he exposes the Packers weakness over the middle of the field. 

Despite their struggles on defense, I still think the Packers will stay in the game by giving Davante Adams a lot of reps early, Aaron Rodgers completing a ton of check down throws, an x-factor at the wide receiver position stepping up, and a constant pounding of rock by Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams.  I honestly think this game has all the trimmings for another Atlanta fourth quarter collapse. 

I just feel like the Packers are too good for the Falcons to put the game out of reach, the Packers have already overcome double digit deficits (should the Falcons get off to a quick start), and the Packers, to this point, have been a second half MONEY team.  Do I sense another Monday Night Mason Walk off?? Stayed tuned to my picks, parlays, and game day props to find out the answer.    

Three Burning Questions That Will Determine the Outcome of Tonight’s Game (Plus a bonus Question for the Smith Bros):

  1. Will MVS and another unknown skill player step up?
  2.  Will Davante Adams be Davante Adams (or close to it)?
  3. Can the defense tackle better and make another clutch turnover to swing the momentum?
  4. Will the Smith Bros be celebrating multiple sacks?

Sunday Night Fantasy Football Picks (Always Start the Plug and Play Guys):

  1. Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Davante Adams, and Aaron Jones- Invest the money into any two or three of these players and expect a big payout in daily fantasy.
  2. Todd Gurley- I know he is not the same player he used to be, but the Packers defense has been an abhorrent tackling unit and still struggles to stop the run.  At worst he’ll get you a red zone touchdown; at best he’ll get you 100+ rushing yards and 2 touchdowns.
  3. Marquez-Valdes-Scantling- As the de facto number 2 and even top receiver at times tonight, it feels like this is a pivotal game in his career.  He has to step up and make plays, and Aaron is going to have to throw a few shot plays in his direction.  To me, MVS is primed to make a few big plays and haul in a touchdown tonight, and fantasy acquisition numbers trend to support these feelings.  I think MVS has 5 catches, 100+ yards, and a touchdown.
  4. Hayden Hurst- I know Jared Cook’s injury burned me last week but I am still sticking to the premise of that thought as I encourage you to take Hayden Hurst as an economical option in daily fantasy.  With the Packers defense struggling to tackle, and their weakness over the middle of the field as well as to tight ends in the red zone, Hurst seems like a slam dunk pick to me.  
  5. Big Bob Tonyan/Jace Sternberger- With Marcedes “Big Dog” Lewis questionable for tonight’s game and the wide receiver group dealing with injuries, look for Aaron Rodgers to build on the success that he had with both Tonyan and Sternberger.  I think both young tight ends could make an impact in the red zone and ultimately find the end zone.   

Picks, Parlays, and Game Props:

  1. Anytime touchdown scorer parlay: (Aaron Jones, Robert Tonyan, Calvin Ridley, Todd Gurley, and Julio Jones) *I feel safe recommending any of these players as an any time touchdown scorer (parlay them however you see fit).
  2. Two Touchdown Scorer: Aaron Jones/Todd Gurley/Julio Jones.
  3. Game Prop: Both teams to score 2+ touchdowns in each half. (+1000)
  4. Game Prop: Combined Score Over (56.5) points.
  5. Game Prop Parlay: (Falcons +7 and over 56.5 points)
  6. $5 five team parlay: Ravens, Rams, Seahawks, Saints, and Cardinals.
  7. Game Pick: Packers 38 Falcons 34, I think the Packers and Falcons trade blows for most of the first half and the Falcons open up a ten-point lead early in the third quarter only to watch the Packers wake up and put on a 25-minute second half clinic.  As always, the Packers defense will surrender a meaningless but annoying “prevent defense” touchdown. 

Packer fans, I want to hear from you!  Let me know your thoughts on this week's Monday Night Showdown from Lambeau.  How do you see this one playing out? Did you hit on any fantasy or game/parlay picks from last week?  What are your picks for this week? 

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David Michalski is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @kilbas27dave 

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Comments (31)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Lphill's picture

October 05, 2020 at 06:47 am

I’m reading that Z Smith, Alexander, Gary , Lewis. Are all no go for tonight, any word on them ?

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PackerAaron's picture

October 05, 2020 at 06:51 am

There won't be word on anyone until tonight.

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PackfanNY's picture

October 05, 2020 at 09:14 am

Davante Adams tweeted that he is being held out tonight by the Packers. He says he’s ready but... He does not sound happy.

It is ridiculous that team is holding healthy players out.

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Coldworld's picture

October 05, 2020 at 10:30 am

Lol, players have always been the best arbiters of their health. No doubt you would be among the first screaming if he aggravated his injury and was out for several games. Get real. If we lose it’s hardly the end of the world, certainly compared to risking Adams absence for an extended period.

Want to get worried about tonight’s game? Focus on how we will rush the passer if Clark and Gary don’t go. If we don’t pressure the QB tonight, opportunities to score will be few and far between. We don’t have a cover guy with any experience other than Preston Smith. We will be challenged there if those two don’t play.

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DavidMichalski's picture

October 05, 2020 at 07:12 am

As of late last night everyone was still questionable.

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Hematite's picture

October 05, 2020 at 09:08 am

I never want to see the Packers lose, but this game isn't that important.
I would rather that they give D Adams and Clark the night off and hopefully attain full recovery from their injuries.

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Coldworld's picture

October 05, 2020 at 10:42 am

This, unfortunately, is a game where we get to see a lot of depth all at once. In the long term, that is good for the team. Players need to play. They get experience, evaluators get far more information than in a practice or even preseason game. We are going to need these players to win. They will improve from playing.

We don’t need star players to aggravate injuries. If we lose we are 3:1, tied with a Bears team that looked non/existent on offense bar Robinson who is hardly a world beater. The loss of Cohen is going to hurt them badly. Then we have a bye and the majority of injuries are not long term. Overall, if there is a game we can afford to lose its this one. Don’t want to, and actually, I doubt it’s the offense that causes us to if all on the report are out.

These are the games that pay dividends when it matters by showing what we have behind our preferred starters and getting those players experience. Gute and LaFleur will get real value from this, so will some players. Who knows we may be pleasantly surprised. If we win, it will be a major confidence boost.

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PatrickGB's picture

October 05, 2020 at 10:31 am

That’s a whole lot of key players! My gut tells me that if it’s true then we lose our first game.

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DavidMichalski's picture

October 05, 2020 at 11:18 am

Big Dog most likely out, Jaire Smith and Gary will probably play, if I were to speculate. With Davante out, I’d speculate doc keeps Kenny out as well, at best it’s a game time decision.

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PackfanNY's picture

October 05, 2020 at 12:06 pm

David, fair question, what does Kenny Clark’s injury have to do with Davante Adams? If Clark is healthy wouldn’t he play?

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DavidMichalski's picture

October 05, 2020 at 12:59 pm

It sets a precedent for what we can expect. Both players had the same practice routines, Kenny probably could play but with a bye week next week they probably are considering a similar course of action to ensure that he returns at full strength and is not at risk to have a relapse.

Also, just giving my thoughts on a previous question asked.

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Coldworld's picture

October 05, 2020 at 01:45 pm

If we keep Clark out, who at least practiced, it would seem at least 50:50 that Alexander, who did not, wont go either. The game day actives could include a number of players whom we will only risk as a last resort.

Maybe all the questionables bar Adams will play, but my gut tells me that, with this many already down, most will not. I can’t convince myself that erring on the side of caution is the wrong strategy either, in the long term.

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mnbadger's picture

October 05, 2020 at 08:16 am

David, you accurately pointed out our defensive weaknesses but didn't directly mention Atlanta's.
Tonight, with all of the injuries, Atlanta offense > GB offense. GB defense > Atlanta defense. I'm picking Mason Crosby to be the difference in Packers' win. Let's hope JKScott can play or Crosby may be punting too. GPG

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DavidMichalski's picture

October 05, 2020 at 09:13 am

Lol I teased another Crosby Monday Night walkoff but I think the Packers get out to a two score lead later in the second half. Plus I’d say a 38-34 Packers win highlights how I feel about Atlanta’s defense. Thanks for the comment! Go Pack Go!

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Leatherhead's picture

October 05, 2020 at 12:02 pm

OK, since you went there.

Atlanta is averaging 30 ppg on offense, so you think they'll go over that on the road against our defense? I'm not buying that. We'll use ball control /clock control to limit Atlanta's time on offense, and we'll stop them enough times that they won't hit 30.

I don't think Atlanta will snap the ball once in the second half with a chance to take the lead.

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mnbadger's picture

October 05, 2020 at 08:19 am

Better yet, let's forget about punting and play it like the full blown shootout that it's going to be. Punt free zone. GPG

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Leatherhead's picture

October 05, 2020 at 11:56 am

We've only punted 5 times in three games. 0 turnovers. 0 missed field goals.

Yeah, I'd love to see Scott sit the game out, except for holding on extra points.

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Coldworld's picture

October 05, 2020 at 11:59 am

He is sick, not injured I thought

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Coldworld's picture

October 05, 2020 at 08:32 am

Sometimes I wonder if some people really watch football. It is a game of injuries. Success either requires incredible luck on the health front or unknowns and players previously thought JAGs or worse to step up.

In 2011 injuries became a way of life. In the regular season, 12 starters missed a total of 86 games and 31 players missed a total of 180 games. The 2003 New England Patriots won the Super Bowl despite starters missing a total of 103 games.

Those two may be the most injury challenged winners in the cap era, but it is nevertheless the nature of the game. By design, the cap prevents teams having quality and experience throughout their roster. Teams win by surviving injuries and having depth players with potential unknown to others is as important as the quality of the opening day starters.

That’s football. It’s a tough game for players but also for coaches and GMs. Get over it and enjoy seeing how LaFleur and co handle adversity because it was inevitably coming and it’s just as much as much a challenge That must be overcome as any team in the schedule. Coaching through it is one of the true test of a coach.

If that has not stiffened resolve, thus far out injuries are mostly of limited duration. It could have been, and may yet be, far worse. Did any of you think we were going to be unbeaten? Did you expect 3:0, that our opening roster would be identical to that entering the playoffs? If so the problem may lie there not in the roster.

Tonight is likely going to be a challenge. Look at it as an opportunity for players to impress. If we lose, remember, we will be 3:1, tied for the division lead and still appear to be the best team in the division. Oh, and we are heading into a bye so many should be ready to roll after this game.

You never know, we might unearth some talent tonight. Unknown is not necessarily untalented. The newly elevated players could yet be key to our success over the season. This game will be interesting for a whole bunch of reasons beyond the score.

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Leatherhead's picture

October 05, 2020 at 09:08 am

I think they watch football, but not played much or coached. I had a squad of 44 freshmen once and when we took the field for our final game of the season we had 17 . Everybody else was injured or ineligible because of grades.

It’s a sport where you have to manage injuries and scale back game plans to account for them.....on a weekly basis. Does any other sport require that?

That’s why I think the most important ability is avail-ability. Some people talk down these guys who suit up and play every week. Not me.

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mnbadger's picture

October 14, 2020 at 07:22 am

my freshmen HS team had 17 players to start and 13 at the end of an 8-0 season.
We lost 2 to discipline policy and 2 to broken bones. We gave up 12 points for the season. There was always shuffling during the game, but our keys were versatility and a team first mentality. That's exactly why this GBP team has so much potential. It was fun to play then and it's fun to watch now on a slightly larger stage. ;) GPG

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Hematite's picture

October 05, 2020 at 09:15 am

I would give you a thousand thumbs up for that post.
You gave a very levelheaded approach to this game.

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Doug_In_Sandpoint's picture

October 05, 2020 at 09:45 am

“Did any of you think we were going to be unbeaten?” Um...yes. I am on record as saying we will be 19-0 and we will average around 45 points per game. Of course I also said no one would even score on us so there’s that.

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Leatherhead's picture

October 05, 2020 at 11:16 am

Details. We are still on track to 19-0 until we aren’t.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

October 05, 2020 at 09:10 am

Davante Adams in fantasy football has his status change from questionable to doubtful this morning for what that's worth.

Edit: listed as out

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DavidMichalski's picture

October 05, 2020 at 09:15 am

Ok, just in from yahoo sports: Davante is in fact saying he’s out tonight.

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Archie's picture

October 05, 2020 at 09:26 am

Pack will get as far as its defense takes it tonight and I'm afraid our D will get beat by air and by land tonight. Will Pettine survive BYE week? Depends on how well they hold up tonight. If Pettine stays, MLF may insist on scheme changes. Something is wrong with this defense this year. Too much talent to be doing nothing. Maybe Gary will have monster night and save everybody's bacon. Last year's FA pick-ups doing very little this year.

Falcons 38 Packers 24

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Coldworld's picture

October 05, 2020 at 11:05 am

Gary may not play, or maybe impacted if he does. I agree with you on the D. We have weapons to score on theirs, if not all the ones we had hoped to have. But we may not have Gary or Clark and we may have Jackson handling Ridley or Jones.

The optimist hopes our D swarms like the Colts D did last night. Youthful energy could be a good thing. Unfortunately, unless young players really step up, I see us struggling to get possession. Yes I think we can score on this D, but I also think they will try to smother MVS and Jones and force no names to beat them. We will be less efficient on O absent break out games from unknowns.

We therefore need to win the time of possession battle to give our youngsters enough chances. They will likely key on the run and MVS. Maybe Dillon contributes, but I see this as a game where we cannot rely on our O to put together consistent, long drives. The D is going to need to make enough stops fast enough to give our O time and drives. That for me will be the key to the game now. Can we give our O enough opportunities.

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stockholder's picture

October 05, 2020 at 11:01 am

With injuries comes LAZINESS! This game depends on the defense. And a lot of running. Still when things go right, You want them to Keep going right. I believe the defense can get the job done. Next week is a bye and two weeks off is a long time to think about a loss. I'll take the Packers!

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Rudedawg67's picture

October 05, 2020 at 11:03 am

The defense needs to hold Atlanta to under 30 points tonight. If Adams doesn’t play I expect them to stack the box against Jones and make MVS beat them. I know they are 0-3 but with that offense they are still dangerous and they should have all their weapons. Green Bay really needs to control the clock tonight.

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Leatherhead's picture

October 05, 2020 at 11:14 am

I agree that holding Atlanta under their average of 30 is a reasonable expectation, and I think our offense should score over 30, even with all the absences.

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