I like your picks and the reasoning behind them.
Bo Melton is my personal sleeper on this team. Glad you see him the same way I do.

"Murphy: I really like Murphy as a prospect. He is also incredibly physically gifted (6'4, 268 lbs), and ran a 4.51(!) at the combine. His 2022 was not as good as 2021, although part of me wonders if he was dealing with some sort of injury. Murphy reminds me of Rashan Gary a lot watching him. Having two game-wreckers like that would be huge for the Packers' pass rush.

Wright: Wright will likely be just a RT in the pros, but he also has experience at LT. He is a man mountain (6'5, 333 lbs), but ran a 5.01 40. He is a mauler in the run game, and you will see that if you have ever watched his tape. Alabama's OLB Will Anderson, thought by many to be the best player in the draft, named Wright as the best tackle he'd ever gone against. In Tennessee's game against Alabama where they scored 52 points, Wright DOMINATED Anderson, absolutely stonewalling him. IMO, if none of the top edge rushers are available, we should go OT. Bakhtiari will not be on the team next year for cap reasons, and Nijman may not. I think Tom has a long-term future at LT, and Wright as our RT would solidify our O-line for years to come."

PackyCheese500.

Always good to read your posts as they are mostly:

1) Void of Emotion
2) Supported by facts

and thus capable of being discussed rationally.

Regarding Darnell Wright, I wrote this to Jannes a couple days ago. To me Darnell Wright's stock went up and Myles Murphy's down based on playing vs. not playing in the Orange Bowl.

"Bergeron controlled him. A four-year starter who can replace Runyan, day one, or cover the starting RT spot. Get Better."

Jannes,

How did Myles Murphy do against Tennessee's Darnell Wright in the Orange Bowl? We will never know, Murphy opted not to play - see story below.

Tennessee won the game despite 31 to 14, despite wide receivers Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman Jr. opting out and Hendon Hooker being out with the ACL tear. The Vols won despite Clemson having 34 first downs to the Vols 20 and the Vols backup QB being sacked by Clemson 4 times - don't know how many, if any of the sacks, were on Darnell Wright. The full game is here on youtube for those that wish to watch Darnell Wright's play:

Tennessee vs. Clemson Full Game | 2022 ACC Football

The key was INTERCEPTIONS and passing ACCURACY - Tennessee's backup QB Joe Milton did not throw any, while Clemson's QB threw 2 interceptions And Vols QB Milton was more accurate. .

Jannes, did you watch the Syracuse game vs. Clemson or do you have another source, If another source I would like to read it. I believe you, but if someone else evaluated Murphy's performance against Bergeron, I would like to see what it says.

Do you think Murphy feared being manhandled by Darnell Wright?

Here an excerpt:

"One of the best players on Clemson’s roster will not be playing in the Orange Bowl. Myles Murphy, a former five-star prospect at defensive end, has declared for the NFL Draft and also opted out of the bowl game against Tennessee.

Murphy is the tenth ranked player in the NFL Draft, according to ESPN. Despite the lack of dominant stats, Murphy has all of the tools NFL teams want up front. The 6-5, 275 pound defensive lineman put up seven sacks last year, following that up with 6.5 sacks this season. He added 14.5 and 11 tackles for loss in the past two seasons."

Story on Wright for the same Orange Bowl:

It’s not shocking that Tennessee football offensive lineman Darnell Wright is entering the NFL Draft. He would have been in his final year of eligibility anyway if not for the COVID-shortened 2020 season, and he really improved his draft stock this season.

Wright, who stands at 6’6″ 335 pounds and was the one player on this team who was a unanimous five-star recruit when he signed with UT, did not allow a sack this year. He also shut down Alabama Crimson Tide edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. as the Vols beat them 52-49.
As a result, you would expect him to go pro since he is a senior anyway. However, the surprise, and a welcome one at that, is his decision to play in the Orange Bowl for Tennessee football against the Clemson Tigers. He announced that news on Twitter Wednesday.

This decision by Wright comes after receivers Cedric Tillman and Jalin Hyatt both announced they would enter the draft and opt out of the bowl. Tillman, like Wright, would be out of eligibility if not for the COVID rules in 2020. Hyatt would have been available next year either way.

Still, Wright, who blossomed in his move to right tackle, is at greater risk of injury than any of them when all are fully healthy. Of course, there’s a caveat to that, and it’s Tillman currently dealing with an ankle injury. He obviously doesn’t need to do anything but focus on the draft now.

On top of that, Wright could hurt his draft stock, as he’s going up against arguably the best pass rush in the nation. To be fair, he could be betting on himself as well, as playing well in this bowl game will boost his stock. That could be the reason he’s playing in it.

If Wright is playing because of that confidence, you have to respect it. All NFL scouts will see that, and if he performs at the level he’s been performing at all year, he could potentially turn himself into a first rounder next spring.

What’s clear is that Tennessee football needs immediate help there. They are already losing Jerome Carvin on the inside, and they don’t have any proven depth at right tackle. Gerald Mincey and Jeremiah Crawford are on the left side.

Josh Heupel and Glen Elarbee may need to bring in a transfer for immediate help in this situation. If not, they need one of the younger linemen to develop fast. Otherwise, the unit could suffer a major setback when this team kicks off next year.

When it comes to the bowl game, though, this is a huge boost for Tennessee football. Clemson has registered 40 sacks on the year, and they would have given the Vols a ton of trouble without Wright. Now, though, this could get interesting.

"Smith: If we miss out on Van Ness, Nolan Smith is a guy who will likely be available at pick 15 and who I would not hesitate to pick, either. Many people have said that Smith's Georgia tape resembles Clay Matthews' USC college tape. They have somewhat similar size coming out of college (Smith: 6'2, 238 lbs; Matthews: 6'3, 240 lbs). The physicality with which they both play is a big parallel, too. Smith is also a top-notch run defender and has a powerful bull rush, too. Not to mention he is a tremendous leader."

PackyCheese500,

I asked this of Stockholder as well - his response is at the bottom of this post.

Are we looking for Nolan Smith to accumulate tackles in run support or purely as a pass rusher or both?

In 2022, Nolan had only 18 total tackles and 3 sacks and 7 tackles for a loss, 1 forced fumble and 1 pass defensed thru 8 games when he tore his pec muscle against Florida and was out for the season. That's 2.3 tackles per game.

By comparison, Georgia had 2 junior linebackers, Mondon Jr.(76 tackles - 5.8 tackles per game, 8 tackles for a loss, 1 sack, 1 interception, 1 pass defensed, 13 games) and Dumas Johnson (70 total tackles - 4.7 tackles per game, 9 tackles for a loss, 4 sacks, 3 passes defensed, 1 forced fumble, 15 games) with what seems like better run support numbers.

See MY NEXT POST for Nolan Smith's August 2022 response to "stats" - you may not play for stats, but to me when you see a defensive player with more sacks, more tackles, more passes defensed, more forced fumbles, more passes intercepted than another player, that is a pretty good indication that he is playing more effectively.

As for an edge rusher, how about Tuli Tuipulotu out of USC?

Tuli is the younger brother of Eagles lineman Marlon Tuipulotu and plays for USC in the Pac 12.

Tuli led all of college football with 13.5 sacks this past year, 2022, and had 21 tackles for a loss and 2 forced fumbles and 3 passes defensed.

Looked dominant against Pac 12 competition and Notre Dame too - see his video:

Tuli Tuipulotu 2022 Highlights | USC EDGE | 2023 NFL Draft Prospect

College Football Player Stats - Tackles For Loss

Please be aware that non-FBS players may show for some stats, due to a technical issue.

1 Durrell Johnson Liberty Flames DE 28
2 Tuli Tuipulotu Southern California Trojans DL 22
3 Ivan Pace Jr. Cincinnati Bearcats LB 21
4 Jose Ramirez Eastern Michigan Eagles DL 20
5 Thomas Incoom Central Michigan Chippewas DL 19
5 Viliami Fehoko San Jose State Spartans DL 19
5 Drake Thomas NC State Wolfpack LB 19
8 Layton Jordan Temple Owls LB 19
8 John Marshall Navy Midshipmen LB 19
10 Karl Brooks Bowling Green Falcons DL 18
11 Will Anderson Jr. Alabama Crimson Tide LB 17
12 Desjuan Johnson Toledo Rockets DT 17
12 Jared Verse Florida State Seminoles DE 17
12 Jordan Ferguson Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders DE 17
15 David Perales Fresno State Bulldogs DE 16
16 Mohamed Kamara Colorado State Rams DL 16
16 Nick Herbig Wisconsin Badgers LB 16
16 Trey Moore Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners LB 16
19 Isaiah Moore NC State Wolfpack LB 15
19 Owen Porter Marshall Thundering Herd DL 15
21 Yasir Abdullah Louisville Cardinals LB 15
21 T.J. Jackson Troy Trojans DE 15
21 Donovan Ezeiruaku Boston College Eagles DE 15
21 Cal Wallerstedt Texas El Paso Miners LB 15
21 Dee Winters Texas Christian Horned Frogs LB 15
21 Zi'Yon Hill-Green UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns DL 15
21 Dylan Horton Texas Christian Horned Frogs DL 15
28 Drew Sanders Arkansas Razorbacks LB 14
28 Cole Pearce Ball State Cardinals LB 14
28 Brian Branch Alabama Crimson Tide DB 14
28 Vonnie Watkins Ohio Bobcats DE 14
28 Calijah Kancey Pittsburgh Panthers DL 14
28 Jonah Tavai San Diego State Aztecs DL 14
28 Jalen Mackie Massachusetts Minutemen LB 14
28 Jaques Evans Western Kentucky Hilltoppers LB 14
28 Ty'ron Hopper Missouri Tigers LB 14
28 Jasheen Davis Wake Forest Demon Deacons DL 14
38 Mohamoud Diabate Utah Utes LB 14
38 DeVonne Harris Wyoming Cowboys DE 14
38 Braden Siders Wyoming Cowboys DE 14
38 Tyree Wilson Texas Tech Red Raiders LB 14
38 Levi Bell Texas State Bobcats DL 14
38 Harold Perkins Jr. Louisiana State Tigers LB 14
38 Shaun Dolac Buffalo Bulls LB 14
38 Isaiah Foskey Notre Dame Fighting Irish DL 14
38 Adam Plant Jr. UNLV Rebels DL 14
47 Isaiah McGuire Missouri Tigers DL 13
47 Marcus Cushnie Massachusetts Minutemen DL 13
47 Dom Peterson Nevada Wolf Pack DT 13
47 Tre'mon Morris-Brash Central Florida Knights DL 13
47 Yaya Diaby Louisville Cardinals DL 13
47 Bralen Trice Washington Huskies DE 13
47 Aaron Beasley Tennessee Volunteers LB 13
47 Keith Randolph Jr. Illinois Fighting Illini DL 13
47 Marquis Waters Texas Tech Red Raiders DB 13
47 Michael Shawcroft San Diego State Aztecs LB 13
57 D'Anthony Jones Houston Cougars DL 13
57 Jeremiah Trotter Jr. Clemson Tigers LB 13
57 Mazin Richards North Texas Mean Green LB 13
57 Josh Chandler-Semedo Colorado Buffaloes LB 13
57 Maema Njongmeta Wisconsin Badgers LB 13
57 Jer'Zhan Newton Illinois Fighting Illini DL 13
57 Andre Carter Western Michigan Broncos DL 13
57 Brock Martin Oklahoma State Cowboys DE 13
57 Jamare Edwards James Madison Dukes DL 13
57 Cade Hall San Jose State Spartans DL 13
57 Laiatu Latu UCLA Bruins LB 13
57 Dennis Osagiede Liberty Flames DL 13
57 Ethan Downs Oklahoma Sooners DL 13
57 Darian Varner Temple Owls DT 13
57 Payton Wilson NC State Wolfpack LB 13
57 Mason Cobb Oklahoma State Cowboys LB 13
73 TyJuan Garbutt Virginia Tech Hokies DL 12
73 Tommy Eichenberg Ohio State Buckeyes LB 12
73 Cedric Gray North Carolina Tar Heels LB 12
73 Daiyan Henley Washington State Cougars LB 12
73 Keion White Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets DL 12
73 Brennan Jackson Washington State Cougars DE 12
73 Averie Habas Southern Miss Golden Eagles LB 12
73 Nathaniel Watson Mississippi State Bulldogs LB 12
73 Chris Ojoh New Mexico State Aggies LB 12
73 Byron Young Tennessee Volunteers DL 12
83 Daniel Grzesiak Utah State Aggies DE 12
83 Jadrian Taylor Texas El Paso Miners DE 12
83 DJ Schramm Boise State Broncos LB 12
83 Marlowe Wax Syracuse Orange LB 12
83 SirVocea Dennis Pittsburgh Panthers LB 12
83 Keshawn Banks San Diego State Aztecs DL 12
83 Zayin West Kent State Golden Flashes DE 12
83 James Carpenter James Madison Dukes DL 12
83 Lonnie Phelps Kansas Jayhawks DE 12
83 Derick Hall Auburn Tigers LB 12
83 Victor Jones Akron Zips DL 12
83 Marshawn Kneeland Western Michigan Broncos DL 12
95 Dominic Quewon Southern Miss Golden Eagles DL 11
95 CJ Rias South Alabama Jaguars LB 11
95 Deontae Craig Iowa Hawkeyes DL 11
95 Corvin Moment Western Michigan Broncos LB 11
95 Bryce Houston Ohio Bobcats LB 11
95 Xander Mueller Northwestern Wildcats LB 11
* All Games qualifier is any player
* Home Games qualifier is any player
* Away/Neutral Games qualifier is any player
* Conference Games qualifier is any player
* Last 2 Weeks qualifier is any player
* Last 4 Weeks qualifier is any player
* Vs. TR Top 40 qualifier is any player
SH: I see CM3. A guy with speed and Twitch.

STR: Well Clay Matthews would be good.

SH: What you see is bull rushing, with No Bend.

STR: I think there is a lot more than bull rush, there is quickness too, but Reggie White type bull rush would not be bad. His brother is on the Eagles, drafted as a defensive tackle in 2021, 6th round. Good genes.

SH: Georgia was a Top Defense because of the speed.

STR: Certainly true. I just thought with that speed I would see a lot more tackles from Smith. 18 total tackles on the season in 8 games - I suppose if he is a pure edge rusher, one is not expecting him to make tackles, just sacks - he had 3 sacks over 8 games.

SH: You want guys who can't get off NFL blocks?

STR: True.

SH: Very Nice Post of players.

STR: Thanks.

Nice analysis, Packy. I need to look at Van Ness again. I did not know he was that much of an Iron Man. Gotta like the versatility.

Question is, would Barry use it? He's not shown me he plays a defense using the core strengths of his players customized to the current opponent. He's more like Capers in his coaching. Players have to play his scheme regardless of the fit to the skills of his players.

PackyCheese500,

As I wrote, in the last post, you may not play for stats - see Nolan Smith's comments in the article down below - but to me when you see a defensive player with more sacks, more tackles, more passes defensed, more forced fumbles, more passes intercepted than another player, that is a pretty good indication that he is playing more effectively.
Here are the stat lines for Smith, Anderson, Tuipulotu, and Van Ness. They can also be found at SRCFB.

Nolan Smith

Year School Conf Class Pos G Solo Ast Tot Loss Sk Int Yds Avg TD PD FR Yds TD FF

*2019 Georgia SEC FR LB 11 10 8 18 2.5 2.5 0 0 0 1 0 0

*2020 Georgia SEC SO LB 7 10 11 21 2.5 2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0

*2021 Georgia SEC JR LB 12 29 24 53 8.0 4.5 1 -2 -2.0 0 1 1 3

*2022 Georgia SEC SR LB 8 14 4 18 7.0 3.0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

Will Anderson

Year School Conf Class Pos G Solo Ast Tot Loss Sk Int Yds Avg TD PD FR Yds TD FF

*2020 Alabama SEC FR LB 13 34 18 52 10.5 7.0 0 0 0 0 0 1

*2021 Alabama SEC SO LB 15 56 45 101 31.0 17.5 0 0 0 3 0 0

*2022 Alabama SEC SR LB 13 24 27 51 17.0 10.0 1 25 25.0 1 1 0 0 0 0

Tuli Tuipulotu

Year School Conf Class Pos G Solo Ast Tot Loss Sk Int Yds Avg TD PD FR Yds TD FF

2020 USC Pac-12 FR DL 5 12 10 22 2.5 2.0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2021 USC Pac-12 SO DL 12 24 24 48 7.5 5.5 0 0 0 2 1 1 2

*2022 USC Pac-12 SR DL 14 31 15 46 22.0 13.5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 2

Myles Murphy:

Year School Conf Class Pos G Solo Ast Tot Loss Sk Int Yds Avg TD PD FR Yds TD FF

*2020 Clemson ACC FR DE 12 18 19 37 10.5 4.0 0 0 0 1 0 3

*2021 Clemson ACC SO DE 10 21 18 39 14.5 8.0 0 0 0 2 0 2

*2022 Clemson ACC SR DE 13 22 18 40 11.0 6.5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1

Lukas Van Ness

Year School Conf Class Pos G Solo Ast Tot Loss Sk Int Yds Avg TD PD FR Yds TD FF

2020 Iowa Big Ten FR DL (did not play)

*2021 Iowa Big Ten FR DL 13 17 16 33 8.5 7.0 0 0 0 1 0 0

*2022 Iowa Big Ten JR DL 13 17 20 37 10.5 6.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Clearly Anderson and Tuipulotu have the most impressive stats.

Nolan Smith, Georgia football pass rush not strictly focused on stats: ‘That’s when you accomplish nothing’
Posted
August 2, 2022
It’s understandable why we focus on sacks and other statistics on the defensive side of the ball. It helps provide analysis of a player or unit might be performing. For example, it perfectly illustrates how disruptive Alabama outside linebacker Will Anderson was last season. He notched 17.5 sacks, leading the country in said category.
By comparison, Georgia’s outside linebackers finished with 15.5 sacks across the entire position group. Nolan Smith picked up 3.5 of those sacks, while Robert Beal led the team in said category with 6.5.
But just looking at those stats doesn’t paint the full picture of what the Georgia outside linebacker room was asked to do last year. Smith showed an ability to drop into coverage while also maintaining the edge in run support. He was not given the same free reign to attack quarterbacks as Anderson was.
This is where sometimes statistics can lack context. Anderson is not five times better than Smith as their sack totals would indicate.
It’s also not how the game is actually played. Players aren’t actively hunting stats in order to pad their personal accolades.
“It’s supposed to be fun,” Smith said at SEC media days. “When you go out there and have fun, that’s when the game — that’s when you make the most tackles, when you make the most sacks. If you go out there and think about, man, I’ve got to get 12 sacks, I’ve got to get 55 tackles this year, I’ve got to be a first-round pick. That’s when you accomplish nothing.”
Related: What Georgia football really needs from Nolan Smith in 2022 season
Georgia is going to need Smith to have a bit more fun this year than last season. While the outside linebackers didn’t account for the majority of sacks last season, it would be a surprise if they didn’t this year. For one, Smith and Beal are two of the most experienced members of the defense.
The outside linebacker position didn’t suffer the same level of departures that every level of the Georgia defense seemed to. Other than Adam Anderson moving onto the NFL — he went undrafted as he awaits his trial following rape charges stemming from an incident that occurred in October of last year — Georgia brings back everyone from its position last year. The only change is that Chidera Uzo-Diribie is now the position coach as Dan Lanning is now the head coach at Oregon.
The Bulldogs also signed three edge rushers in the 2022 recruiting cycle, led by 5-star freshman Marvin Jones Jr. While expectations will be high for Jones, much of the actual production is expected to come from Smith and Beal.
Both players could’ve entered the NFL draft a season ago yet instead elected to return for their senior seasons. While their legacies are well-established already, they both want to build off what they did last season.
“One hand washes the other. That’s my guy,” Smith said of Beal. “A lot of people don’t like to split reps. A lot of people don’t like to share plays, but someone you can work off of — 1 + 1 is equal to 3 in our program because the connection of me and you is another one. So, a lot of people don’t realize that, and that’s how we play football.”
Georgia will still need to create sacks and tackles for loss from all levels of the defense. Jalen Carter will look to do so from the defensive line, while Jamon Dumas-Johnson and Smael Mondon will look to do so from the inside linebacker position.
Still, the biggest burden will fall on the plate of Smith. He knows this and isn’t burdened by it. He’s put in the hard work over the course of his Georgia career and has been building for a moment like this.
And if he plays as he is capable of doing so, it should be pretty fun to watch.
“What an incredible personality he has. He’s one of these players that pushes our team,” head coach Kirby Smart said. “When Nolan screams at you, you wake up quick. He demands a lot of respect in our program because of the way he works.”

PackyCheese500,

Specifically, what do you use as sources to make your assessments of these college players?

Personally, I only find value in:

1) My OwN EYES - watching the college players play college games.

2) Qualifying what I see by what level of competition the particular player is facing.

3) My OWN EYES - watching the college players at the NFL combine and Pro Days.

4) Evaluating individual College statistics, again adjusting for level of competition.

5) Evaluating the NFL Combine and Pro Day measurements and results..

The objective of the 31 Billionaire Parasite NFL Owners who control the teams and these various NFL media sites and the paid wage slaves and talking heads who spew out these mock drafts is to MAXIMIZE REVENUE and NOT NECESSARILY TO PROVIDE TRUTH or any value. The entrance of "profit" corrupts any offering. Consequently, I find little value in the mock draft writeup pass arounds of Todd McShay ESPN, Dane Brugler (the Athletic), Vinni Iyer Sporting News, Mel Kiper,, Daniel Jeremiah, etc. etc. I mean, I will read them, but 1 through 5 I find more dependable than what is being written up and talked about by these paid talking heads and dramatists, some who peddle hysteria and gossip and rumors with "unnamed sources". .

Packey—I’m with you on Van Ness.
Let’s get him.
Go Packers!!!

Lofton, AR, Butler, ...?

I include Sharpe as HOFer.

And how many time Packers pick at 15th pick of the draft? All 45 years?

I am wondering if there's any scenario in which you would look back and determine that Love was a good pick after all?

Edited -

The oft found but never looked for "double post".

Honestly, I would be OK with that. One - He's arguably the most talented player in the draft. Two - He can play slot if needed (Texas used him there a good bit to devastating effect). Get him 4-5 carries a game and 10-12 snaps at slot and he would be a nightmare for DCs.

Love was a pick that at least made some sense at the time. Drafting someone so they can be our 3rd-string RB in the first round is as bone-headed as you can get.

Keep Trading when the blue chips are gone @#15.
#24 Felix Uzomah Edge
#45 Tillman WR#2
#56 Kraft TE
#66 Sydney Brown S (Bob Sanders)
#78 Darius Rush CB
#116 Tyler Steen RT
#149 Schoonmaker TE
#170 Max Duggan QB
#187 Ali Gaye Edge
#232 Anfernee Orji LB
#242 Coburn DT
#256 Lew Nicholls RB
Pick up a veteran DT later on.

That Power Sweep was a thing of beauty! They didn't even try to disguise it. The other team knew it was coming, but was helpless to stop it. Good memories!

Lombardi would run that power sweep every practice over and over and over. During games, it would be stopped from time to time, but mostly early in games. In the second half and especially 4th quarter playing with a lead (most of the time!), they would grind the defense to dust.

Part of winning is also stopping your opponents from scoring, too. The Lions started 1-6 even though they had a strong offense because their defense sucked for the beginning of the season. When they got things turned around they went 8-2 for the rest of the season.

I would use our two seconds on pass-catchers; a TE and a WR. We need to use our round 1 on an edge rusher; it is the strength of the draft class, and because of that, we will be able to get a truly amazing prospect. The 2024 edge class is weak. Take advantage of it now!

We cannot just focus on offense. There are two other phases of the game. Complimentary football is what has consistently won games over the years. Offense AND defense!