The Lass Word: Pack Could Pass on First Round Receivers

Gutey's draft board may look much different from the media versions.

The more I study and learn about the top prospects in the upcoming NFL draft, the closer I come to acknowledging a possibility that most Packer fans would consider unthinkable.  Mainly, that Green Bay won’t use either one of their first round picks on a receiver.  That they won’t address the position until the second round. 

I contemplate this after reading volumes of scouting material on the players listed by the media gurus as the top pass catchers in this class.  It seems to me that the TV talking heads and website writers are much higher on these guys than the actual scouts are.   

That’s understandable.  They want clicks.  We all do.  The star college wideouts are players the fans know and are familiar with.  The media folk are going get more eyeballs hyping up Drake London and Chris Olave, than they would giving a lot of attention to Ikem Ekwonu and Kayvon Thibodeaux.  But, of course, the scouts and general managers don’t think that way.  They could care less which prospects are the most popular.  Their mission is to identify the best football players, and rank them accordingly on their draft board. 

Those draft boards may well look drastically different than the media mock drafts that are out there.  I’m beginning to believe this is especially true at the receiver position.  I now suspect that several of these highly publicized wideouts are not ranked nearly as high in the war rooms as they are on the internet.  When you pore through some of the scouting reports, it’s not a stretch to come to the conclusion that there is not much difference between, say, the top ten receivers.  And not a single one of them carries a unanimous “can’t miss” grade, meaning taking them in the first round may not only be unwise, but unnecessary. 

For example, I’ve seen multiple mocks predicting the Pack to select Penn State receiver Jahan Dotson with one of their first round selections.  Yet most evaluators I would consider credible do not rank Dotson as a first round talent.  In the CHTV draft guide, Ross Uglem rates him no better than the eleventh best prospect at the position.  If that’s true, Dotson will likely be there in the second round when Green Bay goes on the clock.  Is there really a significant drop off from Treylon Burks to George Pickens?  Pickens will be a second round selection.  Jameson Williams flashes impressive stats, but who knows when he comes back from an ACL suffered in the national title game.  Wouldn’t a second round tandem of Skyy Moore and Alec Pierce be immediately available and possibly an even better fit?  The media darling at this position seems to be North Dakota State’s Christian Watson, who shows up in most mocks as a day one pick.  In reality, the former Bison pass catcher is more likely a second round talent, and the teams know it.  An NFL.com analysis concludes that Watson “will eventually become an average starter.”   

Regardless of whether they tab a receiver in the first or second round, the Packers will take another swing or two on day three.  Marquez Valdes-Scantling was a fifth round pick.  Donald Driver, the franchise’s all time leading pass catcher, came in round seven.   

By contrast, the scouts seem to feel there are genuine future stars at the tackle and edge rusher positions, but the number of them is finite.  Ditto for corners and safeties.  Since all of those are also areas of need for the Packers, it would not shock me if Green Bay went in those directions with the 22nd and 28th picks they own in round one.  Doing so would, no doubt, bring a torrent of criticism down upon Brian Gutekunst.  But if there’s one thing the general manager has demonstrated, it’s that he’s going to take the players he likes, regardless of public sentiment.   

He took the heat for trading down in the first round in 2018, for drafting Rashan Gary in 2019, and especially for trading up to select Jordan Love in 2020.  He doesn’t care what you think.  I like that about him.  He’s certainly not always right.  He’s missed on several picks.  But he’s got guts, and that’s a quality a person in his position has to possess. 

Hey, I get it.  We’re all still stunned by the trading away of Davante Adams.  The current roster of receivers on the team would rank as the worst in the NFL.  Surely it is the team’s greatest position of need.  We’ve got extra premium picks.  We’re excited about these big name college wideouts we’ve been hearing so much about.  It’s a no-brainer that securing at least one of them on the first night is all but mandatory, right?  Well, not if you have to reach for one, at the expense of passing up a bona fide first round value. 

When it comes to receiver in this draft, patience may be a virtue.  After all, the Packers waited until the second round to take both Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams.  Did that work out okay? 

 

 

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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.

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10 points

Comments (173)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Turophile's picture

April 22, 2022 at 06:11 am

WRs Pickens and Pierce with the second round picks are my 'draft crushes', along with OT Tyler Smith, DL Winfree, DE Logan Hall and TE Cade Otton. Since all except Otton probably go early in round two, we are going to miss out on several, or more probably (given my past track record) all of the above.

If we ended up with just three of the above (say, Smith, Pickens, Pierce), I would be delighted with the draft.

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stockholder's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:04 am

Pickens will be gone by #53. Leal will be better than Hall. And Winfrey was a NT. Hall has size. But he's a Lowrey. Pierce Fits. I like pierce.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:58 am

What are the Vegas odds of a Love trade? Winfrey can go 3 to 5 tech, not a nose. Get Van Valkenburg later on for the Lowry clone.

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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:57 pm

Shame. Shame. Shame.

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Turophile's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:27 am

stockholder:
"Pickens will be gone by #53. Leal will be better than Hall. And Winfrey was a NT. Hall has size. But he's a Lowrey. Pierce Fits. I like pierce"

I think you are right about Pickens going before 53 (which is why I advocate a trade up or down to get at least one pick in the high 30's, low 40's).

To compare Hall and Lowry ? Well, despite the fact that Lowry played pretty well this year I don't see him as the comp. Zadarius Smith is closer, because he has the size, strength and positional flexibility to move around like Z did.

If you listen to the Mark and Jason podcast on D linemen you will hear I'm not the only one who thinks that.

Also, Winfree is not really a NT, he has the first step, the strength and the long arms to fare well at end.

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stockholder's picture

April 22, 2022 at 01:05 pm

I did listen to the Pod Cast. But I believe what has been written about him first. He's a project. Do we have time for such a player? Give me the guy that can get after the QB first.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 22, 2022 at 02:03 pm

Winfrey did play NT but played more than twice as much at 3T(280 snaps to 135) and also played 51 at 5T.

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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 02:25 pm

His DC had him at NT for far too many reps. I think it was more like 35-40%..??? Just crazy, because he’s not an NT at all. He is a 3-Tech. Regardless, his run D gives me pause. We can’t take that chance. Give me
Phidarius Mathis at 3-Tech all day to GB.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 22, 2022 at 06:17 pm

I got the snap counts from PFF so I'd guess they're accurate. There's not much you can do when the called defense has you slanting away from the play.

Mathis doesn't do much for me. He had 7 sacks but only 12 hurries so it's a bit of a mirage. If he came out last year he would have been a 6th or 7th rounder. They don't need Winfrey to play the run this year, he just needs to rush the passer in passing situations. He or Hall are the picks when it come to fast twitch 3Ts that Montgomery wants.

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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 06:40 pm

You’re so right, CHESTY. Regardless what the snap totals were, Winfree shouldn’t have been used at NT, especially as much as he was.

Sometimes it’s how players project to the Pros… we have what I consider to be a solid coaching staff, and it will be interesting to see what they do. I think both Winfree and Mathis project well to the Pro level with their insane size/length….

Phidarian Mathis reminds me a lot of Richard Seymour, who only had 9 sacks at Georgia. Can’t find hurries stats from his time there. Mathis had 10.5 sacks in his career at Alabama, 16 TFL, 5 PD 3 FF and 3 FR. That’s a dynamic 3-Tech, with all the tools to get better.

We’ll see soon enough!

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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 06:53 pm

I thought Winfree projected well to DE too, Turophile, but the guy has experience there for it. He played everywhere on that line.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:29 am

Move down from the first into the top of rd two or up in the second to get more two picks and zero in on your guys. Still looking for Pierce and Watson for the WRs. Those are the big needs and OT. The rest can fill in rd three and four. Gutedkunst should be active in this draft.

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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:00 pm

Personally, Jannes, I think if we get one of them we’ll be lucky. There are plenty of others, offering different qualities, volume receivers, gadget receivers, etc. with the same speed or better that we can still land later.

You have to admit, there’s no TOUGHNESS projected with either. I want Mecole Hardman/Deebo Samuels/Anquan Bolden level toughness and proficiency added at WR for the Packers.

I want to trade down with one or both picks R1, dependent upon who is there. If we’re looking at Drake London with the 22? Trevor Penning? Devin Lloyd? Pickens? Jameson? Wyatt? Davis? Karlaftis? I wouldn’t budge off 22 or 28.

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Turophile's picture

April 25, 2022 at 04:34 pm

Agree with all you said G&G

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Roadrunner23's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:09 am

I’d be stoked if we got all the guys on your list!

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murf7777's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:39 am

My 4 round Mock without a first round WR and trade down with Detriot to #32.
22. Karlaftis
32. Kenyon Green
53. Johan Dotson
59. Jalen Tolbert
66. Nick Cross S pick up on trade
132. Braxton Jones OT
140. Tyquan Thorton WR Baylor....6'2 with 4.23 speed.

Packers built the trenches while getting some very good WR's.

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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:05 pm

I’d lose my shit if we could get all of those players, murf!

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 22, 2022 at 06:17 am

I would hope Gutey's board looks much different than the media ones! It seems like he would have a real interest in Treylon Burks but who knows if he sees value in him at 22. Supposedly the Cowboys are real interested in Burks at 24 but they have other, more pressing needs. I don't see most teams having first round grades on Watson and Pickens but I doubt they make it to 53. Hopefully there's some teams interested in moving up at the bottom of the first. Even going from 28 to 32 would bet another nice pick or two.

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Coldworld's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:15 am

We don’t control the picks by others and, I think, this year it’s particularly hard to guess some teams intentions. The Packers will have a number of players graded as early picks and reasons why specific players are targets. This year that likely weighted by ability to contribute early and what we perceive we are lacking in terms of skill set not just the best career potential.

Perhaps they see two or three standouts that might drop into range to move up. Looking at it, I don’t really see a strong likelihood or particularly obvious candidates. I think it is much more likely that we have a bunch of players similarly graded, maybe even at 22. In that circumstance, I’d trade back happily if I have a taker. We can use extra picks to strengthen competition and boost the chance to fill holes adequately and I think Gute may want the ability to jump up in later rounds to get specific targets as well. This year we need not just talent but starters and role players from this draft able to help now.

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blondy45's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:44 am

I agree Coldworld, I hopefully see a group of equally rated players in the 22-28 pick range. We will have to wait to see how the draft board falls. This will determine if the Packers need to pick a player they truly like at these positions or attempt to trade BACK at a reasonable price. I hope Gute holds his water and does not trade up.

I too agree with Ken. I am increasingly skeptical of the WR's in general for a slam dunk WR that is much better than their competitors. ALL WR's have Worts this year. I really think no WR in this class is worth the Pack trading up for in the first round. I read an article recently that stated most of this year's WR class consists of players under 200 lbs. The larger majority are shorter too. There are so many WR's rated similarly, that the Pack doesn't HAVE to pick a WR with either of their first-round picks presently.

After the first round, turn Gute loose to get "his" players. If the Pack gets studs at OTS, Edge, WRS, S, CB, or TE, I will be happy. In Gute (Gutsy) I trust. Is it Thursday night Yet?

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Stickwin's picture

April 23, 2022 at 03:52 am

If it picks 22–28 are truly similar players then choose the positions that are not deep in this draft (DL, S) and wait to get your WR, OL and EDGE in rounds 2-4.

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Renllaw's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:00 am

As long as one of those 1st rounders is a pro bowl offensive lineman I am good with waiting until round 2 for WR. We had Adams the last 3 years and couldn't get a ring with him. We need to shift focus to the run and play action passing. spreading the ball around and owning the line of scrimmage will win us a lot of games.

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NickPerry's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:05 am

Just messing around this morning on PFF mock simulator I saw that George Pickens was moving up that board, and Burks was going down. The fact Burks caught most of his passes like 3 yards from the LOS scares me a bit. He doesn't run routes real well and it going to take some time to develop if he develops at all.

My feeling? I think Gute drafts a combination of OT, Edge, DL, and Safety in the first unless a WR drops he REALLY likes and he moves up to get him. Could he make a trade with the Chargers and get in FRONT of Philly and the Saints for say Olave?

We can pump up the MLF offense and it's ability to scheme players open, but lets face it, Cobb, Watkins, and Lazard aren't scaring ANYONE. IF Olave is sitting there at 17 will Gute go get him? Or, will he just let the board come to him and take the BPA which probably will address a need whether it's a need this year or next. Gute is ALWAYS looking at today as well as tomorrow.

One last questions... What would it cost the Packers to move from 22 to 17? Pick 22 and both 4ths? Just one 4th and a 6th (Don't want to give up 92)? The Packers have 11 picks and already have a pretty damn good team. Do they really NEED 11 picks? My hope is gute is wheeling and dealing to either move up to get his guy, OR making a draft day trade for a AJ Brown or DK Metcalf.

As much as I dislike Rodgers the person, I do understand he's our absolute best chance to get to SB. Well him, a Top 5 Defense, and a kick-ass running game. BUT the clock is ticking, and it's getting louder and LOUDER with each passing day. I only know I haven't been this excited/nervous about a draft in a loooong time! I eat. sleep, and poop Green Bay Packers Football, and it is time. We MUST come out of next weekend a MUCH better team.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:35 am

Can you trust Pickens body to hold up? Burks is way over-rated in the first round. He's not Sterling Sharpe or Deebo.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:40 am

I've drafted Burks at 22 regularly in my mocks, but I've really changed over the past few weeks. I'm leaning away from almost all WR choices in the first, except I WOULD pick Jameson Williams if he dropped to 28. As far as Pickens body, I think it's worth the risk, but not at 22 and probably not at 28. I do think he's the second-best pro prospect WR after Williams.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:44 am

I would only use a three pick on Pickens.

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Minniman's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:48 am

Nick, I've asked this question twice now and ask it again - in your opinion what makes Olave a sure thing first round prospect?

As I also said previously, he and Wilson got supplanted as WR1 at OSU by Jaxon SMITH-NJIGBA - a sophomore - and Jameson Williams (Alabama) transferred out of OSU this past year.

If Olave and Wilson are successful in the NFL, then it will be because they are playing on teams with decent RB's and an established WR1.

I'm not sure if I'd be packaging up picks and trading up for what will be a WR2 or WR3 in the NFL in the first round.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:08 am

Packer fans are not used to seeing wides with their speed. I am now in the Watson camp ( 4.36) and add Pierce (4.41) both with good hands.

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LambeauPlain's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:10 am

Well, we were used to seeing MVS for 4 years...and at this fan learned to value big, fast WRs who catch the ball (which MVS struggled at).

MVS was raw too, but NFL route trees and receiving techniques can be taught. It just takes time. But Watson would do immediately what MVS did as a rookie, take the top off the D.

What he would also do immediately is what MVS didn't...jets, handoffs, screens, and be a contributor on all STs as Returner and gunner.

Based on MLFs O, Watson is more valuable to the Packers than other teams, IMO.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 11:20 am

He and Pierce have the speed and big mitts with strong hands and pluck the ball in the air, not body catchers or One Route Wonders like some of these fly and go route guys. Pierce was usually doubled and Watson beat the two deep safety looks. A very smooth guy and is perfect for LaFleur. I want both of them.

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stockholder's picture

April 22, 2022 at 04:59 pm

Kiper agrees!

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beerandbrats's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:37 am

Excellent article Ken! I love your perspective. I'd be very surprised if we didn't pick up a receiver in the first round. Glad to hear that the front office isn't getting caught up in the hype. Lot's of difficult decisions to be made in this draft!

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Handsback's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:14 am

His nickname is Gutsy for a reason....
In Green Bay's first five picks, I think one will be a WR. I would like to add that trading Adams for a 1st and 2nd round draft picks was a stroke of genius. This draft will keep the Packers competitive when they enter that season of CAP Hades.

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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:14 pm

1 bazillion percent, Handsback. I can’t wait to see what Gutekunst does next week. Still thinking 2 WRs might be the call… between 22 and 93…

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stockholder's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:18 am

I can see defense. Because you want to make up for Z. Smith. And the probability; Of Savage being a bust. Also nobody wants to pay Lowrey. Defensive players need that 5 year contract. But are they the best athletes? I prefer Weapons. No defense can stop a great offense anymore. Offense will put fans in the stadium. Not Defense. Yes you need it. And in this draft. There are No sure bets.
Other than SPEED. These players are older because of Covid. The younger player should be considered first. But I just don't see a Elite defensive player without trading up.
And if you do. You lose that depth we Lack.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:41 am

Stick to your original script and bag weapons in the passing game, a couple of OTs, Cornerback with 4.3 speed, an Edge or DT with a two pick and the return game with lower picks. Pass the ball; defend the pass. A running back in the fourth for the power game and get Horvath in the sixth.

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Rarescope's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:17 am

"No defense can stop a great offense anymore."

Say what? I thought we had a great offense last year that was totally shutdown by the 49er's defense in the playoffs. Same thing the prior year.

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stockholder's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:41 am

MVS was out. Nobody could stretch the field. What did LeFluer tell you. We need guys that can go over the top of a defense. Thats why I Know they have to have Watson. MVS dropped to many.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 11:23 am

They didn't retain MVS for a reason.

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stockholder's picture

April 22, 2022 at 01:08 pm

Injury prone. The trainers table is his bread and butter.

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Coldworld's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:15 pm

Yes, we couldn’t pay him what Kansas did.

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michael562's picture

April 22, 2022 at 11:40 am

MVS had zero drops in 2021...

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NickPerry's picture

April 23, 2022 at 02:27 am

Watson has the highest drop percentage in this draft nd that's against teams playing N. Dakota St!

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Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:41 pm

Savage is already way past being a bust. 1 up and down season doesnt negate his pro bowl caliber play from the year before. And even with that up and down season, he was still better than average.

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egbertsouse's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:29 am

Yup, get ready for the flood of undersized CBs and safeties. And running backs in early rounds. At least one guy too small to play DE and too stiff to play OLB. A leopard doesn’t change its spots.

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Coldworld's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:22 am

We don’t pick undersized CBs. Personally I don’t want an early CB this year. I think we need a true safety though and a Campbell type ILB. Zero depth at either position.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 11:27 am

I like Alontae Taylor in the third. Smart guy, 4.36 and capable to play the Dime CB spot and FS. Safety with size and speed can be had in round four-six.

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 22, 2022 at 11:16 pm

I wouldn't mind a Safety who could easily play slot CB though. There's a couple in this draft.

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Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:43 pm

Terrible take. Those undersized cbs and safeties also happen to be blazing fast and really good at what they do.

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dobber's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:35 am

I think it's highly likely the Packers pass on a WR at 22. I think they'll look for an edge/OL first. Personally, I'd be happy with that, and I'd like to see the Packers mostly take the picks they've got on days 1 and 2, but BG likes to deal up to get his guy, and if he does I think it will be an edge and not a WR.

"Gutey's draft board may look much different from the media versions."

Geez, I hope so.

5 points
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murf7777's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:50 am

Dobber, I agree, You must protect the QB and get after the QB and that will be a focus in this draft again. I suspect 3 WR’s are taken in this draft, but not necessarily in the first round. I also think one of those 3 will be a top ST player.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:50 am

That seems the logical pathway. He will probably field offers from some team to move up into #22. If the proposal is too good to pass up he may go in that direction. I had Watson at #22 to secure him and a move down from #28 to garner more two picks where the bounty lies in this draft. A beautiful mystery and all that.

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dobber's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:14 am

If BG were to move down from 22, I'd hope it would only be a couple spots. It's all a matter who turns out to be available when you're on the clock, of course.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:23 am

After pick 15 the herd tends to group together.

5 points
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PeteK's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:25 am

I agree, availability is the key. I'm sure they have it all mapped out.

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 22, 2022 at 12:24 pm

Then throw it all out the window in the moment... Lol

I just hate the thought of Gutey moving all over the board, but he's done very well, so it wouldn't surprise me if his moves land us an extra 1st next year, or better.

GPG

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Coldworld's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:45 am

One consideration is, if prospects are ranked largely equally, what alternatives exist if we pass on a player at a given position.

I think that may be a more significant determinant of which direction we go on early picks this year. WR and Edge are deep this year. IDL in particular is not, for example. OL and S may be somewhere in the middle.

However, we likely sub divide those categories, and that could confuse things. If, for example, there is a run on perimeter receivers then that could change urgency fast. This year we have to fill some holes from this draft.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:35 am

I agree Ken.
I think it's impossible to name a position (much less a player) that will be picked at 22 or 25.
It will all be in "the eyes of BG." I could easily see him taking the best "STAR" prospect at 22 or 28, depending on how much BG loves that particular player. Same thing for EDge or DL. I could see him loving Kenny-Clark-clone Travis Jones and picking him at 22 to "everybody's surprise," or Jalen Pitre as a STAR at 22, while the pundits scream "Too early!" Or maybe Kenyon Green (another Elgton Jenkins?) at 22 while the fans scream "A guard?!"

I'd be fine with those picks. I like plenty of WRs who will be around in rounds 2-7.

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stockholder's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:49 am

the problem with the WRs in 3-4 rds. is they are better suited for the slot. Pierce,tolbert,etc. will have trouble getting off the LOS. While your guys under 6 foot are better for the slot. And truly the better handed Wrs.

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Stickwin's picture

April 23, 2022 at 02:28 am

Excellent comments Pack Eyed Optimist. There are a few safeties ranked I near 30 per the Draft Network. Not much depth to the position later in the draft. I hope we get the safety/star cb at 28 (or after a slight trade down)

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mrtundra's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:01 am

As time moves on and we get closer to the Draft, I think Gute and Co won't pick a WR in the 1st round, at all. I think Safety, IDL or Edge are the more likely picks, for the first round. If Gute gets one of the top Safeties, in Round 1, it would give him more options when facing the Savage/Amos issues, at the end of next season. One of those Safeties, with the 5th year option, gives Gute security at that position for at least 5 years, if he pans out. An IDL like Leal, or Davis would be a strong addition to our DL and would allow MLF to use Kenny Clark in a broader range of schemes across the line. Kenny needed help on the D Line and Jarren Reed and a guy like Leal or Davis, would make our defensive front a formidable force to be reckoned with. Edge rusher is seen to be needed after Zadarious went to the vikings. OT is a position we can use , too, but I do not see any OT left on the board, worth a first round pick, when our picks there, roll around. I can see TE being a second round pick, along with a WR. This speculation of mine could all be for naught, if Gute and Co go BPA, no matter the position, in the first round. One thing for certain, it's fun trying to figure out who gets drafted, this time of year! GO PACK, GO!!!

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:17 am

Edge is at the very top of the first round. He can still get value from two to four. I would snag a veteran FA for the edge if his guy is not there.

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TxPackFan's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:54 am

I trust Gutey, but What I would like to see is the first 2 rounds to include a big fat IDL, LB, Edge, WR. I think Jordan Davis and Karlaftis will go too early, but if we could get a higher end ILB (who can also cover) to pair with Campbell and a guy like Travis Jones to keep the two LBs clean to make plays, then I think we would have a generational defense. And I mean generational in the NFL sense, not just for the Packers.

Every position would be elite/near-elite except for one of the 3-4 DE spots. Nobody would be able to run on us. Nobody would be able to pass on us. We would be giving up only a couple field goals a game.

Then if we used the other two of the four picks to fill in depth at Edge and add a WR??? I would be totally stoked to see that happen. To me the #2 LB is more of a need than #3 safety. Krys Barnes played 564 snaps last year, Henry Black only 283.

1 points
2
1
jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 11:33 am

Wyatt has better pass rush than Jones and pursues to the ball on a consistent basis.

-1 points
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Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:45 pm

Wyatt is likely off the Packers board completely as it was recently revealed he has major off the field concerns. Multiple domestic violence incidents.

-1 points
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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 02:03 pm

Tx, I really, really like this take. Well said, and well thought out. Totally agree. The best offense is a great defense.

0 points
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PeteK's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:31 am

I would love Davis and a WR in the first round unless a WR they have rated high falls to them in the second round. However, I don't see that happening that late in the second round.

1 points
2
1
greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:39 pm

Lol. I’ll be happy if they land quality, dynamic players to help this football team regardless of position, outside of K….

I’d be happy if they snapped RB Breece Hall at 28…

KC made the same kind of pick late R1 in Clyde Edwards-Hilaire and won the Super Bowl. Figure, if there ever was a season we might go run heavy in the Aaron Rodgers era, it is NOW! Wouldn’t it be nice to have a sure, 3 headed monster like that group: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon and Breece Hall??? I mean, with Kylin Hill allowed a little more healing time from his ACL? All 4 of them, insanely good when healthy.

Any of OT Trevor Penning, OT/OG Kenyon Greene, OT Darian Kinnard, or OT Tyler Smith and RB Breece Hall actually would make a great 1-2 punch Day1… it would be one hell of a statement.

The ability of those OL to play their punishing brands of run blocking in a power run game would be extremely beneficial, especially with Rodgers and some rookie receiving targets.

-1 points
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stockholder's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:52 am

Remember Higgins. And how every draft Guru said Gute made a mistake not drafting a WR? Doubt he does it again.

-1 points
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Minniman's picture

April 22, 2022 at 03:51 pm

That's the gamblers trap stockholder - allowing past successes and failures cloud judgement on the present.

-1 points
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Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:48 pm

Those same "gurus" said the same nonsense when the Packers drafted Rodgers. Everyone thought they were right too until they werent. Is Tee Higgins a good player? Sure. But hes not the 2nd coming of jerry rice or anything. Theres a dozen other receivers just like him in the nfl and a couple in this draft. Theres only a handful of quarterbacks with Love's arm talent and potential.

-2 points
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Nate-1980's picture

April 23, 2022 at 03:21 am

Hahaha your last sentence is hilarious, you should return to sanity..:)

2 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:24 am

I would not be surprised if they didn't draft a WR in round 1. WR is one of the top needs. They need to add more explosive playmakers tot he offense. But that doesn't mean they will draft a guy in round 1.

They have other positions that they need to add to. OL, DL, Edge all come to mind. Depending on who is available they could easily choose to beef up the defense even more. Maybe another DL and Edge player. Maybe Joe Barry wants a hybrid ILB/S for the defense. Maybe they look to add an OL. There are a lot of options to them.

Currently 4 picks in the first 2 rounds should net them some very good players.

1 points
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bigdave's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:26 am

I have always been of the opinion that you get skilled players early in the draft and linemen, linebackers, specialists later in the draft. We have done very well taking linemen all past the third round, linebackers we just suck at, and specialists you can always get...draft or no draft. I would like to see us get the best WR, CB, TE, in the first three rounds and worry about all the rest later

1 points
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bigdave's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:29 am

Just remember that David Bakhtiari was a fourth round pick

-1 points
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dobber's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:17 am

He's the outlier. Don't count on elite LTs being drafted in the 4th round as being the norm. Most high end OTs are round 1-2 picks.

6 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:00 am

I’m of the belief that the Packers have a lot more faith in their O Line core than many here seem to have. I expect us to add depth with additional potential for the future, but I believe the Packers are far less likely to do so early than many expect. This I think is somewhat fan panic over reality this year.

5 points
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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 01:58 pm

Agree. If Penning drops into their laps, I’d take him, no problem at 22, same with Kinnard at 28, but, I can’t see them going overboard at OT early. There’s great talent that really can be had all the way through Day 3. Super deep class.

-1 points
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TxPackFan's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:01 am

100% agree. I've been pounding this table for weeks, more and more after the combine as pro days came in. This draft class of WRs is not all it's being cracked up to be. It is a deep class...of above average guys. It has tons of Day 2 and Day 3 guys, but it will not be elite like the 2019 draft.

I know what a bunch of you are saying...numbers don't matter. Plenty of guys tear up the combine then fail. What matters is the tape. Well here's three realities.

Reality 1: Players and their advisors know these drills can either enhance their draft prospects or diminish them. And they practice these drills prior to the workouts. They know how they will perform. When a player knows he will do well on a drill, he will absolutely run it. It enhances his draft stock. But the reverse is also true. So when a healthy player refuses to run a drill, it's because he knows from his practices that he will do poorly. See "Reality 2" for why that matters.

Reality 2: Here'e a fun fact... There were 13 WRs who caught 90+ passes in 2021. You know, the kind of guys you want to spend a first round pick on. None of those 13 ran a 3-cone drill slower than 7.09. (Two didn't run it because of injury. Only one of the thirteen chose to not run it.) It is a metric that matters. Having quickness and agility is essential for separation. You may not separate if you have it, but you definitely won't (consistently) if you don't.

Now look at the top guys in this year's draft class. Williamson and London get a pass due to injury. Wilson? Ran an OK shuttle but refused to run the 3-cone. Olave...refused the 3-cone (and shuttle). Pickens...refused the 3-cone (and shuttle). I'll give Burks points for trying...but he ran a pedestrian 7.28. Same with Jahan Dotson. Skyy Moore came close, running a 7.13, but his size limits him. Alec Pierce likewise ran a 7.13, but he's a Day 2 pick.

The only guys in the top dozen who managed to run the type of 3-cone you're looking for was Christian Watson who refused at the combine before putting up a 6.96 at his pro day and who has had serious drop issues, Calvin Austin (6.65 - combine) who isn't even 5'8", and Alec Pierce (7.08 - PD) who is a Day 2 guy. Outside the top dozen you have the 5'8" Wan'Dale Robinson (6.99 - PD) and the 5'11" Kyle Phillips (6.75 - PD) whose other metrics are...meh. Other than Watson, none are even considered before Day 2. Maybe the best size/metric fit outside Watson is Kevin Austin (6.71 among other elite metrics at the combine) who is projected to go in Day 3. And he might end up being the best of the group. That says a lot about Austin, but it also says a lot about the group.

Reality 3: Tape can lie...or at least be deceptive. For example, I saw one draft article from one of the prominent sports media types who when talking about Pickens said, "Look at this play!!!" Had a video of Pickens blowing past his man for a long gain. And admittedly he did lay out to make a good catch. The thing is, his opponent was a 18 year old true Freshman who (unsurprisingly) used horrible technique, not a coached up NFL veteran who would have had Pickens locked down, meaning no throw to begin with, so no great catch. This is not a good CB class. Running against marginal CBs is going to make receivers look better than they actually are.

Here's one final reality: As much as fans may wish and hope for a draft class full of guys who can immediately step in, dominate, and fill a big part of the hole left by Adams' exit, it just isn't that type of class. Accept that fact and you may have a much less rage-filled draft weekend.

13 points
16
3
Bitternotsour's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:04 am

i actually feel smarter having read this. i don't scout players prior to the draft, i don't watch a lot of college football. oddly, i trust the front office and hope mark murphy stays out of the way and lets them do their jobs.

gutekunst and his staff get paid for the product, not clicks.

3 points
4
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:20 am

TxPackFan,
Great job and enjoyable well thought out read with specifics. Thanks!

I could not agree more with your last comment about fans having a rage-filled draft weekend. There always are upset fans following a draft because fans get too attached on specific players. I like the whole draft process and for many years like predicting who the team takes whether it be a specific player, or at least by a position. Long ago, I learned not to get upset by what the Packers do in the draft. They have a process with specific goals! Us fans just need to relax and let it play out. It will certainly provide lots of conversation for us fans on CCTV following the draft all the way into the regular season and beyond. :)

0 points
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TxPackFan's picture

April 22, 2022 at 04:03 pm

When you look at the rest of the league, repeated seasons of 13-3 is hard to argue with. Some inevitably will find a way to do it though. LOL

0 points
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dobber's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:31 am

"Having quickness and agility is essential for separation. You may not separate if you have it, but you definitely won't (consistently) if you don't."

Agree wholeheartedly on the 3-cone. Right now, these players are all as fast and as quick as they're ever likely to be. Look at some elite WR who ran poorly in the 40 at the Combine: Cooper Kupp, Antonio Brown. Both ran 4.6-ish 40 times at the Combine, but sub-7 in the 3-cone. Kupp was well below 7. Elite acceleration/COD guys.

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:23 pm

That’s what scares me about Burks. Slow long speed and a 7.28 3 cone. That’s a bad mix. For context, Lazard ran a 7.11, Winfree a 6.97. He’s not going to manhandle many backs at this level. Strength alone won’t cut it. It’s also a reminder not to overlook Winfree in all this.

0 points
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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:52 pm

Yeah. I don’t see him as somehow being more than Lazard, and absolutely necessary. Add in his insanely high screen use… eh. Give me diversity in WR options for our QB. I’d much prefer that. Look to the volume guys… there’s value, experience, ability there, with credence. Receipts.

I do think he has positives, but… SPEED!!! WE HAVE A NEED… FOR SPEED!!!

You’re right. Winfree was lighting it up preseason last year.

1 points
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PeteK's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:39 am

Excellent study TX. However, teams will probably be reaching for these WRs regardless.

2 points
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TxPackFan's picture

April 22, 2022 at 03:53 pm

Some teams always panic, right?

0 points
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Minniman's picture

April 22, 2022 at 04:02 pm

That's not a bad thing - if they already have a WR1, TE1 and RB tandem - and can afford to pick up a developmental WR2 with potential to be a WR1.

........ I'm just not sure which team fits that criteria!

2 points
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blondy45's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:23 am

Great post TX, 2 thumbs up. The Packer's nation should prepare themselves for one of 2 post day one scenarios.

1. No WRs selected day one: Media & fans will belly ache that the Packers do not give Rodgers weapons to win.
2. 2 WRs taken day one: The Rodger's nay-sayers will revolt complaining Rodger's is calling the shots.

The NFL draft is still geared for the future of the team. Since we pick 22 and later at the present time, no Superstars are going to be available to guarantee they will dominate day one as rookies. They may really help year one, but still need seasoning. We do not need to reach for positional types if all are similar. When the board pans out, we will make the best decisions for the Packers "future" I hope!

2 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:29 am

I agree with your take in spirit and most of the detail. Unfortunately, we put ourselves in a position that is somewhat illogical when we retained Rodgers with a largely exhausted cap. That forces us to fly in the face of both draft odds and this class. Like it or not, we have to roll the dice to give Rodgers weapons from this draft, let’s hope Gute can sift out a couple of gems. He had to to make this all worthwhile.

1 points
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Minniman's picture

April 22, 2022 at 04:12 pm

I agree that the Packers have to add more receiving weapons now - however I'm not convinced that it exclusively has to be via the draft.

I still see 2-3 WR's and possibly a TE taken in the draft (depending on the fall of the draft), but the expectation on them is to be complimentary to the system rather than legitimate difference makers.

0 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 11:47 am

The reason to move on Watson and /or Pierce at #28 or High 2nd round is the probability that they will be gone at #53. #22 for an OT who may fall or a DT like Wyatt and Winfrey is all about supply and demand. The ranking doesn't matter if they want a specific player.

2 points
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TxPackFan's picture

April 22, 2022 at 04:00 pm

I wouldn't mind trading out of the 1st with one of the picks as long as it returned a high second rounder plus an appropriate amount of extra.

Also, you might not have seen it last week. They dug up no fewer than 4 domestic violence instances on Wyatt and that's just since he turned 18. A lot of teams have dropped him from their boards. He would be off mine if I was a decision maker. It didn't get big headlines so it was easy to miss.

1 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 05:40 pm

I have followed Wyatt's story. He was in Lambeau for the 1:1 with the Brain trust. My friend's buddy worked for NFL Security and still has the connections. Mick will ask him about Wyatt. In any event, they have the Draft capital to accumulate picks in the very valuable second round. The depth there is similar to 2020. Depending how the first 21 shakes out. I really would now move on Watson with the #22, if he makes it there. The #28 can get the extra two and a three from the right deals. I like the thought of a one, three @ 2nd round and the three to really secure some guys who can fill the RT, EDGE/DT and targeting Pierce. A couple of threes can bring in the CB for the dime/star and another shot at EDGE or ILB.

0 points
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NickPerry's picture

April 23, 2022 at 02:34 am

Christian Watson at 22? Wait, what??

0 points
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stockholder's picture

April 23, 2022 at 06:07 am

Kiper picked Watson for the packers @22 now. He's top 40 on most updated sites. The concern is, some team will jump the packers, for him @28. KC sites have Watson as a Favorite.

0 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2022 at 01:11 pm

If Gutedkunst stays alert, get ready for some fireworks. If Andy Reid is working the Deebo deal this week with his two one picks and the 49rs with none, the pressure may be off the #22 to go up for Watson. He will be focused on Watson. With this rainy weather, I reviewed more film of Watson, bingo I put Vegas cash on Burks busting. I have watched Pierce for three years. I don't back a guy unless I see the IT.

-1 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2022 at 06:49 pm

Or Higher. Don't read PFF scouting reports. Watch his film, Insane burst.

0 points
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Duneslick's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:50 pm

Excellent post. Players dont run the drill if they will do poorly. Some even lose weight to speed up their times and then put in back on on pro day but dont run the drills at that weight. Also in the past proday 40 yd dashs were normally .4 or more faster. No electronic timing and coaches that want the to succeed. Cant compare pro day times to the combine.

2 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:30 am

I mentally add .05 seconds to times coming from pro days. So 4.35 becomes 4.4 flat. That may or may not be fair. Often, it does not matter much. If you ran a 6.7 three cone at a pro day, your COD is fine. If you ran a 7.15 then it gets dicey.

0 points
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White92's picture

April 23, 2022 at 06:12 am

Awesome recap. Thanks!

0 points
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PackfanNY's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:48 am

I don’t care if they don’t take a receiver in the first round. Where he takes them makes no difference to me. People forget that guys like Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver and Davante Adams were not first rounders. All that being said we have a gaping hole at the position and it’s more than just one guy. It is more important for Gute to be RIGHT on whoever he gets. That could still be a trade (although that’s probably unlikely) or in the draft.

I would only be concerned if the issue is not “resolved” in the days following the draft. Having your future HOF QB in the waning days of his career without adequate weapons would be a failure. I think it was Ron Wolf who once said his biggest regret was not surrounding Favre with more dynamic receivers. Rodgers certainly has had better weapons but let’s not see that again.

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:05 am

That is true, but Driver took 4 years to get going and neither of the others you mention contributed much in year 1. This year we need to find one, perhaps two who will. NFL readiness is going to be a major weighting factor as a result, along with how they fit our system and what we already have.

2 points
4
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PackfanNY's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:21 am

Yes and that may or not be in the FIRST round. Gute needs to find those guys. He owns it. I’ll assume he has targeted guys he thinks can contribute in Year one. A trade is also a possibility. We are about to find out.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:54 am

I have stated that I think there’s not much difference in a bunch of players possibly around in the second half of the first and the second, but any draft picking one receiver by day 3 should really raise some questions or force some kind of trade (if we can afford one).

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:33 am

I don't think those who comment forget that GB drafted those guys in the 2nd and 7th, or that Tyreek Hill was a 5th, and Antonio Brown a 6th rounder.

I think far more folks forget that those guys are outliers, and that good professionals tend to come from the first several rounds.

0 points
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Archie777's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:54 am

I think the chances are 50-50 that the GBP don't take a WR in R1, especially if 4 or more go off the board before pick 22. They could trade up from 22 if the are in love with one.

Here's an idea I'm having these days. With pick 22, GBP selects Tyler Linderbaum C from Iowa. They then move last year's #2 pick to G. Bak-Jenkins-Linderbaum-Meyers-Nijman. If Nijman can't do the job at RT, flip him and Jenkins. That would be a helluvan OL.

-6 points
1
7
Coldworld's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:09 am

Newman was actually probably better than Runyon in the last quarter of the regular season. If there’s a question, it probably should be Myers and I’m not too concerned about him if he stays healthy. Too much manufactured angst on the OL. We need depth and potential, but I suspect that comes in the mid round.

0 points
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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 02:12 pm

Man, I freaking LOVE OT Braxton Jones, if we could land him end of Day 2 or early Day 3. Bunch of others going back further too.

0 points
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Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:55 pm

Linderbaum would be an excellent pick if they still ran the outside zone run but they scrapped that for a gap based run scheme last season which is why they drafted Myers in the first place. The zone run philosophy is dead which basically eliminates Linderbaum as a candidate to be picked by the Packers since hes a quick but undersized center whos best strength is making the reach block on zone runs.

1 points
2
1
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:10 am

I'm glad someone has been reading my consistent comments about drafting quality big men in round 1 such as DL, Edge, and OT's while waiting for WR's in round 2 and in later rounds. There are only so many of these quality big players and they will play 60-70 plays per game vs having a ball thrown to a WR 5-10 times per game. From everything I can see the top (difference makers) edge rushers, and defensive linemen will be gone by early to mid-round 2. Sure there will be a 'decent' DL or Edge available at 53 but not a dominant one. Fortunately there are many good OL available in the 2nd thru 4th round. I firmly believe the Packers top needs in the draft are:

1. Edge
2. DL - not just a run stopper as we have that now in Slaton, but a guy who can also apply inside pressure collapsing the pocket.
3. OT
4. WR
5. TE
6. Safety
7. CB
8. Center

WR is important but many of us have WR fever and are over stating the importance. I cannot believe how fortunate the Packers are because this draft has an abundance of talent at Edge, WR, and OL. All the areas the Pack desperately need help. By all means Gutey should let the draft unfold watching who falls and at what positions there is a run at. I too believe there likely will be a run at the top WR's in the draft and while it will be bothersome seeing some favorite WR's (mine are Jameson, Garrett, Pickens, and Kahlil) taken it will only benefit the Pack by drafting the best available players in round 1. If the Packers can get a quality Edge, and a DL who can apply inside pass pressure the Packers will now have a dominating defense that can win SB's. This should be the priority! I certainly am not against taking one of the best OL in the draft like Kenyon Green who can play four of the five positions like Jenkins should he drop and be there. My preference is no OL in round 1 (this is an abrupt change from what I have said for the past year) and focus on the top defensive players.

I have a sense the Packers very well may move up into early round 2 as there will be a run on WR's and guys like Pickens, Watson, Pierce, and others likely will be gone by 53. While it will be painful/stressful for the Pack to wait on that WR at either 53, or in a move up to get him a good one will still be available. After selecting that first WR the pressure is off and I see them possibly taking two more as the draft unfolds in the mid-rounds and later rounds. Quality WR's such as Danny Gray, Velus Jones, and Josh Johnson as the possible 2nd/3rd Packer WR choices consistently keep showing up in the 4th, 5th, and 6th round.

Gutey, focus on those difference makers in round 1 such as Edge and DL. Gutey always surprises and I will roll with whatever he does but regardless I cannot wait!

-3 points
2
5
Coldworld's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:23 am

I don’t have WR fever. There is no Jefferson this year I’m my view. I do recognize that we have Lazard, a couple of injury prone types and that the rest are unproven.

We need two contributing WRs from this draft this year and to bolster depth. While I think that the chances of finding them don’t change much from late round one through round 2, they aren’t all that high to start with. We can’t afford to go into a win it all year without an influx of NFL ready WR talent.

I therefore favor a trade down if we can, maybe even 2 if the board doesn’t drop a plus rated player. Out of that, we get 2 WRs from rounds one and two and an edge with extra picks in the 3/4 range at least to bolster S, ILB and OL depth by and add a 3rd role type WR/returner.

To those who say we can’t use the picks I say that we have a number of holdovers that need to be cleared out as well as gaps in the depth chart. If an incumbent jumps and holds off a draft pick, great, I don’t care, we got better, but I’ve yet to see a lot of potential from the back end of our roster in any phase. Numbers this year can change that and it is needed.

3 points
3
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stockholder's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:58 am

You're wrong. Williams and Wilson are just as good. If not faster.

-1 points
2
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Coldworld's picture

April 22, 2022 at 07:28 pm

Speed alone, as Al Davis proved time and again, is no guarantee of success. Wilson is extremely unlikely to reach us and I wouldn’t touch Williams coming off his injury when we need a rookie to contribute. He’s not likely to practice before the season even if he’s healthy to start it, which isn’t certain.

1 points
1
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 22, 2022 at 01:32 pm

CW,
I believe Jameson Williams has the Jefferson & Chase like talent. I believe Garrett has Adam's type talent. Olave I am just not overly high on. Burks is Burks and I think you know what you are getting, which will be a very good WR. However, the guy who keeps climbing the boards (at least with me) is George Pickens. I believe when it is all over and done with many teams will have wished they had taken Pickens. Guy can do it all! Likely an All-Pro for many years barring injuries. I like the kid 'a lot'!

-2 points
0
2
Pantz_Burp's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:05 am

The one person that I have absolute faith in is the Gutester. Not saying I am right or anything, but...I truly believe in this guy. I would hate to play poker against him or try to get a hit off him on the mound. To me, he is unpredictable...and I likey!

I am getting my Packer shrine ready in anticipation for the draft. It's like that Heinz ketchup commercial from years ago with the song, "Anticipation" by Carly Simon.

(Shat, gotta go...Sweet Pea is calling for me)

0 points
4
4
PeteK's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:42 am

Like Walken in the Deer Hunter. hahaha

3 points
3
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Pantz_Burp's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:04 am

Yes Pete, yes! I hope Gutester cranks "Hair of the Dog" by Nazareth just before he makes the Pack's pick!

I know I will be!!!

0 points
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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 02:16 pm

Won’t be long, bud. I can’t wait till GB is on the clock and ESPN cuts to commercial…

2 points
2
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MooPack's picture

April 22, 2022 at 02:29 pm

OMG. E V E R Y YEAR

0 points
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Pantz_Burp's picture

April 22, 2022 at 03:08 pm

Spot on GG, spot on! I then always rush to see what the various outlets say about the pick in their scouting reports.

1 points
1
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Duneslick's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:53 pm

Remember he gave up a first and a fourth for love who we did not need. Could have used those 2 players the last two years

1 points
1
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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:01 am

Been saying all along, this draft is devoid of a bona fide, marquee #1WR. No Justin Jefferson, JaMar Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Marquese Brown, Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk...

Arguably, the TOP WRs in this field are on a threshold below. Maybe a Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., Van Jefferson... Chase Claypool...

Rondale Moore's and Jalen Reagor's abound. Some in this draft might be WAY better.

However, that 2nd level is extraordinarily deep, with solid talents. Just have to search them out. I do believe there are a few capable of becoming very solid WR1s. They just don't have the same buzz as what we've known in recent drafts. Some could be had as far back as Day 3.

Could EASILY see Gutekunst hitting other prime targets up top, and in filling with David Bell, Alec Pierce, Erik Ezukanma, Khalil Shakir, Calvin Austin III, Bo Melton, Tyquan Thornton or others to finish out. Could also see him waiting until pick 93 to start adding WRs... We should still be OK.

While we do lack a WR1, this draft is LOADED with role players in the WR pool...

Not what everybody wants. That's for sure. And, it doesn't fit the AR trust garbage. I'd rather we become a better overall team, not dependent on passing 60-70% of the time, which has been a recipe of failure through this decade. The solid, not marquee, but solid WR talent is deep.

For instance, Tyquan Thornton on the Packers could turn out to be a far better pro than Chris Olave. I believe Bo Melton is the most under appreciated talent on the entire board. he had the shittiest QB, and he can do it all. One of my true WR1 candidates for the future in GB. Same with David Bell.

Gutekunst will add good WR talent no matter what. Rodgers, being a 4-time MVP should be able to make some hay with that, added to Allen Lazard, Jawaan Winfree, Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers and Sammy Watkins. It's not like we don't have any WRs. Some of those added could become very special players if it all hits right.

Maybe he does snap Watson early. Dotson. Maybe London falls in our laps, or Pickens... To me, every one of these listed are solid players offering their own unique talents that could make this Packers team better. That's how deep this draft is at WR. Not the marquee players walking in, ready Day 1 of the season. But, many of these players could become very special, Day 1 starters in time.

If he hits D soley in R1, that doesn't mean we can't add some great OL talents R2, R3, R4 and beyond. This class is deep enough.

If Gutekunst can add OT Trevor Penning and DT Travis Jones off the top? Great! I'm in. Doesn't really matter. We'll get good WRs in this draft that will be of great service. I'm confident in that.

I'm all-in on Pickens at 22. I'm sure he's got the endorsement of Stokes, and our scouts certainly know him well. Pickens has the raw talent to become an All-Pro WR, if everything goes well.

I think we can just sit back and see what they do, how they do it. I'm 100% confident, not matter who they take early, we'll be a better football team.

0 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:12 am

Agreed!

-3 points
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dobber's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:58 am

Value is always balanced by cost. What did you pay--or give up--to get a guy? As you say, many look good on paper now, but what do they do in six months? ...or two years and six months?

The WR morass is always a crap shoot, and for a position that has players taken high every year, there are plenty of guys who become high-end players drafted in the middle rounds. There are some traits I'll be looking for when the Packers select their WR (3-cone, acceleration, etc.) but I'll also hope they pick guys who have been productive in their college years and have gotten it done on that stage. It's hard to have a lot of faith that a WR who was a bit-player on his college team is going to evolve into a stud in the NFL.

4 points
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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:14 am

100%.

Add in the factor that WRs taken R1 are 5x more likely to become All-Pro players than those taken in any round thereafter...

Question is, will that figure be skewed this year without the true, concensus WR1s normally found in R1? I'm thinking it will, rendering it more non-representative for 2022. Might strike gold with someone falling into our laps, or another developing beyond all expectations.

Devoid of that true WR1 talent, with the exception of maybe 1-3 players who might be R1, there are some in later rounds who are capable of becoming that, and our chances of landing a WR1, IMO, are as good late as they are early.

Total crap shoot for that.

Regardless, we will be able to load an array of diverse, solid talents who should be able to add some reasonable contributions as rookies, and we do need just that.

I like the group Day 2, and there are some TOUGH WRs in that bunch, with all the goods.

0 points
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dobber's picture

April 22, 2022 at 03:04 pm

I think that's the key: you've got to know what you're looking for, do your homework, and trust your scouting. There will be good WR on day 2 for sure.

1 points
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TxPackFan's picture

April 22, 2022 at 04:16 pm

"Arguably, the TOP WRs in this field are on a threshold below. Maybe a Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., Van Jefferson... Chase Claypool..."

And that's the TOP ones and those aren't even guaranteed. That's likely their ceiling!

I hold out hope that Williamson or London break through, but they are just dice rolls to do it. In Olave and Wilson I see a Robert Woods only a hair faster straight line. That's not too shabby, but I wouldn't give up a first for it.

1 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:26 pm

I know I'm in the minority, but I pray London goes way early. I don't think he'll be able to separate in NFL game. He may make a living being able to highpoint balls and in the redzone, but we'll see. Get him in a mismatch and he'll get his catches I'm sure, but I don't know if he'll be dominate like some seem to think? (But, what the heck do I know?) Lol

2 points
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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:51 pm

BirdDog, I think he will be fine. Had my doubts early as well. He’s one of the few in this class with a true WR1 résumé. Not a burner, but the man gets separation without any problem.

-2 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 23, 2022 at 09:52 pm

Not what I saw on film, but, like I said, what do I know.

0 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2022 at 09:37 am

Great post and we'll thought out GG!

In agreement with much but with Bell running a 4.65 40-yard that would push him down my board to maybe 4th round. TE's run 4.65 40's!

0 points
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Roadrunner23's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:12 am

Like the old “White Hair” used to say; “the good Lord only made so many of the big fellas, get the first.”
Receivers can wait till rounds 2-4

5 points
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frankthefork's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:20 am

I would be happy to live with this draft if any are Packers;
22) D Hill or [email protected] S/CB
28) T Jones, Winfrey or Hall @ DT
Defense wins championships, as the saying goes.
53) Ebiketie, Bonitto or Enagbare @ ED/olb
59) D Bell @ WR; Or Pierce
92) Ruckert, Dulcich or Otten @ TE
132) Diesch, Lucus or Rosenthal @ OT
140) Chandler or White @ RB
172) B Melton Or V Jones @ WR/KR/PR
LB-Moon, or Ross; S/CB-Carpenter; and IOL-Bruss: 7th rds.

-5 points
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greengold's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:27 am

Yes. All of that. Please, let it happen franky!

-3 points
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Duneslick's picture

April 22, 2022 at 09:55 pm

Bell way too slow

1 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2022 at 10:00 am

Way too slow! Other mid-round WR's better.

0 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 23, 2022 at 06:36 am

I like a lot of this, but those aren't my guys at 59, and I think I'd go WR at 53 if one is there. I believe there will be some guys who will develop into great EDges taken on day three--this draft has a ton of lesser-known, super-athletic and productive edges who aren't as "famous." They are perfect for our #3 EDge.

0 points
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PeteK's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:05 am

In whatever order: Davis, Watson, Ojabo, best T available, and another WR. We have enough veterans in those positions to allow a bit of time for these rookies to develop. I would be surprised if Nijman is not our starting RT for at least half the season until maybe Jenkins comes back. Yes, Cobb will be hurt, but not until mid season. I think Watkins will put together a solid season, he has to or his career is over. Lazard is solid as usual. Finally, is Rodgers that bad or just a rookie slump.

0 points
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stockholder's picture

April 22, 2022 at 05:08 pm

If they draft a slot WR. He's that bad.

2 points
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MooPack's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:08 am

The problem with the Packers not picking in the first round is more because they are a victim of their draft circumstance than no WR are worth it. They draft at the bottom of the rounds every year. They probably would have drafted a WR on a few occasions, but none they deemed worthy fell to them. There are only a small handful that usually are. So what do they do? They go BPA and usually on defense. Nothing wrong with that. But, here comes the problem and one that will continue this year if they don't take a WR. The next tier of WR are going to be gone again by their pick in the bottom of the second. So, BPA again. Then in the third and so on. So, unless you "reach" (a draft word I loath) , your going to get leap frogged every year. That hasn't been too big an issue for many years. They've had a really good WR1 and some decent WR2 for a while. Until a couple years ago. During that time it was a really good WR1 and a bunch of WR3's. Now they don't even have a WR1. So, this year is different. If they want an above average WR, and barring any trade downs in the 1st or trade ups in the 2nd (it takes two to tango), they are going to have to invest in a WR by #28 or they will be gone by #53.

Again, this year is different. This year they have two 1st's. They can still afford to go BPA with #22, most likely on D, and still get a very good WR at #28. I'm not going to get bent out of shape if they take a WR at #28 just because he was rated at #40. Really?? A difference of 10 or so picks. That's ridiculous to me. You have a very strong need, take the BPA at the need position. Or... go merrily along with lower tier WR picks and wonder why you have a QB that is scared to throw to them.

1 points
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Nate-1980's picture

April 22, 2022 at 02:47 pm

A fugging men moopack, it’s nuts to think you’ll get a good route runner with speed in the third round like some on here are saying.. We NEED instant or at the very least 2nd year contributors at wr.. Your last sentence says it all..

3 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 22, 2022 at 11:01 pm

Just because some idiot at ESPN or some beat writer has someone rated 40, doesn't mean they're rated 40 on Gutey's board. I bet Treylon Burks is higher on our board than Olave. I'll bet Pickens is much higher than Skyy Moore. I'll bet Watson and Pierce are very high on our WR board for what MaLF wants to do and because they're big enough to contribute to the blocking scheme for our running attack.

Hell, if Gutey wants to take Watson at 22 and Pierce at 28, he can damn sure do it, no matter what anyone thinks. Lol, I doubt he will, but nobody knows but Gutey himself. That is why they pay him. To make those tough decisions.

2 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 23, 2022 at 06:30 am

I still firmly believe BGs #1 and #2 WRs are Jameson Williams and George Pickins, and I wouldn't be surprised if he took one at 22, and I feel he DEFINITELY would take them at 28.
I don't know how he rates Burks and London and Watson and Wilson and Olave. I'm ready to trust his board.

0 points
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Pantz_Burp's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:21 am

Get speed at WR in rounds 3-5, for the love of God! Forget their hands, Rodger's pin point accuracy will be able to hummm it so the football gets lodged in their facemask and the speedy WR can use both hands to stiff arm.

Sooo, Gutester cranks "You Dropped a Bomb on Me" by The Gap Band before each WR or TE pick... brilliant! (Slapping myself on the back...lying, I can't reach my back...fat folds)

1 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:44 am

I am not concerned one bit about the Packers not getting good WR's in the draft if they use round 1 to go after Edge, DL, or OT. They do need to draft a WR IMO no later than in round 2, but even after all the top WR's are selected there are still very good WR's available later in the draft. If you haven't watched them you really should as these WR's are talented and available in rounds 3 thru round 6 such as:

1. Khalil Shakir who keeps showing up being available in round 3. Arguably has best hands in the draft, or at least best for circus catches. Great at contested catches. Extremely shifty after the catch for YAC!
2. Kyle Phillips - guy is very impressive and very good returner as well. He has really grown on me the more I watch is tape. No one seems to be talking much about him here at CCTV but keep an eye on him. Very impressive! Very good at contested catches, being shifty after the catch and quick. Keeps showing he will be available with the Packers 93 selection. He would be a great 3rd round WR pick-up in the draft. After selecting a WR in the 1st or 2nd round Kyle would be an awesome pick-up by the Pack in the draft. I compare him and Josh Johnson's WR game closely but Kyle would be a great addition to Special Teams, which is going to be a priority this year.
3. Calvin Austin - just a speed demon with minimal size. Can stretch the defense but great little player who would drive defenses nuts. There was a player like this about 6-8 years ago whose name I forgot but anytime the Packers played against him he scared the heck out of me anytime he had the ball. Calvin is a little bit of a luxury to draft but he would really help make the MLF offense hum!
4. Josh Johnson - his game reminds me a fair amount of Kyle Phillips, but he keeps showing up in the 6th round. He would be a great #2 or #3 WR pick-up in this draft. Very shifty making contested catches who is has good YAC!
5. Danny Gray is simply a smooth WR with good speed. Keeps showing up like a 6th round selection. Like him!
6. Velus Jones is not only fast but a good WR and great returner. Keeps showing up in rounds 5 & 6.

No matter what happens in this draft whether the way the draft falls, or what Gutey does in the draft the Packers should end up with a couple or three very good WR's that will benefit the team for years to come. While a good TE would be nice this year it isn't quite the importance with Tonyan coming back on a one-year deal. If there was a good move TE this year that was available in the mid-rounds I'd take him for development to prepare him for next season depending on Tonyan's contract situation.

-2 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 23, 2022 at 06:15 am

As president of the Khalil Shakir fan club, I approve of this message. :-D I actually expect him to go in the second round--I think GMs might value him more highly than "gurus" and fans. He also is an excellent returner!

I'd add Bo Melton to your list.

I agree that there will be VERY good WRs available even on day three, and as UDFAs I suspect.

0 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

April 22, 2022 at 10:55 am

Most rate this draft deep at OLB/Edge, OL, and WR.

OK at LB, DB, RB with some great prospects early, some diamonds in the rough late.

Thin at DL and TE but some gems atop the class.

QB, specialists...🤷‍♂️

This is a great draft for Gutey that offers flexibility to go in several productive directions to greatly improve the roster with 9-13 (?) new guys. Expect several surprises, and fan faces ranging from 😂😁😲🙄😩😡 on Saturday evening.

4 points
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dobber's picture

April 22, 2022 at 12:23 pm

BG has never been one to follow conventional wisdom regarding positions of depth in a draft...

4 points
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Ferrari-Driver's picture

April 22, 2022 at 11:03 am

Watson is intriguing to me in the second round, but I can't decide if he is a Bill Schroeder or a Jordy Nelson and that concerns me. That is why I am an "Armchair General Manager" who is vocal at times and wrong too often.

4 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 12:05 pm

Neither, he is more Lofton in his movement skills and has the 4.36 speed. Schroeder comparison would be insulting him.

0 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 22, 2022 at 01:42 pm

J,
Boy, if Watson has some Lofton game in him Gutey had better draft him at #22, or go up and get him. That is 'high' comparison! I do agree though Watson is that boom or bust guy. Potential to be a very special player, but Is he going to be that guy who looks like Tarzan but plays like Jane? Felt MVS was that guy. 6'4" with 4.37 speed, and 10.5" hands. At times you could just see the potential just oozing from him and then he drops a couple wide open bombs. Maybe he puts it all together this year for KC?

I'd take Pickens over Watson. I'd take Garrett over Watson. I think I'd take Burks over Watson. Certainly would take Jameson over Watson. After those three or four WR's Watson would most likely be my next choice at WR though I'd have to really look hard at Skyy again before I would say that with certainty.

1 points
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Ferrari-Driver's picture

April 22, 2022 at 04:04 pm

I think the guys you mentioned look very good, but I'm not sure how many or if any would be available to the Packers with their 2nd round picks. Burks is a rough and tumble guy, but I recall reading where he wasn't very good during one or more interviews. I think back to Jordy Nelson and he seemed so good on the field, in the locker room and in the community. Hard to find those type of wide receivers.

Any receiver even close to Lofton would be worth a one and a two to me. Can you imagine the Packers with James Lofton and Sterling Sharpe in their prime lining up with Rodgers pulling the trigger this year?

2 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 23, 2022 at 06:18 am

Lofton's running mate was John Jefferson, arguably the best possession receiver of that era.

0 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2022 at 01:22 pm

Add Paul Coffman to the Air Raid. Man, I loved attending those games.

0 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 22, 2022 at 08:03 pm

Watson has way better body control than MVS. He's excellent compared to MVS at high pointing and contested catches. Watson is a natural with the ball in his hands, and MVS never was...

It would not surprise me in the least if Gutey took Watson at 22 and Pickens at 28 or Burks at 22 and Watson at 28, and trading up in the 2nd to also grab Pickens. Who knows what Gutey will do, but when we've had a huge need, he's 1st signed a FA (Watkins) and then hit it in the draft multiple times.

I expect him to get 2 WRs fairly high. (22 and 53) or 28 and 53, or even 22 and 28, which actually would surprise me, but I would understand why he did it.

IDK who Gutey is pining for, but I expect WR to be address early and often.

2 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2022 at 07:00 pm

If Gutedkunst picks like you he will be Fired. Watson is the real deal. I had to go back over his film again. His father played in the Pros. A four year starting guy who fits the designer's mold of a WCO receiver. RAC, Motion, running the end around. He is not the inside slot/breakdown guy. He goes perimeter and the flys takes it to the house. Returned punts to the house. He may have to be taken higher than the #22.. I hope Gutey has him on his red phone.

0 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 23, 2022 at 06:23 am

FD, Watson doesn't compare well with those two, but Alec Pierce does! I keep comparing Pierce to Jeff Janis, but Schroeder is similar too.

Watson's ceiling is guys like Lofton and Randy Moss, but his floor is MVS productivity. I think he'll eventually be much better than MVS, but the ceiling he reaches is impossible to know at this time.

0 points
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stockholder's picture

April 22, 2022 at 11:11 am

So you want an edge. But not a trade up. After getting Peppers and Z. Smith. We kept P. Smith. So here's something to think about. All were Des. Turned OLB =. P. Smith De 76.88 271 lbs. wingspan 82.3 4.74 Forty- 24 reps -7.07 3 cone

2 points
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PatrickGB's picture

April 22, 2022 at 11:44 am

And what if GB sees a MLB/Will linebacker that is rated higher than any WR? https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2022/nakobe-dean Has been picked by many draft boards to go to GB at #28.

2 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

April 22, 2022 at 01:29 pm

There are several ILBs in the draft that would instantly improve the D: Dean, Lloyd, Chenal, Muma, Anderson.

If the first two were available in the first, take them.....if not, take any one of the remaining 3 are the second.

0 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 22, 2022 at 01:46 pm

Patrick,
I have drafted him many times in my mock drafts at #28. I would not complain at all should they draft him. Certainly would be a different twist but he would not be my first choice at 28, Really comes down to how the draft unfolds. I think an Edge rusher or DL would be priority in round 1 over ILB. Only my perspective!

2 points
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stockholder's picture

April 22, 2022 at 05:16 pm

They don't value ILB. They must fix the Edge. Arnold Ebiketie, David Ojabo, or Sam Williams. I believe Leo Chenal could fit in there too. They missed Z. Smith and Whitney Micelles last year. Now they're gone.

-2 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 22, 2022 at 05:59 pm

I would feel more comfortable with Chenal as an Edge vs inside. I like his sidekick Sanborn, as a cover LB later in the draft to replace Summers.

0 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 23, 2022 at 06:10 am

I REALLY like the idea of Nakobe Dean added to this defense; I think he becomes a three down player as the "STAR," eliminating the need for a Chandon Sullivan type. Dean wasn't just arguably the best player on that Georgia defense, he was its TRUE leader, and we haven't have a true leader on the defense since Reggie White.

I don't know if I'd pick him at 22 or 29, depending on who else is available, but if the Packers did it, I'd be TOTALLY on board.

0 points
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DocHoliday's picture

April 22, 2022 at 01:31 pm

Awesome article Ken.

Going to be a lot of WR misses for GMs this year.

0 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 23, 2022 at 09:58 pm

Lets hope not for Gutey... ; )

0 points
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wildbill's picture

April 22, 2022 at 01:33 pm

As it has been said, you listen to the fans and you’ll end up sitting in the stands with them….

1 points
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Pantz_Burp's picture

April 22, 2022 at 03:04 pm

It has also been said,"pickle make squishy bookmarker"....

1 points
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White92's picture

April 23, 2022 at 06:05 am

This is why I think relying on rookie WRs to take you to the SB is a fools errand. There is no can't miss talents and it will be a crapshoot as to which of the others that are close really pan out.

0 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2022 at 10:35 am

Gutey should draft his first WR whether in 1st round (I'd prefer not unless a top one fell), or at least no later than probably 53. If I had my preference I'd trade up early in round 2 to snag one of the WR's who has the length, speed, separation ability, catch talent, and who played against top level talent. A guy like Pickens or a Burks as example.

Now.....please do NOT tell me that the WR could NOT become a significant contributors in year 1. That is all BS and proven with WR's like Jefferson and Chase in back to back years. All it requires is for 'diva' to get his butt in camp and work with the WR. Put some extra time in with the WR. Have the WR be at ARod's shoulder everywhere he goes. Rodgers goes to lunch and the WR goes with him. At the end of the day Rodgers has to get past this trust thing and recognize a very talented WR who is more talented than anyone else on the squad. Make it happen Rodgers! I think this whole trust thing is so over blown. I think back to when the broken down Jimmy Graham was the TE. He could barely run and jump and could rarely catch a contested pass. On top of it one year he had a broken hand (thumb because he slugged someone's helmet) and had it wrapped and Rodgers continued to throw to Graham who couldn't even remotely catch the ball one handed. Is this TRUST? Even worse they kept a much more talented Tonyan on the bench. Thankfully it was MM's last season.

The Packers draft a talented WR with the aforementioned traits and he will be the most talented WR on the Packers. Rodgers needs to 'make the trust happen', but it will require him to take the initiative and work to make the trust happen. I believe the trust factor is more of a power and control thing for Rodgers more than anything else! He makes sure he forces the WR knows who is in charge and if you want the ball you have to do everything I dictate. I understand learning the WR position, the plays, and Rodger's nuances and expectations take awhile, however it isn't rocket science, particularly since you have 5-months to learn it prior to the season. For $50,000,000/year do you think Rodgers could maybe say....I'm going to really work hard with this young WR, or WR's. That this year is different than past years and it will benefit everyone including me if I reach out and build that 'trust' prior to the start of the season. No more glares and head shaking which can erode a WR's confidence if a WR missed a call, or wasn't where he was supposed to be. If this happens than Rodgers should know the fault lies equally with him as he did not take enough time to ensure the WR was properly prepared. Nope it won't happen! LOL!

0 points
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jhtobias's picture

April 23, 2022 at 03:25 pm

Please whatever you do just don't draft George Karlaftis if he falls to 22 or 28 . That man is going to fade as a edge rusher in the Nfl he is all bull rush and the Nfl is not the Big 12 . I hope he drafted before 22 so they are not tempted.

This defense is one defensive lineman , third edge rusher and a second linebacker away form being dominate. I hope gutey keeps stacking defensive studs on this team .

plus another Defensive Lineman can save this team 5 million by releasing lowery. Lowery is fine as a rotational guy but an 8 million dollar cap hit is ridiculous.

Not sure why people keep thinking packers will double dip a two high round picks 22,28,53,59 on wr . Whoever they get will be lucky if Rodgers throws them the ball anyway

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2022 at 10:48 pm

Wide receiver @ 22, Burks, Williams,Olave or Watson. Trade back 10 picks for an extra 3rd and 5th, pick UCONN
D-tackle Travis Jones, 53 And 59 Best OT and Edge. Use the early extra 3rd on a saftey, JT Woods or ? #92 is for best TE-Ruckert,Woods,Kolar. 2 picks 4th round another WR and a CB. pick 5th round DT,OT,RB, or Edge. One of our 7th round picks for Cade York LSU field goal kicker. Its past time for Mason Crosby to go because he misses too many and can't kickoff into end zone anymore. Fix special teams.Velus Jones Kick Returner, Cole Kelly QB.

0 points
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