The Lass Word: Free Agency Shopping Is Not For Sissies

The gamble has never been more costly.

Now that the combine has concluded, and the draft is still a month and a half away, we turn our attention to the next event on the NFL offseason schedule, which is free agency, pro football’s version of March Madness. Teams will shell out ridiculous sums of money for big name players, gambling they are exactly the missing piece the franchise needs to take the next step toward a Super Bowl, or resurrect them from the dead. 

The spending spree will be even more pronounced this year because of the recent record-breaking increase in salary cap space. Not only will free agents cost more, but re-signing your own key players will go up commensurately. Packers quarterback Jordan love is a good example. In 2022 Daniel Jones finally had a breakout season in his fourth year, quarterbacking the New York Giants to a 9-6-1 record and a wild card playoff victory. The Giants were able to re-sign him for four years at an average annual salary of $40 million per year. In 2023 Love also had a breakout season in his fourth year, also leading his team to a wild card victory. But all reports suggest the Packers are going to have to pay him at least $50 million per season to re-sign. That kind of inflation is what happens when the cap expands. 

With those kinds of price tags dangling from the helmets of the veteran prospects, it’s more important than ever that teams get it right, something that is certainly not guaranteed. Whenever we get to this time of year, we fans tend remember and revel in the tremendous home runs the Packers have hit. We remember Reggie White, who along with Brett Favre, enabled the green and gold to rise from the ashes of a 25 year old dumpster fire. We think of Charles Woodson, whom nobody else seemed to want at the time. All he did was lead the number one ranked defense in the league to a Super Bowl in 2010. We recall the Fab Four of 2019, Zadarius Smith, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos and Billy Turner. Along with Aaron Rodgers, they carried the team to a renaissance after two straight losing seasons. Rasul Douglas and Marcedes Lewis worked out well. 

But we forget about, or maybe we just suppress the memory, of some of the fantastic flops, the flabbergasting failures. Jimmy Graham, Muhammad Wilkerson, Sammy Watkins, Whitney Mercilus, Tavon Austin, Tyler Ervin, Devin Funchess, Christian Kirksey.  The list is long. Painful to read, isn’t it? 

The moral of the story is that free agency is, at best, a break-even proposition. Which brings us to this year. General manager Brian Gutekunst says the Packers actually have the money to get back into the supermarket and browse the shelves this year.  He’ll be shopping for a safety, a running back, a linebacker, perhaps a corner, and always linemen on both sides of the ball. There are plenty of shiny names out there to price out. There are big swings to be taken. It’s a good bet Green Bay will take a shot at one or two. Gutekunst has said the team will be “in the mix” for all the flashy names. I don’t doubt that. But I will be shocked if they outbid the league for top billing stars.  

Defensive tackle Chris Jones from the super bowl champion Chiefs is out there. So is Panthers linebacker Brian Burns, Giants running back Saquon Barkley, Chiefs corner L’Jarius Sneed. All are rated the best of the free agent lot at their positions. The best safety is the Bucs’ Antoine Winfield Jr., who was a first team All Pro selection last fall. The best tackle is Tyron Smith who has been a standout for the Cowboys.  

Now those would be big swings. To sign any of them, you would likely have to make them the highest, or nearly highest paid players in the league at their position. Would the Packers blow open the bank vault door to bring in one of those guys? That would be uncharacteristic of them. Green Bay really hasn’t signed what you would call a top rated free agent since Reggie White. To get the minister of defense, Ron Wolf had to make him the third highest paid player of any kind in NFL history. He was worth it. He was a core player on that 1996 super bowl title team. But the franchise has not taken a swing of that magnitude since. 

Let me throw some other names out at you. Jaguars DE/OLB Josh Allen, Ravens DT Justin Madubuike, Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins, Bears CB Jaylon Johnson, Vikings DE Danielle Hunter, Ravens LB Patrick Queen, Lions safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. These are all excellent players who fall maybe a notch below the top line. To be sure, they won’t be cheap either, but those are the kinds of big swings Gutekunst may feel are worth getting serious about. 

We won’t have to wait long to find out. When the green flag goes down on the start of free agency signings on March 13, most all of those names will go quickly. Kind of like midnight madness on the eve of Black Friday.  I can’t wait to see if the Packers come hard out of the starting blocks with the other spenders, or if they settle back into a soft jog and wait for the real values to reveal themselves.   

  

 

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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.

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11 points
 

Comments (100)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
T7Steve's picture

March 04, 2024 at 06:59 am

Make sure we get the FAs that we have and want from our team first. Then sign PS youngsters or guys like Rasul and Campbell trying to resurrect their careers that will come on prove it deals and be strong special teamers too.

No high dollar FAs that have played their best ball in contract years and could be bad examples to our existing youngsters.

It doesn't hurt so much to swing and miss on roll players that can help your depth. Those are the only ones that can surprise you. The high dollar ones have to hit it out of the park immediately and stay healthy just to meet expectations.

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Guam's picture

March 04, 2024 at 07:46 am

Pretty much my thoughts too T7Steve.

The problem with a "big swing" is the player has to play at an all pro or near all pro level every year of his contract to justify the cost. That doesn't often happen. Whether due to age or injury or complacency, too many "big swing" and even "medium swing" acquisitions are cut before they finish their contract, leaving the acquiring team with a big dead cap hit.

I would much rather see the Packers find De'Vondre Campbell's or Adrian Amos's in free agency than swing for the fences.

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Minniman's picture

March 04, 2024 at 12:29 pm

Case in point (and a somewhat contradictory statement to your Guam - apologies) De'vondre Campbell - he appears to be on the slide physically and mentally doesn't have that same fire to compete that he came to GB with. He's not the same person that came to GB in 2021 and played his way into a 5 year deal --> one that he's highly unlikely to complete (especially the way McDuffie is playing).

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Guam's picture

March 05, 2024 at 08:08 am

Not really contradictory. Campbell was signed to a modest one year free agent contract and played on that contract in 2021. He played at an all pro level that year The Packers then signed him to the current contract when he was a Packer, not as a free agent. He has regressed since.

I was advocating that Gute continue to sign modest free agent deals because guys like Amos and Campbell can happen and can help the team. Just be careful what kind of contracts you sign them to afterwards based on one year of performance.

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NickPerry's picture

March 04, 2024 at 07:08 am

"He’ll be shopping for a safety, a running back, a linebacker, perhaps a corner, and always linemen on both sides of the ball. There are plenty of shiny names out there to price out."

I think Gute will try and sign a Safety in FA for sure, maybe even an O-Linemen or ILB too. Matter of fact I think he HAS to sign a Safety with just Johnson and Sapp under contract IIRC. I would LOVE Winfield but I would rather sign a couple of FA's opposed to taking that one big swing.

The money being handed out is crazy. Personally, I think $50 Million Jordan Love is absolutely nuts and I'm hoping Gute doesn't sign him to something like that. Maybe I'm in a very small minority but I'd like to see Love do it for more than 9 games before handing him the bag of cash.

7 points
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murf7777's picture

March 04, 2024 at 08:35 am

NP….although I really like Love’s game, and liked the draft pick when it happened, BUT I wouldn’t have a problem waiting till mid-season and see that his last 9 games aren’t a fluke as a one year wonder. Defenses will be game planning him so let’s see what happens. Yes, it will cost a bit more but I’d rather be more sure about his abilities. That said, if it pisses him off and there would be risk of him going to free agency I’d sign him this summer. This isn’t the NBA where you can offer him more than others to keep the star with the team.

50M is what I was predicting months ago. Shoot, with the increase in salary cap, it won’t be long before we see 60M.

When talking that much money 200M+ with probably around 70% guaranteed is Not an easy decision and I’d be fine either way they negotiate because I do believe Love is the next great one at GB.

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jannes bjornson's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:53 am

The alternative is to bag a QB who can make the throws to displace him and save CAP, or bring in a veteran to fill in the blanks at a lower price point, using the 49rs model. In any event, Gutedkunst is not going to move his guy and the Pack got a year of starting caliber play out of the bargain. The Nix at #25 rumors, etc.

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murf7777's picture

March 04, 2024 at 12:05 pm

I don't think the 49'ers model is a comparison. They had a QB in Grappollo where they didn't think he could win the big games. They had a fair amount of experience with him to make a good educated judgement. There isn't enough to know whether Love can win the big games or not. You must sign him either this summer or by mid-season. Cannot allow him to hit FA.

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jannes bjornson's picture

March 04, 2024 at 01:27 pm

Mid-season. They can control his movement with the Franchise Tag. Jimmy G for a Two Pick and he got them to the Big Game, as did Purdy. See if Lynch signs him to top dollar.

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T7Steve's picture

March 04, 2024 at 08:46 am

"but I'd like to see Love do it for more than 9 games before handing him the bag of cash."

What I'd like to see is Love agreeing to a heavily incentivized contract that will earn him a ton of money when he plays well and wins, because he believes in himself and wants to keep a strong team around him. With sufficient pay guaranties that will protect him in case of injury.

Either way, the sooner they get him locked in for the long run the cheaper it will be.

We'll see if he learned what will probably happen to him if he signs a contract like the previous QBs on the team.

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golfpacker1's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:13 am

Why would he sign a contract like that when he doesn't have to? Would you? It's the price that is being paid for QBs today. Dak is rumored to be getting $60 million per. I think its is nuts too, but there is no other option. None. Sign him and get it over with as not only is it delaying the inevitable, but we can't risk losing him.

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T7Steve's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:21 am

A guy that wants allot more chances at championships, like Tom Brady, signs team friendly deals that, by lengthening his window also earns him more money in the long run.

I agree, a player shouldn't have to do that, but they signed the CBA, or at least their predecessors did, and they're stuck with this system.

Every season there're Dak doubters who wonder if he should stay around or is worth the percentage of the cap that he requires.

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golfpacker1's picture

March 04, 2024 at 11:54 am

Brady was already rich at that point in his career. After you make the money, championships are all that is important. I wish Lebron could figure that out, maybe my Lakers could win again.

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murf7777's picture

March 04, 2024 at 11:23 am

"What I'd like to see is Love agreeing to a heavily incentivized contract that will earn him a ton of money when he plays well and wins, because he believes in himself and wants to keep a strong team around him. With sufficient pay guaranties that will protect him in case of injury."

Would you do that if you could get 200M with probably about 70% guaranteed? Not many would. That's just not reality.

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T7Steve's picture

March 04, 2024 at 12:41 pm

If I really believed in myself, I would. These contract incentives can pay much more than the guaranteed amount and it doesn't count on the cap prior to the season. The main thing is to get the huge chunk of the signing bonus in the bank and laugh all the way to work.

At this level of play, they have to have confidence. If they don't have the ego, they can help their team and teammates too. A win/win.

This contract isn't the one to worry about. It's the one following this one when the Packers will start to look for and groom his replacement.

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golfpacker1's picture

March 04, 2024 at 03:50 pm

I can't imagen any athlete that would sign a contract as you describe it when they can have a contract for basically the same amount of money 70% guaranteed. Listen to what you are saying for a minute. If what you are proposing is right, then why doesn't anyone else have that kind of contract?

Love had a great year in 2023. It looks like GB got sloppy lucky and scored 3 franchise QBs in a row. Accept it and move forward. Again, the longer you wait, the more it goes up. I am glad you don't negotiate the Packers contracts.

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croatpackfan's picture

March 04, 2024 at 11:41 am

Nick, I agree with murf7777 and T7Steve.

Murf is right. If you do not pay today av 50 mill, next season it will be av 60-70 mill. It is not only the money total, it is also how you structure the contract. Jordan Love excepted 2 year deal instead 5th year option for his 2024 campaign. It is not hard to imagine that Jordan will accept a heavily incentivized contract, at least at his age, if Packers will offer good "insurance" money for possible injury/injuries they may happen. 50 mill average 4 years contract is OK if it will be properly spread over that 4 years and will include total TD, yards, INT, practice availability (like for OTAs) and enough guaranteed money in total - 60 to 70% (which would be 120, 140 mill).

We already knows that cap size will rise every year for next 5 to 6 seasons, don't we?

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cheesehead1's picture

March 04, 2024 at 11:51 am

While Love played very well at times, I would wait until mid season to see how he progresses, just to make sure.

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Fubared's picture

March 05, 2024 at 11:49 am

The only way Gutt gets a free agent is by letting go a lot of guys to free agency to clear cap space: Savage, Dillon, Jones. and there is nothing wrong with this becaue the draft has a lot of talent all over the place at low entry level pricing.

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LambeauPlain's picture

March 04, 2024 at 07:15 am

And we say the draft is a crap shoot.

I do wonder what Hafley thinks about Savage after watching all the video evidence? Then what does he say in meetings with MLF and Gutey on his analysis?

Savage's best year was his rookie season when he lived up to his first round billing. Thereafter it was up and down...mostly down, especially playing Barry Ball. He is still only 26 with top athletic skills. I wish tackling was one of his core skills. Hafley seems to be a task master when it comes to that particular skill. Can he reclaim the Savage with all that rookie promise?

Many fans seem eager to let him go. I am not eager to see him stay but would not be surprised if he does. Does Hafley want him? And does Gutey want to pay him if his DC and HC want him back?

2 points
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PeteK's picture

March 04, 2024 at 08:37 am

I would give Fuller the position/money because we already know what we have in Savage.

3 points
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golfpacker1's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:34 am

Fuller, Whitehead, and Blackmon seem to be the 3 most attractive, cost effective, younger options for GB @ Safety. I would not wait for the dust to settle though, identify who we want and even if we overpay by a small amount, get the man we want and move to the next need.

We won't see or need another FA explosion like 2019 again because we have a solid, young, roster that only has a few immediate needs to fill. Start with S and then move to LB quickly.

4 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

March 04, 2024 at 02:54 pm

The target should be Kendall Fuller who can play slot CB and Safety. It frees the draft for a move up for Q. Mitchell and will give them a bad ass secondary Savage should not be part of the conversation. He made ONE play all season vs. the Cow pokes.

1 points
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Spock's picture

March 04, 2024 at 07:30 am

I would expect the Packers to do there usual: wait for the craziness of the first few days/weeks of free agency to let teams with huge cap space sign the "next piece needed" type guys for a gazzilllion bucks, then see what lower tier guys are available and sign them to non-cap-breaking contracts. I never even "dream" about the top tier dudes coming to GB.

7 points
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Rebecca's picture

March 04, 2024 at 07:30 am

We’re grappling with the uncertainty of Darnell Savage's fit within a possible new defensive scheme. The dynamics between Coach Hafley, MLF, and Gutey likely involve a detailed analysis of Savage's strengths, weaknesses, and his fit within the team's long-term plans. Given Savage's athletic prowess and Hafley's emphasis on tackling, there's potential for improvement and reclaiming his rookie promise. However, decisions regarding Savage's future with the team will depend on whether they think he is more of a liability than an important piece of a new defensive scheme going forward.

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GregC's picture

March 04, 2024 at 08:26 am

"Jimmy Graham, Muhammad Wilkerson, Sammy Watkins, Whitney Mercilus, Tavon Austin, Tyler Ervin, Devin Funchess, Christian Kirksey. The list is long. Painful to read, isn't it?"

In what universe is that list painful to read? Those were all low level signings, you might even say bottom of the barrel, with the exception of Jimmy Graham, who was maybe mid-level.

The Packers have fared pretty well in free agency in recent years, although they haven't taken many risks. I think it's quite possible that they can sign one or two really good role players this year, and maybe even a difference maker.

6 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 04, 2024 at 08:48 am

The back end of that list were cheap options to either plug holes in season or give a player a chance to show he’s better than we had at minimal cost in dollars or cap. I’m ok with those on the 90. They either win a roster spot or they don’t. In season, the choices are often limited so you hope emergency acquisitions just hold up adequately. As long as veterans who may have upside aren’t pushing out rookies who do, cap wise or snap wise, competition is good. It’s your higher profile examples that illustrate what we need to avoid at this point.

3 points
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Johnblood27's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:17 am

Add DL Joe Johnson to the disappointment list...

5 points
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GregC's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:25 am

Going back to the Mike Sherman era there.

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Starrbrite's picture

March 04, 2024 at 06:20 pm

Yes JB, he was the biggest bust of all. And I recall celebrating when we signed him.

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golfpacker1's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:27 am

Yeah, Greg and they were all older FAs that hadn't produced for a while. We were taking a flyer on everyone of them hoping they had something left in the tank. The Jimmy Graham signing was the worst. 2 years too late on him. Everyone else were has beens.

We need a FA Safety for sure, but not the highest dollar one we can find. There are multiple good, young FAs that would fit our needs with $5 million to $10 million per year being the projections of what they will get. Almost anyone we get will be an upgrade including the less expensive ones like Chinn from the Panthers. Just because they are cheaper doesn't mean they can't make us better. We are looking for upgrades at the very least.

The FA LB need is one I would consider an older veteran who still plays at a higher level. Like Bobby Wagner or Josey Jewell if the prices were right. Because either one would upgrade us. Wagner would be the choice here because of how he would drastically change our run defense. Probably 2 years @ $6 million per.

That said I would prefer a younger long term upgrade like Devin White, Willie Gay, or Blake Cashman. Speed kills and they all have it. Price range of White the highest @ $7 to $9 million per or Cashman @ the lowest @ around $3 to $4 million per year, and Gay in the middle somewhere.

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HoppyTime's picture

March 04, 2024 at 02:40 pm

Agree, although not sure Graham was mid-level from a salary perspective. But I was most surprised to see Martellus Bennett left off the list. Now THAT was a bomb.

1 points
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Starrbrite's picture

March 04, 2024 at 06:18 pm

Right on GregC

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HarryHodag's picture

March 04, 2024 at 08:27 am

I've gone full Ted Thompson due largely to the absolutely absurd contracts being tossed around.

Russell Wilson is a great example. Hero in Seattle he signed a contract even more outrageous than Aaron Rodgers and now Denver has little choice but to cut him and take a $39 million cap hit. The Packers have little choice but to cut David B. and take a huge cap hit. While there have been some good finds for the Packers in free agency there have been many contracts that didn't work out. A player wants generational money for the final contracts but it is not good for the team when age starts to cut ability.

As the old fitness campaign once resonated, "Stop The Insanity".

The Packers offense this year is great example of what happens when a group of young, enthusiastic players get coached up and want to win. Adding old, cynical veterans to that mix(at a high price) would have been a negative.
Stay young and more cost effective. The major colleges now are producing NFL ready players by the droves. Why throw good money to older players who simply want a new condo in the Bahamas?

7 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

March 04, 2024 at 08:54 am

To be fair, they may also be looking to fund their future health care.

5 points
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murf7777's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:01 am

“absolutely absurd contracts”.

Harry, They might be absurd amounts in your mind, but since the start of the salary cap era, the contracts have been substantial (absurd in your thoughts) and a % of what the NFL makes. It’s just that the NFL is even more popular and making much more money than just annual inflation. If the NFL makes more money so do the players. They deserve to make more money, that’s called free enterprise and is fair. Why are they absurd in your mind?

There’s always been new contracts that break the prior month or year. Sure, over the years there’s been a shift in which position get what % of the pie. IE: RB’s in the 90- 2000’s compared to now. But, the total contract sizes compared to the salary caps have been fairly similar.

GB, with Wolf and since, rarely played big in FA. I’ve always thought Thompson’s approach was the right one. And, if you study all the most winningest franchises you will find that they rarely play in the day one of the FA’s. Like the draft, it’s about finding the diamonds in the rough.

I continue to agree with your last statement….”stay young and more cost effective”. Sign your own that you know will play great in your system. Don’t play big in other teams FA.

6 points
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HarryHodag's picture

March 04, 2024 at 01:09 pm

Your first paragraph highlights was I call the 'relative' theory, i.e., since someone gets paid 'x', then someone else deserves to get paid that. Yes, the NFL makes an absurd amount of money(thanks to all of us), but I'm not sure a 20-something deserves to get generational wealth just because he can throw a football. The counter argument is the market and interest sets the value, but in this case, the market is askew.
It hit me one day when I saw a bottom-dweller in the Brewers bullpen was making one million bucks a year to pitch every few days in a child's game. I added up what I earned over 50 years of work and it didn't equal a million dollars.
Couldn't he make it on $250,000 a year?
We all adore the sports figures so much we've lost sight that they've become a type of false idol. $60 million a year to throw a football?

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murf7777's picture

March 04, 2024 at 03:51 pm

Yes, he does deserve that because that is what the market is willing to pay. Your right thou it is all relative. It's relative to what the owners make. Again, it's free enterprise. It sounds like sour grapes to me. Now, if you want the opposite live in Russia.

2 points
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HarryHodag's picture

March 04, 2024 at 04:26 pm

Sorry, I have no interest in Russia. I merely want the public to realize that the money they are paying these folks is getting really out of whack.

The free market has it's flaws and this is one of them. Criticizing 'the market' doesn't mean you subscribe to any other system. It merely means free people have differences of opinion.

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Bitternotsour's picture

March 04, 2024 at 07:02 pm

Harry, you got paid what you were worth. That's what is going to happen with Jordan too. Jordan, like you probably, will earn his money by the sweat of his brow, not because he was born into it, in fact, his life story suggests that he should never have made it and he still persevered. How many guys have thrown away their talent, or not been able to navigate the work necessary to succeed. Why can you not celebrate that? The kid is an entertainer in the most popular television entertainment in history.

I'm going to guess here - you probably don't buy NFL branded or team approved gear. You likely watch games on free tv or at the most on a cable or streaming platform, so your net outlay is sitting through some commercials. You post here, a free site, and get a lot of nice returns on that. Maybe you have season tickets, but the face value of your tickets is far exceeded by the aftermarket value, so you'd likely be a net winner if you sold your tickets. See, people get valued and paid based on their ability to negotiate their deals. My suggestion is that you regard Jordan as one of the good guys and one who is making his way based on the remarkable talent he brings.

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x24's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:18 am

And let's not forget that the "group of young, enthusiastic players" really came about because the bill came due from 2019 spending spree...

We did not have the cap space to be active in free agency last year- the consequence of spending by kicking the can down the road

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Starrbrite's picture

March 04, 2024 at 06:23 pm

C’mon Harry, live a little. We could have had M. Lynch for a 4th rnd dear pick. Free agency is fun.

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Coldworld's picture

March 04, 2024 at 08:28 am

I’m fine with a FA move at a position where we feel we need a player who has experience and, while not an all star, is competent as a starter. Amos was a good example of such a pick up. For me the obvious positions would be at safety, particularly FS because rookies often struggle there. Possibly also at ILB and Slot.

However, only if that is backed up by adding options behind to compete and hopefully surpass in future. Buying competence now to try to find time to develop excellence in future is a sound strategy. Bandaging temporarily is not unless in a last dance scenario. We are not.

Being in an upward curve, the ideal is to have players who can join that and be better in future too. Those kind of FAs are hard to find. Miscast, not good fits for their prior team or simply not given opportunities. There’s a gamble in believing that, but the cost ought to be lower as a result. If that’s what Gute means, then that’s no bad thing. It’s better than just treading water by bringing back players who have not worked out over an extended period.

Big signings to me seem at least a year premature. The objective here is surely to try to add talent and flexibility through development for 2025 and beyond. Injuries and emergence happen over a season. Keep powder dry till we really know what to aim at.

As an adjunct, if the rumors on kick off rule changes are accurate and come to fruition, then Nixon’s value just got multiplied significantly. To a point where I doubt he’s an option at slot. It also means we will have to seriously look for a KR replacement and roster that player, adding to the complexity of needs. That could be a route in for a draft pick we might not otherwise have considered regardless of position on O or D.

5 points
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Rebecca's picture

March 04, 2024 at 08:38 am

The Packers have a strategic approach to addressing team needs through free agency, emphasizing the importance of adding experienced players who can serve as competent starters while also fostering competition and development within the team. Seeking players who can contribute to the team's upward trajectory and potentially improve in the future is indeed a challenging task, but it can pay dividends in the long run. Balancing cost-effectiveness with potential upside is key, and it appears you value Gutekunst's approach of exploring options that may not have fully succeeded in previous environments but could thrive within the team's system. This approach aligns with the team's goals of sustained success rather than short-term fixes.

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PeteK's picture

March 04, 2024 at 08:50 am

I fully agree with your plan of action, but the pic, name, and the front office type writing seems to be AI. LOL

6 points
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GregC's picture

March 04, 2024 at 08:58 am

Looks fishy to me too. Who is this mysterious Rebecca?

3 points
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Johnblood27's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:22 am

Don't ask her to get you a sandwich and a coffee...

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T7Steve's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:44 am

I thought that was funny, but someone downed you. Was it anti-feminist or something? Or Anti AI?

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Coldworld's picture

March 04, 2024 at 10:53 am

I hope that’s not the future of AI! Sounds so sagacious but what does it actually say? Consultant speech I’ve listened to (and maybe crafted a time or two) for decades. Missing 10 pages of nicely designed charts. Oh, now I truly fear AI.

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Bitternotsour's picture

March 04, 2024 at 11:13 am

they probably have a link for the charts.

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Johnblood27's picture

March 04, 2024 at 04:55 pm

I think I told her once that she had a 'nice comment' and to then make herself useful and get me a sandwich and a coffee.

I was roundly down-voted and harassed to the point that I felt like a minority in the 60's.

There is the story of Rebecca and the lunch break...

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stockholder's picture

March 04, 2024 at 10:22 am

So who took over Bird dog?
He always had something to say at draft time.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 04, 2024 at 10:54 am

He’s posted a couple of times recently. Thought maybe we’d see more now.

1 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

March 04, 2024 at 01:11 pm

Mostly on ACME now

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

March 04, 2024 at 12:01 pm

I am curious as to what happened to GreenGold too. He was very knowledgeable as well.

1 points
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LeotisHarris's picture

March 04, 2024 at 03:31 pm

Nah, Pete. Rebecca has been around for a number of years and often has good insights. Her intellect and ability to express herself rankles some of the old guard. I'm not a fan of her new profile pic either, but I always appreciate her candor and ability to slap a mouth-breather upside the head when needed.

She may have simply channeled her inner consultant on this post. It's likely best if we continue to move forward with the work with due diligence to create client-ready deliverables and results that endure.

4 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

March 04, 2024 at 04:05 pm

don't undersell the importance of forward thinking and let's all of us level set as we move forward into the next quarter.

2 points
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Starrbrite's picture

March 04, 2024 at 06:27 pm

Rebecca, are you saying short term fixes can’t/won’t/never lead to success?

0 points
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PeteK's picture

March 04, 2024 at 08:46 am

Melton was a very good returner in college.

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:00 am

I am a big fan of Melton’s potential and wanted him in the draft (we passed on him early in the 7th and took Toure 29 spots later). However, that’s something of an overstatement.

He returned 11 kicks and 5 punts in 5 college seasons. He did put up decent averages, and scored once on a punt (his first ever I think), but that isn’t shocking given his speed. He was never the primary returner of either type.

I would definitely expect them to try him there, but I’m not going to bet the farm on him being someone whom we want doing it full time in the pros. Reed is probably the most experienced, but I’m not keen on him being out first choice KR (or PR for that matter).

2 points
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golfpacker1's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:42 am

A good punt returner needs to have great hands to be able to field the ball cleanly, everytime. Second he needs to be quick enough to make the first guy miss. Being fast is a bonus. Melton would be a better option to use than risking Reed.

2 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 04, 2024 at 10:01 am

I do not want Reed doing it and even more so punt returning, which carries more physical risk, as a non-emergency option. Right now he’s the only one I see as having a claim to be proven on the roster, particularly as a punt returner though.

While I think Melton has the open field elusiveness, but the key is the catch security (which is as much a mental attribute as a physical one) and field awareness (position and onrushers). Only when that is present does the athleticism become a difference maker.

Until that is proven Melton is a possible not a probable and thus I don’t think we should bank on him being out returner.

1 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

March 04, 2024 at 10:07 am

Draft Anthony Gould.

-1 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 04, 2024 at 10:13 am

No way I would seek to add him (or similar) this year simply due to what we have in place unless this change materializes. However, he is a very good example how the change potentially changes our priorities with respect to the type of player that we may need to look at in the draft. It does not have to be a WR. It could be a guy like Xavier Worthy. Tiny RB gadget player with 4.21 40 who returned punts and some kicks.

2 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

March 04, 2024 at 01:19 pm

Gould was the Top return guy last season, 1st team, All-American 2022, as a punt returner. He can shred zones also and averaged over 16.0 yards/Catch for the Beavers. You do not want Reed taking any more beatings and Nixon is probably on his way out the door, given his so-so play as a slot CB.

-1 points
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GregC's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:37 am

I agree overall, but if there is a chance to add a difference maker this year, even at a high price, I say go for it. If it works out, the player will be around for at least a few years anyway. Reggie White and Charles Woodson were both brought in a few years before the Packers peaked and won championships.

2 points
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T7Steve's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:47 am

Sonds like San Diego has to cut some big money from their D. There're some good ones there, just not at safety.

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jannes bjornson's picture

March 04, 2024 at 10:10 am

See who remains on The List after teams exercise the Franchise Tags, or re-sign their guys. I advocate for Kendall Fuller as the slot CB. Winfield will not make the marketplace. Draft 2-3 safeties from this class.

1 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

March 04, 2024 at 08:47 am

Not for sissies? Thanks for the warning. I’ll steer clear.

7 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

March 04, 2024 at 08:52 am

I'm out

4 points
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stockholder's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:48 am

All for the Glory of Gute.
No Thanks.
The packers can't go a full year now,
without renegotiating someone.
And if we made the playoffs with what we had.
Why Live like the Rich and Famous.
I like our chances. The draft is the Future.
Heck I'd even trade Love for a boat load of picks.
Why pay outrageous money when Bahk
showed you what can happen.

-7 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 04, 2024 at 10:27 am

The one thing you never ever do is trade a plausible franchise QB. That’s a team killer for a decade or more and a career killer for coaches and GMs. Wolf was on the right end of that kind of trade and it made him and the Packers too.

8 points
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Starrbrite's picture

March 04, 2024 at 06:30 pm

Exactly CW.

0 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

March 04, 2024 at 10:37 am

Peter Cetera?
Yesterday, David Bowie, and today, this?
Gotta know your music if ya wanna hang with the big kids here!

2 points
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golfpacker1's picture

March 04, 2024 at 09:54 am

There are always some in the crowd who don't think it through by saying lets just not worry about the consequences and go gung-ho full speed ahead, spend the most money and buy the best option. Not caring about the impact that has on the financial future of a team. Let's just throw caution to the wind and be in cap hell again in 2 short years, when all these young guys will be needing new contracts.

Or the posters that think by trading your future high picks so we can pick the flavor of the week player and mortgage the future for him. Both approaches are flawed because not only might the player get hurt or be a bust, but the potential animosity it would create on the team could be destructive. Management will give that guy the farm, but me they want to play for pennies.

We are a young and getting younger team with great potential. How about we take a deep breath, identify what players will fill our needs and upgrade the positions. Figure out what we can afford to pay them, and aggressively go after them when FA opens up. I would just as soon sign 3 good players for lesser dollars, that can upgrade and improve our team in multiple areas, than shoot the wad on one player at the top of the list, and hope he comes thru for us.

3 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

March 04, 2024 at 10:00 am

With the proposed kick off rule changes, FAs with return ability have added value. (More K/O returns may be on the way but ironically with increased safety to prevent concussions and violent collisions.)

Nixon, of course, comes to mind. The cost to keep him in Green Bay at an affordable price may go up. As a slot he's serviceable...as a returner he's a stud.

Also adds value to draft prospects with return ability. DeJean, for example. Tremendous returner.

3 points
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Leatherhead's picture

March 04, 2024 at 12:16 pm

No. Don't return kicks or punts. Fair catch, get the bottom of your roster off the field and put Love & Co. on the field.

DeJean is a real good corner, just like Reed was a real good receiver last year. How are you going to feel when they get hurt trying to get 8 yards on a return? Just Say No.

The other team is giving you the ball. There's no need to return it. Let your offensive stars do what they get paid for instead of giving the bottom of the roster a chance to screw things up.

0 points
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Starrbrite's picture

March 04, 2024 at 06:31 pm

My sentiments as well Lambeau.

0 points
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fthisJack's picture

March 04, 2024 at 10:07 am

FA is definitely not for sissies so I believe Gutie when he says he will shape the roster with all phases. I believe that they will draft according to what they do in FA. One area is the LB situation which is not a draft hotbed. I would love to see the Pack sign Cashman from the Texans to a reasonable contract and solidify that room. I also think they will sign a S since that is a weak draft class. So I would look for them to spend more to acquire a proven safety in McKinney from the Giants. They have filled some holes on the roster before the draft.

Select DeJean in one if he is available, Wright with 1st pick in 2, Mahogany with second pick in 2. Maybe another CB in 3 to allow DeJean to play various roles. Then BPA with second pick in 3 prefferably a DL or edge guy. Then fill out the rest of the roster with the remaining picks. This is my dream scenario going into the 2024 season.

0 points
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T7Steve's picture

March 04, 2024 at 12:51 pm

We ignored the O-line last season. Do you think we can get away with it two years in a row?

1 points
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fthisJack's picture

March 05, 2024 at 07:01 am

Mahogany is a G/T.

0 points
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NFLfan's picture

March 04, 2024 at 10:31 am

I'm on team' let's wait for more of a sample size before we pay Love $50 M.'

4 points
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Alberta_Packer's picture

March 04, 2024 at 11:37 am

Logically - that would seem to be the most prudent decision. However it seems to come down to risk analysis. If wait another year - then Love has another boffo year - hitting free agency - assuring a 60M+ per year salary. Furthermore, possibly losing him. OR - signing him this off season to a 50M X 5 yrs. extension - beginning 25/26 - calculating to a 6 yr. avg. annual salary of approximately 43.8M per year.

Part of any analysis should be the statistic that only 30% of the QBs selected in the first round attain their projected success. Conversely, 70% do not. It seems that Love, even if it's in the early stage, is one of the 30% who is likely to succeed. So really, the front office is wagering 250+M - that there is a higher probability that he continues to have success - than not. No doubt a huge bet but with a staggering return if they are correct. In other words, not a sissy decision.

2 points
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T7Steve's picture

March 04, 2024 at 12:54 pm

Very well put Alberta, thanks.

1 points
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GregC's picture

March 04, 2024 at 12:48 pm

Love essentially signed a one-year prove-it extension last May, and he proved it in a big way. He will get his big contract in a couple months, as he should. He's done everything that was asked of him and then some. Stiffing him now would send a terrible message to the rest of the team. I suspect that the parameters of the next contract were discussed last May when Love signed that extension. That deal was signed for the benefit of both parties, not just so the Packers could have Love for an extra year on the cheap.

3 points
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golfpacker1's picture

March 04, 2024 at 12:11 pm

Every year the QB price is going to go up. Love's third contract might be $75 million a year. Better to lock him up now. What do you suppose the bust % is of the top 6 draft QBs this year? 50%? Or the % of how many become stars. Do we really want to chance losing Love and starting over? Does anyone think our backup QB is a QB1?

You would think Caleb Williams will be great for sure, but we are talking the Bears. They could screw up Peyton Manning.

4 points
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Leatherhead's picture

March 04, 2024 at 12:12 pm

I don't think there is any need for any desperation reaches in FA.

Our gameday offense is in place. We're anticipating improving the Oline and replacing Dillon in the draft. The receiving corps looks to be impressive.

Our gameday defense is mostly set. The DL looks strong. The linebacking with Walker and Campbell and McDuffie looks solid.

We have 3 CBs under contract who are at least decent......Alexander, Stokes, Valentine. Each of them should be more impactful than last year, when they were either a rookie or on the bench injured. And of course, we got rid of the problem, Joe Barry, so we should have a big improvement in our Cornerbacks this year over last ear. Anything less is certainly an indictment of somebody for something.(yeah, kind of being sarcastic there.)

I don't agree with just blowing up the secondary, and I'm wondering if we'll resign some guys. Ford played well last year. Nixon played very well on defense down the stretch. I've been rewatching some of our games from last year, towards the end of the season, and they are certainly two guys who could be on the gameday roster.

Also, rewatching the Dallas playoff game, you can't help but notice that Savage is in on quite a few plays. I think he's going to get a bigger offer in FA than the Packers are going to want to match, but maybe not. Same with Nixon. Maybe the Packers are letting these guys test the FA waters to determine their value and we'll resign some of them. That has happened before.

We can draft a safety, a good one, but starting two rookies at safety is just asking to have them run into each other. So if want to add a quality FA, that'd be the spot.

Budda Baker, technically, is not a FA, but he is in the last year of his contract, and essentially it's $14M in salary this year. That's what we'd have to assume to TRADE for him. AZ gets rid of a high dollar guy who isn't part of their future AND a pretty good draft pick. That's a win for them. Green Bay gets him for something like pick #58. We rework his contract and he's part of the defense for the next four years.

If you put him on the back end along with somebody like Nubin and you could make that work

-2 points
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Starrbrite's picture

March 04, 2024 at 02:01 pm

LH—Baker is the dude I want —let’s get’em.

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

March 04, 2024 at 04:04 pm

Or you could just sign a younger McKinney. And keep the pick so you could draft a top RB.
That's a better plan Leatherhead.

There are about 5 guys we can sign that make us a ton better without wasting a draft pick.

I have seen McKinney projected to get anywhere from $10 to $14 million per year with most guesses closer to #$10 million per year. That would be a great value for someone that talented, and 24 years old.

1 points
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Starrbrite's picture

March 04, 2024 at 06:13 pm

That’s true Golf. However, with Baker we have a known and excellent commodity.

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

March 05, 2024 at 09:14 am

And he costs more per year. And we lose draft picks. And he is older. How is that a better business move in any way, shape, or form?

0 points
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MitchAnthony's picture

March 04, 2024 at 12:26 pm

Jimmy Graham, Muhammad Wilkerson, Sammy Watkins, Whitney Mercilus, Tavon Austin, Tyler Ervin, Devin Funchess, Christian Kirksey. The list is long. Painful to read, isn’t it?

Jimmy Graham is particularly painful to read on that list. I'm probably in the camp of many who think the exit of Jordy Nelson was not handled well by Green Bay. Jordy would have likely accepted a team friendly deal and stayed in Green Bay and continued to play very well for the Packers but he was snubbed. The result was giving Jimmy Graham premium TE money for very little on-field production. Jimmy Graham came to town and robbed the bank and bought a helicopter for his collection.

Want another painful name from past free agency that escaped everyone else's notice? Marty Bennett. The locker room cancer that was Marty Bennett collected some pay checks in Green bay as well. Boy, the Packers were desperate there.

2 points
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Starrbrite's picture

March 04, 2024 at 01:55 pm

Geez folks live a little—even it it’s in your imagination; this ain’t your cash.
I’m always amazed at the people who want to hide their (other people’s) money under a rock —time is short—live a little.
The cap worriers, sitting in their basement, using a D-cell flashlight to illuminate and calculate their cap sheets. Eating from a tuna can and listening to a radio that reports only bad weather.
I remember the euphoria when we signed Reggie White. Excitement is fun.
We don’t have to buy the Porter House, but we can order the Ribeye. For heaven’s sake, forget the chicken salad and order a steak.
Go Packers!!!

0 points
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GregC's picture

March 04, 2024 at 02:44 pm

My thoughts exactly! Fans get timid sometimes. It reminds me of how so many fans were okay with Mercedes Lewis as the starting TE because he was a good blocker. Having him in there was like running a speedboat with the anchor deployed.

0 points
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Starrbrite's picture

March 04, 2024 at 06:10 pm

Excellent Greg. I figured I would receive a 100 down votes.

0 points
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jhtobias's picture

March 04, 2024 at 03:48 pm

People om this site commenting Love should have to sign a contract that has numerous incentive goals ???? Do you folks live in la la land.

Jordan bet on himself and won.

3 options are avaliable ;

1. He will get paid near or above 50 million a yr
2. Trade him and start over . That should go well with everyone
3. Do nothing make him play on his 1 yr contract this yr . That should also go extremely well.

Wake up for those who think this is fantady football

-1 points
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Packman60's picture

March 04, 2024 at 06:27 pm

The author's comparison of Jordan Love to Daniel Jones is laughable. Their stats weren't even in the same zip code much less the same neighbor hood. The only comparison between the two were the win / loss record and winning a playoff game. Jordan has earned his payday and the cost of a franchise quarterback is only going up. If they could lock him into a 5 year deal I would do so without thinking twice about it.

3 points
3
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NFLfan's picture

March 05, 2024 at 08:29 am

His contract expires in several months-there is good faith on both sides. He's not going anywhere.

1 points
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Fubared's picture

March 05, 2024 at 11:45 am

One thing that holds for all teams, while there are going to be some top free agents hitting the market, some already out there, they wont come cheap. Any team with a cap problem probably just looks on with a wish and a prayer, but other teams with big cap space and do a lot to improve themselves immedialtly, especially on the defensive side, with a top free agent or two.
I dont see the Pack being players at all.

1 points
1
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