The Lass Word: First Round? Pack Should Trade Down

This year quantity may bring quality..

The season ends in January.  But our passionate interest in our team does not.  So we spend better than three months getting excited about the NFL draft, and now it is upon us. 

I would never claim to be any kind of expert.  But I do enjoy reading all of the prospect analyses, especially from scouts and coaches.  Many of the opinions on a given player are diverse, and some are deliberately misleading in an attempt to manipulate the media into deceiving the competition.  But if you read enough of these things, you can form some general conclusions. 

This is not a good first round draft 

Beyond the top seven or eight prospects, there are few if any players that truly deserve a first round grade.  The league and the national media outlets naturally have to promote their draft coverage, so they over hype several players to build anticipation for their telecasts.  That’s particularly true of the quarterbacks, the ultimate glamour position.  Don’t be surprised if the predicted QB feeding frenzy at the top of the draft doesn’t happen.  The most credible scouts don’t seem to be nearly as high on guys like CJ Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson as the media people are. 

It’s a weak first round draft for safeties, defensive linemen, and receivers.  Just so-so for tackles. 

However, it is a very good second and third round draft 

There figures to be very little difference in quality between players selected between roughly spots 10 through 50 or 60.   These will all be players that will be good to very good, and may even spawn a few stars.  For this reason, the Packers would be wise to trade out of the fifteenth pick and go back to the late first round, or pick up extra second and third rounders.   If the trigger ever actually gets pulled on the Aaron Rodgers trade, Green Bay could end up with three picks in round two and a couple more in round three. 

This means the Packers would not have to do a first round reach for a tight end or a safety.  They wouldn’t get a tight end like Michael Mayer or Dalton Kincaid, but they can get a Sam LaPorta or a Luke Musgrave or a Darnell Washington, any of whom will be very close, if not just as good, as the top two.  They wouldn’t get a safety like Brian Branch, but they can get someone like Jordan Battle or Sydney Brown, who may be even better in the long term. 

Trading down would likely mean missing out on receivers like Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Jordan Addison, but there will be guys like Jalin Hyatt and Josh Downs who can be everything Green Bay needs.  These second and third round prospects will come cheaper, will be easier to sign, and I believe will be just as productive as the high profile players.  There should be several teams eager to acquire that fifteenth pick, maybe trying to get in on a quarterback who has slid down.   I know it will be a bummer for us fans if our team goes through opening night without making a pick, but trading down is the right move. 

A few other draft thoughts: 

Most over-hyped player 

It has to be Jaxon Smith-Njigba.  I’ve seen where many Packer fans are convinced this guy is a combination of Don Hutson, Sterling Sharpe and Davante Adams.   But I have seen more than one pro scout evaluating him as a bit undersized, can only play the slot, not fast enough, and nowhere near the talent level of former Ohio State teammates Garrett WIlson and Chris Olave.  He only played 60 snaps last season because of a hamstring injury.  PFF originally ranked him no better than the fifth best receiver prospect.  He’s going to be just okay, but he would not be a value pick at number 15 for the Packers. 

My Day Three Draft Crush 

Running back Dewayne McBride.  From the CHTV Draft Guide: 

“General Info: McBride is a squat, compact runner who blends speed and power. He shows very little hesitation at the line of scrimmage, and he uses his quick burst to plant his foot in the ground and hit the hole with violence. The UAB product is a bowling ball of a runner, who explodes through the line of scrimmage and runs through arm tackles. 

Position Skills: He had monster production at the Conference USA level, rushing for 3,084 yards and 32 touchdowns as a two-year starter. His 7.35 yards per carry as a junior was also among the FBS leaders in 2022, and his near 156-yard average per game on the ground was the top in the nation.” 

AJ Dillon is one of the most popular players on Green Bay’s team, but he is entering the final year of his deal and if he has a good year he will be difficult for the cap-strapped Packers to re-sign.  I love watching this kid McBride.  He is the perfect replacement for Dillon and he should be there in the late rounds.  He wasn’t used as a pass catcher in college, but neither was Dillon.   

Developmental Quarterback Pick 

My favorite day three prospect is Dorian Thompson-Robinson out of UCLA.  He’s a project for sure but he’s got the skill set of the modern day NFL signal caller.  Threw for just under 3,000 yards last season, with 25 touchdowns.  He also ran for 720 yards.  A good under study for Jordan Love. 

Let the draft begin.  May your favorite player be called by the green and gold this weekend.  

-----------------------------------

Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.

4 points
 

Comments (155)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
pantz_bURp's picture

April 24, 2023 at 06:18 am

Hard to predict to trade down, up or stand pat until the reality of the draft is playing out.

Gute (along with the efforts of the scouting dept) will land us a biggon!

Sir Gute, how big of a G-fish did you land in the G-boat?

He doesn't need to say a thing. His smile and outstretched arms (see above pic) say it all.

Get the net Boyz, FISH ON! Nicely done...they will be talking about this in the Gutenheim Museum forever...

What you do in the draft ECHOES AN ETERNITY. :)

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croatpackfan's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:29 am

"His smile and outstretched arms (see above pic) say it all."

Brian Gutelunst didn't showing the size of the fish. He is showing how large is fish eye!

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pantz_bURp's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:50 am

Yes!!! I love your attitude Croat PF! 😁✌️💪👌

2 points
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NickPerry's picture

April 24, 2023 at 06:46 am

Just did a draft on PFF and I did trade down...With the Giants. I traded 15 for 25 and the Giants (cough) 3rd round pick, PLUS next years 1st. I still got Dalton Kincaid and with the extra 3rd I got from the Giants I took Jordan Battle. Obviously this means absolutely nothing, but I agree with Ken, it's a great draft to trade back.

If Gute could pull a similar deal like he did with the Saints in 2018 when he traded way back in the round and then back up but still ended up with the extra 1st in 2019 I would be in favor. Depending how far back they trade back, maybe they trade back up or stay put but with all the needs this team has, AND a first year starting QB, IMO the Packers NEED to draft weapons.

YES, I know they need an edge player, OT, Safeties as in MULTIPLE. They also need TE's (multiple) and at least two WR's. Whatever Gute does it's my hope he gets a TE and a WR in the first and with one of the 2nd's (assuming Rodgers is traded). The Packers CAN'T go into the 2023 season and expect Love to win with JUST Watson, Doubs, and Toure.

If somehow Gute could come out of this with say Michael Meyer and Hyatt for example, or Kincaid and Rice with maybe a Sam LaPorta mixed in in the first example I'd be a HAPPY, happy, Packers fan. IF, the Packers don't get more weapons it's not going to matter if the Defense suddenly pulls their head out of their butts.

They HAVE to set up Love to succeed or at least have a chance. I mean the absolute worst thing they could do to this kid is ignore the skill positions...AGAIN!

6 points
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HawkPacker's picture

April 24, 2023 at 06:56 am

'If somehow Gute could come out of this with say Michael Meyer and Hyatt for example, or Kincaid and Rice with maybe a Sam LaPorta mixed in in the first example I'd be a HAPPY, happy, Packers fan.'

I would agree Nick based on what I have read. I have followed LaPorta closely over the last few years and he has great leadership traits as well and has a very good locker room presence as well.

3 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:33 am

Great trade! I’ve done several simulators myself and the trade offers are CRAZY. I routinely get offered 5 or more picks even for GB’s second rounder.However, for the purpose of a mock I never accept any trade that offers multiple picks in the 24 draft. Not like I get to come back next year and use them! (Maybe Gute is thinking the same way.)
Wouldn’t you love an honest answer to “how warm are Gute’s, MLF’s, and Barry’s seats?”

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:35 am

I think we know how warm the seats are. LaFleur has an excellent record with GB and one down year with rookie/injured WRs, QB with a broken thumb is not going to make them think about replacing him. Change often sets a franchise back, not forward and they surely want to see what LaFleur's coaching looks like when it's not a 15+ year vet at the helm, making his own play-calling decisions. They want to see if he is right or wrong about Barry's defense trending up and what he does about it if they don't look good. Barry's seat should be a little warm, but Gutey has had a lot of success getting GB competitive again after the drop-off at the end of the McCarthy and Thompson era. I'm sure Murphy also wants to see how Gutey builds a team that's not built around a hall of fame talent at QB. I don't think anybody expects a bit year this year; it is a re-set at the very least. Gutey will get a chance to show whether the Love pick was justified and if not, he'll get a chance to draft his replacement, maybe with an extra first round pick from the Jets to package for next year.

Picks in 2024 is not a bad idea for this franchise as they work out salary cap woes and build a younger core group of players.

4 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 12:31 pm

“Picks in 2024 is not a bad idea for this franchise as they work out salary cap woes and build a younger core group of players.”

I agree, WC.

Gutekunst & his staff are well tuned into the strengths & weaknesses of the 2024 draft, and may choose to trade a 2023 R2 for a 2024 R1 or more.

As a certified card carrying draft geek, I always want to load for bear to win it all, regardless of our circumstances.

The more reasoned approach given AR trade scenario, with JL a first year QB1 is a two year minimum window.

Any huge successes prior is pure gravy, and a testament to player procurement & development.

While under duress? Hells to the yes! Lol.

2 points
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NickPerry's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:10 am

"Wouldn’t you love an honest answer to “how warm are Gute’s, MLF’s, and Barry’s seats?”

I'm a Gute fan for the most part. I think he's been handcuffed by Murphy but IMO had he been able to run the Packers the way Wolf and Thompson did, I think he does okay.

I don't see how Barry came back in the first place but because he did I think it automatically puts more heat on MLF's ass and rightfully so.

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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2023 at 01:58 pm

We are going to see whether LaFleur has a real claim to that record this season. If he doesn’t look good and nor do his coaches, I’m not seeing that the record will help much. Maybe if a healthy Rodgers is truly bad. I’d say LaFleur has a huge opportunity to show he was held back or show himself out of the door this year.

1 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 02:20 pm

I think LaFleur will wind up owning a better record, despite his early HC gaffes, under duress.

He’s got a white hot hand to play in QB1 Jordan Love. The sky’s going to be the limit there, especially with JL having been immersed in the same system continuously for 3 years running.

The whole Barry thing? I suspect the changes we’re seeing on D are more the brainchild of both Gutekunst & LaFleur, and Barry was hired to run/build a kind of hybrid of Dungy’s Cover 2 and Seattle’s Legion of Boom.

We have to keep in mind Murphy saddled LaFleur with Pettine, who had his own talent/player types. IMO, this is why we’ve heard nor seen little to no blowback on Joe Barry as DC from his superiors.

Bisaccia? Football shaped mana from heaven with legs.

I seriously think we’re gonna win a shit ton of games.

1 points
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DoubleJ's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:53 am

"If somehow Gute could come out of this with say Michael Meyer and Hyatt for example, or Kincaid and Rice with maybe a Sam LaPorta mixed in in the first example I'd be a HAPPY, happy, Packers fan."

I personally am not high on Meyer at all. He will just be murdering everyone on the field. Mayer on the other hand I also am not a fan of his. I think his lack of any top flight athletic trait will hurt him in the NFL and he has maxed out already. I think the best combination will be Washington and Hyatt. Have a 3WR 1TE set with Doubs wide left, Washington slot left, Hyatt slot right, and Watson wide left. Then Doubs run a dig, Washington and Watson run deep posts, and Hyatt run deep corner routes. Teams will not know what to do. My later TE of choice is Kuntz from Old Dominion. He is a slightly taller and faster Washington.

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T7Steve's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:38 am

"Doubs wide left, Washington slot left, Hyatt slot right, and Watson wide left. Then Doubs run a dig, Washington and Watson run deep posts, and Hyatt run deep corner routes. Teams will not know what to do."

They'll try to get to the passer, so they'll only have to worry about the dig.

2 points
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DoubleJ's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:43 am

Packers would still have 6 players to block with the RB staying in to help. The amount of speed on the outside the opposition would HAVE to respect that. If they didn't it is almost an assured TD.

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LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:09 am

Every play works on paper or it wouldn't be on paper. Getting 11 players to make it work on the field as 11 opposing players work to make sure it fails ensures NO play is a certain win.

4 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 02:35 pm

I wasn’t high on TE Michael Mayer, but I am now. He’s as complete an in-line TE as you’ll find with the resume to prove it.

No one had more deep receptions playing TE last season. No one. We need just that very player right now.

I’m a monster Darnell Washington fan too, but, Mayer might be even or a nudge or two ahead.

His level of production is nothing to sneeze at, as both a blocker and receiver. Because of that, I consider him far more dangerous to opposing Ds than any move TE.

The Packers need to leverage that kind of deception in their scheme. We don’t have that now.

0 points
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HawkPacker's picture

April 24, 2023 at 06:51 am

This article shows that we really don't know much when it comes to drafting, or at least I do not.

If a player is hyped enough, all of the sudden, he is a fantastic player.

Should be an interesting draft.

I hope Guty trades down as well based on all that I have read but again, I really have no idea why.

10 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:34 am

Nobody REALLY knows! And the more certain they are just shows their ignorance.

4 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:26 am

Most draft experts say the same thing as Ken Lass as I have read this over and over everywhere. This draft is really strong between pick 10 and pick 60. I really think you could add the whole 3rd round as well. Thats why anybody doing this for a living says the smart move for Green Bay, because of our huge pile of needs, is to trade back for more picks. If GB could trade their way to 4 picks in the first 2 rounds, or 6 picks in the first 3 rounds, we are way ahead in the team rebuild process.

Other than safety and D-line, this draft is really strong at positions we need the most, TE, Edge, WR. especially with what we would have to choose from. Trading back and waiting isn't as much fun as making that #15 pick but it would sure pay dividends with what we stand to gain. If we get the wild card of picks #42 & #43, We could end up with a dangerous amount of young, cheap talent for next year. And that not only supercharges the rebuild of the team, but also fixing our salary cap woes.

0 points
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dobber's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:47 am

"If a player is hyped enough, all of the sudden, he is a fantastic player."

In virtually every case, teams are drafting resumes -- just like when your place of business hires some kid fresh out of college, you're projecting that kid into what your firm does and what it needs. Sometimes you have very specific roles and a very defined place for that person, sometimes you're speculating on an opportunity to diversify and do something different.

In the end, you're always looking at the bottom line down the road.

7 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 12:34 pm

Perfect analogy…

1 points
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croatpackfan's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:34 am

Same here HawkPacker!

1 points
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coolhand's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:40 am

I hope Guty trades down as well based on all that I have read but again, I really have no idea why.

I think it depends on what they get in the Rodgers trade. Get the 2 seconds or a second and 3rd and I keep the 15 pick and go BPA.

0 points
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Savage57's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:03 am

You have to assume that if the consensus is the first round is weak, and the second and third are full of value opportunities, then everyone would be trying to trade out of the first to stockpile picks.

I guess it's why trying to figure out the strategy within the strategy is what keeps fans interested.

10 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:37 am

Yes! You beat me to it!
But hopefully there’s a team that targeted a certain player and is willing to deal.

I wonder what the current price for Russel Wilson is. For a large part of last season, the number of bathrooms in his home outnumbered his TD passes. Ouch!

7 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 12:45 pm

Style points awarded.

1 points
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DoubleJ's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:59 am

"You have to assume that if the consensus is the first round is weak, and the second and third are full of value opportunities, then everyone would be trying to trade out of the first to stockpile picks."

All it takes is for a team to be higher on a player to move up in the draft. Best bet for the Packers to be able to trade back is if a QB starts to fall. I don't think any team is going to move up for an OT or WR.

5 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:37 am

Some teams are going to try to trade up, That is a given. Bijan and Hooker are just 2 players that will be very attractive for teams to move up for. If Levis or Richardson are there when we pick, it could get very interesting in a hurry. Lets take advantage of teams that fall in love with a prospect that they think will fix everything.

1 points
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ko40489's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:03 am

It's the job of the GM and his staff to manage the draft. They will be talking about all the wonderful picks they made. The media often seems to think that its job is to promote drama! So they will be debating every minute detail and second guessing everything the front office says. The truth is, we just won't know the reality until these guys are on the field for a few years. So...everybody relax!

3 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:46 am

“Everybody relax!”

You’re no fun. 😉

7 points
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dobber's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:16 am

"It's the job of the GM and his staff to manage the draft. They will be talking about all the wonderful picks they made."

No GM ever goes to the presser after a pick, shrugs, and says, "eh, it was the best I could do."

9 points
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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:37 am

All so true. All so reasonable. But people need to argue (express themselves) in the chats, and some take themselves very, very seriously.

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:43 am

Are you Aaron Rodgers?

0 points
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stockholder's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:25 am

Most of the guys you've shown. I wouldn't draft.
Why draft a bust? I'm against a trade down.
Either they give up a major Return.
Or stay away from their garbage.
I remember the Ricky Williams Trade.
Wait for the Gm thats nuts.
The NFL draft is a media sell job now.
Give me Guarantees!
The strengths of this draft, fit the Packers.
We don't Need a Thing that requires a wait.
The later picks are for that!
And when you figure in the coaching for each.
Take the sure thing @15.
My sure things are Robinson (if he Falls)
The Best OL if he falls.
The edge - Nolan Smith.
A CB who can play anywhere.
These are the fits. - Speed!
You can't teach it.

-3 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:39 am

“Give me Guarantees!”

Ok!
1. Taxes
2. Death
3. Sorry, no such thing in the NFL draft

😉

15 points
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Ferrari-Driver's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:38 am

I think a "sore back" seems likely. At 18, I felt invincible, now at my age...my back hurts. Like your post.

1 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 01:23 pm

Yeah, that sucks.
(I’m 19 also, just like you!)

0 points
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DoubleJ's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:03 am

Reggie Bush was the #2 overall pick in 2006 by the Saints. They didn't trade into that draft slot but they did trade him to the Dolphins in 2011.

Bijan Robinson is not worth an R1 pick. No running back is worth an R1 pick as the difference in quality between an R1 and R5 is usually minimal.

The OT class sucks this year for R1. At best they are late R1 players in most drafts but overall they are R2/3 OTs instead. Don't waste your #15 pick on that.

0 points
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stockholder's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:22 am

Yes- It was Ricky Williams .
Reggie Bush RB vs Mario Williams DE

I think Cody Mauch out of ND is a good fit later.
The Ohio State players have the longest Arms.

2 points
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DoubleJ's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:21 am

Mauch is an interesting player. He is probably a guard in the NFL, maybe a RT. However, overall IOL is really not worth R1 picks.

1 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 01:47 pm

SNL style: “What’s up with that?!!!” on those Buckeyes?

Agree on Mauch. No earlier than 45.

0 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:02 am

I tend to agree with all of this. Trading down to miss out on an OT that could man your LT of RT for the next decade seems foolish.

Same with EDGE. Same with CB. Same with WR to some extent, though that position is another story entirely due to its higher bust rate. EDGE factors in possibly more so in terms of bust rate. We could lump DT in here too. WR, EDGE and DT historically have both the biggest bust rates and the biggest win rates in R1.

The safest pick up top is OT. Like it or not, our “rebuild” began a year or more ago. We’re still in it.

Keep your high slot for the greatest return on investment. The Packers can land at least 3 very dynamic players without making a single trade.

I think it is highly likely Bakhtiari is traded post June 1. You’ll know that’s the case if we take Paris Johnson, Broderick Jones or Darnell Wright.

1 points
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croatpackfan's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:41 am

greengold,

go listen "opemmike" podcast with David Bakhtiari. He sounds like he is willing to finish his career as Packers. But, he admitts it does not depends only on him.

1 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:57 am

That was his “but I love the Packers” out. That’s all it was…

Oh, I listened very carefully.

“They are going to get everything they want.”

Not, “we.”

-2 points
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barutanseijin's picture

April 24, 2023 at 03:17 pm

EDGE

Energy Deficient Gridiron Equalizer ?

Eternally Deprecated & Grammatically Egregious ?

1 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:47 am

Stockholder, those opinions are all wet. #15 is a long way from a sure thing. Trading back is the smartest business move. Thank God you are not in charge of our draft or the Packers.

1 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 12:14 pm

I respectfully disagree. Everybody’s different and has their own stuff. stockholder knows his draft stuff. He’s spot on with much of it.

Instincts, speed, size, physical gifts, football player mentality & availability all are huge factors up here, and elite players will most likely drop into our laps up here.

With how many QBs up top 10? Four with Young, Levis, Stroud & Richardson.

Add your obligatory EDGE players in Will Anderson Jr., Tyree Wilson up there, along with DT Jalen Carter…

CBs Gonzo, Porter Jr. & Witherspoon, OT Skoronski…

We’re at 11.

OG Torrence?
EDGE Smith?

Do we make a pick at 13?

*** Crux of Biscuit Notice***

Broderick Jones?
Paris Johnson Jr?
Quentin Johnston?
Lucas Van Ness?
Calijah Kancey?
Darnell Wright?

Can we actually get two of these cats?

MEOWWWWW!!!!

-1 points
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Packerpasty's picture

April 24, 2023 at 06:03 pm

some of you guys wouldnt agree with stockholder if he quoted your own posts word for word...grow up, every one has an opinion, none of you are an NFL GM that I know of...

0 points
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stockholder's picture

April 25, 2023 at 05:38 am

They now have the #13 pick.
You don't go up, then back.
I wrote Edge in earlier.

Van Ess is rising-
Which is interesting;
considering he was A Part -Timer.

My Target was Nolan Smith if;-
The Patriots didn't grab him first.

0 points
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NJ-RICK's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:26 am

Packer MGT will probably screw up the AR12 trade with the Jets. I would rather he just retire then accept very little from the Jets in compensation. We were already embarrassed when we traded Farve to the jets for a 3rd round pick. What a joke that was. Packer MGT needs to be released.

-5 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:04 am

How will they screw this trade up?

3 points
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dobber's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:20 am

" I would rather he just retire then accept very little from the Jets in compensation. "

Maybe the Jets will offer the Packers compensation for other players after they retire, too...but, you know, very little.

6 points
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MooPack's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:39 am

Trade down in the 1st this year depending on who falls. Do not trade down in any other round, especially the 2nd and 3rd.

10 points
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DoubleJ's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:05 am

Depends on who is available when you are picking. If there are multiple players available on your board for 45 and a team offers their R3 or R4 to move up from 50 then it is a good decision.

2 points
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dobber's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:21 am

Agreed.

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 24, 2023 at 12:01 pm

Doublej. I think some people are just against the IDEA of trading back. It just makes sense. Your trade of 45 for 50 while gaining a 3rd or 4th is a perfect example. It doesn't matter if its round one or round six. If you can gain 2 or 3 picks by moving back why wouldn't you.

It's like people just block the other persons opinion if it isn't the same as theirs. They don't want to see the other sides point of view no matter what. Sadly it a big problem all over.

1 points
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PhantomII's picture

April 24, 2023 at 12:25 pm

NO! Top tier TE and Top tier WR... in the 2nd by type. LaPorta /Washington / Hyatt / Rice / Tillman / Mingo. Any 2 of these is a win, by type is 2x win. It depends on Jets trade. Personally I like BOTH 2nd rounders and done or swap 13 for 15 and both 2's. If we trade down then we could get a 2 and still get a late 1 and make all that happen.
Last season we sucked because we had no legit 1-2 WR and our OL was a shambles early in the year and AR injury did not help. More weapons on Offense PLEASE. FA for defense next season and most of 24' draft also. GPG

1 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 02:43 pm

Geez Moo! Here I wanted to trade 45 down for more, more more.

Whoops! You just made me think of something. I think we get more Jets picks than just about anybody, but the vision of Gutekunst packaging 42 & 43

1050 points.

I wonder if he works a deal with WAS to get #16 overall??? That thought had never occurred to me, but… I think we all could see that as a possibility.

0 points
0
0
WD's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:41 am

I am not sure if I agree with the premise that you can get the same quality of player in rounds 2) and 3) that you get in mid round one. It all depends on what is there. lets assume we do not trade down and we do not have any picks from the Jets. The worst case scenario would be 1)Miles Murphy or possibly another premier Edge. 2)TE Sam la Porta and 3) WR Jonathon Mingo. 4) A Safety from Illinois (possibly trade up here if available). The later rounds address the O and D lines. Stetson Bennet QB in round 7 along with Kicker Jake Babo. If we get a pick from the Jets we could consider trading down but only after a cost benefit analysis based on probabilities as there are no certainties.

-2 points
2
4
StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:43 am

WD: "I am not sure if I agree with the premise that you can get the same quality of player in rounds 2) and 3) that you get in mid round one."

WD, that's ok. I will be sure for you.

I am sure you cannot get the same quality of player in rounds 2 and 3 that you can get in mid round one.

Since the fist NFL draft in 1936, 27,450 men have been drafted - 1,149 QBs, 5,113 RBs, 2,236 WRs, 1,073 TEs, 7,921 OL, 3,222 DL, 2,706 LBs, 3,563 DBs, 426 special teams, and 49 undefined as to position .

In this Ruling Class owned diversion of Bread and Circus, Violent entertainment for the masses, of the 27,450 men chosen, 17,000 have played, 2,066 were 1st team all pro at least once, and 289 were inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame.

The probability of choosing a NFL Hall of Famer or even a 1 time first team All pro is higher in the first round than the second round, higher in the second round than the third round, higher in the third round than the fourth round, etc.

Most of the time these probabilities will play out, unless:

1) the player sustains a serious injury that could not have been easily predicted
2) some type of tragedy occurs - which is more and more probable in this society as those in control consolidate more wealth and power
3) the GM and/or his/her scouting staff is incompetent

A smaller factor is coaching. The coach is usually a convenient scape goat for incompetent management.

And the probability of choosing an all pro in the last picks of the draft is akin to wining the lottery.

That said, the idea being put forth, but mostly poorly explained by most on here, is that it is better to have acquired 2 average players or 1 good and 1 average player (through pick trading) for your 53 man roster in lower rounds than 1 excellent player in the first round or that it is better to have acquired 4 average players in lower rounds (though pick trading) than 1 excellent player in the first round and 1 good player in the 2nd round, and so on. These are the calculations and the most of what you have on here is people that are just repeating what the Billionaire owned wage slaves and talking heads write and pass around and have never seen more than a few minutes of the actual player playing.

-6 points
5
11
Packer_Fan's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:48 am

In total agreement. I think Smith-N... is a big risk.

So trade down, Get more picks. The whole draft is risky, at a 30 - 50 percent sucess rate. So get as many picks as passible. Especially in the top 60.

5 points
8
3
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:51 am

I only had two players in my Tier One (and one of them is Jalen Carter, who has issues) and 9 more in Tier Two if one bumps 4 QBs up into that tier. Then about 10 in Tier 3 and 15 more or so in Tier 4, mostly with GB's preferences in mind due to some deficiency in height, weight, speed or injury. Couple of guys like Mazi Smith, whose tape I love but I don't like players who refuse to run a 40, 10, 3-cone, shuttle, bench, at both the combine and their pro days go in Tier 3, and perhaps 4. I am not going to rely on a year-old article called Feldman's freaks for his numbers, which should have made him a top prospect, nor do I like the attitude he had in some of his interviews.

7 points
7
0
HawkPacker's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:13 am

TGR, thanks for the information. I had not heard all of the negative issues with Mazi Smith. After reading this, I would agree.

Why would a draftee not get tested unless he would expect the results to be 'not so great'.

4 points
4
0
fthisJack's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:33 am

And there was the gun related thing that UM kept quiet. I think he's a bad dude.

4 points
4
0
Tundraboy's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:56 am

In the The NFL that could be a good thing but it could most likely be a very bad thing. Pass.

0 points
1
1
LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:38 am

Early in my management career, a mentor gave me two principles to follow when hiring talent.

1. The best indicator of future performance are past results.

2. "Can Do", Will Do" evaluation. If hired, "Can" they do the job? Then, are you confident they "Will" do the job?

Dexter, DT underwhelmed in principle 1...Mazi Smith has red flags principle 2.

4 points
5
1
greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:12 am

Totally agree on Mazi Smith. He’s off my list entirely. A lot of dust with zero production.

5 points
5
0
golfpacker1's picture

April 24, 2023 at 12:12 pm

The tape doesn't lie for Mazi, as it doesn't for most prospects. He is my first DT. And most 5 star athletes have that same I am more important than you attitude. You don't see many humble ones.

Its the same with Mayer. He didn't test great so should we just flush him. 3 years of outstanding production at a big school playing the best competition is more important than the Underwear Olympics. Mayer probably isn't Kelsey or Kittle, but he is damn good and will start from day one and play 12 years. Plus he is 100 times better than anything we have now.

Mazi will too.

-1 points
1
2
TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:52 am

This is for the “experts”:

EDIT: this is in reference to the 2023 DRAFT (otherwise it’s way too easy!)

Tell me RIGHT NOW the names of at least 10 first round busts.

Tell me RIGHT NOW the names of at least 10 players that will be picked in round 4 or later that will be the next Richard Sherman, George Kittle, Terrell Davis, Tom Brady, and Donald Driver.

I’d guess that if an expert throws out 20 names and gets 5 of them right, he’d consider himself clairvoyant. That’s 25%.
If Gute is only right with 25% of HIS picks, the torches and pitchforks will be everywhere!

(Oh, and to show what a good sport I am, I’ll share this: I predicted GB would throw the ball on every single offensive play last year. I was correct about 57% of the time. 57% > 25%)

9 points
9
0
dobber's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:05 am

"Tell me RIGHT NOW the names of at least 10 first round busts."

Tony Mandarich...
Ryan Leaf...
Bryan Bosworth...
.
.
.

5 points
6
1
TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:43 am

Well done, Mr. Loophole!
😄
PS Cliff Clavin has never been in my kitchen
PPS I have NEVER thrown an INT in the NFL

3 points
4
1
dobber's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:47 am

"PS Cliff Clavin has never been in my kitchen"

Now there's a pop culture reference that many will miss!

3 points
3
0
TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:52 am

Yeah, I’m old!

1 points
1
0
Tundraboy's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:59 am

Lmao. Mandarich topped my list!

2 points
2
0
Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:04 am

Derek Sherrod,
Justin Harrell,
Brian Brohm (ok, Round 2, but that bad)
Jamal Reynolds,
Ahmed Carroll,
Rich Campbell.
Alkilli Smith
Any Bears QB pick (actually probably could have just said this)

That’s all I can think of.

3 points
3
0
Lphill's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:16 am

Justin Harrell

1 points
1
0
greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:14 am

Damarious Randal
Ha Ha Clinton Dix
Datone Jones
Nick Perry
Derek Sherrod
Justin Harrell
Ahmad Carroll
Nick Barnett
Javon Walker
Jamal Reynolds

0 points
0
0
TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:54 am

Nick Barnett??

0 points
0
0
greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:41 am

Yeah. An R1 ILB who lacked the instincts to make plays at that crucial point of impact.

Cleaning up in catch up mode after the play has already been won by the opponent never counts in my book.

How is a super fast ILB always late to make the play? Lack of instincts.

This is actually a really good point regarding S Brian Branch. He has the instincts to make the plays. Deciding whether he can make the same impact in the Pro game, where everyone is faster is the question.

Micah Hyde vibes? Quite possibly.

Branch is all football player, like Hyde. I would not argue a Branch pick too harshly because of this. I’d be guarded to the max, but would be willing to wait and see.

0 points
1
1
greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:52 am

“Beyond the top seven or eight prospects, there are few if any players that truly deserve a first round grade.”

What???

If there’s “very little difference in quality between players selected between roughly spots 10 through 50 or 60,” how it then possible the Packers taking Michael Mayer could be considered “a first round reach for a tight end or a safety?”

Every pick after 8 or 10 is a reach?

That’s kind of bonkers.

Every draft has tiers within rounds, often running into the adjacent round.

7 points
9
2
TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:02 am

I’d love to hear if NFL teams grade prospects by “rounds”. (“He’s a first, he’s a third”)

OR, if it IS like that, maybe it’s something like X number of players get an “8” or higher, X number get “7’, etc.
Maybe there are only 10 guys with an 8, 37 guys with a 7, etc. That scenario seems plausible.

Maybe GB won’t trade out of 15. But maybe some QB hungry teams push some nice players down towards them.

4 points
4
0
dobber's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:47 am

"I’d love to hear if NFL teams grade prospects by “rounds”. "

Heard at a combine interview--"OK, Mr. Stroud, I'm going to start 'row-row-row your boat' and you just jump in where you feel the timing is about right. Do you mind if I record?"

2 points
4
2
RCPackerFan's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:01 am

My draft crush right now is to trade down and pick up another 2nd or possibly 3rd round pick. I want as many 2nd round picks as I can get.

I feel like if the Packers can come out of this draft with 1-1st and 3-2nd round picks, that it is a game changer for this team. I feel like if they can add 4 players that high to this roster I feel like that is going to shape the future of this team. I don't feel great about drafting a TE at 15, but if they can get one in the mid 20's I feel much better. I also feel like there are a handful of pass rushers in the mid 20's I feel better about taking. Trading down makes the most sense to me. But you have to have a trade partner.

If they can come away with a WR, TE, Edge and DL in the first 2 rounds I would be thrilled!

WR I feel like 2nd round, maybe 3rd is where they will have the best luck with. But it wouldn't surprise me if they went WR in the first round. A lot of the WR's don't really fit the Packers typical size. So it will be interesting to see if they look at one of the smaller WR's. Zay Flowers Jordan Addison, Josh Down, Tyler Scott. All of which are under 6' tall and under 180 lbs.

TE/Edge I feel like they could go 1st or 2nd round.
TE there are a number of guys that would be upgrades for our offense. But there are some questions with all of these guys as well. Mayer doesn't have elite measurables, Kincaid coming off back injury, Washington wasn't the primary TE at Georgia, LaPorta is smaller, Musgrave missed most of last year due to injury. That is why i see 2nd round more likely.
Edge there are some guys that aren't the size they normally have gone. Would they go for one of those guys? One guy to keep an eye on is Nolan Smith. He is an explosive guy, and from Georgia. So they could very well be drafting him in the 1st round. The last 3 1st round picks of the Packers have been from Georgia. Smith could be the 4th in a row. He would be another explosive player on the defense.

DL maybe later first or 2nd round they could get a guy. There aren't a lot of big NT's in this draft. Mazi Smith would be one of them. I'm not sure if GB is looking for a NT type but he would be a guy to keep an eye on. An intriguing guy to keep an eye on is Calijah Kancey. He is in the Aaron Donald mold. An explosive type in the DL. Put him in between Clark and Gary, and he could provide something we don't have at that spot.

I also think they will draft a developmental QB. I can see them looking at Jake Haener, Clayton Tune, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Jaren Hall, Tanner McKee somewhere in the mid to late rounds.

We are a few days away until we finally have NFL Christmas! Almost time for us to see what our team unwraps for presents!

7 points
7
0
TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:06 am

Well put, but remember, in many cases they don’t REALLY get to unwrap them for 2 or more years.

Kinda like when I bought my current 2 wheeler. I bought it in December but couldn’t ride it until April. Little thing called winter got in the way. That was a long wait!

3 points
3
0
RCPackerFan's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:18 am

Very true. But even though you bought your 2 wheeler in December you maybe were able to enjoy looking at it this entire time. Just knowing its there and knowing that you will get to ride it soon enough is exciting. Its like when you are a kid and you get a new toy in a package. You may not be able to take it out right away just sitting there staring at it thinking about how much fun it will be, is also exciting!

Packers may add something that can contribute from day 1. Or they may add a guy that they will find a small role for right away and find bigger roles for later on. Just knowing they are officially on the roster allows us to talk about how they could contribute and how they may fit onto the team is always exciting!

3 points
3
0
TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:39 am

Agree, agree, agree, BUT I stored it at the dealership 100 miles away. But I DID ask them to send me more photos!
The waiting and anticipation were really…something!

Day 1 would be great, and it does happen. But also gotta give a guy a little time before declaring him a bust.

3 points
3
0
RCPackerFan's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:13 am

that is rough then.
yeah that is a tough one. Thats like getting a present on christmas that is a picture of what you are going to get.

Absolutely! the term bust is used way to much. Guys are deemed draft busts the minute they are drafted if people don't feel they should be drafted at that pick. Then training camp comes and guys are deemed busts because they haven't unseating veterans at that point. And then the season starts and guys are deemed busts because they haven't made it to the HOF yet. People need to relax with the bust stuff.

1 points
1
0
Tundraboy's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:07 am

Or waiting to use that new Fly Rod setup from Christmas. Let's go shopping Gute.

2 points
2
0
LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:14 am

TK, you let a little snow and cold keep you off your new 2 wheeler?

2 points
2
0
TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:56 am

Hells yeah I do!
I’ve also got a name for guys who claim to LOVE riding a motorcycle in the rain: LIARS! 😉

3 points
3
0
dobber's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:13 am

"Beyond the top seven or eight prospects, there are few if any players that truly deserve a first round grade."

The number changes by a couple players each year, but it's mostly the same idea at every draft--and every GM has a different number of guys with first-round grades on his board.

"Don’t be surprised if the predicted QB feeding frenzy at the top of the draft doesn’t happen. The most credible scouts don’t seem to be nearly as high on guys like CJ Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson as the media people are. "

Most of those QBs will still go ahead of 15, but having one or two of them (Richardson or Levis) on the board at 15 creates an opportunity for the Packers to sell that pick, if they're not sold on their board. Just like Jordan Love, QB needy teams (or teams anticipating QB needs in their near future) will want to see how far those guys slide, and when price point hits value--that will generate opportunity for the Packers. TBH, I don't get the love for Levis...and I think Richardson has disappointment written all over him.

"However, it is a very good second and third round draft "

Transfer-friendly rules and extra college eligibility due to Covid are helping to raise the floor on many prospects and create a cache of players who would likely have been day 3 or UDFAs in past years without the extra boost. Many of these guys who are 24 or 25 years old seem to be mostly capped out. The mantra on the draft for many years has been "weak at the top, value on day 2." At some point, we need to accept that as the norm and not think of it as something remarkable in that particular year.

"Most over-hyped player...It has to be Jaxon Smith-Njigba."

I think he'll be a really good security blanket, #2-type, out of the slot. This coaching staff doesn't seem to value small slots...they seem to want big players in that role (Lazard, Tonyan). Don't get me wrong, I think this offense needs some variety, and a guy who can get open off the snap would be a great get to support 10. A little concerned with soft tissue injuries, but JSN's not a good enough fit with the current Packers coaching mindset to throw #15 at him.

"My Day Three Draft Crush...Running back Dewayne McBride."

One or maybe both of AJones and Dillon will be gone in 2024. Packers need to be looking ahead with their RB room.

5 points
5
0
RCPackerFan's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:20 am

"Most of those QBs will still go ahead of 15, but having one or two of them (Richardson or Levis) on the board at 15 creates an opportunity for the Packers to sell that pick, if they're not sold on their board."

Another guy that could potentially create a trade market is Hooker. Some teams might like him more.

I just know that if 4-5 QB's go before pick 15, that is good for us.

6 points
6
0
packerbackerjim's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:01 am

Tyjae Spears looks like Aaron Jones 2.0: were he available in the 4th I would be ecstatic. With the history of 3rd round disappointments, I’d even consider him at #78.

2 points
2
0
RCPackerFan's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:03 am

I also Like Spears. Definitely a guy to keep an eye on in the 4th round +/- area.

1 points
1
0
packerbackerjim's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:34 am

Just re-read the CHTV take on Spears, whom they saw Spears as Aaron Jones 2.0. Unintentional plagiarism on my part.
( I would never be that obvious!).

4 points
4
0
greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 01:29 pm

Your last bit here, dobs, is where Bijan makes one helluva lot of sense, should the opportunity present.

I don’t want us drafting a RB R1, but, that would be some serious planning for the future with elite talent added to our roster.

Never know where “need,” presents, nor when for 2023. As a pure planning for 2024 move? Tough to argue against adding Bijan Robinson with the 15 pick.

0 points
0
0
dobber's picture

April 24, 2023 at 03:28 pm

If I had to take one or the other, I would take Bijan ahead of any of the TEs at 15.

1 points
1
0
HarryHodag's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:18 am

I've studied Branch, Mayer and Kincaid a lot. All would work at 15. Branch is the most pro ready safety this class in my opinion.

But trading back always requires someone to trade with. One thing that could happen is if C.J. Stroud falls. Bob McGinn's report on the mental ability test the draftees took probably hurt Stroud's draft status. If Stroud falls to 15 some team might be willing to give up a bunch to get him but that is pie in the sky.

If the Packers trade Rodgers this week they most likely would get one of the Jets second rounders. A first at 15, then a couple of picks in the 40's would be a nice haul for a team needing young inexpensive players.

2 points
3
1
jww061356's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:25 am

Right now my crush is Darnell Washington. He can immediately make a contribution as an inline blocker and looks like a freak athlete that has the smarts and desire to quickly become a mismatch in the passing game. Beyond that I think we look for difference makers at DT, OT, and EDGE. The OtT can even be a bit developmental, UNLESS we can get our mitts on Paris Johnson or Darnell Wright.

2 points
3
1
LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:42 am

Washington has some red flags on his work ethic and motivation to improve his skillset. If he has exhibited this mindset, the NFL will chew him up and spit him out.

Need to draft players that are motivated football players displaying evidence of continuous improvement first, athleticism second. Vice versa rarely works out.

1 points
2
1
Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:07 am

Not sure they are red flags as such. The question is surely, why he wasn’t used more as a catcher in his last year? That could be no more than his role, similar to Gary, or it could be that he doesn’t learn well. That’s why he’s a high upside risk despite his blocking as a 6th OL during his college career.

2 points
2
0
greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 01:00 pm

What red flags? I’m calling some respectful BS on that, my friend.

Darnell Washington could not come off as a more dedicated, knowledgeable, hard working & inspired a player as you’ll see.

0 points
0
0
dobber's picture

April 24, 2023 at 03:31 pm

Have certainly read plenty of scouting reports that say he overcomes lousy and sloppy technique with athleticism and raw size.

1 points
1
0
Turophile's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:27 am

Ken Lass "Beyond the top seven or eight prospects, there are few if any players that truly deserve a first round grade."

What is a first round grade ?

Ken Lass would have you believe it is some mythical but undefined gold standard against which this draft is measured. In fact if you look at the supposed first rounders that commentators reckon are first round picks, then EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. there are less than 32 first rounders, a lot less. It is utterly stupid and to say there are only about 8 players worthy of a round one grade this year, its beyond the farthest reaches of madness.

I can tell you how many first round picks there are this year, exactly 31. If you want to express the relative talent this year (compared to others), that's fine, just say this is a draft that is fairly deep but lacking in top prospects. Don't try to tie players to a first round where about 23 players (according to Ken) will be overdrafted.

Ideally, players should be assigned a grade, say a percentage score and the top 32 grades are (pre-draft) the likely first rounders. Now you have a better way of expressing the talent level in the draft. You can point to the lowest grade that is still in the top 32 and compare that grade to previous years scores. That should work much better in showing you the strength of this draft, relative to other years, Certainly it is a much better way of comparing the quality of this draft to previous years.

This doesn't show which position groups are relatively good or bad compared to other years unless you organise grades by position, but it does indicate how good this draft is overall.

The truth is each draft is an entity in its own right with its own strengths and weaknesses and this draft should be judged on its own merits. Look at who you think are the best 32 (well, 31 this year) and call these your first round picks.

There are many ways to talk about this draft and its strengths and weaknesses, but the way Ken chose to use, is just about the worst possible and most meaningless.

PS To be fair to Ken, he did go into more detail about this draft later, its just that outdated way of describing the first round that I take issue with.

7 points
8
1
murf7777's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:35 am

Hey Ken, I’m curious What scouts you follow and that you feel are cream of the crop. I’m not as big of a trade down as some, especially when we were in a win now mode. This draft I think it would be a good idea. We are in a rebuild so more young talent the better. Of course, a trade takes two to tango and if nobody will trade a give back good value than you have to go with taking the BPA.

1 points
1
0
mrtundra's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:43 am

I also feel that Jaxson Smith-Njigba is overhyped, overrated, whatever... I would much rather draft Dalton Kincaid at #15 and use him in the slot, than waste that pick on JSN, who might be "just okay" at his WR job. We will not be getting much, if any, value at #15, if we draft JSN there. I doubt Gute looks at any WR in Round 1, anyway. I feel the value on WRs is higher, on days two and three, in this draft. When I say that, I am thinking of A.T. Perry, Johnathan Mingo, Michael Wilson, Tank Dell, Jalen Wayne, Derius Davis, Demario Douglas, Tre Tucker and Dontayvion Wicks, types of players at WR, on days two and three.

3 points
3
0
dobber's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:49 am

To be fair, I think Kincaid is probably a better fit for how the Packers have used that slot guy in recent years...so I think you're probably right.

I'll add that I don't like Kincaid at 15, either, but I think he'd get more/better use.

3 points
3
0
RCPackerFan's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:06 am

I'd also add that the Packers have a greater need for a pass catching/field stretching TE then they do a 3rd WR.

1 points
1
0
greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:47 am

My thinking is Gutekunst knows he needs WR depth, not starters. The one immediate starter I could see him taking a chance on with a high pick is Quentin Johnston. Any R1 WR is a game of high stakes poker. Same holds true with EDGE, DT.

As for Johnston, I doubt highly he goes there, but… we’ll see. The pick could be a boon.

If he gambles, my guess is it will be Nolan Smith, Lucas Vann Ness or Calijah Kancey.

Paris Johnson Jr. Is my #1 followed by Broderick Jones, Calijah Kancey, O’Cyrus Torrence, Devon Witherspoon, Christian Gonzalez, Nolan Smith, Lucas Van Ness then Johnston at 15 for the Packers in that order.

1 points
1
0
Tundraboy's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:13 am

Nice list.

1 points
1
0
Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:00 am

Lol, except maybe Torrance, that is the consensus list of non QB best picks minus a couple of guys like Carter with Character/effort flags. Just takes me back to Dobber’s point: the more QBs taken before us the better.

3 points
3
0
LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:06 am

Hey G&G, you have obviously done more research on draft prospects than I have. What is the reason Van Ness NEVER started for the Hawkeyes? How do you not start him if he is supposedly "Hercules"?

1 points
1
0
greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 01:44 pm

LP, it’s as simple as LVN had two upper class men in front of him at Iowa, and that coaching staff is that fair and respectful to their players. Pretty much Van Ness’ own words explaining that.

I had wondered myself. He always wound up with the most production.

I’d take him at 13 or 15. Like a bandit.

0 points
0
0
HawkPacker's picture

April 24, 2023 at 02:23 pm

I can respond to that LP. The Hawkeyes have from 8 to 10 guys that they rotate for the front four of the Iowa defense. I think there were some players that just stood out more to what Iowa was trying to do defensively is why they started the game. However, they are all pretty close in talent and not really sure why he did not start any games. He did however, play about the same amount as the starters.

When he was originally hyped, I was somewhat surprised that he did not start either. I was also surprised when the announcement came out that he would be a first round pick, then he declares, etc. etc. I knew his teammates called him Hercules and I also knew that he was good at rushing the passer, but there are others on the front four that could also do that.

1 points
1
0
dobber's picture

April 24, 2023 at 03:33 pm

"My thinking is Gutekunst knows he needs WR depth, not starters."

Quality pass-catchers, regardless of position.

0 points
0
0
greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:32 am

If the Packers fail to land an in-line TE, then drafting a move TE in 2023 becomes at least a 2 year project at the position.

The Packers truly need both. This may be the year to take both.

AR trade compensation may help to make that happen.

I struggle to see Kincaid to GB, but, we’ll see.

2 points
2
0
TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 01:29 pm

I cannot see or hear “to be fair” without a Letterkenny induced chuckle.
Very funny series. On Hulu. Highly recommend.

1 points
1
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dobber's picture

April 24, 2023 at 03:33 pm

Just sayin'.... ;)

0 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:26 am

JSN’s best ball was played with two 2022 R1 WRs. Who got the single coverage?

Is JSN a fast WR? No.

Hard pass. Bust feelies all over that one.

6 points
6
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Tundraboy's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:14 am

These last two posts! You're killing it today.

2 points
2
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:30 am

Just calling balls & strikes! Lolz

Since I went all Major League, most GM’s benchmark success rate in any draft is like being a .300 hitter.

The ones who are perennial .300 hitters are the best of the best. Sometimes those hitters have career years, maybe one or two.

Same with NFL GMs. I think Gutekunst is pretty good, and hopefully “an ascending talent.” Last year’s draft is to me his best yet, with a lot of time left on that clock. We’ll see.

He’s gotten too full of himself in years prior after making great early picks where thereafter he seemed to lose focus.

To me, it looks like he may have snapped out of that trend last year. Much to prove further this week, and I wish him my best.

He better be on point with every pick, locked in a dark room like a savant, with no Murphy, LaFleur, AJ Dillon… nobody allowed in but his own Personnel Department Staff. I think that might bring us his best results.

There’s a lot to fuck up in this draft - and a lot of winning picks to be had.

Might be best for us fans to remember Gutekunst is drafting out in a 1-3 year window, and already knows 2024 draft strengths & weaknesses. That, and the fact we’re smack dab in the middle of rebuild mode.

1 points
1
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:01 am

Am I insane to think a WR worthy of going at #15 should have all of size, speed, hands, routes, and quickness? I’m willing to forgo blocking.

3 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:16 am

No, you’re not!!!

That’s what has me thinking if Gutekunst takes any WR in R1, it will be Johnston. He’s got both the size and speed to be a mismatch. Hands? They need work like many others. Routes? Same.

Quentin had good enough hands to make 60 rec, 1069 yds, 17.8 ypc and 6 TDs last season. I won’t argue the pick if Gutekunst goes there.

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2023 at 02:20 pm

Johnston was thought of as an X by a lot of pundits pre combine. He isn’t in the classic sense. He’s got no burst. However, he’s very physical and excellent catching and radius even in contested situations. So how did he get deep balls? If you watch him, if he can get free on the line, his speed kicks in post 20 yards. He’s fast enough once truly moving and he has great hands.

He’s a guy who I think will do well over the middle and also as a third guy going deep or outside out of bunch formations. I’ve gradually returned to see him as maybe the best big slot/3rd WR option who isn’t a TE in theory, if a coach has any imagination—without that he’s a possession guy. Late first early second.

1 points
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dobber's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:07 am

We'll also recall that one of the arguments used against Olave and Williams in last year's draft was that neither was the leading pass-catcher on that OSU roster.

2 points
2
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golfpacker1's picture

April 24, 2023 at 06:54 pm

I agree Tundra, I am a big no to JSN. Not everyone is in love with Njigba. And that should scare people who want to spend that high of a pick. Like you say there are so many really good WRs to pick in the 2nd and 3rd. Give me 2 tall fast ones like Ford-Wheaton and Landers and the WR room is rebuilt and now a strength.
Any really good TE we pick will make Love successful this year, but I really think KInkaid would help him the most. He is so smooth running routes and catching the ball. I will be disappointed if we don't take TE with our first pick, hopefully after trading back for more picks, but luckily TEs will be available in the first 3 rounds. And good ones later. I really want Josh Whyle too.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:55 am

In the first round I don’t draft guys who while healthy won’t test. I don’t draft guys with attitude problems either. I want footballers: guys who give consistent effort and are focused on playing.

I don’t draft questionable athletes (unless my scouts are completely convinced the testing is an anomaly): great second team players are not first rounders, sorry. All the skills and attitude aren’t enough if the physical attributes aren not adequate. Branch and JSN to me run the risk of being great college players who struggle to make an impact in the pros. That’s not a gamble I want to make in round one.

Add those to the small group of elite/blue chip players and this first round is a crap shoot. There are very few players for fans to latch on to. I think that’s why we are seeing some players hyped by different sections but less so by the pros. Bijan is good, but now he’s a guaranteed generational guy, JSN is a star in the making despite his concerning lack of long speed, etc.

Buyer beware in this draft. It could be a no trade affair, there could be a lot of reaching by GMs who see a fit or attributes in players others don’t. I’m not a fan of the DL or OL I see likely to be available at 15. We might get an edge if we are lucky, but otherwise I’m trading down if I can.

My best rated players I want are probably late first rounders. I don’t like the fits at WR. How many slot types do we need? How many boundary guys and TEs do we have?

The more I look at it the best slot might actually be Johnston. Thrives in contact, great hands, size, catch radius and while not sudden has speed after he has got going. More than JSN. Then there are the TEs who are mostly WRs. After that, the perimeter options are later and more developmental. Skip the little speedsters—we have Melton already, that’s a luxury we can’t afford early or possibly at all.

I’m almost certainly wrong (0 for 2 last year), but if we don’t take an edge, I hope we can trade back. I’d even consider doing that twice in some circumstances. I’d look for a Kincaid, LaPorta or Johnston as slot/TE/Lazard types. I would Love Washington as an upside gamble and blocker/red zone guy now. Late first/early second.

There are DL in the 3/4 I think, safeties in the 4/5s we need more picks. That’s the probable best route to value in this class. We have six picks as it stands in the first 5 rounds. We need an Edge, a TE, a Lazard, a perimeter WR, S and DL at a minimum. That’s your 6. That doesn’t get us duplicates or an OL. More picks would help. We aren’t going to hit on everyone.

Those 4 7ths and UDFAs have a chance to help this year, but we don’t need STs. Can we unearth a contributor there? If so at what positions? One may well be a K. Another may be QB. Picks are going to be gold dust this year given the roster we have and the cap we do not.

This year we need to have an overall strategy for the draft that goes some way to ticking off needs boxes. I don’t like that, but that’s the hole we’ve dug ourselves into. No luxury picks. This would be a great time to get that trade done. Any picks have more value this year than ordinarily for us as I see it.

Maybe not the conventional wisdom or a popular view, but it is how I see this draft in light of our position and this class. Fingers crossed and thank goodness it’s finally going to happen very soon. Even better if it sees the Rodgers situation finally resolved and pick(s) this year. We need them.

5 points
7
2
Bitternotsour's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:47 am

this is an excellent task for ChatGPT - analyze the last ten NFL drafts for healthy players that refused to test, and for their subsequent career numbers vs percentage of players who tested and their career numbers. You could even throw in variables for position groups.

i am not going to attempt the breakdown, because really, all I care about is who we drafted, and what the hope is in regards to how they fit.

one can only hope that the front office is using more than just analytics and that AI is filtering it's way into the equation.

-1 points
0
1
Tundraboy's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:21 am

I could not possibly agree more.

0 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:02 am

Wait…do you really draft? Or is this hypothetical?

1 points
1
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WD's picture

April 24, 2023 at 02:36 pm

Good insight coldworld. I agree we go Edge first followed by TE. Then allow the draft to guide our next selections. Gute actually understands the situation better than than the loyal and dedicated fans like us. So In Gute we trust helps to decrease the pre draft anxiety. If we get a pick or two from the Jets as anticipated we will have a very good draft.

0 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 24, 2023 at 02:58 pm

CW,
I have been a proponent of Quentin Johnston over JSN for months now. He is pretty much everything the Packers like in a WR, and who would compliment Doubs & Watson really well. I see the Packers drafting Kincaid, or Johnston, or possibly both with some maneuvering. They have been my two most frequently mocked players for 2 months now. I see the Packers playing Kincaid in the Slot & not as much at TE. Kincaid is my favorite player in round 1 along with Johnston, and Bijan Robinson, If either Paris Johnson, or Broderick Jones it would be very difficult to pass on either one of them.

"Branch and JSN to me run the risk of being great college players who struggle to make an impact in the pros. That’s not a gamble I want to make in round one." Branch & JSN are guys who I have concerns with as well. I don't think JSN will ever be a disappointment, but I don't see him being a top WR1. I see Johnston being a true #1 some day!

1 points
1
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 03:15 pm

Yeah, Knock, I do too.

I’d be very happy if he were selected by the Packers, either at 15. There’s a lot of boxes to check. That would be one of them.

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:02 pm

Mingo = Johnston without having to spend the first on him and doesn't drop the ball either.
Same player with less cost in draft pick and $$$. We don't need a WR with the first pick.
We need TE or Edge, hopefully after trade back for 2 more picks.

I do agree 100% on JSN and Branch, both overated and can find the same talent or better later. If we find a partner to trade back with, those 2 extra picks get us our Safety and TE #2.

0 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:01 am

I am a proponent of a trade down this draft due to excellent depth and Packer positions needing reinforcements.

I also realize the attractiveness of a #15 trade down depends on who remains on the board and is coveted by teams sitting 16-31.

What makes this draft fascinating is while there is never a consensus Top 15 before the draft...so rarely does the actual draft reflect a pre draft mock Top 15... this year's opinions are all over the "board" more than usual.

Expect a wild ride this week. How Gutey manuvers through this draft, at this time, probably makes it the most important and consequential of his tenure.

Come on Team Gutey! We need ya! (I just hope Mark Murphy is locked out of the room.)

5 points
5
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:14 am

Repost

0 points
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coolhand's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:19 am

Depending on if the Packers get a second from the Jets and have 3 picks in the top 50, what should be there priorities? I say DL, edge, OL. They can always find a TE or WR later on, even a S or CB as well. But it all depends on the Rodgers trade and what the other 14 teams do before the Pack picks at 15.

2 points
2
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:23 am

Very good post, CW. I too think Q Johnston could be a better slot investment than JSN. In fact, I’ll add some other guys who I think have just as good a chance of being equal to JSN if used primarily as a slot: Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, Jonathan Mingo, and even Luke Musgrave!
If JSN is worth drafting at 15 because he is“a good slot,” I’d suggest reconsidering one of these other guys, who offer that and MORE.

3 points
3
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WD's picture

April 24, 2023 at 02:50 pm

Spot on Mr Optimist. Jaymir Gibbs would be the best slot receiver in the draft. He led all Alabama receivers in yardage. He is also considered the 2nd best RB in the draft. Blazing speed. A dynamic playmaker. That said, I hope we take an Edge with our first pick but I would not be disappointed if we selected Gibbs. The WRs in this draft are nothing to write home about. In fact our three young rookies from last year would be some of the best in this years draft. I suspect Christian Watson would be rated number one. Our WRs are going to be a strength this year not a weakness. We can get a really good TE in the second round. We have to get that premier Edge though

1 points
1
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golfpacker1's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:05 pm

Gibbs would require a first round pick investment. Everybody says no RB in the first. We need TE, Edge more.

0 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:35 am

Here’s a great safety candidate: from TCU, 6’2” , 215#, 4.55 40, played CB and SS, 3 career interceptions and 4 sacks.

His name? Innis Gaines, and yes he’s already on the roster and knows the system.

My point is that the bottom-of-the-roster guys have just as much potential as this draft year’s safeties. I certainly wouldn’t take one in the first or probably even second round.

5 points
5
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 24, 2023 at 01:31 pm

I view Bo Melton the same way.

2 points
2
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2023 at 03:21 pm

I’ve been an Innis Gaines fan for 78 years…!

Lol.

The guy is one helluva player.

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:06 pm

My point exactly. We can get a safety in 2 or 3. And a better one than Branch.

0 points
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WD's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:56 am

I feel the Packers should draft an Edge rusher with the first pick. We had the 5th worst sack total in the league. Nor could we stop the run consistently. There are are several that would fit the Packer model of ht, wt ,speed athleticism and strength. To be specific Mile's Murphy. I liked some others earlier until I found out Miles ran a 4.51 at his pro day a few weeks ago. So, hopefully if he is there at 15. We grab him. He will most likely not be on the board later in the round. If he is not there take Nolan Smith. The knock on him is he is not big enough. I suppose the same could be said about Clay Matthews. Not big enough. lol. The Packers need play makers. Period. If both are gone take A. Adabaware. Edge rushers are probably (next to QB) the most important players on the field. That is why the good ones go early. Get a TE in round two. If the top ones are gone take Sam La Porta. Then just ride out the draft wherever it takes you. We have 10 picks . We have quantity we need quality.

2 points
2
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Qoojo's picture

April 24, 2023 at 12:03 pm

With so many holes, I just hope packers do not lose picks in first 3 or 4 rounds to trade up.

3 points
3
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golfpacker1's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:08 pm

Trading up would be the worst mistake we could make. No player we draft this year is putting us over the hump. Because we are not even close to the hump right now. 2025 maybe.

1 points
1
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Dragon5's picture

April 24, 2023 at 01:33 pm

My kind of article Mr. Lass! I was saving content below for draft night, but your article stoked the fire, and admittedly, it's been a couple weeks.

Wary of JSN...Garrett Wilson & Chris Olave shared the field during his banner year.  You can't argue with his elite twitch / agility which allows him to create separation; his lack of top speed; however, is well versed on tape.  Kupp or Cobb mold?  Prefer to trade down to mid / late 20s, and like a hearty Thanksgiving dinner, 2nds please.

On tape, affinity for these specific players, more or less from a value perspective:

EDGE Felix Aniduke-Uzomah
TEs Kincaid, Kraft, Washington
WR Rashee Rice
RB Tyjae Spears

Reposting draft relevant thoughts from earlier this year...

Draft crush remains EDGE King Felix...whoever put together his tape deserves an Oscar.

Metaphysically, I have DL Mazi Smith & WR Kayshon Boutte as the two highest injury risk players in the first 100 picks, both 7 life paths born on 7 days.

De'vondre Campbell is in his enemy year.  If misfortune strikes, theoretically ILB Jack Campbell could fill the void.

1 points
1
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Duneslick's picture

April 24, 2023 at 03:07 pm

Dont draft Mayer at 15. Maybe 2nd round. Average blocker and receiver not real big or fast.

0 points
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13TimeChamps's picture

April 24, 2023 at 03:33 pm

Well, so much for that EPIC, TRADE OF THE CENTURY...lol

Basically a swap of 1st round picks and a 2023 2nd rounder and a 2024 pick. Pretty much what every sane person predicted. No boatloads of picks, no Olinemen included. Just Rodgers straight up.

0 points
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13TimeChamps's picture

April 24, 2023 at 03:39 pm

"Jets are finalizing trade for Aaron Rodgers. Jets get: Aaron Rodgers, pick No. 15, a 2023 5th-rd pick (No. 170). Packers get: Pick No. 13, a 2023 2nd-rd pick (No. 42), a 6th-rd pick (No. 207), a conditional 2024 2nd-rd pick that becomes a 1st if Rodgers plays 65 percent of the plays."

1 points
1
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dobber's picture

April 24, 2023 at 03:40 pm

Here's a link:

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/04/jets-packers-agree-on-aaron-ro...

That 2024 could very well be a 1st.

1 points
1
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13TimeChamps's picture

April 24, 2023 at 03:41 pm

Just glad it's finally over. Time to move on.

1 points
1
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ko40489's picture

April 24, 2023 at 03:43 pm

It's official--ARod is now a Jet! Maybe we can finally talk about something else.

1 points
1
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golfpacker1's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:12 pm

Extremely glad its over. I am disappointed we didn't get any extra players back. That seems like it would have been an easy get if the Jets aren't in love with them. Ruckert and Mims would have been painless gravy.

1 points
1
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