Statistics Show Finding a Pro Bowl WR Is More Likely in the 2nd Round Than the 1st

The NFL Media Research Department found that most Pro Bowl wide receivers are found in the second round.  

As it turns out, being a first-round draft pick doesn’t always equate to success-- even if you’re a wide receiver.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Green Bay Packers haven’t selected a wide receiver in the first round since Javon Walker in 2002. Still, every year it seems a large portion of the fanbase is gutted when the top remaining pass-catcher isn’t welcomed to Green Bay by way of a first-round pick.

However, that hasn’t hindered their ability to find viable pass-catchers in subsequent rounds. In fact, there are multiple examples of players who went on to have profound success despite not being first-rounder picks. Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams are prime examples and all were drafted in either the third or second round.

This is probably a debate a lot of Packers fans wish would perish, but it’s always a hot topic during the offseason when points of discussion are running scarce. And while the 2021 NFL Draft might be over, the debate of who should have been drafted where is timeless.

This week, even NFL reporters are weighing in on the debate of drafting wide receivers in the first round.

On Monday, Ian Rapaport of NFL Network tweeted research pulled from the NFL Media Research Department after they broke down the number of Pro Bowls for wide receivers drafted over the last 10 years. According to Rapaport, data from the past decade proves that drafting a wide receiver in rounds 1-3 shows teams are more likely to find a Pro Bowl WR in the second round than the first round.

In the last 10 drafts, eight wide receivers drafted in the first round have been selected to at least one Pro Bowl. One being Cordarelle Patterson, who made the Pro Bowl as a return specialist/special teamer. Contrarily, 12 wide receivers drafted in the second round have been selected to at least one Pro Bowl. Adams (Four Pro Bowls) is second on the list only to Cleveland wideout Jarvis Landry who has made five.

In total, Jennings, Nelson, Cobb, and Adams, have combined for eight Pro Bowl selections as former second-round picks. This shows just how successful they’ve been as an organization at finding successful wide receivers after the first round.

Eventually, there will be a time and place where the value is there for Green Bay to select a wide receiver in the first round. They’ve reportedly come very close in the last two years, but they’ve still done great job filling the roster with adequate talent.

Obviously, this isn’t going to change how Packers fans feel about flooding the offense with first-round talent, but it serves as a good talking point whenever you find yourself in a debate about the benefits of drafting a wide receiver in the first round. The data proves it’s not always the most effective approach to finding the best weapons at wide receiver.

 

 

 

Brandon Carwile is a Packers writer who also enjoys watching and breaking down film. Follow him on Twitter @PackerScribe.

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Comments (74)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Leatherhead's picture

May 12, 2021 at 12:11 pm

Obsessed with WRs.

Our QB situation is uncertain and our defense can always use improvement, but let’s dwell on a guy who’ll catch six passes for 80 yards

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HankScorpio's picture

May 12, 2021 at 05:02 pm

80 yards/game comes out to 1280 on the year. It is an undeniably helpful number, whether is comes via ground or air. 8 WRs hit that mark via the air last year. 2 RBs did it on the ground..

65/game is more like 1000 yard. Pretty good production and still quite valuable. 18 WRs and 9 RBs, in case you're wondering.

It's a pass first league. Has been for quite some time now. I'm not sure if any teams ran more than they passed. If any did, it sure as hell ain't a big number. It makes sense to invest in talent for what you do most. Even if you don't see it.

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Leatherhead's picture

May 12, 2021 at 05:20 pm

MVS and Lazard combined for 66 catches and 1150 yards. If we had ONE guy who did that, how does it improve the offense?

You may believe it’s a passing league, but teams that run the ball a lot make the playoffs more often than teams that throw a lot

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HankScorpio's picture

May 12, 2021 at 07:02 pm

It helps the Packers because one guy produced the same as two.

Is that a trick question?

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Leatherhead's picture

May 12, 2021 at 08:15 pm

There’s only one ball. The production is the same.

Let’s put it this way. I have a truckload of top soil delivered. I have one shovel and one wheelbarrow. Will the pile get moved faster with one guy or two?

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Coldworld's picture

May 12, 2021 at 10:56 pm

If Lazard could stay healthy wouldn’t be an issue. We have Funchess and a better slot/option player this year.

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greengold's picture

May 13, 2021 at 05:25 am

Depends on their 40 times.

I love this analogy. It is so true. Bill Belichick approves.

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HankScorpio's picture

May 13, 2021 at 05:46 am

This is not moving dirt and that is a stoopid ridikulous analogy. This is about how talented the roster is at WR. Moar talent is better. For your analogy to work, the Packers would have to cut both Lazard and MVS in order to find that better player. But that's not the case. The most likely casualty would be Malik Taylor.

So with the player that can produce at a combined level of MVS and Lazard while still having MVS and Lazard, in what possible way are they worse off?

I am truly baffled why you continue to argue against improving the talent on the roster at WR. It is a truism that better talent = better shot at winning.

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greengold's picture

May 13, 2021 at 06:06 am

Hey Hank,
The analogy isn’t about adding more WRs. It is about adding more position groups to contribute to your success on offense. A balance of run & pass.

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HankScorpio's picture

May 13, 2021 at 06:56 am

That is an entirely different discussion. That's scheme, not talent. I believe the Packers should assemble the most talented roster they can, including at WR, along with every other position on the team. I agree that they need to build up the ground game at the same time they build the air attack. One does not diminish the other.

That's why I have said repeatedly that I think ML's offense is brilliant. It is much more balanced and much less likely to ignore the run that what MM's offense morphed into at the end. That's a good thing.

Good scheming will emphasize good talent. I want the offensive staff to have so much talent, they can emphasize whatever they want or need at a particular moment vs a particular opponent.

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greengold's picture

May 13, 2021 at 01:11 pm

Hank, I don't mind. We all have differing opinions. I'm just trying to look at what Gutekunst inherited, and what he has brought in, and how he has brought talent in.

Gutekunst inherited a mess. He's had 4 drafts to date:

R1 he added CB, LB, S, QB and CB. All look like hits. Jury still out on Gary, Savage, Love and Stokes. Alexander is arguably the best CB in the NFL.

R2 he added CB, OG/C, RB and OC. Sole miss looks to be Josh Jackson. Jury still out on AJ Dillon and Josh Myers. Jenkins arguably the best OG in the NFL.

R3 he added ILB, TE, TE and WR. Sole miss looks to be Oren Burks. Jury still out on Jace Sternberger, Josiah Deguara and Amari Rodgers.

Those are the early picks. I wanted another WR too, but I'm very happy with the Amari Rodgers selection. I can't argue against him doing all he could to address the secondary and our pass rush, while finding value players in Lazard, MVS, EQ and Taylor. We still have an unknown quantity in Devin Funchess as well. I'm a HUGE Reggie Begelton fan. We might be surprised by his development this year.

Bust rate of WRs is tied for worst overall with RBs in the 1st Round of NFL drafts. I can see exercising caution there.

Gutey had A LOT to fix. There is a lot left for him to add yet this season via trade and FA if he chooses. Chances are Gutekunst gets a great talent in trade this year, or by trading up next year (with capital from an AR trade) to get a player that otherwise would have been out of his reach.

Justin Jefferson was that guy last year. A lot of teams wanted him on their rosters.

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HankScorpio's picture

May 13, 2021 at 02:04 pm

We're getting into tiny text territory so I won't say much beyond that I don't disagree with much. No doubt that Gute inherited a mess and not everything can be fixed at once.

The only quibble is that I don't share your optimism about some in the WR room. But that's ok. The point has been beaten to death. No need to rehash it anymore.

For 2021, what will be done has been done. I'm ready to see how it all shakes out. I hope your view of the WR room is a more clear view than mine.

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Leatherhead's picture

May 13, 2021 at 08:00 am

Save your breath, GG. Hank doesn’t want to understand.

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HankScorpio's picture

May 13, 2021 at 08:30 am

Sorry to have triggered you. I'll stop.

Have a nice day.

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Leatherhead's picture

May 13, 2021 at 09:18 am

I actually agree with you, Hank.

The Beatles would have been a better band if they had Jimi Hendrix instead of George Harrison, because he’s a more talented guitar player.

It’s talent, after all. It’s like, our marriages would be better if our wives were more talented. Right? Star Wars would have been a better movie if we had a more talented actor playing C3PO. The Mona Lisa would be a better painting with a more talented model.

I could keep going if you’d like.

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greengold's picture

May 13, 2021 at 01:18 pm

Yeah, but wanting a WR last year can't be deemed wrong. A lot was made of Queen too, but the dude did tag some QBs, and might have gotten to Brady.

While you and I may have embraced the positives with the Jordan Love pick, I still wonder what might have been had we drafted a player like Michael Pittman Jr. at 30 last year...

I like MVS, but the dude has to fucking stop dropping balls. Holy shit. He's got a double digit Drop%.

We are all just guessing here, and we're all on the same team. Except for the bots working from home...

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Leatherhead's picture

May 13, 2021 at 03:09 pm

MVS dropped four passes. He has one of the league’s top yards/target averages.

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Leatherhead's picture

May 13, 2021 at 07:57 am

Malik Taylor? We need to upgrade Malik Taylor to win? That pretty much explains everything to me, Hank.

We were the #1 offense in the league last year. We had 348 yards passing in the Championship game. But if we would have had a guy on the field instead of MVS.....

Lack of talent at the WR position isn’t the problem. I’m sorry you’re too stooopid to understand that.

Adams. MVS. Lazard. Funchess. Rodgers. ESB. But we need to replace Taylor. Sheeesh.

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PhantomII's picture

May 13, 2021 at 01:17 pm

I believe Gute and ML are zeroing in on the main culprit. If we are going to be a primary run team we need road grader OL that get a push in the run game even against what would be considered Elite level DL. That has been our main Achilles heel these last few NFCC game losses. Being able to keep the OLB's honest and contain instead of running hell bent for the QB and us not being able to run the ball efficiently or pass block in the clutch. Everything starts there and we have a lot of bodies that are now there to see who can do both well enough. We also have Deguara back and he is a difference maker. This Rodgers Slot WR is special and built like a RB also. I agree with Hank to a degree before our OL additions one can take away some ugly from another position, but the apparent OL upgrade will also move us in a steadier direction for continued success. A very solid #2 WR does help free up the pass game which is his point, especially against Elite defenses. I think Rodgers will help do that along with jet sweep plays. We are addressing multiple things that needed upgraded. Things are looking up for our team minus QB fiasco. If Love does have to start, not many teams have put a young QB surrounded with a solid Offense and Defense that is ready for them to flourish. ML scheming things open is going to do wonders for this kid if he does start. I think Love can be the real deal also.

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greengold's picture

May 13, 2021 at 01:31 pm

Standing. Ovation. Great points, PhantomII.

Really, there was a lot of turmoil for Gutekunst to circumnavigate. Not only did he have to clean up the mess he inherited on the personnel side, he also became immediately immersed in the Aaron Rodgers/Mike McCarthy feud that ended with a new HC search, then, an ALL OUT search to add players specific to Matt LaFleur's scheme.

Everybody is wanting their WR, myself included. We got one for the slot this year, who also will be perfect for LaFleur's jet concepts. AWESOME!!!

The talent on this roster will continue to improve under Brian Gutekunst. I think we will be seeing some players show marked improvement this season, all over the place.

If Jordan Love proves to be the real deal, the sky is the limit.

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PhantomII's picture

May 13, 2021 at 02:24 pm

Agree, Rodgers can say Gute is not giving him a valid WR #2 and that is true. The packers are however improving the defense overall and the run game also. Never like how Pettine was calling the D on early downs. The new Slot guy is impressive. Gute is improving the overall team and that is a fact. Gute does madden me at #2 WR and the DL still....but we are an overall better team and I like the first 3 picks in this last draft and believe they all contribute this season and maybe a few more. Some will help the ST also and boy did we need that upgraded.

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Thegravedigger's picture

May 12, 2021 at 09:55 pm

Yes. And then they lose. Ravens. Seahawks. Titans. Couldnt get over the hump. If your gonna hate on davante then your just not worth the effort anyway.straight up troll nonsense.

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greengold's picture

May 13, 2021 at 06:12 am

I think the best WR in the NFL might want to stay with GB once he gets a sense of what Love can do.

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ThxJackVainisi's picture

May 13, 2021 at 10:32 am

Last season 3 teams ran the ball more than passed at and 5 teams ran it more than 48% of the time. The same stats apply to 2019. In 2018 it was 2 and 5 respectively, and in 2017 the numbers were 2 and 6. In 2016 it was 2 and 4. Obviously it’s a passing league. The Super Bowl winners over the past 5 seasons emphasize the point. Here’s their run percentage: 2020: TB 31.7%; 2019: KC 39.4%; 2018: NE 45.4%; 2017: PHI 45.6%; 2016: NE 46.7%.

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Leatherhead's picture

May 13, 2021 at 11:55 am

If it’s a passing league, then why do teams that run a lot make the playoffs?

Do you know why teams pass? Because they can’t run. How many passes did SF throw against us in the 2019 Championship game?

And if you throw a short pass to a back, how is that different from a run? Over half our plays go to a running back.

Yes, Tom Brady has won three of the last five Super Bowls. If you think that makes it a passing league,fine.

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Bearmeat's picture

May 12, 2021 at 12:51 pm

bUt ThE pAcKeRs HaVeNt DoNe EnOuGh FoR aArOn RoDgErS! jAvON wAlKeR! 2002. dUr DuR....

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greengold's picture

May 12, 2021 at 01:11 pm

WRs are always going to be a part of the conversation. Thought the Packers would have added more than one this draft due to expiring contracts.

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Leatherhead's picture

May 12, 2021 at 01:11 pm

No need for misogyny.

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greengold's picture

May 12, 2021 at 01:42 pm

It was a bot. I get it.

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Coldworld's picture

May 12, 2021 at 05:01 pm

Are you dissing Gaither!

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greengold's picture

May 12, 2021 at 07:34 pm

Ha! No. No. Honestly, I don’t know much about him. Been remiss in looking up his history. I just had some other favorites I was pining for and lost some interest. I’ll check him out!

Also, I pulled out the C earlier while dissing a bot... my bad. That’s why LH commented as such. My intent was levity.

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PhantomII's picture

May 12, 2021 at 03:31 pm

The real difference in a first round draft pick and a second round is opinion of readiness to start. 1st RD guys have a more polished route tree and are more likely to start year one. All of GB's great WR's in the second round took 2.5-3.5 years to be dominant. They were more raw with high upside potential. It doesn't hurt to be thrown passes from first ballot HOF QB's either instead of a poor team who picks higher #1 WR's and a mediocre QB throwing him the ball.

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stockholder's picture

May 12, 2021 at 01:14 pm

Adams is Leaving if Rodgers goes. That seems to be the assumption. Can't say I blame him. If your an All-pro. You don't stay for a guy who hasn't thrown a NFL ball yet. If Rodgers does come back, Every pass should go Adams way. Bank on it.

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PewAuKeeFan's picture

May 12, 2021 at 03:59 pm

By your logic, there was no need to draft a WR last year or this year, or possibly ever as long as AR12 is on the roster. The balls will anyway go Adam's way.

Then why was AR12 upset last year? He already had everyone (emphasis on the "one") that he needed.

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Thegravedigger's picture

May 12, 2021 at 09:58 pm

Davante is gone if 12 is gone. By anyones logic except the logic of somebody living in a green n gold cloud

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Coldworld's picture

May 12, 2021 at 10:58 pm

Might be gone if he stays at the sort of costs mooted.

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jurp's picture

May 12, 2021 at 06:04 pm

Adams is leaving if Rodgers STAYS - there'll be no cap room to sign him. If Rodgers is traded, then we'll have cap room for Adams - IF he wants to play in GB.

BTW, it's "you're" (contraction of "you" and "are") not, "your" (second person pronoun).

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dobber's picture

May 13, 2021 at 07:51 am

#17 will follow the $$.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

May 13, 2021 at 12:07 pm

There is so much uncertainty right now but if Love is the QB and Rodgers is gone how promising does Love look to Adams? How good of a season does Adam's have with Love at the helm?

Do the Packers trade Rodgers and package Adam's with him? At this point I am open to this possibility but all depends what the Packers get in exchange. Both teams involved in the trade have to appease their fan base, subsequently both teams have to declare they are extremely happy and it worked out splendidly. No one team can seemingly come out one sided with a clear advantage, or heads will fall in FO's.

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murf7777's picture

May 12, 2021 at 02:29 pm

Ask Matt Millen how it worked out taking WR’s three consecutive drafts I believe all in the top 10. Not the smartest drafting technique.

The problem is a lot of these Big name WR’s come from the Top 5 teams, Bama, OSU....etc, with massive OL and great players surrounding them, so single coverage and weaker CB’s guard them and they look over the top great. When they get to the NFL everything changes, weaker comparable team, better DB’s and they no longer put up the BIG numbers.

GB has developed WR’s over period of years and has reaped the rewards for those efforts without putting top draft capital towards that position. Very astute.

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murf7777's picture

May 12, 2021 at 02:34 pm

I will add it’s the same reason few of those QB’s succeed at high levels in the NFL. When’s the last time a QB from OSU or Bama has been a pro bowler much less great career? Good luck Chicago, you will still suck.

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PewAuKeeFan's picture

May 12, 2021 at 04:00 pm

Multiple upvotes for your last sentence! :)

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greengold's picture

May 12, 2021 at 03:19 pm

Hey, big name WRs come with credence attached. You're right murf7777. Sometimes that credence may be unwarranted.

I've thrown Jerry Jeudy's name around in trade talks. He was a R1 from 2020 draft #15 overall from Alabama. It is very difficult to figure out where his rookie problems lie, and pretty easy to point to poor QB play. What if it's more? Jeudy only had 38 receptions on 83 targets. Of 117 receivers in the NFL last year with at least 35 targets, only two have a worse catch % than Jeudy.

I watched some highlights, and thought, "WTF???" He seemed slow. Checked his 40 time, and it was a 4.46. No wonder. Looks to be representative.

Something to think about...

For anyone wondering, DEN's #1 WR, Courtland Sutton is coming off of surgery for an ACL tear in his left knee Sept. 20th 2020. He missed the season's week 1 game with an AC joint separation.

Sutton is a good WR when healthy. I remember him from that 2018 draft out of SMU. R2.

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Dragon5's picture

May 12, 2021 at 04:28 pm

Perhaps you forgot Adams had a bad case of the drops early in his career.

They're both great WRs that do well with contested catches. While Sutton may be more physically imposing, Jeudy is quicker, a far superior route runner, and a bonafide WR#1

https://youtu.be/LmeI0z4SlQI

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greengold's picture

May 13, 2021 at 12:36 pm

Yeah. The 46% Catch% could be an anomaly. Especially with their QB situation and the season they had. I had not forgotten, and Davante's low was around 53%.

Drop% of 8.8% gives me a bit of pause.

Again, Sutton is coming off an ACL tear in 2020.

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PhantomII's picture

May 12, 2021 at 04:20 pm

LSU WR's lookin pretty good.

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jannes bjornson's picture

May 12, 2021 at 08:52 pm

The best Farm system for Pro players is in Baton Rouge.

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CoachDino's picture

May 12, 2021 at 03:15 pm

Nice piece. kinda shows what a joke national media really is. That information has been available for years and i haven't once heard, even local media, combat a claim of no weapons, "just look at rd 1 picks not containing a wr"....with this information. Media is a business that pushes narratives not a place of intellectual and informational advancement. If you want that, IMO, CHTV is the best source when it comes to the packers. Not a believe 100% source, none are unless you are a sheep, but by far the best packers fans have. "Free your mind and the rest will follow"

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PewAuKeeFan's picture

May 12, 2021 at 04:05 pm

Spot on Coach! CHTV is a great source. All we need are 2 sentences:

Go Pack Go!
Da Bears suck!

Nagler always manages to slip that 2nd sentence a few times into his videos, never fails to pump me up! LOL... it's good to be a Packer fan.

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Coldworld's picture

May 12, 2021 at 05:04 pm

If we had more receivers then the locals might have time to write articles about why we don’t need one instead.

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greengold's picture

May 12, 2021 at 03:22 pm

Dino, this is a study I've referred to often over the years, from 2013:

https://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1064&context=spor...

It is really quite good. R3-7 are the better rounds for drafting a WR according to this study.

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PhantomII's picture

May 12, 2021 at 04:24 pm

If you have 2.5 - 4 years to bear fruit....we don't. Although this Rodgers kid will start, should have drafted higher and is from a stellar team and QB.

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CoachDino's picture

May 12, 2021 at 07:44 pm

problem is where you draft in the 1st rd. The Blue chip guys, which there are an avg of around 15 total in the draft (1st rd) aren't going to be available where an organization like GB will be drafting. When drafting late your choice "may" come down to a guy who may be ready to start but isn't ever going to be great (high floor, low ceiling) or a developmental guy who might not be ready to start but displays all the traits and characteristics to possibly be as good as a blue chipper.

Teams that go for quick returns but low overall impact are usually desperate and the coach/gm is trying to save their job instead of do what's best for the team.

Plus when drafting at the end of the draft by default you must have a good roster. most late 1st rd draft picks will have very little impact on a team like that for obvious reasons.
Good rosters have few holes where a players will be given year 1 opportunity over a very bad player as there most likely wasn't a very bad player starting in a impactful position.. So even if they start the improvement might not be enough to make a large impact.

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PhantomII's picture

May 12, 2021 at 09:39 pm

If you need a #1 WR and we do you move up to top 3 and get him if you want an Elite WR.....if you want to win a super bowl. Claypool was in our wheelhouse and this drama would not be happening and maybe we have a trophy to boot. The Slot WR Rodgers is gonna be good though this year and beyond.

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greengold's picture

May 13, 2021 at 05:41 am

I really, REALLY wanted the Packers to take Michael Pittman Jr. last year. That was my main draft crush. I’m super happy with Amari Rodgers, who was a legit R2 talent. He was FWIW #2 on Mel’s Best Available at our #62 pick. We took him at #85.

Recent R3 history WR draft success includes James Jones, Antonio Freeman & Robert Brooks.

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CoachDino's picture

May 12, 2021 at 07:20 pm

You the man GG. I will be slipping this nugget into many a future post.

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CoachDino's picture

May 12, 2021 at 07:34 pm

Love that it referenced a well written research paper. Done many myself, hence the analytical outlook and process driven conclusions that go on and on, that I post.

Good stuff but not quite as statistically driven to allow for high confidence. The author points this out and seems well aware of the strengths and weaknesses of the conclusions and how he/she came to them.

That said it really shouldn't be hard to just look at all draft picks over a range grade them (Heck PFF does that for you now at a very high level) in some defined fashion and run them through a ranking and correlation statistical tool.

Ok, I'm stopping before I get carried away. Once again kudos to the author for the time and effort and though I agree with him that the population wasn't large enough to obtain a high confidence level it still gives some insights into what might be.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 13, 2021 at 04:57 am

The study naturally piqued my interest. Not enough work shown to really get into how much confidence should be given to it. I'd say the student needed a new random generator. Getting the 92nd and 96th picks as the random sample for rounds 3-7 in 2012 looks suspicious to me (T.Y. Hilton and Chris Givens).

For 2008, the supposedly random generator alit on Pierre Garcon (pick 205) who was the best of the 25 3rd-7th rounders selected. Harry Douglas at pick 84 in the third round was the third best WR in rounds 3-7.

For 2009, Mike Wallace at pick 84 was the second best WR taken in the whole draft that year and was the best of the 26 WRs taken in rounds 3-7 per this study's parameters (Edelman was probably better overall). The other 3-7 rounder selected was the third best of those 26 possibilities. Of the eight first and second rounders selected, the generator fell on a guy who only played 38 games in 5 seasons due to injury, and Maclin, a pretty good receiver, but not as good as Wallace.

For 2012, the random generator again lit on the best WR taken in rounds 3-7, TY Hilton, out of 24 possibilities. Hilton was the best WR taken in that entire draft. Chris Given at 96 flamed out after a pretty good rookie year. The nine first rounders were a bad crop, with the best being Alshon Jeffrey followed by perhaps Michael Floyd. 4 of the 9 were decent but 8 of the 9 underwhelmed or were bad. 6 of the 23 third to seventh rounders were at least decent (three were good) while 15 of them were awful.

The generator picked the best WR selected in rounds 3-7 in 2008, 2009, and 2012. No work shown for 2010 and 2011.

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murf7777's picture

May 13, 2021 at 07:35 am

Ask Vic.....dime a dozen...lol

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HankScorpio's picture

May 13, 2021 at 08:11 am

If you break down what the Packers did at WR in each 50 pick segment since the start of the Wolf era, the obvious sweet spot is picks 51-100. I suppose that is not all that shocking on its surface. But the degree to which they seemingly can't miss is pretty darn high. And the failure rate everywhere else is equally striking, IMO.

Picks 1-50: Javon Walker. Jordy Nelson, Robert Ferguson

51-100: Greg Jennings, Davante Adams, Derrick Mayes, Terrance Murphy, Robert Brooks, Randall Cobb, James Jones, Amari Rodgers, Antonio Freeman, Ty Montgomery.

101-150: Corey Rodgers, Anthony Lucas, Orlando McKay, J'Mon Moore, Terry Mickens, Corey Bradford

150-200: Joey Jamison, David Clowney, Trevor Davis, Jay Kearney, Charlie Simmons, MVS, DeAngelo Yancy, Jared Abbrederis, Bill Schroeder, Craig Bragg, Dee Miller

200+: ESB, Chris Miller, Donald Driver, Charles Johnson, Brett Swain, Kevin Dorsey, Jeff Janis, Charles Lee, Malachi Dupre, DeAndrew Rubin, Carl Ford

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HankScorpio's picture

May 12, 2021 at 04:42 pm

Day 1 picks are a silly standard. Day 2 guys are a perfectly reasonable way to add pass catching help. The Packers have been at the bottom of the barrel in terms of day 1-2 picks at WR since Davante Adams in 2014. They finally took a swing this year. They need to continue next year. Not for Rodgers. Not for Love. For the team.

6 points
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ricky's picture

May 12, 2021 at 04:44 pm

As always, it's not where a guy is drafted, or even whether he is drafted. It only matters if he can play at an elite NFL level. Examples include fifth rounder Aaron Jones, fourth rounder Bakhtiari and fifth rounder Linsley. Can they produce on the field? Can they stay healthy and improve as they get more experience? That is what counts.

4 points
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greengold's picture

May 12, 2021 at 08:36 pm

James Jones R3 in 2007... and THE DOUBLE D!!! Donald Driver from 1999’s R7. Antonio Freeman was R3 in 1995. Robert Brooks R3 in 1992.

Hmmm. That’s a lot of proven Packers WR talent. Every one of them with Super Bowl rings.

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 13, 2021 at 05:28 am

What I thought I saw while skimming through the draft was an attempt in the first round to hit a home run. Big, really fast guys with excellent college production types tend to go in the first round. The second and third rounds can be that, but not nearly so much. Then some H/W/S flyers really late.

Jones: 4.57 forty
Jennings: 4.47 - fine route-runner in college
Nelson: 4.51
Cobb: 4.45 but shorter and specific type of WR
Adams: 4.56
Freeman: No stats, I guess. Didn't seem like a burner.
Robert Brooks: 4.64 expected to run faster.

1 points
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Rudedawg67's picture

May 12, 2021 at 05:49 pm

Anyone who follows the Pack knows the have had great success in the 2nd round choosing receivers. No news there. Third round success I guess is in the eyes of the beholder. If you don’t count Ty Montgomery and Kyle Fackrell a success, you have to go all the way back to 2010 and Morgan Burnett has a next third rounder that had any kind of contribution to the team. The last 4 third round picks have contributed next to nothing. Joshua Deguara, Jake Sternberger, Owen Burks and Montravius Adams. I think it was a mistake giving up our first fourth round pick in order to trade up seven spots to get Rogers. If you look at the teams that were in front of Green Bay there was a very good chance he was going to be there anyway. We know Minnesota in Pittsburgh did need a receiver. Houston was looking for somebody with some size and they already had Randall Cobb. Cleveland wanted some speed and they got exactly what they wanted in Anthony Schwartz. Most likely meaning Amari Rogers would still be there. But people say if the guy you like is there go out and him. And I don’t mind the pick I just thought giving up a fourth wasn’t a good idea.

2 points
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HankScorpio's picture

May 13, 2021 at 07:39 am

"people say if the guy you like is there go out and him. And I don’t mind the pick I just thought giving up a fourth wasn’t a good idea."

Gute's yarn to justify it the utterly ridiculous overpayment to move up was that he was looking at Amari in the 2nd and Myers won out. So Myers value was 62 (where he was picked), making Rodgers 63 in Gute's mind. But obviously none of the teams picking 63-84 saw it that same way. Amari's real world value was 85th best player. That is where he was picked. He's a player not a number and his play will determine if he's undervalued at 63 or over-valued at 163. Or anything in between.

What we do know from analysis of draft pick value is that Gute should have given up a 5th, not a 4th. It's a fine line between confidence and bravado. Gute's on the wrong side of it for my tastes. It's about understanding of how to work the draft. I don't claim to know more than Gute. But I have observed how successful guys like Wolf and TT did it. And he does not share much in common with them that I can see. It's happened enough that I would not mind a change.

-2 points
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CoachDino's picture

May 14, 2021 at 01:53 pm

Hank,, come on my guy be intellectually honest.

Saying "if you like a guy go and get him" is fine but it can't be used as a "given" when evaluating where A GM (Gute) picks a guy. So many factors
How much draft capital do you have?
Probability of them being there after 50% more picks?
How much do you like him?
How many players do you like almost as much?
Need?
What else do you need and how do those positionsplayers/picks playout in the scenario?

Then just the 4th instead of a 5th is wrong as well.
Its a 33 pt trade value. the Packers gave up the 4th (38) their 5th was worth (20).

The team initiating the trade usually pays more. In this case 5. Which is pretty much the vale of the last Pick in the 6th rd.

2 points
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greengold's picture

May 14, 2021 at 03:10 pm

Whoah, Hank. I think you are off base, by a lot.

Like JerseyAl, I have followed Athlon for draft info and rankings since the days you could only get it in print. They are a trusted source.

From the Athlon Top 100 Rankings:
41. CB Eric Stokes
57. C Josh Myers
72. WR Amari Rodgers

Not saying any of this is gospel, but Amari Rodgers was very highly thought of. He was the #2 player on Mel Kiper's Best Available board when Josh Myers was chosen by the Packers at #62, which kind of corroborates what Gutekunst said he felt regarding Amari's slotting. I think Kiper is a douche, but... he gets his best info for slotting players to build his own brand, for decades now, from trusted sources.

Going and getting your players sometimes means, yeah, take Eric Stokes with the 29 if you like him that much, because you're NOT going to get him at 62, and you DON'T have the draft capital to trade into the high 30's, low 40s if you choose someone else at 29. You may have the capital, but it could prove cost prohibitive.

Trading 135 for a chance to move up for Amari Rodgers from 92 to 85 seemed reasonable to me. You're talking a 33 pt. value to move up. GB giving up the 135 was worth 38.5 pts. Do you want to make the trade or not? You're on the clock... if you want it.

That's the way deals get done. I didn't see anything wrong with it.

Personally, I was VERY HAPPY with who he chose, and that it was his only trade. The bottom of our roster needed turning over. There is a lot of dead weight there that will be sloughed off at roster cuts. Many of those players were on STs, and that was a part of our game that needed focused retooling with later round picks (Jean-Charles, McDuffie and Hill). UDFAs Gaither & Uphoff should really help there too.

1 points
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jeremyjjbrown's picture

May 12, 2021 at 06:17 pm

Packers are reportedly signing Bortles.

Playoff wins since 2017
Blake Bortles: 2
Aaron Rodgers: 2

:p

5 points
7
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greengold's picture

May 13, 2021 at 05:54 am

woah.

Take a burn, Aaron Rodgers. Take a burn.

2 points
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Bernie0722's picture

May 13, 2021 at 10:08 am

Would Jordy. Randall, Davante, etc been as good without Aaron?

2 points
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greengold's picture

May 13, 2021 at 11:43 am

Flip the script. Jordy and Cobb's Catch% was above 60% for their entire careers. Well above. James Jones had between 51-70% during his Packers days. Jordy and Cobb were riding roughly 70% as a mean in the glory years.
Greg Jennings was roughly in Jones' territory.

Davante started in the 50's for a couple seasons, then low 60s, climbing to 65% 2018 and 2019, then had a breakout 77% last season.

Randall Cobb had 80% as a rookie, and 77% his 2nd season... Jordy strung together 70% + in 3 of his first 4 seasons in GB.

Would Aaron Rodgers have been as good without Jordy, Randall, Davante, etc???

I'm not taking anything away from Aaron Rodgers. They all grew together to produce big numbers. Davante grew right along with them, and more so after they left. Aaron Rodgers can throw the rock. There is no question.

Just found this interesting.

0 points
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PewAuKeeFan's picture

May 13, 2021 at 04:01 pm

Statistics, statistics...

Maybe there are less Pro Bowl WRs drafted from the 1st round simply because there are less WRs drafted in the 1st round?

1 points
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PhantomII's picture

May 13, 2021 at 05:27 pm

And normally crappy teams drafting them who don't have an OL to protect the normally lesser QB long enough for them to complete a pass before they throw an INT or get sacked. Nobody get's MVP without a lot of other players doing their job along with his......I don't hear much bragging about blocking or coaches scheming people open or crowd noise being at a minimum in notoriously noisy stadiums that helped immensely.

0 points
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